I have both Blu-Ray and HD-DVD but they feel so 1986 to me. How about a player that accepts 32-GB SD movie cards? Has this been explored?

Still too expensive.

And too easy for my kid to swallow my complete collection of Friends episodes on my HDSD movie cards.

the bd50 from panasonic i believe will, still waiting on price and release.

Ahh cool. It's just got to be a matter of a year or two before 32GB SD cards are cheap.

I have both Blu-Ray and HD-DVD but they feel so 1986 to me. How about a player that accepts 32-GB SD movie cards? Has this been explored?The Panasonic DMP-BD30 accepts SDHC cards so it might be capable of that but I don't see movies being commercially sold on SDHC cards. Though flash memory is very useful for a range of applications it is far more expensive than optical discs.

i think that is for camcorders that shoot hd .

i think that is for camcorders that shoot hd .

Yepp - the Panasonic HDC-SD1 records to SD (and SDHC) cards and is a fantastic piece of equipment.

I suppose having a player that could play them without having to burn them to a disc might be a nice option, although the 4GB and 8GB cards are going to have to come down in price a little more unless you like moving them from HDD to SDHC back and forth. I wish the Panny 1080p plasmas with the SDHC slots could play movies files directly, but they only do slide shows of pictures.

On my Panasonic HDC-SD5, I can take 1920x1080i60 AVCHD recordings on SDHC, put the card in the PS3, and it plays. Apparently, on Panasonic models with an SD port, the SDHC will play as well.

The SDHC is too expensive though, I have 2 8GB and 1 16GB class6 cards (must be class 6 for video), they're about $80-$100 each. This is one case where you must buy namebrand as noname SDHC cards are unreliable and have very high errors (I lost entire recordings with a noname SDHC due to errors in the flash cells).

Because they're too expensive to use as archive media, I spend a lot of time backing them up. At some point, I have to transfer them to BD-RE as that's much cheaper. The 32GB SD-HC are still in prototype and will be incredibly expensive when they first come out, my guess is you can buy 2 HD-A3's and have change for a good wine for the money you'll pay for an 32GB SDHC class6 card in the first few months it comes out.

Did you know you can buy < $12 USB adapters that can hold SD HC cards? Today 8 GB is practical for ~$60 in SD HC or even USB flash drives. Likely next year before 16 or 32 GB become reasonable in price.

its like any other media with time ,price will drop and storage will increase, just not
overnight.

Did you know you can buy < $12 USB adapters that can hold SD HC cards? Today 8 GB is practical for ~$60 in SD HC or even USB flash drives. Likely next year before 16 or 32 GB become reasonable in price.

If you buy SDHC cards for the AVCHD camcorders, make sure it is rated class6 (or better in the future), and get a name brand that has been reviewed well. I picked a noname 8GB SDHC card once and some clips of video I took had unrecoverable errors that made me lose the entire clip.

Flash cells only have a limited read/write cycle, and some have defects that should have been discarded, but still end up in noname modules that don't work. Beware of deals that sound too good to be true.

I buy and have had very good luck with SanDisk. Sorry you had personal problems with some vendors. I expect 10,000 read/write cycles. But don't like the idea of using flash to boost a portable PC's virtual memory aka Ready Boost.

i have good luck with both sandisk and lexar with my nikon gear and my neighbor
uses lexar in his panasonic sd5.

Not exactly what you are looking for, but my portable DVD player plays SD cards and supports Divx. One card holds several movies.

It won't be long before there are a ton of players that support SDHC cards and the HD profile for Divx.

Lost in the shuffle, I don't know whether people realize that BD players that have SD slots and the AVCHD logo basically support 1920x1080 and lower res SD-flash AVCHD playback. PS3 also supports DiVX and AVCHD playback from anything it can read, including SD and USB HDD. So the question is already answered. It's not "if there will be", but "there are already SD players".

the AVCHD logo basically support 1920x1080 and lower res SD-flash AVCHD playback.

Only on Sony and Panasonic players. The reality is though that AVCHD is not a friendly format. You need multiple directories and multiple files rather than just one nice simple file.

It is a lot easier to just create one HD divx file and play it on a PS3.

One more thing...the panasonic software that came with my AVCHD camcorder makes you convert it to mpeg2 to play it back!:eek:

judging from some of the reports from the camera show sdhc seems to be the card
of choice.

I think that if and when flash memory is used for selling movies, it will be on a new format so that:

a) new players can be sold
b) various copy protection means can be added.

They might also do something about the size, to address James's concerns. Maybe larger and flatter.

MicroCenter is selling 8GB USB drives for $30. Prices are coming down very fast. It won't be long before 32 or 64GB flash memory can be had for $10 or less.

MicroCenter is selling 8GB USB drives for $30. Prices are coming down very fast. It won't be long before 32 or 64GB flash memory can be had for $10 or less.

While I agree 32GB flash memory will be $10 or less in time, I think a 25GB BD-RE will be 50c before the 32GB flash becomes $10. A 50GB BD-RE will also reach $5 long before the 32GB SDHC gets to $10.

While I agree 32GB flash memory will be $10 or less in time, I think a 25GB BD-RE will be 50c before the 32GB flash becomes $10. A 50GB BD-RE will also reach $5 long before the 32GB SDHC gets to $10.

I definitely don't think that will happen. DL DVD-R have been out how many years, and they're still far from 50c per disc. It will be years if ever before 25GB BD-RE gets to 50c level IMO.

One more thing...the panasonic software that came with my AVCHD camcorder makes you convert it to mpeg2 to play it back!:eek:

The state of available software today for moving/editing AVCHD onto optical is horrendous. But I suspect that Ulead and Cyberlink will be attacking this this year and next. This is what happens with being first, you get to be pioneers, but you also have to put up with all the growing pains of new technology when the applications to make it usable is still being fleshed out.

flash is an ideal camcorder temporary recordable media, but it is too expensive to use to archive your movies (can you imagine what buying 25 of theose 32GB SDHC would cost?).

