I'm format neutral; have been for some time. I've breathlessly waited for the latest firmware updates, downloaded and made discs, and installed. I've sat through sync problems, freezes, re-starts, re-boots, and discs that wouldn't play. I have a disc that was a Christmas present that I still haven't been able to watch because my Samsuck needs a firmware update.

And as I look at all this I suddenly realized that J6P will NEVER put up with this crap. They will simply say, "hey Comcast has that movie On-Demand, and all I need to do is push a button."

So, Im wondering, will Blu-Ray or HD-DVD ever be more than a niche market? I seriously have my doubts.

HD DVD did have a chance seeing that it was backed by the DVD Forum, but Blu-Ray has no chance. If HD DVD goes under it's back to 1080p SD DVD up-scaling for many.

I think it will. Whoever wins, IMO, will replace DVD as the physical media. Downloads/on demand will eventually be a bigger market though. Still, people like to actually have something in their hands that is easy to share with friends, so I think that physical HDM will take hold soon.

hdm is gonna have a 'hard row to hoe', imo, to become accepted by the masses, if ever.

unless:
prices drop like rocks. (at least for software and bd players)
players become both much more reliable and easier to deal with.

and maybe most importantly, a whole lot more folks have to buy hdtvs.

I have my doubts about replacing DVD, but I suspect HDM will be a healthy niche market for a few years at least.
J

Nope.

Mainstream isn't ready for it. Most people still don't have HDTVs, and of those that do, a good bit of them are content with SD content (look at numerous studies of how many people either think they are getting HD and aren't, or who don't care).

By the time mainstream is ready for it, the next thing will be ready (probably downloads or on-demand stuff that will be better than DVD, worse than HDM, but plenty good enough for all those people with sub-50" HDTVs who use the TV speakers.

That's not to say it can't enjoy a healthy life as a niche market though.

I think you're right that J6P won't put up with that nonsense, and goodness knows he shouldn't.

But I do expect those issues to go away

HDM adoption is already ahead of DVD at a similar point in its lifecycle. In about a years time, analog TV transmissions will cease and the format war will probably be over. I would expect mass market adoption of BD a couple of years after that.

BD players will get cheaper, faster and more reliable. In the meantime you can always buy a PS3.

Sony has already announced they will stop making SD-DVD players. Panasonic and all others will follow suit in the coming years. The format war has to end before the big marketing push can begin. After all, Toshiba & Sony have probably dropped nearly $1 billion in incentives to the movie studios. For that kind of money they could have bought EVERY 30 second spot on the Super Bowl.

If there's one format that all the studios release content on, then yes I think HDM will take hold, but not in any significant numbers for another couple years.

High Def FormatS will never take hold.

However, once one of these formats go away, the "winner" will gain mainstream acceptance.

I have both, and I'm so sick and tired of this garbage. I wish one of them would just go away already, so these companies could actually get behind High Def Movies.

Prices need to come in line with current SD media and players. Realistically I think they messed up when they developed the formats. TL51 would have been ideal from the get-go if they would have had 2 layers of HD-DVD and a third layer for SD. That way they could put out ONE disc that is playable in SD players and HD players. That would have brought mass adoption.

Did we truly need another thread on this topic, which has been discussed at excruciating length in literally dozens of other threads?

analog TV transmissions will cease and the format war will probably be over.

not for anything but how much are the Digital to Analog convertor boxes minus the $40 off coupon from the goverment v. buying a new tv? :)

Let me help you out...

HD DVD supporter - No, both are now doomed to failure.

BD supporter - Yes, once we have 100% studio support the skies the limit.

Neutral - (somewhere in between)

Let me help you out...

HD DVD supporter - No, both are now doomed to failure.

BD supporter - Yes, once we have 100% studio support the skies the limit.

Neutral - (somewhere in between)

Reality... nobody is lining up for HDM players. They are for iPhones. There is no mass market or mass demand.

Just replace all the players on the shelves with HDM players, replace all the movies on the shelves with HDM, keep the prices the same as they are for SD-DVD, stamp a "new and improved - now in 1080p" sticker on the front and call it a day.

Guarantee that the movie business doesn't go the way of the music business in under 5 years.

Why are we even discussing this anymore? Do you people even have the slightest shred of patience?

It's taken DVD over a decade to get to where it is now. And now only a little while into HDM formats, people are whining and wondering if it will catch on? Get a freakin grip. :rolleyes:

Blu Ray has taken hold and will take off. It is a done deal as the wheels are already turning to that end. I am surprised there are so many conspiracy theorists.

Reality... nobody is lining up for HDM players. They are for iPhones. There is no mass market or mass demand.
/snip

Just wanted to add that I got pissed at my wifes carrier two days ago, last night I stopped off at an AT&T store on the way home and bought her an iPhone.

I know it is overpriced and unecessary and etc, but I wanted to get one for her, and she was very excited.

BTW, that was absolutely not her reaction when I brought the PS3 home (though admitedly it wasn't for her), and the PS3 was $100 more at that time.

Blu Ray has taken hold and will take off. It is a done deal as the wheels are already turning to that end. I am surprised there are so many conspiracy theorists.

Nah No need for conspiracy.

It is another two words though..

PURE ECONOMICS.

I think BD or HD will eventually take the place of DVD. I just think it will take longer for it to happen than with VHS. I also think DVD will linger and people won't be a prone to replacing there DVDs with HD/BD as they did VHS to DVD. Future BD/HD players will have to play standard DVDs. I don't think people will solely rely on HD downloads and "On Demand" type products. Many will want to have there own HD/BD library to go along with there fancy HD sets.

