Too many of us here at AVS forum...Warner dealt a death blow to HD DVD....On the other hand, many fell it is merely a set back... I know where I stand but would like to know where other HD DVD owners stand on this... The poll is simple..

Where do you see HD DVD in 2 years:

1. HD DVD disposes of Blu Ray in the movie market...... Or HD DVD simply Supplants Blu Ray. HD DVD will likely have taken root in the USA in 2 years and the cheap players will make for a reversal of fortune for HD DVD to resurrect it from the [apparent] dead. HD DVD has overcome Blu Ray despite Blu Ray's current stronghold on the format war lead. HD DVD will be how we all buy HD content and BLu Ray will be for storage and/or games.

2. HD DVD will coexist with Blu Ray. They may or may not have any exclusive studios in 2 years but Toshiba will continue to make players and the b e it for mass storage or some other use for HD DVD, it will continue to be manufactured and used by consumers in some manner or another.

3. HD DVD will no longer exist. Blu Ray wins. Toshiba will likely sell out all the players they have in stock at fire sale prices (a last gasp of air). Universal and Paramount will ride out their exclusivity contracts (or not) and go to the Blu side so as to sell more software and HD DVD will cease to exist with virtually no movie softeware...no more software and no more players.

4. I'm a conspiracy theorist. HD downloads will end the short reign of HD DVD and Blu Ray. Or DVD will reign supreme as people will get their HD from cable, satellite or just plain forget it and go back to DVD. Certainly this will never happen but I just can't stand this war and hope, in a hail Mary pass, this might...just might....happen and both sides implode..

Mostly 3 with a little 2.

edit - I chose HD DVD folds, because the option above it didn't account for Blu-ray having 100% studio support, which I think it will have by the 2008 Holidays.

HD DVD disposes of Blu Ray in the movie market...... Or HD DVD simply Supplants Blu Ray. HD DVD will likely have taken root in the USA in 2 years and the cheap players will make for a reversal of fortune for HD DVD to resurrect it from the [apparent] dead. HD DVD will overcome Blu Ray despite Blu Ray's current stronghold on the format war lead. HD DVD will be how we all buy HD content and BLu Ray will be for storage and/or games.

WB will find out they backed a wrong horse in this race.

none of the above. ;)

2 then 4 on the 3rd or 4th year.

None of the above but a little bit of 4 & 3.
Without enough new releases, HD DVD will see very few if any new customers.
A good portion(40-60%) of existing HD DVDers will buy a couple new releases but mainly Netflix waiting for a full-featured affordable BR player.

By Xmas '08 Toshiba, Universal, Paramount and Dreamworks formally end their HD DVD committment in the face of growing but still miniscule HDM market share.

Blu-ray will become the de facto standard and see an increase in market penetration to 5% by Xmas '08. That will be the high-water mark.
Even though Feb '09 is looming, a stagnant economy and the not yet bottomed-out housing market will make Xmas '08 lackluster for CE sales.
Many consumers will opt out of digital TV for the time being with Govt subsidized converters.

A combination of high media prices, lack of content and the unwillingness of most consumers to double-dip at $20+ will hamstring BR from achieving wider adoption before other alternatives get a foothold.

I think HD DVD will still be here in 2 years.

No option for HD DVD and Blu Ray parity which is where I think it will be. Perhaps HD DVD slightly ahead if Chinese influence kicks in. Then again if the Chinese influence is really good with inexpensive players HD DVD could be in the lead. Sony will not let Blu Ray die so it will kick along as well.

The real driver will come when the new digital TV kicks in and folks begin to replace thier TVs. Nothing but HD is available in the stores today. When the changeover occurs HD will take off.

christmas 08 will tell you what will happen.

No option for HD DVD and Blu Ray parity which is where I think it will be. Perhaps HD DVD slightly ahead if Chinese influence kicks in. Then again if the Chinese influence is really good with inexpensive players HD DVD could be in the lead. Sony will not let Blu Ray die so it will kick along as well.

.

I thought of that scenario for a quick sencond but quickly dropped it as that scenario is impossible.:)

I thought of that scenario for a quick sencond but quickly dropped it as that scenario is impossible.:)

However unlikely it is only impossible to those wearing the thick blu goggles.

No option for HD DVD and Blu Ray parity which is where I think it will be. Perhaps HD DVD slightly ahead if Chinese influence kicks in. Then again if the Chinese influence is really good with inexpensive players HD DVD could be in the lead. Sony will not let Blu Ray die so it will kick along as well.

The real driver will come when the new digital TV kicks in and folks begin to replace thier TVs. Nothing but HD is available in the stores today. When the changeover occurs HD will take off.

You make a good point. I'm not going to vote in this poll since there is no "parity" option. Even if that option was there, I would only vote for it as an exercise in wishful thinking. Although I am officially dual format, I'd like to see HD DVD survive... but I can't say I am optimistic at this point in time.

While 4 may come to pass, I doubt it will happen within two years. So I'm voting for 3, but with an asterisk for a little bit of 2. That is, I think Blu Ray will clearly be the only active system for HDM in the movie marketplace.

I'm red from the Black Friday sales, and I love my A3 and 40 or so discs, so it saddens me.

The asterisk is that I think HD DVD may well survive as a storage medium for computers, simply because Toshiba, a very major laptop player, has started to include them there. I don't know whether BR or HDDVD has more installed drives in the computer marketplace. (I'd love to know.) If blank media are cheaper than blank Blu discs, then I'd expect to see HDDVDs stay readable for a long time.

But, even if HDDVD doesn't take hold very strongly on computers, I'd still expect the same, because backward compatibility for computer hardware tends to be VERY strong, and I suspect that it will not add much to the cost for drives to support both formats. Current drives tend to support not only the most common formats -- DVD-R/W and DVD+R/W -- but also DVD-RAM, which never seemed to get a hold in the marketplace. (If I'm wrong, please let me know.)

When Warner made their announcement, I briefly considered trying to return my A3. But, on the plus side, I loved it. It's much less finicky with DVD-Rs and +Rs than my Oppo, while doing (to my eyes) at least as good upconverting. I already have those 40whatever discs, which I can't return, and I still want a way to watch them. And returning the A3 would be a pretty big hassle.

I expect to go purple in the foreseeable future, after I do a little research and hopefully the prices have fallen just a tad. While I wait, I'll still buy HDDVDs, on the assumption that WAY into the future -- even if Toshiba abandoned standalone player production altogether -- I'll be able to play back my accumulated library through a computer drive hooked up to the TV.

If a crystal ball told me on January 5 that computer drives definitely WEREN'T going to be able to read HDDVDs, then I'd really have had to think harder about this.

But this is one of the ways in which comparisons to Beta/VHS fail. I have a box or two of Beta recordings I made off the cable ca. 1981-1987. The physical difference between the two formats made Beta compatibility on VHS machines impossible (or vastly expensive). That shouldn't be the case this time around.

#3

Blu-ray becomes the optical format of choice for games both computer and console. Blu-ray gets paramount and universal either neutral or exclusive within two years. Blu-ray competes as a finished format against HD downloads in the rental war. HD downloads will never take off as a owner's market.

none of the above.
Without Combo disks Blu-ray will not reach mass market status, without more studio support HD DVD will struggle. It is hard to imagine either format taking off unless something changes.

none of the above.
Without Combo disks Blu-ray will not reach mass market status, without more studio support HD DVD will struggle. It is hard to imagine either format taking off unless something changes.

Portable BD players.

HD-DVD effectively dies in 2008, before the holidays. No. 3.

christmas 08 will tell you what will happen.

The run-up to Christmas '08 will tell us what's to happen as retailers shift into holiday mode around August or so. I suspect it will be a very Blu Christmas.

You forgot many options, most notably "Both will remain a niche market". Even if HD DVD folds and Uni and Paramount both go Blu-ray, I have a hard time seeing HDM reaching any level outside the enthusiast segment in 2 years. I don't think HD optical media will die, per se, but at the rate it's going now, it will be a niche market.

Think about it. HD DVD has been on retail shelves for almost 2 years, Blu-ray almost as long. Were are we? <3% of the home video market under best estimates.

You forgot many options, most notably "Both will remain a niche market". Even if HD DVD folds and Uni and Paramount both go Blu-ray, I have a hard time seeing HDM reaching any level outside the enthusiast segment in 2 years. I don't think HD optical media will die, per se, but at the rate it's going now, it will be a niche market.

Think about it. HD DVD has been on retail shelves for almost 2 years, Blu-ray almost as long. Were are we? <3% of the home video market under best estimates.

hdtvs lowering their prices have a lot to do with more people accepting the
new hd disc after all they got to see the difference.because if cheap players
and movies would do it dvd would not have destroyed vhs.

none of the above

none of the above

VHS makes a comeback?

I don't post much but here is my take on the situation.

I believe that eventually that downloading movies via itunes, netflix, or the next great movie web site, or the movie distributers themselves will supplant both blue ray and HD DVD

eventually everything will be electronic and stored on the hard drive

disks will go the way of 8 tracks

I don't post much but here is my take on the situation.

I believe that eventually that downloading movies via itunes, netflix, or the next great movie web site, or the movie distributers themselves will supplant both blue ray and HD DVD

eventually everything will be electronic and stored on the hard drive

disks will go the way of 8 tracks

Hey, I have this 100TB hard drive filled with 4,000 HD movies if you bring me a hard drive and $500 I'll copy them all to you...

Good responses here.... Hope to see more vote in the poll!!

I suspect that adding the HD DVD feature to Blu-Ray players will become fairly trivial within 2 years. That will mean at the very least that all of Toshiba's BD players will support HD DVD, and likely other companies will support it as well (as long as Toshiba keeps the patent payments low).

Basically there'll be players with a large main Blu-Ray logo and a small HD DVD logo next to the MP3 and Divx logos. Not what Toshiba's goal was of course, but seems to be the way the ball is bouncing.

I suppose a couple million HD DVD devices, including players, Xbox Add Ons, Laptops and (if they ever get around to it) PC burners/drives will probably ensure some sort of presense for HD DVD in 2 years as well.

4. I'm a conspiracy theorist. HD downloads will end the short reign of HD DVD and Blu Ray. Or DVD will reign supreme as people will get their HD from cable, satellite or just plain forget it and go back to DVD. Certainly this will never happen but I just can't stand this war and hope, in a hail Mary pass, this might...just might....happen and both sides implode..

Not very likely since the ISP (at least where i live) have capped the badwith for their user and charge by the meg when you go over the limit. Watching downloaded movie will end up costing way more then renting or buying the disk.

HD-DVD will be with us for a while....

Two years from now in all probability HD DVD will be legacy hardware with some minimal minor studio (Paramount/Universal will be long BD in 2 years) support. Two years about 50% or better of all players sold (provided Toshiba throws in the towel after they sell off remaning inventory) will be BD (In 4 to 5 years all players and most discs will be BD). Downloads are still a large wild card but it will still be the next big thing in two years (people still have a basic desire to hold something they own).

I think something else (downloads perhaps) are going to become much more mainstream than either of these formats. No one knows for sure, but I just can't see Blu Ray taking off at these prices, and people are going to be too afraid to buy HD DVD unless as upconvert players.... I think both of these formats are going to go away in the next few years.... Makes me sad though.

I think in 2 years no major studio will support HD DVD, but all hardware manufacturers except sony will support HD DVD on their BD players. Even Toshiba. HD DVD will become another seldom used feature like DVD-A support.

Not very likely since the ISP (at least where i live) have capped the badwith for their user and charge by the meg when you go over the limit. Watching downloaded movie will end up costing way more then renting or buying the disk.

talk of that is happening here also i think my bill is high enough.

I thought of that scenario for a quick sencond but quickly dropped it as that scenario is impossible.:)


Wow, seriously. Why even have this poll then.

I could see HDDVD being a format for smaller studios and independants. In fact, I would like it that way. Give a low cost advantage for HD production to the smaller players.

I am a devout red supporter until the end. Blu-Ray definitely has the momentum. (They've had it since day one and only lost it briefly when Paramount/Dreamworks dropped them.) However, they will completely blow it if they don't get hardware costs down and replication capacity up soon. Both sides targeted the 11% of the US homes that has HDTV with an actual HD source connected to it. (Sorry, I just can't see the 19% with HDTV and no HD source shelling out $400 for a Blu-Ray player.)

If Universal and Paramount drop HD DVD or go neutral (People have been predicting Universal's neutrality for >12 months now.), HD DVD will fade away. If not, both will likely remain niche and drag along. Honestly, I don't see either achieving true mainstream, since analog (and digital) SDTV's are not massively going into landfills next year like everyone predicts.

Pan and scan fullscreen SD DVD's are still BIG sellers at Wal-Mart, Target, etc. for crying out loud.

I am a devout red supporter until the end. Blu-Ray definitely has the momentum. (They've had it since day one and only lost it briefly when Paramount/Dreamworks dropped them.) However, they will completely blow it if they don't get hardware costs down and replication capacity up soon. Both sides targeted the 11% of the US homes that has HDTV with an actual HD source connected to it. (Sorry, I just can't see the 19% with HDTV and no HD source shelling out $400 for a Blu-Ray player.)

If Universal and Paramount drop HD DVD or go neutral (People have been predicting Universal's neutrality for >12 months now.), HD DVD will fade away. If not, both will likely remain niche and drag along. Honestly, I don't see either achieving true mainstream, since analog (and digital) SDTV's are not massively going into landfills next year like everyone predicts.

Pan and scan fullscreen SD DVD's are still BIG sellers at Wal-Mart, Target, etc. for crying out loud.
but of all the electronics associated with ht the new flat panels are enjoying
the greatest sales numbers ,i remember growing up listening to my parents
saying close to the same about color tv we got one that same year.

HD-DVD folds completely


In 6 months.

I believe HD DVD will be around in two years-- and likely gaining ground on Blu Ray-- because I think it's more likely that HD DVD drives will find their way into the next gen consoles from Microsoft and Nintendo. I think studio support from Universal and Paramount and HD DVD's value as an upconverting DVD player will keep HD DVD viable until that point.

HD-DVD may have a chance if they would come out with a 4x cheap burner with cheap media then people could burn movies regardless of what movie studio releases it.

UMDs are still sold, so I don't HD DVD is going away anytime soon.

I selected 4 as their isn't an option on the poll for parity in the sense of DVD+/-

...Two years about 50% or better of all players sold (provided Toshiba throws in the towel after they sell off remaning inventory) will be BD (In 4 to 5 years all players and most discs will be BD)...

I think you win the optimist of the year award. It is hard to imagine that in two years there will be portable BD players and BD standalones that compete on price with DVD equivalents, and that half of the car manufacturers will swap out the various in-car DVD systems for in-car BD systems. Not to mention PC makers including BD drives on a massive scale.

In 4-5 years, in order for "most disks will be BD", the player market will have had to have already switched over for at least a few years prior. There are hundreds of millions of DVD players of some type floating around out there, do we expect that people will just throw them all out and replace them since they are only buying BD disks?

I think you win the optimist of the year award. It is hard to imagine that in two years there will be portable BD players and BD standalones that compete on price with DVD equivalents, and that half of the car manufacturers will swap out the various in-car DVD systems for in-car BD systems. Not to mention PC makers including BD drives on a massive scale.

In 4-5 years, in order for "most disks will be BD", the player market will have had to have already switched over for at least a few years prior. There are a billion + DVD players of some type floating around out there, do we expect that people will just throw them all out and replace them since they are only buying BD disks?

Looking at the poll I think he has some stiff competition from at least 12 people.

BR/HDDVD are not making money for anyone and will not be making much in 2 years. The real war is game consoles. The next war will be digital media in the home. No way is MS going to throw in the towel and let Sony dominate with PS3 and BD.

MS has enough money to keep Sony from taking over. BD will not get all the studios and J6P will buy a Universal BD/HDDVD/DVD/CD player for LESS than the big name BD players. This war is over when J6P does not care because he has a DF player. Studios go blue or red based on tools, costs and deals. In two years, no one cares.

looks like wii is given xbox and ps3 some real competition but blu-ray looks to be
gaining more ground as time goes by.

I think any of these scenarios depend on BD adoption rates. If we see a spike in the total volume of stand alones AND a spike (not in percentages mind you) of total BD discs sold (talking significant here, HDM in total at 7%-10% of total disc sales versus DVD by year end), then BD will kill HD DVD. However, if BD is "beating" HD DVD and volumes of stand alone players and discs are still small, then they'll both persist -- BD as a niche product, and HD DVD as a niche within the niche.

Lots of "what ifs" in there, but adoption will be driven primarily by player and media prices. If BD cannot get fully functional players (2.0) into the sub-$200 range quickly (by Black Friday of this year), HDM adoption will stall, IMHO.

I think the end will be sooner than two years, once again a popular intermountain radio station movie show that airs each Friday indicated that rumors are going around that hd dvd is just about done, and that Universal and Paramount will be moving to bd by late summer, and calling the Toshiba price cuts a fire sale. They also indicated that bb will be phasing out hd dvd by summer to further assure that there will be one hd format. I have no idea where the info comes from, but at this point I am not sure it matters. There are those of us here that know better but the general consumer does not and they will ultimately be the one's to decide the fate of hd dvd and blu ray. With information such as this being spread to all and the fact that bd has over 70% of the studio support, the end of this war will be very soon. IMO.

I think the end will be sooner than two years, once again a popular intermountain radio station movie show that airs each Friday indicated that rumors are going around that hd dvd is just about done, and that Universal and Paramount will be moving to bd by late summer, and calling the Toshiba price cuts a fire sale.

Once again a popular, HAM-radio, Internet Education and All-Things-Movies/Audio and Video review station, which airs at 6am every second Tuesday of odd numbered months, indicated that rumors are going around that Blu-Ray is over-rated, and that not only will Paramount and Universal stick with HD-DVD, but that Warner will realize they were idiots and will go format neutral again by July of this year, and they called Toshiba price cuts a brilliant marketing and business move which has garnered HD-DVD support from every continent! Opinions are like what?

i think both formats will continue to coexist as niche products for several more years with hd dvd being a smaller niche than bd.

unless prices for everything involved drop like rocks.

unless prices for everything involved drop like rocks.

If disc prices drop to standard DVD prices, the tides would turn.

If disc prices drop to standard DVD prices, the tides would turn.

i and everyone would love this but from a business standpoint why would you
offer more for less .

Oh, I agree! It know it won't happen. I was just sayin'....

I did not vote because what I think/feel will happen is not offered as an option in the vote. I feel both formats are going to coexist, with BD winning in the US and HD DVD `winning' or, at least, being on equal footing with BD in Europe and/or China. BUT none of them is going to develop into a mass product like DVD and, in 3 to 4 years, both of them are going to be dead.
To me, the only format which had a slight chance of replacing DVD was HD DVD, for better or for worse. This is probably not going to happen in the US or in Japan and, therefore, at least not in Europe. China may be another story.

Let me add that I feel the BD camp is not going to help BD become a widespread format in the US (and that's a shame!). If indeed BD remains a niche market in the US, it's never going to develop in Europe, let alone in China (where VCD still thrives).

Time will tell, but I fear downloads are the future. To me, it's a bleak future, but who am I to argue with `the market'? You know, I am and have been purple for a long time but, since Warner's decision, I really feel blue (pun intended)...