I suspect eventually, if the HD home camcorder market is to take off, the same level of 'ease' of moving camcorder footage to DVDs will have to happen for BD-RE or perhaps AVCHD on red-laser.

HDD cannot be a final archive media for a long time because (1) you can't mail that video to the grandparents (2) people who may want to see your video won't have the internet bandwidth for that size of ftp.

I definitely don't think that will happen. DL DVD-R have been out how many years, and they're still far from 50c per disc. It will be years if ever before 25GB BD-RE gets to 50c level IMO.

Single layer DVD-R are < 20c today in a 100 cakebox. The dual layers DVD-Rs are priced more at retail, but is < $2 in bulk if you buy them in a cakebox. When it comes down to it, SL BD-RE is only marginally more expensive to make than SL DVD-R if the volumes ramp up.

I suspect the dual layer BD-RE (50GB) will also take a long time to go below $5, but it will happen. The single layer BD-RE though, should see $5 easily by mid 2009 as long as their burner prices go down and PC people start using them.

(I'm basing this roughly on my memory of how DVD blanks prices declined --- I paid almost $15 for my first SL DVD-R media, and that's more than what I pay for SL BD-RE today.)

The Panny 30 SD card slot will play video recorded on SD with your HD Panny video camera. AVCHD format.

While I agree 32GB flash memory will be $10 or less in time, I think a 25GB BD-RE will be 50c before the 32GB flash becomes $10. A 50GB BD-RE will also reach $5 long before the 32GB SDHC gets to $10.

Everyone at my work has a 1-4 GB flash drive in their pocket. No one has a 7 GB DVD-RW.

Also, When I bought my SDHC card, it came with a free usb/SDHC adaptor to read/write to SDHC cards. Are there any free BD-RE writers?

Everyone at my work has a 1-4 GB flash drive in their pocket. No one has a 7 GB DVD-RW.

Also, When I bought my SDHC card, it came with a free usb/SDHC adaptor to read/write to SDHC cards. Are there any free BD-RE writers?

I'm saying a USB flash is a must carry prop for anyone now, but USB sticks you carry with you to store and occasionally transfer stuff like pdfs, ppts and visio files with. In my industry, just about every engineering team has a cakebox of DVD blanks they have around in case they need to fedex the results of their work to a customer --- only for things that are so big, ftp would take days.

The DVD blanks are needed to send so we go through hundreds every month, the USB flash stays with each person and we buy new ones only when it doubles in size, and only after the price goes down. The primary storage to transfer results from the lab to our personal machines is still the USB HDD.

There's a time and place for every media, but if you need to mail it to someone, the optical blank is the only one robust and cheap enough to serve that purpose.

And too easy for my kid to swallow my complete collection of Friends episodes on my HDSD movie cards.

He he. My 3 yr old did something along these lines 2 days ago. I pulled the 8GB SDHC card out of my Panasonic camcorder to transfer to my HTPC. He wanted to carry it to the other room so I let him, I did something for about 30 seconds, go in the other room and his hands are empty. "Where's the card daddy gave you?" He points to the 3/16" gap between the door casing and the pocket door in the doorway. AAAAHHHHHHH!!!!! After 30 minutes of disassembling the pocket door, I finally retrieved it.

I think I'll be hanging onto that card from now on.

He he. My 3 yr old did something along these lines 2 days ago. I pulled the 8GB SDHC card out of my Panasonic camcorder to transfer to my HTPC. He wanted to carry it to the other room so I let him, I did something for about 30 seconds, go in the other room and his hands are empty. "Where's the card daddy gave you?" He points to the 3/16" gap between the door casing and the pocket door in the doorway. AAAAHHHHHHH!!!!! After 30 minutes of disassembling the pocket door, I finally retrieved it.

I think I'll be hanging onto that card from now on.

I take it you never had a front load VHS and your son didn't walk about with a peanut butter sandwich. Somethings that you think only happens in movies --- well, they're not as rare as we'd think.

Similarly, CD and DVD cases on shelves are magnets to kids as well, so if you leave them alone for 2 minutes.... :D

Might be longer than a 'year or so' before they're reasonably priced to use for this:

"Pricing on SanDisk's new offerings start at $100 for the 8GB Ultra II Plus, $180 for the 16GB Ultra II, and $350 for the 32GB Ultra II."

Might be longer than a 'year or so' before they're reasonably priced to use for this:

"Pricing on SanDisk's new offerings start at $100 for the 8GB Ultra II Plus, $180 for the 16GB Ultra II, and $350 for the 32GB Ultra II."
Sandisk's prices are one of the highest, if not the highest on the market. Using their pricing as the reference is not accurate. You can get decent quality 8GB SDHC cards for $35 and 16GB ones for $70.

I've had a couple of 4G SD cards I've used in a Sanyo HD1 for over a year with no problems. They are pre-HC 150x. One is Transcend, the other A-data. I bought a couple A-data 4G class 6 SDHC cards for less than $20 each for use in a new Panny SD5. They work fine. Some cheap 2G cards (slow) from Sandisc and PNY work fine in either camera as well. Guess if I get burned, I'll go for the big bucks!

Dave

i think the hd recordable disk will be cheaper than flash drives for a long time
but they both have their place i don't see one replacing the other.

I think we can trust the name brands, but I suspect that in ebay, there are lots of defective flash chips that are supposed to be destroyed but somehow end up as SDHC cards under false labels, they claim to be 500x or 266x or class6/class8, but in reality, they generate read errors and can't be used.

It's the usual caveat emptor, you see a lot of noname SDHC cards with prices that are too good to be true, and from my experience, they don't work, except unless you fill them up immediately, it might take a couple of weeks in the camera before you see the first corrupted pictures.

I'm not sure if the OP really meant movies distributed on electronic media instead of optical media.

I myself, have thought that this BD/HD optical was totally silly and that the true evolution from DVD should be the solid-state-disk media. The current problem is there is no real research or production of WORM SSD memory cards (Write Once Read Many). The emphasis of research and production is for the WMRM RAM cards. Aiming a laser at a moving target and reflect it on a receiver to interpet a 1 or 0 does seem so passe` (just missing the smoke in calling it smoke and mirrors technology).

