Are some trying to Kill blu-ray in favor of Downloads? [Text View] - Page 3

2Channel

01-12-08, 01:32 AM

I'm going to leave names out of this, with respect to forum rules, but it looks very clear to me that certain, consistently vocal HD DVD supporters/insiders are spreading FUD about blu-ray, even though it is clear that the tide has turned. One insider has even, overtly mentioned downloads in his more recent posts as the obvious choice going forward.

I imagine most will turn around with time, but it probably helps to give up the forums to let this go. Too much animosity on all sides of this fight. Personally I'll go with a universal player (or HTPC), but I'm not in a rush. The new HP Slimline S3330F HTPC with universal playback looks cool.

It now appears that the theories that Microsoft may have been playing Toshiba and the HD DVD Group all along, could turn out to be true.

Boy, don't tell that to the Microsoft folks I spent time with at CES. They were not happy about the Warner decision. Did Microsoft do something to handicap HD DVD?

Personally I could see myself doing some downloading, but I certainly do not want HDM to go away as Microsoft surely does.

I feel bad for the Microsoft folks reading this. It's bad enough to deal with the last minute loss of Warner when they thought they had won Warner. This just adds insult to injury.

Hopefully we will no longer be duped by the postings of these thinly-veiled, HDM Assassins!

Is this how you want to reach out and bridge the red and blue divide?

darinp2

01-12-08, 01:54 AM

Do you think the PS3 will remain viable post blu-ray as a download machine?I know you didn't ask me, but I think a person who bought a PS3 around the beginning of 2006 for $499 or $599, or a PS3 later for $399 or $499 will end up with something that not only plays BDs and gets upgraded with new features related to Blu-ray (got working 1080p24 before the XA2 I had, now got upgraded to PiP, and will most likely get updated to 2.0 and maybe other new features related to Blu-ray with time), but will also have a machine that can be used for downloads. Basically, I think PS3 owners will be able to choose between downloads and HD on discs, without even buying a new box. Still one of the best bargains I have ever gotten IMO. Oh, and it plays games and can be used to play downloaded movie trailers from PSN at the moment, along with playing DIVX encodes.

I haven't upgraded the drives in my 2 PS3s, but if/when Sony starts a download service which includes HD, I might. Although I expect BDs to have higher image quality overall and that I will tend toward those.

I also believe that downloads should get their own forum. Away from the Blu-ray forum(s), just like satellite is now.

--Darin

2Channel

01-12-08, 02:00 AM

I know you didn't ask me, but I think a person who bought a PS3 around the beginning of 2006 for $499 or $599, or a PS3 later for $399 or $499 will end up with something that no only plays BDs and gets upgraded with new features related to Blu-ray (got working 1080p24 before the XA2 I had, now got upgraded to PiP, and will most likely get updated to 2.0 and maybe other new features related to Blu-ray with time), but will also have a machine that can be used for downloads. Basically, I think PS3 owners will be able to choose between downloads and HD on discs, without even buying a new box. Still one of the best bargains I have ever gotten IMO. Oh, and it plays games and can be used to play downloaded movie trailers from PSN at the moment, along with playing DIVX encodes.

I haven't upgraded the drives in my 2 PS3s, but if/when Sony starts a download service which includes HD, I might. Although I expect BDs to have higher image quality overall and that I will tend toward those.

I also believe that downloads should get their own forum. Away from the Blu-ray forum(s), just like satellite is now.

--Darin

Agreed. The PS3 is a bargain, and at CES they apparently had profile 2.0 software on one of them (still in beta, no release date).

Tes7769

01-12-08, 06:39 AM

Like it or not Direct Download is where ALL media distribution and sales is going to end up.For the producer and the consumer it will end up being 1.fastest2.most reliable3.most cost effective etc.,etc..Noone is also trying to "KILL" BluRay, though it will eventually lose to DD in the end.Most hightech companies favor DD over any other form of media sales and know it's only a matter of time before DD becomes the most affordable and readily available method of distribution/sales.As with any process, it will be take time, though i doubt even BR is going to have time to penetrate the market even close to the way dvd did, before it's natural replacement came along.

It's funny that some seem to think companies like MS have a favorite "physical" HD format when in all reality they want BluRay and HD-DVD to kill each other off and take their time doing so.While that's happening broadband speeds are getting faster and bb itself is getting more affordable, going into more and more homes every day.

fozziwig

01-12-08, 06:52 AM

Given that downloads will be achieving 'near' DVD quality then the format that is under threat from downloads is DVD.

Blu-ray offers significantly higher quality over DVD so if downloads evolve rapidly we will see the DVD market collapse first, followed by Blu-ray.

I highly doubt that will happen. Downloads will be there as one more option for consumers to consider (alongside VOD, broadcast TV, rental etc.). But it will never overcome the human desire to own a physical product.

donthetech

01-12-08, 09:05 AM

It's no conspiracy
It's not "I lost so everyone else should too"
Business analysts, Internet and software companies and Hollywood Studios predicted from the very onset of this war that regardless of the victor, the existence of both could be very short due to the coming emergence of digital distribution.
The same talk would be going on if Warner switched the other way.

Let me start by saying, I want HD optical media to continue, so though I'm currently HD DVD only, I intend to get a BD player as soon as a final profile is available for $250 or less.

Having said that, as stated above it's been a well known fact among various businesses affiliated with home video that the future is digital distribution and several of those entities are putting their full resources behind being the first to offer what will be the delivery system of choice.

The comments you've seen recently by various members are comments regarding that talk. It's spiked now due to uncertainty about the future of HD discs due to the Warner switch, but is not part of a grand conspiracy to do in Blu-ray because HD DVD lost.

If you actually read some of the posts as opposed to simply rejecting them all as conspired attacks, you'll find quite a few are well informed and insightful.

As AV nuts and Early adopters, our eyes have been completely focused on HD discs as the future of home video. The Hollywood Studios and various software companies haven't had such a narrow vision.

And even Warner is exploring digital distribution.....In fact I know personally a theater in my area that no longer receives their movies via film stock....they are delivered digitally via satellite......

Everdog

01-12-08, 09:56 AM

So after reading through this thread I guess we can all agree, yes almost everyone is trying to kill off blu-ray in favor of DD. Comcast, Warner, Apple, Google, Yahoo, WM, etc.

Seems like a good idea. Thanks to Sketcha for coming up with it. Finally an idea we can all get behind!

bombzombie

01-12-08, 09:57 AM

We'll all be ready for this by 2012 when it actually shows up.

In the year 2008, however?

I just did it last night. :-) It was a clean looking 1080i with Dolby Digital sound. It is already being done. And everybody around the TV watching the movie was like, wow you can download it in HD! :p

Sorry my friend, but nobody out of the 10 except me knew the difference...they just didn't know or care.

bombzombie

01-12-08, 10:01 AM

@bombzombie

Got any pics of your 11.2 setup? Is it 5 across the front and 6 across the back?

No pics....just bought a new house 3 months ago and still getting everything installed....all hardwood floors seemed great the time for both upstair and downstairs...now, what a pain since I bought a finished home which was only wired for 5.1!!! :-)

markrubin

01-12-08, 10:05 AM

We used to have a stickey on this forum for Downloads but it seems to have been deleted.

Maybe the Mods can resurect it.

it is here: just unstuck

http://www.avsforum.com/avs-vb/showthread.php?t=874782&highlight=downloads

When I started this thread, many objected to its being in the HD Media forum: but I think it is ripe for discussion

bombzombie

01-12-08, 10:24 AM

ehaser

01-12-08, 11:02 AM

Is this desire what has caused people to purchase billions, yes billions of songs on Itunes? :)

Have fun carrying around your 52" LCD and HD Box to watch all those movies you downloaded. Get my point?

Lee Stewart

01-12-08, 11:05 AM

Have fun carrying around your 52" LCD and HD Box to watch all those movies you downloaded. Get my point?

Nope:

http://i181.photobucket.com/albums/x66/LeeAStewart/Glasses.jpg

wco81

01-12-08, 11:09 AM

Yeah you'll get real good quality with those goggles.

And people are going to be watching full-length movies on the go.:rolleyes:

ehaser

01-12-08, 11:09 AM

Ok, Lee tell that J6P is going to buy into that, but BD is a niche market.

bombzombie

01-12-08, 11:12 AM

Have fun carrying around your 52" LCD and HD Box to watch all those movies you downloaded. Get my point?

As my HD box gets smaller and smaller, I'll gladly carry around that IPOD like device. Many already do. :)

Your point does not make much sense. The question is how are you going to carry around 25 or 30 Blu-Rays??I'll throw a 1TB drive in my backpack with 50 movies on it and still have plenty of room left over.

Too many people are stuck envisioning massive cable settop boxes. The future delivery systems are not nearly so restrictive.

Further, I would like to combat why there is a discussion of such intensity within the HDTV software media discussion thread:

There has been some tangential discussion of whether digital downloading belongs in the HDTV software media discussion forum. It does.

The discussion of media inherently encompasses not only HD-DVD, BD, HDDs, and flash discs it also covers the perview of going media-less. Why? Because when software was first developed it was it was not tied to the media. The software was simply code which when run could perform a function. So what is the function....it is the display of media. Any method of performing such display should therefore be fair game. It is especially true where media has become constrained by software to a format medium. The only entity which benefits from such a restriction is the proprieter of the restrictive medium. This restriction limits the consumers freedom and the freedom of other providers of software (content providers) from having the most efficient method of transmission of their software.

In the end, the best system is medium neutral where the software standard is set, well-defined and offers opportunity for enhancement without restriction. Please discuss.

ehaser

01-12-08, 11:22 AM

Lee Stewart

01-12-08, 11:23 AM

Yeah you'll get real good quality with those goggles.

And people are going to be watching full-length movies on the go.:rolleyes:

If you are physically moving - then no - you can't use them. But we all knew that;)

Currently there are no HD "goggles" that are available to the public. But that doesn't mean that there can't be. The image size can be 60" - as though you were on the couch watching a 60" image from the proper distance.

And we do have a delivery system for the HD content. The Laptop PC.