HDM adoption is already ahead of DVD at a similar point in its lifecycle. In about a years time, analog TV transmissions will cease and the format war will probably be over. I would expect mass market adoption of BD a couple of years after that.

BD players will get cheaper, faster and more reliable. In the meantime you can always buy a PS3.

HDM adoption is not ahead of DVD by a long shot. Where did you come up with that?

Analog TV transmissions ceasing are irrelvant to HDTV. Digital transmission != HDTV.

im not so sure it ever will really take off
im also a dual format guy (hddvd on HTPC and a PS3) and of my friends with ps3's, im the only one that uses it for blurays and 2 of em dont even have an hdtv.
and my wealthy older sister and her husband with 3 hdtv's in their home see no need for hi def dvd's because they watch all their "HD" movies on demand for $5 a pop

in fact i only know one other person who even cares at all about the hidef movies and thats my brother inlaw who is still looking for bluray to drop in price some before he goes purple (im the only one in my family with a 1080p tv)

Did we truly need another thread on this topic, which has been discussed at excruciating length in literally dozens of other threads?

+1
Alot of earlier posts on the same topic

If you think that inserting a disc that Toshiba mails to you into your player is not for J6P, then for certain setting up a computer for downloads is way outta sight.

VOD is and will be an alternative. My son uses VOD for the kids, still buys DVDs and will most likely get a few HD DVDs since I gave him a player. So far the A2 is such a good upconverter he has not. And he wants to be able to use the discs in the car for the kids.

When the price of BluRay comes down to DVD levels. It will simply replace DVD. Until then, it will remain a small market.

HDM adoption is already ahead of DVD at a similar point in its lifecycle. In about a years time, analog TV transmissions will cease and the format war will probably be over. I would expect mass market adoption of BD a couple of years after that.

BD players will get cheaper, faster and more reliable. In the meantime you can always buy a PS3.


These lifecycles are not comparable IMO. You have people already purchasing DVDs for years, and the new players can play SD DVDs, so the transition is much easier than the paradigm shift that DVD brought over VHS. Then you have the added factors of not all TVs being able to see the benefit of HD along with multiple SD DVD players in most households (including computers).

What this leads me to believe is that, whatever the adoption rate is, it will not follow a curve similar to that of DVD.

Blu Ray has taken hold and will take off. It is a done deal as the wheels are already turning to that end. I am surprised there are so many conspiracy theorists.

Jeff-

I am not a conspiracy theorist, I am a realist. Blu-Ray (or HD DVD) is not going to be a DVD-sized success. People are not ready for replacment of their movie collections yet although BD is most likely the best we'll get for some time. I am convinced that HDM (most likely Blu-Ray) is going to be relegated to a niche status aimed at serious collectors. That's OK with me if we get the quality and everything that can gets a BD release, but I'm sure that's what is going to happen. There is just too much pressure against it right now.

There were many, many reasons that DVD took over for VHS (and laserdisc as well). But with BD (any HDM) there is just not the perfect storm of factors that there were on DVDs side.

DVD had:

Higher Quality (Audio/Video/Extra Content)
Convenience (small size, easy storage)
Almost indestrucable (compared to tape or LD)
Price Advantage (people at that time still percieved the value of a movie to be $50 or so thanks to the years and years of "rental pricing" that most studios embraced)


BD/HD have none of those except higher VQ/AQ and even that is not a given since we are dealing with mass acceptance- most people do not have your home screen, or even mine at a modest 100"; we are dealing with the masses and their 32-37" displays and HTiB's. As for the other factors, they are either roughly equal or favor DVD (price). Add in potential economic factors and it is going to be a long hard road. Given the rate of technology advancement in this field, HDM doesn't have 10 years like DVD either.

Sony has already announced they will stop making SD-DVD players. Panasonic and all others will follow suit in the coming years. The format war has to end before the big marketing push can begin. After all, Toshiba & Sony have probably dropped nearly $1 billion in incentives to the movie studios. For that kind of money they could have bought EVERY 30 second spot on the Super Bowl.

When did Sony announce that? Do you have a link? I'm not trying to be contentious; I just never heard that.

There is also the third wheel of VOD\Download.

Look what downloading has done to CD sales in the past 4 years.
Bandwidth to the home is coming quickly that will mimic the same kind of opportunity for movies that highspeed lines in the late 90s did for MP3s.

Why are we even discussing this anymore? Do you people even have the slightest shred of patience?

It's taken DVD over a decade to get to where it is now. And now only a little while into HDM formats, people are whining and wondering if it will catch on? Get a freakin grip. :rolleyes:

People who say silly things like "never happen" and "mainstream isn't ready" are neither psychic nor qualified to make such statements.

If this was 1996 these same people would likely be complaining that 'DVD is far too expensive to ever take with the mainstream' and that 'DVD will be a niche but most people will be happy with VHS'.

Having said that, recent studies have shown that the growth of Blu-ray in it's first 2 years outpaced the growth of DVD in it's first 2 years.

My guess... it's not 'if' Blu-ray will ever 'take hold' - it's when will it become more popular than DVD.

I think you're right that J6P won't put up with that nonsense, and goodness knows he shouldn't.

But I do expect those issues to go away

Very true.

Even after all the early adopter issues go away (assuming they do). Why should j6p ever change? To get higher resolution that he may not notice? To get 7.1 audio through the built-in tv speakers?

