Found this on IMDB news this morning.

People Happy With DVD, Not Likely To Switch to Hi-Def, Says Study

Relatively few consumers are planning to make the transition from DVDs to high-definition HD DVD or Blu-ray, according to a survey by NPD Group. The researchers said that among owners of HDTV sets, seven out of 10 say they see no need to purchase high-definition players, maintaining that they are satisfied with the quality of their current players. "one of the main challenges for the next-generation" format, NPD Group senior entertainment industry analyst Russ Crupnick told Bloomberg News, "is you have a product out there that is pretty darn good in consumers' eyes."

I guess for us cinephiles HD movies are the greatest thing since progress peaked with frozen pizza, but I always had an inkling the format war would take a bit longer simply because people felt DVD was good enough.

Most of those people with HDTV sets are watching stretched analog SD for their TV viewing. Small wonder they think their DVDs look great. In comparison they do!

My first impulse is to say with all the BS circulating what do you expect. But my second thought is how did they ask the question and how valid is the survey. It is so easy to warp a survey result if you have a outcome you want to find.

Even if the survey is true once the FUD clears people will be happy to upgrade once they see how good it looks. I want quality now though, everyone else can take as much time as they want.

I can totally understand this. DVD has been out for a while now. its quality has improved greatly and it looks better then anything on cable in my house with the exception of the hd channels of which its about identical to half the channels. HDM while great is equal to the other hd channels. But in five years when hdm quality outperforms all the hdm channels then people will really want it. HDTV is so new that people dont require the format at this time as they are still getting the wow factor with the new technology. when it wears off then they will change their minds and want better quality.

I love Twister on sd dvd but it looks like crap. when a new hd version hits i fully expect to pick that title up as the quality will be much improved.

On a smaller screen and a lot of tv's upconvert , I can see why thats good enough for a lot of people , ...
Be great if they get "with it" and go hi-def though ...lol
Interesting post on the forums with the poll about when we bought our hd players, shows pretty clearly that most were early adopters , (fanatics if you will)!!
Hope this gets off the ground as it would be sad to see hd be just another nitch...

Bob

On a 42" or 50" screen, at typical American living room distances, DVD still looks very good.

I have a 58" set and from 11' away a good DVD transfer is quite acceptable. Acceptable enough that it doesn't detract from the experience of viewing the movie.

There is no doubt that HDM is better and I think most people could easily tell the difference in an A/B comparison. However being able to see the difference and be willing to pay for that difference are not the same thing.

I firmly believe HDM is destined for Laserdisc niche, not mass market replacement, and my enthusiasm for it as been dampened considerably since I got my PS3 last summer.

Most people happy with anything won't change.... No surprise... I am sure many VHS owners were happy with tape when DVD hit the scene..

You make a great point because I was an early adopter of DVD as well, and a lot of people stuck with VHS into late 2000. When DVD player prices dropped the format adoption went quicker, I think with HD-DVD players being cheap and maybe BR coming down in a year or so we may see a wider adoption, but I have a lot of tech crazy friends and even they are refusing to adopt either HD format, yet they own 1080P tv's.

Strange world we live in.

People happy with 19" color crt, not likely to switch to HDTV
People happy with white bread, not likely to switch to wheat...
People happy with paper maps, not likely to switch to gps...
People happy with tie shoes, not likely to switch to loafers:):)
I could do this all day...:D:D

...I am sure many VHS owners were happy with tape when DVD hit the scene..

The is spot on. Most people are ignorantly bliss, complacent and/or comfortable with what they have, know and understand. Once we have one standard HDM format it will be an easier change over that VHS to DVD was.

Most people happy with anything won't change.... No surprise... I am sure many VHS owners were happy with tape when DVD hit the scene..

DVD offered many advantages over VHS.

Smaller media.
Smaller cases.
Thinner cases.
No re-winding.
No fast forwarding.
Instant scene selection/jump.
Special Features.
No more tape degradation.
Multi-language on one disc.
Subtitles.
Better picture.
Better sound.
Compatible with almost every single TV set.

vs.

Better picture. (sometimes)
Better sound. (sometimes)
Only works on HDTV sets and really you need large 1080p sets to see the massive difference.
(and Internet based interactive special features with HD-DVD)

There is no comparison. When you spend $400+ on a 1.1 spec Blu-ray player (game console) you get very little bang for your buck when you try to compare to VHS vs. DVD.