I don't know about you, but I would much rather see a 60" image being comfortable, as opposed to watching a 17" image from 2 feet away.;)

bombzombie

01-12-08, 11:40 AM

Those companies aren't going to allow you to download and watch their movies on anything but their box. You can carry around you hard drive in your backpack but you won't be able to watch them anywhere.

Then they will get there codes hacked just like MP3s were ripped. The younger generation will not be stoppped. The writing is on the wall...either get on the train or get run over.

Those are the options. I'm not advocating stealing but what I am saying is that the customer is starting to dictate business models...even Apple now offers DRM free music.

Calamus

01-12-08, 11:43 AM

Originally Posted by Calamus
I hope I live long enough to see that. People talk about whats here now, but the latest estimate on Internet connected homes in NA is 237,168,545 - thats a lot of fiber transceivers and new set top boxes to make and a lot of cable electronics to drive it all with to replace. It really doesn't matter about fiber, its there and good to go, but the electronics to connect it all is brand new and there is not much of it.

It took Toshiba two years to get 1,000,000 boxes out there. If we can get 23,700,000 boxes a year (23 times the number of HD-DVD players created in two years) it would only take 10 years to reach 100% market penetration (provided no additional growth) if we start right now.

It's so amusing to see people saying over and over ITS AVAILABLE NOW when they mean it's POSSIBLE NOW to start in small test communities of like 30,000 people. These numbers are HUGE and so is NA. THINK about it.

FIOS subscriptions stood at 700,000+ at the end of September, having grown 39% in one quarter. The bandwidth available is huge for video delivery, including of course regular live channel delivery, but also IPTV based VOD. Since the VOD is based on the MoCA standard, which specifies 100 MBit/s delivery, FIOS has to deliver that functionality right now. Three streams are provided currently: 155MBit/s, 622MBit/s, 870MHz for regular video delivery. These will be expanded to 1.2GBits/s, 2.4GBits/s when Verizon upgrades the infrastructure to GPON.

One thing that has sped up the installations is the ability to spool the fiber around existing Verizon telco lines, making the physical deployment much easier.

Given the pricing schemes for FIOS, yes, PPV VOD is available (soon) at 1080i / 5.1, but a lot of free VOD content is also available as is subscription based content: I subscribe to HBO, I get HBO movies, comedy... VOD as an added benefit. I can also record movies available on high bit rate channels like HDNet movies.

All of this is available now or soon (HD VOD is on beta, to be released this month, supposedly), my kids have been hitting the VOD pretty hard.

Look, I will probably buy a Blu-ray player when they become more affordable, I have an HD DVD player in a Toshiba laptop which I connect pretty easily, so I have a few HD DVD's, so I intend to get some form of tangible media, but with Tivos, other DVR's and CableCard PC's, you have the reality of many people collecting HD (lite if you like) in an immediately accessible way. It's not as far away as it seemed.

I'm glad to see FIOS is growing and would love to have it at my home now, but thats not going to happen anytime soon and I live in a small metro area. While 700000 is a large number its less than HD-DVD's installed base and about the size of the small metro area I live in. Thats also about 1/11th the population of New York and a far cry from reaching the total number of internet connected homes in NA that is 237,168,545. I'm not denying high speed systems are on the way, but I don't see it getting anywhere close to 100% perntration of 237 million homes for years (I'm going with 10 years as my guess).

vurbano

01-12-08, 11:45 AM

if they can tell me when i can get 1080p24 downloads with lossless audio i'll be happy to listen. not interested in anything less. we have all that now with HDM.This could be it
http://www.xstreamhd.com/press.html

30XS955 User

01-12-08, 11:51 AM

Everdog

01-12-08, 12:27 PM

And even Warner is exploring digital distribution.....In fact I know personally a theater in my area that no longer receives their movies via film stock....they are delivered digitally via satellite......

So does anyone think that Warner (who is also one of the largest cable companies) will really want people to pick Blu-ray over DD and VOD?

Wait about a year, they will join Sketcha in his quest to "Kill blu-ray in favor of Downloads".

griffon2k

01-12-08, 12:43 PM

Those companies aren't going to allow you to download and watch their movies on anything but their box. You can carry around you hard drive in your backpack but you won't be able to watch them anywhere.

That's funny, because I have hundreds of songs and albums on my external hard drive that I can play on my two media extenders at home (a 360 and a Linksys), an iPOD and Zune that my wife and I take on trips and to the gym, my Nintendo DS (thanks to a hard drive accesory for it)and they can be burned to a CD or DVD and played in their respective players.

I doubt videos will be any different if the studios and networks wish to make money off of them. And they do.

DD is not nearly as restrictive as many lead on.

griffon2k

01-12-08, 12:49 PM

So does anyone think that Warner (who is also one of the largest cable companies) will really want people to pick Blu-ray over DD and VOD?

Wait about a year, they will join Sketcha in his quest to "Kill blu-ray in favor of Downloads".

They may have already made that decision. Given the fact they promised everyone that they had no plans or intentions to move beyond neutral support and then broke that promise,no one really has any reason to believe their support of Blu-ray has a long term vision.

In fact, given their public statements that they felt both formats fell short of expectations last year, no one has any reason to believe their support will extend beyond 08.

Time will have to tell.

griffon2k

01-12-08, 01:01 PM

Blu ray has a bright future. If you think the public is unwilling to pay $300 up for a Blu ray player, wait until you try to sell them $500 or greater worth of hardware which requires subscription fees and ultra high-speed broadband for a film they don't actually own and has no transportability. It's nowhere close to viable. By the time downloads are ready on HD for the majority of the public, BD will be $50 for hardware and movies will be $5 each at Walmart.

That's just the thing. You don't have to ask them to buy anything. Most people already have computers in their home and a growing number have wired or wireless networks. A very large number already rent HD and HD/DVR receivers from their cable/sat/fiber provider that they write off as part of the service. CEMs as we speak are adding wireless connectivity to HDTVs.

All of these devices allow for use of DD in some form. Computers will allow downloaded film that will likely be burnable and/or will be able to be streamed over a home wireless network to an extender, slingbox or wireless TV. Cable receivers/settops will allow for VOD.

Less space to take up with disc cases. Can be watched on any TV in the home with a network connection.

Convenience is an extremely strong marketing point.

edgebsl

01-12-08, 01:13 PM

it is here: just unstuck

http://www.avsforum.com/avs-vb/showthread.php?t=874782&highlight=downloads

When I started this thread, many objected to its being in the HD Media forum: but I think it is ripe for discussion

Mark, you are my hero!

p0tempkin

01-12-08, 03:12 PM

In fact, given their public statements that they felt both formats fell short of expectations last year, no one has any reason to believe their support will extend beyond 08.
I will guarantee anybody here that WB will be supporting Blu-Ray day and date past 2008. If you want to put money on this wager, I'd be happy to.

p0tempkin

01-12-08, 03:22 PM

That's just the thing. You don't have to ask them to buy anything. Most people already have computers in their home and a growing number have wired or wireless networks.
The quality of most home computers in the US barely allows for smooth DVD quality playback; a small percentage have the processing power or hardware necessary to decode high-quality HDM.

A very large number already rent HD and HD/DVR receivers from their cable/sat/fiber provider that they write off as part of the service. CEMs as we speak are adding wireless connectivity to HDTVs.
It is expected that cable/satellite television providers will increase their HD PPV offerings. So far, none have announced a purchase-to-own model; we're only seeing $6 24-hour rentals of average quality HDM. Waiting for mass-market penetration of new HDTVs with built-in WiFi or media streaming capability will take years.

All of these devices allow for use of DD in some form. Computers will allow downloaded film that will likely be burnable and/or will be able to be streamed over a home wireless network to an extender, slingbox or wireless TV. Cable receivers/settops will allow for VOD.
Again, you're assuming the market penetration of DVD recorders is sufficiently high, and that people behind the technology curve would find it more convenient to download and author their own discs. Streaming would require set-top hardware to be purchased. Cable/satellite PPV might take off for the rental market if they remove the high pricing and limited rental period.

Convenience is an extremely strong marketing point.
What is more convenient than sticking a disc in the tray, and hitting play? Even polls on AVS (where people are ahead of the technology curve) show a significant number of people (70%+) who prefer physical media to digital options. Imagine what J6P, behind the curve, would prefer?

Lee Stewart

01-12-08, 03:30 PM

I will guarantee anybody here that WB will be supporting Blu-Ray day and date past 2008. If you want to put money on this wager, I'd be happy to.

Sure . . . . as long as we make an equally balanced bet where I say they will sell more HDTV's in 2008 then they did in 2007:rolleyes:

Lee Stewart

01-12-08, 03:35 PM

p0tempkin posted:
What is more convenient than sticking a disc in the tray, and hitting play? Even polls on AVS (where people are ahead of the technology curve) show a significant number of people (70%+) who prefer physical media to digital options. Imagine what J6P, behind the curve, would prefer?

Where did the disc come from? Did you have to leave the house to get it at a B&M?

Did you use your PC in conjunction with some website - order it and then have to wait for it to be delivered?

If you own it - how many times have you seen it?

All issues that can be answered by both VOD and Downloads. Because many feel and the facts do bear up - that movie "buying" is an impulse buy.

Point and click - couldn't be any easier. But again - not for everyone. Could be 50/50 - buy a movie versus just watch a movie.

RealEstateWagon

01-12-08, 03:36 PM

I'm going to leave names out of this, with respect to forum rules, but it looks very clear to me that certain, consistently vocal HD DVD supporters/insiders are spreading FUD about blu-ray, even though it is clear that the tide has turned. One insider has even, overtly mentioned downloads in his more recent posts as the obvious choice going forward.

If you don't like people that are against HDM you can point fingers at CEOs of Sony and Panasonic etc, cause they are obviously against HDM if you count HD DVD as such.

It now appears that the theories that Microsoft may have been playing Toshiba and the HD DVD Group all along, could turn out to be true.

Personally I could see myself doing some downloading, but I certainly do not want HDM to go away as Microsoft surely does.

Hopefully we will no longer be duped by the postings of these thinly-veiled, HDM Assassins!