Too early to say for certain, but I voted for option 3 being most likely. Still no word of additional support from Universal or Paramount three weeks after the Warner decision (by comparison, 20th Century Fox fired back the morning after Paramount's switch last August). That in itself is a telling point; if these studios were as committed to HD DVD as some would like to believe, you'd think they'd be announcing more than a couple of titles.

Without Hollywood support, HD DVD is toast. Blu-ray is now almost two generations ahead of HD DVD on the PC drive front, and there isn't enough unique content on HD DVD to maintain more than a collector's niche; a healthy majority of HD DVD titles are also available on Blu-ray, leaving something like a hundred-odd titles at the current time; should the remaining HD DVD studios add Blu-ray support, even that paltry number will dwindle.

My prediction: HD-DVD discs will be gone from most retailer shelves by mid-summer. Toshiba will announce no further players to be manufactured. Whether or not Paramount and Universal have switched will be immaterial at that point. Once the red boxes are gone from Walmart's, Target's, and Best Buy's shelves, there will be no choice left but to call HD-DVD dead. Amazon will continue to feed the true believers until their stock runs out. Then it will be an eBay-only format.

Currently the biggest winner is DVD. Most JP haven't got a clue what's going on and won't pay the kind of current prices for players (of either format) and discs.

Both camps could wipe DVDs out if they made the HD/BD discs the same price as DVDs today, and started to phase DVDs out.

Also, ultimately, which ever one wins, this will be the last physical medium. The next phase will either be dl (but not if Crime Warner has their way) or the likes of USB drives.

Seggers

One more good category would have been.

"Several studios abandon HDM entirely citing low sales and high costs."

Currently the biggest winner is DVD. Most JP haven't got a clue what's going on and won't pay the kind of current prices for players (of either format) and discs.

Both camps could wipe DVDs out if they made the HD/BD discs the same price as DVDs today, and started to phase DVDs out.

Also, ultimately, which ever one wins, this will be the last physical medium. The next phase will either be dl (but not if Crime Warner has their way) or the likes of USB drives.

Seggers
if they are the same price they will stay with dvd no added cost to mfg.

HD DVD will look the way SACD and DVD-A does today: still available via online sites, but hard or impossible to find locally.

Without a steady stream of new releases of movies people want, and classics that are impossible to get in another HD format, it could survive for a while. However, if Paramount and Universal go dual, the survival rate goes down.

if they are the same price they will stay with dvd no added cost to mfg.

I did also say that the firms would have to phase out DVDs too.

Seggers

UMDs are still sold, so I don't HD DVD is going away anytime soon.


PSP's are still being sold in pretty respectable quantities. UMDs are restricted to the gaming area, though. I could see some larger chain specialty retailers (BB, CC, Frys, Virgin, etc) maintining a small HDDVD section should Toshiba and at least some studios, continue to support the format, but many/most smaller retailers and some of the bigger mass market ones like Target and Wal Mart, will not.

HD DVD will survive by implementing twin format triple layer discs. If people want the SD release, they'll also be buying the HD DVD release. I agree that all players will be combo players by late 2009 early 2010.

I don't see either format 'winning' though.

The one saving grace for HD DVD would be only this scenario:

Microsoft must release an XBOX 360 with a built in HD DVD player for $249 or $299 to compete with SOny's latest devastating blow of their PS3 for $299 thats coming.

Because if Sony goes unrivaled to the market with a BD player and nexgen video game for $299 it will be all over. Hype is already stirring about this and people are finally getting interested in getting a PS3 because it does both and it will be cheap.

Microsoft is in a major dillema here. They are about to lose all this momentum that they built with the 360 and the early HD DVD push if they dont react QUICKLY!

Their only counterpunch option left is to release a 360 model with an internal HDDVD player for the same price or even $50 cheaper than the new priced PS3. That could turn things ugly once again for Sony, their BD plans and their PS3 future as well!

Its a move MS has gotta make if their smart....the winner of this battle will win the war on both fronts Nex gen video game console AND Nex gen DVD format

MS the ball is in your court now....the clock is ticket down....under a minute left

HD DVD will survive by implementing twin format triple layer discs. If people want the SD release, they'll also be buying the HD DVD release. I agree that all players will be combo players by late 2009 early 2010.

I don't see either format 'winning' though.

So shrinking DVD sales will be remedied by making all the discs more expensive to produce, (guiness commercial men) Brilliant!

HD DVD will survive by implementing twin format triple layer discs.

Why not simply start by selling HD DVD's at the price of DVD's? No need for new technology or format and it would have a dramatic effect. Hey, but they could have done that last year ...

if eveyone remembers when vhs was being phased out you saw 5 and 6 dollar discount
isle now i am seeing this with dvd's so its moving faster than they thought.

I voted for three, but only because it was the closest to what will really happen, HD-DVD completely folds before 2008 ends. By fold I mean Toshiba announces during 2008 they will stop designing next generation HD-DVD exclusive players, and instead will announce that all future players will be either SD-DVD only, Blu-Ray only or Dual-Format.

I'm willing to bet a large sum of money on this outcome.

The one saving grace for HD DVD would be only this scenario:

Microsoft must release an XBOX 360 with a built in HD DVD player for $249 or $299 to compete with SOny's latest devastating blow of their PS3 for $299 thats coming.

Because if Sony goes unrivaled to the market with a BD player and nexgen video game for $299 it will be all over. Hype is already stirring about this and people are finally getting interested in getting a PS3 because it does both and it will be cheap.

Microsoft is in a major dillema here. They are about to lose all this momentum that they built with the 360 and the early HD DVD push if they dont react QUICKLY!

Their only counterpunch option left is to release a 360 model with an internal HDDVD player for the same price or even $50 cheaper than the new priced PS3. That could turn things ugly once again for Sony, their BD plans and their PS3 future as well!

Its a move MS has gotta make if their smart....the winner of this battle will win the war on both fronts Nex gen video game console AND Nex gen DVD format

MS the ball is in your court now....the clock is ticket down....under a minute left


Golly gee, but this is not right. MS has many other irons in the fire. The HD DVD add on to the XBOX 360 was implemented as an add on explicitly to allow it to be replaced with another format type. As Bill Gates said, if Blu-Ray is needed, all someone has to do within Microsoft is to use a Blu-Ray drive and implement an interface to it. To the system, it is just a stream of data parsed by a device driver. Why do people think that Microsoft is painted into a corner on this?

Having said that, Microsoft has committed to the HD-DVD platform for now, and is probably pretty happy with its choice for now. As to the success of the XBOX 360, give me a break - it is eating the PS3's lunch and has been for a while. The XBOX 360 and the PS3 are gaming platforms first, and compete at that level. To gamers, the display of HD movies is an afterthought; they'd much rather fire up HALO. The real competition to both is the WII, a 480P platform.

This area is much more important to Microsoft than the result from a format war where the total number of titles in both camps does not exceed 1000.

Microsoft is in a major dillema here. They are about to lose all this momentum that they built with the 360 and the early HD DVD push if they dont react QUICKLY!

Their only counterpunch option left is to release a 360 model with an internal HDDVD player for the same price or even $50 cheaper than the new priced PS3. That could turn things ugly once again for Sony, their BD plans and their PS3 future as well!

Its a move MS has gotta make if their smart....the winner of this battle will win the war on both fronts Nex gen video game console AND Nex gen DVD format

MS the ball is in your court now....the clock is ticket down....under a minute left
Microsoft is too smart to put an HD-DVD drive into the XBox. First, it will take at least a year to design and the war will be over by then. Even if they had one designed and tested, ready to begin production next month, it would still be a very poor decision. HD-DVD would become synonymous with the XBox and if HD-DVD is dies (and I 100% guarantee it will) the XBox will appear to be a technological loser. People will go to stores looking for another HD-DVD movie to go along with the one in the box and the Best Buy clerk will say "Dude, the war is over and HD-DVD lost. The winner was Blu-Ray, you can get one of those in the PS3".

Microsoft is smart - if they believe the built-in Blu-Ray player is an advantage they'll come out with a Blu-Ray add-on, otherwise let Sony keep selling the PS3 at a cost disadvantage. That would be my recommendation to the board.

So shrinking DVD sales will be remedied by making all the discs more expensive to produce, (guiness commercial men) Brilliant!

lol...

Microsoft is too smart to put an HD-DVD drive into the XBox. First, it will take at least a year to design and the war will be over by then. Even if they had one designed and tested, ready to begin production next month, it would still be a very poor decision.

Bingo. And the detriment to making such a poor decision would far outweigh any incentive they would have to go that route in the first place.

Brandon

toshiba not showing a new machine at ces to follow up on the discontinued xa2 which i though was one of the best players out there does not sound like they are totally commited as they state.

2 years... is a long time.

I peer through my magical crystal ball, and this is what I, the one PikachuManZzZ, forsee!

1. HD-DVD will fold, completely. There is no momentum, and Toshiba can't keep halving the price indefinitely. Paramount and Universal will go neutral, but not before 2009, and not before every lingering bit of optimism for HD-DVD has withered away.

At that point, the format war is declared over by most major media outlets. Consumers will be guaranteed 100% studio support on the blu-ray platforms.

2. Blu-ray standalone players will get cheap enough for consumer acceptance among the upper-middle classes. That means players between $299 and $149, at the entry-level. There will be no $99 players, due to poor economics (profit margins too low to justify producing that model).

3. Movie prices go down to $20 to $30 at MSRP. Blu-ray becomes an enthusiast market (similar in position to HDTVs today); much too large to be called a 'niche', but still a long way from replacing DVD anytime soon.

So what does the Mistar PikachuMan ZzZ forecast in the 5 year weather report?

Strong winds ahead to fill the sails of the Blu-ray boat!!!
-Blu-ray incorporated into virtually all high-end DVD players (only bargain basement players are sold as dvd-only).
-Standalones replace the PS3 as primary means of playing BR's.
-'Digital copy' mechanisms catch on, but internet-accessible content never catches on (seen mostly as a 'cheesy', useless feature).

Category 3 hurricane, "Digit-ALL downloads" blows north, misses landfall!!
-Infrastructure becomes widely available, but under-used.
-No solution achieves an acceptable compromise between studio and consumer interest. Prices, compatibility, and DRM issues restrain consumer interest.
-Further DRM issues cause consumers to lose confidence in download-to-own; restrict business models to rentals, portables or subscription markets.

That's about it, right.

PSP's are still being sold in pretty respectable quantities. UMDs are restricted to the gaming area, though. I could see some larger chain specialty retailers (BB, CC, Frys, Virgin, etc) maintining a small HDDVD section should Toshiba and at least some studios, continue to support the format, but many/most smaller retailers and some of the bigger mass market ones like Target and Wal Mart, will not.
There's over 10 million PSPs in North America alone (per NPD as of end of year 2007), and over 20 million worldwide.

That's more than ten times the install base of HD DVD, and UMD movies barely have any retail presence in any store except maybe Best Buy, even though there's tons of UMDs still being produced for PSP games.

There's a lesson to be learned there.

2 years... is a long time.

I peer through my magical crystal ball, and this is what I, the one PikachuManZzZ, forsee!

1. HD-DVD will fold, completely. There is no momentum, and Toshiba can't keep halving the price indefinitely. Paramount and Universal will go neutral, but not before 2009, and not before every lingering bit of optimism for HD-DVD has withered away.

At that point, the format war is declared over by most major media outlets. Consumers will be guaranteed 100% studio support on the blu-ray platforms.

2. Blu-ray standalone players will get cheap enough for consumer acceptance among the upper-middle classes. That means players between $299 and $149, at the entry-level. There will be no $99 players, due to poor economics (profit margins too low to justify producing that model).

3. Movie prices go down to $20 to $30 at MSRP. Blu-ray becomes an enthusiast market (similar in position to HDTVs today); much too large to be called a 'niche', but still a long way from replacing DVD anytime soon.

So what does the Mistar PikachuMan ZzZ forecast in the 5 year weather report?

Strong winds ahead to fill the sails of the Blu-ray boat!!!
-Blu-ray incorporated into virtually all high-end DVD players (only bargain basement players are sold as dvd-only).
-Standalones replace the PS3 as primary means of playing BR's.
-'Digital copy' mechanisms catch on, but internet-accessible content never catches on (seen mostly as a 'cheesy', useless feature).

Category 3 hurricane, "Digit-ALL downloads" blows north, misses landfall!!
-Infrastructure becomes widely available, but under-used.
-No solution achieves an acceptable compromise between studio and consumer interest. Prices, compatibility, and DRM issues restrain consumer interest.
-Further DRM issues cause consumers to lose confidence in download-to-own; restrict business models to rentals, portables or subscription markets.

That's about it, right.

blu-ray players between $149 and $299 in 2009? blu-ray's in big trouble if it's going to take them a year to get down to where hd dvd's prices are now. and some chinese manufacturer will inevitably produce a sub-$99 high-definition video disc player (if it grows out of a niche market).

reed hastings (the ceo of netflix) said this week that blu-ray player needs full-studio support and prices of blu-ray players need to fall below $199 in order for blu-ray to gain mass consumer acceptance. and reed wants high-definition video discs to take off because that would benefit netflix because according to reed it would probably create a long transition period from physical media to mostly digital downloads (whether netflix can remain to be relevant remains to be seen).

so i guess that according to your statements (as i would think reed would see it) we are a year or more away from mass consumer adoption of high-definition video players and discs.

christmas 08 will tell you what will happen.

God, kill me now. I thought Christmas 07 was the telling Christmas.

God, kill me now. I thought Christmas 07 was the telling Christmas.
It was. At this point, there's really nothing else to determine other than the timeline of events; not so much the events themselves. Does it really matter so very much if HD DVD folds or remains a tiny niche?

I suppose there's some cold comfort to be gained if you're HD DVD-only to look forward to a shrinking number of releases. Even so, virtually all the features that HD DVD has today will be or already are on Blu-ray (internet connectivity, PiP, lower hardware pricing), and there's some things I'm sure we'll see on Blu-ray that we'll never see on HD DVD (advanced interactive games, perhaps other things like updateable subtitles). Despite these small differences, the two formats are more alike than different, and that's really why I'm so bearish on its future outlook even as a niche.

blu-ray players between $149 and $299 in 2009? blu-ray's in big trouble if it's going to take them a year to get down to where hd dvd's prices are now. and some chinese manufacturer will inevitably produce a sub-$99 high-definition video disc player (if it grows out of a niche market).

I'm not saying it can't be done, but rather it won't be done. It doesn't make sense for manufacturers to rush out a bargin-bin player, when the product is firmly aimed at the upper-middle class demographic (which probably isn't going to sweat a $50 price difference).

Remember, for revenue to remain constant, they would need to sell 3 times as many $99 players, as they would have on $300 players. I'm not certain they could possibly do that, since this particular market is dependent on several other factors (HDTV penetration, consumer awareness, etc).

Your line of thinking assuming that in order for HDM to grow, it has to appeal to those in the lower and middle income brackets. I'm going to disagree with that, and say that even with $300 players (which prices it out of the hands of middle income families), there would still alot of room to grow, and easily enough to lift HDM out of 'niche' status.

I predict HDM players are going to be in a position akin to what the BMWs and Mercedes-Benz's have in the automotive world. They won't be mass-market entities, but they will be numerous enough to the point where they would still be considered part of the mainstream.

BluRay hardware manufacturers greed and incomplete, over priced players kill off HDM and they both remain as they are today, tiny niche products with less than 5% optical market share forever.

BluRay hardware manufacturers greed and incomplete, over priced players kill off HDM forever......
We know the HD DVD talking points

and they both remain as they are today, tiny niche products with less than 5% optical market share

Today, yes... I agree..but they will take over DVD.

Having said that, Microsoft has committed to the HD-DVD platform for now, and is probably pretty happy with its choice for now. As to the success of the XBOX 360, give me a break - it is eating the PS3's lunch and has been for a while. The XBOX 360 and the PS3 are gaming platforms first, and compete at that level. To gamers, the display of HD movies is an afterthought; they'd much rather fire up HALO. The real competition to both is the WII, a 480P platform.


Most hardcore games agree that an Xbox 360 is currently the better choice due to a much better game library. It would seem then, that some people buying the PS3 probably have other priorities, BD perhaps.

God, kill me now. I thought Christmas 07 was the telling Christmas.

i guess i did not make my point if the buying frenzy at christmas time is
more for one format than it was for the 2 then it will be more readily accepted
by the masses.

God, kill me now. I thought Christmas 07 was the telling Christmas.

It was. No one was buying. It told the manufacturers and studios that this experiment is failing. WB undoubtably took incentive $ rather than sticking with both formats because they see the sad state of HDM and the incentives are far higher than any profit from HDM.

BR can overtake DVD in a few years, but never kill it. HD DVD could have overtaken DVD in a few years, and then killed it with combo discs.

Dave

BR can overtake DVD in a few years, but never kill it. HD DVD could have overtaken DVD in a few years, and then killed it with combo discs.
The good news is the HD-DVD fanboys realize this war is over, the bad news is they aren't going to stop whining.

And when Blu-Ray does eliminate DVD in about five years, we'll hear how HD-DVD would have done it in three. :rolleyes:

Wanna bet on the 5 years? That means NO more DVD!

Dave

The good news is the HD-DVD fanboys realize this war is over, the bad news is they aren't going to stop whining.

And when Blu-Ray does eliminate DVD in about five years, we'll hear how HD-DVD would have done it in three. :rolleyes:

The good news for HD-DVD fanboys is that the Blu-Ray fanboys think that the BDA can buy off a major studio and charge $400+ for a Blu-Ray player at Best Buy and win the format war.

The good news for the the HD-DVD fanboys is that consumers will decide the format war and not a few studio executives and electronics manufacturers. Consumers are clearly saying now that they are quite sufficiently satisfied with the upconverting DVD players that at end of 2007, they bought approximately five times more upconverting DVD players than all high-definition video disc players combined (and I am including the PS3, even though it is a game console that a certain percentage of its owners do not use for Blu-Ray -- i.e. if they don't own an HDTV).

The good news for HD-DVD fanboys is the Blu-Ray fanboys are like ostriches sticking their head in the sand, and standing by a few editorials in Home Media Magazine that tell Toshiba and Microsoft that they should just shut down shop for the good of high-definition media.

The good news for HD-DVD fanboys is that Toshiba has priced their HD DVD players at price points that the general consumer is going to accept. There are a number of electronics products that are essentially stuck in niche status, and HD DVD with aggressive pricing is trying not to end up in the kind of rut that Tivo (consumers would rather get a generic DVR from their cable company because of cost), SACD, and DVD-A have been mired in, and where Blu-Ray appears to be headed right now.

The good news for the the HD-DVD fanboys is that consumers will decide the format war

The bad news for the HD-DVD fanboys is that consumers already did.

Wanna bet on the 5 years? That means NO more DVD!

DaveNote the sarcastic eyes at the end of the sentence. It means that "if" Blu-Ray kills DVD in five years HD-DVD fanboys would say they would do it in four. What I will bet on is by 2013, five years from now, Blu-Ray players will outsell SD-DVD players. Ask theBland to setup a trust account for us, I'll park $5k in it and you do the same. The winner gets the $10k, plus interest.

