With the upcoming 2008 Olympics and the release of CH-DVD around that time. I believe now would be a good time to discuss the impact of CH-DVD. Over 1 billion people in that country and with China destine to be the next economic superpower, this topic is almost too important not to discuss.

Will it or will it not have an impact on the following:

1) Mass Adoption
2) Prices
3) Studio Support
4) Hardware player production/distribution
5) Disc Manufacturing of Combos, TL, and TLT
6) Piracy issues

Will this have an impact on HD DVD or will CH DVD lead to widespread piracy?

None whatsoever since those player won't be available outside of China. It's a closed market.

None whatsoever since those player won't be available outside of China. It's a closed market.


I think that is a little short sighted.

Piracy will definately be an issue.

Even if the market is closed and not one single CHDVD is exported they will still add to the economy of scale that is needed to keep bringing down prices for HDDVD.

CH-DVD movies will play on US HD-DVD players will they not?

I think it is safe to say that all HD DVD movies will be playable on CH-DVD. If China takes off with CH DVD and start selling millions of HD hardware and software, it seems that by 2009, we can expect well under $99 prices for the hardware. Even if they can't sell the software, piracy will allow manufacturers to gain economies of scale on making disc.

One question that I have is that with falling prices of HD DVD software and hardware due to CH DVD, would Studio's be able to capitalize on CH DVD success, and would that translate to better HD DVD support outside of China?

I do think that with CH DVD a standard for China, that all neighboring Asian country that is influence by China will also adopt CH DVD. That means Hong Kong, Singapore, Malaysia, Veitnam, Thailand, Taiwan, and maybe Korea. If piracy spreads, we will also start seeing countries with a Chinatown like community buying CH DVD.

With the upcoming 2008 Olympics and the release of CH-DVD around that time. I believe now would be a good time to discuss the impact of CH-DVD. Over 1 billion people in that country and with China destine to be the next economic superpower, this topic is almost too important not to discuss.

Will it or will it not have an impact on the following:

Will this have an impact on HD DVD or will CH DVD lead to widespread piracy?

I think:

Warner’s decision to go Blu-ray exclusive and kill off HD-DVD may be the Blu-ray Groups plan to create two regional markets for HD media.

Blu-ray marketed in the Americas, Europe and the South Asian regions, and HD-DVD (CH-DVD) marketed exclusively in China.

This would stop any knock-off (pirated) HD media copies coming from China to the Americas, Europe and the South Asian regions, because there would be no mass market that would have hardware to play the HD-DVD media.

Another way of looking at this is, to control region pricing of HD media.

In that way, Sony scores big with royalties from Blu-ray and Toshiba from the Chinese CH-DVD (HD-DVD) media.

The effects will be minimal.

HDM penetration is expected to hit 4m...in 2011.

I think:

Warner’s decision to go Blu-ray exclusive and kill off HD-DVD may be the Blu-ray Groups plan to create two regional markets for HD media.

Blu-ray marketed in the Americas, Europe and the South Asian regions, and HD-DVD (CH-DVD) marketed exclusively in China.

This would stop any knock-off (pirated) HD media copies coming from China to the Americas, Europe and the South Asian regions, because there would be no mass market that would have hardware to play the HD-DVD media.

Another way of looking at this is, to control region pricing of HD media.

In that way, Sony scores big with royalties from Blu-ray and Toshiba from the Chinese CH-DVD (HD-DVD) media.


That's a bit oversimplistic I believe. Cheap media in China could easily be sold via Ebay or Chinese auction sites and mailed to the US with minimal delay. I can easily see folks buying HD-DVD players either from the US or from China (multi-voltage) and just ordering the bootlegs from Chinese exporters...especially, since they've already got factories well prepared to make the discs. Don't think for a minute that the Chinese government will allow those factories to run idle. I'm not advocating piracy, but let's not be naive enough to think that a simple format issue will stop piracy from the far east. It will not based upon the conviction with which Chinese authorities have enforced copyright in the past. :o

CH-DVD movies will play on US HD-DVD players will they not?
No.

http://www.emedialive.com/articles/readarticle.aspx?articleid=11631#iie

This is not first time China developed domestic video media standard to avoid foreign patent royalty payment. See failed attempt of Chinese EVD (2003) - alternative, enhanced version of SD DVD. http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Enhanced_Versatile_Disc

But EVD failed miserably not because of technical difficulty, but because of lack of software titles. So why should should imagine that more movies will be available on CH-DVD than EVD? Without help of major movie studios, no new video media format can succeed even for giant China.

