View Full Version : An example of a high bitrate digital download service that does not use the internet
namechamps 01-08-08, 03:17 PM Since there is a lot of talk about Digital Media and many people can't seem to get the "PC connected to the internet picture out of their mind" and thus have arguments like (people don't want movies on PC or internet is too slow) maybe this will help people see that Digital Media will be delivered over a variety of methods that will constantly evolve. Not just this service but dozens using fios, cable, fixed wireless, sat, solid state, kiosks. Digital is very flexible and while some will fail others will push the envelope.
http://www.engadget.com/2008/01/08/xstreamhd-details-continue-to-emerge/
http://www.engadget.com/2008/01/08/xstreamhd-unveiled-press-conference-live/
I am quoting the reporter from engadget and the text has lots of spelling errors and is somewhat confusing so don't blame me it is what he wrote.
Gorge Gonzales, the Creator of XStreamHD takes the podium. He continues to build up the "ultimate experience" with the qualify and connivence of delivering on "your schedule." Whole home solution with two products, a home media server and HD receiver. It's not VOD, but we think it's better. The movie selection process is mimicked, not receiving channels or providers. You'll have full access to the information about every movie, and the Media Server helps you select content you'll find interesting, like all of Michael Douglas' movies. So there isn't a need to search a schedule, just a list of available titles that are you'd find interesting. You can rent or own the content. The devcies are DLNA Certified, so it works with any game console (PS3), HDTV, PC or AVR that is DLNA certified -- even the Pioneer Blu-ray player. Wow, that's hot! The media server can distribute over gigabit Ethernet to up to four devices in the home simultaneously, at 1080p. We are reminded of the partnerships with DTS and Seagate for DTS-HD MA and 2TB of storage. This is a new transport method to copy a digital master to you from the studio.
The titles are delivered via satellite, but there are only two licenses for sat are already in use, so they use the existing satellites -- wonder how many dishes that will take? We know the titles are coming out in advanced, so the information is passed on to you, so the day it is released, it gets delivered to the Media Server. We can do on demand over the satellite, but also over the internet. They support both MPEG-2 and MPEG-4 (x.264) with support for high level, high profile. With bitrates in excess of 80 Mbps! At the booth is a NBC Universal clip at the maximum bit rate, and is on display at the booth. So rather than being like most low bit rate HD of other download services, XStreamHD is offering the highest. Although they support many audio codecs, losless like DTS-HD MA is also supported, so rather being stuck in 1997 with Dolby Digital you can take advantage of the latest. It also features a OTA HD tuner, with three ATSC tuners and everything is stored in the "Personal Library." "I loved my TiVo, till I got a XStreamHD channel" I hated always missing programs when the sporting events ran over, so they have "Adaptive Recording" (patent pending) to automatically adjust the start and stop time.Some Questions by the press members:
Q. Scott, Satellite Gusy, What sats will you be using.
Launch in October in N. America.
Q. Shane from Home Theater, deals with studios and release dates day and date?
A. No signed deals at this time, but the studios are supportive, the deal will come as the service rolls out. The studios can release them day and date, but it's up to them.
Q. Subscription or per item?
A. It should be a hybrid model, but it depends on the studio.
Q. David with luxury CE, CEDIA type installers, or retail presence?
A. Initially will be direct market, via XStreamHD.com, and will use professional installers and self installed -- nice.
Q. Ellen, Tribute Media Services, advertising on the box and will there be a Michael Douglas channel?
A. Again, a service level question, which will depend on the studios.
Q. John from Widescreen review, can users use an external storage?
A. The server will mount on a wall or in a cabinet, and features dual drive bays, and can be easily self installed. Three models, 500GB, 1TB, and 2TB. Plus there is a eSATA port for additional, but internal is easier.
Q. Is this a replacement for my primary provider?
A. We have no relationship with DirecTV, but we are an open system, so we'd love to work with them. But we can access music from DLNA sources as well.
Q. How do you solve the desire for instant gratification?
A. Talking about technology, but not really answering the question. But the business would have to decide to do "on demand" in about 15 minutes, but they don't believe that is what consumers want. He reaffirms his model, which is more like Netflix's queue than VOD.
