Welcome to the third week of the second contest. By participating in this thread you are agreeing to the following:

1- Nielsen/VideoScan gets a statistically significant amount of sales data. It does not get all data, but the amount it gets is far more than sufficient to be useful and statistically significant.
2- If the studios had aligned differently, things would be different. See, we all agree on that now. There is no need to discuss it ad nauseam.
3- If not for BOGOs and other sales, things would be different.
4- If Winn doesn't carry Super Tuesday, the world is going to pot.
5- Studios have made decisions based on factors confessed to and not confessed to. What those factors are is irrelevant to any possible on topic discussion in this thread.
6- People make predictions based on a wide variety of assumptions and for different reasons. Do not make fun of the person make fun of the pick, especially if it does not add up to 100%.
7- Saying the real contest is now Blu-ray vs. DVD and then posting the ratio for that is not witty or clever. Oh, it might have been when it was done the first time. That is in the past. All it does now is make the poster look petty.
8- We don't need format war posts in here. However, saying things like "This was a good week for Blu." or "I think this may be a trend where HD DVD gains back some market share." is not a format war post if you back it up and are using it as a basis for your prediction. Saying "HD-DUD is so dead!" or "Poo-ray is teh suxxor!" is a format war post, and, quite frankly, is very unimaginative.
9- While discussion of the various calendars is fascinating, this is not the place for it.
10- This list is likely to get longer as time goes by.

If you are unable to follow these rules, you will get a warning. If you break them again, I will put you on ignore. Actually, you will likely be asked by the mods to not post in the thread again.

With that out of the way, on to the fun stuff.

January is behind us and February is here. It brings with it an increase in the number of new releases. However, HD DVD continues its slow start with one title, Strauss: Die Fledermaus, from Opus Arte. It will still be a few weeks before HD DVD gets its next big title.

Blu-ray has a larger lineup this week. They get their timed exclusive on Invation from Warner this week (though some stores are breaking the street date on the HD DVD). Sony has a trio of titles the first season of the Damages TV show, Daddy Day Care and Monty Pythons Life of Brian. Wait, Life of Brian is out? Ok, gotta hurry up so I can head to the store.

There are also three neutral titles this week.

IMPORTANT NOTE: Please make your prediction with BD:HD even if you are going to predict HD DVD winning the week. Also, you are predicting the BD numbers, the HD DVD is implied. If I am confused, I will ask you for clarification if there is time before the deadline. Otherwise, you are stuck with how I read it.

The prediction period will close at 5 P.M Eastern time. That is 2 P.M. for those of you in Pacific time. This will get us ahead of the leaks. The numbers on February 8th will cover sales from January 28th-February 3rd, inclusive.

Nielsen contest entries for 02/08/2008

NAME BD:HD
tusloj 99:1
coneyparleg 94:6
sky69 93:7
Robert SawyerIII 91:9
30XS955 User 90:10
lvbeethoven 90:10
badboi 88:12
nyg 88:12
bplewis 87:13
JamesDFarrow 87:13
Newbie 87:13
gand41f 87:13
JAC6 87:13
carljanderson 87:13
manikin 86:14
tiger roach 86:14
Mel2 86:14
soremekun 86:14
frizshizzle 86:14
Woodshed 86:14
Calmus 86:14
William 86:14
torsteinvh 86:14
Bronco70 86:14
thebland 85:15
fitprod 85:15
MarekM 85:15
GP_23 85:15
Ktak 85:15
DarkAdept 85:15
Random Digital 85:15
spacejamz 85:15
MRMOTA 84:16
torse_jack 84:16
Icemage 84:16
klac 84:16
brianmonkey 84:16
swedcrip 84:16
dstewart 84:16
galperi1 84:16
TheSimplePanda 84:16
patrick99 84:16
Vyrance 84:16
Monty22001 84:16
Rob Tomlin 84:16
phansson 84:16
ottscay 84:16
Slirp 84:16
diatom 83:17
ifmracin 83:17
Aresca 83:17
chirpie 83:17
shamus 83:17
theforce8686 83:17
BuGsArEtAsTy 83:17
trondmm 83:17
TPigeon2006 83:17
bato 83:17
basano 83:17
Greg Kettell 83:17
cakefoo 83:17
Sketcha 83:17
elikhom 82:18
MASrules 82:18
dumbswede 82:18
dc_pilgrim 82:18
Will d s 82:18
LonePirate 82:18
bolaar 82:18
HuntzHD 82:18
jkwest 82:18
neillkrin 82:18
Jackietreehorn 82:18
John Ryder 82:18
dpags 82:18
eightninesuited 82:18
UxiSXRD 82:18
edgebsl 81:19
jling84 81:19
ADGrant 81:19
nickoakdl 81:19
rcutlass70 81:19
bluescreen 81:19
donricouga 81:19
ehomer 81:19
Rich Peterson 81:19
Richard Paul 81:19
Steve Schauer 81:19
Fran O'Hern 81:19
merlintl 81:19
tomsteeper 81:19
user friendly 81:19
MrPorterhouse 81:19
h0mi 81:19
rlsmith 81:19
Myxamatosis 81:19
dildatonr 81:19
opfreak 81:19
fredwi 80:20
Leviathan25 80:20
ts.enigma 80:20
Dreessen 80:20
caesartheboxer 80:20
nick_weasel 80:20
allargon 80:20
lomax 80:20
Jagt Mirage 80:20
Neo1965 80:20
theflux 80:20
Jiffylush 80:20
Loc13 80:20
iamitman 80:20
bommai 80:20
aaronwt 79:21
willyd 79:21
ICBM99 79:21
jmcq 79:21
crimsona 79:21
anttimonty 79:21
rcase13 79:21
Lbarber 79:21
SGRSBSKIER 79:21
Maxphoenix5 79:21
Bendertv 79:21
Jallopy 78:22
datobin1 78:22
bigdaveman 78:22
darinp2 78:22
AZHTGeek 78:22
mike179179 78:22
Jblacklow 77:23
d3code 77:23
Rezo 76:24
online 75:25
jwebb1970 70:30
Shmack 65:35
Namnuta 60:40
norliss 58:42


Again, nothing but predictions and the odd, friendly comment on other people's predictions.