Not only Microsoft, Seagate's Bill Watkins sees physical media as being another "pony express" going away, from 15-16 min and forward http://www.podtech.net/home/1553/seagates-ceo-talks-about-hard-drive-business

JAC6

01-12-08, 03:41 PM

Getting back to the OP, the notion that the average poster at AVS has any impact whatsover on whether downloads kill Blu-Ray is amusing. Particularly since the Moderators have given us great leeway in the wake of this Warner decision, which has led to countless redundant and pointless threads and numerous uninformed posts. Even if there were some diamonds in the rough, its virtually impossible to find anything on AVS since the announcement. Once things calm down, more enlightened and civil discussions will happen and those will be interesting.

krawhitham

01-12-08, 03:44 PM

markrubin

01-12-08, 03:50 PM

Once things calm down, more enlightened and civil discussions will happen and those will be interesting.

Thank you

Everdog

01-12-08, 04:34 PM

They may have already made that decision. Given the fact they promised everyone that they had no plans or intentions to move beyond neutral support and then broke that promise,no one really has any reason to believe their support of Blu-ray has a long term vision.

In fact, given their public statements that they felt both formats fell short of expectations last year, no one has any reason to believe their support will extend beyond 08.

Time will have to tell.

The guys up in the Warner ivory tower is now saying...
"bwaahahaha! One down and one to go. Everything is going according to plan. Soon Time Warner will rule the world!!"

30XS955 User

01-12-08, 04:36 PM

Not only Microsoft, Seagate's Bill Watkins sees physical media as being another "pony express" going away, from 15-16 min and forward http://www.podtech.net/home/1553/seagates-ceo-talks-about-hard-drive-business

The same guy who said that his company's main customers were porn enthusiasts. I guess he's right in a way that downloads are the future.

We should take his opinions with a grain of salt.

griffon2k

01-12-08, 05:24 PM

The quality of most home computers in the US barely allows for smooth DVD quality playback; a small percentage have the processing power or hardware necessary to decode high-quality HDM.

With the average price of both Desktops and Laptops down to where they are now, I don't see the problem. I can watch 720p trailers on a 1 1/2 year old Emachines when hooked up to an LCD monitor.

It is expected that cable/satellite television providers will increase their HD PPV offerings. So far, none have announced a purchase-to-own model; we're only seeing $6 24-hour rentals of average quality HDM. Waiting for mass-market penetration of new HDTVs with built-in WiFi or media streaming capability will take years.

Quality is subjective. While I agree that the quality of HD discs is better than the current quality of HD VOD, according to the response to HD VOD offerings with service providers and Xbox Live Video Marketplace, to many consumers it's HD and it's enough. I spoke about WiFi and Media Center TVs because some are already on the market and more are to come. We're still at low but growing numbers for HDTV adoption. We'll get there. Media extenders and wireless routers are right now.

Purchase to own already exists for some PC VOD download services. It will come eventually come to other DD models as the studios are ready.

Again, you're assuming the market penetration of DVD recorders is sufficiently high, and that people behind the technology curve would find it more convenient to download and author their own discs. Streaming would require set-top hardware to be purchased. Cable/satellite PPV might take off for the rental market if they remove the high pricing and limited rental period.

DVD recorders are easy to find in the market and can be found for pretty good prices, but they aren't the only capture devices available. PVR cards for PCs are out there and TiVO HD DVRs are quite popular.

Cable On Demand is already taking off, and many media extenders and slingboxes are available now for less that a Blu-ray player, if you prefer that to renting a receiver from your cable/sat/fiber provider.

What is more convenient than sticking a disc in the tray, and hitting play? Even polls on AVS (where people are ahead of the technology curve) show a significant number of people (70%+) who prefer physical media to digital options. Imagine what J6P, behind the curve, would prefer?

I would argue that as most here are complete A/V nuts, we're an exception to the rule rather than mirror of J6P. Most of us have high spec, high priced equipment J6P won't batt an eye at.

Pointing and Clicking I would argue is probably more convenient than getting up, finding a disc, putting it in the tray, putting the case away and then hitting play, but to each their own.

J6P just wants the movies for the best price and most convenience. If VOD offers that to them, they'll take it.

Speculation is VOD has already started having an effect on disc sales. If that's true, what is to stop J6P from simply renting Spiderman 3 or Bourne Ultimatum on HD VOD instead of buying a Blu-ray player or HD DVD player and the discs?

My guess is there are already more people using VOD than have bought into Blu-ray or HD DVD.

edgebsl

01-12-08, 05:34 PM

My guess is there are already more people using VOD than have bought into Blu-ray or HD DVD.

In SD , maybe.

In HD no way.

aaronwt

01-12-08, 05:44 PM

I will guarantee anybody here that WB will be supporting Blu-Ray day and date past 2008. If you want to put money on this wager, I'd be happy to.

They are supporting BD right now Day and Date.:confused:
Why wouldn't they after 2008?

p0tempkin

01-12-08, 05:45 PM

They are supporting BD right now Day and Date.:confused:
I know, griffon was just spreading FUD about Warner not supporting Blu-Ray past 2008.

griffon2k

01-12-08, 06:05 PM

I know, griffon was just spreading FUD about Warner not supporting Blu-Ray past 2008.

FUD = speculation presented as fact.

Here's my actual post:

They may have already made that decision. Given the fact they promised everyone that they had no plans or intentions to move beyond neutral support and then broke that promise,no one really has any reason to believe their support of Blu-ray has a long term vision.

In fact, given their public statements that they felt both formats fell short of expectations last year, no one has any reason to believe their support will extend beyond 08.
Time will have to tell.

May is a speculative term, and I think I made pretty clear in that post that I was questioning our ability to take Warner at their word given their actions. I stand by that.

I also closed as saying time will have to tell, as in time will tell us whether Warner is really behind HDM or not.

I've said several times before that I prefer and will continue to buy HD discs. I have also said that once a final profile Blu-ray player is available for a price within my own needs, I'll pick one up, so I would kindly ask you not to imply that I'm someone with the childish intention of trying to lead people away from Blu-ray.

Though we may not agree on whether digital downloading is ready for the here and now, I do respect your posts and your opinion. I only ask that you do the same.

Calamus

01-12-08, 06:14 PM

Where did the disc come from? Did you have to leave the house to get it at a B&M?

Did you use your PC in conjunction with some website - order it and then have to wait for it to be delivered?

If you own it - how many times have you seen it?

All issues that can be answered by both VOD and Downloads. Because many feel and the facts do bear up - that movie "buying" is an impulse buy.

Point and click - couldn't be any easier. But again - not for everyone. Could be 50/50 - buy a movie versus just watch a movie.

So that begs the question of you and others here, do you own any DVD or HDM disc and if so, why?

Calamus

01-12-08, 06:17 PM

If you don't like people that are against HDM you can point fingers at CEOs of Sony and Panasonic etc, cause they are obviously against HDM if you count HD DVD as such.

Not only Microsoft, Seagate's Bill Watkins sees physical media as being another "pony express" going away, from 15-16 min and forward http://www.podtech.net/home/1553/seagates-ceo-talks-about-hard-drive-business

Just weird considering his company makes their livelyhood on physical media, at least the last time I installed a HD its was physical. Maybe they have made some advances that I am un aware of. :D

griffon2k

01-12-08, 06:23 PM

So that begs the question of you and others here, do you own any DVD or HDM disc and if so, why?

I own DVD and HD DVDs and will own Blu-ray. Why? Because I'm a collector so I like having the disc and cover art. I'm a sucker for special packaging as well.

Calamus

01-12-08, 06:23 PM

The guys up in the Warner ivory tower is now saying...
"bwaahahaha! One down and one to go. Everything is going according to plan. Soon Time Warner will rule the world!!"

Well, I pretty sure Sony won't do that anytime soon so I know which studios I will be supporting.

griffon2k

01-12-08, 06:26 PM

Well, I pretty sure Sony won't do that anytime soon so I know which studios I will be supporting.

Last I heard Sony was still working on a VOD service for the PlayStation Network. I'm pretty sure they'll have no problem putting their own titles on it, so in that sense I get the impression they're okay with digital distribution.

They could have changed their minds on that, but I haven't heard or read so.

Calamus

01-12-08, 06:33 PM

I own DVD and HD DVDs and will own Blu-ray. Why? Because I'm a collector so I like having the disc and cover art. I'm a sucker for special packaging as well.

Good to hear, and me too. I have no delusions about HDM ever being as big as DVD is/was, but I think it will be far from a niche market. Japan is lucky to have a physically small country (about the size of California) where it was relatively easy to upgrade their infrastructure and include everyone. For the people in this country in the sparse regions, they only have two options for HD, satellite and HDM. Until DD, POV, VOD, etc can reach them, then there will be room for HDM.

Lee Stewart

01-12-08, 06:51 PM

My guess is there are already more people using VOD than have bought into Blu-ray or HD DVD.

In SD , maybe.

In HD no way.

So you do not believe that there are more HD STB's with CBL then there are with HDM? 4.5 million HD players . . . .versus about 15 million CBL HD STB's is about he current count. And SAT is/will be making HD VOD (called On Demand) available to their subscribers.

Or are you confusing VOD with PPV?:confused:

Lee Stewart

01-12-08, 06:55 PM

So that begs the question of you and others here, do you own any DVD or HDM disc and if so, why?

Sure . . .I have a large DVD collection (450+) and a small collection of HD DVD (25). I also have a CBL HD DVR for access to HD content and HD VOD and HD PPV.

Why? Because that is what was and is available at this time . . . as a proven method of delivery.

I belong to neither NF nor BBI and any renting of movies - I get free - my local library has about 5000 DVD titles for rent - 5 days - no cost. Broward County, FL has an outstanding library system. The library is within walking distance of my home (less than 1 mile)

ssjLancer

01-12-08, 07:19 PM

griffon2k

01-12-08, 07:30 PM

The argument of Physical Media vs Rental Services seems pretty useless imo considering most people here are hardcore collectors.

2 completely different markets. If it wasnt do you think Sony would be working on VOD on the PS3?

