I don't think it's possible to calculate what the top HD DVD title sold in comparison to the top Blu-ray. There are no common entries in the combined top 10 for us to extrapolate from. Blade Runner didn't make the blu-ray list, and Planet Earth and 300 didn't make the HD DVD list.

Week 2 sales volume was 82% of Week 1 sales volume (an 18% drop-off from Week 1 to Week 2)
<snip>Where are you getting sales volume from?
I don't think it's possible to calculate what the top HD DVD title sold in comparison to the top Blu-ray. There are no common entries in the combined top 10 for us to extrapolate from. Blade Runner didn't make the blu-ray list, and Planet Earth and 300 didn't make the HD DVD list.Yes you can. Just subtract the Blu-ray total from the common entries. This week, it was

300 4.75 (a 7.3:1 ratio)
Planet Earth 2.25 (a 14.4:1 ratio)

Where are you getting sales volume from?
Yes you can. Just subtract the Blu-ray total from the common entries. This week, it was

300 4.75
Planet Earth 2.25


That works for 300 and PE, but neither of those are in the HD DVD top 5, so we don't have a way to get HD DVD top 5 as a percentage percentage of Saw IV numbers.

For the record, this will be the first week that the HD DVD price cuts were published. The numbers should start to get more interesting.

For the record, this will be the first week that the HD DVD price cuts were published. The numbers should start to get more interesting.

What price cuts? On players or media?

Not terrible. It looks like 75 is the new 60. It's hard to see things getting better for HD-DVD with zero titles in the Top 10 and few good releases in Q1. It will be interesting to see if we start seeing retailer pressure on HD-DVD. Unless something pretty profound happens, I don't see HD-DVD ever getting into the 40s again with few weeks even in the 30s.

If HD DVD has few good releases in Q1, then Blu-Ray has one. Beowulf did better than 3:10 to Yuma at the Box Office ($53 Million US Gross; $59 Million Worldwide Gross).

Exclusive to HD-DVD in 1Q:
American Gangster (Combo -- as have been all Universal's releases for the last 4 months) -- $130 Million US Gross; $234 Million Worldwide Gross
{Bee Movie ($126M US Gross; $278M Worldwide Gross)}
Beowulf ($82M US Gross; $190M Worldwide Gross)

Blu-Ray exclusive movie (Day-and-Date release -- not catalog releases) in 1Q with $100+ Million US Box Office:

Enchanted ($124M US Gross; $292M Worldwide Gross)

http://www.the-numbers.com/movies/2007/3YUMA.php

http://www.the-numbers.com/movies/2007/AMGST.php

http://www.the-numbers.com/movies/2007/BEEMV.php

http://www.the-numbers.com/movies/2007/BEOWF.php

http://www.the-numbers.com/movies/2007/ENCHA.php

http://www.videobusiness.com/info/CA6478769.html

What price cuts? On players or media?
Sorry. The player price drop.

That works for 300 and PE, but neither of those are in the HD DVD top 5, so we don't have a way to get HD DVD top 5 as a percentage percentage of Saw IV numbers.Yes, that's true, although we could for the previous two weeks.
For the record, this will be the first week that the HD DVD price cuts were published. The numbers should start to get more interesting.No, the price cuts were published on the 14th, i.e. the week ending the 20th. This is the 2nd week since the cuts;

http://www.prnewswire.com/cgi-bin/stories.pl?ACCT=104&STORY=/www/story/01-14-2008/0004735440&EDATE=#

We've already seen the data that shows the price cut "rebound", and it was for the same week of the 1/20 Videoscan #s.

Where are you getting sales volume from?

My calculations are about as clear as possible without practically spelling out what I did. All the data is from the first four issues of Home Media Magazine.

Week 1: 65% Blu-Ray (65% Blu-Ray YTD)

-----------------------------------------------------

Week 2: 85% Blu-Ray (74% Blu-Ray YTD)

-----------------------------------------------------

Week 3: 83% Blu-Ray (76% Blu-Ray YTD)

-----------------------------------------------------

Week 4: 82% Blu-Ray (77% Blu-Ray YTD)

Sorry. The player price drop.