People keep comparing HDM to DVD adoption. It is so profoundly different, therefore the adoption (or lack of) will be as well. VHS had so many flaws, that virtually everyone had a complaint with at least one of those issues. DVD is certainly not flawless, however the image & sound quality flaws are not significant for many people and do not justify the major disturbance that adopting a new format will cause them. For them HDM is a cool new thing and allows for bragging rights. DVD is not incredibly inconvenient like VHS was.
like VHS was.

Sony has already announced they will stop making SD-DVD players. Panasonic and all others will follow suit in the coming years. The format war has to end before the big marketing push can begin. After all, Toshiba & Sony have probably dropped nearly $1 billion in incentives to the movie studios. For that kind of money they could have bought EVERY 30 second spot on the Super Bowl.

Sony has effectively stopped making DVD players already. They are all outsourced to Chinese companies and have been for a few years since the downward price pressure became too much. However, if they are only going to "market" BD players and almost all others follow suit, it may be a big help to BD.

Sony has already announced they will stop making SD-DVD players. Panasonic and all others will follow suit in the coming years.

If they do abandon SD-DVD players (I've seen no such announcement) it will be simply because their price has dropped so low that they aren't worth the cost of manufacturing, shipping, warehousing, etc. Little to do with HDM.

People who say silly things like "never happen" and "mainstream isn't ready" are neither psychic nor qualified to make such statements.

If this was 1996 these same people would likely be complaining that 'DVD is far too expensive to ever take with the mainstream' and that 'DVD will be a niche but most people will be happy with VHS'.

Having said that, recent studies have shown that the growth of Blu-ray in it's first 2 years outpaced the growth of DVD in it's first 2 years.

My guess... it's not 'if' Blu-ray will ever 'take hold' - it's when will it become more popular than DVD.


And all of those "studies" and I use the term loosely (unless you are talking about others than those I am familiar with) are comparing apples and oranges. The studies I have heard of added video games (PS3) into the mix. In DVD's first two years, there were no game systems using the DVD media. If those studies were based solely on movie sales, BD would lag far behind (in fact IIRC the total of BD+HD would lag behind).

***Again, if you are using some different info and I am wrong, I appologize.

There's only a one or two people who noticed that you need to have a HDTV before HDM can be viewed. That's still still years away for being in all households. It's too early to tell. HDM has more hurdles to clear compared to DVD vs VHS.

larry

Having said that, recent studies have shown that the growth of Blu-ray in it's first 2 years outpaced the growth of DVD in it's first 2 years.

My guess... it's not 'if' Blu-ray will ever 'take hold' - it's when will it become more popular than DVD.

Maybe so.... but that growth *could* hit a brick-wall a lot faster and *might* fizzle out/remain niche. I know lots of people that just dont seem to care about this like we do. They have the 46" LCD or plasmas but they have $79 dollar DVD players and appear to be in NO rush to replace it despite what sales pitch I give them. I hope it works out but I have to see things happening at the mainstream level to feel better about it.

Also, bear in mind that to TRULY enjoy HD movie formats there are several other upgrades(aka costs) to be absorbed. New AV receivers, speakers, furniture, etc, etc. The list goes ON and ON. Its not fair to tell them that they only need to buy the cheapest, shittiest BD player or whatever and that will "do it". It most certainly will NOT do it. And, there are tons of great titles NOT available yet so they cant even fill their library with everything they would like since its not out yet.

Tougher uphill battle than you or I might think when you break it down....

Why does J6P have 3.0 ghtz PCs to surf the web and send emails? Why do people drive massive SUVs to get only themselves to work? Why do 2 people live in a 2500 sq ft home? Why does that same couple need a 3 car garage? Or 4 tvs?

Because Madison avenue says we need to. People will buy just because they want the best and want what there neighbors are raving about. It does not matter if it is calibrated or if they can see a difference. They will buy it and they will be overjoyed!

Jeff-

I am not a conspiracy theorist, I am a realist. Blu-Ray (or HD DVD) is not going to be a DVD-sized success. People are not ready for replacment of their movie collections yet although BD is most likely the best we'll get for some time.

Why do people need to replace their movie collections? Unlike the transition from VHS to DVD, people's DVD collections will still work perfectly in their Blu-Ray players!

The only thing Blu-Ray needs to succeed DVD as a next generation format is for people to buy all their FUTURE movies on Blu-Ray.

Why do people need to replace their movie collections? Unlike the transition from VHS to DVD, people's DVD collections will still work perfectly in their Blu-Ray players!

The only thing Blu-Ray needs to succeed DVD as a next generation format is for people to buy all their FUTURE movies on Blu-Ray.

this is also why catalog titles that have seen DVD releases don't do well compared to day and date titles.

as for blu-ray taking hold, i believe it will, how long is the question. the technology itself is constantly improving what will reduce cost as well as rid compatibility issues. sony recently developed a smaller and cheaper blu-ray laser unit (http://www.dailytech.com/article.aspx?newsid=10469) that will not only reduce cost, but also allow smaller devices to play blu-ray discs. it's only going to improve from there.

My whole question is, by the time's it's an idiot and bullet proof format, will it be too late? Will flash drives and VOD already have made the format obsolete?

The success of MP3 players has proven that the general public doesn't care about hi def audio. The same thing holds for video as well, where most people are perfectly happy with SD DVD, and many people just don't see much of a difference between DVD's and HDM's. I've seen this time and time again with friends and family.

I don't claim to be psychic, but I'll put out a prediction FWIW. I predict that in five years BD will hold about 10-15% of the market, with about 50% for DVD's, and 30-40% for downloads. I can't imagine that BD will ever be more than 20%, but I hope I'm wrong.

