Welcome to the third week of the second contest. By participating in this thread you are agreeing to the following:

1- Nielsen/VideoScan gets a statistically significant amount of sales data. It does not get all data, but the amount it gets is far more than sufficient to be useful and statistically significant.
2- If the studios had aligned differently, things would be different. See, we all agree on that now. There is no need to discuss it ad nauseam.
3- If not for BOGOs and other sales, things would be different.
4- (This space intentionally left blank) [kudos to whoever gets the reference]
5- Studios have made decisions based on factors confessed to and not confessed to. What those factors are is irrelevant to any possible on topic discussion in this thread.
6- People make predictions based on a wide variety of assumptions and for different reasons. Do not make fun of the person make fun of the pick, especially if it does not add up to 100%.
7- Saying the real contest is now Blu-ray vs. DVD and then posting the ratio for that is not witty or clever. Oh, it might have been when it was done the first time. That is in the past. All it does now is make the poster look petty.
8- We don't need format war posts in here. However, saying things like "This was a good week for Blu." or "I think this may be a trend where HD DVD gains back some market share." is not a format war post if you back it up and are using it as a basis for your prediction. Saying "HD-DUD is so dead!" or "Poo-ray is teh suxxor!" is a format war post, and, quite frankly, is very unimaginative.
9- While discussion of the various calendars is fascinating, this is not the place for it.
10- This list is likely to get longer as time goes by.

If you are unable to follow these rules, you will get a warning. If you break them again, I will put you on ignore. Actually, you will likely be asked by the mods to not post in the thread again.

With that out of the way, on to the fun stuff.
HD DVD doubles the number of new titles this week with two. First is Naked Beneath the Water from the Phoenix group. The second is Universal's Elizabeth: The Golden Age.

Blu-ray continues with the large release slates. Warner brings two titles to bear with The brave One and The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford. It will be interesting to see if the release dates for the HD DVDs get broken on them as well.

The release slate for Blu is rounded out by Sony's Across the Universe. (with a run time of 2:11, you know it has to move pretty fast to do that), Fox's Wall Street and Crimson Tide from Buena Vista among other titles.

The lone Neutral entry this week is the third season of Deadliest Catch from The Discovery Channel.

IMPORTANT NOTE: Please make your prediction with BD:HD even if you are going to predict HD DVD winning the week. Also, you are predicting the BD numbers, the HD DVD is implied. If I am confused, I will ask you for clarification if there is time before the deadline. Otherwise, you are stuck with how I read it.

The prediction period will close at 5 P.M Eastern time. That is 2 P.M. for those of you in Pacific time. This will get us ahead of the leaks. The numbers on February 15th will cover sales from February4th-February 10th, inclusive.