And how is that going to help disc sales, especially when a good majority of the players are being bought by current owners as backup players? Someone needs to start buying media if you want to make a difference.

Yes, that's true, although we could for the previous two weeks.
No, the price cuts were published on the 14th, i.e. the week ending the 20th. This is the 2nd week since the cuts;

http://www.prnewswire.com/cgi-bin/stories.pl?ACCT=104&STORY=/www/story/01-14-2008/0004735440&EDATE=#

I know it's your thing to piss on everything HDDVD, but this is the first week that store ads (you know where the peeps get their gear prices) are at the new prices.

And how is that going to help disc sales, especially when a good majority of the players are being bought by current owners as backup players? Someone needs to start buying media if you want to make a difference.

What happened to the "trojan horse" thing. You guys have pushed that back up player thing enough. There are plenty of new players being sold and there will continue to be. If Toshiba can sell a couple million more players, this is a new ball game.

For the record, this will be the first week that the HD DVD price cuts were published. The numbers should start to get more interesting.

The player price drops were announced on Jan 14...today's Nielsen numbers reflect 2 weeks since the prices were dropped.

What happened to the "trojan horse" thing. You guys have pushed that back up player thing enough. There are plenty of new players being sold and there will continue to be. If Toshiba can sell a couple million more players, this is a new ball game.

I don't know what happened to the "Trojan Horse" thingie. You tell me. But apparently it didn't work.

----------------------------------------------------

Week 2 sales volume was 82% of Week 1 sales volume (an 18% drop-off from Week 1 to Week 2)

[{65+(0.82)(85)}/(100+82)]*100%=
(134.7/182)*100%=74% YTD

Week 2 Blu-Ray: 69.7% of total (Blu-Ray plus HD DVD) week 1 sales volume
Week 2 HD-DVD: 12.3% of total week 1 sales volume

-----------------------------------------------------

Week 3 sales volume was 57% of Week 1 sales volume (a 37% drop-off from Week 2 to Week 3)

[{134.7+(0.52)(83)}/(182+52)]*100%=
(177.86/234)*100%=76% YTD

Week 3 Blu-Ray: 43.2% of total week 1 sales volume
Week 3 HD-DVD: 8.8% of total week 1 sales volume

-----------------------------------------------------

Week 4 sales volume was 47% of Week 1 sales volume (a 10% drop-off from Week 3 to Week 4)

[{177.86+(0.47)(82)}/(234+47)]*100%=
(216.4/281)*100%=77% YTD

Week 4 Blu-Ray: 38.5% of total week 1 sales volume
Week 4 HD-DVD: 8.5% of total week 1 sales volume

So in short, HD media sales have decreased every week this year (not to be unexpected, I guess), and HD DVDs improved number in the ratio has more to do with fewer Blu-ray being sold than an actual increase in HD DVD sales.

I guess there are longitudinal growth advantages to bottoming out. :)

I don't know what happened to the "Trojan Horse" thingie. You tell me. But apparently it didn't work.NO you tell me. It was your battle cry for a year. Maybe it was good enough for BD but not for HDDVD?

I know it's your thing to piss on everything HDDVD, but this is the first week that store ads (you know where the peeps get their gear prices) are at the new prices.


HDDVD the format of a thousand excuses.
:rolleyes:

Wow. Looks like the new ratio will be 4:1 or greater this year. :)

http://www.blogsmithmedia.com/www.engadgethd.com/media/2008/02/nielsen012708.jpg
http://www.blogsmithmedia.com/www.engadgethd.com/media/2008/01/nielsen012008.jpg
http://www.blogsmithmedia.com/www.engadgethd.com/media/2008/01/nielsen011308.jpg

HDDVD the format of a thousand excuses.
:rolleyes:
No excuse made. I simply said that there is a chance for sales to increase after this week. I know it's hard for you guys to believe, but everything is not a video game.