Why do people need to replace their movie collections? Unlike the transition from VHS to DVD, people's DVD collections will still work perfectly in their Blu-Ray players!

The only thing Blu-Ray needs to succeed DVD as a next generation format is for people to buy all their FUTURE movies on Blu-Ray.

Because without double dipping, the format will be a niche, which will not be the success that the studios are looking for.

Triple dips now a days. Lost track of how many times I seen The Mask of Zorro in different iterations!

The success of MP3 players has proven that the general public doesn't care about hi def audio. The same thing holds for video as well, where most people are perfectly happy with SD DVD, and many people just don't see much of a difference between DVD's and HDM's. I've seen this time and time again with friends and family.

i dunno if this is entirely true. the boom of mp3 players really caters to ppl on the go. when at home, many ppl still desire a viewing experience similar to going to the cinema/concert. many of my friends who used to watch their dvds on a 27" tube out of tv speakers are now buying 42" lcd's and HTIB sets. when they see there's this blu-ray thing out there that can give them even better home viewing experience, they'll be interested.

at this point tho prices need to come down some more, especially software, and the technology itself need to be more user-friendly. i would have a very hard time trying to explain to tech-illiterate friends about updating firmware.

Because without double dipping, the format will be a niche, which will not be the success that the studios are looking for.

I disagree. If people were to stop buying movies on DVD, and buy all future mobies on Blu-Ray, I would say the format WOULD be a success.

And don't discount the possibility of FUTURE double dipping! I would not put it past a studio to release There Will Be Blood on Blu-Ray, and then a few months later, release There Will Be Blood Special Edition.

You definitely can't compare HDM with DVD for all the reasons already mentioned above. The transition from VHS to DVD was huge, and that just isn't the case with DVD to HDM. I have a modest setup with a 50" screen and 5.1 sound system (SVS, Ascend), and even I have to admit that the jump to HDM is nowhere near as large. It doesn't take much imagination to see how insignificant this is for people who have analog televisions and no surround sound. Even if you do have a small HDTV around 40", the difference in picture quality over DVD is just not that spectacular. Yes, there is a difference, but no that much. Audio quality--who cares?

It looks to me like this generation of HDM is going to be niche. When larger HDTVs have really become mainstream in several years, HDM will have a better shot. By that time, though, there could be another format. I'd be just fine with that personally. BD and HD were rushed and not nearly as revolutionary as they could have been had they been released a couple years later.

i dunno if this is entirely true. the boom of mp3 players really caters to ppl on the go. when at home, many ppl still desire a viewing experience similar to going to the cinema/concert.

Myself and everyone else I know play their msuic in MP3 format in their home theatre. Not just on the go. They are happy with the fact that they can have all of their music collection in an easy to search/access/playlist format and have gotten rid of all of their CD's as they take up space and require too much work just to listen to one song. It used to be that you'd have to change the CD's in your 100 disc changer every now and then. Now you have a single hard disk with 15,000 songs all meta-taged. It's SO much easier.. even if there is a slight difference in quality.. the good outweighs the bad.

That's the reality. It won't be any different for video.

The success of MP3 players has proven that the general public doesn't care about hi def audio. The same thing holds for video as well, where most people are perfectly happy with SD DVD, and many people just don't see much of a difference between DVD's and HDM's. I've seen this time and time again with friends and family.

I don't claim to be psychic, but I'll put out a prediction FWIW. I predict that in five years BD will hold about 10-15% of the market, with about 50% for DVD's, and 30-40% for downloads. I can't imagine that BD will ever be more than 20%, but I hope I'm wrong.

There is some truth to this. Apple's online movie portal shipped more movies than BD and HD-DVD combined last year.

Why does J6P have 3.0 ghtz PCs to surf the web and send emails? Why do people drive massive SUVs to get only themselves to work? Why do 2 people live in a 2500 sq ft home? Why does that same couple need a 3 car garage? Or 4 tvs?

Because Madison avenue says we need to. People will buy just because they want the best and want what there neighbors are raving about. It does not matter if it is calibrated or if they can see a difference. They will buy it and they will be overjoyed!

Four computers, one for video editing one for photo editing one for the lovely wife and one for dad.

Three people three tvs minimum, 4 because we have a guest room. No quibbling over programming

3400 square feet cuz it is basically two families with my 94 year old father living with us.

SUV because I have an offshore boat I need to tow 120 miles to the ocean.

3 car garage with not one car in it because I am storing all that stuff that Madison Avenue said I had to have over a period of decades. :D

I think niche. Only niche people like those that would frequent these forums want to spend the money for the improvement.

Make the players and titles cost what SD-DVD players and titles do, I think that's the only way for it to truly be the next major format.

$30 DVD players did as much to make DVD the dominant media format as anything else did, and as other mentioned, this also worked on all existing TV's.

but wasn't flat panels being listed as niche on this very forum 2 years ago i don't
think anyone can predict the public's buying decission.

Will the Hi-Def Formats Ever Take Hold?

IMO, no since you specifically said formats and as my Highlander friends like to say "in the end, there can be only one."

BD will replace DVD over the next 10 years, but will never be as big as DVD was. DVD had no real competition from so many other sources in HD, Internet (non- HD) and gaming that only had a very minor impact on DVD.

IMHO is based on pure economics. HD DVD would be widely accepted because of price point and manufacturing costs of disks. Independents will never be able to afford to release on blu-ray.

Both technologies are basically equal, and hence the finished more economical product should take off, but this may not be the case because of buy offs and what not.