While the SD format is "cool", a size for content distribution should probably be closer to the 3.5" floppy. Allows for human readable labeling, high capacity memory real-estate, proximity contact to the player to avoid contamination of the electronic contacts as well somewhat water-proof.

Besides the VHS .v Beta II war, what is mostly likely keeping adoption by the masses is that the masses don't really see what the difference is between SD and HDM optical media. They saw the difference between 8-track to Cassette to CD, VHS tape to DVD. Moving from a DVD to a "StarTrek" (original series) type of small type flat cartridge would be tactile proof that there is a difference of quality.

It won't be long before 32 or 64GB flash memory can be had for $10 or less.64 GB flash memory for under $10 would be great but based on past history won't that take about 6 to 8 years? Also for flash memory to be useful for selling pre-recorded data it would have to be competitive with optical discs in terms of per GB cost.


I myself, have thought that this BD/HD optical was totally silly and that the true evolution from DVD should be the solid-state-disk media.
...
Aiming a laser at a moving target and reflect it on a receiver to interpet a 1 or 0 does seem so passe` (just missing the smoke in calling it smoke and mirrors technology).I have never understood why some people are interested in forcing what they think the future should be and calling anything less than that silly or passe. Optical media is currently the best method to deliver pre-recorded data and might remain so for decades into the future.


The current problem is there is no real research or production of WORM SSD memory cards (Write Once Read Many).
There has been research into that area it is just that no one has figured out how to make them cheaply. Companies do not heavily invest into something when current evidence suggests that there would be no return on that investment.

I have never understood why some people are interested in forcing what they think the future should be and calling anything less than that silly or passe. Optical media is currently the best method to deliver pre-recorded data and might remain so for decades into the future.

Carefull, you've been posting here long enough to know that you shouldn't be skirting this thread's rules. In no way am I forcing you or anyone else to accept MY opinions or views.



There has been research into that area it is just that no one has figured out how to make them cheaply. Companies do not heavily invest into something when current evidence suggests that there would be no return on that investment.

The consortium for HDM decided to push technology of optical media for the distribution of movies. Contributing to that decision was pro/con they agreed upon to have the consumer accept HDM, familiarity with the existing 5.25" shiney disc or education/acceptance of a new physical format. Without a willingness to create a demand, as all these companies want to do, for a technology type, that particular technology remains as a niched curosity in company labs. At the go decision time, most likely yes between the two it did look more ROI $$ in a shorter period for those at the final table, should say, tables since camp HDM split to different sides of the camp fire. WARNING I'M INTERJECTING MY OPINION HERE AND YOU WILL THINK WHAT I THINK...."cheaply" is relative in this case as no matter where at camp HDM the companies are, getting that fire started and to keep it stoked is currently at a loss $$ wise to them while trying to push the consumer adoption. Their ROI forecasts are either very liberal for return time or ???.



Decisions have been made, so thus far the consumers are on the optical path. Some think it's red, some blue others purple. Either way it's still optical. That wasn't the real point of the OP's post. I don't have the real knowledge as to what "...will be..." as question posed. I also thought this was the Media section, not just optical media, but rather for civil discussions of all Media.

64 GB flash memory for under $10 would be great but based on past history won't that take about 6 to 8 years? Also for flash memory to be useful for selling pre-recorded data it would have to be competitive with optical discs in terms of per GB cost.
I think Flash memory has had much quicker drop in price and increase in capacity than optical discs.

CD-R was first developed in 1988. In 20 years, it has gone from 640MB to 50GB with cost of 50GB media ~$30 per disc.

1 GB flash memory cards were first available in 2005, and in 3 years, the largest size memory is 32GB. I can pick up an 8GB flash drive for $30 today. I would venture to guess that we will have 32GB flash for cheaper than BD-DL within 2 years.

My prediction for next generation packaged media would be credit card sized flash memory card with one of those SmartCard chips for DRM.

Watch out xradman, some people might think that you are forcing them what to think what the future will be:rolleyes:

I think Flash memory has had much quicker drop in price and increase in capacity than optical discs.

CD-R was first developed in 1988. In 20 years, it has gone from 640MB to 50GB with cost of 50GB media ~$30 per disc.

1 GB flash memory cards were first available in 2005, and in 3 years, the largest size memory is 32GB. I can pick up an 8GB flash drive for $30 today. I would venture to guess that we will have 32GB flash for cheaper than BD-DL within 2 years.

That may be the case, but what's important is the cost of pressed media. A pressed BD costs much less to produce than a BD-R or a flash card.

The studios are not going to embrace a format that costs more to manufacture unless there is a compelling reason to do so (like the penetration of the PS3 to push BD, for instance). Even if it gets to the point where it costs just 50 cents to make a 32-64GB flash card, it's probably going to cost half or less than that to make a BD. They are not going to double their manufacturing costs just so the movies are on cards.

Are people really going to think "well, I wasn't into that whole Blu-ray thing. I didn't see much of a difference, and I just didn't care. Oh, but these movies are on cute little cards! Aren't they so adorable? Sign me up for a player now!" :)

Some people seems to misunderstand economy of movie on flash memory. If the movies are distributed as "buy-to-own" solid-state media, it is too expensive and will take 7-10 years before it will make any economic sense, i.e solid-state media costs few dollars per HD movie (8-16G).

But for rental video business, it makes perfect sense even TODAY. Solid-state media can be recycled and reused for distributing movies hundreds times so that it cost less than a dollar for each movie. Solid-state media cost less than optical disc media in rental shop operation.

Solid-state rental video media costs less than DVD video.

So called "Portable media player" like video iPod or HD network player / DivX DVD player with SD memory slot is just for geeks who can tolerate inconvenience of home recording/encoding/internet downloading. It can't be main-stream movie distribution channel. Rental movie on ready-made (pre-recorded) on solid-state memory is way to go.
.

I think Flash memory has had much quicker drop in price and increase in capacity than optical discs.