HD DVD
Strauss: Die Fledermaus (Opus Arte)
King of California (First Look)
Garden (Warner Music Group)
Dispatch: Zimbabwe - Live at Madison Square

Blu-ray
Daddy Day Camp (Sony)
Monty Python's Life of Brian (Sony)
Damages: The Complete First Season (Sony)
Justin Timberlake: Live at Madison Square Garden (Sony BMG)
Invasion (Warner)
King of California (First Look)
Garden (Warner Music Group)
Dispatch: Zimbabwe - Live at Madison Square

Nielsen contest entries for 02/01/2008

NAME BD:HD
toon12 92:8
Robert SawyerIII 91:9
eskimo2176 91:9
thebland 90:10
badboi 89:11
shamus 89:11
dobyblue 89:11
galperi1 89:11
jmcq 89:11
bryansj 89:11
veniex 89:11
torse_jack 88:12
desmond212 88:12
jling84 88:12
lvbeethoven 88:12
MarekM 88:12
Earz 88:12
Mel2 88:12
theforce8686 88:12
splinters 88:12
ehomer 88:12
Winn 88:12
kampsy 88:12
fitprod 87:13
Icemage 87:13
manikin 87:13
nick_weasel 87:13
Aresca 87:13
chirpie 87:13
GP_23 87:13
JamesDFarrow 87:13
Newbie 87:13
rcutlass70 87:13
TheSimplePanda 87:13
gand41f 87:13
LonePirate 87:13
nyg 87:13
spacejamz 87:13
klac 86:14
Ktak 86:14
nickoakdl 86:14
swedcrip 86:14
DarkAdept 86:14
MASrules 86:14
Will d s 86:14
Fran O'Hern 86:14
user friendly 86:14
MrPorterhouse 86:14
jkcheng122 86:14
Joon TV 86:14
trondmm 86:14
jaewon 86:14
Azumi 86:14
d3code 86:14
ifmracin 85:15
darinp2 85:15
frizshizzle 85:15
Jblacklow 85:15
Bill0711 85:15
TPigeon2006 85:15
Assayer 85:15
lomax 85:15
patrick99 85:15
whoelse 85:15
Kemet 85:15
Random Digital 85:15
Jiffylush 85:15
jkwest 85:15
Monty22001 85:15
crimsona 85:15
soremekun 84:16
dstewart 84:16
Richard Paul 84:16
Steve Schauer 84:16
Vyrance 84:16
extra_hc 84:16
Greg Kettell 84:16
Jagt Mirage 84:16
Neo1965 84:16
neillkrin 84:16
Woodshed 84:16
Calmus 84:16
carljanderson 84:16
rlsmith 84:16
SGRSBSKIER 84:16
UxiSXRD 84:16
ottscay 84:16
Jackietreehorn 84:16
John Ryder 84:16



Weekly Stats

Week Picks Perfect High Actual Low Mean Median Mode
1 164 6 91* (8) [48] 83 60 (23) [110] 80.55 80.5 78
2 152 92 60 83.13 84 84

*Guess of 100% ignored as they are technically impossible due to truncating.

Ok, here is how this round is going to work. The game might end at any time. If we get up to 10 weeks, anyone who made 8 guesses will be prize eligible. The contest will automatically end at 15 weeks. Anyone with 12 guesses at that point is prize eligible. Anyone who made a full 15 guesses will have their worst guess removed for the final scoring for prizes.

Once again I am putting up a $10 gift certificate. Someone jokingly suggested donating a player as a prize and I am going to run with that idea. I will be accepting prize donations. If anyone has two copies of a movie and want to donate one or got a movie in a giveaway they just do not want, here is a way to get rid of them instead of trying to get a buck for them on eBay.

80:20

84:16

86:14

81:19

90:10

79/21

79:21

Here's hoping. :)

79:21

Here's hoping. :)

70:30 - upping your "hope" ante, ICBM99!

80:20

I'll try lowballing it again:

77:23

83:17

79:21

80:20 still 4:1

93:7

81:19

84:16

85:15

87:13.

80B/20hd

As much as I have visions of Life of Brian filling up every BD player in the known universe, I suspect the reality is that this will be a low volume week again. Lots of people are also distracted from watching movies because of that big event, something about a bowl.


http://ecx.images-amazon.com/images/I/513PYGN9NKL._AA240_.jpg:http://ecx.images-amazon.com/images/I/51PGA56E6WL._AA240_.jpg

(80:20)

80:20

Again, thank you Winn for your hard work.

79:21

84:16

80/20...

You people need to stop copying me, and reading my mind apparently as you posted first.

81:19

80:20

81:19

88:12

one more try

86:14

84:16

86/14

Comes down to whether or not all those HD DVD sales of The Invasion counted.

As you know, it was mistakenly released early, and thousands of them were sold at Fry's, Best Buy, etc.

But Amazon isn't shipping them until the proper date.

So I don't know if the early sales of The Invasion will count.

If they do.

It will be 78:22.

If not it will be 85:15

Probably anyway.

87:13

Brandon

99:1

87:13

84:16

Not really any releases on both sides.

I'll go with 81:19

85:15

82:18

88:12

85:15

82:18

83:17

86:14

82:18

82:18

83:17

As always, 87:13

83:17

Blu 87:13

James :)

85:15

As you know, it was mistakenly released early, and thousands of them were sold at Fry's, Best Buy, etc.


Where are you getting that they sold in the thousands?

80:20 Fourth time's the charm? :D

75:25

81:19

OK, so if i've entered all the numbers correctly into Excel, last week's sales were about 42k HD DVD and 190k Blu-ray. I doubt HD DVD sales can drop much further, but let's say it ends up at about 40k this week. Blu-ray is a bit hard to guess, though. As much as I love Brian, I don't think it's the kind of movie that'll sell in big numbers. I don't have high hopes for Invasion or Daddy Day Camp either. But Damages is a bit of a joker. Ultimately, I don't think this week's releases will sell more than last week's releases will drop off, so I think the Blu-ray sales will decrease for the fourth week in a row, and end up at about 185k

Which means that my guess is: 83:17

84:16

85:15

81:19

86:14

84:16

81:19

83:17

http://ecx.images-amazon.com/images/I/513PYGN9NKL._AA240_.jpg:http://ecx.images-amazon.com/images/I/51PGA56E6WL._AA240_.jpg

(80:20)
Nah. That says 80:20000000. ;)

Anyways, here's my guess.

http://www.eugbanana.com/files/Movies/HDDVD/RedMouse.jpg

85:15

84:16

84:16

I think it'll be the same as last.

http://tbn0.google.com/images?q=tbn:OLQFiExp1rim7M:http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/b/b3/Australian_State_Route_82.svg/640px-Australian_State_Route_82.svg.pnghttp://img.tfd.com/wn/99/6C7A7-eighteen.gif

86:14. a few stores that are selling the hd dvd version of invasion doesn't = thousands sold. hundreds maybe. Low volume week. Invasion will be lucky to sell 30,000. If BDA just released 1 or 2 big blockbuster catalog titles the ratio would peak to 90:10. Men in Black and the Blade trilogy would be huge right now. BDA could be going for the kill right now but are being way to conservative.