The good news for HD-DVD fanboys is that Toshiba has priced their HD DVD players at price points that the general consumer is going to accept. There are a number of electronics products that are essentially stuck in niche status, and HD DVD with aggressive pricing is trying not to end up in the kind of rut that Tivo (consumers would rather get a generic DVR from their cable company because of cost), SACD, and DVD-A have been mired in, and where Blu-Ray appears to be headed right now.Let me guess, you're one of the 7% on this poll that still think HD-DVD wins this war. I'll make the same $5k bet that Toshiba will NOT announce NEW dedicated HD-DVD players at CES2009. Basically they are done making HD-DVD. They might make a dual format player to keep their customers who got stuck with HD-DVD happy, but that's about all they'll do.

Voted 2 . . . hope for 3.

Since the Warner announcement, I have spent a lot of time on AVS. The announcement is what brought me here as I had just purchased an HD DVD player and wondered if I had been too impulsive. I was quite aware there was a format war in progress but the announcement caught me off-guard. I heard about it on CNN, by the way, not here. I returned the player without ever removing it from its packaging. So I have yet to actually see a hi-def player in action on my Sanyo Z2 front PJ or 46 inch 1080p LCD Samsung set.

So, my investment is zero . . . I have lost nothing. I do not have any need to be defensive of one format over the other although I will admit to being no enthusiast for the Sony corporation, a trait which caused some prejudice in favor of “The Red Camp.”.

1/ I am “shocked and appalled” at the emotion in evidence at so many posts here. These are overwhelmingly from the HD DVD crowd. I understand their pain . . . but only to a degree. Seems to me they have “lost it.” Taking personally a battle between industrial giants that are totally unaware of their very existence as individuals.

2/ We see a new legend aborning here . . . “the best format lost,” redolent of the Beta vs VHS war most of us recall all too well. I distinctly remember a Consumer Reports article that emphasized the superiority of Beta over VHS was exaggerated at best and the actual differences in PQ were quite indiscernible between the two formats. But never mind that. It is history and people, as ever, believe what they want to believe. The legend will endure and we will never hear the end of “Beta was better than VHS.” If Blu-Ray becomes mainstream, it's going to be déja vu and the claims of the “superiority” of HD DVD over Blu-Ray will become increasingly strident as the years go by.

3/ “A pox on all their houses!” It has been my feeling that this format war was a SUPREMELY stupid blunder and I have no sympathy for any of the industrial parties involved. To those that construe the presence of two, incompatible hi-def DVD formats as some kind of positive good for consumers, well, I disagree. It has been a killer for hi-def DVD in the marketplace IMO. Certainly it is THE reason I do not have a player. The format war: STUPID, STUPID, STUPID!!! :mad::mad: Never should have happened!!
Such is my feeling about it . .. so I have some emotions on the issue too even though I have not committed to one format or the other. My eyes rolled so far into the back of my head at the news two, incompatible formats were going to market, I still can't see straight. :) I could not believe the industry was so hopelessly obtuse to let this fatal strategy come to pass.

4/ Personally I DO want one format or the other to “go away.” I really care not which it is. I KNEW I was being impulsive in buying an HD DVD player. The price was such that no real hardship would have resulted had I kept it and the format failed but, I really do not need another box sitting alongside my laser disk player. (Yep, it's still there. While I have removed both of my VHS recorders, I can't seem to throw the LD player out, even though I have not used it for years. Someday I will . .. throw it out that is, not use it.)

5/ Whither now? Well, for me, nowhere. I will wait a bit. See how things shake out. If, a year from now, Blu-Ray players are “profile 2” and $200 or so, I will likely jump at one. If the marketplace is still muddled with competing formats, I will carry on without hi-def DVD. Of course it is essential that there be lots and lots of movies offered too. I have to feel confident the medium is going to survive for the long haul . . . a decade or so anyhow.

6/ While I am certainly not J6P, I am not a fanatic either. I DO have many J6P friends, colleagues and extended family though. And I know from them just how little the general public cares about this whole hi-def thing. The industry has a long way to go to get mass adoption of ANY format that comes at a higher cost than SD DVD players and media.

7/ Price wise, hi-dEf DVDs are still in the era akin to $15,000 fifty inch plasma TV's. Remember those wonders? Not so long ago really. Seven years? Although I was mesmerized by the things at the time, I am certainly glad I didn't buy one of them!

And I won't shell out $600 for a DVD player either! Not of ANY profile, complete or not. Get it down to $250 or so, I may not be able to control myself even knowing that, if the format truly finds mass acceptance, hi-def players will likely be available for the same $50-$100 we see for SD DVD players now.

Will HD-DVD all but disappear in the next year or two? I don't know. But, yes, I think it will and, yes again, I actually hope it does so as to “clear the air” and allow hi-def DVD to prosper.

If it turned out the other way , HD DVD coming out on top, it would be of no real consequence to me.
But that seems hardly likely now and, I reiterate, I deem ONE format ABSOLUTELY essential to the long-term success of hi-def DVD. Those that think otherwise just perplex me.

i would like to think that everyone understands that in order for this to go beyond
niche there can only be one format.

2 years... is a long time.

I peer through my magical crystal ball, and this is what I, the one PikachuManZzZ, forsee!

1. HD-DVD will fold, completely. There is no momentum, and Toshiba can't keep halving the price indefinitely. Paramount and Universal will go neutral, but not before 2009, and not before every lingering bit of optimism for HD-DVD has withered away.

At that point, the format war is declared over by most major media outlets. Consumers will be guaranteed 100% studio support on the blu-ray platforms.

2. Blu-ray standalone players will get cheap enough for consumer acceptance among the upper-middle classes. That means players between $299 and $149, at the entry-level. There will be no $99 players, due to poor economics (profit margins too low to justify producing that model).

3. Movie prices go down to $20 to $30 at MSRP. Blu-ray becomes an enthusiast market (similar in position to HDTVs today); much too large to be called a 'niche', but still a long way from replacing DVD anytime soon.

So what does the Mistar PikachuMan ZzZ forecast in the 5 year weather report?

Strong winds ahead to fill the sails of the Blu-ray boat!!!
-Blu-ray incorporated into virtually all high-end DVD players (only bargain basement players are sold as dvd-only).
-Standalones replace the PS3 as primary means of playing BR's.
-'Digital copy' mechanisms catch on, but internet-accessible content never catches on (seen mostly as a 'cheesy', useless feature).

Category 3 hurricane, "Digit-ALL downloads" blows north, misses landfall!!
-Infrastructure becomes widely available, but under-used.
-No solution achieves an acceptable compromise between studio and consumer interest. Prices, compatibility, and DRM issues restrain consumer interest.
-Further DRM issues cause consumers to lose confidence in download-to-own; restrict business models to rentals, portables or subscription markets.

That's about it, right.

It could get turbulent before the end, as if 149 doesn't work and there is still unsold stock, Toshiba will try 99 and then 79. It would be interesting to see if they continue to build more. Anyone with a back channel to see sales of the NEC EMMA3 chip used in Toshiba players will likely know quickly if Toshiba has slowed down/stopped their weekly orders of that chip.

As for new supply, there is a 4-12 week lead time between an order and when chips leave the fab and assembly house to Toshiba, so that places any potential slowdown in supply of A3 between end of January to end of March. There could be other terms in the deal with NEC as in rarely, the customer gets the option to return unused chips, but if Toshiba continues to make A3 past end of March, that means they're really fighting this one out and not just clearing inventory.

:D There should be ways to know for sure, given that chain has too many people involved. :D

But that seems hardly likely now and, I reiterate, I deem ONE format ABSOLUTELY essential to the long-term success of hi-def DVD. Those that think otherwise just perplex me.

Absolutely essential, eh? I agree it would be nice ("in a perfect world") if there was just one format, but that's not the case. The single biggest problem about having two formats is that "everyone" thinks one must win and the other must die. It's a self-fulfilling prophecy. Were it not for the studios picking sides and trying to choke the life out of one format (or the other), there wouldn't be a big problem with having two formats. Less than ideal, but not a huge problem or a curse on HDM dooming it to extinction.

Wanna bet on the 5 years? That means NO more DVD!

Dave

Hmmm... DVD may well be dead in five years, who knows, we may all be dead in five years:eek:, but it is highly unlikely that Blu-Ray will be holding the smoking gun.

For PC's and Macs, Blu-Ray is a non starter. First, the drives are too expensive and the media is to complicated to ever make affordable at current adoption rates. Just look at dual layer DVD. It's been out for a while, but try to find the media. And if you do, compare the cost, both unit and per GB, to single layer DVDr... Magnify that difference by 5 or so and you can see where Blu-ray media is headed on the PC side.

Second, there is no value added proposition for the Major players, i.e., Microsoft or Apple. While everyone talks about Microsoft's defeat, they completely gloss over Apples loss. Apple has iMovie, iDVD, Final Cut, et al, as value added products to sell the Mac. Recent changes in the Blu-Ray spec make iBlu-Ray, for example, iMpossible. That, and the fact they are trying to push HD downloads, begs the question: Why give an advantage to Sony that nets them nothing? Where is the Mac Blu-Ray player? Hummm...

So for now, dvds and dvd burners will remain in computers, with hd format drives being expensive, problematic and poorly supported options. And there are a lot of computers sold every year, as well as a lot of DVD players and DVDs.

About the only place where Blu-Ray has any real tangible lead is in the number of PS3's sold with a blu-ray drive... well, all of them do. But in the grand sceme of things, that aint much. To ad insult to injury, the DVD equiped Wii is kicking its ass:p

I see blu-ray going the same way as UMD... insufficient sales going forward for studios to justify the continued expense of supporting it.

The bad news for the HD-DVD fanboys is that consumers already did.

the bad news for blu-ray fanboys is that the toshiba hd-a3 is the #1 selling high-definition video disc player at bestbuy.com and amazon. the hd-a30 at #4 on bestbuy.com only trails two blu-ray players (one from sony and one from sharp) that are being given away for free with (sony and sharp) 1080p hdtv's. the hd-a35 is sold out online at bestbuy.com

hd-a3, a30, and a35 are #2, 3, and 5 among all DVD players at Amazon (two Phillips upconverting standard-definition DVD players are #1 and #4)

http://www.bestbuy.com/site/olspage.jsp?st=processingtime%3A%3E1900-01-01&qp=crootcategoryid%23%23-1%23%23-1~~q70726f63657373696e6774696d653a3e313930302d30312d3031~~ca bcat0100000%23%230%23%23wv~~cabcat0102000%23%230%23%2322~~ca bcat0102001%23%230%23%235~~nf31%7C%7C48444d49204f75747075747 3&usc=abcat0100000&nrp=15&type=page&sp=-bestsellingsort+skuid&sc=TVVideoSP&id=pcat17080

http://www.amazon.com/gp/bestsellers/electronics/172514******pd_ts_e_nav

the high-definition video disc market is so far from mass market consumption if you think consumers have decided anything yet you are flat out wrong. we are seeing hd-dvd hardware sell now, and software sales will come later. it doesn't take much figuring that one of the reasons why sacd's and dvd-a's failed is because hardly anyone had a dvd player that supported either of those formats, and people really weren't interested in buying an expensive player for something they had never heard of.

the bad news for blu-ray fanboys is that the toshiba hd-a3 is the #1 selling high-definition video disc player at bestbuy.com and amazon. the hd-a30 at #4 on bestbuy.com only trails two blu-ray players (one from sony and one from sharp) that are being given away for free with (sony and sharp) 1080p hdtv's. the hd-a35 is sold out online at bestbuy.com

hd-a3, a30, and a35 are #2, 3, and 5 among all DVD players at Amazon (two Phillips upconverting standard-definition DVD players are #1 and #4)

http://www.bestbuy.com/site/olspage.jsp?st=processingtime%3A%3E1900-01-01&qp=crootcategoryid%23%23-1%23%23-1~~q70726f63657373696e6774696d653a3e313930302d30312d3031~~ca bcat0100000%23%230%23%23wv~~cabcat0102000%23%230%23%2322~~ca bcat0102001%23%230%23%235~~nf31%7C%7C48444d49204f75747075747 3&usc=abcat0100000&nrp=15&type=page&sp=-bestsellingsort+skuid&sc=TVVideoSP&id=pcat17080

http://www.amazon.com/gp/bestsellers/electronics/172514******pd_ts_e_nav

the high-definition video disc market is so far from mass market consumption if you think consumers have decided anything yet you are flat out wrong. we are seeing hd-dvd hardware sell now, and software sales will come later. it doesn't take much figuring that one of the reasons why sacd's and dvd-a's failed is because hardly anyone had a dvd player that supported either of those formats, and people really weren't interested in buying an expensive player for something they had never heard of.

The only bad news for Blu-ray supporters is that Universal and Paramount still aren't making movies for our players.

Everything else is just... everything else.

to extend my comments above, concider this;

Probably the only thing keeping either format alive has been the uncertainty of the format wars, i.e., what if one wins and takes over the market?

But what if one wins, and no one (except ps3 fanbois) shows up for the victory dance?

The "war" may be over, but victory may have already slipped thru sony's fingers.

It's time to stop showing the "war" as Blu-Ray vs HD DVD. It's high time to show it as HD format vs DVD. If that doesn't change appreciable in HD's favor, DVD could win it by CES 2009:D

another thing keeping hd disc in the spotlight is the fact that you can not go shopping
for a tv now and not get some form of hd even if its 720p.all new computers are 16x10
with at least 1024x768.every major news program announces now in hd along with
regular shows and movies.hd camcorders cost half what the sd versions were 3 years
ago. radio announcers talk about shows in hd so the entire world is aware of and
probable curious about hd.also just look at the blu-ray adds there as many as pizza adds.

Hmmm... DVD may well be dead in five years, who knows, we may all be dead in five years:eek:, but it is highly unlikely that Blu-Ray will be holding the smoking gun.

For PC's and Macs, Blu-Ray is a non starter. First, the drives are too expensive and the media is to complicated to ever make affordable at current adoption rates. Just look at dual layer DVD. It's been out for a while, but try to find the media. And if you do, compare the cost, both unit and per GB, to single layer DVDr... Magnify that difference by 5 or so and you can see where Blu-ray media is headed on the PC side.

Second, there is no value added proposition for the Major players, i.e., Microsoft or Apple. While everyone talks about Microsoft's defeat, they completely gloss over Apples loss. Apple has iMovie, iDVD, Final Cut, et al, as value added products to sell the Mac. Recent changes in the Blu-Ray spec make iBlu-Ray, for example, iMpossible. That, and the fact they are trying to push HD downloads, begs the question: Why give an advantage to Sony that nets them nothing? Where is the Mac Blu-Ray player? Hummm...

So for now, dvds and dvd burners will remain in computers, with hd format drives being expensive, problematic and poorly supported options. And there are a lot of computers sold every year, as well as a lot of DVD players and DVDs.

About the only place where Blu-Ray has any real tangible lead is in the number of PS3's sold with a blu-ray drive... well, all of them do. But in the grand sceme of things, that aint much. To ad insult to injury, the DVD equiped Wii is kicking its ass:p

I see blu-ray going the same way as UMD... insufficient sales going forward for studios to justify the continued expense of supporting it.

Ive already seen blue-ray players on a $1350 laptop. So I would say that has already started. Not that I personally find that compelling before it is either writeable or I have a larger blu-ray collection, but that is definately affordable, and it is early yet.

You forgot many options, most notably "Both will remain a niche market". Even if HD DVD folds and Uni and Paramount both go Blu-ray, I have a hard time seeing HDM reaching any level outside the enthusiast segment in 2 years. I don't think HD optical media will die, per se, but at the rate it's going now, it will be a niche market.

Think about it. HD DVD has been on retail shelves for almost 2 years, Blu-ray almost as long. Were are we? <3% of the home video market under best estimates.

I tend to agree with this. However, one spin is that Uni and Paramount remain HD DVD exclusive for the rest of 2008. War is not over, confusion remains, buyers stay on the sideline. That could be IMO the death of HDM as neither format reaches mass market adoption (niche IMO = death). I just don't think BD will have a compelling enough story (i.e. low priced media, low priced full featured players, etc.) by the end of the year. I hope I am wrong about this. I really would like to replace my BDP9000 with a better player this year but there's going to have to be a bunch of good Blu news for me to buy another player for that format.

Anyone else think its funny that less than 8% of the people here now say that HD DVD will win, and sad that it is because 9% of them moved from HD DVD to the death of HDM?

This is kind of a hard poll in my opinion. while I think the format war is basically over, I don't know if I should pick HDDVD gone completely or just irrelevant. Toshiba could keep making players until hell freezes over if they want to, and while people keep saying they should get out for the overall good of HDM, I'm not sure what Toshiba has to gain by the overall good of HDM.

They aren't a studio. They make license fees off of DVDs. What remaining stake do they have in a next generation format? It has been posted here that sony approached them for a next generation format like 10 years ago but they had no interest in accelerating the demise of DVD. What has changed for Toshiba?

This is kind of a hard poll in my opinion. while I think the format war is basically over, I don't know if I should pick HDDVD gone completely or just irrelevant. Toshiba could keep making players until hell freezes over if they want to, and while people keep saying they should get out for the overall good of HDM, I'm not sure what Toshiba has to gain by the overall good of HDM.

They aren't a studio. They make license fees off of DVDs. What remaining stake do they have in a next generation format? It has been posted here that sony approached them for a next generation format like 10 years ago but they had no interest in accelerating the demise of DVD. What has changed for Toshiba?

Well they might make money from people upgrading hardware (new standalones, new computers, new TVs, etc). One of the major justifications for them making a new format (HD-DVD) in the first place was that DVD was hitting a 'saturation point', and a new format is needed to reinvigorate sales.

Well they might make money from people upgrading hardware (new standalones, new computers, new TVs, etc). One of the major justifications for making a new format in the first place, was that DVD was hitting a 'saturation point', and a new format is needed to reinvigorate sales.

Yes, though they would be late to the game with a blu-ray entry even if they started designing today. After prices reach commodity they wouldn't be any better off than they are with a DVD player today. I don't know if that window is closing too rapidly for them or not.

no showing of new models at ces for hd-dvd did not inspire much confidence.
or any other manufacturer showing a high end player for that mater. if they
have an ace up their sleeve it needs to surface soon.

Just for fun..

2 Years
Paramount and Universal go neutral, $200-500 *new model players. HDM reaches a whopping 3% market share.

5 Years
100gb discs widely available, BD drives are common in new computers, HDM grabs 15% market share.

10 Years
200gb discs!!!! $70 players, every new computer has a BD burner, HDM holds 40% market share, HDTV penetration in US reaches 80%

I think Blu Ray will be the last commercial optical disc format(movies, shows etc.) so it'll probably last for a couple decades.

the bad news for blu-ray fanboys is that the toshiba hd-a3 is the #1 selling high-definition video disc player at bestbuy.com and amazon. the hd-a30 at #4 on bestbuy.com only trails two blu-ray players (one from sony and one from sharp) that are being given away for free with (sony and sharp) 1080p hdtv's. the hd-a35 is sold out online at bestbuy.com

hd-a3, a30, and a35 are #2, 3, and 5 among all DVD players at Amazon (two Phillips upconverting standard-definition DVD players are #1 and #4)

http://www.bestbuy.com/site/olspage.jsp?st=processingtime%3A%3E1900-01-01&qp=crootcategoryid%23%23-1%23%23-1~~q70726f63657373696e6774696d653a3e313930302d30312d3031~~ca bcat0100000%23%230%23%23wv~~cabcat0102000%23%230%23%2322~~ca bcat0102001%23%230%23%235~~nf31%7C%7C48444d49204f75747075747 3&usc=abcat0100000&nrp=15&type=page&sp=-bestsellingsort+skuid&sc=TVVideoSP&id=pcat17080

http://www.amazon.com/gp/bestsellers/electronics/172514******pd_ts_e_nav

the high-definition video disc market is so far from mass market consumption if you think consumers have decided anything yet you are flat out wrong. we are seeing hd-dvd hardware sell now, and software sales will come later. it doesn't take much figuring that one of the reasons why sacd's and dvd-a's failed is because hardly anyone had a dvd player that supported either of those formats, and people really weren't interested in buying an expensive player for something they had never heard of.