CD-R was first developed in 1988. In 20 years, it has gone from 640MB to 50GB with cost of 50GB media ~$30 per disc.

1 GB flash memory cards were first available in 2005, and in 3 years, the largest size memory is 32GB. I can pick up an 8GB flash drive for $30 today. I would venture to guess that we will have 32GB flash for cheaper than BD-DL within 2 years.

My prediction for next generation packaged media would be credit card sized flash memory card with one of those SmartCard chips for DRM.

Flash cards go back to the 90's if not earlier. The earliest reference I can find is a SSFDC, ie, solid state floppy disc card (ain't that quaint) for an Apple Quicktake 200 camera. In 07/97 (10.5 years ago) a 2 MB, or .002 GB, card cost $130. Or about $65,000 per gigabyte.

Could you imagine someone in 1997, just 10.5 years ago, predicting that in less then ten years everyone could be walking around with portable media players that could play movies, in color no less, and way better that 80 x 60 resolution, and... holy crap, hold on to your jet pack Dr Smith... HALF A MILLION DOLLARS WORTH OF FLASH RAM!!!!! (Edit: Did I mention it could also be a phone that could access the internet faster then 33.6 kbps!! I know, now i'm just being crazy!!) (EDit:edit: just to make it completely unbelievable, I'm going to say it could have a camera with more then a Million pixels! How bout that?)

Well... I sure all the special members of the NeoLudite forum (c1997) would of had a good laugh at such an outrageous, ludicrous, and utterly silly prediction. Seriously, you'd need to carry 4,000 ssfd cards to have that much memory... Just how small do you think they can make those things? Not to mention a 266 Mhz cpu ans all the support chips... Does it come with it own red waggon to carry all the 12v batteries? HAHAHAHA!!! HAHAHAHA!!!!!

Haaa... yeah... i'm so sure...

Here's a prediction... memory is going to get so voluminous and so small that we will eventually carry ALL of our data in a chip under our skin which we could then use at any appropriate device, OR add to to at any time... Want to rent a movie, walk into blockbuster (just say'in) find the one you want, put you hand on the kiosk, think send, viola! Payment made, movie uploaded, go home... or go to a friends house, or hop on a plane and watch it there.

That's the future... nothing to carry, nothing to forget, nothing to return... no frakkin shiney disc... in less then ten years

Just to show how far and and how fast technology moves, see this review here! (http://www.hothardware.com/articles/Sharps%5FInternet%5FViewcam%5F%5FSize%5FMatters/) of the Sharp Viewcam from December 15, 2001... just over 6 years ago.

Buy then, the SSFDC was up to 32 MB! Ooooh, doggie, that must of been a mite pricey. But the camera was only $699 and could record up to 10 minutes of high quality 320 x 240 video, or 288 very Fine 640 x 480 Pictures.

Well don't that just beat all! I Suppose all those smart people over at Sharp just got up and went home after they released that... I mean, man, come on! It just couldn't get any better;)

I guess people are confusing three types of distribution

Movie Rental.
Flash could really kill here. Flash is falling by factor of 3 annually. This is much faster that magentic (hard drives) and whole magnitude faster than optical. Figure good name brand 32GB flash card runs about $200 right now. In a year it will be $60-$70. Another year likely $20-$30. Another year <$10 with 64GB cards running $20-$30.

A movie rental system based on reusable flash cards could really enjoy economies of scale. Imagine a best buy, pick movie you want they load it on your flash card (one use). Stores never need to worry about running out of "copies" of hit movies. They don't need to worry about buying too many copies of a movie that bombs. No used inventory to get rid of. The ability to stores 100,000+ movies because niche titles wouldn't need to be displayed but could still be rented from a customer service counter.

Take it a step further. Imagine kiosk at your gas station, grocery store, or 7-11. Something like "redbox" but without nothing to return. Insert your memory card, pick movie and it loads. When player finishes playing it the movie is deleted.

Move purchase (traditional media)
Flash is never going to replace optical. Movies are duplicated on optical because it cost next to nothing per disc. DVD runs about <$0.50 per disc.
BD is more but given time it will drop to same price range as DVD (just as DVD followed same trend as CD).

Flash costs about $200 for 32GB today (2008). While memory prices will fall (as they have for last decade and will continue to for next decade). The economies are different. If you can buy 32GB for $200 then 1 GB = $6. Anyone see $6 1GB flash cards or what about 256MB for $1.50? Nobody sells them because it doesn't make economic sense. Even if you found a card it simply is being sold off. No fab can produce silicon at a price as low as $1 per unit. Fabs cost litterally billions of dollars. They can't profitably produce $1 memory cards. So capacities will always rise to keep flash prices in the $20-$200 range. So while you may be able someday (2016) get a $20 1000GB flash card you will never find a $1 50GB flash card. The economies used by studios require an ultra low price (although not lowest price per GB) and extreme volume. Flash economies must repay the $5+ billion dolar fab so they require moderate volume and much higher selling price per unit of silicon.

Hybrid system
A future system where large capacity players with internal drives (either magnetic or high capacity flash) of 2,3,5TB of space combined with purchase system via flash. The flash card is reused and can be used for rentals or purchase. Same stores of kiosks could sell you the movie which is loaded onto your flash card.

A method like try-and-buy could be used. Rent the movie from store or kiosk and it is loaded on flash card for $4. You place it in player and movie is loaded into player and can be viewed anytime in next 30 days. You watch movie and at the end a message offers you to purchase the movie for $9.99. If you say yes the DRM is updated and movie is now stored permanently on the player.

Will this take off? I don't know but it is the only "purchase" method that works with flash economics. Eventually rather than 32GB cards you could get 200GB cards (capable of holding 4-5 movies) for the same price.

Movies will never be distributed the way they are now (shelves and shelves of write once media) on flash. The costs of building fabs makes such high volume low cost, low capacity requirements an impossibility.