Wow. Looks like the new ratio will be 4:1 or greater this year. :)

http://www.blogsmithmedia.com/www.engadgethd.com/media/2008/02/nielsen012708.jpg
http://www.blogsmithmedia.com/www.engadgethd.com/media/2008/01/nielsen012008.jpg
http://www.blogsmithmedia.com/www.engadgethd.com/media/2008/01/nielsen011308.jpg

With that kind of volume both are doomed. DVD wins again.

For the record, this will be the first week that the HD DVD price cuts were published. The numbers should start to get more interesting.


The numbers haven't been interesting for 58 weeks.

NO you tell me. It was your battle cry for a year. Maybe it was good enough for BD but not for HDDVD?

I haven't a clue what you are on about. I don't have a battle cry, and I have no idea what the "trojan horse" thing is. I do know what Trojans are though. :p All I do know is that each week, when numbers are released, it's always the same old excuses. "Just wait 'til next week" or "Just wait 'til all those new players get counted." Maybe I'm thick but I just don't get it.

I know it's your thing to piss on everything HDDVD, but this is the first week that store ads (you know where the peeps get their gear prices) are at the new prices.No, it isn't. As mentioned by myself and others, the upswing in sales due to price cuts already happened in the week ending 1/19, which was two weeks ago:

http://www.thedigitalbits.com/articles/miscgfx2/hdmarketsdjan082nd3rdweeks.jpg

There were definitely ads that week, online and print.

Please do not respond to people who are coming into this thread to see that it is locked. Everyone knows who those people are. Please ignore and do not engage in what is inevitably a fruitless discussion that ends with the thread being locked. Please.

Sorry, but I happen to find these things fascinating. Perhaps you should find a forum with a subject you are interested in and a thread that is about it.

Actually I enjoy every thread that you don't push your anti blu ray agenda in. Those threads that do not involve your "DVD wins" analogy every 3 seconds are usually a lot of fun and pretty informative.

If HD DVD has few good releases in Q1, then Blu-Ray has one. Beowulf did better than 3:10 to Yuma at the Box Office ($53 Million US Gross; $59 Million Worldwide Gross).

Exclusive to HD-DVD in 1Q:
American Gangster (Combo -- as have been all Universal's releases for the last 4 months) -- $130 Million US Gross; $234 Million Worldwide Gross
{Bee Movie ($126M US Gross; $278M Worldwide Gross)}
Beowulf ($82M US Gross; $190M Worldwide Gross)

Blu-Ray exclusive movie (Day-and-Date release -- not catalog releases) in 1Q with $100+ Million US Box Office:

Enchanted ($124M US Gross; $292M Worldwide Gross)

http://www.the-numbers.com/movies/2007/3YUMA.php

http://www.the-numbers.com/movies/2007/AMGST.php

http://www.the-numbers.com/movies/2007/BEEMV.php

http://www.the-numbers.com/movies/2007/BEOWF.php

http://www.the-numbers.com/movies/2007/ENCHA.php

http://www.videobusiness.com/info/CA6478769.html

My point was not to make a comparison with Blu-Ray -- it was only to note that the number of high-quality HD-DVD releases is low, which is a problem when HD-DVD is facing 4-1 or 5-1 numbers on a weekly basis. Stong Blu-Ray titles will only push those numbers further up, whereas HD-DVD has to make huge strides to even get to respectable, as I don't think a quarter of 75-25 or 80-20 weekly numbers would bode well for HD-DVD surviving to see 2009.

I haven't a clue what you are on about. I don't have a battle cry, and I have no idea what the "trojan horse" thing is. I do know what Trojans are though. :p All I do know is that each week, when numbers are released, it's always the same old excuses. "Just wait 'til next week" or "Just wait 'til all those new players get counted." Maybe I'm thick but I just don't get it.
With all the HD DVD supporters rallying behind the new player prices over the last several weeks, I would of expected HD DVD discs to be flying off the shelves but that doesn't seem to be happening because it appears the same amount or possibly more Blu-ray players are being sold and those people are buying discs.
Yes, Toshiba has 3 HD DVD players in the Amazon Top 25 DVD sellers but there are 4 Blu-ray players in that list as well and they seem to be climbing up the list.
I won't even get into the amount of Blu-ray titles that are in the Amazon Top 100 DVD's compared to the single HD DVD title in the same list. :)

I guess the whole 1080i upconverting marketting is backfiring as these new players are going to homes to do just that, upconvert their SD DVD collection whereas new Blu-ray player owners are buying Blu-ray discs and they get 1080P upconversion, which the consumer believes is better even though in THEORY they may be equal.