HD-DVD players have been parked at #1 on Amazon throughout the demise of HD-DVD. They were #1 for every HD-DVD weekly Nielsen loss of 2007, all 52 of them. They were probably #1 when Warner went Blu-Ray exclusive. The evidence suggests that the Amazon hardware rankings have zero impact on the overall numbers and have zero predictive value. If we went by Amazon's hardware numbers, HD-DVD would have won in a landslide, but instead we've seen two weeks of 80%+ on the software side from Nielsen and a week of 90%+ on the hardware side from NPD. (I'm not saying this isn't a weekly quirk, but it is a fact.)

Unless someone can give a plausible explanation why one ought to put any faith in Amazon's hardware rankings in light of these facts, I will continue to look at them as essentially worthless.

if sales of blu-ray media and players continue paramount and universal are not
going to keep ignoring loss of sales to those costumers i'm sure their bean counters
are watching stats closer than we are.

HD DVD survives quite well as long as they have BOTH Universal and Paramount as EXCLUSIVE studios. As soon as that breaks, they are done.

HD-DVD players have been parked at #1 on Amazon throughout the demise of HD-DVD. They were #1 for every HD-DVD weekly Nielsen loss of 2007, all 52 of them. They were probably #1 when Warner went Blu-Ray exclusive. The evidence suggests that the Amazon hardware rankings have zero impact on the overall numbers and have zero predictive value. If we went by Amazon's hardware numbers, HD-DVD would have won in a landslide, but instead we've seen two weeks of 80%+ on the software side from Nielsen and a week of 90%+ on the hardware side from NPD. (I'm not saying this isn't a weekly quirk, but it is a fact.)

Unless someone can give a plausible explanation why one ought to put any faith in Amazon's hardware rankings in light of these facts, I will continue to look at them as essentially worthless.

NPD's hardware numbers don't include Amazon, so you are right on one point -- Amazon has zero effect on NPD because NPD doesn't count them, so I would seriously question your assumption that Amazon's hardware rankings are worthless when they should complement NPD's #'s.

"NPD's numbers do not include online sales from the likes of Amazon, where Toshiba's HD-A3 HD DVD player is the number one seller in the DVD player category and number 14 in all of electronics."

http://www.betanews.com/article/print/NPD_Free_Bluray_player_deals_led_to_boosted_sales_this_month/1201203983

NPD's hardware numbers don't include Amazon, so you are right on one point -- Amazon has zero effect on NPD because NPD doesn't count them, so I would seriously question your assumption that Amazon's hardware rankings are worthless when they should complement NPD's #'s.

"NPD's numbers do not include online sales from the likes of Amazon, where Toshiba's HD-A3 HD DVD player is the number one seller in the DVD player category and number 14 in all of electronics."

http://www.betanews.com/article/print/NPD_Free_Bluray_player_deals_led_to_boosted_sales_this_month/1201203983

Betanews has no credibility. If NPD doesn't include Amazon, that is fine, but I can't rely on Betanews for that. In any event, Toshiba's own numbers at CES tell us that there was essentially parity in stand-alone players sales by the end of the Holidays despite HD-DVD players being parked at all the top Amazon slots throughout 2007, including the holidays. Amazon's rankings have little impact, regardless of who does the measuring.

NPD's hardware numbers don't include Amazon, so you are right on one point -- Amazon has zero effect on NPD because NPD doesn't count them, so I would seriously question your assumption that Amazon's hardware rankings are worthless when they should complement NPD's #'s.

"NPD's numbers do not include online sales from the likes of Amazon, where Toshiba's HD-A3 HD DVD player is the number one seller in the DVD player category and number 14 in all of electronics."

http://www.betanews.com/article/print/NPD_Free_Bluray_player_deals_led_to_boosted_sales_this_month/1201203983


I think his main point was the software sales, and no matter what ranking HD DVD players have had for more than a year now, they haven't had one week where they sold more software than BD. Not one week.

the bad news for blu-ray fanboys is that the toshiba hd-a3 is the #1 selling high-definition video disc player at bestbuy.com and amazon. the hd-a30 at #4 on bestbuy.com only trails two blu-ray players (one from sony and one from sharp) that are being given away for free with (sony and sharp) 1080p hdtv's. the hd-a35 is sold out online at bestbuy.com

hd-a3, a30, and a35 are #2, 3, and 5 among all DVD players at Amazon (two Phillips upconverting standard-definition DVD players are #1 and #4)

http://www.bestbuy.com/site/olspage.jsp?st=processingtime%3A%3E1900-01-01&qp=crootcategoryid%23%23-1%23%23-1~~q70726f63657373696e6774696d653a3e313930302d30312d3031~~ca bcat0100000%23%230%23%23wv~~cabcat0102000%23%230%23%2322~~ca bcat0102001%23%230%23%235~~nf31%7C%7C48444d49204f75747075747 3&usc=abcat0100000&nrp=15&type=page&sp=-bestsellingsort+skuid&sc=TVVideoSP&id=pcat17080

http://www.amazon.com/gp/bestsellers/electronics/172514******pd_ts_e_nav

the high-definition video disc market is so far from mass market consumption if you think consumers have decided anything yet you are flat out wrong. we are seeing hd-dvd hardware sell now, and software sales will come later. it doesn't take much figuring that one of the reasons why sacd's and dvd-a's failed is because hardly anyone had a dvd player that supported either of those formats, and people really weren't interested in buying an expensive player for something they had never heard of.

I'm neutral in this whole game, since I honestly don't care who wins. I think the differences are fairly negligible and most of the selling points of each format are minor and capable of changing or being changed fairly easily (disc capacity, audio encoding, features, etc)

That said, I find it interesting that Best Buy's #2 and #3 best selling DVD players are both Blu-Ray players costing over 100% more than the #1 ranked HDDVD player. It seems that cost is the only thing keeping the Blu players from being #1 and it appears to only be barely doing that.

Beyond that, 3 out of the top 5 ranked players are Blu-Ray. The average cost of those players is $466.66 versus the 2 HDDVD players costing on average $175.00. I think it speaks volumes that people are spending, on average, nearly 5 times more to buy a format-specific device, instead of the cheaper competing device.

Of course, I don't know how Best Buy tallies these totals and whether they're based on actual sales vs. promotions, etc. Still, from a numbers only standpoint, I find it very interesting.

Betanews has no credibility. If NPD doesn't include Amazon, that is fine, but I can't rely on Betanews for that. In any event, Toshiba's own numbers at CES tell us that there was essentially parity in stand-alone players sales by the end of the Holidays despite HD-DVD players being parked at all the top Amazon slots throughout 2007, including the holidays. Amazon's rankings have little impact, regardless of who does the measuring.

I would like to point out that throughout 2007 you could get an HD DVD player for less than any BD player, generally much less, just like now.

the bad news for blu-ray fanboys is that the toshiba hd-a3 is the #4 selling upscaling DVD player at bestbuy.com and amazon.Fixed

I would like to point out that throughout 2007 you could get an HD DVD player for less than any BD player, generally much less, just like now.


Yes...and you can always find a car cheaper than a Benz.... But I know what I prefer to drive..... I drive what Warner drives...

I picked #1 just because I see where bland is going with this. By the way bland... Has anyone ever told you that picture of you (if its you)in your avatar looks like a young peter north LOL!

jeff any plans to get the bd-50.

I picked #1 just because I see where bland is going with this. By the way bland... Has anyone ever told you that picture of you (if its you)in your avatar looks like a young peter north LOL!

Hahahaha! I had noticed that too. (Maybe he *is*.... Naaahhh.)

Yes...and you can always find a car cheaper than a Benz.... But I know what I prefer to drive..... I drive what Warner drives...
I thought you drove a VW (or at least did)?:D

Just for fun..

2 Years
Paramount and Universal go neutral, $200-500 *new model players. HDM reaches a whopping 3% market share.

5 Years
100gb discs widely available, BD drives are common in new computers, HDM grabs 15% market share.

10 Years
200gb discs!!!! $70 players, every new computer has a BD burner, HDM holds 40% market share, HDTV penetration in US reaches 80%

I think Blu Ray will be the last commercial optical disc format(movies, shows etc.) so it'll probably last for a couple decades.

Wooooo... how about a little perspective on the technology:p

10 yrs ago... 90 mhz PowerPC 601, 8 MB RAM, 500 MB HD, 4x CD-ROM, $2,000 ... and 33.6kbps dial-up
Today.... 3,000 mhz Athlon 64 X2, 2,000 MB RAM, 1,000,000 MB HDs, 20x DVD-DL-RW... $800 .... and 6,000kbps cable

Some superficial numbers that don't even get to the core numbers of bus speeds, bus width, transfer speeds, network speed....

Holy Crap, my graphics card alone has more processing power and more ram then most computers from 5 years ago!!!

Ten years ago most people didn't even have the CD-ROM drive, and would load up Windows 95 from a boatload of 0.00144 GB diskettes!!!!!( we used to say 1.44 MB)

In the last ten years processing rate up 3,300%, RAM cap. up 25,000%, storage up 20,000%, net access speed up 18,000%.... bla, bla, bla....

Do you honestly think in ten years from now we are going to be playing with big bulky 5 in plastic disk that can only hold




wait for it...


0.2 TB!!!

pulleeaazzzzeeee... at the rate things are going 10 years thumb drives (or what ever) will hold a terrabyte, cost 5 bucks, and people won't want them because they won't be able to hold enough.

The only bad news for Blu-ray supporters is that Universal and Paramount still aren't making movies for our players.

Everything else is just... everything else.

more bad news for Blu-Ray supporters: the HD-A3 is the #1 selling high-definition video disc player at CircuitCity.com in addition to BestBuy.com and Amazon. The consumer is speaking now in favor of HD DVD. Screaming on this board isn't going to do anything when millions of people buy HD DVD players and turn the tide against Blu-Ray.

http://www.circuitcity.com/rpsm/catOid/-16221/Ns/accm_num_unts_sld|1/link/ref/N/20012866+20012872+20016221/rpem/ccd/categorylist.do

I'm neutral in this whole game, since I honestly don't care who wins. I think the differences are fairly negligible and most of the selling points of each format are minor and capable of changing or being changed fairly easily (disc capacity, audio encoding, features, etc)

That said, I find it interesting that Best Buy's #2 and #3 best selling DVD players are both Blu-Ray players costing over 100% more than the #1 ranked HDDVD player. It seems that cost is the only thing keeping the Blu players from being #1 and it appears to only be barely doing that.

Beyond that, 3 out of the top 5 ranked players are Blu-Ray. The average cost of those players is $466.66 versus the 2 HDDVD players costing on average $175.00. I think it speaks volumes that people are spending, on average, nearly 5 times more to buy a format-specific device, instead of the cheaper competing device.

Of course, I don't know how Best Buy tallies these totals and whether they're based on actual sales vs. promotions, etc. Still, from a numbers only standpoint, I find it very interesting.

did you even read what i said before responding? the blu-ray players that were #2 and #3 at bestbuy.com were being given away for free with a 1080p (of the same manufacturer) hdtv purchase, so a lot of people were not paying $400-$500 for these blu-ray players.

the hd-a30 is now #3 at bestbuy.com. the promotion on the sony ended yesterday, and it is currently holding at #2 (nine hours after sale ended). the promotion on the sharp continues this week but it has dropped to #4.

http://www.bestbuy.com/site/olspage.jsp?st=processingtime%3A%3E1900-01-01&qp=crootcategoryid%23%23-1%23%23-1~~q70726f63657373696e6774696d653a3e313930302d30312d3031~~ca bcat0100000%23%230%23%23wv~~cabcat0102000%23%230%23%2322~~ca bcat0102001%23%230%23%235~~nf31%7C%7C48444d49204f75747075747 3&usc=abcat0100000&nrp=15&type=page&sp=-bestsellingsort+skuid&sc=TVVideoSP&id=pcat17080

"the hd-a30 at #4 on bestbuy.com only trails two blu-ray players (one from sony and one from sharp) that are being given away for free with (sony and sharp) 1080p hdtv's."

more bad news for Blu-Ray supporters: the HD-A3 is the #1 selling high-definition video disc player at CircuitCity.com in addition to BestBuy.com and Amazon. The consumer is speaking now in favor of HD DVD. Screaming on this board isn't going to do anything when millions of people buy HD DVD players and turn the tide against Blu-Ray.

http://www.circuitcity.com/rpsm/catOid/-16221/Ns/accm_num_unts_sld|1/link/ref/N/20012866+20012872+20016221/rpem/ccd/categorylist.do

That isn't bad news for Blu-ray supporters, it is bad news for uninformed consumers.

Not to mention they can get the same player in store for the clearance price of 100.04.

did you even read what i said before responding? the blu-ray players that were #2 and #3 at bestbuy.com were being given away for free with a 1080p (of the same manufacturer) hdtv purchase"


So, paraphrasing the original post by nsrii

I think it speaks volumes that people are spending, on average, [infinate] times more to buy a format-specific device, instead of the [free] competing device... from a numbers only standpoint, I find it very interesting.

So, paraphrasing..

Overpaying for a TV w/ a BD player isn't getting one for free.

They think it adds value which is why they overpay for the TV.

edit: Either that or they don't do any research before purchases, so these consumers are basically HD DVD consumers who where poached. :)

Yes...and you can always find a car cheaper than a Benz.... But I know what I prefer to drive..... I drive what Warner drives...
I think a better analogy is you can get a Ford for less than a Toyota, but the #2 carmaker is now Toyota.

If the cheapest was the way to the masses, than why isn't the Chevy Aveo the best selling car in America?

Overpaying for a TV w/ a BD player isn't getting one for free.

They think it adds value which is why they overpay for the TV.

edit: Either that or they don't do any research before purchases, so these consumers are basically HD DVD consumers who where poached. :)

Well... he was talking about BestBuy customers, so... there you go.

PS: that said, I have gotten some screaming deals out of BB, but I tend to watch prices, buy online and avoid the ignorant, albeit pushy, blueshirts.

PPS: I never buy cables at BB... well I did once, a DVI cable... but we've probably all made a mistake like that :(

more bad news for Blu-Ray supporters: the HD-A3 is the #1 selling high-definition video disc player at CircuitCity.com in addition to BestBuy.com and Amazon. The consumer is speaking now in favor of HD DVD. Screaming on this board isn't going to do anything when millions of people buy HD DVD players and turn the tide against Blu-Ray.

http://www.circuitcity.com/rpsm/catOid/-16221/Ns/accm_num_unts_sld|1/link/ref/N/20012866+20012872+20016221/rpem/ccd/categorylist.do
That's because Circuit City is having a "CLEARANCE" sale on the HD-A3. Click Here for the LINK (http://gizmodo.com/349351/circuit-city-clearing-out-hd-dvd-players-for-cheap-for-ever)

the news even made it on the gizmodo site.

more bad news for Blu-Ray supporters: the HD-A3 is the #1 selling high-definition video disc player at CircuitCity.com in addition to BestBuy.com and Amazon. The consumer is speaking now in favor of HD DVD. Screaming on this board isn't going to do anything when millions of people buy HD DVD players and turn the tide against Blu-Ray.

http://www.circuitcity.com/rpsm/catOid/-16221/Ns/accm_num_unts_sld|1/link/ref/N/20012866+20012872+20016221/rpem/ccd/categorylist.do

So this tide will turn into a wimper when (and that's not if) Paramount et al either go format neutral, or (more likely) are the last rats out of the sinking HD DVD ship and go solely BD.

Plus these players are being shoved out of the door as fast as BB and CC can shift them. What's going to take their place? BD of course. :rolleyes:

I have an A35, which I bought to support my HD DVD library. If given the choice, it will be the BD version of any film that I can get.

Millions will be left with expensive door stops, with a finite number of discs to play on them.

Seggers

more bad news for Blu-Ray supporters: the HD-A3 is the #1 selling high-definition video disc player at CircuitCity.com in addition to BestBuy.com and Amazon. The consumer is speaking now in favor of HD DVD. Screaming on this board isn't going to do anything when millions of people buy HD DVD players and turn the tide against Blu-Ray.

http://www.circuitcity.com/rpsm/catOid/-16221/Ns/accm_num_unts_sld|1/link/ref/N/20012866+20012872+20016221/rpem/ccd/categorylist.do

I just thought I'd point out to you that BD player sales are spread out over MANY manufacturer units, while virtually all HD-DVD sales go to Toshiba. It's not an insignificant distinction. In total, BD players have outsold HD-DVD players. Maybe the clearance sales and 7 free disk offers will help. Guess we will have to wait for the sales stats to give us the true story of any change in trend.

It is RUMOR that CC is discontinuing support of HD-DVD hardware. Anyone stating it as fact doesn't have the facts.

It is RUMOR that CC is discontinuing support of HD-DVD hardware. Anyone stating it as fact doesn't have the facts.
Then why the "clearance" signs?

Then why the "clearance" signs?

Reality has a well known 'blu' bias.

unless things have changed when something is marked clearance there is no returns
unless the unit is defective.read your bill of sale carefully.

BR can overtake DVD in a few years, but never kill it. HD DVD could have overtaken DVD in a few years, and then killed it with combo discs.

The good news for HD-DVD fanboys is that the Blu-Ray fanboys think that the BDA can buy off a major studio and charge $400+ for a Blu-Ray player at Best Buy and win the format war.


LOL.

But never mind that. It is history and people, as ever, believe what they want to believe. The legend will endure and we will never hear the end of “Beta was better than VHS.” If Blu-Ray becomes mainstream, it's going to be déja vu and the claims of the “superiority” of HD DVD over Blu-Ray will become increasingly strident as the years go by.

Indeed.

Brandon

all i can say it was a stupid for all the studios and ce not to agree on one format finish
it completely and have all new releases available at time of sale.

I think a better analogy is you can get a Ford for less than a Toyota, but the #2 carmaker is now Toyota.

If the cheapest was the way to the masses, than why isn't the Chevy Aveo the best selling car in America?

Another poor analogy. Any time someone compares HD DVD to Mc Donalds or to something like a Chevy Aveo, it screams "fanboy" to me.

thebland says he drives a "Benz" like Warner does. Well, there are no Mercedes Benz cars in the top ten list for 2007. There are no Acura, Audi, BMW, Cadillac, Infinity, or Lexus either.

So if Blu Ray is the "Benz" of HDM formats, how can you expect it to beat the "Toyota Corolla" that is SD DVD? :rolleyes:

See... the analogies and fanboyism are ridiculous.

i have a friend that makes a very fine living working for toyota as a mechanic.
they obviously break like every auto out there,but fun to drive and comfort i
will take a new caddy or benz any day other than that a truck works well.