Q. Earl from DBSTalk.com, what about those who can't install a dish?
A. There be MDU options as well.
Q. What about HDMI 1.3?
A. Yes we support HDMI 1.3 for decoded multi-channel audio, the receiver is fanless and component and SPDIF is supported as well. You can also choose to output bitstream audio.Maybe this service will fail but others will keep trying. I hope people see that the internet will be used but it is only one "pipe". There are a large number of methods to move digital content and the market will evolve. Microsoft, Sony, netflix, blockbuster, comcast, timewarner, verizon are all dumping money into R&D because in 10-20 years the idea that content (of any form) can only be delivered, viewed, owned on a shiny spinning disc is laughable.
There are a lot of questions about this service left unanswered but it is interesting. If they can pull of a "hybrid" netflix style model I would sign up.
namechamps 01-08-08, 03:19 PM A couple more facts.
Just a few hours before our live coverage of the XStreamHD press event (11am PST) with Michael Douglas; many of the details have been released and we have to say this thing looks so incredible, we don't see how it can live up to the press release -- this is one of those times when we'd really love to be wrong. For starters, the service promises to deliver "the latest content from leading studios" in 1080p (MPEG-2 and x.264) with 7.1 channels of lossless DTS-HD Master Audio (96kHz/24bits) to your home via satellite, and if it stopped there it would be impressive enough, but no. The content is stored on the internally in your "Virtual Personal Library" until you access it with up to four simultaneous DLNA devices on your gigabit Ethernet home network. If you run out of space, you can use the extra drive bays to expand up to 2TB of storage. And because there is so much great OTA HD content, it features three ATSC tuners which can be used with a "Network Video Recorder" -- not sure what that is, or if its extra. And interestingly even includes a PBX that allows free calling between XStreamHD customers. As if this wasn't unbelievable enough, it all starts at $399 and is expected to hit in the fourth quarter of '08.
kevivoe 01-08-08, 03:19 PM I'm in ... where to buy?
highdeflover 01-08-08, 03:20 PM Questions:
1) How much for the hardware?
2) How much for the software?
3) Retail availability of the hardware/service?
4) Percentage of HDM market controlled by this format?
When it beats Blu-Ray in cost, availability, and popularity, wake me up.
Everdog 01-08-08, 03:23 PM I am one of those people who put most of my DVDs on a home media sever. It makes life easier and you don't have to wrry about misplaced or scratched discs.
This looks really cool and may be a good HD replacement of that.
kevivoe 01-08-08, 03:24 PM Questions:
1) How much for the hardware?
2) How much for the software?
3) Retail availability of the hardware/service?
4) Percentage of HDM market controlled by this format?
When it beats Blu-Ray in cost, availability, and popularity, wake me up.
I guess you never read the article. $399 for the box.
eskimo2176 01-08-08, 03:27 PM Smells like Voom to me.
mproper 01-08-08, 03:27 PM Sounds promising, if they can deliver the $399 price, a reasonable subscription or PPV cost, and content.
I'll keep my eye out.
I also find it interesting that you can hook up external drives (unlike most commerically available stuff **cough XBOX360 and Comcast** that forces you to use some overpriced proprietary drive or limited low-capacity drive.
I guess you never read the article. $399 for the box.
Well its not $99 or less so most people around here will not be interested...
42Plasmaman 01-08-08, 03:30 PM Of course, this SERVICE will cost you a monthly fee around $50-100 depending on bandwidth and movie/title viewing per month.
We get it. Digital download is here but it will cost you to PAY a MONTHLY subscription fee and once the subscription is over, no movies for you.
highdeflover 01-08-08, 03:30 PM I guess you never read the article. $399 for the box.
Sounds like VUDU v2. Another flop.
kevivoe 01-08-08, 03:33 PM Well its not $99 or less so most people around here will not be interested...
Interestingly enough it is priced the exact same as the lowest cost PS3 but delivers 80 Mbps bit rate for all of those bit rate meter watchers on the PS3 that saw maybe 48 Mbps.
kevivoe 01-08-08, 03:35 PM Of course, this SERVICE will cost you a monthly fee around $50-100 depending on bandwidth and movie/title viewing per month.
We get it. Digital download is here but it will cost you to PAY a MONTHLY subscription fee and once the subscription is over, no movies for you.
I am not advocating this service but when I look back at my 53 HDM disc purchases over the past 18 months I see I paid on average $72 per month, not counting all of the SD-DVD's I also purchased.
eapleitez 01-08-08, 03:36 PM Digital download will never replace hard discs. It's not setting foot in my home.
highdeflover 01-08-08, 03:38 PM Well this is certainly another risky early adopter technology to dump your money into.
Just don't be surprised if 12 months later, you find yourself with another expensive doorstop.
kevivoe 01-08-08, 03:38 PM Digital download will never replace hard discs. It's not setting foot in my home.
