BD looks to be the HD media victor but there is a lot of competition in the HD market place...so, how will the pie be split?


I will throw out a 1 year scenario as IMO, HD DVD will be out or on its way out but still have a share in the market place. Hers my prediction:

BD=%35.....Optical sales will be %75
HD DVD=%20...Optical sales will be %25
All others =%45

I have always thought HD media would be niche regardless of the outcome because of all the emerging competition. I will be in that Niche though.:)


Granted the HD pie is very small....I think its less Than %20 of the market...maybe someone else knows for sure and if you do please post links. Also, this is not a "WE won you lost get over it thread" or a "WE are not dead yet thread" I just want to hear form you guys on all the news concerning HD.

Well, considering that music downloads account for 10% of music album sales after 6 years of having iTunes on the market (and that is only because of the popularity of the iPod).

By next year, cable HD downloads will have about 3% of the HD "pie".

In 5 years, cable HD downloads will have about 10% of the HD "pie".

Have you ever tried to use Comcast's HD on-demand service? They keep coming up with excuses about how "too many people are trying to access the same item" and "line conditions are not optimal" whenever I have (constant) problems trying to view content in HD. I've never thought about renting an HD item b/c of the poorness so far and the off-the-cuff excuses about it not working.

I've unplugged my HD DVR so many times having to do as they ask that I've given up temporariliy on HD on demand services. This is all the while that their SD on demand stuff works perfectly :(. If they don't correct this, they will have no slice of that pie!

Before getting all giddy over the Comcast announcement just yet. Let's see what they are charging. I know their cost for VOD HD is ludicrous.

What Comcast announcement?

I seriously doubt if Comcast's "Project Infinity" will be ready nationwide in a year, if anywhere.
Catchy name though.
J

What is comcast? Another piracy group?

BD looks to be the HD media victor but there is a lot of competition in the HD market place...so, how will the pie be split?


I will throw out a 1 year scenario as IMO, HD DVD will be out or on its way out but still have a share in the market place. Hers my prediction:

BD=%35.....Optical sales will be %75
HD DVD=%20...Optical sales will be %25
All others =%45

I have always thought HD media would be niche regardless of the outcome because of all the emerging competition. I will be in that Niche though.:)


Granted the HD pie is very small....I think its less Than %20 of the market...maybe someone else knows for sure and if you do please post links. Also, this is not a "WE won you lost get over it thread" or a "WE are not dead yet thread" I just want to hear form you guys on all the news concerning HD.

I would like to respond to you OP but I am having trouble understanding what it is you are driving at.

Do these numbers help you?

CBL - 66%
SAT - 24%
FIOS - 3%
OTA - 7%

This is how people get their TV signals, according to the CEA.

All of them offer HD programming.

Approx. 10 to 15 million people are watching HD on their HDTV by using one of the above.

Are you trying to figure out where HDM fits into the puzzle?

I would like to respond to you OP but I am having trouble understanding what it is you are driving at.

Do these numbers help you?

CBL - 66%
SAT - 24%
FIOS - 3%
OTA - 7%

This is how people get their TV signals, according to the CEA.

All of them offer HD programming.

Approx. 10 to 15 million people are watching HD on their HDTV by using one of the above.

Are you trying to figure out where HDM fits into the puzzle?

Lee,
I am trying to see what you think of the HD market as a whole. Right now dvd dominates the optical market, when dvd first came out it had no other optical disc competition(no disrespect to Laserdisc) Now we have so many options to get Hd from and I was wondering what YOU think the HD landscape will look like in a year. Make it your own as I did.:)

In a word yes.

WTF Comcast announcement was he referring too? I was scratching my head wondering...

WTF Comcast announcement was he referring too? I was scratching my head wondering...

http://www.avsforum.com/avs-vb/showthread.php?t=972981

Ummm, I don't have comcast..........

I seriously doubt if Comcast's "Project Infinity" will be ready nationwide in a year, if anywhere.
Catchy name though.
J

yea, it defines the wait time ...

I've seen a demonstration of DOCSIS 3.0 from Cisco. It's the real deal in the lab. 20 megabytes (thats bytes not bits) per second. What remains to be seen is how it fits into existing infrastructure and how well it scales. Cable modem technology can be very fast, but historically it can have issues scaling once you get past the head end.

Lee,
I am trying to see what you think of the HD market as a whole. Right now dvd dominates the optical market, when dvd first came out it had no other optical disc competition(no disrespect to Laserdisc) Now we have so many options to get Hd from and I was wondering what YOU think the HD landscape will look like in a year. Make it your own as I did.:)

In a word yes.

That is going to be a very difficult thing to do. The HD "OTA" providers do not publish numbers on the number of HD subscribers they have. Every now and then we get a crumb of info.

How do we make a list? by dollars spent? Number of people with an HD STB or player?