Flash costs about $200 for 32GB today (2008). While memory prices will fall (as they have for last decade and will continue to for next decade). The economies are different. If you can buy 32GB for $200 then 1 GB = $6. [B]Anyone see $6 1GB flash cards or what about 256MB for $1.50?

http://cdn.travidia.com/rop-sub/19770431

Ummmm... yeah...

http://cdn.travidia.com/rop-sub/19770431

Ummmm... yeah...

The point remains. The fabs are constantly upgrading to build larger chip capacities not building low capacity cheaper. 2GB is no longer being produced (or in smaller volumes). Production is moving to 4GB->8GB->16GB->32GB->64GB etc. The retail chain is large and products will remain in the pipeline but as cost per GB drops smaller cap chips get axed in favor of newer higher cap chips.

Obviously as price per GB drops because of higher cap chips the "value" of lower cap chips goes down and retail gets marked down. However no company like Samsung is saying hey lets build a $8 billion next gen fab to control 100% of the <$12-2GB market. They are looking to build out fabs to control the 64GB, 128GB market.

For flash to replace (in traditional media sense) optical it needs three things
1) Cost per GB of $0.10 or less
2) Ability to produce 50GB capacity chips in volume of billions at cost <$0.50
3) Ability to mass produce copies with extremely low error rate in <5 sec (including replication & testing).

Point #1 will happen. Flash prices will drop and capacity grow by factor of 3 of next couple years. Even when it slows it will still be growing faster than optical, magnetic, or tape.

Point #2 won't happen. Despite seeing $12 - 2GB cards (product line closeout) their is no sustainability in <$1 flash cards. Why not $3 512MB cards, $1.5 256MB cards, $0.75 128MB cards, $0.30 64MB cards. Just because flash is now $6 (for mainstream capacities) and someday will be $0.10 per GB doesn't mean flash companies will build out at <$1 per chip segment.

Point #3 is even more difficult. Movies are on optical because of cost but also speed. DVD replication line can both DVD layers, bond them together, and scan the entire disc optically for defects (essentially high res camera) in less than 3.5 sec at a cost <$0.50 and failure rate of <3%. All three parts are essential when dealing with product that is distributed in volume exceeding billions of units.

Even if flash were to speed up by a factor of 100 it couldn't be copied in <3 seconds. Even if it could be copied there is no way to instantly verify the accuracy of the copy like what can be done optically right now.

Trying to use flash for traditional bulk distribution is like trying to force a square peg into a round hole. The companies making the decisions will eventually ask one question. Why? Flash has no good answer. Where flash "could" be useful is in rental, rental-to-own, media server w/o ultra highspeed markets.

The point remains.....

hmmm... you seem to be making an assumption that the next storage technology will revolve around flash cards that look like the flash cards we see right now on shelves. Why?

And why would it be easier to fabricate a multilayer disc assembly than a few square millimeters of silicon? Actually, a few square millimeters on a disc several square centimeters containing hundreds if not thousands of units. Please elaborate?

PS3 fanboy's arguing about the future of the optical disc (already a 30 y/o technology) is like Tycho Brahe spinning the math on his extensive observations to Prove the earth is at the center of the universe, just like there frakking blu disc... get over it.

I guess people are confusing three types of distribution.
Movie Rental.
...

I don't think that flash memory card will be "owned" by consumer. What you suggested is like that consumer should bring (very expensive) blank VHS tape to rental shop to rent a movie. The flash card will be "owned" by rental shop/chain like Block Buster.

The shop will have stocks of pre-recorded movie flash cards just like movie DVD. Most of the movie cards are "replicated" in the small replication factory. There may be some on-the-fly/on-the-spot replication at rental shop in case of shortage or rare and hard-to-find movie. But such on-the-spot replication will cost time and labour. Replicating movie flash card will take 5-10 min. Kiosk is also not so favorable for this reason.

I agree that flash card will not useful for purchasing movie (buy-to-own movie), but very useful for rental movie.

Here is my question:
As most people here agree, flash memory is heaven-sent media for movie rental business. Then why movie rental company like Block Buster, Best Buy, Wal-mart don't use flash memory to rent HD movie to consumer? Technology does not matter. Flash card player is much simpler and cheaper to build than HD optical disc player like Blu-ray. Cost per movie is cheaper than DVD rental operation. Flash card is much easier to protect against movie piracy or illegal copying than DVD or HD optical discs.
So, why don't they use flash memory, yet?
.

I don't think that flash memory card will be "owned" by consumer. What you suggested is like that consumer should bring (very expensive) blank VHS tape to rental shop to rent a movie. The flash card will be "owned" by rental shop/chain like Block Buster.

Maybe. I think both models could work but the store owned model likely would be easier to implement.

The shop will have stocks of pre-recorded movie flash cards just like movie DVD. Most of the movie cards are "replicated" in the small replication factory. There may be some on-the-fly/on-the-spot replication at rental shop in case of shortage or rare and hard-to-find movie.If the only goal is to replace prerecorded movies on optical with prerecorded movies on flash it will not happen for very long time (if ever). In other words if the goal is not to leverage a new model but instead take everything exactly how it is used in optical (replication plants, static discs in shrink wrap, unchanging inventory) and just replace a flash card for an optical disc there is no reason. Optical works "fine". The big question WHY is not answered. Having movies loaded from a server in the store onto flash cards gains three advantages that can't be done with optical.
1) Never any used or outdated product. Blockbuster buys 100K+ copies of big movies on launch week. By end of the first month demand is maybe for 10K copies. By end of first qtr it is a couple thousand. Blockbuster sells the used copies to offset the loss but with flash recorded instore inventory can simply be adjusted (from lower demand titles to higher demand titles) with no loss.

2) Availability. Store can simply operations by just having a couple thousand blanks in the store. Even if "loading" a movie takes 5-10minutes they can maintain a supply of movies and as a product gets depleted load it so from the consumers standpoint a movie is "always available". Computer software could manage that using current inventory & projected demand much how inventory management software works now. The only change is that instead of "purchasing" more product the server replicates more copies as needed.

