Welcome to the second week of the second contest. By participating in this thread you are agreeing to the following:

1- Nielsen/VideoScan gets a statistically significant amount of sales data. It does not get all data, but the amount it gets is far more than sufficient to be useful and significant.
2- If the studios had aligned differently, things would be different. See, we all agree on that now. There is no need to discuss it ad nauseam.
3- If not for BOGOs and other sales, things would be different.
4- People Magazine should be ashamed for continually leaving Winn off the list of the Sexiest Men Alive.
5- Studios have made decisions based on factors confessed to and not confessed to. What those factors are is irrelevant to any possible on topic discussion in this thread.
6- People make predictions based on a wide variety of assumptions and for different reasons. Do not make fun of the person make the pick.
7- Saying the real contest is now Blu-ray vs. DVD and then posting the ratio for that is not witty or clever. Oh, it might have been when it was done the first time. That is in the past. All it does now is make the poster look petty.
8- We don't need format war posts in here. However, saying things like "This was a good week for Blu." or "I think this may be a trend where HD DVD gains back some market share." is not a format war post if you back it up and are using it as a basis for your prediction. Saying "HD-DUD is so dead!" or "Poo-ray is teh suxxor!" is a format war post, and, quite frankly, is very unimaginative.
9- This list is likely to get longer as time goes by.

If you are unable to follow these rules, you will get a warning. If you break them again, I will put you on ignore. Actually, you will likely be asked by the mods to not post in the thread again.

With that out of the way, on to the fun stuff.

January is famed for the number of new releases. Specifically, the lack of them. Once again, we face a small lineup, though both sides are represented with two exclusives this week with no neutrals in sight.

On Blu-ray, Lionsgate hopes to continue their sales momentum with the release of Saw IV. They will face stiff competition with Disney's release of Dwayne "Don't Call Me The Rock" Johnson's The Game Plan.

HD DVD is back this week with a Method Man concert and Channels, an independent film released direct to HD DVD.

IMPORTANT NOTE: Please make your prediction with BD:HD even if you are going to predict HD DVD winning the week. Also, you are predicting the BD numbers, the HD DVD is implied. If I am confused, I will ask you for clarification if there is time before the deadline. Otherwise, you are stuck with how I read it.

The prediction period will close at 5 P.M Eastern time. That is 2 P.M. for those of you in Pacific time. This will get us ahead of the leaks. The numbers on February 1st will cover sales from January 21st-January 27th, inclusive.

(I decided to push the ending time back 1 hour.)

Again, nothing but predictions and the odd, friendly comment on other people's predictions.

Nielsen contest entries for 02/01/2008

NAME BD:HD
toon12 92:8
Robert SawyerIII 91:9
eskimo2176 91:9
thebland 90:10
badboi 89:11
shamus 89:11
dobyblue 89:11
bryansj 89:11
torse_jack 88:12
desmond212 88:12
lvbeethoven 88:12
Earz 88:12
theforce8686 88:12
splinters 88:12
ehomer 88:12
kampsy 88:12
fitprod 87:13
manikin 87:13
Icemage 87:13
nick_weasel 87:13
Aresca 87:13
GP_23 87:13
JamesDFarrow 87:13
Newbie 87:13
chirpie 87:13
TheSimplePanda 87:13
whoelse 87:13
spacejamz 87:13
klac 86:14
nickoakdl 86:14
swedcrip 86:14
DarkAdept 86:14
MASrules 86:14
Will d s 86:14
user friendly 86:14
MrPorterhouse 86:14
jkcheng122 86:14
Joon TV 86:14
trondmm 86:14
ifmracin 85:15
frizshizzle 85:15
darinp2 85:15
Jblacklow 85:15
TPigeon2006 85:15
Assayer 85:15
lomax 85:15
patrick99 85:15
Random Digital 85:15
Kemet 85:15
Lbarber 85:15
jkwest 85:15
Jiffylush 85:15
Monty22001 85:15
soremekun 84:16
dstewart 84:16
Richard Paul 84:16
Steve Schauer 84:16
Greg Kettell 84:16
Woodshed 84:16
UxiSXRD 84:16
carljanderson 84:16
ottscay 84:16
Jackietreehorn 84:16
John Ryder 84:16
brianmonkey 83:17
merv43 83:17
dc_pilgrim 83:17
JAC6 83:17
phansson 83:17
p0tempkin 82:18
donricouga 82:18
RDarrylR 82:18
basano 82:18
eightninesuited 82:18
iamitman 82:18
merlintl 81:19
bolaar 81:19
William 81:19
fredwi 80:20
ADGrant 80:20
bato 80:20
theflux 80:20
Loc13 80:20
bigdaveman 79:21
caesartheboxer 79:21
ICBM99 79:21
allargon 79:21
diatom 78:22
Leviathan25 78:22
datobin1 78:22
bplewis 78:22
anttimonty 77:23
aaronwt 75:25
online 75:25
ts.enigma 75:25
edgebsl 74:26
Jallopy 72:28
Shmack 70:30
norliss 70:30


HD DVD
Channels (Vanguard Cinema)
Method Man: Live from the Sunset Strip (Music Distribution)

Blu-ray
The Game Plan (Disney)
Saw IV (Lionsgate)