Another poor analogy. Any time someone compares HD DVD to Mc Donalds or to something like a Chevy Aveo, it screams "fanboy" to me.I'm not comparing HD-DVD to a Chevy Aveo, I'm making a point that "cheap" doesn't always translate into better sales. The whole concept of HD-DVD stopping their inevitable funeral with $99 players is based only on fanboyism of the HD-DVD side. Reality is Toshiba is clearing out inventory - they may be making new players only because they have contracts with factories for x amount of units.
thebland says he drives a "Benz" like Warner does. Well, there are no Mercedes Benz cars in the top ten list for 2007. There are no Acura, Audi, BMW, Cadillac, Infinity, or Lexus either.That's the marketing GENIUS of Blu-Ray. First of all there is profit margin aplenty for lots of manufacturers to make players - only Toshiba makes HD-DVD players (no you can't count that early rebadged RCA and you can't count the non-existant Onkyo). Also, everyone aspires to the cars you quoted above, even if they can't afford them, so when the Blu-Ray players drop in price people who aspired before will see it as a bargain and grab them. Why sell them for $99 today making razor thin margins when less than 10% of the population even knows the product exists.

So if Blu Ray is the "Benz" of HDM formats, how can you expect it to beat the "Toyota Corolla" that is SD DVD? :rolleyes:If Mercedes Benz rolled out a $14,000 mini-benz that looked and acted like the $50,000 ones they wouldn't sell a single Corolla (of course Benz would be out of business for selling ten million units at a $20k loss on each one). But electronics are not cars - when production increases the cost of making players will also decrease. In time Blu-Ray players will come into the $79 to $99 range and that will be the end of SD-DVD. I give it five years for Blu-Ray sales to overtake SD-DVD, then five more years to get the new format HD3D where the same arguments will take place about how can HD3D overtake Blu-Ray without $99 players.

I'm not comparing HD-DVD to a Chevy Aveo, I'm making a point that "cheap" doesn't always translate into better sales. The whole concept of HD-DVD stopping their inevitable funeral with $99 players is based only on fanboyism of the HD-DVD side. Reality is Toshiba is clearing out inventory - they may be making new players only because they have contracts with factories for x amount of units.
That's the marketing GENIUS of Blu-Ray. First of all there is profit margin aplenty for lots of manufacturers to make players - only Toshiba makes HD-DVD players (no you can't count that early rebadged RCA and you can't count the non-existant Onkyo). Also, everyone aspires to the cars you quoted above, even if they can't afford them, so when the Blu-Ray players drop in price people who aspired before will see it as a bargain and grab them. Why sell them for $99 today making razor thin margins when less than 10% of the population even knows the product exists.

If Mercedes Benz rolled out a $14,000 mini-benz that looked and acted like the $50,000 ones they wouldn't sell a single Corolla (of course Benz would be out of business for selling ten million units at a $20k loss on each one). But electronics are not cars - when production increases the cost of making players will also decrease. In time Blu-Ray players will come into the $79 to $99 range and that will be the end of SD-DVD. I give it five years for Blu-Ray sales to overtake SD-DVD, then five more years to get the new format HD3D where the same arguments will take place about how can HD3D overtake Blu-Ray without $99 players.

I demand you stop making sense.:D

That's the marketing GENIUS of Blu-Ray.

I completely agree with you that Sony/BDA out-marketed Toshiba/HD DVD PRG. It's not about technical merit or "Mercedes vs. Volkswagen". It's all about marketing, back-room deals, corporate muscle, studio support, etc.

And didn't Mercedes try that with the C230? :p Hmmm... it's all starting to make sense now. If bland really does drive a Benz, it has to be the C230! :D

did you even read what i said before responding? the blu-ray players that were #2 and #3 at bestbuy.com were being given away for free with a 1080p (of the same manufacturer) hdtv purchase, so a lot of people were not paying $400-$500 for these blu-ray players.

the hd-a30 is now #3 at bestbuy.com. the promotion on the sony ended yesterday, and it is currently holding at #2 (nine hours after sale ended). the promotion on the sharp continues this week but it has dropped to #4.

http://www.bestbuy.com/site/olspage.jsp?st=processingtime%3A%3E1900-01-01&qp=crootcategoryid%23%23-1%23%23-1~~q70726f63657373696e6774696d653a3e313930302d30312d3031~~ca bcat0100000%23%230%23%23wv~~cabcat0102000%23%230%23%2322~~ca bcat0102001%23%230%23%235~~nf31%7C%7C48444d49204f75747075747 3&usc=abcat0100000&nrp=15&type=page&sp=-bestsellingsort+skuid&sc=TVVideoSP&id=pcat17080

"the hd-a30 at #4 on bestbuy.com only trails two blu-ray players (one from sony and one from sharp) that are being given away for free with (sony and sharp) 1080p hdtv's."

There's no need to be condescending, it's unnecessary. I did read what you wrote and I made it a point to mention that I wasn't sure how Best Buy tallied the sales numbers -- whether promotions were being counted or not, since I don't know for a fact that they are or not.

Regardless, if you remove the give aways, I still find it interesting that there were $400 to $800 Blu-Ray players, non-promotional to my knowledge, surpassing the much less expensive HD-DVD players on that same list. How is that explained? Should that be racked up to late adopters with money burning a hole in their pockets? People taking the dive and equating price with status/perceived longevity?? Does Best Buy have side by side comparisons of the two formats or do they tend to favor one of the other in store?

i don't see the downloads giving us 1080p and lossless audio for a price we can afford
however the disc are here now today and you own it and can play it as many times as
you like .

And didn't Mercedes try that with the C230? :p Hmmm... it's all starting to make sense now. If bland really does drive a Benz, it has to be the C230! :D
Nope..too showy....Toyota (Land Cruiser)

There's no need to be condescending, it's unnecessary. I did read what you wrote and I made it a point to mention that I wasn't sure how Best Buy tallied the sales numbers -- whether promotions were being counted or not, since I don't know for a fact that they are or not.

Regardless, if you remove the give aways, I still find it interesting that there were $400 to $800 Blu-Ray players, non-promotional to my knowledge, surpassing the much less expensive HD-DVD players on that same list. How is that explained? Should that be racked up to late adopters with money burning a hole in their pockets? People taking the dive and equating price with status/perceived longevity?? Does Best Buy have side by side comparisons of the two formats or do they tend to favor one of the other in store?

there are $800 samsung and lg dual format players (that play hd dvd and blu-ray) that don't sell that well (the lg is sold out online, though). these are dual-format players and shouldn't be classified as blu-ray players. there is a $700 sony blu-ray player and a $1,000 pioneer blu-ray player that don't sell that well (the pioneer is available instore only). they make up 4 of the 5 lowest (and it also happens to be the 3 lowest) selling high-definition video disc players at bestbuy.com. the hd-a35 (which is sold out online) is just below the samsung dual-format player.

http://www.bestbuy.com/site/olspage.jsp?st=processingtime%3A%3E1900-01-01&qp=crootcategoryid%23%23-1%23%23-1~~q70726f63657373696e6774696d653a3e313930302d30312d3031~~ca bcat0100000%23%230%23%23wv~~cabcat0102000%23%230%23%2322~~ca bcat0102001%23%230%23%235~~nf31%7C%7C48444d49204f75747075747 3&usc=abcat0100000&nrp=15&type=page&sp=-bestsellingsort+skuid&sc=TVVideoSP&id=pcat17080

the majority of the blu-ray players that bestbuy.com is selling are around $400-$500.

"Millions will be left with expensive door stops, with a finite number of discs to play on them."

There's no certainty that either side will win this format war as currently it feels like a little battle with fairly insignificant sales numbers (of player or media). Right now there are about 425 Blu-Ray discs available and 380 HD DVD's available in the United States, so both sides have piss poor selection of high-definition material.

"Reality is Toshiba is clearing out inventory - they may be making new players only because they have contracts with factories for x amount of units."

Reality is there will be a HD DVD advertisement on during the Super Bowl. The BDA decided not to advertise despite reportedly getting a 50% discount to the average rate of $2.7 million for a 30-second spot. Apparently the BDA would rather pay the studios money and try to strong-arm consumers into buying $400+ Blu-Ray players at Best Buy.

http://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/questex/hom012708/index.php

Apparently the BDA would rather pay the studios money and try to strong-arm consumers into buying $400+ Blu-Ray players at Best Buy.

I believe HD DVD made concessions to Paramount and Universal for not making BD discs. No one strong arms anyone into buying a luxury item like a DVD player, a big screen TV or a weekend at the Ritz Carlton. You buy simply to enjoy it, not because you 'need' it (like water, food, electricity).

Those who spend $400 on a Blu Ray do so because they want a Blu Ray player and will spend $400 to get it...

Oh and a 30 sec ad for HDDVD in the Superbowl isn't going to change anything. The ad announcement seems only another straw for to grasp at.. (like the Cheap Chinese players, the $99 HD DVD players, the permanent price cuts, etc, etc....).

I believe HD DVD made concessions to Paramount and Universal for not making BD discs. No one strong arms anyone into buying a luxury item like a DVD player, a big screen TV or a weekend at the Ritz Carlton. You buy simply to enjoy it, not because you 'need' it (like water, food, electricity).

Those who spend $400 on a Blu Ray do so because they want a Blu Ray player and will spend $400 to get it...

Oh and a 30 sec ad for HDDVD in the Superbowl isn't going to change anything. The ad announcement seems only another straw for to grasp at.. (like the Cheap Chinese players, the $99 HD DVD players, the permanent price cuts, etc, etc....).

$400 is still too much to pay IMHO since there are no assurances that Blu-Ray will actually prevail in the format war, and the unfinished spec makes it just all that less appealing (and, no, i do not want a ps3 for more than one reason, and one of the big ones is it does not have analog 5.1 audio outputs). IF blu-ray wins, profile 2.0 players will be available for under $200 in 2009.

you call it grasping at straws -- i call it appealing to the mass market consumer. as long as blu-ray players are over $200 and don't have total studio support they won't have mass market appeal (according to reed hastings, the ceo of netflix who wants high-definition video discs to take off).

HD DVD survives quite well as long as they have BOTH Universal and Paramount as EXCLUSIVE studios. As soon as that breaks, they are done.

They could only survive "quite well" under this scenario if the assumption is made that nearly every consumer in the HDM market goes format neutral. Universal and Paramount exclusivity (even with cheap players) is not enough alone to lure significant new numbers to the "HD-DVD only" camp, and most consumers will balk at buying two machines to achieve the same purpose. Blu-ray will continue to grow. HD-DVD growth will remain slow, and Paramount and Universal will continue to look more ridiculous as they continue to ignore a market hungry for their products.

As a blu-ray owner exclusively, I admit that with prices being what they are it would cost me very little to add HD-DVD compatibility to my system. But in the end, I just don't need one more player for a handful of movies from two studios. And, I don't feel like using any of my money to prolong the format war.

As for the "amazing sales numbers" that Toshiba is apparently having for their HD-DVD players, just a quick perusal of the HD-DVD forums here had me reading over a dozen posts about how folks in the red camp now have HD-DVD players for the bedroom, the game room, the kid's room, the cabin, the RV, the bathroom, the you name the room... A lot of those players seem to be going to the same consumers. A poll I'd like to see is for owners of HD-DVD only: How many players do you own? It wouldn't surprise me if the majority of HD-DVD users had more than one player.

Yes, cheap players are nice, but if the same guy owns a bunch, it doesn't help move discs.

We all want HD Media to take off.... But the problem at AVS is HD DVD supporters want a HD DVD priced BLu Ray player tomorrow.... It won't happen. Low player prices certainly couldn't overcome Sony's plan of allying with the most studios and incorporating the platform into a new game machine that will sell millions of units quickly. Moreover, the new Blu Ray technology is more forward thinking than the easily retrofittable HD DVD technology. There is a pecking order to be adhered to get to low prices. Volume, marketing, increased media, economy factors, time, etc. They'll get to $200 but perhaps not for a year or two.

more bad news for Blu-Ray supporters: the HD-A3 is the #1 selling high-definition video disc player at CircuitCity.com in addition to BestBuy.com and Amazon. The consumer is speaking now in favor of HD DVD. Screaming on this board isn't going to do anything when millions of people buy HD DVD players and turn the tide against Blu-Ray.

Want to know a dirty secret about sales numbers? They never count returns. Returns for angry reasons like, "what do you mean the player you sold me will only ever play 20% of the movies out there in HD?".

We all want HD Media to take off.... But the problem at AVS is HD DVD supporters want a HD DVD priced BLu Ray player tomorrow.... It won't happen. Low player prices certainly couldn't overcome Sony's plan of allying with the most studios and incorporating the platform into a new game machine that will sell millions of units quickly. Moreover, the new Blu Ray technology is more forward thinking than the easily retrofittable HD DVD technology. There is a pecking order to be adhered to get to low prices. Volume, marketing, increased media, economy factors, time, etc. They'll get to $200 but perhaps not for a year or two.

The problem isn't at AVS. The problem is with the general American consumer doesn't want to pay $400+ for a Blu-Ray player at Best Buy.

The general american consumer bought 10 million standard-definition DVD players in the first seven months of 2007.

I'm not sure why you, thebland, who are supposedly format-neutral seem so averse to Toshiba reaching out the American consumer to sell them an attractively priced HD-DVD player (that will play one of the 380 available HD DVD titles and will upconvert the other 90,000+ DVD's available -- via Netflix, etc.).

http://www.thedigitalbits.com/articles/cemadvdsales.html

We all want HD Media to take off.... But the problem at AVS is HD DVD supporters want a HD DVD priced BLu Ray player tomorrow.... It won't happen. Low player prices certainly couldn't overcome Sony's plan of allying with the most studios and incorporating the platform into a new game machine that will sell millions of units quickly. Moreover, the new Blu Ray technology is more forward thinking than the easily retrofittable HD DVD technology. There is a pecking order to be adhered to get to low prices. Volume, marketing, increased media, economy factors, time, etc. They'll get to $200 but perhaps not for a year or two.


+1. Yes, there's time for good things to happen between now and the holidays. Patience.

Want to know a dirty secret about sales numbers? They never count returns. Returns for angry reasons like, "what do you mean the player you sold me will only ever play 20% of the movies out there in HD?".

I don't think Amazon counts returns against their sales ranking, but I'm fairly sure most of the reputable hardware/software trackers like VideoScan, Rentrak, GfK, MediaCreate, etc. all count a return as a negative sale.

Want to know a dirty secret about sales numbers? They never count returns. Returns for angry reasons like, "what do you mean the player you sold me will only ever play 20% of the movies out there in HD?".

where did this 20% number come from??? guessing as usual... hd-dvd has 43% of all movies content ever made...

The problem isn't at AVS. The problem is with the general American consumer doesn't want to pay $400+ for a Blu-Ray player at Best Buy.

Then they simply have to patiently wait until they can afford one.... Like any other purchase in life. HD viewing is not a right...it is a luxury.

The general American consumer bought 10 million standard-definition DVD players in the first seven months of 2007.

And did DVD players start out at $200?? No. Not even close. It a couple years... Heck, it took a year or more of years just to get players with DTS output... (another 'incomplete' spec that became the standard viewing medium for the world:))


I'm not sure why you, thebland, who are supposedly format-neutral seem so averse to Toshiba reaching out the American consumer to sell them an attractively priced HD-DVD player (that will play one of the 380 available HD DVD titles and will upconvert the other 90,000+ DVD's available -- via Netflix, etc.).

http://www.thedigitalbits.com/articles/cemadvdsales.html

I am format neutral. I have owned a HD-A1, A2, and now have a XA2.

I am only averse to Toshiba as I want the best technology to prevail. Blu Ray is better. But better costs more. Time will being down the price. It has the most storage, best specs, bandwidth, etc... Blu Ray is the technically better format. This isn't even arguable. HD DVD was designed with 'retrofitability' in mind. Not to provide the best possible experience. Blu Ray plays DVD and upconverts as well (as just about every other DVD player on the planet) just like HD DVD.

where did this 20% number come from??? guessing as usual... hd-dvd has 43% of all movies content ever made...

Half of which will be out of print in 4 months. Hence 20%. Or is it that you believe that Paramount and Universal by themselves will continue to release 40+% of all new releases and continue to flood the market with catalog titles? You must be under the impression that Paramount and Universal are as committed to seeing HD-DVD win the format war as you and Toshiba are. News flash: They only want to sell discs. They're not married to what kind of disc they'd like to sell.

Half of which will be out of print in 4 months. Hence 20%. Or is it that you believe that Paramount and Universal by themselves will continue to release 40+% of all new releases and continue to flood the market with catalog titles? You must be under the impression that Paramount and Universal are as committed to seeing HD-DVD win the format war as you and Toshiba are. News flash: They only want to sell discs. They're not married to what kind of disc they'd like to sell.

ok come back and talk in 4 months... please...

ok come back and talk in 4 months... please...

Why? Are you pretending that Warner will go back on their decision now? Do you really think those titles aren't going out of print?

Why? Are you pretending that Warner will go back on their decision now? Do you really think those titles aren't going out of print?

i thought about that to why would they continue those titles when the inventory
is done thats all folks.

I believe HD DVD made concessions to Paramount and Universal for not making BD discs. No one strong arms anyone into buying a luxury item like a DVD player, a big screen TV or a weekend at the Ritz Carlton. You buy simply to enjoy it, not because you 'need' it (like water, food, electricity).

Those who spend $400 on a Blu Ray do so because they want a Blu Ray player and will spend $400 to get it...

Oh and a 30 sec ad for HDDVD in the Superbowl isn't going to change anything. The ad announcement seems only another straw for to grasp at.. (like the Cheap Chinese players, the $99 HD DVD players, the permanent price cuts, etc, etc....).

If GMC purchased or bribed 80% of the gas distribution centers and refused to let them provide fuel to Toyotas you would not feel strong armed? You would not reconsider utilizing a GMC product? Even if they fixed a higher price point? Would you expect GMC to continue to push for higher quality, lower prices and better fuel efficiency to reward you for your decision? This is the reality of our "Format war".

Both blue and red formats are fully capable of providing a equally high quality end user experience on our screens and in our HT Rooms. We buy players to view content, it matters not a nit what color the laser is. In the end it is media and distribution, not a hardware that determines the winner.

As HDM enthusiasts and leaders in the migration to HDM how do we gain anything promoting a strategy that is intent on providing artificial price support and exclusivity? Do we really feel that we will be rewarded for encouraging this practice?

Un-regulated monopolies are rarely in the consumers best interest. IMO we will be far better served by encouraging and supporting the separation of the production and the distribution attributes of media production. Let the studios focus on producing and reproducing good content. Release it on all three: SDVD, Blue Ray and HDDVD at the same time. The hardware manufactures, licensing and distributes can duke it out. Let the most efficient way to get HDM into our theaters prevail by market demand.

This is the exact strategy that opened up the video game market. When the market was opened up to the content developers the console rapidly developed a huge market dominance. It was the only one of several format war decisions that this company made right and they are still reaping the benefits. Consumers have been enjoying the fruits of this decision for years. Has this lesson been forgotten so soon?

PS. I bet you can't guess which game system?