This game is really starting to become pointless when the vast majority of the guesses are within 3 points of each other. :(

This game is really starting to become pointless when the vast majority of the guesses are within 3 points of each other. :(

That's what I was thinking. With no chance of a spread and being so confined into such a very limited range there are very few possible guesses. Unless you want to be an extreme fanboy and say 99:1 or 55:45 :eek: (looks like it's not easy to be a HD DVD fanboy these days)

86:14

79:21

This game is really starting to become pointless when the vast majority of the guesses are within 3 points of each other. :(

I just thought I was getting really good!:D

BDA could be going for the kill right now but are being way to conservative.

Things just can't move that quickly. It's not like the big titles are already mastered and pressed, just sitting in a warehouse somewhere waiting for release. To be going for the kill right now, they would have had to start working on it last summer.

82:18

86:14

Comes down to whether or not all those HD DVD sales of The Invasion counted.

As you know, it was mistakenly released early, and thousands of them were sold at Fry's, Best Buy, etc.

But Amazon isn't shipping them until the proper date.

So I don't know if the early sales of The Invasion will count.

If they do.

It will be 78:22.

If not it will be 85:15

Probably anyway.

They will count. That one copy of a canceled BD movie that made it through retail got counted. Thus, you are entered as 78:22.


This game is really starting to become pointless when the vast majority of the guesses are within 3 points of each other. :(

There are 72 guesses so far. They range from 70 to 99. Counting only those with 5 or more guesses, they range from 79 to 87.

The range is tight right now, but should open up once HD DVD picks up the release schedule in mid February.

90 : 10
Hoping that it'll be the first time ever blu breaks into the 90's. Make it so!

83 17

78:22

83:17

there is the superbowl add . how much that will let people rush out to buy is anyones guess. and maybe that wont do much for these week numbers yet but for next week.

ah well. i got a feeling that hd stays at same level. but sales for bluray decrease so i go for 77% bluray vs 33% hddvd.

81:19

81-19

80:20

91:9

there is the superbowl add . how much that will let people rush out to buy is anyones guess. and maybe that wont do much for these week numbers yet but for next week.

ah well. i got a feeling that hd stays at same level. but sales for bluray decrease so i go for 77% bluray vs 33% hddvd.


Wouldn't that be 77/23 or 67/33?

I say 78/22

there is the superbowl add . how much that will let people rush out to buy is anyones guess. and maybe that wont do much for these week numbers yet but for next week.

I think the SB ad would impact the following Monday's sales, if at all. That would put it two weeks out as far as Nielsen numbers are concerned. We wouldn't see those figures for 2 friday's from now.

Brandon

80:20

85:15

79:21

87:13

enjoy
gandalf :o

82/18

85:15

Nothing game changing happening for this week. Some okay releases, but we continue to drift until something big happens one way or another ...

78:22

84:16

Cause it was close but but not quite last week and I don't have much time to contemlate this week. And there are more new releases and more hardware sales week over week for BD.

Blu-ray 82:18 HDDVD

82/18

there is the superbowl add . how much that will let people rush out to buy is anyones guess. and maybe that wont do much for these week numbers yet but for next week.

ah well. i got a feeling that hd stays at same level. but sales for bluray decrease so i go for 77% bluray vs 33% hddvd.

it seems that add at superbowl was not on national level, but only in some regions...., many people didn't even saw it, and those who saw it, talks that it aired in SD not HD res hmm

http://www.avsforum.com/avs-vb/showthread.php?t=988971

Marek

I should guess low again as my bad luck has obviously been responsible for BR's good numbers the least few weeks...

Anyways:

83:17

Maybe that will push BR in to the 90's.

79:21

82:18

81:19

81:19

83:17

86:14

60:40

18:1

Moderate titles this week for Blu-ray. Nothing of note on HD DVD. Little to no Invasion residuals to stabilize the numbers this week.

84 : 16

18:1

So, are you guessing a percentage breakdown of approximately 94.75:5.25? Or are you suggesting that some other format will grab the other 81 percent? :)

So, are you guessing a percentage breakdown of approximately 94.75:5.25? Or are you suggesting that some other format will grab the other 81 percent? :)

I figured 94.75:5.25 would have been a less obvious allusion to yesterday's events

102 entries so far.

84:16

81 : 19

The SuperBowl HD DVD ad fiasco effect won't count in last weeks numbers but it should affect the numbers in a positive way for Blu-Ray next week :)

I will predict 81-19 for this week. I will be very interested to see which titles make up the top 10.

80:20

83:17

82:18
exactly the same as last weeks results

I figured 94.75:5.25 would have been a less obvious allusion to yesterday's events

Right you are! :)

80:20

81:19

82:18

82:18

81:19

84:16

86:14

79 : 21

If you posted this morning you may want to repost your prediction.

Brandon

76 - 24

If you posted this morning you may want to repost your prediction.

Brandon

What happened today?

83:13

83:17

Sketcha... 83:13? Where's the other 4% going... VUDU? :)

What happened today?

http://www.avsforum.com/avs-vb/announcement.php?f=114&a=120

83:17

Sketcha... 83:13? Where's the other 4% going... VUDU? :)

http://www.avsforum.com/avs-vb/announcement.php?f=114&a=120

ah, thanks. I was wondering if yet another positive blu announcement happened.. Seems like every other day something good for blu :)


84:16 for me.

Let's call it 82:18

84:16

i got to stick up for my guess again ?

well i will say 80 : 20

83:17

Sketcha... 83:13? Where's the other 4% going... VUDU? :)
:D

Yep!

I figured after that Superbowl fiasco, HD DVD fans are going to be confused and frustrated and flock to downloads!