Nielsen contest entries for 02/15/2008

NAME BD:HD
Robert SawyerIII 91:9
sky69 89:11
desmond212 88:12
Russell Burrows 88:12
JamesDFarrow 87:13
torsteinvh 86:14
bplewis 84:16
soremekun 84:16
dstewart 84:16
torse_jack 83:17
Leviathan25 83:17
nyg 83:17
William 83:17
dpags 83:17
Newbie 82:18
GP_23 82:18
gand41f 82:18
theforce8686 82:18
Rob Tomlin 82:18
nick_weasel 82:18
Random Digital 82:18
spacejamz 82:18
wisedesi 82:18
phansson 82:18
Bill0711 82:18
RDarrylR 82:18
Lbarber 82:18
frizshizzle 81:19
Ktak 81:19
Monty22001 81:19
Aresca 81:19
JAC6 81:19
Merrick97 81:19
Woodshed 81:19
bato 81:19
dc_pilgrim 81:19
ehomer 81:19
Earz 81:19
MrPorterhouse 81:19
ottscay 81:19
Kampf kobold 81:19
manikin 80:20
MarekM 80:20
brianmonkey 80:20
bommai 80:20
elikhom 80:20
patrick99 80:20
Jackietreehorn 80:20
Fran O'Hern 80:20
darinp2 80:20
lomax 80:20
Sketcha 80:20
theflux 80:20
iamitman 80:20
Myxamatosis 80:20
John Ballentine 80:20
Icemage 79:21
MASrules 79:21
Will d s 79:21
Greg Kettell 79:21
Rich Peterson 79:21
jmcq 79:21
tomsteeper 79:21
user friendly 79:21
neillkrin 79:21
cakefoo 79:21
h0mi 79:21
Jiffylush 79:21
Kemet 79:21
30XS955 User 78:22
Entertainment72 78:22
diatom 78:22
swedcrip 78:22
chirpie 78:22
jling84 78:22
carljanderson 78:22
TPigeon2006 78:22
basano 78:22
Steve Schauer 78:22
HuntzHD 78:22
merlintl 78:22
eightninesuited 78:22
UxiSXRD 78:22
SGRSBSKIER 78:22
onkeh 78:22
dildatonr 77:23
DarkAdept 77:23
datobin1 77:23
shamus 77:23
Neo1965 77:23
rcase13 77:23
rlsmith 77:23
spazzcat 77:23
MRMOTA 76:24
fitprod 76:24
ifmracin 76:24
Dreessen 76:24
bluescreen 76:24
bolaar 76:24
Loc13 76:24
Jagt Mirage 76:24
Staying Salty 76:24
Jallopy 75:25
ts.enigma 75:25
klac 75:25
galperi1 75:25
caesartheboxer 75:25
online 75:25
Richard Paul 75:25
crimsona 75:25
Jblacklow 75:25
audiomixer 75:25
Hanazaki 75:25
aaronwt 74:26
Vyrance 74:26
ICBM99 73:27
Maxphoenix5 73:27
boneycat 73:27
BritInVA 72:28
rcutlass70 72:28
lotc 72:28
d3code 71:29
anttimonty 71:29
MidnightWatcher 71:29
omedga66 70:30
theone2 70:30
Z07VETTE 70:30
allargon 67:33
pkde 66:34
Shmack 65:35
JS23 65:35
norliss 64:36
Super XP 60:40
jwebb1970 60:40
Rezo 24:76


New releases this week:

HD DVD
Naked Beneath the Water (Phoenix Group)
Deadliest Catch: Season 3 (Discovery Channel)
Elizabeth: The Golden Age (Universal)

Blu-ray
Deadliest Catch: Season 3 (Discovery Channel)
Crimson Tide (Buena Vista)
Me, Myself & Irene (Fox)
Wall Street (Fox)
The Jane Austen Book Club (Sony)
Acorss The Universe (Sony)
Celine Dion: A New Day... Live in Las Vegas (Sony BMG)
Breaker Morant (Image)
The Brave One (Warner)
The Assassination of Jesse James by the Coward Robert Ford (Warner)

No perfect picks this week.

AVS

Weekly Stats

Week Picks Perfect High Actual Low Mean Median Mode
1 164 6 91* (8) [48] 83 60 (23) [110] 80.55 80.5 78
2 152 9 92 (10) [99] 82 60 (22) [44] 83.13 84 84
3 139 0 99 (25) [135] 74 58 (16) [4] 82.08 82 81

*Guess of 100% ignored as they are technically impossible due to truncating.