That's what they said about iTunes and CD's
mproper 01-08-08, 03:41 PM Can't wait to hear what the service fee is. Even if it was $50, You could look at it like this:
$399 for a PS3 + $20/month for Netflix
or
$399 for this box + $50/month for this service
Of course, with this, you don't have to worry about long queue waits, throttling, scratched discs, slow mail (and no mail on Sundays and Holidays), etc.
Assuming they can actually deliver this system, it would a tough call to see if it's worth the added cost.
I am definitely interested, but am not "sold' until more info comes out (and if it ends up being vaporware). I get a feeling this announcement was to garner studio interest and investors, and might not actually get off the ground.
highdeflover 01-08-08, 03:42 PM That's what they said about iTunes and CD's
That's what 90% of the music market still says about iTunes.
In fact, the percentage of households that have purchased music from iTunes is in the low single digits.
RAVEN56706 01-08-08, 03:45 PM should be interesting but i want to actually keep the movies and not rent
42Plasmaman 01-08-08, 03:49 PM I am not advocating this service but when I look back at my 53 HDM disc purchases over the past 18 months I see I paid on average $72 per month, not counting all of the SD-DVD's I also purchased.
But then you can watch those titles as many times as you desire without any reoccuring costs or if you don't want them anymore, you could sell them and recoupe some of your investment.
When you subscribe to a service, you have nothing tangable to use/review after you cancel the subscription.
It's just a matter of do you want to take the bus/train(if in theory it got you to your destination in a reasonable amount of time) to work/destination or drive your car which you own.
Apollo 13 01-08-08, 03:50 PM How many ppl will want to set up a Home network for this?
namechamps 01-08-08, 03:56 PM Of course, this SERVICE will cost you a monthly fee around $50-100 depending on bandwidth and movie/title viewing per month.
We get it. Digital download is here but it will cost you to PAY a MONTHLY subscription fee and once the subscription is over, no movies for you.
You and I have no idea what the cost per month is. The press release said a hybrid of subscription, rental, and purchase.
I for one would love subscription. I pay a subscription for netflix. Once I stop paying the movies stop arriving. I don't feel ripped off. A netflix type model even with a cap. Say $30 per month for 20 movies would be amazing in my book.
Maybe it won't work I don't know why it upsets you. I have no stock in this service, HD DVD or BD. If it is too expensive or doesn't provide value for the consumer then they won't sell enough product and go bankrupt. Capitalism at it's best.
If I can get 20 movies per month from netflix for $19.95 but this service would end up costing me $100 per month for the same amount of content. Guess what I won't buy it. Eventually the studios will wise up that beaming a signal through the air costs a tiny fraction of moving a million discs through the mail each year.
Remember this is not a 1:1 signal like sat internet. One signal is received by all the users (1, 100, 1000, 10 million). The bandwidth costs are next to nothing. Dedicated sat bandwidth costs about $5K to $10K per Mbps. 10Mbps of dedicated signal should be <$1 million annually and would push out 3.2Terabytes worth of content each month. Your box just grabs the stuff you "like". Starting to see how the bandwidth would be a token cost.
Another way to look at it is BD has 400 titles release or 15TB worth of content over the last 18months. This system (even if it is only 10Mbps) could push (assuming there was enough content) 57.6TB worth of content in the same amount of time. Your box just grabs what you like and discards the rest.
How much does it cost netflix to pay for thousands of discs, 1 million snail mail postages, 12 warehouses, and a couple hundred employees?
As costs for delivery go down the studios can get a bigger chunk of change. To release a new movie on BD would cost say $3 per disc if you count pressing, packaging, postage (I am being generous). So to sell 1 million copies would cost the studios $3 million. To push the movie out via sat broadcast would cost about $5 in bandwidth regardless of if it grabbed by one person or one million. $2.999995 million less costs = $2.99999995 more profit.
namechamps 01-08-08, 04:01 PM How many ppl will want to set up a Home network for this?
Then don't put the server in your media rack or closet and hook to your HDTV.
But if you wanted to buy 4 receivers (or 4 DNLA devices like the PS3 or Panny's BD player) you could hook up to 4 HDTV to the same server.
You don't need a network. I wouldn't think the option to network it would be a bad thing. :D
namechamps 01-08-08, 04:15 PM should be interesting but i want to actually keep the movies and not rent
According to the press event you can. "You can rent or own the content."
eddiscus 01-08-08, 04:46 PM Ok, I have a slight interest. Cost of equipment is not that bad if it offeres 1080P high bit rate and HD audio formats.