Nielsen contest results for 01/25/2008

Correct Nielsen/VideoScan ratio : 83:17

NAME Guess Attempts Avg. Score
anttimonty 83:17 1 0.00
Myxamatosis 83:17 1 0.00
ottscay 83:17 1 0.00
spacejamz 83:17 1 0.00
torsteinvh 83:17 1 0.00
tsp533 83:17 1 0.00
cakefoo 82:18 1 1.00
Calmus 82:18 1 1.00
carljanderson 82:18 1 1.00
dobyblue 82:18 1 1.00
ehomer 82:18 1 1.00
galperi1 84:16 1 1.00
gand41f 82:18 1 1.00
h0mi 82:18 1 1.00
iamitman 84:16 1 1.00
Jiffylush 82:18 1 1.00
jkwest 84:16 1 1.00
jmcq 82:18 1 1.00
LonePirate 82:18 1 1.00
MrPorterhouse 84:16 1 1.00
nyg 84:16 1 1.00
rlsmith 82:18 1 1.00
SGRSBSKIER 82:18 1 1.00
Sketcha 82:18 1 1.00
Slirp 84:16 1 1.00
UxiSXRD 84:16 1 1.00
William 82:18 1 1.00
Winn 82:18 1 1.00
Baccusboy 81:19 1 2.00
bigcheda 81:19 1 2.00
Fran O'Hern 81:19 1 2.00
Kemet 81:19 1 2.00
Lbarber 81:19 1 2.00
nelkirn 81:19 1 2.00
phansson 81:19 1 2.00
Random Digital 85:15 1 2.00
Rob Tomlin 81:19 1 2.00
shamus 81:19 1 2.00
splinters 85:15 1 2.00
Staying Salty 81:19 1 2.00
user friendly 81:19 1 2.00
whiskersland 81:19 1 2.00
Woodshed 81:19 1 2.00
Assayer 80:20 1 3.00
dpags 80:20 1 3.00
Earz 86:14 1 3.00
eightninesuited 86:14 1 3.00
extra_hc 80:20 1 3.00
Greg Kettell 80:20 1 3.00
Jagt Mirage 80:20 1 3.00
kcgr 80:20 1 3.00
lomax 80:20 1 3.00
Mel2 86:14 1 3.00
Neo1965 80:20 1 3.00
patrick99 80:20 1 3.00
theflux 80:20 1 3.00
theforce8686 80:20 1 3.00
TheSimplePanda 80:20 1 3.00
whoelse 80:20 1 3.00
Will d s 86:14 1 3.00
allargon 79:21 1 4.00
andyparhelia 79:21 1 4.00
Aresca 87:13 1 4.00
bato 79:21 1 4.00
Bill0711 79:21 1 4.00
bolaar 79:21 1 4.00
Carbon_Le 87:13 1 4.00
chirpie 79:21 1 4.00
conquerermtm 87:13 1 4.00
DarkAdept 79:21 1 4.00
dumbswede 87:13 1 4.00
GP_23 87:13 1 4.00
HuntzHD 79:21 1 4.00
JAC6 87:13 1 4.00
JamesDFarrow 87:13 1 4.00
Jocky Wilson 87:13 1 4.00
MarekM 87:13 1 4.00
MASrules 79:21 1 4.00
Newbie 87:13 1 4.00
rcase13 79:21 1 4.00
rcutlass70 87:13 1 4.00
Seth Gecko 79:21 1 4.00
TheTwelve 87:13 1 4.00
TPigeon2006 79:21 1 4.00
Vyrance 79:21 1 4.00
badboi 88:12 1 5.00
basano 78:22 1 5.00
bluescreen 78:22 1 5.00
Bob Meridian 78:22 1 5.00
ChristopherB 88:12 1 5.00
darinp2 78:22 1 5.00
desmond212 88:12 1 5.00
dmcfan 78:22 1 5.00
frizshizzle 88:12 1 5.00
Icemage 78:22 1 5.00
Jblacklow 78:22 1 5.00
jling84 78:22 1 5.00
Ktak 88:12 1 5.00
lvbeethoven 88:12 1 5.00
manikin 88:12 1 5.00
merlintl 78:22 1 5.00
nick_weasel 78:22 1 5.00
nickoakdl 78:22 1 5.00
olarmy96 78:22 1 5.00
PaulGo 88:12 1 5.00
Richard Paul 78:22 1 5.00
Steve Schauer 78:22 1 5.00
swedcrip 78:22 1 5.00
tiger roach 78:22 1 5.00
tomsteeper 78:22 1 5.00
willyd 78:22 1 5.00
wisedesi 88:12 1 5.00
Brian Hampton 89:11 1 6.00
dc_pilgrim 77:23 1 6.00
dstewart 77:23 1 6.00
elikhom 77:23 1 6.00
Gordon Shumway 89:11 1 6.00
habscolts 77:23 1 6.00
klac 89:11 1 6.00
merv43 89:11 1 6.00
Rich Peterson 77:23 1 6.00
TheDaddyJDS 89:11 1 6.00
yampan 77:23 1 6.00
ADGrant 90:10 1 7.00
AndyHDTV 90:10 1 7.00
bplewis 76:24 1 7.00
donricouga 76:24 1 7.00
edgebsl 90:10 1 7.00
eskimo2176 76:24 1 7.00
RDarrylR 76:24 1 7.00
soremekun 76:24 1 7.00
thebland 90:10 1 7.00
thomopolis 90:10 1 7.00
30XS955 User 75:25 1 8.00
brianmonkey 75:25 1 8.00
caesartheboxer 75:25 1 8.00
fitprod 75:25 1 8.00
ICBM99 75:25 1 8.00
online 75:25 1 8.00
p0tempkin 91:9 1 8.00
Robert SawyerIII 91:9 1 8.00
torse_jack 91:9 1 8.00
ts.enigma 75:25 1 8.00
Dreessen 74:26 1 9.00
ifmracin 74:26 1 9.00
Merrick97 74:26 1 9.00
ssjLancer 74:26 1 9.00
bigdaveman 73:27 1 10.00
datobin1 73:27 1 10.00
Entertainment 72:28 1 11.00
Leviathan25 72:28 1 11.00
RROSEN 72:28 1 11.00
BritInVA 71:29 1 12.00
aaronwt 70:30 1 13.00
fredwi 70:30 1 13.00
MRMOTA 70:30 1 13.00
diatom 69:31 1 14.00
GmanAVS 69:31 1 14.00
Jallopy 68:32 1 15.00
Mr. Good Cat 100:0 1 17.00
Hockeytown Fan 60:40 1 23.00
laric 60:40 1 23.00
Shmack 60:40 1 23.00
Super XP 60:40 1 23.00


Perfect Picks

Final week
anttimonty
Myxamatosis
ottscay
spacejamz
torsteinvh
tsp533

--------------

Overall perfect picks

anttimonty [ 1 ] (01/25/08)
Myxamatosis [ 1 ] (01/25/08)
ottscay [ 1 ] (01/25/08)
spacejamz [ 1 ] (01/25/08)
torsteinvh [ 1 ] (01/25/08)
tsp533 [ 1 ] (01/25/08)


Weekly Stats

Week Picks Perfect High Actual Low Mean Median Mode
1 164 6 91* (8) [48] 83 60 (23) [110] 80.55 80.5 78

*Guess of 100% ignored as they are technically impossible due to truncating.