Blu-ray IMHO should never have launched, and should have never launched before the specs were complete. Even if blu takes the war (Its very long from over people) does the BDA expect people to upgrade the obsolete players so they or there kids can play the advertised special features. Presently every blu-ray (Baring some of the high ends) are released obsolete because they are not a finished spec. This is going to kill blu-ray in about 2 years time, when the J6P realize they were beta testers, and a new way of viewing movies (Downloads, solid state etc) will be the new in thing.

HDM did have a chance for mass consumer acceptance with HD DVD, the format approved by the DVD forum, so we wouldn't have a format war. IMHO the BDA caused the format war, and the BDA will kill both formats. Do people actually think that studios care which format takes off? Sure they want to cash in right now (Ie Warners tentative switch), but thinking as a movie studio executive, i would want to buy my time until Digital downloads become popular, because honestly its the true cash cow, and gives users very little rights over there media. Just look at how Fox and Disney love there DRM.

From a realist point of view, both will survive, both will be a niche. The DVD Forum was formed for a reason, yet the greedy members forgot about this, formed another group, and screwed us all. And yes im duel format with a huge biased towards HD DVD.

And FYI, i loath Digital Downloads, i want physical media, but my ethics force me to buy only red ones.

IMHO is based on pure economics. HD DVD would be widely accepted because of price point and manufacturing costs of disks. Independents will never be able to afford to release on blu-ray.


Except some independents already -are- releasing on Blu-ray.

Once again, you make this statement as if what is today always will be. The cost of Blu-ray players has fallen in some cases 70-80% in the past 18 months. It's not going to just sit still.

More people are buying players now then a year ago. Why? The biggest reasons is that cost has come down. Still in "early-ish" adopter territory but cost has come down enough that the adventurous (but not crazy brave) lot are moving in now.

The idea that HD-DVD can get cheap enough to be mass marketable but Blu-ray can't is just nonsense. The biggest thing Blu-ray has over HD-DVD is market penetration and generally market penetration = lower costs.

GIve it another 18 months. We're in year #2 of what is expected to be a 15-20 year format and as the numbers state, we're already growing faster than DVD did.

HDM did have a chance for mass consumer acceptance with HD DVD, the format approved by the DVD forum, so we wouldn't have a format war.

Once again, the DVD Forum are nobody. They have no right to 'approve' any next generation standard and expect to have that standard imposed on the industry. They have no power beyond what signed contracts say they have. The industry at large walked away from the DVD Forum with regards to next generation media.

The DVD Forum arguably caused the format war as it was clearly in the minority with regards to the direction the 'next generation' was going in and yet still Toshiba refused to back down from their royalty payments. You hate the format war? Blame Toshiba and the DVD Forum. Everybody else who matters felt the future was Blu.

Four computers, one for video editing one for photo editing one for the lovely wife and one for dad.

Three people three tvs minimum, 4 because we have a guest room. No quibbling over programming

3400 square feet cuz it is basically two families with my 94 year old father living with us.

SUV because I have an offshore boat I need to tow 120 miles to the ocean.

3 car garage with not one car in it because I am storing all that stuff that Madison Avenue said I had to have over a period of decades. :D

And a partridge in a pear tree... :D
My wife and I live in a large apartment with my 65 inch HDTV, a smaller HDTV in one of the bedrooms, 2 notebooks, 4 desktops, 2 comcast HD STB (one is a DVR also), and a PS3. The good news is we hardly ever have to turn on the heat in the winter.:)

but didn't toshiba say they where taking a hit on each player to gain market penitration
and how long can you do this before your operating that branch in the red. and because
of this now the public thinks all players should be sold for that.

but didn't toshiba say they where taking a hit on each player to gain market penitration
and how long can you do this before your operating that branch in the red. and because
of this now the public thinks all players should be sold for that.

Toshiba hasn't said yes or no. Once, a Toshiba Australia executive claimed that Toshiba Australia wasn't losing money on each device, which is totally believable... but I'm sure Japan was.

The undeniable fact is that, hardware wise, HD DVD and BD players aren't terribly different and Toshiba undercut Blu-ray players by 50% on launch day.

Look at the technology inside an A3. You honestly think you can get all of that for $149 and have everyone involved make money? Not on your life.

Toshiba's strategy was clear - they couldn't compete on name recognition or studio support so they went forward on price - and the only way they could do that was subsidize the players with the eventual hope of HD-DVD becoming the standard. At that point, Toshiba's patent profile behind HD DVD means they'd make all their losses back and then some.

Same strategy that Sony and Microsoft (though Microsoft has never done it successfully as the Xbox division is still $4B or so in the red counting the losses from Xbox 1) use for their games divisions.

Maybe so.... but that growth *could* hit a brick-wall a lot faster and *might* fizzle out/remain niche. I know lots of people that just dont seem to care about this like we do. They have the 46" LCD or plasmas but they have $79 dollar DVD players and appear to be in NO rush to replace it despite what sales pitch I give them. I hope it works out but I have to see things happening at the mainstream level to feel better about it.

Also, bear in mind that to TRULY enjoy HD movie formats there are several other upgrades(aka costs) to be absorbed. New AV receivers, speakers, furniture, etc, etc. The list goes ON and ON. Its not fair to tell them that they only need to buy the cheapest, shittiest BD player or whatever and that will "do it". It most certainly will NOT do it. And, there are tons of great titles NOT available yet so they cant even fill their library with everything they would like since its not out yet.

Tougher uphill battle than you or I might think when you break it down....

+1

DVD is so entrenched and engrained in people's lives now that in order to replace it, you're going to have to offer something of more value.