CH-DVD is loosely based on HD-DVD technology. But it can not play HD-DVD disc because, if then, CH-DVD manufactures have to pay patent royalty to Toshiba (patent holder of HD-DVD), which will invalidate the very purpose of introducing CH-DVD format.
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But what it does do is provide an inexpensive production source for HD-DVD players. As I understand it the only real difference will be the firmware. So the same assembly line in China that makes CH-DVD players by the millions can also make HD-DVD players at the same low cost. No way BD can compete with that kind of low-cost manufacturing capacity. $49 HD-DVD players could potentially be a reality because of CH-DVD, and a direct replacement for SD DVD. Why the studios don't see this is beyond me.

They're not cheaper players. As a matter of fact, the players are more in line with the Blu-ray player prices many of you so love to kvetch about: As a matter of fact, plenty of domestic companies in the China High Definition DVD Industry Association are preparing to rollout HD-DVD players in the Chinese market during 2008, said Lu Da, an official of the Optical Memory National Engineering Research Center. Some of the products, priced at no more than CNY 3,000, will be available in the market in the coming March.

http://www.tradingmarkets.com/.site/news/Stock%20News/1059124/

CNY 3,000 is $417.65, about the same price as non-Elite/boutique BD players. That's an expense that maybe 2% (~30m) of Chinese can afford after all other expenses.

I don't recall that any CHDVD titles have been announced. The CHDVD market is a closed market so like many here mentioned, I doubt it would do anything here.

But what it does do is provide an inexpensive production source for HD-DVD players. As I understand it the only real difference will be the firmware. So the same assembly line in China that makes CH-DVD players by the millions can also make HD-DVD players at the same low cost. No way BD can compete with that kind of low-cost manufacturing capacity. $49 HD-DVD players could potentially be a reality because of CH-DVD, and a direct replacement for SD DVD. Why the studios don't see this is beyond me.

Studios are partners of hardware vendors. Hardware vendors don't want to race to the bottom on pricing to compete against the low priced Chinese any sooner than they have to.

If anything for studios not supporting hd dvd it means BD doesn't have to compete with that kind of low-cost manufacturing capacity.

As consumers we tend to think the goal is Mass Adoption when in reality the goal is Mass Profitability. If a certain path to Mass Adoption doesn't lead to Mass Profitability then for the industry a dual market of DVD and BD should be far better for margins.

For BD that equates to keeping China's role at a minimum.

FYI, CH DVD and HD DVD hardware are almost identical. The only differences are the modulation of the laser, a chip with various codecs, and FW/software. CH DVD "employs a Four-to-Six Modulation (FSM) encoding system, instead of HD DVD's standard Eight-to-Twelve Modulation (ETM)".

From everything I have read, a factory line can build both CH DVD and HD DVD.

CH-DVD can not win Blu-ray/HD-DVD. China is large market indeed. But for expensive electronic gear like HDM player, it is smaller market than Japanese market alone.
So think of market size of China versus (U.S. + Japan + E.U. + Rest of world except China). Former may be not so small but latter is much larger than Chinese market. So CH-DVD is in inferior position in market size and economy of scale to Blu-ray/HD-DVD.
CH-DVD can not compete against Blu-ray/HD-DVD in quantity of mass-production and price. So CH-DVD player will be more expensive than Blu-ray/HD-DVD player even without paying patent royalty levied on Blu-ray/HD-DVD.

Who will buy more expensive HDM player with less titles available on it? Best price CH-DVD can offer is cheapest HD-DVD price minus royalty payment amount. Will such a price difference can persuade Chinese consumer to buy CH-DVD player which cannot play foreign HDM titles already available on market? I think not. Even Chinese people won't take it.
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The effects will be minimal.

HDM penetration is expected to hit 4m...in 2011.

The article says 5m in 2009. 4m is only 1/325th of the population.