Nielsen contest results for 02/08/2008

Correct Nielsen/VideoScan ratio : 74:26

NAME Guess Attempts Avg. Score
Rezo 76:24 1 2.00
Myxamatosis 81:19 3 2.33
iamitman 80:20 3 2.33
Lbarber 79:21 3 2.67
SGRSBSKIER 79:21 3 2.67
rlsmith 81:19 3 3.33
Jiffylush 80:20 3 3.33
anttimonty 79:21 3 3.33
rcase13 79:21 3 3.33
d3code 77:23 2 3.50
cakefoo 83:17 3 3.67
Sketcha 83:17 3 3.67
dpags 82:18 3 3.67
eightninesuited 82:18 3 3.67
UxiSXRD 82:18 3 3.67
h0mi 81:19 3 3.67
Jagt Mirage 80:20 3 3.67
Neo1965 80:20 3 3.67
theflux 80:20 3 3.67
Jblacklow 77:23 3 3.67
torsteinvh 86:14 3 4.00
ottscay 84:16 3 4.00
jkwest 82:18 3 4.00
neillkrin 82:18 3 4.00
MrPorterhouse 81:19 3 4.00
lomax 80:20 3 4.00
Winn 79:21 3 4.00
darinp2 78:22 3 4.00
Loc13 80:20 2 4.00
crimsona 79:21 2 4.00
AZHTGeek 78:22 1 4.00
mike179179 78:22 1 4.00
jwebb1970 70:30 1 4.00
phansson 84:16 3 4.33
bolaar 82:18 3 4.33
HuntzHD 82:18 3 4.33
Fran O'Hern 81:19 3 4.33
merlintl 81:19 3 4.33
tomsteeper 81:19 3 4.33
user friendly 81:19 3 4.33
allargon 80:20 3 4.33
jmcq 79:21 3 4.33
William 86:14 3 4.67
basano 83:17 3 4.67
Greg Kettell 83:17 3 4.67
LonePirate 82:18 3 4.67
bluescreen 81:19 3 4.67
donricouga 81:19 3 4.67
ehomer 81:19 3 4.67
Rich Peterson 81:19 3 4.67
Richard Paul 81:19 3 4.67
Steve Schauer 81:19 3 4.67
Calmus 86:14 3 5.00
bato 83:17 3 5.00
dc_pilgrim 82:18 3 5.00
Will d s 82:18 3 5.00
Jackietreehorn 82:18 2 5.00
John Ryder 82:18 2 5.00
Bendertv 79:21 1 5.00
Maxphoenix5 79:21 1 5.00
carljanderson 87:13 3 5.33
Woodshed 86:14 3 5.33
Random Digital 85:15 3 5.33
spacejamz 85:15 3 5.33
patrick99 84:16 3 5.33
Vyrance 84:16 3 5.33
TPigeon2006 83:17 3 5.33
elikhom 82:18 3 5.33
MASrules 82:18 3 5.33
ADGrant 81:19 3 5.33
nickoakdl 81:19 3 5.33
rcutlass70 81:19 3 5.33
nick_weasel 80:20 3 5.33
ICBM99 79:21 3 5.33
online 75:25 3 5.33
Slirp 84:16 2 5.50
caesartheboxer 80:20 3 5.67
bigdaveman 78:22 3 5.67
JAC6 87:13 3 6.00
dstewart 84:16 3 6.00
galperi1 84:16 3 6.00
TheSimplePanda 84:16 3 6.00
Aresca 83:17 3 6.00
chirpie 83:17 3 6.00
shamus 83:17 3 6.00
theforce8686 83:17 3 6.00
jling84 81:19 3 6.00
datobin1 78:22 3 6.00
Rob Tomlin 84:16 2 6.00
dumbswede 82:18 2 6.00
bommai 80:20 1 6.00
gand41f 87:13 3 6.33
DarkAdept 85:15 3 6.33
brianmonkey 84:16 3 6.33
swedcrip 84:16 3 6.33
Dreessen 80:20 3 6.33
Monty22001 84:16 2 6.50
BuGsArEtAsTy 83:17 2 6.50
trondmm 83:17 2 6.50
nyg 88:12 3 6.67
frizshizzle 86:14 3 6.67
GP_23 85:15 3 6.67
Ktak 85:15 3 6.67
Icemage 84:16 3 6.67
klac 84:16 3 6.67
Mel2 86:14 3 7.00
soremekun 86:14 3 7.00
MarekM 85:15 3 7.00
ifmracin 83:17 3 7.00
fredwi 80:20 3 7.00
Leviathan25 80:20 3 7.00
ts.enigma 80:20 3 7.00
dildatonr 81:19 1 7.00
opfreak 81:19 1 7.00
JamesDFarrow 87:13 3 7.33
Newbie 87:13 3 7.33
manikin 86:14 3 7.33
edgebsl 81:19 3 7.33
willyd 79:21 3 7.67
bplewis 87:13 3 8.00
fitprod 85:15 3 8.00
torse_jack 84:16 3 8.00
aaronwt 79:21 3 8.33
tiger roach 86:14 2 8.50
badboi 88:12 3 8.67
thebland 85:15 3 8.67
lvbeethoven 90:10 3 9.00
diatom 83:17 3 9.00
Jallopy 78:22 3 9.67
Robert SawyerIII 91:9 3 11.33
MRMOTA 84:16 2 11.50
30XS955 User 90:10 2 12.00
Bronco70 86:14 1 12.00
norliss 58:42 2 14.00
Namnuta 60:40 1 14.00
Shmack 65:35 3 14.67
sky69 93:7 1 19.00
coneyparleg 94:6 1 20.00
tusloj 99:1 1 25.00

Ok, here is how this round is going to work. The game might end at any time. If we get up to 10 weeks, anyone who made 8 guesses will be prize eligible. The contest will automatically end at 15 weeks. Anyone with 12 guesses at that point is prize eligible. Anyone who made a full 15 guesses will have their worst guess removed for the final scoring for prizes.