Ok, here is how this round is going to work. The game might end at any time. If we get up to 10 weeks, anyone who made 8 guesses will be prize eligible. The contest will automatically end at 15 weeks. Anyone with 12 guesses at that point is prize eligible. Anyone who made a full 15 guesses will have their worst guess removed for the final scoring for prizes.

Once again I am putting up a $10 gift certificate. Someone jokingly suggested donating a player as a prize and I am going to run with that idea. I will be accepting prize donations. If anyone has two copies of a movie and want to donate one or got a movie in a giveaway they just do not want, here is a way to get rid of them instead of trying to get a buck for them on eBay.

85:15

82:18

75:25

81:19

85:15

These kids today and their torture porn... ;)

Not sure if it matters, but according to Rottentomatoes:

The Game Plan is 27% and did 90 million in the box office.

Saw IV is 20% and did 63 million in the box office.

86:14

83/17

85:15

82:18

85:15

--Darin

87:13

84:16

88:12

85:15

Semi-solid day and dates for Blu-ray. Much less rebound last week than I expected. First reports of retailers shifting shelf space in the period covered this week.

87 : 13

86:14

78:22

87:13

81:19

87:13

fitprod

88:12 blu

89:11

72:28

I'm going to split it right down the middle. 84:16

79:21

83 : 17

89:11

85:15

These kids today and their torture porn... ;)

Not sure if it matters, but according to Rottentomatoes:

The Game Plan is 27% and did 90 million in the box office.

Saw IV is 20% and did 63 million in the box office.

are game plan and saw considered for the week in question? or we looking at releases on jan29th like timberlake concert, monty python, and the invasion?

i'll guess 86:14, not seeing anything significant from hd dvd.

88:12

Better day and dates than last week, but not as good as 3:10. Fewer HD DVD returns, but new BD players make up part of the difference:

84:16

88 : 12

80:20

Third time's a charm?

83:17

80:20, all those cheap players have to sell some HD-DVDs

all those cheap players have to sell some HD-DVDs

Only if the players sell at that price.

84: 16

79:21

Whats with the lack of new releases? Time to hit Amazon to see whats on sale.

86:14

Blu-Ray 87:13

James :)

84/16

86:14

85:15

I'm going to probably keep playing this number, unless some significant news comes up.

88:12

-Splints

Blu-ray 84:16 HDDVD

bd80/20hd

81:19

The Game Plan is 27% and did 90 million in the box office.

Saw IV is 20% and did 63 million in the box office.

Hope to never see either one of those movies.

are game plan and saw considered for the week in question? or we looking at releases on jan29th like timberlake concert, monty python, and the invasion?

It's the former. Timberlake and crew will be the week after.

I want to go with 76:24 for a third guess in a row, but that's feeling a bit low at this point. Reality is people love the Saw franchise, and perception is quickly turning into reality.

I'm going with 76:24 :p

I'll abandon that guess after this week :)

Brandon

80 : 20

84:16

78:22 Got burned last week, hopefully better this.

Due to the price cuts on HD DVD players, I will go with,

83:17

79:21

86:14

85:15

84:16

86/14

85:15

88 : 12

The window for guesses seem to be falling between 78 to 90. Wasn't it more interesting before the WB announcement?

84:16

87:13

88 : 12

The window for guesses seem to be falling between 78 to 90. Wasn't it more interesting before the WB announcement?

I have great respect for the first person to have a >90 guess and get a perfect score for that week.

Brandon

82:18

These kids today and their torture porn... ;)

And on that basis:

84:16

I won't be buying it but it fits the demo.... :)

87:13
I'll keep going with this until I'm right.

87:13

88:12

well i keep under estimating Blu so

i will go with 85:15

i am sure there will be a HD-DVD bounce someday :)

75:25

85:15

91:9

85:15

I have great respect for the first person to have a >90 guess and get a perfect score for that week.

Brandon

I think somebody said it best in last week's Neilsen thread that someone guessing 100:0 has a better ratio than 60:40. That post really startled me in terms of where we have come in the format war in just a month.

84:16

82:18

85:15

Hmm. Yet another week without any HD DVD-releases of substance, and this week Blu-ray has two not-exactly-big-but-definately-not-small titles. That makes me think Blu-ray will gain yet another couple of points this week.

86:14

85:15

Finally hit the Bull's eye :)

77:23

84:16

90:10

79:21

I have underestimated Blu-ray in the last couple of week.

I think Blu has had better press this week and the Blu-ray BOGOF sales are back on.


Updated Prediction: 85:15

Prediction: 87:13

the first number in your pick is considered your blu ray pick....any reason you have the colors reversed??

I have underestimated Blu-ray in the last couple of week.

I think Blu has had better press this week and the Blu-ray BOGOF sales are back on.


Prediction: 87:13

Blu-ray BOGO? Where?

Blu-ray BOGO? Where?

+1

Marek

Somone told me there were, but they were lieing :mad:

88:12

79 entries

whoelse,

there is a 2 day B2GO at BestBUY

http://www.bestbuy.com/site//olspage.jsp?id=pcmcat142900050003&type=category

hurry its the last day i think :)

83:17

75:25

With the Super Bowl coming along with an influx of TV purchases, I'll guess another bump for Blu as people finally jump into the HD race.

87 : 13

86:14

Volumes still a little low, but with a comedy being the best selling title last week we're clearly starting to see broad enough adoption that wild swings aren't likely at this stage. The "bleeding edge adopter" phase may be coming to an end. I see a slow shift (slowed even further by the simple fact that shifting the ratio "one percentage point" is much harder at the extreme ends of the spectrum.)

I dont remember if I posted already. but if not 88:12

89:11

I wish to change my prediction to 91:9

88-12 Blu

80:20

I'll go with 70:30. :)

(Because this week was next week last week, and next week had to roll around some week. ;))

So are we living in the future? Or is your future my past? Or is my future your present?

Wait a minute, where did you find a time machine?

70:30

That's polar opposites for titles,

87:13

But if this trouncing continues for a few more weeks i'm going to stop my picks as the fun is lacking as the challenge is dwindling to see if HD DVD can get a win.

87:13

92:8
a walk on the wild side!

78:22

89-11

82:18

86:14

I'm gonna go with 82:18.