3) Inventory. Currently Blockbuster needs to maintain thousands of disc per location even though only a small minority gets used each day to ensure the needed disc is available. The system is hardly perfect and results in substantially more discs stocked than are needed at any time. Flash "on-demand" would allow a just in time (JIT) inventory model that has made companies like Dell & Wallmart very successful. Smaller store, smaller operation, higher profit per location.


From a tech standpoint movies on a chip is cool. Cool doesn't do well in business world. CEO will want a clearly obvious reason drop optical (which has worked for over decade) for flash. Without a new business model flash doesn't gain anything over optical (which already works, is cheap, has millions of players, and is understood by consumer).

But such on-the-spot replication will cost time and labour. Replicating movie flash card will take 5-10 min. Kiosk is also not so favorable for this reason.
True it would be a challenge. There is some work of increasing speed of flash. There are also some new "flash like" technology on the horizon called Phase Change Ram. It increases transfer rate to that comparable to RAM. IBM, Samsung, and Intel are dumping a lot of R&D into it because they see the potential. A card based on phase change technology could load 3-4 movies in a few seconds. It may take a jump to Phase Change Ram for "flash" to replace optical for rentals.


As most people here agree, flash memory is heaven-sent media for movie rental business. Then why movie rental company like Block Buster, Best Buy, Wal-mart don't use flash memory to rent HD movie to consumer? Technology does not matter. Flash card player is much simpler and cheaper to build than HD optical disc player like Blu-ray. Cost per movie is cheaper than DVD rental operation. Flash card is much easier to protect against movie piracy or illegal copying than DVD or HD optical discs. So, why don't they use flash memory, yet?
.It simply isn't ready "yet". Flash still costs substantially more than optical on a per GB basis. There are also issues to overcome like speed, number of reliable rewrites, new systems (content storage server, "making" movie card at the Point of Sale) in an industry that tends to shun any kind of change. Also flash can't be as good as or slightly better than optical for a change to take place. It must be substantially better.

It may take 3-4 years before flash from a technology standpoint is viable as a rental transport platform. It likely will take another 2-3 years after that to get the "ducks in a row" as companies like BB first need to realize it is better, then they need to research it, then they need to get studios on board, then they need to get CE companies to produce a player (or combo BD + flash player), then agree on a standard, licensing, developing DRM (you know that is coming), developing safeguards on the media server. Finally deployment, employee training, testing, and launching.

I think we will see something in 5-7 years but not tomorrow. Flash will be cheaper on per GB basis that optical within 2-3 years but that isn't "enough". There are other barriers, both technological and business that need to be overcome.

If the only goal is to replace prerecorded movies on optical with prerecorded movies on flash it will not happen for very long time (if ever).
My rental business model has similar advantages as your rental business model. I will call my pre-recorded media rental model as "rent-and-return" model, and your model as "copy-on-demand" model.
I argue that rent-and-return model will take major share of all movie rental transaction. Copy-on-demand rental will take smaller portion to supplement rent-and-return rental for movies which is not available as pre-recorded "rent-and-return" movie stock.

Let me explain flash card "replication factory". It is not large, centralized factory like DVD press factory. They are small workshop with few operator and few replication machines, much like Xerox book copy house. They are located in most cities, near to the rental shops. Major city like L.A. or New York. will need few tens of such workshops. Geographical proximity is critical to reduce transportation cost/time. The replication workshop is controlled by (group of) movie companies.

1) Never any used or outdated product.
The same here. Blockbuster stores will "buy" 100K+ copies of movies flash cards on launch week from the replication workshop scattered throughout whole U.S cities. By end of the first month, 90% of flash card of the movie will be returned to replication workshop to be reused for new movie. So outdated movie flash card will not sit idle on the shelf for long time.

2) Availability.
Customer don't have to wait. They can rent most popular new movie titles ("Hot" titles) immediately. Some outdated/minor/rare titles ("Cold" titles) which are not stocked at the moment on the shop as pre-recorded flash card will be "replicated" on-the-spot in the rental shop, just like "copy-on-demand" model. Rental shop can use old flash card with outdated movie to replicate movie that the customer requested. Customer have to wait 5-10 min. to replicate the requested "Cold" movie. The flash card media itself is owned by rental shop/chain. There is no difference in availability.

3) Inventory.
Blockbuster store don't have to maintain thousands of disc which are rarely rented. It will maintain stocks of popular/new titles only. 90% of customer will rent the pre-recorded "rent-and-return" flash card. Minor 10% customer who want to rent outdated/minority/rare title will rent movie by "copy-on-demand" method. So rental shop don't have to maintain large outdated title inventory. It will maintain only small "hot" titles inventory.

There is some work of increasing speed of flash. There are also some new "flash like" technology on the horizon called Phase Change Ram.
It will take 5-10 years before such new memory technology can replace current slow flash memory. So if I was in video business TODAY, I will not pay much attention to such a new future technology. We need business model which can be executed and succeed within few years.
It simply isn't ready "yet". Flash still costs substantially more than optical on a per GB basis. There are also issues to overcome like speed, number of reliable rewrites, new systems
...
Also flash can't be as good as or slightly better than optical for a change to take place. It must be substantially better.
As I told in sometime before, cost is not issue even TODAY. It cost less than DVD for rental business operation if the media are reused hundred times. Flash memory can be rewritten few 1000's of times at minimum. Speed of current flash memory is more than enough for HD movie playing. There is no technical or economical huddle to overcome to implement this business model.

Flash card is far better media than (HD) optical disc for consumer in every conceivable aspects except expensive media price: in usability, convenience, portability, ruggedness, ease of use. etc. You name it.
Most of all, price of flash card player will be much cheaper than HD optical player. Even HDTV receiver set can have integrated flash card player with it.

So I think that such movie on flash memory card business makes sense even TODAY. I guess that flash card will replace current optical media like DVD/ Blu-ray in video rental business within few years.
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I saw today completed auctions for 16 Gb usb flash drives for $30. If the economies of scale were expanded, the price would drop over night. No, I think there is a more sinister reason why HD consortiums like discs.