Yes. If for no other reason than "futureproofing". I'm fairly certain Sony sees DD becoming big in the future and doesn't plan to be left out.

ssjLancer

01-12-08, 07:50 PM

If Sony saw the consumer asking themselves "Why buy Batman on Blu Ray when I can watch it cheaper from the PSN store?" theres no way they would be taking that route.
They obviously see both mediums growing in two different directions and not parasitizing off each other.

oztech

01-12-08, 07:54 PM

funny how some seem to think that every home that has a dvd player has cable or internet and i wish they did maybe most of us would get a price brake.

griffon2k

01-12-08, 08:03 PM

funny how some seem to think that every home that has a dvd player has cable or internet and i wish they did maybe most of us would get a price brake.

I don't think anyone here thinks everyone has cable and high speed interent. There is a pretty large number of people who do however.

griffon2k

01-12-08, 08:04 PM

Sketcha

01-13-08, 12:32 AM

I imagine most will turn around with time, but it probably helps to give up the forums to let this go. Too much animosity on all sides of this fight. Personally I'll go with a universal player (or HTPC), but I'm not in a rush. The new HP Slimline S3330F HTPC with universal playback looks cool.

Boy, don't tell that to the Microsoft folks I spent time with at CES. They were not happy about the Warner decision. Did Microsoft do something to handicap HD DVD?

I feel bad for the Microsoft folks reading this. It's bad enough to deal with the last minute loss of Warner when they thought they had won Warner. This just adds insult to injury.

Is this how you want to reach out and bridge the red and blue divide?

1. Glad to hear it, 2C.

2. I think it's clear their "support" could have been a little stronger. Maybe you know something the rest of us don't, but publicly, MS didn't exactly shed tears.

3. Why were MS public statements so cold then? They pretty much dropped HD DVD like a hot rock!

4. Certainly not! My angst in the OP was aimed at just a very few individuals. And to be honest, I wouldn't be upset if I never heard from them again.

And anyone who has THAT kind of hatred of SONY to boycott blu-ray just because HD DVD didn't win, is not worth my time either. They're entitled to their opinion, of course, but I'm also entitled to mine.

Do you believe that there is a similar animosity against Toshiba or the HD DVD group from blu boys? I am quite sure that if the tables were turned, a greater percentage of blus would take up the red cause.

You, of course are above all that as all of my good bros on here are. And you know I would do the same thing, but then how many smurfs own an A2 and NO BD player? ;)

Sketcha

01-13-08, 12:34 AM

I know you didn't ask me, but I think a person who bought a PS3 around the beginning of 2006 for $499 or $599, or a PS3 later for $399 or $499 will end up with something that not only plays BDs and gets upgraded with new features related to Blu-ray (got working 1080p24 before the XA2 I had, now got upgraded to PiP, and will most likely get updated to 2.0 and maybe other new features related to Blu-ray with time), but will also have a machine that can be used for downloads. Basically, I think PS3 owners will be able to choose between downloads and HD on discs, without even buying a new box. Still one of the best bargains I have ever gotten IMO. Oh, and it plays games and can be used to play downloaded movie trailers from PSN at the moment, along with playing DIVX encodes.

I haven't upgraded the drives in my 2 PS3s, but if/when Sony starts a download service which includes HD, I might. Although I expect BDs to have higher image quality overall and that I will tend toward those.

I also believe that downloads should get their own forum. Away from the Blu-ray forum(s), just like satellite is now.

--Darin
It's a thread, D. Asking one person a question like this is the same as asking anyone that can share a valid response.

Thanks!

Sketcha

01-13-08, 12:37 AM

Sketcha

01-13-08, 12:39 AM

Sketcha

01-13-08, 12:41 AM

Ok, Lee tell that J6P is going to buy into that, but BD is a niche market.

Oh this requires 3...

:D:D:D

Sketcha

01-13-08, 12:43 AM

Sketcha

01-13-08, 12:49 AM

If you don't like people that are against HDM you can point fingers at CEOs of Sony and Panasonic etc, cause they are obviously against HDM if you count HD DVD as such.

Not only Microsoft, Seagate's Bill Watkins sees physical media as being another "pony express" going away, from 15-16 min and forward http://www.podtech.net/home/1553/seagates-ceo-talks-about-hard-drive-business
I like Seagate. They're located in Scott's Valley near my last home in Santa Cruz. Not many can afford to operate a business on that kind of "real estate."

;)

To your point, the difference is, AFAIK, Seagate never claimed to support one or the other.

Sketcha

01-13-08, 12:50 AM

I would rather download than to give sony money
I appreciate your candor.

2Channel

01-13-08, 02:03 AM

1. Glad to hear it, 2C.

2. I think it's clear their "support" could have been a little stronger. Maybe you know something the rest of us don't, but publicly, MS didn't exactly shed tears.

3. Why were MS public statements so cold then. They pretty much dropped HD DVD like a hot rock!

4. Certainly not! My angst in the OP was aimed at just a very few individuals. And to be honest, I wouldn't be upset if I never heard from them again.

And anyone who has THAT kind of hatred of SONY to boycott blu-ray just because HD DVD didn't win, is not worth my time either. They're entitled to their opinion, of course, but I'm also entitled to mine.

Do you believe that there is a similar animosity against Toshiba or the HD DVD group from blu boys? I am quite sure that if the tables were turned, a greater percentage for blus would take up the red cause.

You, of course are above all that as all of my good bros on here are. And you know I would do the same thing, but then how many smurfs own an A2 and NO BD player? ;)

I got a chance to spend time with the Microsoft folks at CES. I think that with our Internet based world view we develop a distorted picture of how things are.

We think HD DVD = Microsoft becuase the folks at Microsoft understand the importance of reaching out to early adopters online. In particular, Amir has been a major part of that online pressence. We are constantly communicating with Microsoft people and begin to think of them as the heart and soul of HD DVD. In reality, they're not. They're an important partner, but the heart and sould of DVD and HD DVD is Toshiba, just as the heart and soul of Blu-ray is Sony.

We read about the Paramount and Dreamworks deal in the New York Times and read that it was Toshiba that cut a co-marketing deal where they would pay Paramount and Dreamworks $150 million for the use of Shrek characters in HD DVD commercials as part of the exclusivity deal. How many people refused to believe it was Toshiba and said it was Microsoft that paid this money? This was despite constant and repeated denials from Amir.

I'm not sure what statements you saw about Microsoft dropping HD DVD. What I know from CES is that all of the players involved with HD DVD had meetings regarding the future. It was gut check time, and apparently they've all decided they're in and supporting HD DVD. I talked to Kevin Collins and he made it clear that Microsoft is committed to supporting HD DVD. BTW, I wonder who floated all of those rumors to the press this week about Universal and Paramount going neutral (that the studios had to deny)?

The HD DVD folks are now working on their go forward strategy based on this significant setback. We may think it sounds crazy, but they are not out of options, and they're not quitting.

On this question.....

Do you believe that there is a similar animosity against Toshiba or the HD DVD group from blu boys? I am quite sure that if the tables were turned, a greater percentage for blus would take up the red cause.

I respectfully dissagree. I saw numerous posts on Blu-ray.com saying that if Warner went red, it would be the end of HDM. To them Blu-ray = HDM. Truly, there are many Blu-ray supporters who would not have bought into HD DVD if Warner had gone that way. They have a great deal of animosity toward HD DVD, but not so much Toshiba as Microsoft. Again, because of Microsoft's online participation, they see Microsoft as being the main company behind HD DVD and that is where they have focused their anger.

zBuff

01-13-08, 02:11 AM

We read about the Paramount and Dreamworks deal in the New York Times and read that it was Toshiba that cut a co-marketing deal where they would pay Paramount and Dreamworks $150 million for the use of Shrek characters in HD DVD commercials as part of the exclusivity deal. How many people refused to believe it was Toshiba and said it was Microsoft that paid this money? This was despite constant and repeated denials from Amir.

The fact that Microsoft did make a $500 million dollar deal with Viacom does dirty the waters somewhat.

2Channel

01-13-08, 02:20 AM

The fact that Microsoft did make a $500 million dollar deal with Viacom does dirty the waters somewhat.

Entirely different deal. As I've posted before, Apple, Microsoft and Sony all want to be the major players in the movie download market (and there are many others besides these three). Are movie downloads going to start to replace physical media? Not in the next five to seven years (in my opinion). However, they are all staking out their turf right now. If Microsoft and Sony did nothing right now, by the time bandwidth does get better some years down the road, they'll be too late. Apple will already have all the content in place and own the market.

voidchalice

01-13-08, 07:39 AM

there was an interview where Bill Gates did say that Bluray/HDDVD would be the last physical format...

would it be fair to say that all corporations are at least looking into this? ;)

Frank Jaeger-Fox

01-13-08, 07:56 AM

I like Seagate. They're located in Scott's Valley near my last home in Santa Cruz. Not many can afford to operate a business on that kind of "real estate."

I have driven past Seagate many times when i use to go over Highway 17 and yes it is a beautiful location in the woods.

SamwisetheBrave

01-13-08, 09:53 AM

I will guarantee anybody here that WB will be supporting Blu-Ray day and date past 2008. If you want to put money on this wager, I'd be happy to.

It may all depend upon how one interprets "supporting."

SamwisetheBrave

01-13-08, 10:04 AM

there was an interview where Bill Gates did say that Bluray/HDDVD would be the last physical format...

would it be fair to say that all corporations are at least looking into this? ;)

I think Bill Gates and others can say that with a great deal of confidence.
And if it's not true/ Well, there's no fines involved for guessing wrong!

interpol

01-13-08, 11:16 AM

I have driven past Seagate many times when i use to go over Highway 17 and yes it is a beautiful location in the woods.

Wasn't that complex previously owned by Borland?

Sketcha

01-13-08, 12:24 PM

I got a chance to spend time with the Microsoft folks at CES. I think that with our Internet based world view we develop a distorted picture of how things are.