With $99 players and a $4-$5 premium on discs with backwards compatibility with DVD there is a shot at moving everyone into the HDM arena. Until then, it will remain out of demand and out of reach for most consumers.

More people are buying Apple iPhones than are buying Blu-ray players/PS3s. It's more money than both. But it's in-demand. People are willing to shell out money for it. People aren't willing to shell out money for another gaming console or an overpriced media player.

It's all about the price point. What you pay vs. what you get for your money. Blu-ray is not there. HD-DVD is .. but they have no studio support anymore and everyone knows it.

DVD offered many advantages over VHS.

Smaller media.
Smaller cases.
Thinner cases.
No re-winding.
No fast forwarding.
Instant scene selection/jump.
Special Features.
No more tape degradation.
Multi-language on one disc.
Subtitles.
Better picture.
Better sound.
Compatible with almost every single TV set.

vs.

Better picture. (sometimes)
Better sound. (sometimes)
Only works on HDTV sets and really you need large 1080p sets to see the massive difference.
(and Internet based interactive special features with HD-DVD)

There is no comparison. When you spend $400+ on a 1.1 spec Blu-ray player (game console) you get very little bang for your buck when you try to compare to VHS vs. DVD.

With $99 players and a $4-$5 premium on discs with backwards compatibility with DVD there is a shot at moving everyone into the HDM arena. Until then, it will remain out of demand and out of reach for most consumers.

More people are buying Apple iPhones than are buying Blu-ray players/PS3s. It's more money than both. But it's in-demand. People are willing to shell out money for it. People aren't willing to shell out money for another gaming console or an overpriced media player.

It's all about the price point. What you pay vs. what you get for your money. Blu-ray is not there. HD-DVD is .. but they have no studio support anymore and everyone knows it.


Just about 100% agree with all the above points.

USA Today had a story yesterday about the HDM struggles:
http://www.usatoday.com/tech/products/2008-02-04-blu-ray-format-war_N.htm

I was happy with my laser discs , mad when rumor of dvd came about...
then happy with dvd , but hd is anticipated and bought into in my house ...
Let the games begin !!!
Bob

DVD offered many advantages over VHS.

Smaller media.
Smaller cases.
Thinner cases.
No re-winding.
No fast forwarding.
Instant scene selection/jump.
Special Features.
No more tape degradation.
Multi-language on one disc.
Subtitles.
Better picture.
Better sound.
Compatible with almost every single TV set.

vs.

Better picture. (sometimes)
Better sound. (sometimes)
Only works on HDTV sets and really you need large 1080p sets to see the massive difference.
(and Internet based interactive special features with HD-DVD)

There is no comparison. When you spend $400+ on a 1.1 spec Blu-ray player (game console) you get very little bang for your buck when you try to compare to VHS vs. DVD.

With $99 players and a $4-$5 premium on discs with backwards compatibility with DVD there is a shot at moving everyone into the HDM arena. Until then, it will remain out of demand and out of reach for most consumers.

More people are buying Apple iPhones than are buying Blu-ray players/PS3s. It's more money than both. But it's in-demand. People are willing to shell out money for it. People aren't willing to shell out money for another gaming console or an overpriced media player.

It's all about the price point. What you pay vs. what you get for your money. Blu-ray is not there. HD-DVD is .. but they have no studio support anymore and everyone knows it.

You are mixing demand with pricing. Demand will cause folks to look less critically at pricing. The iPhone is an excellent example of that. Smart phones are available for $99 but they are not as slick as the $400 iPhone.. and the iPhone is selling well..

I agree with you that demand drives sales and HD media simply doesn't have the demand. But you forget that with VHS, folks were also able to record their favorite shows. DVD offered none of that...and there was the problem with a quick DVD adoption. It improved the picture, had a smaller package, and was very slick but lacked a critical feature even more important to most. So VHS held on for a long time after DVD hit the scene. It wasn't until a few years ago that DVD sales finally overcame VHS sales.

Movies drive player sales... HD DVD is on the losing end of new releases, folks see that player prices are being cut to fire sale prices and even the XBOX add ON was yet cut again. No one wants to buy into a format on the edge of death (HD DVD) but Blu Ray is still a bit pricey... Until Blu Ray bereaks the $200 price point, it's sales will be tepid. But after they reach $199, the players will sell at a pace HD DVD dreamed of when they got to that price point.

dvd could not record right off ..
by the way you could buy a laser disc recorder but it was serious money ...