85:15

>>>>>>>>>>>>>Attention Posters!!!!!!<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<

I think we need to stop the revising phase. Winn is doing a lot of work here and it's unfair to ask him to locate posts of people revising their numbers on a continuing basis.

IMO, check the 1st post. If your name shows up with a prediction ratio - you are locked in for that week. Please don't change it again. Many people have been guilty of this (myself included).

86:14

>>>>>>>>>>>>>Attention Posters!!!!!!<<<<<<<<<<<<<<<

I think we need to stop the revising phase. Winn is doing a lot of work here and it's unfair to ask him to locate posts of people revising their numbers on a continuing basis.

IMO, check the 1st post. If your name shows up with a prediction ratio - you are locked in for that week. Please don't change it again. Many people have been guilty of this (myself included).

I appreciate the thought, but changing guesses is easy for me thanks to the database. I always enter data with it sorted by name.

Many people, especially after they miss a week, will throw in an early guess right away to make sure they do not miss another.

99 entries so far.

84:16

69:31

So are we living in the future? Or is your future my past? Or is my future your present?

Wait a minute, where did you find a time machine?

All moments in time co-exist in my mind. I just can't see all of them presently.

As for my time machine, I'm currently traveling in it. It just happens to be set to move forward in time at the precise speed that "actual" time is progressing.

:)

88:12

http://ecx.images-amazon.com/images/I/412FVYAJJGL._AA240_.jpg :http://ecx.images-amazon.com/images/I/51hoNW5ynpL._AA240_.jpg

(84:16)

87:13

84:16

86:14

81:19

I'm going with 89:11 BR.

I really wanted to break the 90 mark, but felt that there has to be SOME new software purchases going with the cheap A3's and A35's to offset a better Day/Date combo than the previous week.

89:11

I still cant believe this; I did not think I'd see these kind of predictions until towards the end of the year. :)

87:13

83:17

87:13

89:11

I still cant believe this; I did not think I'd see these kind of predictions until towards the end of the year. :)

Remember, it's more accurate to predict 100:0 than 60:40. :eek:

80:20. God I hope I get one right. Or if Im wrong, its because it was too low!!

82:18

79:21.

81:19

80:20

84:16

83:17

wow...the lowest guess so far blu ray is 70 :eek:

86:14

88:12.

87:13

enjoy
gandalf :o

84:16

80 : 20

82:18

84:16

It's 66:34
http://www.dvdtown.com/news/hd-dvd-gain-in-market-share-after-huge-drop/5172

It's 66:34
http://www.dvdtown.com/news/hd-dvd-gain-in-market-share-after-huge-drop/5172


Thats player sales.....

It's 66:34
http://www.dvdtown.com/news/hd-dvd-gain-in-market-share-after-huge-drop/5172

leaving out HDP sales from Amazon are big vs. PS3.
Because you can actually tell the intent of the buyers for the HDP consumer.

leaving out HDP sales from Amazon are big vs. PS3.
Because you can actually tell the intent of the buyers for the HDP consumer.

DVDTown is incorrect. NPD includes Amazon.

78-22

81:19

80:20

80:20

85/15

84:16

78:24

78:24

I may not have that many fingers, but...

;)

HD DVD has gained ground back for Hardware sales for 3rd week of Jan 2008.
Something like 60:40

HD DVD has gained ground back for Hardware sales for 3rd week of Jan 2008.
Something like 60:40
Just FYI, the Nielsen VideoScan totals for this week's contest are for Week 4. The VideoScan results from Week 3 are already in. Week 3 showed a 2% shift from 85:15 to 83:17, despite the "improving" 66/34 BD to HD hardware split that week.

If you're looking for rebound on the HD DVD numbers explicitly because of the pricing difference, you may want to reconsider, as that effect was included in last week's totals.

Just FYI, the Nielsen VideoScan totals for this week's contest are for Week 4. The VideoScan results from Week 3 are already in. Week 3 showed a 2% shift from 85:15 to 83:17, despite the "improving" 66/34 BD to HD hardware split that week.

If you're looking for rebound on the HD DVD numbers explicitly because of the pricing difference, you may want to reconsider, as that effect was included in last week's totals.

Not to mention that we have a few more weeks before a big exclusive HD DVD release.

I got an a3 and a few movies just in the last few weeks. Today I picked up one of those BOGO offers at Best Buy. I'm just going to put myself in the position to be able to play either one. Maybe just a dual PC drive until some decent/2.0 players come out. I've got a HDMI cable I just run accross the carpet whenever I want to hook up the PC to the computer on occasion.

85:15

I got an a3 and a few movies just in the last few weeks. Today I picked up one of those BOGO offers at Best Buy. I'm just going to put myself in the position to be able to play either one. Maybe just a dual PC drive until some decent/2.0 players come out. I've got a HDMI cable I just run accross the carpet whenever I want to hook up the PC to the computer on occasion.

There aren't any "decent" 2.0 players, but there is a "great" 2.0 player from Sony for $399.

Here we go! 86:14 BD for me.

84:16

Many balls are up in the air.

-- Content is weak for both formats but stronger for Blu-ray. There is no accounting for taste and the current HDM demographic is not made up of film scholars.
-- HD DVD player sales are up on account of discounting but little evidence of massive shifts in content purchasing.
-- I was a little light last week so I am going up a bit this week.
-- It would not surprise me to see a recovery in HD DVD sales somewhat if people decide they over-reacted. Basically a "bounce" effect. So I may be very heavy (and everyone else too).

There aren't any "decent" 2.0 players, but there is a "great" 2.0 player from Sony for $399.

I'm still not ready to pay that unless your talking about PS3. I may get a PS3 possibly. The 40GB drive is in that range with Spiderman 3 BD. Just noticed I posted that in the wrong thread :D

69 : 31

65:35

http://www.eugbanana.com/files/Movies/HDDVD/Pie.jpg

didnt want to actually post in here. but since bugs showed that funny picture. i couldn't resist.

i will go for 86% blu vs 14% red.

85:15

81:19

78:24

My old football coach would have said that you aren't quite giving enough. He always wanted 110%.

102% is the same thing as giving up.

:)

80:20

89 : 11

My old football coach would have said that you aren't quite giving enough. He always wanted 110%.

102% is the same thing as giving up.

:)


lol... Dreessen's signature regarding intelligence is the ironic kicker.

http://www.eugbanana.com/files/Movies/HDDVD/Pie.jpg

Very nice!!!