The article says 5m in 2009. 4m is only 1/325th of the population.:confused:

What article?
FYI, CH DVD and HD DVD hardware are almost identical. The only differences are the modulation of the laser, a chip with various codecs, and FW/software. CH DVD "employs a Four-to-Six Modulation (FSM) encoding system, instead of HD DVD's standard Eight-to-Twelve Modulation (ETM)".So the difference is the optics and all the software? What's the same, the power cord?

The thing is what is stopping these Chinese hardware manufactorer from introducing HD DVD/CH DVD players to the Chinese market? If the hardware is generally the same with the exception of different firmware and codec swaps. I can see why HD DVD will not be able to handle the additional codecs of CH DVD, but I can also see how HD DVD can be easily added to CH DVD players on the production line.

Also right now, you can say that all HD DVD players are made in China, and given that 1 million HD DVD drives are in consumers hands, the additional 4-5 million players is a big boost in 2009.

:confused:

What article?


http://www.emedialive.com/articles/readarticle.aspx?articleid=11631#iie

5 million by 2009, and 10 million by 2010.


So the difference is the optics and all the software? What's the same, the power cord?

The optics is the same, just the modulation of the laser. Really the only change needed is a firmware update. Future HD DVD players will probably be equip to play CH DVD, but the firmware will limit the usable codecs and control the laser modulation.

http://www.emedialive.com/articles/readarticle.aspx?articleid=11631#iie

5 million by 2009, and 10 million by 2010. I'm sorry, but an estimate from the consortium behind CH DVD is not viable estimation data. Toshiba said they expected 2.7m players by the end of 2007, and they barely broke 1m. Universal claimed 100 titles in 2007, yet released more like 50. The only way I'll believe these guys is by halving their estimates.
The optics is the same, just the modulation of the laser. Really the only change needed is a firmware update.If that's all we needed, every PS3 sold since the beginning could play HD DVDs tomorrow.
Future HD DVD players will probably be equip to play CH DVD, but the firmware will limit the usable codecs and control the laser modulation.It's not just the codecs and modulation, it's the entire disc structure. Menus, navigation, file placement, extensions, the works.

So, back to the drawing board.

For the reasons given above CH DVD will have no impact on the international market beyond possible software piracy (which will happen inside China even if HD DVD folds).

A larger question is will CH DVD even have an impact inside China? The Chinese middle class is growing rapidly, but both its size and overall spending power per capita is still limited. In my experience urban, upper middle class love their status-symbol toys (some things seem to be human nature all over...) but the actual penetration of HDTVs is still very small. Mostly I only see them in upscale hotels in major cities that cater to western businessmen (the Best Western in Beijing has oe in the lobby and one in the bar, for example).

Without many HDTVs (and with lots of people still too poor to buy them) how will any number of CH DVD players sell in the next 5 years? Without an install base, most content will still be available on VCD and bootleg DVDs. I just don't think there will be a significant growth market there until it's long too late for HD DVD, and probably too late for CH DVD. As I've mentioned in other threads, there seems to be virtually no presence or awareness of the format even in Beijing right now. Maybe that'll change over the summer, but right now I wouldn't hold my breath that the format will ever take off in China, let alone have some influence on its sister format in the rest of the world.

The impact will be typical Chinese junk hardware.

If that's all we needed, every PS3 sold since the beginning could play HD DVDs tomorrow.

Isn't that with the apecture and focal distance? Modulation isn't related to optics?

Isn't that with the apecture and focal distance? Modulation isn't related to optics?
As I understand it, modulation affects how the data is actually burned onto the disc (though someone who has actual knowledge is free to correct me on this, as this is an impression based on some quick Google scanning on ETM, or eight-to-twelve modulation as used by HD DVD, as well as DVD).

In any case, the codecs under discussion between CH-DVD and HD DVD are vastly different. You can't play discs for one in the other player; the necessary hardware to support the codecs present just aren't there, and the only devices on the market that could conceivably make the switch would be the Xbox 360/add-on enabled HTPCs - and I seriously doubt Microsoft is going to be thrilled with the idea of adding support for a product that hardly anyone in their primary market (USA) will be interested in.

Singapore, Thailand, Malaysia and Bangkok will follow China on the piracy front.

Reading this thread makes me think that no one really knows much about the implications of the technology differences or their possible effects. We'll know soon enough.