Okay Slim, please explain to me what this trojan horse thing is all about. I haven't a clue what you are on about.

I guess we're really just asking for a thread lock again.

And any time you feel the pain, hey, Jude, refrain
Don't carry the world upon your shoulders

We all know that these numbers are based strongly on releases, we won't see a real upswing on the HD DVD side until they start making strong releases again. No matter how many players are sold for any price.

PS. When 25% is great news for your opponent, you should probably just be focused on your future, because they are no longer challenging you to perform better.

(in other words, ignore it, it is the past)

Please take the format battle posts to another thread.

Can we just ban Slim from the Nielsen threads already? He does nothing but attack the numbers now.

That is exactly what needs to happen.

It's seems to me several here WANT these threads to get locked. Disappointing.

It will be interesting to see if the Super Bowl ad and CE store ads showing the lower HD DVD hardware pricing do make an impact on next week's numbers. My guess is not too much.

It's seems to me several here WANT these threads to get locked. Disappointing.

It will be interesting to see if the Super Bowl ad and CE store ads showing the lower HD DVD hardware pricing do make an impact on next week's numbers. My guess is not too much.

The lower prices on the Wal Mart fire sale A2's didn't change the sales data one bit. So from past experience, I wouldn't hold my breath.

It's seems to me several here WANT these threads to get locked. Disappointing.

It will be interesting to see if the Super Bowl ad and CE store ads showing the lower HD DVD hardware pricing do make an impact on next week's numbers. My guess is not too much.

considering how pathetic high-definition video (hardware and software) sales are, it would not take much to make an impact. there is a pretty large audience watching the super bowl for the commercials, especially since new england has the potential to make the giants look like midgets.

The lower prices on the Wal Mart fire sale A2's didn't change the sales data one bit. So from past experience, I wouldn't hold my breath.

wal*mart and amazon aren't included in the npd figures. best buy and circuit city price-matching wal*mart would have showed up the npd hardware figures for that week.

It's seems to me several here WANT these threads to get locked. Disappointing.

It will be interesting to see if the Super Bowl ad and CE store ads showing the lower HD DVD hardware pricing do make an impact on next week's numbers. My guess is not too much.

I'm not confident in the effectiveness of any Super Bowl ad for HDM. After all, the Super Bowl is likely the largest HDTV selling event all year, or at least it was in years past. The opportunity to move players outside of the holidays, is when a TV is sold.

Marketing HDM during the Super Bowl is akin to advertising holiday wrapping paper in January IMO.

I think the Super Bowl ad will have minimial effectiveness, though I think we'll never know because it will be impossible to assess it apart from the deep Toshiba price-cuts (and the Warner announcement, and the media coverage, and the Blu-Ray bundling with HDTVs, etc.).

I'm not confident in the effectiveness of any Super Bowl ad for HDM. After all, the Super Bowl is likely the largest HDTV selling event all year, or at least it was in years past. The opportunity to move players outside of the holidays, is when a TV is sold.

Marketing HDM during the Super Bowl is akin to advertising holiday wrapping paper in January IMO.

10 million dvd players sold from january to july of 2007.

http://www.thedigitalbits.com/articles/cemadvdsales.html

your wrapping paper analogy is poor in my opinion.

time

you guys never stop

suspension issued

a member asked to leave the Prediction threads: all of them

reopened: please be kind

reopened: please be kind

Thanks Mark, seems like old times eh?

Anyway, on to next week, see you guys there!

wal*mart and amazon aren't included in the npd figures. best buy and circuit city price-matching wal*mart would have showed up the npd hardware figures for that week.