86:14

84:16

81:19

Thats player sales.....

Not to mention those are the player sales for last week (week ending 1/19) where the software was 83:17 corresponding.

Brandon

79:21

83:17

82:18

83:17

71% Bd Vs 29% Hd Dvd

88:12

Marek

A dinner out extends the deadline and lets Marek slip in.

I am going to say 88:12. BD has better releases this week and stronger recent releases.

I'll update the list of guesses when I get a chance later.

90:10

84:16

82:18

A dinner out extends the deadline and lets Marek slip in.

I am going to say 88:12. BD has better releases this week and stronger recent releases.

I'll update the list of guesses when I get a chance later.

I was late again ? :) I think I have to change my time for prediction :)

thank you Winn,

Marek

I was late again ? :) I think I have to change my time for prediction :)

thank you Winn,

Marek

Technically, yeah. You count this week, though.

You might want to put in an early guess so you are covered and change later if you want.

"Saw IV" #1 Blu-ray, "Bourne Ultimatum" #1 HD DVD (actual results).

See:

http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/hr/content_display/home_entertainment/video/e3i877e4787aa6b183ab5957c27c8c826c0

"Saw IV" #1 Blu-ray, "Bourne Ultimatum" #1 HD DVD (actual results).

See:

http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/hr/content_display/home_entertainment/video/e3i877e4787aa6b183ab5957c27c8c826c0

Wow, a now-ancient title is the HD-DVD #1? That's foretells a blowout in my view. Blu-Ray may set a record this week. Perhaps I should have predicted higher.

Wow, a now-ancient title is the HD-DVD #1?

All those new HD DVD players sold since the price cuts.







Oh and Ukrainian Christmas is celebrated on Jan.7th so assume that a lot of new owners are Ukrainian North Americans who are just now getting around to opening their presents.;)

ted

Wow, a now-ancient title is the HD-DVD #1? That's foretells a blowout in my view. Blu-Ray may set a record this week. Perhaps I should have predicted higher.

Well it was only 2% behind last week. Unless HDDVD is selling below 30k these past few weeks even a title that sells very good at 40k it wont be able to pass 30% unless BD disc sales comes way down for the week.

Hopefully Blu does very good this week..... Fingers crossed.

If Toshiba pulls a marketing coup in the next few days then we maybe back into 60-40 numbers for a little while. Hopefully not. Just ready for Uni/Para to start producing Blu so this will be over with soon. Hopefully Tosh will yield early so this Xmas will be a bountiful Blu.

Wow, a now-ancient title is the HD-DVD #1? That's foretells a blowout in my view. Blu-Ray may set a record this week. Perhaps I should have predicted higher.

Looks like Gameplan is #2 on BD, I think we will see a new record, which is saying a lot considering what we have already seen.

Wow, a now-ancient title is the HD-DVD #1?


It's the "Christmas tree effect".

I was thinking of raising mine. Oh well, usually like to stick with the first vote anyways. :o

All those new HD DVD players sold since the price cuts.


If it was Transformers, I'd be inclined to believe that. But it's the same catalogue title from the previous two weeks, no?

Brandon

It's the "Christmas tree effect".

or volume for HD DVD is very very low.....

Marek

89:11

89:11

Is that the numbers and where did you get them from?:confused: HMM still doesn't have them up.

Is that the numbers and where did you get them from?:confused: HMM still doesn't have them up.

More likely he is just getting numbers down even though the prediction period has ended.

I still plan on updating the guesses, not had time yet. Soon.

If it was Transformers, I'd be inclined to believe that. But it's the same catalogue title from the previous two weeks, no?


Or even Planet Earth, which has instead plumetted rather drastically...

Or even Planet Earth, which has instead plumetted rather drastically...

I have been surprised by PE on HD DVD going down that quickly. It had dominated the sales charts forever. The minute the Warner announcement came out, HD DVD fell considerably.

I did notice that best buy had an end cap with a big picture of the SD DVD and Blu Ray for Planet Earth. No HD DVD signage to be seen.

Oh and Ukrainian Christmas is celebrated on Jan.7th so assume that a lot of new owners are Ukrainian North Americans who are just now getting around to opening their presents.;)

ted

It is not Ukrainian Christmas - it is Greek Orthodox Christmas - they have a different calendar as far as religious holidays go.
Also, wasn't Born movie a part of BOGO sale at Best Buy? I haven't looked at this week's ad, so I don't really know what movies they got on BOGO

All those new HD DVD players sold since the price cuts.







Oh and Ukrainian Christmas is celebrated on Jan.7th so assume that a lot of new owners are Ukrainian North Americans who are just now getting around to opening their presents.;)

ted

ah, so it was this week the children are allowed to open their presents :D

It is not Ukrainian Christmas - it is Greek Orthodox Christmas - they have a different calendar as far as religious holidays go.
Also, wasn't Born movie a part of BOGO sale at Best Buy? I haven't looked at this week's ad, so I don't really know what movies they got on BOGO

It Ukrainian Christmas. Ukrainian Orthodox Christmas. And Greek Orthodox Christmas. Christmas for all those faiths who still observe the old calendar. Generally the Orthodox faiths.

It Ukrainian Christmas. Ukrainian Orthodox Christmas. And Greek Orthodox Christmas. Christmas for all those faiths who still observe the old calendar. Generally the Orthodox faiths.
There is a 13 day difference within the Julian calendar vs. the Gregorian calendar which is used today.
You won’t find astrologers, scientists, historians etc. Using the Gregorian calendar because it’s flawed. They all use the “Old” calendar which we know by Julian calendar.
Gregorian calendar Christmas – December 25
Julian calendar Christmas – January 7
13 days apart. January 7 is the true December 25.

There is a 13 day difference within the Julian calendar vs. the Gregorian calendar which is used today.
You won’t find astrologers, scientists, historians etc. Using the Gregorian calendar because it’s flawed. They all use the “Old” calendar which we know by Julian calendar.
Gregorian calendar Christmas – December 25
Julian calendar Christmas – January 7
13 days apart. January 7 is the true December 25.

While this conversation is truly fascinating, you guys are a wee bit off topic.

I will update the guesses after lunch.