We think HD DVD = Microsoft becuase the folks at Microsoft understand the importance of reaching out to early adopters online. In particular, Amir has been a major part of that online pressence. We are constantly communicating with Microsoft people and begin to think of them as the heart and soul of HD DVD. In reality, they're not. They're an important partner, but the heart and sould of DVD and HD DVD is Toshiba, just as the heart and soul of Blu-ray is Sony.

We read about the Paramount and Dreamworks deal in the New York Times and read that it was Toshiba that cut a co-marketing deal where they would pay Paramount and Dreamworks $150 million for the use of Shrek characters in HD DVD commercials as part of the exclusivity deal. How many people refused to believe it was Toshiba and said it was Microsoft that paid this money? This was despite constant and repeated denials from Amir.

I'm not sure what statements you saw about Microsoft dropping HD DVD. What I know from CES is that all of the players involved with HD DVD had meetings regarding the future. It was gut check time, and apparently they've all decided they're in and supporting HD DVD. I talked to Kevin Collins and he made it clear that Microsoft is committed to supporting HD DVD. BTW, I wonder who floated all of those rumors to the press this week about Universal and Paramount going neutral (that the studios had to deny)?

The HD DVD folks are now working on their go forward strategy based on this significant setback. We may think it sounds crazy, but they are not out of options, and they're not quitting.

On this question.....

Do you believe that there is a similar animosity against Toshiba or the HD DVD group from blu boys? I am quite sure that if the tables were turned, a greater percentage for blus would take up the red cause.

I respectfully dissagree. I saw numerous posts on Blu-ray.com saying that if Warner went red, it would be the end of HDM. To them Blu-ray = HDM. Truly, there are many Blu-ray supporters who would not have bought into HD DVD if Warner had gone that way. They have a great deal of animosity toward HD DVD, but not so much Toshiba as Microsoft. Again, because of Microsoft's online participation, they see Microsoft as being the main company behind HD DVD and that is where they have focused their anger.

Gates at CES (nice review, reuters quotes with regards to format war):

http://www.alleyinsider.com/2008/01/...o-no-news.html

Most useful is this pre-speech Q&A from Reuters, who did get Gates to at least address the HD DVD problem:

Warner Brothers said last week it was backing Blu-ray exclusively. Will Microsoft remain committed to the HD DVD format even if it appears that the media companies are backing Blu-ray?

"Certainly we supported both Blu-ray and HD DVD as Windows peripherals. The last announcement was Paramount opting for HD DVD and now this one is going the other way. I still think a format battle is going on there. Our contribution is the HDi Interactive format piece has been really well received. We hope to see that used broadly. I think the real competitor in the long run is digital (video) download. Just like in music, it is going to be the biggest of the three."

You kind of sound agnostic about the formats.

"No, not really. We have definitely worked with HD DVD in a very strong fashion. Our codecs and HDi are available on the other format and we are a leader in digital download so we have some involvement in all three approaches. In the long run, people don’t want physical media. You don’t say to yourself, what’s the format battle after CD. If someone tried to introduce a new music format, you’d laugh and say ‘well isn’t that my phone, my iPod and my Zune?’ And you’d be right!"

http://www.avsforum.com/avs-vb/showpost.php?p=12716845&postcount=66

I wouldn't exactly call that strong support.

Microsoft XBox could consider blu-ray support

"It should be consumer choice; and if that's the way they vote, that's something we'll have to consider," Albert Penello, group marketing manager for Xbox hardware said when asked whether Microsoft would support a Blu-ray DVD accessory in the event that HD-DVD failed.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20080108/tc_nm/show_xbox_dc_1

Of course this is good business, but not good rhetoric timing if they really support HD DVD.

There is more and I'm sure other members will be happy to help you out.

And those studio, rumor denials you spoke of...

The word "currently" was conspicuously present.
And the word "exclusive" was conspicuously absent.

Anyone remember Warner's words from December?

It's good we can respectfully agree to disagree on your last point. I'm sure blu-ray.com is full of haters. I don't know, I never visit that site.

From what I've heard on AVS, I still firmly believe... (Edited by mod request)... Of course we each have our centric viewpoints so either one of us could be right or wrong on this.

Now enjoy your Sunday and go watch a flick on blu-ray!

:)

Cuhulin

01-13-08, 12:51 PM

When Seagate moved to Scotts Valley, Santa Cruz (which is also where my last home was located), it was a reasonably inexpensive place.

Now, only a small portion is still located there.

But the Seagate point is a decent one, albeit one that has to recognize the pounding hooves of solid state media dropping prices rapidly too.

Ultimately, there are three types of uses and users, and each probably needs something different.

Immediate Renters, who want to watch the movie once now, and probably not again, are likely to go to download sources. It's too convenient for anything else to beat it, and I think it will drive improvements in infrastructure. (I think Netflix knows this, which is why they are working on download services, getting included in set top boxes, and so on.)

Time-shift renters, who see a movie, think they want to watch it later tonight or tomorrow, are probably also headed to downloads, but not as quickly, as Netflix does this well. Magnetic read-write media are perfect for those who download, who can keep 7-10 movies in a library to be watched as time permits.

Collectors, who want a large available collection, either to watch as they desire or just for the sake of having a good collection -- which is a perfectly legitimate desire, even if it is one that not all people share -- will want optical media, because the magnetic are too clumsy. The problem here is that Blu-Ray may be a very poor choice, given the closeness of its storage to the surface and questions about the hard coating and whether the disc writers are cheating, or will cheat, in using the more expensive coating. On this point, we will have to see.

However, because there are these three groups (and maybe some that I have missed), there is no "one size fits all", and we probably will see several differing solutions exist simultaneously.

Cuhulin

01-13-08, 12:53 PM

Wasn't that complex previously owned by Borland?

The Borland site is across highway 17.

Mikazaru

01-13-08, 01:37 PM

I know people who have received phone calls and warnings from their isp for being "bandwidth hogs". The infrastructure just isn't there yet. Until we have "fiber to the door", I can't see digital downloading of high def movies taking off in a big way (imagine millions of people downloading 25-50 Gb of content all at the same time). It just isn't going to happen anytime in the near future.

Edit: p2p downloading is legal in Canada

2Channel

01-13-08, 02:44 PM

Gates at CES (nice review, reuters quotes with regards to format war):

http://www.alleyinsider.com/2008/01/...o-no-news.html

Most useful is this pre-speech Q&A from Reuters, who did get Gates to at least address the HD DVD problem:

Warner Brothers said last week it was backing Blu-ray exclusively. Will Microsoft remain committed to the HD DVD format even if it appears that the media companies are backing Blu-ray?

"Certainly we supported both Blu-ray and HD DVD as Windows peripherals. The last announcement was Paramount opting for HD DVD and now this one is going the other way. I still think a format battle is going on there. Our contribution is the HDi Interactive format piece has been really well received. We hope to see that used broadly. I think the real competitor in the long run is digital (video) download. Just like in music, it is going to be the biggest of the three."

You kind of sound agnostic about the formats.

"No, not really. We have definitely worked with HD DVD in a very strong fashion. Our codecs and HDi are available on the other format and we are a leader in digital download so we have some involvement in all three approaches. In the long run, people don’t want physical media. You don’t say to yourself, what’s the format battle after CD. If someone tried to introduce a new music format, you’d laugh and say ‘well isn’t that my phone, my iPod and my Zune?’ And you’d be right!"

http://www.avsforum.com/avs-vb/showpost.php?p=12716845&postcount=66

I wouldn't exactly call that strong support.

Microsoft XBox could consider blu-ray support

"It should be consumer choice; and if that's the way they vote, that's something we'll have to consider," Albert Penello, group marketing manager for Xbox hardware said when asked whether Microsoft would support a Blu-ray DVD accessory in the event that HD-DVD failed.

http://news.yahoo.com/s/nm/20080108/tc_nm/show_xbox_dc_1

Of course this is good business, but not good rhetoric timing if they really support HD DVD.

There is more and I'm sure other members will be happy to help you out.

And those studio, rumor denials you spoke of...

The word "currently" was conspicuously present.
And the word "exclusive" was conspicuously absent.

Anyone remember Warner's words from December?

It's good we can respectfully agree to disagree on your last point. I'm sure blu-ray.com is full of haters. I don't know, I never visit that site.

From what I've heard on AVS, I still firmly believe that there are more members with a sheer hatred for SONY and blu-ray than there are of Toshiba and HD DVD. Of course we each have our centric viewpoints so either one of us could be right or wrong on this.

Now enjoy your Sunday and go watch a flick on blu-ray!

:)

Oh how quickly we forget........

http://www.avsforum.com/avs-vb/showthread.php?p=12204586&highlight=stringer#post12204586

We have a sort of stalemate at the moment. As you know, they had fewer studios, but then they paid a lot of money for Paramount. So we have four studios and they have two or three studios. It's a difficult... it's a difficult fight. There was a chance to integrate it before I became CEO. This is something I inherited. And I don't know what broke down. I wish I could go back there, because I heard it was all about saving face and losing face, and all the rest of it. But it's not a battle about the digital future. That's what's so strange about it. If it doesn't work out, that doesn't say very much about where we're all going. It's just... it's a scorecard: one-nothing or something. But it doesn't mean as much as all that. PlayStation 3 will still go on playing games. It would have to have a different disk drive. And that's about it really.

This infuriated the Blu-ray supporters at Blu-ray.com by the way. But what was Howard Stringer telling us a few months ago? This HDM battle is important, but it's not everything. It's not a battle over the digital future....movie downloads. Stringer was basically saying that if push came to shove and Blu-ray didn't win out, he'd make a SKU with a universal optical drive and offer HD DVD and Blu-ray playback in the PS3. Stringer was not going to allow a Blu-ray loss to sink both their game division and their movie download future. The PS3 is not only a trojan horse for Blu-ray but for movie downloads as well.

Now ulitmately I think Stringer new that they needed to do everything possible to get a BD win, as this would boost the PS3 and make it a more desirable product, which would simultaneously seed more homes for their movie download service. The success or failure of Blu-ray would impact those two other important markets for Sony. In that context it's not surprising that Stringer was willing to pay $500 million to Warner. That's an investment that helps Sony in three markets, not just one.