Toshiba should have access to Walmart's sales figures, right?

all we saw was a slide from CES showing a 49% marketshare for HD DVD and 48% for blu ray (as of Dec 22, 2007)...

Toshiba should have access to sales data of their vendors, right???

They issued a release in October stating they had a 64% market share, so they lost 15% in under 3 months...

Please do not respond to people who are coming into this thread to see that it is locked. Everyone knows who those people are. Please ignore and do not engage in what is inevitably a fruitless discussion that ends with the thread being locked. Please.

^^^
good advice

if you respond to or quote a problematic post, you are making things worse

wal*mart and amazon aren't included in the npd figures. best buy and circuit city price-matching wal*mart would have showed up the npd hardware figures for that week.

I believe he was referring to the fire sale having an impact on the software sales figures.

Brandon

Wow. Looks like the new ratio will be 4:1 or greater this year. :)

http://www.blogsmithmedia.com/www.engadgethd.com/media/2008/02/nielsen012708.jpg
http://www.blogsmithmedia.com/www.engadgethd.com/media/2008/01/nielsen012008.jpg
http://www.blogsmithmedia.com/www.engadgethd.com/media/2008/01/nielsen011308.jpg

Wow. The graphics really drive the point home. And I'm not sure we put enough emphasis on the fact that there are zero HD-DVDs in the Top 10. That means that the 10th selling Blu-Ray sold more than the best-selling HD-DVD. I know that's obvious, but that means none of Planet Earth, Transformers, Bourne, etc. sold better than Superbad.

10 million dvd players sold from january to july of 2007.

your wrapping paper analogy is poor in my opinion.

Since we don't have Aug-Dec numbers, that doesn't tell us much. Looking at 2006, we can see that only 35% of the year's sales were in the seven months from January to July, with January (3.5%) and February (3.9%) having the lowest sales of the year. Half the year's sales came from Sept. to Dec., with over three times as many sold in December as January.

Toshiba should have access to Walmart's sales figures, right?

all we saw was a slide from CES showing a 49% marketshare for HD DVD and 48% for blu ray (as of Dec 22, 2007)...

Toshiba should have access to sales data of their vendors, right???

They issued a release in October stating they had a 64% market share, so they lost 15% in under 3 months...

toshiba would know how many hd dvd players they sold wal*mart which doesn't tell them that much. i doubt wal*mart is telling toshiba how many hd dvd players they are selling, and i definitely do not think wal*mart is telling toshiba how many blu-ray players they are selling.

toshiba can let someone else gather the data. that's what npd (hardware sales) and nielsen videoscan (software sales) are: professional services. for toshiba to gather this type of information for themselves, it would cost them a lot of time and money that could best be spent elsewhere imho.

10 million dvd players sold from january to july of 2007.

http://www.thedigitalbits.com/articles/cemadvdsales.html

your wrapping paper analogy is poor in my opinion.

I'll admit that my analogy is isn't exact. However, I don't think DVD player sales have much relevance to HDM sales, particularly the relationship of stand alone player sales and HDTV sales.

Since we don't have Aug-Dec numbers, that doesn't tell us much. Looking at 2006, we can see that only 35% of the year's sales were in the seven months from January to July, with January (3.5%) and February (3.9%) having the lowest sales of the year. Half the year's sales came from Sept. to Dec., with over three times as many sold in December as January.

i was responding to t-ray's comments, but you better illustrated the point i was trying to make. while a good amount of video disc players are sold leading up to the SuperBowl, people buy them throughout the year. people don't generally go in to buy a hdtv and get a video disc player at the same time.

best buy does give you $100 off a high-definition video disc player with a $999+ hdtv purchase, so i wouldn't be surprised to see people add a $50 hd-a3 with 300 and bourne identity hd dvd's in the box to their hdtv purchase in the future. when you are buying a hdtv at best buy now, it almost makes no sense to get a standard dvd player at the same time.

of course this argument is specific to best buy, and best buy would need to be the one to push the hd-a3's, which i doubt they are since they would be losing money on every hd-a3 they bundled. if toshiba incentivized them (best buy) to push the hd-a3 (toshiba might give best buy $50-$100 for each hd-a3 bundled), then best buy managers might tell their sales representatives to make sure people were aware of the $100 instant rebate on hd dvd players with a $1K+ HDTV purchase.

an hd-a3 for $50 as part of a $1K+ hdtv bundle is a no brainer in my honest opinion. and if best buy was offering one or two free movies with hd dvd players the week in question, it would be a steal.