Nielsen contest entries for 02/01/2008

NAME BD:HD
toon12 92:8
Robert SawyerIII 91:9
eskimo2176 91:9
thebland 90:10
badboi 89:11
shamus 89:11
dobyblue 89:11
galperi1 89:11
jmcq 89:11
bryansj 89:11
veniex 89:11
torse_jack 88:12
desmond212 88:12
jling84 88:12
lvbeethoven 88:12
MarekM 88:12
Earz 88:12
Mel2 88:12
theforce8686 88:12
splinters 88:12
ehomer 88:12
Winn 88:12
kampsy 88:12
fitprod 87:13
Icemage 87:13
manikin 87:13
nick_weasel 87:13
Aresca 87:13
chirpie 87:13
GP_23 87:13
JamesDFarrow 87:13
Newbie 87:13
rcutlass70 87:13
TheSimplePanda 87:13
gand41f 87:13
LonePirate 87:13
nyg 87:13
spacejamz 87:13
klac 86:14
Ktak 86:14
nickoakdl 86:14
swedcrip 86:14
DarkAdept 86:14
MASrules 86:14
Will d s 86:14
Fran O'Hern 86:14
user friendly 86:14
MrPorterhouse 86:14
jkcheng122 86:14
Joon TV 86:14
trondmm 86:14
jaewon 86:14
Azumi 86:14
d3code 86:14
ifmracin 85:15
darinp2 85:15
frizshizzle 85:15
Jblacklow 85:15
Bill0711 85:15
TPigeon2006 85:15
Assayer 85:15
lomax 85:15
patrick99 85:15
whoelse 85:15
Kemet 85:15
Random Digital 85:15
Jiffylush 85:15
jkwest 85:15
Monty22001 85:15
crimsona 85:15
soremekun 84:16
dstewart 84:16
Richard Paul 84:16
Steve Schauer 84:16
Vyrance 84:16
extra_hc 84:16
Greg Kettell 84:16
Jagt Mirage 84:16
Neo1965 84:16
neillkrin 84:16
Woodshed 84:16
Calmus 84:16
carljanderson 84:16
rlsmith 84:16
SGRSBSKIER 84:16
UxiSXRD 84:16
ottscay 84:16
Jackietreehorn 84:16
John Ryder 84:16



Weekly Stats

Week Picks Perfect High Actual Low Mean Median Mode
1 164 6 91* (8) [48] 83 60 (23) [110] 80.55 80.5 78
2 152 92 60 83.13 84 84

*Guess of 100% ignored as they are technically impossible due to truncating.

Thanks for the update Winn, looks like I am way below the general concensus this time...

Tomorrow should be interesting!

In the quote below is the data for rental DVDs, not HDM. In other words, ignore the figures...

But I thought the order might be relevant, not to mention the fact the HD versions of these movies are all BD exclusive.

Top 5 Rental Titles
for the Week Ending Jan. 27, 2008
Source: Home Media Research
Title Weekly Rental Revenue (millions) Total Rental Revenue to Date (millions)
1. The Game Plan $10.22 $10.22
2. Good Luck Chuck $9.21 $20.82
3. Saw IV $8.19 $8.19
4. 3:10 to Yuma $7.26 $26.92
5. Rush Hour 3 $7.12 $54.29

This is from the frontpage of http://www.homemediamagazine.com/ btw.

Nielsen contest entries for 02/01/2008

NAME BD:HD
toon12 92:8
Robert SawyerIII 91:9
eskimo2176 91:9
thebland 90:10
badboi 89:11
shamus 89:11
dobyblue 89:11
galperi1 89:11
jmcq 89:11
bryansj 89:11
veniex 89:11
torse_jack 88:12
desmond212 88:12
jling84 88:12
lvbeethoven 88:12
MarekM 88:12
Earz 88:12
Mel2 88:12
theforce8686 88:12
splinters 88:12
ehomer 88:12
Winn 88:12
kampsy 88:12
fitprod 87:13
Icemage 87:13
manikin 87:13
nick_weasel 87:13
Aresca 87:13
chirpie 87:13
GP_23 87:13
JamesDFarrow 87:13
Newbie 87:13
rcutlass70 87:13
TheSimplePanda 87:13
gand41f 87:13
LonePirate 87:13
nyg 87:13
spacejamz 87:13
klac 86:14
Ktak 86:14
nickoakdl 86:14
swedcrip 86:14
DarkAdept 86:14
MASrules 86:14
Will d s 86:14
Fran O'Hern 86:14
user friendly 86:14
MrPorterhouse 86:14
jkcheng122 86:14
Joon TV 86:14
trondmm 86:14
jaewon 86:14
Azumi 86:14
d3code 86:14
ifmracin 85:15
darinp2 85:15
frizshizzle 85:15
Jblacklow 85:15
Bill0711 85:15
TPigeon2006 85:15
Assayer 85:15
lomax 85:15
patrick99 85:15
whoelse 85:15
Kemet 85:15
Random Digital 85:15
Jiffylush 85:15
jkwest 85:15
Monty22001 85:15
crimsona 85:15
soremekun 84:16
dstewart 84:16
Richard Paul 84:16
Steve Schauer 84:16
Vyrance 84:16
extra_hc 84:16
Greg Kettell 84:16
Jagt Mirage 84:16
Neo1965 84:16
neillkrin 84:16
Woodshed 84:16
Calmus 84:16
carljanderson 84:16
rlsmith 84:16
SGRSBSKIER 84:16
UxiSXRD 84:16
ottscay 84:16
Jackietreehorn 84:16
John Ryder 84:16



Weekly Stats

Week Picks Perfect High Actual Low Mean Median Mode
1 164 6 91* (8) [48] 83 60 (23) [110] 80.55 80.5 78
2 152 92 60 83.13 84 84

*Guess of 100% ignored as they are technically impossible due to truncating.

How come only 84:16 and above are listed? Was that intentional, just as a quick demo listing or something? Cuz there are several missing, including mine:
http://www.eugbanana.com/files/Movies/HDDVD/Pie.jpg

How come only 84:16 and above are listed? Was that intentional, just as a quick demo listing or something? Cuz there are several missing, including mine
Probably just a cut and paste mistake. Winn's final tally shows the correct number of total guesses this week.