DVD still has 100% of Hollywood content being released.
DVD has more hardware solutions available.
DVD burners are readily available for easy recording
The Cost of average DVD players is low enough to have 4-5 players in the home for the price of a single HD disc player.
Catalog DVDs are advertised in sales weekly as low as $5 per title. (This past Black Friday I encountered people buying small libraries of titles.
DVD can be experienced in full on any existing TV in the home.

All of this adds up to value. Right now, HD disc simply doesn't offer enough to the average consumer that outweighs this kind of value.

Time will tell if that changes.

Toshiba hasn't said yes or no. Once, a Toshiba Australia executive claimed that Toshiba Australia wasn't losing money on each device, which is totally believable... but I'm sure Japan was.

The undeniable fact is that, hardware wise, HD DVD and BD players aren't terribly different and Toshiba undercut Blu-ray players by 50% on launch day.

Look at the technology inside an A3. You honestly think you can get all of that for $149 and have everyone involved make money? Not on your life.

Toshiba's strategy was clear - they couldn't compete on name recognition or studio support so they went forward on price - and the only way they could do that was subsidize the players with the eventual hope of HD-DVD becoming the standard. At that point, Toshiba's patent profile behind HD DVD means they'd make all their losses back and then some.

Same strategy that Sony and Microsoft (though Microsoft has never done it successfully as the Xbox division is still $4B or so in the red counting the losses from Xbox 1) use for their games divisions.

That's a nice spin on Toshiba's strategy. Toshiba has been continuously lowering the price of HD DVD to reach a mass market attractive pricing in a sooner timeframe. This didn't start with the $98 sale in Nov., or the Black Friday deals or the recent price cut. HD DVD cut prices to $500 as early as last spring and simply continued the trend.

Whether they're losing money on the strategy or not, they've maintained course. If all studios were neutral, we'd be having a different discussion.

BTW, MS has recently turned a profit in their Entertainment Devices division finally putting them in black.

while some think "why spend the extra money for so little improvemet?" i think once we are at single format, prices will start to drop more as technology gets better and it will get to a point where it becomes "why not upgrade so for little extra cost?" there's also the issue of current dvd players failing and ppl looking to replace it with HDM players.

while some think "why spend the extra money for so little improvemet?" i think once we are at single format, prices will start to drop more as technology gets better and it will get to a point where it becomes "why not upgrade so for little extra cost?" there's also the issue of current dvd players failing and ppl looking to replace it with HDM players.

eaactly those older players will not last for ever why not upgrade when they
fail.

eaactly those older players will not last for ever why not upgrade when they
fail.

well, currently the issue for the j6p is he doesnt want to spend $300~$400 on a new player when he can get one for $50.

well, currently the issue for the j6p is he doesnt want to spend $300~$400 on a new player when he can get one for $50.

That may currently be the situation, but I don't think it will be by the time j6p actually goes out to get a new player anyway.

If Blu-ray grows at the same rate as it did last year BD should overtake DVD in Weekly sales somewhere between 2010 and 2011.

Disc sales in 2007 for the first 3 weeks were around 50k each week.
Disc sales in 2008 for the first 3 weeks were around 200k each week.

At that rate BD disc sales will be around 3.2 million disc sales each of those weeks in 2010 and 12.8 million in 2011. That grow is during a format war. Once all studios are on BD the growth should increase much more.

When did Sony announce that? Do you have a link? I'm not trying to be contentious; I just never heard that.
A bit over stated on my part. Back in September 2007, Sony said is that they will stop making SD-DVD DVR's (link (http://www.pcworld.com/article/id,137152-c,dvdtechnology/article.html))

There is also the third wheel of VOD\Download.

Look what downloading has done to CD sales in the past 4 years.
Bandwidth to the home is coming quickly that will mimic the same kind of opportunity for movies that highspeed lines in the late 90s did for MP3s.
maybe where you live they can't seem to keep mine working 3 weeks in a row.

HDM will take off just like SACD and DVD-A, and maybe even faster!

Even if prices are the same as SD DVD there are took many problems to over come.

HDM is incompatible with all the DVD players that people already own.
HDM offers ZERO benefit for the hunderds of millions of SD TVs.
HDM offers very little benefit for HDTVs that are under 32 inches (unless you sit 4 feet away).
HDM offers no improvement in sound for anyone without an AVR or most people with HTiBs.

For those who bring up the dumb VHS vs DVD argument, DVD offered an improvement on almost every TV and was far easier to use (no rewinding). Also, most people only had to replace only one VHS player. Now many people have 4 or more DVD players (I have 7).

anyone ever think that the mfg's are not making enough money on these cheap dvd
players and like one poster said since all hd players currently play sd-dvd they could
stop making sd players.

anyone ever think that the mfg's are not making enough money on these cheap dvd
players and like one poster said since all hd players currently play sd-dvd they could
stop making sd players.

The off brands will not stop making them until people stop buying them. It will be very difficult for any manufacturer to walk away from DVD players until their HD players are under $100.

anyone ever think that the mfg's are not making enough money on these cheap dvd
players and like one poster said since all hd players currently play sd-dvd they could
stop making sd players.

Of course they could, but there will always be manufacturers willing to go with the low price production. If the general public doesn't bite on higher cost units, it won't matter if Sony, Panasonic, or Pioneer make DVD players...unless someone outlaws SD DVD.

HD DVD did have a chance seeing that it was backed by the DVD Forum, but Blu-Ray has no chance. If HD DVD goes under it's back to 1080p SD DVD up-scaling for many.