Enjoy HDM ,
dlouw

And did DVD players start out at $200?? No. Not even close. It a couple years... Heck, it took a year or more of years just to get players with DTS output... (another 'incomplete' spec that became the standard viewing medium for the world:))


Don't forget lack of progressive scan :)

Brandon

We all want HD Media to take off.... But the problem at AVS is HD DVD supporters want a HD DVD priced BLu Ray player tomorrow.... It won't happen. Low player prices certainly couldn't overcome Sony's plan of allying with the most studios and incorporating the platform into a new game machine that will sell millions of units quickly. Moreover, the new Blu Ray technology is more forward thinking than the easily retrofittable HD DVD technology. There is a pecking order to be adhered to get to low prices. Volume, marketing, increased media, economy factors, time, etc. They'll get to $200 but perhaps not for a year or two.

Many At AVS don't want just a cheaper BD player, that want the BD player to be HD DVD. We have some that are buying BD now, some that will buy BD when the price drops and spec changes take place, and some, if you can believe them, won't buy a BD player at all, ever in 16 lifetimes, 22 forevers, and all eternity. They claim to be HDM and AV enthusiasts, but it seems only to a point.

If GMC purchased or bribed 80% of the gas distribution centers and refused to let them provide fuel to Toyotas you would not feel strong armed? You would not reconsider utilizing a GMC product? Even if they fixed a higher price point? Would you expect GMC to continue to push for higher quality, lower prices and better fuel efficiency to reward you for your decision? This is the reality of our "Format war".

Both blue and red formats are fully capable of providing a equally high quality end user experience on our screens and in our HT Rooms. We buy players to view content, it matters not a nit what color the laser is. In the end it is media and distribution, not a hardware that determines the winner.

As HDM enthusiasts and leaders in the migration to HDM how do we gain anything promoting a strategy that is intent on providing artificial price support and exclusivity? Do we really feel that we will be rewarded for encouraging this practice?


Man that is a great, great analogy and the argument is impregnable.

Brandon

If GMC purchased or bribed 80% of the gas distribution centers and refused to let them provide fuel to Toyotas you would not feel strong armed?

Remember that the BDA is not the only side to use money to determine the format of "choice" for a studio.

Un-regulated monopolies are rarely in the consumers best interest.


How is Blu Ray any more of a monopoly than DVD or HD DVD? Please explain.

Wooooo... how about a little perspective on the technology:p

10 yrs ago... 90 mhz PowerPC 601, 8 MB RAM, 500 MB HD, 4x CD-ROM, $2,000 ... and 33.6kbps dial-up
Today.... 3,000 mhz Athlon 64 X2, 2,000 MB RAM, 1,000,000 MB HDs, 20x DVD-DL-RW... $800 .... and 6,000kbps cable

Some superficial numbers that don't even get to the core numbers of bus speeds, bus width, transfer speeds, network speed....

Holy Crap, my graphics card alone has more processing power and more ram then most computers from 5 years ago!!!

Ten years ago most people didn't even have the CD-ROM drive, and would load up Windows 95 from a boatload of 0.00144 GB diskettes!!!!!( we used to say 1.44 MB)

In the last ten years processing rate up 3,300%, RAM cap. up 25,000%, storage up 20,000%, net access speed up 18,000%.... bla, bla, bla....

Do you honestly think in ten years from now we are going to be playing with big bulky 5 in plastic disk that can only hold




wait for it...


0.2 TB!!!

pulleeaazzzzeeee... at the rate things are going 10 years thumb drives (or what ever) will hold a terrabyte, cost 5 bucks, and people won't want them because they won't be able to hold enough.A little misleading. About 10 years ago was the release of the Pentium 2, so it was more like 300mhz+ computers with 64mb ram and 56k connection.
10 years ago there was Windows 98, yes most people did have a cd-rom.. I cant imagine there would be alot of people installing the OS with 50+ floppy discs.. Dont know why it would be crazy to think BD roms wouldnt still be available 10 years from now.
And 1 terabyte thumb drives will most likely cost $30 10 years from now, like 2gb drives now. Even if it was 10, 15, 20 dollars whatever.. expendable 25 cent optical discs will still have its place in the future.
Another thing is that the next 360, PS4, Wii2 will most likely use Blu Ray. That alone will make sure the format stays in electronics for a good while.

The majority of recent posts have nothing to do with the topic of the thread, which is a prediction and an explanation of that prediction. It is not another thread to simply revert to the same old talking points about why we are where we are so that the thread gets locked.

Remember that the BDA is not the only side to use money to determine the format of "choice" for a studio.

How is Blu Ray any more of a monopoly than DVD or HD DVD? Please explain.

To some, the equation is very simple: Sony is evil, Toshiba is not. There is no point engaging in a logical argument with someone who acts like Sony killed their dog and raped their mother.

I picked 3, but I also think that it's possible that BD will fail, too. I certainly hope not, as I want high def media, but the general public seems apathetic to the new formats.

To some, the equation is very simple: Sony is evil, Toshiba is not. There is no point engaging in a logical argument with someone who acts like Sony killed their dog and raped their mother.

If you build a reputation as sony has over the years, are we supposed to ignore it?

To some, the equation is very simple: Sony is evil, Toshiba is not. There is no point engaging in a logical argument with someone who acts like Sony killed their dog and raped their mother.


Even more illogical when the same things are said by those who have never owned a Sony.

If GMC purchased or bribed 80% of the gas distribution centers and refused to let them provide fuel to Toyotas you would not feel strong armed? You would not reconsider utilizing a GMC product? Even if they fixed a higher price point? Would you expect GMC to continue to push for higher quality, lower prices and better fuel efficiency to reward you for your decision? This is the reality of our "Format war".

Both blue and red formats are fully capable of providing a equally high quality end user experience on our screens and in our HT Rooms. We buy players to view content, it matters not a nit what color the laser is. In the end it is media and distribution, not a hardware that determines the winner.

As HDM enthusiasts and leaders in the migration to HDM how do we gain anything promoting a strategy that is intent on providing artificial price support and exclusivity? Do we really feel that we will be rewarded for encouraging this practice?

Un-regulated monopolies are rarely in the consumers best interest. IMO we will be far better served by encouraging and supporting the separation of the production and the distribution attributes of media production. Let the studios focus on producing and reproducing good content. Release it on all three: SDVD, Blue Ray and HDDVD at the same time. The hardware manufactures, licensing and distributes can duke it out. Let the most efficient way to get HDM into our theaters prevail by market demand.

This is the exact strategy that opened up the video game market. When the market was opened up to the content developers the console rapidly developed a huge market dominance. It was the only one of several format war decisions that this company made right and they are still reaping the benefits. Consumers have been enjoying the fruits of this decision for years. Has this lesson been forgotten so soon?

PS. I bet you can't guess which game system?

Enjoy HDM ,
dlouw

It's reality. Won't change a thing for HD DVD.

But being you're from Oregaon, I'll cut you some slack..

I just purchased a very nice 6-Pack of Pinot Noir from Willamette.

Ken Wright Cellars... Have you tried it?

Archery Summit is another favorite from Oregon...

If you build a reputation as sony has over the years, are we supposed to ignore it?

I have only owned the Sony PS systems and tv's and maybe a walkman over the years. How have they built this reputation? What is it with this emotional attachment of hatred against a company that hasn't done a damn thing to anyone personally. How could they as they don't know you or I personally, nor do we know them. They make products and sell them to people who WANT them.

I talk up the tv's and PS3 NOT because they are Sony, as I don't give a good damn about them as a company other than I know the name as a reference point for the particular item I want to buy. I talk the products up that I like and that I feel work well and are worthy of a purchase. If the SOny name is on there great and if not fine as well.

Hmm, let me see. I'll start with the root kit mess not too long ago, how did sony fix that? A coupon for a few bucks off more sony products. How about the sony entertainment dvd's that would not play in sony's own dvd players, I could go on but you get the idea. For every thing sony does right they manage to shoot themselves in the foot just as often.

It's reality. Won't change a thing for HD DVD.

But being you're from Oregaon, I'll cut you some slack..

I just purchased a very nice 6-Pack of Pinot Noir from Willamette.

Ken Wright Cellars... Have you tried it?

Archery Summit is another favorite from Oregon...




Hey no making fun of us Oregonians Jeff even if I am not a native. I have some excellent wineries within a few miles of where I live. Eola Hills, Sokol Blosser which is just down the hill from Archery Summit, Willamette Valley Vineyards, Montinore Vineyards are just some of the few within an hour or much less.

A little misleading. About 10 years ago was the release of the Pentium 2, so it was more like 300mhz+ computers with 64mb ram and 56k connection.
10 years ago there was Windows 98, yes most people did have a cd-rom.. I cant imagine there would be alot of people installing the OS with 50+ floppy discs.. Dont know why it would be crazy to think BD roms wouldnt still be available 10 years from now.
And 1 terabyte thumb drives will most likely cost $30 10 years from now, like 2gb drives now. Even if it was 10, 15, 20 dollars whatever.. expendable 25 cent optical discs will still have its place in the future.

No, not at all. Please, you can read wiki entries but you apperently have no sense of what your reading.

First, the system described from 10 years ago was my own Macintosh, alright. It did not have a pentium anything I can assure you.

Second, while the Pentium II may well have been released to mfrs in q2/q3 of '97, the installed base would not have been significant for a couple of years after that, more like '99 then '98. In '98 most users would have had a 486, a 586, or an early pentium. Upgrading was neither easy nor cheap as intel left the socket design for the slot design, and the new ram was ridiculous.

Third, 10 years ago Windows 98 was still a few months off, but that wounldn't matter to many people as most would have to buy new machines to run it. Again, no significant numbers till well into '99.

Forth, CD_roms only became common after the release of Win98. Most Win95 machines didn't have them, as they were for most of the mid '90s a $200-$400 option. Further, almost no notebooks had them. Actually, I remember making 40 or 50 back-up floppies for a work machine once, so yah, people did. It wasn't crazy, it's just the way it was.

And, please, $30 should get you at least an 8gig thumb drive. If you're paying 30 for a 2 gig it had better be gold encased with a certificate of authenticity from the Franklin Mint!

$.25 for dvd-r maybe... bluray disc are $10 a pop. And honestly I don't ever see people using them that much, so it's unlikely the price will come down. .40/GB for blue ray vs .20/GB for actually hard disk, no one is going to use blu ray for back up. Hell, at .40/gb you can can a Terrabyte NAS ($400) vs 40 Blurays ($400 @ $10 ea.).

That and the fact that the new specs basically disallow individuals from making anything other then a data disc, and people have basically no reason to by a Bluray writer. Why do you people think Apple has passed on Bluray? There is nothing there for them.

So, no, not misleading. Pretty much the way it was on the ground.

I have only owned the Sony PS systems and tv's and maybe a walkman over the years. How have they built this reputation? What is it with this emotional attachment of hatred against a company that hasn't done a damn thing to anyone personally. How could they as they don't know you or I personally, nor do we know them. They make products and sell them to people who WANT them.

I talk up the tv's and PS3 NOT because they are Sony, as I don't give a good damn about them as a company other than I know the name as a reference point for the particular item I want to buy. I talk the products up that I like and that I feel work well and are worthy of a purchase. If the SOny name is on there great and if not fine as well.

my feelings exactly had a lot of their stuff over the years still have afew
they have never held a gun to someones head and forced them to buy their
products.

OK - I got it now! In five years Tosh will come out with an SD card distribution system for movies - - - - - - and Sony will do the same thing with memory stick!

Dave

Folds on the set top box market, I think it will exisit for niche purposes since the drives and particularly media are so inexpensive to make, probably XBOX and some computer uses.

OK - I got it now! In five years Tosh will come out with an SD card distribution system for movies - - - - - - and Sony will do the same thing with memory stick!

Dave

nah... in two to five years we'll all have 10 to 50 mbps internet and we'll get our hd that way.

I know... it's not as glamorous as a big shiny blu disc you can dangle from your earring, but it will probably work just fine.

It'll probably leave everyone on dial-up out of the HD picture, but, let's be real, if you're on dial-up HD is probably the least of your worries.

As it is right now, I've been torrenting a lot of BBC HD stuff and it beats the crap out of what I get from Cable PQ wise. Amazon unBox is a mixed bag... the older stuff looks like crap, but the newer stuff is better than SD cable but not quite DVD. Netflix is good, kind like Amazon. Haven't tried iTunes, but I guess the HD is for the Apple TV anyways.

And Hulu is surprisingly not sucky. Actually, I've whatched Firefly on Hulu and the PQ is better than the cable co's SD Sci-Fi feed!

I have Joost and VeohTV as well, but, well, this is an HD forum and, well, they both do suck... have potential, but for now, they suck... though it is cool to see Bab5 again.

Out of all though, OTA is probably still the best, even if you do have to futz with antennas again... just go to PC Alchemy and they'll hook you up

I think it will exisit for niche purposes since the drives and particularly media are so inexpensive to make, probably XBOX and some computer uses.
HD DVD drives aren't any less expensive to make than Blu-ray drives, as far as anyone knows. There might - might - be a small single-digit-dollar difference in the laser diode cost these days. Toshiba's standalone pricing may have fooled some, but the base technologies used in both HD DVD and Blu-ray are strikingly similar (blue-violet laser drive, high density optical pickup, internal memory, various decoders, etc.).

Writable media and burners for HD DVD are actually noticeably more expensive than their Blu-ray counterparts.

HD DVD is toast in the PC world. Toshiba is almost two full generations of development behind Blu-ray tech on the burner front, and the blank HD DVD media is lagging badly too.

you call it grasping at straws -- i call it appealing to the mass market consumer. as long as blu-ray players are over $200 and don't have total studio support they won't have mass market appeal (according to reed hastings, the ceo of netflix who wants high-definition video discs to take off).I think everyone should go to business school, if only to learn that when something becomes a mass market item it has entered the product cycle called "commodity". A lesson Toshiba failed to learn and is backed up by the fact that no other manufacturer makes an HD-DVD player.

No, not at all. Please, you can read wiki entries but you apperently have no sense of what your reading.

First, the system described from 10 years ago was my own Macintosh, alright. It did not have a pentium anything I can assure you.You had a macintosh... what was that.. 5% of the market share back then?

Second, while the Pentium II may well have been released to mfrs in q2/q3 of '97, the installed base would not have been significant for a couple of years after that, more like '99 then '98. In '98 most users would have had a 486, a 586, or an early pentium. Upgrading was neither easy nor cheap as intel left the socket design for the slot design, and the new ram was ridiculous.

Third, 10 years ago Windows 98 was still a few months off, but that wounldn't matter to many people as most would have to buy new machines to run it. Again, no significant numbers till well into '99.

Forth, CD_roms only became common after the release of Win98. Most Win95 machines didn't have them, as they were for most of the mid '90s a $200-$400 option. Further, almost no notebooks had them. Actually, I remember making 40 or 50 back-up floppies for a work machine once, so yah, people did. It wasn't crazy, it's just the way it was.Who cares. Im talking about what was commonly available at retail, not your local pawn shop or garage sale. Like if you buy a 40" tv now you'd be hardpressed finding one that wasnt at least 720p, the fact that HDTV's have a low percentage installed base has no relevance on the matter. And dont use notebooks as an example, they werent common in the 90's like they are now.

And, please, $30 should get you at least an 8gig thumb drive. If you're paying 30 for a 2 gig it had better be gold encased with a certificate of authenticity from the Franklin Mint!These are regular prices at retail. If you dont believe me just go to Bestbuy.com. Most people dont find these crazy obscure internet deals like you do, sorry.

$.25 for dvd-r maybe... bluray disc are $10 a pop. And honestly I don't ever see people using them that much, so it's unlikely the price will come down. .40/GB for blue ray vs .20/GB for actually hard disk, no one is going to use blu ray for back up. Hell, at .40/gb you can can a Terrabyte NAS ($400) vs 40 Blurays ($400 @ $10 ea.). Ok so blu ray prices will never come down.. gotcha.:rolleyes:

That and the fact that the new specs basically disallow individuals from making anything other then a data disc, and people have basically no reason to by a Bluray writer. Why do you people think Apple has passed on Bluray? There is nothing there for them.

So, no, not misleading. Pretty much the way it was on the ground.*sigh
Apple not currently offering a BD Drive in their macbooks doesnt say anything about the future.

Again, we'll most likely see the PS4, X720, and Wii2 still using optical based media. That alone keeps BD relevant to the PC and HT market for at least a decade. Or maybe youre gonna tell me next gen console games will only be available through digital distribution lol.

If GMC purchased or bribed 80% of the gas distribution centers and refused to let them provide fuel to Toyotas you would not feel strong armed?YES!
You would not reconsider utilizing a GMC product? Even if they fixed a higher price point? I would NOT reconsider utilizing a GMC product since it would be the only product that would get me to work and back. Just the opposite, I'd buy a GMC product, but complain to my Senator.
Would you expect GMC to continue to push for higher quality, lower prices and better fuel efficiency to reward you for your decision? Not at all.
This is the reality of our "Format war". No, it's not. All cars are designed to run on the same fuel, Sony and Toshiba decided to design new standards, but they both can utilize SD-DVD. It would be like buying a GMC that would run on Ethanol or Gas, but not Toyotas version of Methonol or Gas.

Both blue and red formats are fully capable of providing a equally high quality end user experience on our screens and in our HT Rooms. Except for LONG movies - > 3 hours, this is true.
We buy players to view content, it matters not a nit what color the laser is. In the end it is media and distribution, not a hardware that determines the winner. Finally, someone who understands that content and not $99 players is what the consumer cares about.
As HDM enthusiasts and leaders in the migration to HDM how do we gain anything promoting a strategy that is intent on providing artificial price support and exclusivity? Because competition will still prevail. SD-DVD as well as high def on-demand movies are far more prevalent than Blu-Ray.
Do we really feel that we will be rewarded for encouraging this practice? Absolutely. The BDA doesn't want a niche product letting Toshiba rack in royalties from the old DVD format. They want those royalities and they know they have to beat SD-DVD. Of course, using your analogy, why did DVD prices ever drop below $400?

Un-regulated monopolies are rarely in the consumers best interest. IMO we will be far better served by encouraging and supporting the separation of the production and the distribution attributes of media production. Let the studios focus on producing and reproducing good content. Release it on all three: SDVD, Blue Ray and HDDVD at the same time. Maybe company's like Fox and Disney are sick and tired of watching their products get pirated. It will be a sad world when the gov't decides how a company is allowed to distribute their own property.

Hmm, let me see. I'll start with the root kit mess not too long ago, how did sony fix that? A coupon for a few bucks off more sony products. How about the sony entertainment dvd's that would not play in sony's own dvd players, I could go on but you get the idea. For every thing sony does right they manage to shoot themselves in the foot just as often.
OK - Sony screwed up the root kit mess, I agree. Can we all remember when Toshiba sold secrets to the Soviet Union, endangering our lives? I've forgiven Toshiba a decade ago, it's time to ease up on Sony who only proved once again that Microsoft has an OS that is full of security holes.

OK - Sony screwed up the root kit mess, I agree. Can we all remember when Toshiba sold secrets to the Soviet Union, endangering our lives? I've forgiven Toshiba a decade ago, it's time to ease up on Sony who only proved once again that Microsoft has an OS that is full of security holes.


Sony has a long track record of deals like this, and they never seem to learn. Less than a year after the rootkit CD mess they changed tactics and tried it on USB thumbdrives. Now thats the kind of company I want to do business with. /sarcasm

Sony has a long track record of deals like this, and they never seem to learn. Less than a year after the rootkit CD mess they changed tactics and tried it on USB thumbdrives. Now thats the kind of company I want to do business with. /sarcasmMake any decision you want - that's your freedom, but comparing what happened on a thumb drive to silent nuclear submarine technology is hardly comparable in terms of ethic violations.