They will be forced to switch in time. The studios will find a way.

I'm hoping people percieve hd-dvd as a complete working format with a lot of value.
not as a dying format , the studios being neutral would possibly end this duel rather
quickly ...!!
but the perseption hd-dvd is dead already wil surely kill it ...
my perseption is to buy the player with the best quality and cost ....
forget about studio manipulation , as they will want to sell product , they just might
"have" to be neutral some day ...
we're not in kansas any more toto !!
peace out ........

bob

DVD has been out for a while now. its quality has improved greatly and it looks better then anything on cable in my house with the exception of the hd channels....

With my service, I think SD DVD looks better than most of the HD channels....too many compression artifacts!

There is no compelling reason for the average person to go HDM and rebuy all of their movies. That also makes HDDVD a really good option because of the price of players. HDM will never be DVD, though.It will be LD and LD was really good to A/V enthusiasts.

Eventually all the CE's making BD players will simply drop DVD-only. Sooner or later everyone buying a new player will be getting BDs.. So in the long run, it doesn't really matter.

I'm hoping people percieve hd-dvd as a complete working format with a lot of value.
not as a dying format , the studios being neutral would possibly end this duel rather
quickly ...!!
but the perseption hd-dvd is dead already wil surely kill it ...
my perseption is to buy the player with the best quality and cost ....
forget about studio manipulation , as they will want to sell product , they just might
"have" to be neutral some day ...
we're not in kansas any more toto !!
peace out ........

bob

Again....people who own HD DVD don't seem to be buying much software and this seems to be the case for months and months and months........and months.....you know studios see this and there's no incentive for them to want to switch or go neutral etc....I'm pretty sure their bean counters are eagerly trying to go where the money is (BD) and are making plans to go toward the money maker, not the company who has many players and next to know sales supporting it.

Eventually all the CE's making BD players will simply drop DVD-only. Sooner or later everyone buying a new player will be getting BDs.. So in the long run, it doesn't really matter.

Exactly.

Eventually all the CE's making BD players will simply drop DVD-only. Sooner or later everyone buying a new player will be getting BDs.. So in the long run, it doesn't really matter.

People will buy the cheaper DVD release for a long time to come.

Most folks don't need expensive HDM with the seating distance and screen size used.

Eventually all the CE's making BD players will simply drop DVD-only. Sooner or later everyone buying a new player will be getting BDs.. So in the long run, it doesn't really matter.

If sufficient demand for BD is created then maybe the movie industry phase out production of sd dvd, but don't you think consumers can find other ways to get that video content if content owners refuse to feed all those dvd players in the wild?

Not only cable and satellite and all the new download services but DVD's can be purchased on a street corner. Because the legitimate sources of DVD are so well fed most people don't feel the need to search out other sources but if legitimate sources get shut off...

Will China and the rest of Asia play along nicely with the dvd cutoff plan?

Eventually all the CE's making BD players will simply drop DVD-only. Sooner or later everyone buying a new player will be getting BDs.. So in the long run, it doesn't really matter.
I've long thought that the cut rate prices on dvds we've been seeing is the "final clearance sale". The studios are trying to wring that last penny out of sd before the big jump just as they did with VHS.

Eventually all the CE's making BD players will simply drop DVD-only. Sooner or later everyone buying a new player will be getting BDs.. So in the long run, it doesn't really matter.
I doubt it. There will always (or at least for a very long time) be cheap DVD players out there. Higher end companies may stop, but lesser companies will still make DVD players.
J

I've long thought that the cut rate prices on dvds we've been seeing is the "final clearance sale". The studios are trying to wring that last penny out of sd before the big jump just as they did with VHS.


HIGHLY doubtful.

I've long thought that the cut rate prices on dvds we've been seeing is the "final clearance sale". The studios are trying to wring that last penny out of sd before the big jump just as they did with VHS.

The cut rate prices on DVDs are mostly on catalog titles. DVDs cost almost nothing to press, why wouldn't they put out bargin bin $5 DVDs, it's free money.