How come only 84:16 and above are listed? Was that intentional, just as a quick demo listing or something? Cuz there are several missing, including mine:


Don't worry, the same thing happened last week on the first posting of the numbers. The list is cut off somewhere, but he has all the numbers. Mine isn't on the list either (76:24)

Brandon

Maybe Winn is just totally discounting anything below those numbers to be possible? :D

Maybe Winn is just totally discounting anything below those numbers to be possible? :D

+1 lol :)

Marek

There is a 13 day difference within the Julian calendar vs. the Gregorian calendar which is used today.
You won’t find astrologers, scientists, historians etc. Using the Gregorian calendar because it’s flawed. They all use the “Old” calendar which we know by Julian calendar.
Gregorian calendar Christmas – December 25
Julian calendar Christmas – January 7
13 days apart. January 7 is the true December 25.

I disagree. Julian calendar says every 4 years is a leap year. However, this does not jive with the earth's revolution around the sun and so after a while, seasons started to shift. Pope Gregory recognized this and after consultation with scholars everywhere, proposed a correction. The correction included new calculation so no more errors occurred and also a one time correction. This correction occurred in September 1752 (in most of the world). Just do a "cal 9 1752" command on a unix terminal to see what I mean. The day after September 2 was 14th. Also, the leap year was changed so that every centennial year has to be divisible by 400 in order to be a leap year. So while 1700 was a leap year (under Julian calendar), 1800, 1900 were not (under Gregorian). 2000 was. 2100 will not be.

Sorry for the off topic. But this has always fascinated me. Now, seasons don't change as much.

This is the second week in a row that there was an odd cut off.

82-18 for the week. Results shortly.

It's having trouble loading, but apparently those that saw the magazine say 82:18

But wait for confirmation...

It's supposedly 82:18, but I can't load the page --- too many pesky browsers going to the same URL and creating a logjam. We should have got the leaks to avoid this.

It's supposedly 82:18, but I can't load the page --- too many pesky browsers going to the same URL and creating a logjam. We should have got the leaks to avoid this.

This link works for me

http://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/questex/hom020308/index.php

It's 82:18.

Edit: Oh whoops didn't see Winn already posted a couple posts above.

Perfect picks:

p0tempkin
donricouga
RDarrylR
basano
dpags
eightninesuited
iamitman
Myxamatosis
torsteinvh


Nielsen contest results for 02/01/2008

Correct Nielsen/VideoScan ratio : 82:18

NAME Guess Attempts Avg. Score
Myxamatosis 82:18 2 0.00
torsteinvh 82:18 2 0.00
iamitman 82:18 2 0.50
ottscay 84:16 2 1.00
cakefoo 83:17 2 1.00
Sketcha 83:17 2 1.00
William 81:19 2 1.00
bassmonkeee 83:17 1 1.00
Calmus 84:16 2 1.50
carljanderson 84:16 2 1.50
rlsmith 84:16 2 1.50
SGRSBSKIER 84:16 2 1.50
UxiSXRD 84:16 2 1.50
Lbarber 83:17 2 1.50
phansson 83:17 2 1.50
dpags 82:18 2 1.50
eightninesuited 82:18 2 1.50
Staying Salty 81:19 2 1.50
Jiffylush 85:15 2 2.00
jkwest 85:15 2 2.00
neillkrin 84:16 2 2.00
Woodshed 84:16 2 2.00
h0mi 79:21 2 2.00
Jackietreehorn 84:16 1 2.00
John Ryder 84:16 1 2.00
Loc13 80:20 1 2.00
Robert Spalding 80:20 1 2.00
sholmes 80:20 1 2.00
spacejamz 87:13 2 2.50
MrPorterhouse 86:14 2 2.50
Kemet 85:15 2 2.50
Random Digital 85:15 2 2.50
extra_hc 84:16 2 2.50
Greg Kettell 84:16 2 2.50
Jagt Mirage 84:16 2 2.50
Neo1965 84:16 2 2.50
JAC6 83:17 2 2.50
basano 82:18 2 2.50
bolaar 81:19 2 2.50
HuntzHD 81:19 2 2.50
rcase13 81:19 2 2.50
theflux 80:20 2 2.50
anttimonty 77:23 2 2.50
gand41f 87:13 2 3.00
LonePirate 87:13 2 3.00
nyg 87:13 2 3.00
Fran O'Hern 86:14 2 3.00
user friendly 86:14 2 3.00
Assayer 85:15 2 3.00
lomax 85:15 2 3.00
patrick99 85:15 2 3.00
whoelse 85:15 2 3.00
Vyrance 84:16 2 3.00
merlintl 81:19 2 3.00
tomsteeper 81:19 2 3.00
andyparhelia 80:20 2 3.00
bato 80:20 2 3.00
crimsona 85:15 1 3.00
Monty22001 85:15 1 3.00
ehomer 88:12 2 3.50
Winn 88:12 2 3.50
Will d s 86:14 2 3.50
Bill0711 85:15 2 3.50
TPigeon2006 85:15 2 3.50
Richard Paul 84:16 2 3.50
Steve Schauer 84:16 2 3.50
dc_pilgrim 83:17 2 3.50
merv43 83:17 2 3.50
donricouga 82:18 2 3.50
RDarrylR 82:18 2 3.50
Rich Peterson 81:19 2 3.50
bluescreen 80:20 2 3.50
allargon 79:21 2 3.50
dobyblue 89:11 2 4.00
galperi1 89:11 2 4.00
jmcq 89:11 2 4.00
splinters 88:12 2 4.00
TheSimplePanda 87:13 2 4.00
DarkAdept 86:14 2 4.00
MASrules 86:14 2 4.00
darinp2 85:15 2 4.00
frizshizzle 85:15 2 4.00
Jblacklow 85:15 2 4.00
dstewart 84:16 2 4.00
p0tempkin 82:18 2 4.00
elikhom 80:20 2 4.00
Azumi 86:14 1 4.00
d3code 86:14 1 4.00
jaewon 86:14 1 4.00
jkcheng122 86:14 1 4.00
Joon TV 86:14 1 4.00
trondmm 86:14 1 4.00
BuGsArEtAsTy 78:22 1 4.00
Pezlion 78:22 1 4.00
shamus 89:11 2 4.50
Earz 88:12 2 4.50
Mel2 88:12 2 4.50
theforce8686 88:12 2 4.50
Aresca 87:13 2 4.50
chirpie 87:13 2 4.50
GP_23 87:13 2 4.50
JamesDFarrow 87:13 2 4.50
Newbie 87:13 2 4.50
rcutlass70 87:13 2 4.50
Ktak 86:14 2 4.50
nickoakdl 86:14 2 4.50
swedcrip 86:14 2 4.50
soremekun 84:16 2 4.50
brianmonkey 83:17 2 4.50
ADGrant 80:20 2 4.50
MarekM 88:12 2 5.00
Icemage 87:13 2 5.00
manikin 87:13 2 5.00
nick_weasel 87:13 2 5.00
klac 86:14 2 5.00
desmond212 88:12 2 5.50
jling84 88:12 2 5.50
lvbeethoven 88:12 2 5.50
Merrick97 80:20 2 5.50
caesartheboxer 79:21 2 5.50
ICBM99 79:21 2 5.50
bplewis 78:22 2 5.50
badboi 89:11 2 6.00
ifmracin 85:15 2 6.00
kampsy 88:12 1 6.00
fitprod 87:13 2 6.50
bigdaveman 79:21 2 6.50
Dreessen 78:22 2 6.50
torse_jack 88:12 2 7.00
datobin1 78:22 2 7.00
bryansj 89:11 1 7.00
veniex 89:11 1 7.00
thebland 90:10 2 7.50
fredwi 80:20 2 7.50
BritInVA 79:21 2 7.50
Leviathan25 78:22 2 7.50
online 75:25 2 7.50
ts.enigma 75:25 2 7.50
edgebsl 74:26 2 7.50
eskimo2176 91:9 2 8.00
Robert SawyerIII 91:9 2 8.50
TheDaddyJDS 71:29 2 8.50
diatom 78:22 2 9.00
willyd 69:31 2 9.00
aaronwt 75:25 2 10.00
toon12 92:8 1 10.00
norliss 70:30 1 12.00
Jallopy 72:28 2 12.50
GmanAVS 69:31 2 13.50
kcgr 65:35 1 17.00
Shmack 70:30 2 17.50
Super XP 60:40 2 22.50