Which sattelites are they going to use as I have a LOS issue with direct TV bird but am ok with the old Voom Bird.
They seriously have to re consider the cost of rentals and purchase. We the end user are laying out the expense for the equipment saving the movie industry the expense of disk production.
No monthly fee only charge for actual rental or purchase
I would be ok with 25% off of current rental and purchase fees. Otherwise this will die the death of moviebeam.
As another poster said another large doorstop.:rolleyes:
johnny15 01-08-08, 04:54 PM According to the press event you can. "You can rent or own the content."
That is until your hard drive takes a dump and then you've got none of your movies!!!! Unless my house burns down, I can handle replacing a scratched disc or two.... :rolleyes:
anotheraviator 01-08-08, 04:55 PM Having worked for the local cable company years ago.. I can vouch that the future of downloads have ZIP to do with the Internet.
Anyone that has a cable modem should realize that the entire Internet offering by the cable company to ALL of their customers is actually only utilizing a fraction of a channel's bandwidth capacity. One channel. Of the hundreds.
http://computer.howstuffworks.com/cable-modem2.htm
You see... in order to allow for advanced services like VOD and high speed broadband, the cable companies did a massive upgrade many years ago switching from coax runs to fibre optic runs right to your street. That gives them the ability to use and at speeds fast enough to dump Blu-ray disc contents in seconds. While there is still enough capacity left on the coax to do decent sized movies on demand, an upgrade from coax to the home to fibre will guarantee the ability to move large amounts of data very quickly.
You are all forgetting the OTHER opponent in this format war. You are all too busy thinking Microsoft, HD-DVD, Bluray... when in reality, the cable company holds the trump card.
namechamps 01-08-08, 04:56 PM Ok, I have a slight interest. Cost of equipment is not that bad if it offeres 1080P high bit rate and HD audio formats.
Which sattelites are they going to use as I have a LOS issue with direct TV bird but am ok with the old Voom Bird.
They seriously have to re consider the cost of rentals and purchase. We the end user are laying out the expense for the equipment saving the movie industry the expense of disk production.
No monthly fee only charge for actual rental or purchase
I would be ok with 25% off of current rental and purchase fees. Otherwise this will die the death of moviebeam.
As another poster said another large doorstop.:rolleyes:
All very good points. I think we will get some coming answers in next couple months. From the press release it sounds like it is a new sat launching in Oct that they are leasing bandwidth. Maybe we can find out who is launching a DBS sat in Oct and it's orbital slot.
It is entirely possible the system fails because the studios don't wake up to the financial implications (took studios long time to realize people will buy digital music but not if you try to slam them with more DRM & higher prices).
namechamps 01-08-08, 05:01 PM That is until your hard drive takes a dump and then you've got none of your movies!!!! Unless my house burns down, I can handle replacing a scratched disc or two.... :rolleyes:
If the system constantly streams the same TB worth of data every month it wouldn't cost anything for them to replace your lost movies. It might take a couple weeks but the data would be constantly re-pushed. We don't know why assume the worst. Like I said before if it doesn't offer value to the consumer it will fail. It still needs to complete with HDM, DVD, HD on demand, Tivo, OTA, and tons of other ways to get content.
I downloaded a lot of tunes on URGE and when my HDD crashed I "lost everything". Once I finished restoring my backup I realized I hadn't backed up my music. I loaded URGE and selected resync and it redownloaded all my content. My total cost $0.00. There is no reason it can't be done with movies.
eapleitez 01-08-08, 08:31 PM That's what they said about iTunes and CD's
I have never used iTunes, nor do I own an iPod. I buy CDs and rip them to my mp3 player.
I am one of those people who put most of my DVDs on a home media sever. It makes life easier and you don't have to wrry about misplaced or scratched discs.
This looks really cool and may be a good HD replacement of that.
How do you accomplish this?
I am very interested in this type of setup.......I would rather own a drm encrusted file then a disc any day. I also would like to be able to access a library of media not just have to accept what BB or hollywood might stock...like Netflix has. I believe MS will have a unit like this as well.:)
eddiscus 01-09-08, 09:03 AM Finished viewing the content on http://xstreamhd.com
There are some unanswered questions about the media server as if the HDD can be configured as Raid 1 or 5 config. So you would have a back up of your purchased media. It did mention that you would be able to connect a USB HDD to perform storage of purchased movies. Don't know about a NAS drive such as the Buffalo 1 or 2TB drives.