:)

O.K. so a guy can't come home from a hectic day at work, have his attitude adjustment and screw up his kindergarten math without getting chastised?

83:17

:)

122 entries. I am putting the list of guesses in this post so it is a bit easier for people to see if theirs was erased.

Nielsen contest entries for 02/08/2008

NAME BD:HD
tusloj 99:1
coneyparleg 94:6
sky69 93:7
Robert SawyerIII 91:9
30XS955 User 90:10
lvbeethoven 90:10
badboi 88:12
nyg 88:12
bplewis 87:13
JamesDFarrow 87:13
Newbie 87:13
gand41f 87:13
JAC6 87:13
carljanderson 87:13
manikin 86:14
tiger roach 86:14
Mel2 86:14
soremekun 86:14
frizshizzle 86:14
Woodshed 86:14
Calmus 86:14
William 86:14
torsteinvh 86:14
Bronco70 86:14
thebland 85:15
fitprod 85:15
GP_23 85:15
Ktak 85:15
DarkAdept 85:15
Random Digital 85:15
spacejamz 85:15
MRMOTA 84:16
torse_jack 84:16
Icemage 84:16
klac 84:16
brianmonkey 84:16
swedcrip 84:16
dstewart 84:16
TheSimplePanda 84:16
patrick99 84:16
Vyrance 84:16
Monty22001 84:16
Rob Tomlin 84:16
phansson 84:16
ottscay 84:16
Slirp 84:16
diatom 83:17
ifmracin 83:17
Aresca 83:17
chirpie 83:17
shamus 83:17
theforce8686 83:17
BuGsArEtAsTy 83:17
trondmm 83:17
TPigeon2006 83:17
bato 83:17
basano 83:17
Greg Kettell 83:17
cakefoo 83:17
Sketcha 83:17
elikhom 82:18
MASrules 82:18
dumbswede 82:18
dc_pilgrim 82:18
Will d s 82:18
LonePirate 82:18
bolaar 82:18
HuntzHD 82:18
jkwest 82:18
neillkrin 82:18
Jackietreehorn 82:18
dpags 82:18
eightninesuited 82:18
UxiSXRD 82:18
edgebsl 81:19
jling84 81:19
ADGrant 81:19
nickoakdl 81:19
rcutlass70 81:19
donricouga 81:19
ehomer 81:19
Richard Paul 81:19
Steve Schauer 81:19
merlintl 81:19
tomsteeper 81:19
user friendly 81:19
MrPorterhouse 81:19
h0mi 81:19
dildatonr 81:19
opfreak 81:19
fredwi 80:20
Leviathan25 80:20
ts.enigma 80:20
Dreessen 80:20
caesartheboxer 80:20
nick_weasel 80:20
allargon 80:20
lomax 80:20
Jagt Mirage 80:20
Neo1965 80:20
theflux 80:20
Jiffylush 80:20
Loc13 80:20
iamitman 80:20
aaronwt 79:21
willyd 79:21
ICBM99 79:21
jmcq 79:21
crimsona 79:21
anttimonty 79:21
SGRSBSKIER 79:21
Maxphoenix5 79:21
Jallopy 78:22
bigdaveman 78:22
AZHTGeek 78:22
mike179179 78:22
Jblacklow 77:23
d3code 77:23
Rezo 76:24
online 75:25
jwebb1970 70:30
Namnuta 60:40

81:19

85:15 :)

Marek

I guess my guess got lost in the crash.

So, here goes . . . 65:35 -- optimistic, but not crazy! :D

79:21

Looks like mine was lost.

81:19

84:16 Blu

79:21

81-19

Art Monk #81:19

82 Blue
18 HD

81:19

78:22

Based partially on the BOGO for HD DVD at Best Buy for a few titles and the releases for last week compared to previous weeks, I'll go for things moving toward HD DVD from last week's 82:18 and guess:

78:22

--Darin

90 minutes left and 135 entries. First post will not be updated until the prediction period ends in 90 minutes.

79:21

58:42

My first try: 80-20

I'll wrap things up with a 79-21.

No more predictions will be counted.

Weekly Stats

Week Picks Perfect High Actual Low Mean Median Mode
1 164 6 91* (8) [48] 83 60 (23) [110] 80.55 80.5 78
2 152 9 92 (10) [99] 82 60 (22) [44] 83.13 84 84
3 139 99 58 82.08 82 81

*Guess of 100% ignored as they are technically impossible due to truncating.

This is sure to spark a lot of spin:On the high-definition disc front, Lionsgate's "3:10 to Yuma" was the top-selling Blu-ray Disc for the week ending Feb. 3, while Paramount's "Transformers" was the top-selling HD DVD title.

The top-selling HD release for the week was Warner/BBC's "Planet Earth: The Complete Collection," available on both Blu-ray Disc and HD DVD.

http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/hr/content_display/home_entertainment/news/e3i461a44ce47dc584f2f34785db0f13911

Wow seems like its going to be low volume for both this week, I can not believe that a 4 month old title is the top seller for HD DVD!

Wow seems like its going to be low volume for both this week, I can not believe that a 4 month old title is the top seller for HD DVD!Transformers was one of the titles that was on BOGO at Best Buy.

--Darin

Wow seems like its going to be low volume for both this week, I can not believe that a 4 month old title is the top seller for HD DVD!

It was very nearly the top seller on HD DVD last week. It's got some legs, but yes volumes appear to be way down this week. I know I haven't bought a title in a few weeks.

Brandon

85:15 Bd

It was very nearly the top seller on HD DVD last week. It's got some legs, but yes volumes appear to be way down this week. I know I haven't bought a title in a few weeks.

Brandon

But really there has not been anything stellar on hd dvd since transformers.

But really there has not been anything stellar on hd dvd since transformers.

Let's not get this thread locked, please... Otherwise I will have to throw Bourne and Harry Potter at you. Anyhoo...

Transformers was one of the titles that was on BOGO at Best Buy.

--Darin

If there's a HD DVD BOGO at bestbuy, that could skew this week's numbers more red. Could be closer to 75:25 than the 80:20 I predicted. Combined highest as PE is indication of extremely low volume.

Both of these were near the top last week, so its not that surprising. Volume is probably low with so few new releases which could skew the ratio, but we'll see on Friday. Now that there are a few new titles, we should see volume increase a bit, as people may be starved for content.

There's a "prediction" at HTF saying 75:25 with 4 HD DVD in the top 20.