Considering all of the above, how would you expect Bill Gates (who runs a much bigger company than Sony, with more diverse products and markets) to treat these questions? I thought his responses were appropriate. From what I've heard from Kevin Collins, at an executive level of Microsoft, they have committed to be in this fight and support their partners. That doesn't mean they're going to sacrifice other revenue streams like Windows over this format war though.

Personally, I'm good with that. I've always felt that universal players were the way to go, and the direction this market was going to head in the end. Speaking of which Samsung was not only showing their BD-UP5500 due in May for $599 list, they were also talking about their next BD-UP6500 due around October.

As for Blu-ray supporters on AVS, yes they're typically a more reasonable bunch, though with some.......let's just say their tone here is very different from their tone on other sites. The reason why many of them viewed a Warner loss as the death of HDM is because they bought into the whole idea that you couldn't have true HDM without the additional storage and bandwidth of Blu-ray. Those were the only technical advantages to Blu-ray after all, so they clung to the belief that HD DVD looked terrible. By the way, there are at least a couple of posters over there who say they won't buy The Matrix on Blu-ray unless Warner re-encodes it at higher bit rates. That's how much they've fallen for this line. Fortunately, from what I've seen, it looks like the bit meter on the PS3 exagerates bit rates. Warner can issue the same encode in a blue case and they can all feel good about how much better it looks.

Anyway, no blu-ray movies for me today. I don't have a player, and like I said, I'm not in a rush. Maybe this next Christmas. In the mean time I think I'll pop in The Matrix on HD DVD. ;)

30XS955 User

01-13-08, 02:45 PM

Bill say in the long run, which means no sooner than five years. I can see downloads beginning to become more of an option than, but not overnight like some here would like to believe.

Sketcha

01-13-08, 03:26 PM

Oh how quickly we forget........

http://www.avsforum.com/avs-vb/showthread.php?p=12204586&highlight=stringer#post12204586

We have a sort of stalemate at the moment. As you know, they had fewer studios, but then they paid a lot of money for Paramount. So we have four studios and they have two or three studios. It's a difficult... it's a difficult fight. There was a chance to integrate it before I became CEO. This is something I inherited. And I don't know what broke down. I wish I could go back there, because I heard it was all about saving face and losing face, and all the rest of it. But it's not a battle about the digital future. That's what's so strange about it. If it doesn't work out, that doesn't say very much about where we're all going. It's just... it's a scorecard: one-nothing or something. But it doesn't mean as much as all that. PlayStation 3 will still go on playing games. It would have to have a different disk drive. And that's about it really.

This infuriated the Blu-ray supporters at Blu-ray.com by the way. But what was Howard Stringer telling us a few months ago? This HDM battle is important, but it's not everything. It's not a battle over the digital future....movie downloads. Stringer was basically saying that if push came to shove and Blu-ray didn't win out, he'd make a SKU with a universal optical drive and offer HD DVD and Blu-ray playback in the PS3. Stringer was not going to allow a Blu-ray loss to sink both their game division and their movie download future. The PS3 is not only a trojan horse for Blu-ray but for movie downloads as well.

Now ulitmately I think Stringer new that they needed to do everything possible to get a BD win, as this would boost the PS3 and make it a more desirable product, which would simultaneously seed more homes for their movie download service. The success or failure of Blu-ray would impact those two other important markets for Sony. In that context it's not surprising that Stringer was willing to pay $500 million to Warner. That's an investment that helps Sony in three markets, not just one.

Considering all of the above, how would you expect Bill Gates (who runs a much bigger company than Sony, with more diverse products and markets) to treat these questions? I thought his responses were appropriate. From what I've heard from Kevin Collins, at an executive level of Microsoft, they have committed to be in this fight and support their partners. That doesn't mean they're going to sacrifice other revenue streams like Windows over this format war though.

Personally, I'm good with that. I've always felt that universal players were the way to go, and the direction this market was going to head in the end. Speaking of which Samsung was not only showing their BD-UP5500 due in May for $599 list, they were also talking about their next BD-UP6500 due around October.

As for Blu-ray supporters on AVS, yes they're typically a more reasonable bunch, though with some.......let's just say their tone here is very different from their tone on other sites. The reason why many of them viewed a Warner loss as the death of HDM is because they bought into the whole idea that you couldn't have true HDM without the additional storage and bandwidth of Blu-ray. Those were the only technical advantages to Blu-ray after all, so they clung to the belief that HD DVD looked terrible. By the way, there are at least a couple of posters over there who say they won't buy The Matrix on Blu-ray unless Warner re-encodes it at higher bit rates. That's how much they've fallen for this line. Fortunately, from what I've seen, it looks like the bit meter on the PS3 exagerates bit rates. Warner can issue the same encode in a blue case and they can all feel good about how much better it looks.

Anyway, no blu-ray movies for me today. I don't have a player, and like I said, I'm not in a rush. Maybe this next Christmas. In the mean time I think I'll pop in The Matrix on HD DVD. ;)

I never said the PS3 was not going to be incapable of playing downloads. In fact it would speed up my purchase of one if I were sure that it would, at least someday do that. All indications are pointing to it.

But Sony was never trying to pit 2 formats against each other to stall them while they went for downloads. That's a pretty big difference, IMO. Obviously Sony has quite a bit more to lose than MS if HDM goes South, wouldn't you agree.

Also I don't understand why people think it's such a conspiracy theory that MS would do this. It would be good, tough business; business that they are certainly capable of. And it's not MS that I had a problem with; it was the few members here that were, IMO spreading FUD about blu-ray out of sour grapes.

Enjoy The Matrix! I'm here with my laptop watching San Diego and Indianapolis on glorious CBS Sports HD!

Cheers

Cheers

Sketcha

01-13-08, 03:30 PM

Bill say in the long run, which means no sooner than five years. I can see downloads beginning to become more of an option than, but not overnight like some here would like to believe.
Correct.

My point was that he said it twice in short succession, pretty much dismissing HDM. Not exactly strong support of HD DVD.

I know many an HD DVD supporter that read it the way I did. If you didn't, that's O.K.

Cheers

2Channel

01-13-08, 04:29 PM

I never said the PS3 was not going to be incapable of playing downloads. In fact it would speed up my purchase of one if I were sure that it would, at least someday do that. All indications are pointing to it.

But Sony was never trying to pit 2 formats against each other to stall them while they went for downloads. That's a pretty big difference, IMO. Obviously Sony has quite a bit more to lose than MS if HDM goes South, wouldn't you agree.

Also I don't understand why people think it's such a conspiracy theory that MS would do this. It would be good, tough business; business that they are certainly capable of. And it's not MS that I had a problem with; it was the few members here that were, IMO spreading FUD about blu-ray out of sour grapes.

Enjoy The Matrix! I'm here with my laptop watching San Diego and Indianapolis on glorious CBS Sports HD!

Cheers

Cheers

Here's the problem with the "Microsoft is trying to kill HDM theory", it only makes sense if we're ready to transtition to downloads very soon. We're not in my opinion or Bill Gates opinion. As he says that's where consumers are going "in the long run." Five or more years is a long time and we will have a new optical format established. What does it buy them to try and stall unless downloads are ready to come into the picture in a big way now or very soon?

Let me go through some of this history of the format war. If you'd like supporting quotes and links I can provide them.

The format war happened because of Sony and Toshiba. Back when Sony and Toshiba sat down to try and reach a compromise and avert the format war, Toshiba was willing to put everything on the table and have everything judged on its technical merits. Sony was unwilling to do this with the basic disc format. The reason is that this is apparently one of the big IP revenue sources in the two formats. This is the reason Sony was in this fight to begin with. Now personally I think Toshiba was willing to put everything up to technical review because they knew they would win on the disc format. If Toshiba had to ditch HDi to win on disc format, they would have gladly done so. There was no risk to HDi though, because even the Blu-ray technical evaluation group voted for it over Java. It was rejected at the board level, but even at the board level, Sony voted for HDi as well.

I believe that all of these comanies view downloads as the "next format." This whole concept of trying to stall HDM for downloads doesn't make sense to me. Beyond Java vs HDi look into mandatory managed copy for a better understanding of why HP stopped initially supporting Blu-ray and why Microsoft and Intel had a problem with Blu-ray.

Yes, Sony has more to loose than Microsoft, but that's the wrong comparison. This is about Sony and Toshiba, and they both have a lot to loose.

By the way, my personal opinion is that you can feel very confident that the PS3 is getting a movie download service. I can't say more than that, as it would be wrong.

Sketcha

01-13-08, 05:04 PM

Here's the problem with the "Microsoft is trying to kill HDM theory", it only makes sense if we're ready to transtition to downloads very soon. We're not in my opinion or Bill Gates opinion. As he says that's where consumers are going "in the long run." Five or more years is a long time and we will have a new optical format established. What does it buy them to try and stall unless downloads are ready to come into the picture in a big way now or very soon?

Let me go through some of this history of the format war. If you'd like supporting quotes and links I can provide them.

The format war happened because of Sony and Toshiba. Back when Sony and Toshiba sat down to try and reach a compromise and avert the format war, Toshiba was willing to put everything on the table and have everything judged on its technical merits. Sony was unwilling to do this with the basic disc format. The reason is that this is apparently one of the big IP revenue sources in the two formats. This is the reason Sony was in this fight to begin with. Now personally I think Toshiba was willing to put everything up to technical review because they knew they would win on the disc format. If Toshiba had to ditch HDi to win on disc format, they would have gladly done so. There was no risk to HDi though, because even the Blu-ray technical evaluation group voted for it over Java. It was rejected at the board level, but even at the board level, Sony voted for HDi as well.

I believe that all of these comanies view downloads as the "next format." This whole concept of trying to stall HDM for downloads doesn't make sense to me. Beyond Java vs HDi look into mandatory managed copy for a better understanding of why HP stopped initially supporting Blu-ray and why Microsoft and Intel had a problem with Blu-ray.

Yes, Sony has more to loose than Microsoft, but that's the wrong comparison. This is about Sony and Toshiba, and they both have a lot to loose.