I do like the concept that you get to select from the list of available and soon to be available movies and the service will download them to your server. Don't know when you get billed (at time of selection or when it is viewed)
There was also mention that it will start to learn you preferences like Tivo and offer selections to you based on movie type, Actor ETC.
Disk based content was good while it lasted.:eek:
I have a feeling the Disk based manufactures are going to leverage very hard to keep XstreamHD from developing into the service it is capable of becoming. :(
johnny15 01-09-08, 10:14 AM Finished viewing the content on http://xstreamhd.com
There are some unanswered questions about the media server as if the HDD can be configured as Raid 1 or 5 config. So you would have a back up of your purchased media. It did mention that you would be able to connect a USB HDD to perform storage of purchased movies. Don't know about a NAS drive such as the Buffalo 1 or 2TB drives.
I do like the concept that you get to select from the list of available and soon to be available movies and the service will download them to your server. Don't know when you get billed (at time of selection or when it is viewed)
There was also mention that it will start to learn you preferences like Tivo and offer selections to you based on movie type, Actor ETC.
Disk based content was good while it lasted.:eek:
I have a feeling the Disk based manufactures are going to leverage very hard to keep XstreamHD from developing into the service it is capable of becoming. :(
Raid is expensive and I've heard it before.....storage is cheap blah blah blah. It's really not that cheap when you start talking about larger drives. And I don't know about you, but I don't watch movies in just one place.... I watch them in my basement, my living room, bedroom, and my son's room..... Now we're looking at have the house networked and there are millions of homes that don't have this or want to have this.
The_Stig 01-09-08, 11:38 AM isnt this concept similar to like HD PVRs, Tivo or the HD on demand/PPV. If this hasnt eliminated the DVD, i dont think this new digital download thing will eliminate BluRay/HDDVD or whatever storage media is going to be around. besides i think most people who buy movies like to have something they can hold in their hands. otherwise they would already downloaded it on torrents for free.
doublejack 01-09-08, 12:12 PM Of course, this SERVICE will cost you a monthly fee around $50-100 depending on bandwidth and movie/title viewing per month.
We get it. Digital download is here but it will cost you to PAY a MONTHLY subscription fee and once the subscription is over, no movies for you.
1. Nobody has a clue what the monthly service fee will be. You're pulling numbers out of your backside.
2. Isn't a TiVo basically a PVR with a monthly service fee? Yet millions of people are more than willing to pay for the convenience.
3. For people that watch a lot of movies, this service could save them a ton of money. It depends on the price structure.
Digital download will never replace hard discs. It's not setting foot in my home.
We have the Amish that won't progress into the 20th century, and now it looks like the birth of a new group of people that won't go with everyone else into the 21st century.
That's what 90% of the music market still says about iTunes.
In fact, the percentage of households that have purchased music from iTunes is in the low single digits.
Fact: iTunes is the #3 Retailer (http://www.betanews.com/article/NPD_iTunes_Now_3_Music_Retailer/1182537375) of music in the US. Yes, that is only 10% of the market, but the download market is actually growing whereas the disc market is shrinking.
Where are you coming up with your "low single digits" statistic. I find that incredibly hard to believe.
That is until your hard drive takes a dump and then you've got none of your movies!!!! Unless my house burns down, I can
handle replacing a scratched disc or two.... :rolleyes:
RAID, or back it up. There's absolutely no reason to lose data on a computer, except for human error or carelessness.
Raid is expensive and I've heard it before.....storage is cheap blah blah blah. It's really not that cheap when you start talking about larger drives. And I don't know about you, but I don't watch movies in just one place.... I watch them in my basement, my living room, bedroom, and my son's room..... Now we're looking at have the house networked and there are millions of homes that don't have this or want to have this.
LOL, RAID is cheap. Very cheap. It's even in the name - Redundant Array of Inexpensive Disks.
isnt this concept similar to like HD PVRs, Tivo or the HD on demand/PPV. If this hasnt eliminated the DVD, i dont think this new digital download thing will eliminate BluRay/HDDVD or whatever storage media is going to be around. besides i think most people who buy movies like to have something they can hold in their hands. otherwise they would already downloaded it on torrents for free.
This concept is like TiVo + digital downloads. TiVo by itself lacks the ability to buy movies, ergo it isn't a competitor to DVD. This on the other hand will compete with BD because it does offer the option of purchasing and permanently keeping movies.
johnny15 01-09-08, 01:25 PM LOL, RAID is cheap. Very cheap. It's even in the name - Redundant Array of Inexpensive Disks.