There's a "prediction" at HTF saying 75:25 with 4 HD DVD in the top 20.


That would really upset me seeing as I predicted 76:24 3 weeks in a row and just this week broke my pattern!

Brandon

There's a "prediction" at HTF saying 75:25 with 4 HD DVD in the top 20.

Top 20?

We don't get a list from HMM with 20 titles on it, do we?

Top 20?

We don't get a list from HMM with 20 titles on it, do we?

No, but subscribers get a lot more information than we do through HMM. I have seen a top 20 list before.

Based on this:

http://www.videobusiness.com/index.asp?layout=blog&blog_id=830000483&blog_post_id=1030021503
HD DVD jumped 33% to generate 51,878 in unit sales. BD fell about 17% to 147,180 units sold.It looks like Blu-ray had 73.9%. But, I think HMM rounds even though there was evidence in the past of them truncating the higher number and that the reported ratio will be 74:26.

--Darin

Transformers should be no surprise. A lot of HD-DVD players are being sold. When you buy an HD-DVD player you want a movie like Transformers to show it off. That's why Planet Earth has legs on both formats.

Transformers should be no surprise. A lot of HD-DVD players are being sold. When you buy an HD-DVD player you want a movie like Transformers to show it off. That's why Planet Earth has legs on both formats.It would be nice if we could see sales for Transformers from 2 weeks ago vs last week, since it was on BOGO at Best Buy last week.

--Darin

It looks like Blu-ray had 73.9%. But, I think HMM rounds even though there was evidence in the past of them truncating the higher number and that the reported ratio will be 74:26.


Interesting. I'm looking forward to the numbers. I can already foresee the format war problems with this thread, where some say a 3-1 ratio shows HD-DVD is improving and therefore isn't dead while others say that a 75-25 ratio is a blowout and would have been considered such 2 months ago, etc. I hope we can avoid that and discuss the numbers without the advocacy posts that will get th thread locked sooner rather than later.

Well a 75:25 ratio would show an improvemnet over the last few weeks so any improvement for either side is good.

Top 20?

We don't get a list from HMM with 20 titles on it, do we?

I believe this site has been accurate when leaking numbers in the past, so I'd assume their numbers are on point.

Brandon

hd dvd needed a BOGO at best buy to get the number in the 70's. without that the norm that IS 80% would've occurred again. next week it will be back in the 80's.

hd dvd needed a BOGO at best buy to get the number in the 70's. without that the norm that IS 80% would've occurred again. next week it will be back in the 80's.

:rolleyes:

hd dvd needed a BOGO at best buy to get the number in the 70's. without that the norm that IS 80% would've occurred again. next week it will be back in the 80's.

What does that say about all the BOGO sales for either format?
I thought I had picked the right ratio, but I forgot that I went with a lower number for HD DVD isntead of going with my first choice.:(

OK, so if i've entered all the numbers correctly into Excel, last week's sales were about 42k HD DVD and 190k Blu-ray.

Hmm. My estimates were a bit high it seems. If the numbers from the VB-article are correct, it means that last week's sales were 39k HD DVD and 172k Blu-ray.

I doubt HD DVD sales can drop much further, but let's say it ends up at about 40k this week.
[...]
so I think the Blu-ray sales will decrease for the fourth week in a row, and end up at about 185k

Well, this was pretty far off target. I completely missed the Best Buy BOGO, and Blu-ray fell more than I'd thought. Even with the adjusted numbers, my BD estimate is about 10% too high.

Oh well, there's always next week :)

wow even with all the HD DVD hardware price cuts they are still being outsold by 3-1!

wow even with all the HD DVD hardware price cuts they are still being outsold by 3-1!

:rolleyes:

If you're just going to make smileys, then please post elsewhere.

For those of us actually contributing, here's Grubert's take on an estimated breakdown of the 2008 figures so far:

Week BD HD DVD
01/06 301 162
01/13 322 57
01/20 200 41
01/27 177 39
02/03 147 52
Sales in thousands. There's not much accuracy there because we aren't given decimals.

As historic context, these were the sales in the first five weeks of 2007:


Week BD HD DVD
1/7/07 44,779 25,943
1/14/07 45,754 21,362
1/21/07 53,050 25,233
1/28/07 47,803 21,634
2/4/07 45,723 20,535
IMO, I think this gives us a pretty good picture of how the formats and HDM in general are trending.

Wow, sales in the whole HD market have increased more than threefold since same period last year, that's good.

If you're just going to make smileys, then please post elsewhere.

:rolleyes:

I was making a contribution equal to the contribution made by the posts I quoted.

You may not have thought that, but, of course, your subjective view of the relative contribution of my posts versus the contribution of the posts I quoted is of little or no concern to me. (Unless, perhaps, you can persuasively explain to me why the posts I quoted weren't just transparent attempts to bash HD DVD.)

Thanks for the rest of your post about the sales numbers, though. That is interesting.

The book is up:

Week: 74:26
YTD: 76:24
SI: 65:35

YTD down (as expected) but SI up again. Interesting.

Week ending February 3, 2008

3:10 to Yuma 100.00
Planet Earth 95.72
PotC At World's End 95.68
Saw IV 88.39
Transformers 88.24
300 87.09
Bourne Supremacy 84.00
Game Plan 83.90
Invasion 76.78
Ratatouille 69.25
xx Shooter 54.28
xx Serenity 52.95
xx Planet Earth 7.45
xx 300 2.67
xx Invasion 2.35

Every single HD DVD title in double digits was on a Best Buy BOGO. Looks like they're still the leader of HDM sales instead of Amazon. In other news: Planet Earth continues to dominate on Blu-ray, to the tune of 13:1.

Wow, sales in the whole HD market have increased more than threefold since same period last year, that's good.

I guess that's good, but the percent change from week to week is not:



Blu-ray and HD DVD Combined

2007 2008
Week 2 -5.10% -18.14%
Week 3 16.64% -36.41%
Week 4 -11.30% -10.37%
Week 5 -4.58% -7.87%

2007 2008
Comparing Week 5 to Week 1 -6.31% -57.02%


And then there's Blu-ray on its own...

Week 1 301
Week 2 322 6.98%
Week 3 200 -37.89%
Week 4 177 -11.50%
Week 5 147 -16.95%

-51.16%Not sure when this becomes a concern for studios and CE manufacturers, but the post holiday bump for HD media has not been sustained for long at all.