1) The reality with discs is it allows them to control the content more effectively.
2) It also ensures repeat sales (a major reason many studios are lining up for digital downloading) or rentals. Discs, even ones with special coatings scratch and wear out over time. How many people have worn out a flash usb or an SD card? Sure, you can purchase a bad one, but they are a good bit more durable than you average disc.
3) Discs, especially pressed, have a great markup. High capacity drives are growing exponentially larger and faster and would destroy that component of sales.
4) Finally, flash drives and SD cards are needed for the next iteration of ultraHD. Then the cost of making holographic discs will far exceed that of flash and SD cards which will have far faster speeds, be much more durable, and have no additional requirement for hardware. CE makers will build a standard spec into their TVs having learned from the failure of HD-DVD / Blu-Ray to play nice.

Panasonic is already closing in on what the future will be. SD card plugs into TV, and the movie plays. Further, it offers advantages for IPOD, vehicle and portable playback. Discs in a car environment are not optimal...it gets a little too warm to leave a disc in a hot car here in Texas. :-)

Well, I said some things in the thread that got lost to the server outage so I'll repeat them here.

I think that if flash players are to take off, they would have to be implemented in addition to the optical drives in BD players and consoles, and the hard drives in other boxes. They won't make it if they have to be dedicated to flash playback, because there is no compelling reason for people to buy another incompatible format over BD. (At least with the disc formats you could still play your DVDs and CDs on the same player.) If, and only if, the format really takes off, will they do flash standalones, but by then the cost of a drive will be so low that they'll probably just include it anyway, unless it's portable.

I also think this rental idea won't really attract those with broadband internet access, since they can just download the movies directly to their homes. I also don't think it will compel people who use NetFlix or other mail rental to switch. The reason they chose such a service in the first place was to get away from having to drive to and from the store to pick up and return movies, and be at risk for late fees. The flash card rental store would be that scenario all over again.

I think the days of the dedicated video store may be numbered anyway due to factors like affordable purchases and mail/online rentals. So the download kiosks would probably have to be like photo developing, put in places people go to for other things, like Wal-Mart and grocery stores. They might do well in that capacity, if the manufacturers can be convinced to add flash playback to their devices.

I know, for one, that the PS3 will do SD, but only the 60 and 80GB versions. The 40GB version, you would need to use a USB SD dongle to play anything. I'd just download a movie from an online service, and then save that movie recording to an SD card, and plug that into the SD slot on an 80GB PS3, and hope that it'll play, knowing how picky Sony can be about that. I'm quite sure you can encode a movie to play on just about anything, if that movie license will let you.

The point remains. The fabs are constantly upgrading to build larger chip capacities not building low capacity cheaper. 2GB is no longer being produced (or in smaller volumes). Production is moving to 4GB->8GB->16GB->32GB->64GB etc. The retail chain is large and products will remain in the pipeline but as cost per GB drops smaller cap chips get axed in favor of newer higher cap chips.

Obviously as price per GB drops because of higher cap chips the "value" of lower cap chips goes down and retail gets marked down. However no company like Samsung is saying hey lets build a $8 billion next gen fab to control 100% of the <$12-2GB market. They are looking to build out fabs to control the 64GB, 128GB market.

For flash to replace (in traditional media sense) optical it needs three things
1) Cost per GB of $0.10 or less
2) Ability to produce 50GB capacity chips in volume of billions at cost <$0.50
3) Ability to mass produce copies with extremely low error rate in <5 sec (including replication & testing).

Point #1 will happen. Flash prices will drop and capacity grow by factor of 3 of next couple years. Even when it slows it will still be growing faster than optical, magnetic, or tape.


I agree!


Point #2 won't happen. Despite seeing $12 - 2GB cards (product line closeout) their is no sustainability in <$1 flash cards. Why not $3 512MB cards, $1.5 256MB cards, $0.75 128MB cards, $0.30 64MB cards. Just because flash is now $6 (for mainstream capacities) and someday will be $0.10 per GB doesn't mean flash companies will build out at <$1 per chip segment.


The sustainability would come from the mass selling of them as the main distribution of HDM. Same as the sustainability of <$1 Optical Media.


Point #3 is even more difficult. Movies are on optical because of cost but also speed. DVD replication line can both DVD layers, bond them together, and scan the entire disc optically for defects (essentially high res camera) in less than 3.5 sec at a cost <$0.50 and failure rate of <3%. All three parts are essential when dealing with product that is distributed in volume exceeding billions of units.


I agree at this point in time, this may be an issue but in 3-5 years, who knows what the possibilities will be.


Even if flash were to speed up by a factor of 100 it couldn't be copied in <3 seconds. Even if it could be copied there is no way to instantly verify the accuracy of the copy like what can be done optically right now.

Trying to use flash for traditional bulk distribution is like trying to force a square peg into a round hole. The companies making the decisions will eventually ask one question. Why? Flash has no good answer. Where flash "could" be useful is in rental, rental-to-own, media server w/o ultra highspeed markets.

There are multiple benefits to flash, starting with bandwidth abilities and possibly in the future total storage. For all the BR Fanboys, imagine a Flash media with a transfer rate of xx and storage exceeding 128GB. This may not be in the very near future, however in 5-6 years, who knows. Would you be willing to upgrade to an even better quality transfer/encode with more features and lossless audio in multiple langauges and all extras in HD, possibly with abilities to play at higher resolutions than the current HD standard? If you are a true Movie enthusiast you would have to say yes, just like BR people expect HD-DVD fans to switch to BR.

The key to bringing down the price is to start producing in the quantities that movie distribution would need, as opposed to retail distribution as a storage media. I would imagine that this substantially greater market would cause the development of even better flash designed specifically for this purpose.

Josh F.

I think that it will take very long, long time before flash memory will become cheap and fast enough to be used for "buy-to-own" or "copy-to-my-stuff" mode of HD movie distribution.

So why don't they start in more conventional "rent-and-return" model of distribution first, and now? If this business goes well, then economy of scale will kick in and technical innovation will accelerate, then later, the day for "buy-to-own" or "copy-to-my-stuff" video distribution will come.