I think:

Warner’s decision to go Blu-ray exclusive and kill off HD-DVD may be the Blu-ray Groups plan to create two regional markets for HD media.

Blu-ray marketed in the Americas, Europe and the South Asian regions, and HD-DVD (CH-DVD) marketed exclusively in China.

This would stop any knock-off (pirated) HD media copies coming from China to the Americas, Europe and the South Asian regions, because there would be no mass market that would have hardware to play the HD-DVD media.

Another way of looking at this is, to control region pricing of HD media.

In that way, Sony scores big with royalties from Blu-ray and Toshiba from the Chinese CH-DVD (HD-DVD) media.I suspect even Chinese people reject CH-DVD. They can buy Blu-ray after all.

I suspect even Chinese people reject CH-DVD. They can buy Blu-ray after all.
You mean there's a pirate version of the PS3?

CH DVD is a government supported standard, I think that alone will allows decision and manufactoring to favor CH DVD. Besides, the whole idea is to skip out on the licensing fees, unless BR wants allow Chinese to have royal free technology.

CH DVD is a government supported standard, I think that alone will allows decision and manufactoring to favor CH DVD. Besides, the whole idea is to skip out on the licensing fees, unless BR wants allow Chinese to have royal free technology.

Manufacturers can, to be frank, skip out on paying BD royalties in China too...the government isn't going to prevent them (especially since most BD IP holders are Japanese companies). Beyond that there is no "government support" of CH DVD, outside of making it official that they don't have to license certain IP.

CH DVD is a government supported standard, I think that alone will allows decision and manufactoring to favor CH DVD. Besides, the whole idea is to skip out on the licensing fees, unless BR wants allow Chinese to have royal free technology.
Government support wasn't enough to save their EVD format. No one was interested, and you can't have a media format without something to put on the discs. CH DVD will have similar problems. The Hollywood studios simply will not accept a format that has such a leaky sieve for security, not to mention non-standard codecs.

With the upcoming 2008 Olympics and the release of CH-DVD around that time. I believe now would be a good time to discuss the impact of CH-DVD. Over 1 billion people in that country and with China destine to be the next economic superpower, this topic is almost too important not to discuss.

Will it or will it not have an impact on the following:

1) Mass Adoption
2) Prices
3) Studio Support
4) Hardware player production/distribution
5) Disc Manufacturing of Combos, TL, and TLT
6) Piracy issues

Will this have an impact on HD DVD or will CH DVD lead to widespread piracy?

I doubt it will have an effect, the disks are not cross capital due to licences from what I understand and VCD's and bootleg DVDs will probably still dominate.

But what it does do is provide an inexpensive production source for HD-DVD players. As I understand it the only real difference will be the firmware. So the same assembly line in China that makes CH-DVD players by the millions can also make HD-DVD players at the same low cost. No way BD can compete with that kind of low-cost manufacturing capacity. $49 HD-DVD players could potentially be a reality because of CH-DVD, and a direct replacement for SD DVD. Why the studios don't see this is beyond me.

I don't think they will be making players by the millions. SD DVD has not completely replaced VCD in china or other places in SE Asia so don't expect CH-DVD to place SD DVD. I think their would have to be a large bootleg market for it to gain traction, if not it will not surpass VCDs

Beyond that there is no "government support" of CH DVD, outside of making it official that they don't have to license certain IP.

Depends how you view "government support".
The whole point of the CH-HDDVD is that it uses Chinese "intellectual property" in the form of the AVS codec and chip, wholly developed by Chinese research laboratories and Universities.
This means that the license fees for AVS is paid back to the Chinese patent owners and thus provides an income to Chinese electronic development societies and a “pride of ownership”. This gives the Chinese some real “incentives” to protect their property against piracy.
Movies for CH-HDDVD also have to be authored with AVS to be playable on CH-HDVD players, which will give the same “incentive” reasons for protection against piracy and better the Chinese government’s ability to control which movies are allowed into the Chinese marked under the Chinese sensor rules.
For the first time the Chinese industry (and thereby the government), in the history of Optical Disc Media, has a reason to enforce anti-piracy measures because they will lose money if not.