I agree. If HD-DVD disappears, blu-ray will be left as an even smaller niche market for optical media based high def media content than the combo of hd-dvd and blu-ray is today.
If Sony were to put their anti-customer attitude and price gouging market tactics away, there may be a chance that high def could become mainstream. But if hd-dvd goes down the toilet, Sony and the studios in their pocket won't do that and will instead kill the whole market. :cool:

Mind you, this is coming from somebody whose only HDM player is a Panasonic DMP-30k bought from Best Buy with five free movies instantly plus the send aways all after the Warner decision. I own no HD-DVD hardware or software.

No I don't think the HDM formats will ever "take hold" as you refer to as I think they are not now in a postion via pricing, confusion between formats, HDTV adoption rates, etc. to gain a foothold before something else comes along. HD-DVD might have been able to do it as the hardware is priced at the point now where it could be mass adopted and the finished profile would reduce the confusion that Blu-Ray causes with their three hardware profiles one of which has not been introduced. HD-DVD software prices would still be a hurdle for mass adoption but I imagine the margins there are still at the "soak the early adopter" level and prices could be lowered pretty easily to increase sales and keep profitability. Blu-Ray software prices might not be in a similar circumstance given how much more expensive it has been said it is to make that media. The prices for Blu-Ray disc movies might have to stay higher for a long period of time to pay for the fixed costs of creating the manufacturing capabilities to make the discs whereas it has been said it is only a comparatively smaller retool of current SD-DVD facilities to produce HD-DVD media. Plus the HD-DVD combo discs, if priced at only a reasonable premium to the SD version would alleviate the concerns of those with multiple SD DVD players looking to buy one HDM player for their main HDTV.

However, the writing is on the wall in my opinion. Even if Warner Bros. had decided to go HD-DVD exclusive that would have been a roughly 50-50 split between the two formats, probably why they asked another studio to go HD with them (Fox I believe) if that rumor is true. 50-50 would not have ended the "war" which is causing HDM adoption to be even lower than it should be in my opinion. At that point it would have been a run to get players into the household and with every ps3 being a Blu-Ray player the numbers would never have shown the succes HD-DVD did and would have continued to have. Warner must have been only looking at the charts that include the ps3 when showing Blu-Ray player penetration vs. HD-DVD. However, most intellectually honest AVSforum members know it's misleading to consider the ps3 sales equal to standalone player sales in terms of the future impact on HDM software sales or success of each of the two MOVIE formats. Yes, some people have bought a ps3 only for Blu-Ray and having a lack of any good game titles (in my personal opinion a strategic move by Sony to promote Blu-Ray) has almost certainly caused ps3 owners that bought it mostly for games to purchase Blu-Ray movies. However, the first user is a minority and the second circumstance will eventually change as games are released that are worth playing. So the ps3 effect, which I will give almost total credit to for Blu-Rays now presumed victory will not help it at all in terms of gaining a hold, as the vast, vast majority of customers are not buying an expensive game system now or ever as a home movie player. All standalone players have the basic buttons for playing movies on the chassis. Where is this on the ps3? Heck, you have to use a controller as a remote with no labels as to what the buttons do? Never going to work mainstream. CE afficianados like us here? It's fine, we don't have a problem with it. But we have already spoken with our wallets as to what format we prefer for the most part save the few still sitting out until the dust fully settles. Our contribution to the war is mostly over, now the battle moves to the mainstream customer and the side that could have won is too decimated by the losses in the early adoption phase to continue the fight much longer in my opinion. Warner did what they did supposedly to end the war and get a single HDM format. They have done that, but in my opinion they awarded victory to the side which will probably never develop in to more than a enthusiast niche product. Maybe HD-DVD would have never either, but they might have had a better chance.

Edit Mind you, I don't feel the ps3 should not be included at all when comparing Blu-Ray hardware sales vs. HD-DVD as every ps3 IS a Blu-Ray player and that can not be ignored. It's just that putting it on a chart with equal weight compared to HD-DVD players which are all standalone (even the xBox 360 add-on is more worthy than the ps3 in this regard as the only reason to purchase it is for HD-DVD movies) was never an honest portrayal of the hardware situation. A better example would have been the software side which was mostly 60:40 in terms of Blu-Ray which was also probably close to the level of studio support during Warner's neutrality. Assuming all studios released similar amounts of movies (and I know it was said that each had similar total number of available movies but many of the HD-DVD's were not hollywood movies on retail store shelves) that says to me that neither had established itself as a clear front runner, regardless of what Warner had claimed about "the public has chosen" or some such nonsense when they announced there decision to go Blu-Ray exclusive.

I think it will catch on as long as there enough pressure to kill it. Why wouldn't people want it to catch on? If you're content with DVD, buy DVD. If downloads are your thing, buy downloads. I don't see the point in trying to limit other people's options. If you don't see the difference now, then don't buy it.

But eventually you will. SDTV is being phased out, and replaced by HDTV. It's only a matter of time. You can't even walk into BestBuy and pick up a new TV that isn't HD. Your next TV will be an HDTV. Sizes are getting larger and quality is going up. When you eventually get around to stepping up your display quality, you're going to want the option to step up your source quality as well. If you're not there yet, fine, but there's no sense in fighting to close options you may want in the future.

If they come up with 49,000 titles bewteen the the two formats?

Let it be niche, at least I would be able to get most thngs I would want on HD.


I only use the 49,000 title mark as comapring it to laserdisc which most consider never made it out of niche status.