RAID...."Redundant Arrays of Independent Drives"....
Anyway, expense is relative.....if you're talking about what a corporation sees as expensive....probably not (where RAID is mainly used), but to an individual, yes, it can be expensive....
doublejack 01-09-08, 02:23 PM RAID...."Redundant Arrays of Independent Drives"....
Anyway, expense is relative.....if you're talking about what a corporation sees as expensive....probably not (where RAID is mainly used), but to an individual, yes, it can be expensive....
No, the original acronym for RAID is exactly what I said. "Redundant Arrays of Inexpensive Drives/Disks" (the original definition)". Taken straight from wikipedia (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/RAID). I've been in IT for 15 years and can tell you for a fact that's what the original intention of RAID was - putting together several inexpensive drives to act as one larger & pricier drive.
And RAID is cheap for everyone. If you can afford a computer, you can afford RAID. That's reality. Many newer motherboards have RAID controllers built in. If you need to buy one you can find them for as little as $50. Hard drives are also very inexpensive.
p0tempkin 01-09-08, 02:26 PM RAID is so cheap and easy, any grandmother can do it.
In fact, my grandmother finds that setting up RAID arrays to backup her digital downloads is 100x easier than buying a physical disc, sticking it in the player, and hitting play.
p0tempkin 01-09-08, 02:33 PM 1. Nobody has a clue what the monthly service fee will be. You're pulling numbers out of your backside.
Just like you have no clue how expensive it will be, because you're discussing vaporware.
2. Isn't a TiVo basically a PVR with a monthly service fee? Yet millions of people are more than willing to pay for the convenience.
3. For people that watch a lot of movies, this service could save them a ton of money. It depends on the price structure.
Basically, the HD download market has one area of growth: rentals. Even then, physical media will still dominate the rental scene for the near future, and physical media will completely own the home video sales market.
We have the Amish that won't progress into the 20th century, and now it looks like the birth of a new group of people that won't go with everyone else into the 21st century.
So now you're referring to the 90% of people who still buy physical audio discs as Amish?
HPforMe 01-09-08, 02:34 PM According to the press event you can. "You can rent or own the content."
Interesting to see how this is possible. Does it mean I can burn it to dvd and sell it later like I could my purchased HDM? And I don't mean burning the purchased dvd, keeping the copy and selling the original either!
Just because this service may exist, that doesn't mean you can't buy disc if you want to.
Afterall, I assume many of you pay a montly service fee for HBOHD, ShowtimeHD etc. None of those are on a disc. Why do you find this version of download so threatening?
doublejack 01-09-08, 03:36 PM Just like you have no clue how expensive it will be, because you're discussing vaporware.
This particular product hasn't come to market yet, true. But even if it doesn't, it is just one of many products of this variety that are coming.
Basically, the HD download market has one area of growth: rentals. Even then, physical media will still dominate the rental scene for the near future, and physical media will completely own the home video sales market.
Digital distribution can change the entire concept of ownership. We may no longer have the "rental" market vs. the "buy-to-own" market. What we may have are subscription based offerings that provide access to everything, eliminating the need to rent or own.
Lets take someone that owns 1,000 DVDs and assume they paid an average of $10 a piece. That represents a $10k investment.
Now let's say there's a subscription based VOD service that costs $400 to buy the set-top box and $75 a month to subscribe to. And let's say they have something like 50,000 different movies that can all be played any time at no additional charge, as many times as you want.
So you can own 1,000 DVDs, or buy the VOD box and subscribe to their service for 10 years and 6 months and gain access to 50x the movie options. Both have the same hypothetical cost.
I think the latter option is where the industry is ultimately heading. The music industry already has services like this, such as Rhapsody. Whether or not it's worth it will be an individual choice, and it will depend on what the monthly subscription rates are and how many movies the viewer watches.
So now you're referring to the 90% of people who still buy physical audio discs as Amish?
It's an analogy. Someone flatly saying "I'll never go media-less" is just like the Amish refusing to drive cars. It's their choice, but it's against the direction society is headed. CD sales fall year after year, and B&M music stores are going extinct. Meanwhile iTunes grows at a breakneck pace.
As all the iPod toting teenies buying music on iTunes get better jobs and start making considerably more money the world of physical media will be in serious, catastrophic decline... if it doesn't happen before then.
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