I'll admit that my analogy is isn't exact. However, I don't think DVD player sales have much relevance to HDM sales, particularly the relationship of stand alone player sales and HDTV sales.

toshiba is going after the dvd player market now. in the words of al gore in his description of future social security programs, toshiba is trying to sell you dvd plus (not much more expensive than standard dvd but you are getting high-definition video -- not just upscaled video -- and you are getting a couple of free hd dvd's included with the hd dvd player and five more by mail, neither of which you get with a standard dvd player). whether it will work or not remains to be seen. eventually there will be more high-definition video disc players on the market than ps3's, so high-definition video disc players are eventually going to have to compete with standard definition DVD players.

It's pretty devastating stuff for HD-DVD -- 3 weeks in a row now. If HD-DVD can't somehow get more support from studios to change consumer perception, then it doesn't matter how many players they sell. It's been 4 weeks since the WB bombshell, Paramount and Universal have done nothing to help rehabilitate HD-DVD. I don't know how anyone on the HD-DVD side can possibly come into a thread like this, see the numbers, and then start an argument. All the arguing in the world won't change the data and the bleak realities of a developing trend. I hope like heck HD-DVD can make a turnaround, but Toshiba can't do it alone.

toshiba is going after the dvd player market now. in the words of al gore in his description of future social security programs, toshiba is trying to sell you dvd plus (not much more expensive than standard dvd but you are getting high-definition video -- not just upscaled video -- and you are getting a couple of free hd dvd's included with the hd dvd player and five more by mail, neither of which you get with a standard dvd player). whether it will work or not remains to be seen. eventually there will be more high-definition video disc players on the market than ps3's, so high-definition video disc players are eventually going to have to compete with standard definition DVD players.

But price of upconverting DVD players and HDM discs is what Toshiba has to complete with.

1. The HD-A3 is a 1080i upconverting player that can be had for around $120-149.
A name brand 1080P upconverting player can be had for around $50-80.

2. After someone buys an HD DVD player, they need to decide if buying an HD DVD disc at $24-35 for Day and Date releases is worth it or is buying the same disc on SD DVD at $13-15 and upconverting good enough.

3. People keep pushing the FREE discs as a good deal but most of these FREE discs are catalog discs the majority of people already own.
It's not like they are allowing you to pick 5-7 HD DVD discs of your choice.
They get to pick 5 from a list if 15 and 2 are already selected for you.

4. After buying the player, they need to invest in an HDMI or Component cable. These are priced between $29-100. (Don't say they can get one at monoprice for $10 because who in their right mind is going to buy a player and wait a week or 2 for a cable.)

If there are readers out there who like to read through the home media magazine for more than just the numbers, check out the write-in response on page 12 (http://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/questex/hom020308/index.php) from a "Bob Johnson" who owns a chain of "Video World" stores in the Minnesota area. It gives a nice perspective from a retail point of view, with data to support his position.

Of course, not much new is being said there, and we have to take him at his word, but it's interesting to read nonetheless.

Brandon

If there are readers out there who like to read through the home media magazine for more than just the numbers, check out the write-in response on page 12 (http://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/questex/hom020308/index.php) from a "Bob Johnson" who owns a chain of "Video World" stores in the Minnesota area. It gives a nice perspective from a retail point of view, with data to support his position.

Of course, not much new is being said there, and we have to take him at his word, but it's interesting to read nonetheless.

Brandon
This doesn't belong here. Nothing to do with Nielson.

time to close now

Thanks to all the members who participate

http://www.avsforum.com/avs-vb/showthread.php?p=13001323#post13001323