But at the same time, the real hardware difference in the machines coming off the assembly lines is whether it has an AVS codec chip or a
VC-1/AVC/mpg2/Dolby/DTS chip design. In that way the machines can be made on the same assembly line with this small hardware/software difference and the Chinese CEM will not lose out on the export marked.

The prices quoted in this article; Toshiba to Keep Aloof from Chinese HD-DVD Player Sector (http://www.tradingmarkets.com/.site/news/Stock%20News/1059124/) ,seems rather high, but we will see when several CH-HDDVD manufacturers start to present their machines and get some time to “crank up” the production lines.
(Interesting to note that Toshiba will not compete in the Chinese HD marked but leave that wholly to the Chinese CEM)

To speculate the future:
I believe the reasons and long term plan by Toshiba and the DVD Forum for pushing for and helping develop a CH-HDDVD format are that at some point they want to (and need to) set a future date for stopping the production of SDDVD Only players.
To be able to do that they need to have Chinese CEM on their side by giving them this format that easily can be produced both for the domestic marked and for export, or else a “stop order” for SDDVD only players would just be ignored by Chinese CEM.

Maybe the “saddest effect” of this “format war” is that the DVD Forum didn’t get enough support for the upgrade of the DVD format and that the “war” wasn’t fought within the DVD Forum (which the Forum was originally made for).
Because then it would have been easy to talk Toshiba into making the necessary changes to the DVD license, so at a given date in the future, it would only be legal to make DVD players that also played HD. This could have happened before the DVD license went to automatic 5 year renewal December 31, 2007, and all production of SDVD Only players could have stopped in 2009 or 2010.
With the Chinese CEM on their side, this would to my mind be the fastest and maybe the only way of making a “mass transition” to HDM.

We'll likely be able to buy imported "CH-DVD" players and bootleg "CH-DVD" discs, from the same stores that currently sell $20 Chinese DVD players and bootleg SD DVDs.

They're not cheaper players. As a matter of fact, the players are more in line with the Blu-ray player prices many of you so love to kvetch about:

http://www.tradingmarkets.com/.site/news/Stock%20News/1059124/

CNY 3,000 is $417.65, about the same price as non-Elite/boutique BD players. That's an expense that maybe 2% (~30m) of Chinese can afford after all other expenses.

I believe I saw the article you are quoting and blu ray players are CNY 12,000.

I was comparing it to US prices.

CH-DVD movies will play on US HD-DVD players will they not?

Nope.

CNY 3,000 is $417.65, about the same price as non-Elite/boutique BD players. That's an expense that maybe 2% (~30m) of Chinese can afford after all other expenses.

The articles says no more than CNY 3,000 or roughly $400. That makes it the highest price for an HD DVD player. Going by US stardard where a high end model HD DVD player is going for $300 and a entry level is going for $150. That means we can expect entry level machines in China to cost around $200. This is much better than the $500 - $600 BR players in China.

If you look at how Nvidia or ATI builds their graphic cards for the pro and casual market, they pretty much build only the Pro class graphics card, but disables the additional features to be sold as casual class graphics card. Obviously they get better economic scale by making 1 card and disabling features for the 2nd market than to make 2 seperate production lines for 2 cards. The same economic scale can be applied to CH DVD and HD DVD.

I was comparing it to US prices.

So you were comparing CH DVD/China prices to Blu-ray/US prices, instead of
CH DVD/China prices to Blu-ray/China prices?

I guess you point is Oranges are not Apples?

Its all there in the article:


http://www.tradingmarkets.com/.site/news/Stock%20News/1059124/

As a matter of fact, plenty of domestic companies in the China High Definition DVD Industry Association are preparing to rollout HD-DVD players in the Chinese market during 2008,
Some of the products, priced at no more than CNY 3,000, will be available in the market in the coming March.

Since January 24, 2008, the first CNY 4,990 Blu-ray DVD player catering for the Chinese customers, launched by Blu-ray backer Sony

Pioneer-branded Blu-ray DVD players have been provided to the customers in the nation in the past year.
However, the pricy CNY 14,800 scared the potential buyers away.


Will be interesting to see; "plenty of domestic companies in the China High Definition DVD Industry Association", compete against imported BD players from Japanese companies. Or rather the other way around.