Post holiday bump? Post holiday (Q1) has always been the slowest time of the year for retail. Maybe sometimes it is worse then others but really the volume is almost negligable when compared to Q2-4.

I guess that's good, but the percent change from week to week is notFor completeness, you should include HD DVD as well. What was their drop from Week 1 to Week 5? It looks like a 311% drop off to me.
Not sure when this becomes a concern for studios and CE manufacturers, but the post holiday bump for HD media has not been sustained for long at all.If I was a manufacturer or studio, it's not the sustained sales that would bother me, it's the fact that one has fallen 6x as far as the other, percentage-wise. And has been pointed out before, the post-holiday drop is pretty normal for media sales, it's just that HDM was so tiny compared to this year.

For completeness, you should include HD DVD as well. What was their drop from Week 1 to Week 5? It looks like a 311% drop off to me.
If I was a manufacturer or studio, it's not the sustained sales that would bother me, it's the fact that one has fallen 6x as far as the other, percentage-wise. And has been pointed out before, the post-holiday drop is pretty normal for media sales, it's just that HDM was so tiny compared to this year.

Okay, so ignore the fact that Blu-ray software sales have fallen much more precipitously over the first month this year than last. Emphasize HD DVD's drop, which is hardly worthy of analysis considering the Warner announcement.

If you care to discuss the percent drops, please look at the whole picture. As for post-holiday bump, I was speaking of software sales for all of the new hardware.

Obviously, if Warner had not made their announcement when they did, things would look different. Compared to last year, Blu-ray is not taking off in the four weeks since CES.

For completeness, you should include HD DVD as well. What was their drop from Week 1 to Week 5? It looks like a 311% drop off to me.

For completeness...



HD DVD Percent Change 2008
Week 1 162
Week 2 57 -64.81%
Week 3 41 -28.07%
Week 4 39 -4.88%
Week 5 52 33.33%

-67.90%

Sorry, but you're pretending that there's nothing but the numbers. You can't treat the numbers as if they were in a vacuum, you have to examine the external factors that have an effect on this type of thing.

Compared to last year, the numbers were so low that they seem like they were entirely the same people buying. A lot's changed this time around. Last year, HD DVD standalones far outstripped Blu-ray standalones. This year, it's on even ground SI, and Blu-ray winning weeks and months. The PS3 was, admittedly, selling poorly in Jan 2007. Not so this January. Blu-ray title output was lower in Dec-Jan 2007. Not so this Dec-Jan.

No perfect picks this week.

AVS

Weekly Stats

Week Picks Perfect High Actual Low Mean Median Mode
1 164 6 91* (8) [48] 83 60 (23) [110] 80.55 80.5 78
2 152 9 92 (10) [99] 82 60 (22) [44] 83.13 84 84
3 139 0 99 (25) [135] 74 58 (16) [4] 82.08 82 81

*Guess of 100% ignored as they are technically impossible due to truncating.


Nielsen contest results for 02/08/2008

Correct Nielsen/VideoScan ratio : 74:24

NAME Guess Attempts Avg. Score
Rezo 76:24 1 2.00
Myxamatosis 81:19 3 2.33
iamitman 80:20 3 2.33
Lbarber 79:21 3 2.67
SGRSBSKIER 79:21 3 2.67
rlsmith 81:19 3 3.33
Jiffylush 80:20 3 3.33
anttimonty 79:21 3 3.33
rcase13 79:21 3 3.33
d3code 77:23 2 3.50
cakefoo 83:17 3 3.67
Sketcha 83:17 3 3.67
dpags 82:18 3 3.67
eightninesuited 82:18 3 3.67
UxiSXRD 82:18 3 3.67
h0mi 81:19 3 3.67
Jagt Mirage 80:20 3 3.67
Neo1965 80:20 3 3.67
theflux 80:20 3 3.67
Jblacklow 77:23 3 3.67
torsteinvh 86:14 3 4.00
ottscay 84:16 3 4.00
jkwest 82:18 3 4.00
neillkrin 82:18 3 4.00
MrPorterhouse 81:19 3 4.00
lomax 80:20 3 4.00
Winn 79:21 3 4.00
darinp2 78:22 3 4.00
Loc13 80:20 2 4.00
crimsona 79:21 2 4.00
AZHTGeek 78:22 1 4.00
mike179179 78:22 1 4.00
jwebb1970 70:30 1 4.00
phansson 84:16 3 4.33
bolaar 82:18 3 4.33
HuntzHD 82:18 3 4.33
Fran O'Hern 81:19 3 4.33
merlintl 81:19 3 4.33
tomsteeper 81:19 3 4.33
user friendly 81:19 3 4.33
allargon 80:20 3 4.33
jmcq 79:21 3 4.33
William 86:14 3 4.67
basano 83:17 3 4.67
Greg Kettell 83:17 3 4.67
LonePirate 82:18 3 4.67
bluescreen 81:19 3 4.67
donricouga 81:19 3 4.67
ehomer 81:19 3 4.67
Rich Peterson 81:19 3 4.67
Richard Paul 81:19 3 4.67
Steve Schauer 81:19 3 4.67
Calmus 86:14 3 5.00
bato 83:17 3 5.00
dc_pilgrim 82:18 3 5.00
Will d s 82:18 3 5.00
Jackietreehorn 82:18 2 5.00
John Ryder 82:18 2 5.00
Bendertv 79:21 1 5.00
Maxphoenix5 79:21 1 5.00
carljanderson 87:13 3 5.33
Woodshed 86:14 3 5.33
Random Digital 85:15 3 5.33
spacejamz 85:15 3 5.33
patrick99 84:16 3 5.33
Vyrance 84:16 3 5.33
TPigeon2006 83:17 3 5.33
elikhom 82:18 3 5.33
MASrules 82:18 3 5.33
ADGrant 81:19 3 5.33
nickoakdl 81:19 3 5.33
rcutlass70 81:19 3 5.33
nick_weasel 80:20 3 5.33
ICBM99 79:21 3 5.33
online 75:25 3 5.33
Slirp 84:16 2 5.50
caesartheboxer 80:20 3 5.67
bigdaveman 78:22 3 5.67
JAC6 87:13 3 6.00
dstewart 84:16 3 6.00
galperi1 84:16 3 6.00
TheSimplePanda 84:16 3 6.00
Aresca 83:17 3 6.00
chirpie 83:17 3 6.00
shamus 83:17 3 6.00
theforce8686 83:17 3 6.00
jling84 81:19 3 6.00
datobin1 78:22 3 6.00
Rob Tomlin 84:16 2 6.00
dumbswede 82:18 2 6.00
bommai 80:20 1 6.00
gand41f 87:13 3 6.33
DarkAdept 85:15 3 6.33
brianmonkey 84:16 3 6.33
swedcrip 84:16 3 6.33
Dreessen 80:20 3 6.33
Monty22001 84:16 2 6.50
BuGsArEtAsTy 83:17 2 6.50
trondmm 83:17 2 6.50
nyg 88:12 3 6.67
frizshizzle 86:14 3 6.67
GP_23 85:15 3 6.67
Ktak 85:15 3 6.67
Icemage 84:16 3 6.67
klac 84:16 3 6.67
Mel2 86:14 3 7.00
soremekun 86:14 3 7.00
MarekM 85:15 3 7.00
ifmracin 83:17 3 7.00
fredwi 80:20 3 7.00
Leviathan25 80:20 3 7.00
ts.enigma 80:20 3 7.00
dildatonr 81:19 1 7.00
opfreak 81:19 1 7.00
JamesDFarrow 87:13 3 7.33
Newbie 87:13 3 7.33
manikin 86:14 3 7.33
edgebsl 81:19 3 7.33
willyd 79:21 3 7.67
bplewis 87:13 3 8.00
fitprod 85:15 3 8.00
torse_jack 84:16 3 8.00
aaronwt 79:21 3 8.33
tiger roach 86:14 2 8.50
badboi 88:12 3 8.67
thebland 85:15 3 8.67
lvbeethoven 90:10 3 9.00
diatom 83:17 3 9.00
Jallopy 78:22 3 9.67
Robert SawyerIII 91:9 3 11.33
MRMOTA 84:16 2 11.50
30XS955 User 90:10 2 12.00
Bronco70 86:14 1 12.00
norliss 58:42 2 14.00
Namnuta 60:40 1 14.00
Shmack 65:35 3 14.67
sky69 93:7 1 19.00
coneyparleg 94:6 1 20.00
tusloj 99:1 1 25.00