HD DVD did have a chance seeing that it was backed by the DVD Forum, but Blu-Ray has no chance. If HD DVD goes under it's back to 1080p SD DVD up-scaling for many.

Nice, if your format doesn't win, then high def has no chance, because of...super upconversion,,, or digital downloads... or flashcards.

The off brands will not stop making them until people stop buying them. It will be very difficult for any manufacturer to walk away from DVD players until their HD players are under $100.

HD-DVD is already at the $100 mark. I'm sure in less than 2 years or so most of the players will be including blu-ray. I purchased a buggy Sony DVD writer for like $250 and just a year later it was $50 for a much better drive. Prices on hardware goes down REALLY fast after people start buying.

However, the writing is on the wall in my opinion. Even if Warner Bros. had decided to go HD-DVD exclusive that would have been a roughly 50-50 split between the two formats, probably why they asked another studio to go HD with them (Fox I believe) if that rumor is true. 50-50 would not have ended the "war" which is causing HDM adoption to be even lower than it should be in my opinion.

50/50 split on content with one sides final spec player selling for $99 and the other sides ONLY final spec player selling for $399 and being a not-in-demand gaming console.

The war would have been over quick. Anyone that denies this is fooling themselves.

But it is what it is.. and now it's all up to what each side does to give/take the final blow.

I think we're in an era where we've just about reached the general publics max for "needing" quality in the video disc world...

SD DVD is super cheap, super easy to get pretty much any movie, TV show, excercise video, instructional video etc that they need....variety of available SD DVD's is HUGE and covers a wide path of potential buyers.

To them SD on their new widescreen TVB is basically an amazing jump from their 32" crt's...and I'd have to agree..when I went from small crt/dvd to 32-57" widescreen the viewing pleasure of watching SD dvd went up a lot more than in the past...it sort of was a breath of fresh air....

At this point the general public has pretty much decided that SD dvd is perfect for their whole family needs...for $5-10 they can buy a nearly new release, play it in every room that has a DVD player and the minivan's player as well...you can beat the discs up and they pretty much play too.

As for hi-def...they are being spoon fed a bunch of HD channels that include MANY movies in hi-def...they don't give a crap about MPEG this or that, or bitrates etc...they just care that Dukes of Hazzard or Old School is on their free 6 month subscription of HBOHD and it looks good...oh and they can rent HD PPV with the press of a button...no waiting for long waits via Netflix only to find the disc is scratched or has a hair on it and won't play. So their HD fix is pretty much taken care of via CABLE and SAT.

Folks, lets face it, Mr and Mrs John Doe are content with what they have and even the splashiest of ad's won't entice them to buy HDM and have to buy even MORE machines to watch it not to mention re-buy many of the discs they already have.

HDM, if it makes it out alive will be a niche market relegated to people who live and breath A/V via these kindas of forums.

I know it pains people here to hear that their beloved HDM of choice isn't really "needed" by the whole world, but it seems that it hasn't proven itself to get out of the niche mode over the last nearly 2 years.

Maybe Blu will be able to pull out a big win and make all the above talk moot, but so far it isn't exactly the case yet.

I've actually been surprised at the SD-DVD PQ on my A3 on a 50" plasma.

4 the masses to accept hdm, they'll want (need ?)(imo, of course):

1. 50"-60"+ flat panel for around $500 max:eek: (with decent pq). (some lower end hd front pjs are aready close to that price point)(acer).
2. decent quality 5.1 htib with built in bd (even hd dvd)-$300 max:eek:.
3. hdm @ around $20 max:eek:, preferably less.
most folks would probably forsake #2 and just get low end hdm player ($150 max) and use tv spkrs.

it'll get here, in a couple of years, imo.:cool:

There are many obstacles in the way. The main one being lack of players in every environment and the secondary main one being DRM/copy protection.

Until you can play bluray movies in your mini-van, on a portable player, in your bedroom, at a friend's house, rip it to your PC/Laptop, convert it to an ipod/PSP MP4, or the many other things the wide-open DVD format allows for a $15 price tag, it will never succeed.

For me, It's a great format for watching first run movies sent to me by netflix. But not necessarily the best format for purchasing movies. It just does not have the flexibility of DVD's. Yeah it looks a whole lot better, but double price better?

I bought Lost Season 3 on bluray for my PS3. Now I'm on a Naval deployment and didn't have room to bring my PS3. Had I bought the DVD version like my previous seasons, I could have brought them with me to watch and/or others to watch on their equipment. Because I own the bluray version, my options became much more limited. I ended up DLing the season in .avi format just so that I had it in a usable format for my deployment. How much did this decreased functionality cost on the Lost Season 3? It was close to double the DVD season 3 price.

The picture quality improvement is great, but the limited use is a burden for such a premium price difference. Then you have TV shows and some movies that just won't benefit very much from being in HD at all...so why should anyone buy a bluray version of those?

DVD is the pinnacle of convenient use but still in a solid "hold it in your hand" disc-based format. Upconverting players make them look quite good, and I can see why people will continue to stick with it.

IMO, HD-DVD's "dual format" discs were the best way to get people to start to migrate because it maintained the convenience factor that DVD's provide while also providing the high def picture for their living room players. Not having any option for bluray buyers to play their discs on other movie players makes bluray adoption a HUGE step to take for the general public.

If they can figure out a way to get a DVD layer onto a bluray disc that is playable on regular DVD players, it would be a big step towards providing the same convenience factor that movie buyers currently have.

im ex-army but what the heck, 'go Navy!':D

im just waiting for a under $250 bd player, personally. it'll be pretty soon, imo.