Why didn't China adopt red laser based alternative like HD-VMD?
http://www.pcworld.com/article/id,136977-c,hometheatersystems/article.html
Red laser technology is inherently cheaper to manufacture than blue laser based HD disc/players like Blu-ray, HD-DVD and even CH-DVD. Use multi-layer red laser disc with Chinese AVS codec technology and optical modulation to avoid licensing fee like CH-DVD. Red laser player can do without using expensive blue laser pickup which should be imported from Japan. It will be much cheaper alternative than HD-DVD or current blue-laser CH-DVD.

Saving in licensing fee cannot make cost advantage large enough to offset advantage of HD-DVD or Blu-ray in Chinese consumer market. Fighting against HD-DVD/Blu-ray in China will require radical cost/price advantage from new (or old?) technology similar to HD-VMD.
.

The articles says no more than CNY 3,000 or roughly $400. That makes it the highest price for an HD DVD player. Going by US stardard where a high end model HD DVD player is going for $300 and a entry level is going for $150. That means we can expect entry level machines in China to cost around $200. This is much better than the $500 - $600 BR players in China.How much does PS3 cost in China?

Why didn't China adopt red laser based alternative like HD-VMD?I think they did and it failed already.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Enhanced_Versatile_Disc

How much does PS3 cost in China?


I don't think they sell those in China.

Yes, China is always a generation behind the rest of the world in consoles. I think the console manufacturers like it that way, as it reduces piracy of the newest games.

I think they did and it failed already.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Enhanced_Versatile_Disc

I already mentioned that. EVD is not HD disc format. It is just Chinese substitute of good-ol' SD-DVD. I meant HD equivalent of EVD, like HD-VMD.

I don't think they sell those in China.Not officially but there should be importer shops.
I already mentioned that. EVD is not HD disc format. It is just Chinese substitute of good-ol' SD-DVD. I meant HD equivalent of EVD, like HD-VMD.It has an HD profile with an advanced codec.
On the EVD, the video codecs VP5 and VP6 from On2 Technologies were supposed to be used. These are more efficient than MPEG-2 Video[citation needed] and could enable the disc to store HDTV resolutions, a feature the DVD could not offer when using MPEG-2

It has an HD profile with an advanced codec.

Yes, only in theory. But even CD-ROM (700MB) can use advanced HD codec to store HD video.
EVD has essentially physically same as DVD disc. So it simply don't have enough storage capacity (and transfer speed) to support HD video of full-length feature film. It is not practical for HD movie distribution. No HD movie is released in EVD, yet.

But HD-VMD has enough storage capacity and transfer speed that rivals HD-DVD or Blu-ray. Sevral HD movies were released in HD-VMD.
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CH-DVD hasn't even been officially launched in China. Nobody knows if it's going to be successful so it's simply premature to speculate on any global impact. I'd even say it's wishful thinking to hope that CH-DVD would somehow save HD DVD.

For some of the reasons given in this thread and others which I won't go into (but mainly to do with Chinese demography, consumer buying psychology etc.) I see a very low chance of it being a success.

As a side-note, Toshiba HD-E1 (A2 equivalent) was HK$4790 or thereabout (about US$600) in Hong Kong two months ago when I was there, the same price as the Sony S300.

As a side-note, Toshiba HD-E1 (A2 equivalent) was HK$4790 or thereabout (about US$600) in Hong Kong two months ago when I was there, the same price as the Sony S300.

In comparison you can buy a PS3 in HK for $2680.($343 USD)

In comparison you can buy a PS3 in HK for $2680.($343 USD)

Yes, or even less in MK. I was tempted as they had a special white edition with freebies.:D

With the upcoming 2008 Olympics and the release of CH-DVD around that time. I believe now would be a good time to discuss the impact of CH-DVD. Over 1 billion people in that country and with China destine to be the next economic superpower, this topic is almost too important not to discuss.

Will it or will it not have an impact on the following:

1) Mass Adoption
2) Prices
3) Studio Support
4) Hardware player production/distribution
5) Disc Manufacturing of Combos, TL, and TLT
6) Piracy issues

Will this have an impact on HD DVD or will CH DVD lead to widespread piracy?

None whatsoever. Last time a country tried to go against international standards (NTT Docomo Cellular service in Japan). The rest of the world ignored them and they eventually have to get back in the fold adopting 3G.