hd dvd needed a BOGO at best buy to get the number in the 70's. without that the norm that IS 80% would've occurred again. next week it will be back in the 80's.

Let's not take it there.

Brandon

Every single HD DVD title in double digits was on a Best Buy BOGO. Looks like they're still the leader of HDM sales instead of Amazon.

This cannot be emphasized enough.

I guess that's good, but the percent change from week to week is not:


Now go check DVDs :)

Brandon

How about a prize for mediocricy? I don't want to be the best (I'm too modest) or the worst (that's too easy). It's tough to stay right in the middle.

122 entries. I am putting the list of guesses in this post so it is a bit easier for people to see if theirs was erased.

Is there a reason why entries are erased? I've posted last two weeks - just the entry no commentry and both appear to be deleted?

The Best Buy BOGO really gave HD DVD an unexpected boost. It will be interesting to see what the next two week's numbers look like.

Now go check DVDs :)



Happily. Are the actual weekly numbers published or estimated somewhere?

Believe it or not, I'm not trying to make a case against HD media or Blu-ray here. I find stats to be interesting, and a market such as this, that is still seeming to be in infant status, is not growing as much as many in our little world here seem to think.

Truth is, I expected to see stronger sustained sales due to all of the increased players out there. I guess I was mistaken. If I could find the actual DVD volumes, then I would have a stronger point of reference.

As for now, the increased numbers the first two weeks of the year shows that there was a bump, but this did not sustain as well as last year. Is everyone who has replied refuting that?

Post holiday bump? Post holiday (Q1) has always been the slowest time of the year for retail. Maybe sometimes it is worse then others but really the volume is almost negligable when compared to Q2-4.

That's my take on it. I am pleasantly surprised to see how much higher than last year.

Is there a reason why entries are erased? I've posted last two weeks - just the entry no commentry and both appear to be deleted?There was a forum crash a couple days ago and a bunch of posts were lost.

Correct Nielsen/VideoScan ratio : 74:24
HD VMD breaks in with 2%?


Anyways, here's my guess.

http://www.eugbanana.com/files/Movies/HDDVD/RedMouse.jpg
Bah. Not even close.

I should have used my last week's guess of 78:22 for this week, and vice versa. :p

Correct Nielsen/VideoScan ratio : 74:24

[/code]

Not trying to be a bother, but where is the other 2%?:D

Is there a reason why entries are erased? I've posted last two weeks - just the entry no commentry and both appear to be deleted?

I have your Feb 1 guess (79-21). Your guess this week, however, must have been eaten by the forum crash.

If the contest goes long enough, I will discount missing this week as part of being prize eligible.

Not trying to be a bother, but where is the other 2%?:D

Huh. I need to let Microsoft know there is a bug in Excel.

Not trying to be a bother, but where is the other 2%?:D

Questioning the mathematics ability of the OP is uncalled for.




:p

The book is up:

Week: 74:26
YTD: 76:24
SI: 65:35

YTD down (as expected) but SI up again. Interesting.
Makes sense since the week is higher than the SI. SI was probably teetering a few decimal places down and they may have rounded up.

ex. Was 64.49:35.51 i.e. 64:36

Now 64.51:35.49 i.e. 65:35


Who knows

The other 2% are obviously HD downloads on Apple TV. ;)

I have your Feb 1 guess (79-21). Your guess this week, however, must have been eaten by the forum crash.

If the contest goes long enough, I will discount missing this week as part of being prize eligible.

Thanks - was suspecting conspiracy as I was close this week guessed 77:23 ;)

On the is it (or not) a clearance front regarding the recent HD DVD BOGO and 50% off sales, it's interesting to note that Universal just canceled the non-combo reissues of Dazed and Confused and Land of the Dead.

http://www.highdefdigest.com/news/show/Universal/Street_Date_Changes/Universal_Cancels_Dazed_&_Confused,_Land_of_the_Dead_HD_DVD_Re-Issues/1444

Week ending February 3, 2008

3:10 to Yuma 100.00
Planet Earth 95.72
PotC At World's End 95.68
Saw IV 88.39
Transformers 88.24
300 87.09
Bourne Supremacy 84.00
Game Plan 83.90
Invasion 76.78
Ratatouille 69.25
xx Shooter 54.28
xx Serenity 52.95
xx Planet Earth 7.45
xx 300 2.67
xx Invasion 2.35

Every single HD DVD title in double digits was on a Best Buy BOGO. Looks like they're still the leader of HDM sales instead of Amazon. In other news: Planet Earth continues to dominate on Blu-ray, to the tune of 13:1.