What ever the list is . . . . HDM is at the bottom.

Sony has already thrown their 2008 forecast out for BD. They said that they will go from $170 million to $1 billion in the year 2008. But their projections have always been off and are nothing more than forward looking statements.

One analysist has said that by 2011 more than 50% of all households will have a DVR while another has said that HDM will be in 25% of all households in the same time period.

You are trying to nail JELL-O to the wall.

If it's anything like the cable VOD service (including HD) provided by what was Telewest (now Virgin Media) in the UK, it's a great alternative to rentals, but not buying discs. You get to watch it as many times as you like for 24 hours, but after that, if you want to watch it again, you have to pay out full price. I can only see a service like this really making a dent in HD disc rentals, not sales.

don't forget the Netflix announcement as well (box top download system). Within 10 to 15 years I think movies will be done more like music with downloads leading the way but physical media still available

don't forget the Netflix announcement as well (box top download system). Within 10 to 15 years I think movies will be done more like music with downloads leading the way but physical media still available
Downloads may do well for rentals. Physical media will dominate sales for the next decade, at minimum.

If it's anything like the cable VOD service (including HD) provided by what was Telewest (now Virgin Media) in the UK, it's a great alternative to rentals, but not buying discs. You get to watch it as many times as you like for 24 hours, but after that, if you want to watch it again, you have to pay out full price. I can only see a service like this really making a dent in HD disc rentals, not sales.

Comcast has two different services available to their subs:

VOD - On Demand - comes with service. Movies and TV shows you can access anytime you want - stop and pause, etc. 100's to choose from. You pay nothing extra.

PPV - Pay Per View - $5 or $6 (HD) for a "new" movie - have 24 hours to watch it as many times as you want.

Comcast's "announcement" doesn't really have much substance. It says they are working to increase bandwidth and, when they do, they plan to offer more VOD. Is this a surprise to anyone?

Remember that quality-wise HDTV != HDM.

HDTV broadcasts whether OTA, cable, satellite, fiber, etc. are heavily compressed and generally are DD audio at best. True HDM "downloads" would have to be on par with Blu-ray/HD-DVD to be competitive from a quality standpoint.

Of course, mp3 is more popular than CD is more popular than SACD, so quality is only one part of the pie of success. To most on these forums though I would think you'd want your HDM "downloads" to be at least Blu-ray/HD-DVD quality.

In regards to this thread, in the lab, DOCSIS 3.0 is capable of delivering this level of quality in a download within minutes. Even streaming Blu-ray/HD-DVD quality is possible at these speeds.

That is going to be a very difficult thing to do. The HD "OTA" providers do not publish numbers on the number of HD subscribers they have. Every now and then we get a crumb of info.

How do we make a list? by dollars spent? Number of people with an HD STB or player?

What ever the list is . . . . HDM is at the bottom.

Sony has already thrown their 2008 forecast out for BD. They said that they will go from $170 million to $1 billion in the year 2008. But their projections have always been off and are nothing more than forward looking statements.

One analysist has said that by 2011 more than 50% of all households will have a DVR while another has said that HDM will be in 25% of all households in the same time period.

You are trying to nail JELL-O to the wall.

i am asking for predictions...of course we cant be 100% certain.:)

Comcast's "announcement" doesn't really have much substance. It says they are working to increase bandwidth and, when they do, they plan to offer more VOD. Is this a surprise to anyone?


This is their reaction to SAT's going to 100 HD channels while CBL is stuck at 20 due to bandwidth issues.

They are calling each program "a channel" because if you change channels (or in this case watch different movies or shows) - it's in essence the same thing. . . . which it really isn't. More of the "funny" math:p

Comcast is worthless.

I live in a COLLEGE TOWN. College is a lot different now than it was 15 or even 10 years ago. Kids get lots of loan money and they have lots of electronic toys. On Demand isn't available in my area and won't be until 2009. I get HD Cable with my 30 some odd channels and that be it. I mean I don't even get Discovery Channel in HD. Only reason I even pay for HD anymore is because you have to have HD to get a DVR and it cost me no more extra per month than Tivo would after factoring in the equipment cost.

My parents live 60 miles north of me... 25 minutes from the largest city in Oregon, and they can't even get Comcast.

I hope Verizon comes through and gives them a swift kick in the ass. Comcast needs a quality bump... ASAP.

Comcast has two different services available to their subs:

Sounds very similar to Virgin Media's service here in the UK then, except that all the movies here are PPV - at pretty high rates: £4 for 24-hour access to a new HD movie (£3.50 for SD) or £2-2.50 for a catalog title.

http://allyours.virginmedia.com/html/dtv/ondemand/index.html

It certainly stopped me renting discs, but hasn't helped curb my disc buying addiction ;)

Comcast has two different services available to their subs:

VOD - On Demand - comes with service. Movies and TV shows you can access anytime you want - stop and pause, etc. 100's to choose from. You pay nothing extra.