I only point out sony's issues due to the claim that blu ray has won, we should all hop on the bandwagon. Last I heard was the PS3 being the only reccomended player, and sony is the only one making them. I , like many others will wait for a stand alone profile 2.0 player NOT made by sony. If I buy in to blu ray at all.

You had a macintosh... what was that.. 5% of the market share back then?

Hmmm... nice. A Mac jab... I guess my assumption as to your maturity, well.... Yeah..
5% of the market, but 100% of the innovation, as always.:cool:

Who cares. Im talking about what was commonly available at retail, not your local pawn shop or garage sale. And dont use notebooks as an example, they werent common in the 90's like they are now.

Yeah.. so was I... Walk into Best Buy and compare the number of AthlonX2 and C2D machines available to the number of C2E QX9650's... and they've been out ALL OF 2008!!!
New Means Expensive, Expensive Means Slow Mover. Slow Mover may sit on end cap for flash, but cheap fast movers will get most of the floor space

These are regular prices at retail. If you dont believe just go to Bestbuy.com. Most people dont find these crazy obscure internet deals like you do, sorry.

Well, Best Buy ain't the best place to buy anything unless you wait... try Fry's if you're lucky enough to live near one, or get on some mailing list for like newegg or mwave or directron or et al.

Ok so blu ray prices will never come down.. gotcha.:rolleyes:

Oh, they might, somewhat. But they are harder to fab then DVD-r, and the situation with them will probably be similar to DVD-DL-r... many years after release and DL-r's are still +/- 2 bucks a pop ($.20-.25/GB) vs. -r at .25/ea (.05/GB)
In any case, the price on bluray disc would need to be cut in half right now just to be competative with HDD, and they are getting bigger and cheaper all the time.

*sigh
Apple not currently offering a BD Drive in their macbooks doesnt say anything about the future.

Funny... It sure did a few weeks ago when everyone was anticipating it:rolleyes: But I guess the Warner thing was a bigger so it don't matter now

Again, we'll most likely see the PS4, X720, and Wii2 still using optical based media. That alone keeps BD relevant all of this decade.

I doubt it... They will probably wanna go with a subscription model for the next round of players, thats why they are working on their online components. They will charge less for the players, all the games will be included in the monthly fee, and extra revenue will come with accessories / controllers / add-ons.

They will be able to complete eliminate piracy AND totaly be able to monitor what you play, how you play, when and where you play so they will be able to fine tune the games to make them even more addictive. Future Video games may seem more like crack then fun.

So, actually, the argument AGAINST removable media is much stronger then the argument for it.

And don't look now, but there are only 23 months left in this "decade". But hey, UMD is still around!

The majority of recent posts have nothing to do with the topic of the thread, which is a prediction and an explanation of that prediction. It is not another thread to simply revert to the same old talking points about why we are where we are so that the thread gets locked.

Almost no posts since this post have been on topic (there have been a few, however) and now we are heavily into bash Sony territory. It is unfortunate that people cannot stay on topic so that legitimate threads can avoid being locked.

I think everyone should go to business school, if only to learn that when something becomes a mass market item it has entered the product cycle called "commodity". A lesson Toshiba failed to learn and is backed up by the fact that no other manufacturer makes an HD-DVD player.

I guess you did not go to marketing school because your definition of a "commodity" is totally wrong. Look it up.

fafner

Make any decision you want - that's your freedom, but comparing what happened on a thumb drive to silent nuclear submarine technology is hardly comparable in terms of ethic violations.

You cannot compare things at all if you really know about and understand ethics.

Look for ethical conundrum or something like that and you will find that things are either ethical or not.
There is no such thing as more ethical or less ethical.

This is twice you have made mistatements so please know what you are talking about before you post illogical and ill-informed statements.

fafner

I guess you did not go to marketing school because your definition of a "commodity" is totally wrong. Look it up.

fafner

His usage is a bit unorthodox, but his terminology is mostly correct.

http://www.cannonadvantage.com/product_mkt_mgmt.html

Just as a product has its own life cycle, it also has an almost opposite curve called the commodity slide. In the introduction stage of the commodity slide, volume is low and revenue per unit sold is very high. As progress on the learning curve is made, costs are reduced, making the product more affordable to more customers and increasing volume. The increasing volume that develops in the early stages of the commodity slide also draws additional competitors. Businesses strive to increase market share to achieve enough volume to justify more automated processes. As volume increases and revenue per unit decreases, the product moves from specialized solution to commodity status.

i don' t put much faith in downloading hdm or vod for hdm currently i can not go
a month without some kind of failure of one or both now add 1080p with lossless
it becomes vaporware fast. (senario no.4)

I picked 3, but I also think that it's possible that BD will fail, too. I certainly hope not, as I want high def media, but the general public seems apathetic to the new formats.

And the million, or, billion dollar question is why? That is a huge factor in trying to predict what's going to happen in the future. It's likely a combination of factors, and if the BDA can get the right mix of factors in their favor they have a great chance to supplant DVD as the home video optical format of choice.

If you build a reputation as sony has over the years, are we supposed to ignore it?

No, you're supposed to think for yourself and not let sensationalism rule your decision making process.

Of course, using your analogy, why did DVD prices ever drop below $400?

Fairy dust was sprinkled on them!

Brandon

Hmmm... nice. A Mac jab... I guess my assumption as to your maturity, well.... Yeah..
5% of the market, but 100% of the innovation, as always.:cool:

Yeah.. so was I... Walk into Best Buy and compare the number of AthlonX2 and C2D machines available to the number of C2E QX9650's... and they've been out ALL OF 2008!!!
New Means Expensive, Expensive Means Slow Mover. Slow Mover may sit on end cap for flash, but cheap fast movers will get most of the floor spaceIf you walked into a store in 98' the vast majority of computers are over 90mhz with a CDrom.. comparing between a C2D machine and C2E isnt a great analogy at all since theyre still both dual core machines. How about comparing between dual core machines and the celeron and turion chips?

Well, Best Buy ain't the best place to buy anything unless you wait... try Fry's if you're lucky enough to live near one, or get on some mailing list for like newegg or mwave or directron or et al.Are you gonna discount Walmart too? $30 for 4gb.
http://www.walmart.com/catalog/product.do?product_id=6372746


Oh, they might, somewhat. But they are harder to fab then DVD-r, and the situation with them will probably be similar to DVD-DL-r... many years after release and DL-r's are still +/- 2 bucks a pop ($.20-.25/GB) vs. -r at .25/ea (.05/GB)
In any case, the price on bluray disc would need to be cut in half right now just to be competative with HDD, and they are getting bigger and cheaper all the time.
CD: 650mb, 6gb Harddrives
DVD: 9gb, 40gb
BD: 50gb, 320gb
*average size HD's in computer. So dont use your 1TB external harddrive or $5000 alienware as examples.
There really is no trend suggesting that HDD price/capacities are outpacing optical price/capacities. At least not to the level at which optical media would become useless even in a few years when 2TB storage will be common in desktop computers.

Funny... It sure did a few weeks ago when everyone was anticipating it:rolleyes: But I guess the Warner thing was a bigger so it don't matter now

I doubt it... They will probably wanna go with a subscription model for the next round of players, thats why they are working on their online components. They will charge less for the players, all the games will be included in the monthly fee, and extra revenue will come with accessories / controllers / add-ons.

They will be able to complete eliminate piracy AND totaly be able to monitor what you play, how you play, when and where you play so they will be able to fine tune the games to make them even more addictive. Future Video games may seem more like crack then fun.

So, actually, the argument AGAINST removable media is much stronger then the argument for it.

And don't look now, but there are only 23 months left in this "decade". But hey, UMD is still around!A service like Steam (http://www.steampowered.com/v/index.php) on consoles would work, but to assume in 5 years that would be the only way to play games is really reaching. Actually I heard Microsoft will probably jump the gun again.. so make that 3-4 years.

You cannot compare things at all if you really know about and understand ethics.

Look for ethical conundrum or something like that and you will find that things are either ethical or not.
There is no such thing as more ethical or less ethical.

This is twice you have made mistatements so please know what you are talking about before you post illogical and ill-informed statements.
Right. It is unethical for a business to attempt to gain an advantage by learning their trade secrets by having a prostitute sleep with their CEO, and it is also unethical for a business to help a nations arch enemy overthrow their government. Since their both unethical, you equate the two as equal.

I have my MBA and can assure you I've had these arguments with the pinhead professors who never lived life in the real world.

I think everyone should go to business school, if only to learn that when something becomes a mass market item it has entered the product cycle called "commodity". A lesson Toshiba failed to learn and is backed up by the fact that no other manufacturer makes an HD-DVD player.

I guess you did not go to marketing school because your definition of a "commodity" is totally wrong. Look it up.
Might help your debating skills to point out flaws rather than open yourself up to an easy rebuttal by using a term like "totally wrong":
The product life cycle suggests that, as product categories mature, they become more susceptible to the forces of commoditization.
http://hbswk.hbs.edu/item/5830.html

I have my MBA and can assure you I've had these arguments with the pinhead professors who never lived life in the real world.Just out of curiosity, does it hurt my argument to say what I quoted above and then in the next reply put in a link to Harvard Business School? :p

Why? Are you pretending that Warner will go back on their decision now? Do you really think those titles aren't going out of print?

universal and paramount own 43% of total fiims made is what i am saying, and thats with warner gone. so hd-dvd has 43% of all films to offer to the public still.. i wasnt talking about warner at all. so your 20% is FUD.

Someone on here had a really good idea the other day. I think HD-DVD would have a solid chance IF they took a chance and released EVERYTHING HD-DVD/DVD format ONLY. No standard DVDs. This puts a large rental base in the stores without taking up extra shelf space. People will buy something if its cheaper and widely available. IMO most people don't care to own media they will never watch again. The dual format gives the people without the hardware a chance to watch it on DVD. At this point if they don't take big chances they are dead.

universal and paramount own 43% of total fiims made is what i am saying, and thats with warner gone. so hd-dvd has 43% of all films to offer to the public still.. i wasnt talking about warner at all. so your 20% is FUD.

FUD or not...~85% of AVS Forum feels HD DVD is either gone or will have a secondary role to the foramt war winner, Blu Ray..... My faith inthe forum has been restored. Universal and Paramount may have a lot of movies intheir quiver, but Warner broke their bow string.

We truly have many blessings here in Oregon. Wonderful Wine, beer and Home Theaters. I live in the Willamette Valley and can personally visit a half dozen wineries on a Sunday afternoon for months on end and not see the same one twice. Fabulous way to keep the cellar stocked. No Ken Wright at the moment, I will keep an eye out. Foris has some very nice bottling available this year.

I fell off the turnip truck here a couple years ago, so I am aware the writing is on the wall. The market will follow the media. If Sony can maintain control of the media it is done. Toshiba would have to have a huge ace in the hole to survive for long. Their interests may well lie in prolonging the SDVD gravy train as long as possible.

I have a PS3 and a XA2 in my theater room and enjoy both immensely. I am format neutral and pro consumer. What concerns me is the efforts of the manufactures and studios to keep HDM a niche market and SDVD the status quo. Just look at our selection of HDM available to us and it is obvious. Visit the Blockbuster or Netflix forums. This is how many consumers support the industry. The industry is strangling HDM. The lions share of the cost is in distribution not production. They should make money by selling content not back room deals, bribes, licensing incentives and buyouts. Shell games. Doing business in this fashion lines a few pockets well and leaves the rest of us and whats left of the companies to foot the bill. We have a voice here. Lets use it for our benefit not to line some execs golden parachute.

Enjoy HDM,
dlouw

FUD or not...~85% of AVS Forum feels HD DVD is either gone or will have a secondary role to the foramt war winner, Blu Ray..... My faith inthe forum has been restored. Universal and Paramount may have a lot of movies intheir quiver, but Warner broke their bow string.

no its FUD alright, there is no "or not" about it...

universal and paramount own 43% of total fiims made is what i am saying, and thats with warner gone. so hd-dvd has 43% of all films to offer to the public still.. i wasnt talking about warner at all. so your 20% is FUD.

Please provide a link to this info. Also as of now catalogue titles don't sell so all that matters are current titles. In 2006 Universal had the smallest market share (10.9%) with Paramount the 2ed smallest (11%).

with toshiba making the only player for hd-dvd and the support from only 2 movie
studios i don't see it making a comeback or being around by christmas 08 also not
having a new player show at ces did not help matters .

universal and paramount own 43% of total fiims made is what i am saying, and thats with warner gone. so hd-dvd has 43% of all films to offer to the public still.. i wasnt talking about warner at all. so your 20% is FUD.

According to Blu-raystats and hddvdstats,

692 individual HDM releases on both formats releases on BRD and HDDVD SI.

Paramount has 11 HD DVD exclusives. 1.58%*

Dreamworks has 4 HD DVD exclusives. 0.58%

Universal has 144 HD DVD exclusives. 20.5%

22.66% of total HDM releases are Paramount/Dreamworks/Universal exclusives.

FUD or not...~85% of AVS Forum feels HD DVD is either gone or will have a secondary role to the foramt war winner, Blu Ray..... My faith inthe forum has been restored. Universal and Paramount may have a lot of movies intheir quiver, but Warner broke their bow string.

Jeff, 90% of the 500 people who voted in your poll think that HD DVD is either gone or will have a secondary role in the format war. So you are making your 85% assumption on a poll that is statistically not significant (actually hardly any website internet poll has any statistical significance) -- I'm glad you feel that you can translate your 500-person poll to over a quarter million AVS Forum members. And how did you expect a lay person to vote when you preface the poll by saying "Warner dealt a death blow to HD DVD" before presenting the choices? Zogby or Rassmussen who do political polls would probably laugh heartily at this poll, and pee themselves about your 85% comment.

"HD DVD/ Blu Ray Media Predictions: Where Will It Be in 2 years (Poll)?
Too many of us here at AVS forum...Warner dealt a death blow to HD DVD....On the other hand, many fell it is merely a set back... I know where I stand but would like to know where other HD DVD owners stand on this... The poll is simple..

Where do you see HD DVD in 2 years:

1. HD DVD disposes of Blu Ray in the movie market...... Or HD DVD simply Supplants Blu Ray. HD DVD will likely have taken root in the USA in 2 years and the cheap players will make for a reversal of fortune for HD DVD to resurrect it from the [apparent] dead. HD DVD has overcome Blu Ray despite Blu Ray's current stronghold on the format war lead. HD DVD will be how we all buy HD content and BLu Ray will be for storage and/or games.

2. HD DVD will coexist with Blu Ray. They may or may not have any exclusive studios in 2 years but Toshiba will continue to make players and the b e it for mass storage or some other use for HD DVD, it will continue to be manufactured and used by consumers in some manner or another.

3. HD DVD will no longer exist. Blu Ray wins. Toshiba will likely sell out all the players they have in stock at fire sale prices (a last gasp of air). Universal and Paramount will ride out their exclusivity contracts (or not) and go to the Blu side so as to sell more software and HD DVD will cease to exist with virtually no movie softeware...no more software and no more players.

4. I'm a conspiracy theorist. HD downloads will end the short reign of HD DVD and Blu Ray. Or DVD will reign supreme as people will get their HD from cable, satellite or just plain forget it and go back to DVD. Certainly this will never happen but I just can't stand this war and hope, in a hail Mary pass, this might...just might....happen and both sides implode..
__________________
Jeff

Format Neutral and loving it: Toshiba XA2 and Panny BD-10. CIH remodel in progress!!!
Last edited by thebland : 01-24-08 at 10:23 PM. "

Jeff, 90% of the 500 people who voted in your poll think that HD DVD is either gone or will have a secondary role in the format war. So you are making your 85% assumption on a poll that is statistically not significant (actually hardly any website internet poll has any statistical significance) -- I'm glad you feel that you can translate your 500-person poll to over a quarter million AVS Forum members. And how did you expect a lay person to vote when you preface the poll by saying "Warner dealt a death blow to HD DVD" before presenting the choices? Zogby or Rassmussen who do political polls would probably laugh heartily at this poll, and pee themselves about your 85% comment.

Stop trying to confuse us with logic and reason! :p

This poll isn't about accuracy, objectivity, honesty, or facts. It's about spin... with a dash of gloating sprinkled on top.

Many At AVS don't want just a cheaper BD player, that want the BD player to be HD DVD. We have some that are buying BD now, some that will buy BD when the price drops and spec changes take place, and some, if you can believe them, won't buy a BD player at all, ever in 16 lifetimes, 22 forevers, and all eternity. They claim to be HDM and AV enthusiasts, but it seems only to a point.

:DI think I may have said ''no way will I go Blu ray'',but if the player prices eventually reach the point I can afford,I will probably go Purple.
The kids love their Disney,and you know if there just happens to be a title or two the old man would like to watch..cough..cough..Into the Blue with Jessica Alba:D,that would just be an added bonus.
Besides I can always blame going Purple on the kids right?;);)

i never have seen so much emotion towards formats they are just machines that
play software it is not the first time or will it be the last that you or i will buy into
a format that did not survive.the important thing is we can get hd if we want it.

i never have seen so much emotion towards formats they are just machines that
play software it is not the first time or will it be the last that you or i will buy into
a format that did not survive.the important thing is we can get hd if we want it.

Ditto...If HD DVD won today and BLU RAY went belly up, I'd support it 100%. Like who gives a crap?! Blu Ray won, get over it and enjoy the movies.. Anything folks here belly ache about won't changera thing.

It's about the movies...remember??!!

Ditto...If HD DVD won today and BLU RAY went belly up, I'd support it 100%. Like who gives a crap?! Blu Ray won, get over it and enjoy the movies.. Anything folks here belly ache about won't changera thing.

This is exactly how I feel. If Blu Ray had lost, I would have sold my Blu discs and gone 100% HD DVD. No questions asked.

I have been slowly selling off my "red" discs for two weeks. Suprisingly I have been getting about 50% of what I originally paid for most of my HD DVD's, so I am not getting hurt as bad as I would have thought.

Everyone on this forum needs to buck up, support Blu Ray and help quicken the adoption by the masses.

This is exactly how I feel. If Blu Ray had lost, I would have sold my Blu discs and gone 100% HD DVD. No questions asked.

I have been slowly selling off my "red" discs for two weeks. Suprisingly I have been getting about 50% of what I originally paid for most of my HD DVD's, so I am not getting hurt as bad as I would have thought.

Everyone on this forum needs to buck up, support Blu Ray and help quicken the adoption by the masses.

i just don't understand this attitude. blu-ray hasn't won the war yet. they won the battle for warner brothers exclusivity. high-definition media IS being adopted faster than dvd despite the format war that people are claiming is hindering its adoption. dvd players were not given away for free with televisions in the 90's and at this relative point in time dvd player prices hadn't reached the lows that we have seen already in high-def video disc players.

http://www.videobusiness.com/index.asp?layout=articlePrint&articleID=CA6525812


"Everyone on this forum needs to buck up, support Blu Ray and help quicken the adoption by the masses."