Off by only 5 :)

on a sadder note :( if next weeks numbers remain in the similar ratio I am calling it quits.

What was the breakdown on the movies?

YTD 77:23
SI 64:36

Top 10 are all Blu-ray again:


Saw IV 100.00
The Game Plan 70.83
3:10 to Yuma 48.21
PotC At World's End 36.35
Good Luck Chuck 36.35
300 34.51
Planet Earth 32.49
Ratatouille 26.03
War 23.05
Superbad 22.63

Intresting opposite page to the movie breakdown

Digital Playground promoting its Blu-Ray offerings.

;)

2 for 2! :)

Thanks Winn for putting it together!

Wow the W-day really killed hd dvd.

Plus there's a huge Blu-ray only ad for Digital Playground ;).

Weekly Stats

Week Picks Perfect High Actual Low Mean Median Mode
1 164 6 91* (8) [48] 83 60 (23) [110] 80.55 80.5 78
2 152 9 92 (10) [99] 82 60 (22) [44] 83.13 84 84

*Guess of 100% ignored as they are technically impossible due to truncating.

Missed it by one. Not too bad.

83:17

Not terrible. It looks like 75 is the new 60. It's hard to see things getting better for HD-DVD with zero titles in the Top 10 and few good releases in Q1. It will be interesting to see if we start seeing retailer pressure on HD-DVD. Unless something pretty profound happens, I don't see HD-DVD ever getting into the 40s again with few weeks even in the 30s.

Oops, Blu slipped down again. What's going on? :D

This is the longest wake I've ever been to.

Oops, Blu slipped down again. What's going on? :D

I guess all of those 90K owners that bought $99 players awhile back finally bought a few disks last week...

Oops, Blu slipped down again. What's going on? :DOMG It's the end of Blu-ray!

Wow, Planet Earth on Blu-ray compared to hd dvd numbers. Isn't that what some said Warner was looking at?

Nice 4:1 trend :)

Oops, Blu slipped down again. What's going on? :D

True to the end...

Wow, hopefully Paramount/Dreamworks/Universal will bother to notice that Blu Ray is now selling 4:1 on a regular basis.

Wow, hopefully Paramount/Dreamworks/Universal will bother to notice that Blu Ray is now selling 4:1 on a regular basis.

What are they waiting for, 10:1?

This is the longest wake I've ever been to.

Actually, I think it would be more accurate to characterize it as the longest attempted infanticide. ;)

Oops, Blu slipped down again. What's going on? :D

----------------------------------------------------

Week 2 sales volume was 82% of Week 1 sales volume (an 18% drop-off from Week 1 to Week 2)

[{65+(0.82)(85)}/(100+82)]*100%=
(134.7/182)*100%=74% YTD

Week 2 Blu-Ray: 69.7% of total (Blu-Ray plus HD DVD) week 1 sales volume
Week 2 HD-DVD: 12.3% of total week 1 sales volume

-----------------------------------------------------

Week 3 sales volume was 57% of Week 1 sales volume (a 37% drop-off from Week 2 to Week 3)

[{134.7+(0.52)(83)}/(182+52)]*100%=
(177.86/234)*100%=76% YTD

Week 3 Blu-Ray: 43.2% of total week 1 sales volume
Week 3 HD-DVD: 8.8% of total week 1 sales volume

-----------------------------------------------------

Week 4 sales volume was 47% of Week 1 sales volume (a 10% drop-off from Week 3 to Week 4)

[{177.86+(0.47)(82)}/(234+47)]*100%=
(216.4/281)*100%=77% YTD

Week 4 Blu-Ray: 38.5% of total week 1 sales volume
Week 4 HD-DVD: 8.5% of total week 1 sales volume

This is the second week in a row that there was an odd cut off.

82-18 for the week. Results shortly.
I have 2 out of 2 perfect picks, so please keep doing them odd cut offs :)

Intresting opposite page to the movie breakdown

Digital Playground promoting its Blu-Ray offerings.

;)

Yeah that was the 2nd thing I noticed from that spread when I went to look for the top 10 breakdown. Very funny.

Blu-ray needs a blockbuster day & date release otherwise they're going to slip under 80 in a couple weeks at the current rate :eek:

Seriously though, it looks like BD may not go lower than 80 until week ending 2/24. The release schedule up until that point doesn't have any individual titles that will put up record numbers, IMO, but it is varied and consistent with solid entries each week.

Brandon