Not exactly true. First you have to subscribe to Comcast Digital which is more expensive then basic cable. Second, I have Comcast Digital with On Demand and it's pretty good but lately I've been blocked off from watching certain On Demand content (Not premium channel content like HBO mind you but regular On Demand categories) because I wasn't on a higher tier subscription. I was so pissed. :/

I don't think your predication is anywhere close to realistic. HD-DVD will probably have disappeared by this time next year (or at least be in single digits of HDM market share). There is no way VOD will have the other 45% unless by VOD you include HD content watched via a DVR. Unfortunately except for TivoHD, the DVRs are all crap and with Tivo you need to get a cable card to work which is no fun (ask me how I know).

Cable companies suck, and DBS companies probably suck but I wouldn't know since I live in an apartment.

I'm still confused with what is being discussed here. Comcasts announcement is not a VOD distribution in the traditional sense. It is not an on-demand broadcast. It's a direct download from a server via the Internet. I think you're comparing apples to oranges here. This is completely different from what we call VOD today. Agreed that overall the companies themselves leave a lot to be desired, but the technology is there.

I'm not holding my breath for Comcast to do anything. They don't allow enough bandwidth for artifact free HD now. Think the OnDemand stuff will be OAR?? Ha! Although we know OAR doesn't matter to the general population, and they probably won't notice the artifacts.

larry

This also sounds promising but we will have to wait to see how it pans out.

http://www.engadgethd.com/2008/01/08/xstreamhd-details-continue-to-emerge/

For starters, the service promises to deliver "the latest content from leading studios" in 1080p (MPEG-2 and x.264) with 7.1 channels of lossless DTS-HD Master Audio (96kHz/24bits) to your home via satellite, and if it stopped there it would be impressive enough, but no. The content is stored on the internally in your "Virtual Personal Library" until you access it with up to four simultaneous DLNA devices on your gigabit Ethernet home network.

As if this wasn't unbelievable enough, it all starts at $399 and is expected to hit in the fourth quarter of '08.

Agreed that overall the companies themselves leave a lot to be desired, but the technology is there.

All the technology in the world is no good if the people deploying it are morons.

thats like saying sirrus and xm will kill cd sales.

The biggest difference about cable and VOD vs. optical discs is the simple thing about ownership. Comcast offers channels of HD content, but I don't think it would affect a user's decision to buy unless they remove DRM and let people copy the HD content to their heart's desire (which will probably cause another huge DRM fight).

HDM and HD channels IMHO complementary technologies not competing. Eventually d/l's will be preferred, but I don't see this happening in the next 5-10 years without a huge upgrade in bandwidth (above 100mbps consistently, and not peak bandwidth). We aren't in Korea or Japan, so I have no real hopes of high speeds matching what our int'l counterparts get.

-splints

i am all for higher internet speeds but at what cost heck my cable bill thanks its in a
race with my electric bill now.

Have you ever tried to use Comcast's HD on-demand service? They keep coming up with excuses about how "too many people are trying to access the same item" and "line conditions are not optimal" whenever I have (constant) problems trying to view content in HD. I've never thought about renting an HD item b/c of the poorness so far and the off-the-cuff excuses about it not working.

I've unplugged my HD DVR so many times having to do as they ask that I've given up temporariliy on HD on demand services. This is all the while that their SD on demand stuff works perfectly :(. If they don't correct this, they will have no slice of that pie!Hmm... in my area Comcast HD on-demand is pretty good. Almost on par with the physical media for picture, but the sould quality is a far cry. that being said, I would use their service much more often if they were to lower their prices. $6 for an HD movie from Comcast ot Xbox Marketplace is way too much. get'em down to $4 and I'll be an on-demand junkee.

i am all for higher internet speeds but at what cost heck my cable bill thanks its in a
race with my electric bill now.

No $^!+! Both my cable and power were running almost $300 each last month. What happened to the days of $25 cable and $40 power bills!

i am all for higher internet speeds but at what cost heck my cable bill thanks its in a
race with my electric bill now.

Verizon FiOS now boasts of 50 Mbps download speed

Only a month after they began offering a symmetrical 20 Mpbs download and upload speed option for their FiOS internet service, Verizon has announced that for double the price of the current service, users can get download speeds of maximum 50 Mbps along with 20 Mbps uploads.

Although just the thought of those speeds must excite file sharers, the prices may not. The fastest option will cost you $139.95 USD per month while the slower connection will run you $69.99 USD per month.
http://www.afterdawn.com/news/archive/11918.cfm

$139.95/month for internet?

What a deal!

And I get to pay for digital downloads on top of that!

But only after I pay for a set-top box to download those digital files to.