Getting back on topic, people switched from VHS to DVD mostly for convince. Instead of some clunky tape that had to be rewinded they could have a shiny little disc that took up less space and they could skip around when playing it back. BD is no more convenient than DVD and in many ways less convenient because players are less common. MOST people don't really care about the difference between HD and DVD, or are at least not willing to pay for it. DVD is good enough, just like itunes music is good enough. Instead of rebuying all their movies at $30 a pop many choose to spend that money on other toys. I used to work for a HT dealer and I always told my guys, our competition isn't best buy, it's the guy selling boats and the guy selling corvettes. No one NEEDS HD, it's a hobby.

Circa 1978 : No one needs color tv, black and white is fine...
see how funny that sounds...now.

Eventually all the CE's making BD players will simply drop DVD-only. Sooner or later everyone buying a new player will be getting BDs.. So in the long run, it doesn't really matter.

If the market for BD catches on and goes mainstream and if the royalty payments to the BD association go way down. Basicly all dvd players sold now are progressive scan, so you could make this assumption, but it is a long way off.

if i take my dutch friends as an example.

they already have a ps3 and they would like to buy more titles. they have around 6 titles each. the difference is.

they buy around 8 dvds a month. and like 1 or 0 blurays.

why? not that they do not like it. but because of the very high prices.

the only titles they buy are the blockbuster ones. like pirates, spiderman. that kind of stuff.

so if the companies price the bluray movies same like dvd. you can bet they will rather buy the bluray instead of dvd.

but 30 euro ( 38 usa dollars ) for 1 movie is just an outrage. except for a movie that is remastered like blade runner or close encounters of third kind. those are alright for 30 euro.

but a new movies that are already shot in HD, why on earth should we pay so much more it. 20 euro is nice enough price for those. and 25 euro for a double disc feature.

and catalog tiles non remastered from 15 euro till 20 euro. depending on quality and extras

Yes the pricing is really a big problem.

When the pricing goes down to buy 2 for 14$ I dont really think so much about it just find 2 that seems fine and go my way.

40$ for a single movie is pushing it.

There is no compelling reason for the average person to go HDM and rebuy all of their movies. That also makes HDDVD a really good option because of the price of players. HDM will never be DVD, though.It will be LD and LD was really good to A/V enthusiasts.


I agree...also by the time the so called mass public is ready to take on HD (better pray is not 5 years from today :)), download quality will be up to par with he current HD hard media and you can make your own guess which will be adopted...there's too much sour grapes going on today's HD world and bad news seems to be king..HD needed the HD DVD faithfulls for at least promotional boost, and now we know how many if not most feel about this HD monopolistic fiasco.

The pricing is sort of a problem. I say sort of as we all would like mass adoption over night... but it doesn't work that way. HD DVD gave away players and still highly subsidizes the current models, but no one cares. HD Media is not a 'must have' for the majority of the product.

Blu ray is the better format in every respect. When the format is finalized, it will be everything HD DVD already is but better. As an enthusiast, I want the best format even if it costs more initially and takes longer for mass adoption. It will be adopted by the public, VOD, etc taking over is a pipe dream by those who dislike Blu Ray. HD DVD is based on being as backwards compatible as possible rather than fully new and inventive. Likely the next XBOX platform will be Blu Ray as well. Blu Ray is built from the ground up with the future in mind. It is simply better and more forward thinking.

So, in the next year or so, Blu Ray will be at the $200 price point, Universal and Paramount will be done with HD DVD and all will be good in the Home THeater world for enthusiasts of all budgets.

The pricing is sort of a problem. I say sort of as we all would like mass adoption over night... but it doesn't work that way. HD DVD gave away players and still highly subsidizes the current models, but no one cares. HD Media is not a 'must have' for the majority of the product.

Blu ray is the better format in every respect. When the format is finalized, it will be everything HD DVD already is but better. As an enthusiast, I want the best format even if it costs more initially and takes longer for mass adoption. It will be adopted by the public, VOD, etc taking over is a pipe dream by those who dislike Blu Ray. HD DVD is based on being as backwards compatible as possible rather than fully new and inventive. Likely the next XBOX platform will be Blu Ray as well. Blu Ray is built from the ground up with the future in mind. It is simply better and more forward thinking.

So, in the next year or so, Blu Ray will be at the $200 price point, Universal and Paramount will be done with HD DVD and all will be good in the Home THeater world for enthusiasts of all budgets.


a pipe dream..lol...oh please, stay tune!

Blu ray is the better format in every respect. When the format is finalized, it will be everything HD DVD already is but better.

I didnt know that profile 2.0 will remove region coding, forced copyprotection, and make BD9 mandatory.

Great news :)

thank you