"rent-and-return" model of video business has no technical or economic huddle to overcome to be executed TODAY. Let's go easy way first and wait until hard way become easier.
.

Carefull, you've been posting here long enough to know that you shouldn't be skirting this thread's rules.A very vague accusation to make and it looks to me like you are the one that is trying to get personal (http://www.avsforum.com/avs-vb/showpost.php?p=13015669&postcount=39).


The consortium for HDM decided to push technology of optical media for the distribution of movies.Technically several different organizations for HD video formats chose optical media over the past several years.


Without a willingness to create a demand, as all these companies want to do, for a technology type, that particular technology remains as a niched curosity in company labs.It takes more than a desire for a product it also requires that the product be capable of being affordably mass produced. For instance a few companies really wanted to make a market for SED but they couldn't figure out how to do it.


I think Flash memory has had much quicker drop in price and increase in capacity than optical discs.Do you have evidence for this? It would be interesting to compare pre-recorded optical discs and flash memory for the last 20 years in terms of cost per MB/GB.


CD-R was first developed in 1988. In 20 years, it has gone from 640MB to 50GB with cost of 50GB media ~$30 per disc.That isn't a good comparison to make since I was referring to the selling of pre-recorded data.

The problem with just starting with rent and return is that most people would want to buy at least a handful of movies, if not build a collection. Would they want a format that is rental only? I can't speak for others here, but I know I wouldn't. That's another reason why the flash capability would probably have to be built into other devices rather than dedicated players.

The problem with just starting with rent and return is that most people would want to buy at least a handful of movies, if not build a collection. Would they want a format that is rental only? I can't speak for others here, but I know I wouldn't. That's another reason why the flash capability would probably have to be built into other devices rather than dedicated players.

May be so. I also think that majority of flash player will be integrated into HDTV itself, or DVD/HDM player, cable/sat/Internet set top box, etc. But there will be demand for standalone player, too. It depends on personal taste and situation (like you already owns good HDM player or have no plan to collect HD movies for the time being). Standalone player is also good starting point to test and demonstrate market potential of this flash memory video media and rent-and-return model.

But such detail doe not matter for now. Important thing is to develop concrete technology and system and start building business and infrastructure to implement HD movie on flash memory.
Not after few years, not next year, but TODAY! I hate 12 cm fragile, naked, optical disc so much!

Anyone interested in this business?

Just as an example of a large amount of media delivered on a Flash card now:

http://www.amazon.com/Franklin-Washington-Manual-Medical-Therapeutics/dp/B00008OOYL

Franklin has a flash card based medical manual:

"For more than 40 years, The Washington Manual of Medical Therapeutics has been the standard for authoritative guidance on current management of common medical disorders. Now, Franklin has brought the 30th Edition of this world-famous manual to your handheld device via its new Universal MultiMediaCard (MMC), enabling you to use this classic, portable reference for the concise, clear, and fast answers you need daily when treating your patients.Everything you need is included on the new Universal MMC - just plug and play. And since the MMC runs independently of the PDA's main memory, there is no worry about running out of memory.Even better, Franklin's new Universal MMC works with just about every recently-released PDA with an SD/MMC expansion slot, including: Franklin eBookMan; Palm M-500 series; Palm Tungsten; Handspring Treo 90; Handera 330; HP iPAQ; Cassiopeia Pocket PC; Toshiba Pocket PC; Dell Axim; and even Nokia's Communicator Phone! With the Universal MMC, Franklin makes your choice for critical information at the point-of-care the easiest yet!The 30th Edition of The Washington Manual of Medical Therapeutics has new topics, including the latest drug information along with accurate dosages, evidence-based guidelines for patient management, extensive coverage of inpatient therapeutics, updated oncology information including bone marrow transplantation and expanded coverage of fluid and electrolyte and ischemic heart disease management. "

Now this may not be as large in memory demand as a 1080p / TrueHD movie, but the method for delivery is there. It costs $27, and can play on a cell phone. The equivalent book costs $32, so the media can hardly be more expensive than the time tested print on paper approach. On paper, it is 780 pages. This is done not using flash, but cheaper ROM memory, delivered on a flash card form factor.

The target audience for the above is doctors who need a mobile resource when they don't have easy access to a computer, but this card can be read on any computer by way of the multi-card readers. Imagine that instead of a book, a company burned an MPEG4 file on the card. If the card is able to be read by any computer, it could be played on Mediacenter PC's, Set top boxes with USB / Flashcard adapters, etc. No need for a standalone player, all of these are available on just about every computer delivered. This is a process that most people understand now, since still cameras (and some video) operate using SD cards.

If books on this format are being sold and used in a niche (doctors) market by a small (Franklin) manufacturer, that speaks for a fairly sophisticated method for replication that doesn't require massive amounts of individual sales to turn a profit.

As far as this being a new "format", an HD movie would be MPEG4, I would think, that format is already being used and performs well, is a file format, not a disk format.

This would be a "purchase" item, it has all of the components that a purchase movie process would need:

1. A universal form factor (SD card)
2. No new player needed.
3. A universal file format (MPEG4)
4. Easy / less expensive replication (ROM burning has been around 40+years)
5. Much smaller form factor (easier to store/transport)
6. Already accepted by the general population (Still cameras).

Needed to make it work:

1. Large enough cards (See flash cards)
2. Low enough prices (ROM is always cheaper than RAM)

I think it could easily work, companies are doing it in media now.

My favorite thing about SD cards is that they fit in you wallet. I have a cool hard plastic sleeve that holds 2 and is the size of a credit card. I just need to find a durable SD to USB adaptor that is thin also.

USB flash drives seem to be the way to go now. You can put one on your keychain and it will work with almost any PC.

My favorite thing about SD cards is that they fit in you wallet. I have a cool hard plastic sleeve that holds 2 and is the size of a credit card. I just need to find a durable SD to USB adaptor that is thin also.

USB flash drives seem to be the way to go now. You can put one on your keychain and it will work with almost any PC.

the one for lexar is the smallest i have seen.