You have got to be kidding me. The masses aren't adopting the $400+ Blu-Ray players at Best Buy.

i just don't understand this attitude. blu-ray hasn't won the war yet. they won the battle for warner brothers exclusivity. high-definition media IS being adopted faster than dvd despite the format war that people are claiming is hindering its adoption. dvd players were not given away for free with televisions in the 90's and at this relative point in time dvd player prices hadn't reached the lows that we have seen already in high-def video disc players.

http://www.videobusiness.com/index.asp?layout=articlePrint&articleID=CA6525812


"Everyone on this forum needs to buck up, support Blu Ray and help quicken the adoption by the masses."

You have got to be kidding me. The masses aren't adopting the $400+ Blu-Ray players at Best Buy.

I feel I am stating the obvious but it is apparently necessary.

It is possible for HDM adoption to be faster than DVD adoption and slowed by the format war.

I (and most others) agree that adoption has been held up by the war.

Absolutely. The BDA doesn't want a niche product letting Toshiba rack in royalties from the old DVD format. They want those royalities and they know they have to beat SD-DVD. Of course, using your analogy, why did DVD prices ever drop below $400?


It may have something to do with the studios not getting involved in the dispute. We had a choice of VCR, Laserdisk or DVD for all or most of our content. We won.

Enjoy HDM,
dlouw

I voted for option 2.

I think HDDVD is mostly dead. It will continue to exist for storage and possibly video-editing enthusiasts. You will still be able to get some new movies from smaller/foreign studios on HDDVD but blu-ray will be the default format.

I bought into HDDVD early and wish it had succeeded, but I know when to pay attention to the writing on the wall.

its a good thing most were not around for the previous format wars they would have
gave up already.i was not happy when i lost but if you enjoy this hobby you are in it
for the long haul.

i just don't understand this attitude. blu-ray hasn't won the war yet. they won the battle for warner brothers exclusivity.

Well, I can't understand why anyone would still support HD DVD.

Blu Ray has won the war, Toshiba hasn't led a statitistical category in software since 2006 and blu ray has sold more stand alones (at $400 mind you) since December.

HD DVD will be a blip in wikipedia in two years.

I feel I am stating the obvious but it is apparently necessary.

It is possible for HDM adoption to be faster than DVD adoption and slowed by the format war.

I (and most others) agree that adoption has been held up by the war.

HDM has been slowed by (not necessarily in this order):

1) Price (of players and media)

2) HDM only make sense if you have a high-definition set {HDTV's are only in about 30-50%(?) of households but they are getting into more additional households every day -- 50-75% by the end of 2008?}

3) Lack of total studio support for either format

4) Fear of buying into the wrong format

5) Little perceived additional benefit (DVD is just plain good enough for most people)

#3 & 4 are related to the format war.

#2 is clearly a problem that DVD did not face.

#5 i would argue is a problem that DVD did not really face.

#1 has been the driver of HDM -- without lower prices HDM would not be where it is today, even if there was only one format IMHO. if there was only one format ce manufacturers would have just raked in the profits (also IMHO), and prices would not have dropped so quickly. even now, blu-ray seems to give people blu-ray player functionality whether they want it or not (with a game console or a 1080p hdtv purchase), but the price of general admission is high (if you are only going for the player).

Well, I can't understand why anyone would still support HD DVD.

What... you can't understand that some people like choice and competition?

Blu Ray has won the war, Toshiba hasn't led a statitistical category in software since 2005 and blu ray has sold more stand alones (at $400 mind you) since December.

I think you mean 2006.

we are voicing what we would like or think on these forums but in order to know what
the general public thinks take a trip to your local retailers and see what is on the shelf
and what people are buying ask your neighbors friends and family.

Blu Ray has won the war, Toshiba hasn't led a statitistical category in software since 2005 and blu ray has sold more stand alones (at $400 mind you) since December.

This is silly. Go to Best Buy Online and look how many movies are available on BD and HD-DVD and standard DVD. Blu-Ray has 479, HD-DVD has 413 (Wow, big difference!) and DVD has over SIXTY SIX THOUSAND.

Now, who's winning the war again? Standard DVD is GOD.

This is silly. Go to Best Buy Online and look how many movies are available on BD and HD-DVD and standard DVD. Blu-Ray has 479, HD-DVD has 413 (Wow, big difference!) and DVD has over SIXTY SIX THOUSAND.

Now, who's winning the war again? Standard DVD is GOD.

oh, yeah, i totally for forgot the #6 reason that HDM adoption has been hindered:

6) lack of software whether you are blue, red, or purple.

What... you can't understand that some people like choice and competition?

I think you mean 2006.

Once again, you only think you have a choice most of the time. We are told what to buy EVERY day. Just open your eyes.


Sorry I meant to say 2006. Still a long time though....:D

I voted for option 2.

I think HDDVD is mostly dead.

Why does this remind me of The Princess Bride? :)

Brandon

Both niche, it's starting to look like.

But maybe that is just the way it is on this one. It just doesn't seem most want or even need the upgrade to HDM from SD-DVD.

Both niche, it's starting to look like.

But maybe that is just the way it is on this one. It just doesn't seem most want or even need the upgrade to HDM from SD-DVD.

Possibly, but lets say in 2009 BDA starts releasing new releases only on Blu Ray? Pricing comparable to todays SD DVD prices. With player prices coming down, it could happen.

That is why we need only ONE format. That format needs to start the fight against SD DVD.

Possibly, but lets say in 2009 BDA starts releasing new releases only on Blu Ray? Pricing comparable to todays SD DVD prices. With player prices coming down, it could happen.

That is why we need only ONE format. That format needs to start the fight against SD DVD.

"With player prices coming down, it could happen."

no, it won't. i brought it up about ten posts ago. there is still a large percentage of households that do not have a hdtv. the studios don't like a 4% drop in software sales. you think they are going to self-impose a 25% drop to benefit the hardware manufacturers?

really, keep coming up with funny ideas.

Since their [sic] both unethical.....

Perhaps an English course too.

fafner

Possibly, but lets say in 2009 BDA starts releasing new releases only on Blu Ray? Pricing comparable to todays SD DVD prices. With player prices coming down, it could happen.


Do you really think they would disenfranchise over ONE HUNDRED MILLION dvd owners in the US alone? They had better come up with a dual-format disc and get Toshiba's permission to do it!

That is why we need only ONE format. That format needs to start the fight against SD DVD.

With a big enough lever you could move the world. BD's lever is about 6 inches against SD DVD.

Do you really think they would disenfranchise over ONE HUNDRED MILLION dvd owners in the US alone? They had better come up with a dual-format disc and get Toshiba's permission to do it!

That's exactly what I said when I bought an 8-track and the next week it folded. Lucky they came out with the dual 8-track/LP so I was covered. Then of course the dual CD/LP was a great saviour of my new turntable. Seriously you will still be able to play DVD's so it will not be a total paper weight.

"With player prices coming down, it could happen."

no, it won't. i brought it up about ten posts ago. there is still a large percentage of households that do not have a hdtv. the studios don't like a 4% drop in software sales. you think they are going to self-impose a 25% drop to benefit the hardware manufacturers?

really, keep coming up with funny ideas.

What happens now. Best Buy doesn't even sell any analog sets. All digital. All EDTV or HDTV. In 2009, the MANDATORY use of HDTV becomes standard. How will that affect Blu Ray adoption. We don't know yet. But I guess you would even agree with me that it WILL help HDTV adoption.

It has been posted by a Blu Ray insider that they are not "fighting" HD DVD anymore. It is over for them. Now they are turning their attention to SD DVD. How they do that doens't matter. Retailers will help decide that "war".

Do you really think they would disenfranchise over ONE HUNDRED MILLION dvd owners in the US alone? They had better come up with a dual-format disc and get Toshiba's permission to do it!

They are predicting 8 million SA Blu Ray players sold this year. It doesn't matter if they are discounted, free with a tv or whatever. They are still in households. That is all that matters.

Why would they need permission from Toshiba to do anything?


With a big enough lever you could move the world. BD's lever is about 6 inches against SD DVD.

That "lever" will continue to grow with stand alone sales and PS3 sales. Lets say 9 million stand alones and 18 million PS3's in houses world wide by end of 2008.

thats a pretty big lever.....

Possibly, but lets say in 2009 BDA starts releasing new releases only on Blu Ray? Pricing comparable to todays SD DVD prices. With player prices coming down, it could happen.

And little winged monkeys in purple vests could come flying out of my... well, you know. :p Seriously, I can't see BD only releases happening any time soon unless it's done as a promotional stunt, followed shortly thereafter by the SD DVD release.

That is why we need only ONE format. That format needs to start the fight against SD DVD.

What you mean "we", white man? Everyone can agree it would be nice if there were only one HDM format, but that's not the case. The cat's out of the bag. But now we have studios and CE companies are trying to force the cat back into the back with heavy handed tactics.

The conventional wisdom is that only one format can survive in the long run, therefore everyone is quick to pick a winner and declare a loser. But life will go on just fine with two formats and HDM adoption would happen just fine with two formats *if* this studios would stop taking sides/bribes and the "there can BE only one" / "winner takes all" mentality was laid to rest.

Before the Warner announcement, we were a lot closer to that possibility becoming a reality (remember Howard Stringer talking about a "stalemate" back in November?), but I have to admit it now doesn't seem likely it will happen. Only time will tell.

That "lever" will continue to grow with stand alone sales and PS3 sales. Lets say 9 million stand alones and 18 million PS3's in houses world wide by end of 2008.

thats a pretty big lever.....

You still don't want to stop issuing movies on standard DVD when there are over 200 million players out there world-wide. That's just bad business for anyone's business model who happens to make money selling movies.

What happens now. Best Buy doesn't even sell any analog sets. All digital. All EDTV or HDTV. In 2009, the MANDATORY use of HDTV becomes standard. How will that affect Blu Ray adoption. We don't know yet. But I guess you would even agree with me that it WILL help HDTV adoption.

It has been posted by a Blu Ray insider that they are not "fighting" HD DVD anymore. It is over for them. Now they are turning their attention to SD DVD. How they do that doens't matter. Retailers will help decide that "war".



They are predicting 8 million SA Blu Ray players sold this year. It doesn't matter if they are discounted, free with a tv or whatever. They are still in households. That is all that matters.

Why would they need permission from Toshiba to do anything?




That "lever" will continue to grow with stand alone sales and PS3 sales. Lets say 9 million stand alones and 18 million PS3's in houses world wide by end of 2008.

thats a pretty big lever.....

"In 2009, the MANDATORY use of HDTV becomes standard."

No, the government is auctioning off the analog spectrum. We are going digital in 2009. SDTV's can still get a signal over the air with a converter box which is going to be practically free with a $30 coupon.

"How will that affect Blu Ray adoption. We don't know yet. But I guess you would even agree with me that it WILL help HDTV adoption."

Do you really think that people that don't pay for cable are going to run out and buy a HDTV?

"It has been posted by a Blu Ray insider that they are not 'fighting' HD DVD anymore. It is over for them. Now they are turning their attention to SD DVD. How they do that doens't matter. Retailers will help decide that 'war'."

Well, they should be concerned about HD DVD. If Toshiba can move enough players, HD DVD will be a serious thorn in Blu-Ray's side. You think 1 million HD DVD owners can be ignored. Do you think 2 million HD DVD owners can be ignored? How about 3 million, 4 million, or 5 million? What does Blu-Ray have? 500,000 people with a SA Blu-Ray player. 3 million game console owners who may or may not watch Blu-Ray movies on their console (some of whom probably have their PS3 hooked up to a SDTV).

"They are predicting 8 million SA Blu Ray players sold this year. It doesn't matter if they are discounted, free with a tv or whatever. They are still in households. That is all that matters."

Who is this they who is predicting the 8 million? I'm serious -- I'd like to know. That is one crazy prediction (8 million SA Blu-Ray players sold in 2008).

Once again, you only think you have a choice most of the time. We are told what to buy EVERY day. Just open your eyes.

If that's the case, does having only one HDM format give us more choice or less choice? You can argue that in a perfect world a single ubiquitous, universal, and cost-effective HDM format would ensure a maximum number of movies get released in high definition, but I'm not so sure it will play out that way. Obviously SD DVD is a lot more ubiquitous, universal, and cost-effective than BD or HD DVD. Obviously SD DVD is the real "enemy" here.

Now, which HDM format was better positioned to supplant SD DVD back in 2006? Which one is better positioned now? What changed? (Rhetorical questions. No need to answer.)

Everyone wants BD or HD DVD to be the next DVD, but that may not happen. This isn't the 90's. Technology is moving faster than ever and there are more choices than ever for distribution and playback. So I'm just not convinced that killing HD DVD off is the answer so many people think it is.

Here's my problem--and I wonder how general it is. We have kids, and like many parents, we're buying mostly movies the kids can watch. I bought the POTC series on BD, which means we can watch it in the main theater room. Last week, my wife wanted to let the kids watch the movie in another room--no go as I only have 1 BD player. Her attitude is: "You paid $75 for 3 movies we can only watch in one room?" I suspect she'll be even more honked when we start to make road trips in the summer. Her attitude is that the the BDs look good, but that the price and hassle factor isn't worth the value she sees in them. I suspect that she'd feel the same about HD DVD, but at $99, we have a player in every TV-equipped room (now, if only there was something to play on them! :)

Brian

And little winged monkeys in purple vests could come flying out of my... well, you know. :p Seriously, I can't see BD only releases happening any time soon unless it's done as a promotional stunt, followed shortly thereafter by the SD DVD release.

If you have monkeys in your butt, you might need to go to the doctor.:D It is all speculation right now. My point is the why would the BDA stop now?


What you mean "we", white man?

Actually I meant Home Theater enthusiasts and consumers as a whole. Mankind. People with exposable income. Inhabitants of the planet earth that puchase HDM. White People? WTF?



Everyone can agree it would be nice if there were only one HDM format, but that's not the case. The cat's out of the bag. But now we have studios and CE companies are trying to force the cat back into the back with heavy handed tactics.

The conventional wisdom is that only one format can survive in the long run, therefore everyone is quick to pick a winner and declare a loser. But life will go on just fine with two formats and HDM adoption would happen just fine with two formats *if* this studios would stop taking sides/bribes and the "there can BE only one" / "winner takes all" mentality was laid to rest.


Pretty much every place in the world except a few "select" web sites and three stubborn companies have conceded that Blu Ray has won.

You are kidding yourself if you think two formats can survive. Buy Betamax lately? How about laser disc? It doesn't happen.

Before the Warner announcement, we were a lot closer to that possibility becoming a reality (remember Howard Stringer talking about a "stalemate" back in November?), but I have to admit it now doesn't seem likely it will happen. Only time will tell.

and reality sets in......

"They are predicting 8 million SA Blu Ray players sold this year. It doesn't matter if they are discounted, free with a tv or whatever. They are still in households. That is all that matters."

7,000 Blu-Ray players sold the week before Black Friday 2007
20,000 Blu-Ray players sold the week of Black Friday 2007
115,000 Blu-Ray players sold/given away in December 2007
15,000 Blu-Ray players sold/given away in week one of 2008
22,000 Blu-Ray players sold/given away in week two of 2008

not looking like blu-ray is gonna get to 8 million anytime soon. remember 2 million hdtv's being sold for superbowl. too bad for the bda that people have a choice not to get a 1080p hdtv from sharp, samsung, or sharp that comes with a free blu-ray player. they can just as easily pay $200-$500 less to get a 720p hdtv of the same size.

Unless they stop manufacturing DVD's BD will simply be a niche market IMO. Stronger than Laser Disc but never as big as DVD or VHS was. Very unfortunate but the more people I have over to watch HD media the more I hear (what is the big differentce???). I have to walk them close to the screen and practically do a side by side comparison to show the difference. I usually than get "Who wants to watch that close anyway?" Granted I don't have a 100" screen, but neither does the general public.

Here's my problem--and I wonder how general it is. We have kids, and like many parents, we're buying mostly movies the kids can watch. I bought the POTC series on BD, which means we can watch it in the main theater room. Last week, my wife wanted to let the kids watch the movie in another room--no go as I only have 1 BD player. Her attitude is: "You paid $75 for 3 movies we can only watch in one room?" I suspect she'll be even more honked when we start to make road trips in the summer. Her attitude is that the the BDs look good, but that the price and hassle factor isn't worth the value she sees in them. I suspect that she'd feel the same about HD DVD, but at $99, we have a player in every TV-equipped room (now, if only there was something to play on them! :)

Brian

DVD had the same problem 10 years ago. And with DVD you didn't have the option of just buying the VHS version (since it could play in the other rooms with the other players) and still having it play on the new player you just bought for the living room.

Brandon

DVD had the same problem 10 years ago. And with DVD you didn't have the option of just buying the VHS version (since it could play in the other rooms with the other players) and still having it play on the new player you just bought for the living room.

Brandon

Yeah. I guess I didn't have to worry about more than one room back then!

I don't think it will be stronger than laserdisc, about the same percentage wise. Only time will tell.

Same reasons too. Nobody cares and nobody wants to pony up the cash for it.

No idea, this war takes tumbles and turns faster than a 3 dollar hooker.
First I am waiting for June of 08 to verify Warner does indeed stay with their plan of dropping HD-DVD. Once that happens then it is only a matter of time before Paramount and Universal do the same. Right now HD-DVD is being slammed by lower disc sales and the CEs giving away 1.0 profile players with TV's.

Maybe once their stocks of 1.0 players goes away and the price of the 1.1 players hover in the 300-500 range HD-DVD can try to make a come back with 99 dollar A3s. Time is ticking on HD-DVD though, they have to move players at a 3:1 clip in order to close the gap by June IMO.

That said both have to compete with DVD and Digital downloads\VOD services. I just read a few articles this morning how MP3 downloads are destroying CD's market share. CDs shipped in 2004 == 21.5 billion. CD's shipping in 07 ==15 billion. MP3 downloads quintupled their market share over the same period and now account for 30% of all revenue in the United States, 20% worldwide. Which IMO is big considering most downloads are singles for a few bucks vs an entire album for 12-19.

The Mp3 download services were\are a great test bed for delivering HD Movie content to people. Should be interesting to see how it all plays out over the next decade. I really believe we wont see a clear cut format winner this time around. It will be BluRay or HD-DVD(if HD-DVD can pull a miracle), DVD, and some variation of digitaldownload\vod service fighting for markshare.

"They are predicting 8 million SA Blu Ray players sold this year. It doesn't matter if they are discounted, free with a tv or whatever. They are still in households. That is all that matters."

After checking the articles, I would like to apologize, that was 8 million players ( PS3 and Stand alone together).

http://www.videobusiness.com/article/CA6518231.html?nid=2705
http://www.tvpredictions.com/forum/comments.php?y=08&m=01&entry=entry080108-072223

First I am waiting for June of 08 to verify Warner does indeed stay with their plan of dropping HD-DVD.

Do you really think Warner will NOT go Blu Ray exclusive? What are you smoking???

Is there a need for the insult?

Yes, I am waiting for the official date. Until then, anything can happen.

Is there a need for the insult?

Yes, I am waiting for the official date. Until then, anything can happen.

But the anything that is anticipated is that they won't move towards BD alone.

Actually I meant Home Theater enthusiasts and consumers as a whole. Mankind. People with exposable income. Inhabitants of the planet earth that puchase HDM. White People? WTF?

I was just kidding. It's from an old Lone Ranger and Tonto joke. I knew what you meant. My point is not every home theater enthusiast or AVS member thinks the same thing or accepts all these foregone conclusions as facts that are etched in stone. So if you dare to disagree with mainstream thought/opinion, people say "What are you smoking??"