Excellent week. Great to see the trend with SI as well:)

Excellent week. Great to see the trend with SI as well:)
And the YTD too!:D

Holy cow, how did Planet Earth, which at one point was selling better in HD-DVD than in Blu-ray, all of a sudden start selling so much better on Blu-ray?

These numbers definitely show that HD-DVD's good week had a lot to do with Best Buy's BOGO. It seems that Best Buy BOGOs shift the numbers a lot more than Amazon BOGOs.

82:18

-splints

Well, at least I was only off by 4 this time...

Ah well, on to next week!

thanks winn

87:13.

Ugh. A terrible prediction on my part.

Thanks for the calculations of HDM sales relative to last year. I only skimmed the posts, but my layperson view is that the Blu-Ray sales are headed in the right direction and should only improve as the year progresses and the releases get better. (And more players and PS3s are sold, etc.)

Holy cow, how did Planet Earth, which at one point was selling better in HD-DVD than in Blu-ray, all of a sudden start selling so much better on Blu-ray?

These numbers definitely show that HD-DVD's good week had a lot to do with Best Buy's BOGO. It seems that Best Buy BOGOs shift the numbers a lot more than Amazon BOGOs.

Yeah, there was a report out that said Best Buy was by far the largest seller of HDM.

Yeah, there was a report out that said Best Buy was by far the largest seller of HDM.

I knew it was the largest, just didn't know that it was that much bigger than the rest. It looks like Amazon BOGOs generally shift things 2-3 points, and BB BOGOs shift things about 3 times that. Based on the predictions, it looks like a lot of people (myself included) underestimated the effect that BB would have. It definitely helped HD-DVD pull out a pretty decent week.

I knew it was the largest, just didn't know that it was that much bigger than the rest. It looks like Amazon BOGOs generally shift things 2-3 points, and BB BOGOs shift things about 3 times that. Based on the predictions, it looks like a lot of people (myself included) underestimated the effect that BB would have. It definitely helped HD-DVD pull out a pretty decent week.

HD DVD is going to continue these Bogos at various retailers in the weeks to come. Either Sony is going to have one as well, or I am going to have to readjust my scores.

Some people used to say any week the ratio was less than 2:1 was a good week for HD DVD. Now I think any week the ratio is less than 3:1 is good.

I am willing to bet that Toshiba (who is no longer try to win, but just survive and be viable) would be willing to settle for a 25% market share right now. Heck, that's higher than the PS3 or the Mac OS market share!:D

Dedicated Blu-ray Disc player sales, which omit video game consoles, represented 65 percent of unit volume share during the period and 69 percent of retail sales dollars, according to the leaked data. HD DVD players accounted for 28 percent of hardware unit sales and 14 percent of overall HD disc retail dollars. The remainder can be attributed to combo player sales share at 6 percent unit sales and 17 percent dollar share.


NPD numbers reflect retail point of sales data gathered from its panel of reporting dealers.


http://www.twice.com/article/CA6530692.html

Combo players are up to 6% and 17% of total dollars? Wow, that is like a 300 to 500% increase from a month ago whne they were at 1 or 2%.

Combo players are up to 6% and 17% of total dollars? Wow, that is like a 300 to 500% increase from a month ago whne they were at 1 or 2%.

It makes perfect sense that sales of combo players would rise with sales of Blu-ray players. People who weren't willing to abandon their HD DVD collection, but wanted to get into Blu-ray would naturally buy one.

Well there went my average

It makes perfect sense that sales of combo players would rise with sales of Blu-ray players. People who weren't willing to abandon their HD DVD collection, but wanted to get into Blu-ray would naturally buy one.
They should just buy a PS3 which is the only real Blu-ray player. All the rest are stripped down beta versions. They are OK for early adopters that are willing to skip all the features, and then buy a new player in a year, but for the average person, they are not ready for prime time.
The combo players also have too many issues with Fox titles and will never be profile 2.0 compatible.

They should just buy a PS3 which is the only real Blu-ray player. All the rest are stripped down beta versions. They are OK for early adopters that are willing to skip all the features, and then buy a new player in a year, but for the average person, they are not ready for prime time.
The combo players also have too many issues with Fox titles and will never be profile 2.0 compatible.

The whole point of HDM is HD video and HD sound, which profile 1 players do perfectly. Most people don't care about crap like PnP and the ability to vote in online polls.

The whole point of HDM is HD video and HD sound, which profile 1 players do perfectly. Most people don't care about crap like PnP and the ability to vote in online polls.

Explain that to the Blu-ray studios and BD CEs. They must think it IS important or they wouldn't be developing the discs or players for the "crap" you mentioned.

Explain that to the Blu-ray studios and BD CEs. They must think it IS important or they wouldn't be developing the discs or players for the "crap" you mentioned.
I believe that extras are another carrot to lure the uncommitted to HDM and lead some to double dip. As we know, the majority of the modern world still lack the ability to distinguish the differences in A/V quality, but they can tell that their trusty, $30 DVD player cannot do PiP and all the other crap!

Hey, if it helps with mass adoption, I'm all for it, but if I could save a few dollars per disc, then I would rather just have the feature.

The whole point of HDM is HD video and HD sound, which profile 1 players do perfectly. Most people don't care about crap like PnP and the ability to vote in online polls.

If HDM is to survive it needs to offer something more...hence on-line connectivity. Being able to watch current trailers instead of old static ones is just one small example. Think about it. You buy The Dark Knight and it will let you know about the progress of Batman 3, and let you see the trailer as well as various "making of" videos when they are ready. That of course is only scratching the surface.

If all there is to HDM is PQ and AQ, the it will fail like DVD-A and SACD. If studios get creative and push the limit with on-line connectivity, the it will be a huge success.

The whole point of HDM is HD video and HD sound, which profile 1 players do perfectly. Most people don't care about crap like PnP and the ability to vote in online polls.
Don't worry, most people have the PS3 so they are good to go. BTW, I remember when people say the same about ringtones, games, photos and video in cell phones, "most people don't care about crap like that".