By the way, my personal opinion is that you can feel very confident that the PS3 is getting a movie download service. I can't say more than that, as it would be wrong.
Thanks for the history. To be honest, I never cared about the politics of it. I picked my horse mostly for practical reasons. At first it was for specs, then studio support, then marketing power, then the PS3. Specs became less of an issue more recently when HD DVD proved it could produce content at very near (mostly transparent) the quality of HD DVD. A pretty surprising feat, I might ad!

Of course Paramount surprised the Hell out of me! (As a side note, if you read my responses to that, they were pretty tame. I showed admiration for the well-played business move more than anything else which clearly shows that I would have reacted similarly had Warner gone the other way.) So Studio support became less of an advantage, but there was still that PS3 and the Sony juggernaut of marketing power!

Now as to the rest of your post, there are many here that believe AND have supporting evidence to show that downloads are not as far off as you say. Also, I missed it. Where did Bill say 5 years?

My personal view is that HDM and download services along with VOD will coexist for many years. And for me, that would be ideal. Choices!

2Channel

01-13-08, 08:14 PM

snip........

Now as to the rest of your post, there are many here that believe AND have supporting evidence to show that downloads are not as far off as you say. Also, I missed it. Where did Bill say 5 years?

My personal view is that HDM and download services along with VOD will coexist for many years. And for me, that would be ideal. Choices!

Bill used the term long run, in other words not soon. My personal swag is at least 5 years (if not longer) before it becomes a real factor.

That's not to say that we don't already have movie download services. Microsoft has been doing it for a a while through Xbox Live, Apple has been selling video content through iTunes for some time, Netflix allows you to watch movie downloads and Sony will join the game before much longer. My opinion is that they are all early 1.0 efforts. Everyone is preparing and learning at this stage. Learning how to build the infrastructure for distribution, the mechanisms to handle the content, etc. These are not ready for prime time services. Not over the Internet anyway.

The companies that I think are closest to achieving a compelling digital distribution model are the cable/sat companies because of their installed base of DVRs and because they own the plumbing to distribute content. When you own the plumbing, you can upgrade it yourself (assuming you can afford the cost). Fortunately for Apple, Microsoft and Sony, these companies show all the nimbleness and speed of your local DMV.

For Apple, Microsoft and Sony, they rely on the plumbing of the Internet and are dependent on carriers to increase the size of their pipes. They don't control one of the key gating factors in making movie downloads a more realistic option. The bandwidth will come over time, but you tell me. Do you think these services will be eating up a significant piece of the DVD market before it transitions to HDM?

Sketcha

01-13-08, 11:41 PM

but you tell me. Do you think these services will be eating up a significant piece of the DVD market before it transitions to HDM?
Nope.

...with a qualifier. I'm not sure that HDM will ever, fully supplant DVD.

ECH

01-14-08, 12:12 AM

looks like netflix is stepping up their movie downloading program
Source (http://www.neowin.net/news/main/08/01/13/netflix-expands-internet-viewing-option-day-before-macworld)

hAPPY1977

01-14-08, 01:33 AM

How about turn on your TV... and press play... no disc needed... It's all stored on someone ELSES HDD and instantly delivered to your home over a 1tb/s fiber link with a fancy IMDB like interface.

Search any movie or show and press play within 10 seconds.

Do I have to pay each time just to watch it? If I do then forget it. Also, If that someone elses HDD fails or has technical troubles, I have to wait for them to fix it before I can enjoy it just when I'm in the mood to watch something? Just knowing I don't have it in hand is not comforting enough and knowing that I can't take it anywhere with me just doesn't cut it. All that tech sounds good but it's not fail safe and from the looks of it, it's costly.

I have never downloaded songs on internet except free ones. I always borrow CDs and convert them to mp3.

I got comcast, and with them, any service that you want to get is more $$. A lot of people don't have that luxury.

Any way, there's a similar discussion here: http://www.avsforum.com/avs-vb/showthread.php?t=974544

2Channel

01-14-08, 02:36 AM

Nope.

...with a qualifier. I'm not sure that HDM will ever, fully supplant DVD.

I agree, and there in lies one of the reasons I was pulling for HD DVD to prevail. I believe that this is the last generation of optical media, but it is operating within a shorter window of relevancy than DVD had. HD DVD has the ability to scale quickly with broad existing replication infrastructure, a complete interactivity spec in place and player prices already at low price points.

http://www.contentagenda.com/blog/1500000150/post/1800019780.html

“None of the facts have changed,” one studio exec said. “The problems that existed [with Blu-ray] in December still exist. They didn’t go away because Warner changed sides.”

Among those, in the exec’s view, are disc manufacturing constraints, high costs and high consumer prices.
“I think the days of falling prices are over,” another studio exec said. “The hardware is going to be $300, and discs are going to be $27. We’ll see if the consumer buys it.”

Blu-ray supporters would tell me that with time Blu-ray will keep getting better and deliver on its promise. With this shorter window and greater hurdles will it turn out to be a pyrhic victory as Dean Takahashi predicted?

http://www.mercurynews.com/deantakahashi
Blu-ray's Pyrrhic victory. Warner Bros. delivered a huge blow just days before the show when it said it would dump the HD DVD next-generation DVD disc format and put its movies only on Blu-ray discs. That should lift Blu-ray sales significantly. But this victory comes late for the PlayStation 3, which has a built-in Blu-ray drive, as it lags in third place in the video game console battle. On top of that, consumers aren't yet much interested in either the $399 Blu-ray players or the $800 combination HD DVD and Blu-ray machines. It seems the good old DVD disc might be good enough for a lot of people.

Only time will tell. I suspect that considering the current lay of the land, BD disc production will be focused on high volume block buster releases. What does that mean for low volume catalog titles like Casablanca or Robin Hood? Perhaps they'll take the time to get those specific titles out in Blu-ray so Warner can sync to what they've released in HD DVD. I don't expect too much catalog depth though. I hope I'm wrong.

In the mean time I'm hoping for more old catalog releases on HD DVD, and maybe some great deals on HD DVD titles. If any one is eager to get rid of their Star Trek HD DVDs, please PM me. You know, HD DVD is starting to look better to me. I'll be more tempted to get a universal player when there's more Blu-ray only content that I want to own. :D

Sketcha

01-14-08, 02:07 PM

I agree, and there in lies one of the reasons I was pulling for HD DVD to prevail. I believe that this is the last generation of optical media, but it is operating within a shorter window of relevancy than DVD had. HD DVD has the ability to scale quickly with broad existing replication infrastructure, a complete interactivity spec in place and player prices already at low price points.

Only time will tell. I suspect that considering the current lay of the land, BD disc production will be focused on high volume block buster releases. What does that mean for low volume catalog titles like Casablanca or Robin Hood? Perhaps they'll take the time to get those specific titles out in Blu-ray so Warner can sync to what they've released in HD DVD. I don't expect too much catalog depth though. I hope I'm wrong.

In the mean time I'm hoping for more old catalog releases on HD DVD, and maybe some great deals on HD DVD titles. If any one is eager to get rid of their Star Trek HD DVDs, please PM me. You know, HD DVD is starting to look better to me. I'll be more tempted to get a universal player when there's more Blu-ray only content that I want to own. :D
1. I must admit that I've never thought of that. That IS a good argument. Too bad it's too late. :)

2. This did cross my mind, though. I too hope you're wrong on this. But even if BD cannot fully supplant DVD, they could last for quite awhile alongside dowloads. BD does not have to take over DVD in order to get some great catalogs. Bear in mind that the massive list of DVD catalogs AND new releases is comprised mostly of CRAP!!!

3. Still haven't taken my A2 back. I'm getting down to the wire. If I see some insane HD DVD software blowouts, I'll have no choice but to keep the A2 and pick up a bunch. Though I'm not quite as pessimistic about catalogs on BD as you, I DO recognize that it could be awhile before we see some of the current HD DVD catalogs restamped on BD.

2Channel

01-14-08, 08:34 PM

1. I must admit that I've never thought of that. That IS a good argument. Too bad it's too late. :)

Oh, I'm sure the studios understand this point. The problem is that it ignores the more fundamental issue that has only dawned on me more recently. They realize they're not in the shiny disc business, they're in the selling movies business. It doesn't hurt the studios at all if Blu-ray has a short runway. They'll sell their titles through whatever distribution mechanism consumers flock to. Downloads will make low volume catalog releases easier and more practical then ever.

2. This did cross my mind, though. I too hope you're wrong on this. But even if BD cannot fully supplant DVD, they could last for quite awhile alongside dowloads. BD does not have to take over DVD in order to get some great catalogs. Bear in mind that the massive list of DVD catalogs AND new releases is comprised mostly of CRAP!!!

Yes, I think BD will last quite a while along side downloads, just as CD continues to live along side MP3. In fact I expect them to push for and embrace managed copy as downloads become more popular in the future. In the mean time, we'll have to wait. It's too bad we can't get the beautifully remastered Bond movies on BD or some of the great old Warner titles like The Maltese Falcon. Maybe somewhere down the road they'll get around to pressing those.

3. Still haven't taken my A2 back. I'm getting down to the wire. If I see some insane HD DVD software blowouts, I'll have no choice but to keep the A2 and pick up a bunch. Though I'm not quite as pessimistic about catalogs on BD as you, I DO recognize that it could be awhile before we see some of the current HD DVD catalogs restamped on BD.

For me it's a no brainer, the only way I'd give up my player is for a universal player. Everybody needs to make their own choice though.

hdkhang

01-14-08, 10:41 PM

Do I have to pay each time just to watch it? If I do then forget it. Also, If that someone elses HDD fails or has technical troubles, I have to wait for them to fix it before I can enjoy it just when I'm in the mood to watch something? Just knowing I don't have it in hand is not comforting enough and knowing that I can't take it anywhere with me just doesn't cut it. All that tech sounds good but it's not fail safe and from the looks of it, it's costly.

Is anything fail safe? If your BD/HD DVD/Universal disc player breaks down, what then? If your rental disc is scratched beyond repair, what then? If your kids lost that Out Of Print disc, what then? If you got robbed of your movie collection or disc player, what then?

Movies are not a necessity. What is funny is that I've had less downtime with cable TV than I've had with water services. Less even than electricity (hard to gauge that one since when the electricity goes out I can't know for sure if the cable TV didn't either - but that's a bit of a stretch). Why are you so ready to accept that HDM is fail safe and yet VOD/PPV/DD is prone to errors, VOD/PPV/DD have been happily coexisting in some limited form for some time now.

I have never downloaded songs on internet except free ones. I always borrow CDs and convert them to mp3.

Borrowing CDs doesn't give you the right to convert them to MP3s for your personal use, I believe if you read the forum rules... piracy isn't to be discussed on these forums.

aaronwt

01-14-08, 11:47 PM

He should be given a time out just for using MP3s.:D I only use WMA, much better than MP3. Although that is with my own CDs. I bought alot between 1985 and 1995. And 2007 was the last year for me buying CDs. I'm only buying music downloads from now on, as long as it's in the WMA format.

SamwisetheBrave

01-15-08, 08:22 AM

markrubin

01-15-08, 08:23 AM

Serious qt: what's WMA?

Windows Media Audio

SamwisetheBrave

01-15-08, 09:25 AM

Windows Media Audio

Thanks.:)

I have XP...does this mean I have WMA capability?

markrubin

01-15-08, 09:35 AM

Thanks.:)

I have XP...does this mean I have WMA capability?

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Windows_Media_Audio#Windows_Media_Audio

SamwisetheBrave

01-15-08, 10:28 AM

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Windows_Media_Audio#Windows_Media_Audio

Thanks again. I just downloaded version 11.

Computers are cool!

Sketcha

01-15-08, 12:36 PM

Thanks again. I just downloaded version 11.

Computers are cool!
Is that a Beavis reference?

ncted

01-15-08, 12:56 PM

Given the AppleTV2, it looks like someone is trying to offer competition to HD/BD with HD downloads for rent. Almost all the Studios are on-board.

Ted

shanewalker

01-15-08, 04:00 PM

Given the AppleTV2, it looks like someone is trying to offer competition to HD/BD with HD downloads for rent. Almost all the Studios are on-board.

Ted

Although the statements from Apple/Fox during today's keynote presentation talked of Blu-ray and how downloads were a rental/companion format to allow consumers flexibility in viewing devices, i.e. portability.

That's a different stance that subtly trying to overrun/subvert HD-on-disc.

Sketcha

01-15-08, 05:05 PM

Although the statements from Apple/Fox during today's keynote presentation talked of Blu-ray and how downloads were a rental/companion format to allow consumers flexibility in viewing devices, i.e. portability.

That's a different stance that subtly trying to overrun/subvert HD-on-disc.
I've long since come to the conclusion that dowloads and HDM will live side-by-side for some time. I mean, PPV/VOD has been around for a very long time and it's made nary a dent.

However, there is one thing that has come to my mind that COULD be an issue... maybe...

If the rental shops close up, with fewer discs pressed, the economies of scale could keep prices higher for a little longer than we all hope.

But if anything, I think this would have a very minor effect.

SamwisetheBrave

01-15-08, 05:51 PM

Is that a Beavis reference?

If you want it to be...I wooden know....

(Heh, heh....He said Wood!)

Sketcha

01-15-08, 11:17 PM

If you want it to be...I wooden know....

(Heh, heh....He said Wood!)
Heeh... heeh... YEAH!... Cool...

I AM CORNHOLIO!!!

griffon2k

01-15-08, 11:28 PM

Although the statements from Apple/Fox during today's keynote presentation talked of Blu-ray and how downloads were a rental/companion format to allow consumers flexibility in viewing devices, i.e. portability.

That's a different stance that subtly trying to overrun/subvert HD-on-disc.

So because they come right out and say it, they're not trying to kill HD disc in order to pave the way for digital downloads, like Microsoft has been accused of.

And Microsoft actually sells an HD DVD player with their product while Apple does not.

I'm almost certain that was said to avoid the obvious reaction that most people got from the Apple TV HD movies announcement. Hollywood sees digital downloads as the future and are investing, heavily.

Apple TV
Xbox Live Video Marketplace
Netflix Downloads

All of these services have strong Hollywood support.

Consumers rent more than they buy and I highly doubt the average consumer would buy an Apple TV and a Blu-ray player.

The writing is on the wall folks. The future is the download and Hollywood is in on it. Big time.

2Channel

01-16-08, 02:39 AM

So because they come right out and say it, they're not trying to kill HD disc in order to pave the way for digital downloads, like Microsoft has been accused of.

And Microsoft actually sells an HD DVD player with their product while Apple does not.

I'm almost certain that was said to avoid the obvious reaction that most people got from the Apple TV HD movies announcement. Hollywood sees digital downloads as the future and are investing, heavily.

Apple TV
Xbox Live Video Marketplace
Netflix Downloads

All of these services have strong Hollywood support.

Consumers rent more than they buy and I highly doubt the average consumer would buy an Apple TV and a Blu-ray player.

The writing is on the wall folks. The future is the download and Hollywood is in on it. Big time.

I guess there was no Blu-ray announcement from Apple?

So $229 for the Apple TV2 with 40GB drive and HD rentals from most major studios. This puts pressure on Sony to hurry up and announce their download service for PS3. I wonder how that will impact BD disc sales.

Faceless Rebel

01-16-08, 03:15 AM

It won't. Apple's service is 720p and DD5.1, just like Microsoft's.

If you want full HD 1080p and lossless/uncompressed audio, you still need optical discs.

Carlos_E

01-16-08, 09:36 AM

It won't. Apple's service is 720p and DD5.1, just like Microsoft's.

If you want full HD 1080p and lossless/uncompressed audio, you still need optical discs.
I agree. I bought a 160 GB AppleTV yesterday in preparation for HD movie rentals. Movies that I want to see at the spur of the moment I'll use iTunes. Movies that I want to buy and keep I'll buy the blu-ray disc.

griffon2k

01-16-08, 10:34 AM

It won't. Apple's service is 720p and DD5.1, just like Microsoft's.

If you want full HD 1080p and lossless/uncompressed audio, you still need optical discs.

Faceless,

With Audio/Videophiles, sure 720p won't be enough, but for the rest of the mass market it's naive to believe they'll care enough about the pixel count not to use this service.

Cable VOD and Xbox Live Video Marketplace have both been extremely successful thus far, and neither of those services are 1080p.

If VOD services have really been a contributor to a decline in DVD sales, there's no reason to believe it'll be any different with HD disc.

richiekkim

01-16-08, 11:18 AM

It won't. Apple's service is 720p and DD5.1, just like Microsoft's.

If you want full HD 1080p and lossless/uncompressed audio, you still need optical discs.

And people who full HD 1080p and lossless/uncompressed audio are in the minority.

Sketcha

01-16-08, 11:37 AM

So because they come right out and say it, they're not trying to kill HD disc in order to pave the way for digital downloads, like Microsoft has been accused of.

And Microsoft actually sells an HD DVD player with their product while Apple does not.

I'm almost certain that was said to avoid the obvious reaction that most people got from the Apple TV HD movies announcement. Hollywood sees digital downloads as the future and are investing, heavily.

Apple TV
Xbox Live Video Marketplace
Netflix Downloads

All of these services have strong Hollywood support.

Consumers rent more than they buy and I highly doubt the average consumer would buy an Apple TV and a Blu-ray player.

The writing is on the wall folks. The future is the download and Hollywood is in on it. Big time.
I guess you never got it.

Apple never purported to support blu-ray, or at least as strongly as MS did for HD DVD.

So Apple was never playing anyone.

raaj

01-16-08, 12:12 PM

I guess you never got it.

Apple never purported to support blu-ray, or at least as strongly as MS did for HD DVD.

So Apple was never playing anyone.

Apple was nevertheless a "marquee" and "stalwart" supporter of BD all this time. Now they poked the BDA in the eye with their iTMS rentals that start "the minute you press play".

Yea, it's not Apple that played BDA, it's the collective lot, "Apple and the studios" that are playing the HDM enthusiasts. Apple put the proverbial dagger in HDOptical's chest.

Sketcha

01-16-08, 03:32 PM

Apple was nevertheless a "marquee" and "stalwart" supporter of BD all this time. Now they poked the BDA in the eye with their iTMS rentals that start "the minute you press play".

Yea, it's not Apple that played BDA, it's the collective lot, "Apple and the studios" that are playing the HDM enthusiasts. Apple put the proverbial dagger in HDOptical's chest.
Well then HDM must be wearing a breast plate because this will not be the death blow to blu-ray.

Downloads may hurt the rental market and thereby blu-ray a little bit, but blu-ray will live alongside downloads and DVD for quite awhile.

And there's nothing wrong with Apple and the studios trying to make a buck anyway they legally can, wherever there's a market.

JMO

Kosty

01-17-08, 11:10 AM

I attended the panel discussion with most of the studio VP's that were in charge of digital content last week at CES.

It was interesting that they all were rather tempered in their expectations during the next two years. Pretty much , no one knows how soon short downloads may supplement the short form content now being downloaded to small screens.

I think the consensus was Verizon FIOS was only platform ready this year for long content HD downloads but it will take 3-4 years for HD movie downloads to be easy for the masses.

All seemed pretty much to the mind that they should all use a lot of distribution schemes and throw them against the wall and see what sticks.

TECHNOLOGY IMPACT: The Shaping of Hollywood Decision Making
2:30-3:30 p.m. Monday, January 7, 2008, Las Vegas Hilton Theater

Variety hosts top studio digital media executives to discuss how technology advances impact the strategic decisions made by studios. Topics will cover the entertainment landscape as a result of tech advances in digital delivery, high definition formats, the explosion of hand-held devices and ever-growing internet bandwidth.

Moderator:
Charlie Koones - President & Publisher, Variety

Panelists:
Tom Lesinski - President, Paramount Pictures Digital Entertainment
Dan Fawcett - President, Fox Entertainment Group Digital Media
Albert Cheng - Executive Vice President, Digital Media Disney-ABC Television Group
Thomas Gwecke - President, Warner Bros. Digital Distribution