Once again I am putting up a $10 gift certificate. Someone jokingly suggested donating a player as a prize and I am going to run with that idea. I will be accepting prize donations. If anyone has two copies of a movie and want to donate one or got a movie in a giveaway they just do not want, here is a way to get rid of them instead of trying to get a buck for them on eBay.

84:16

80:20

83:17

No BOGOs this week, right? Assuming that's true, I'll guess 82:18.

Edit: It looks like there's a Universal BOGO this week. I'd like to change my guess to 80:20.

83:17

77:23

80:20

77:23

75:25

Correct Nielsen/VideoScan ratio : 74:24 and 2% HDVMD? :eek:

81:19

This is the week of the Uni BOGO, right? I'll say a nice round

75: 25

60:40

76:24

81:19.

67:33

80:20

Probably out of the running already with my crappy picks so far :eek:

81:19

79:21

80:20

75:25

73:27

Blu-ray 78:22 HDDVD

Pricing is favorable for HD DVD's, no real blockbuster Blu-rays, but some new titles to offset the HD DVD's pricing. This should push the numbers to a high 70's to low 80's range. I'll go with

81:19

Blu 87:13

James :)

78 : 22

76:24

72:28

88:12

75:25

81:19

79:21

74:26

79:21

84:16

I'd also like to say that I'm 100% right. No insider info, just gauranteeing I win the week! I better get bonus points for this :)

Brandon

ok i will guess early and pick

80 : 20 AGAIN well i have to be right some day

Does the HD DVD BOGO come into effect or was that last week?

81/19

70:30 :D

82:18

79:21

84:16

80:20
Fifth time's the cha...nevermind.

78:22

83:17

75:25

82:18

89:11

81:19

82:18

80:20

82:18

The unknown BOGO for HD DVD killed my average last week. The universal BOGO this week will not be able to take care of the onslaught of Blu Ray releases for the week. Without the sale on Universal I would have said 87:13:D

81:19

No BOGO for HD-DVD to brag about getting beat by barely less than 3 to 1.

75:25

75:25

24:76

24:76

Are you serious? :confused: This is Feb 2008, not Sept 2006.

Are you serious? :confused: This is Feb 2008, not Sept 2006.

He has faith in the Super Bowl commercial.

82:18

Food for thought:

What's the source for that info?

Brandon

80:20

--Darin

79:21

79:21

76:24

my first shot

72:28 in favor of Blu

91:9

78:22

78:22

71:29

it is hard to predict with so many hd-dvd bogos going on.

if possible there should be in the start of the thread which bogos are going on.

this week universal has bogos on amazon for hd-dvd. and paramount has a bogo on amazon now too for hd-dvd. what about cicuit city and best buy for example?

and what about bluray bogos?

anyway i predict 71 bluray vs 29 hd-dvd because of the universal and paramount bogos. but if there are more coming up i like to know so i can at least try to predict better :)

75:25

Amazon sale on 170 titles (Paramount and Universal) + Best Buy B1G1 + BN B1G1 is enough to tip the scales farther in to HD-DVD territory.

73:27

It is all about Celene Dion.. All of the early adopters will have to buy their wives something! That should help offset the BOGO's a bit... so...

78:22

77:23

78:22

75:25

82:18

I was off so badly last week that at this point it's starting to feel less like an educated guess and more like a total stab in the dark ... but will that stop me from trying? Heavens, no!

77:23

78:22

72:28

71:29

81:19

78:22

76:24

78:22

79/21

73:27

75:25

70:30

http://ecx.images-amazon.com/images/I/51ZZRM0KTDL._AA240_.jpg:http://ecx.images-amazon.com/images/I/518ToCv6vtL._AA240_.jpg

77:23

81-19 Blu.

78:22

82:18

64:36

79:21

81:19

81 : 19

74:26

81:19

76:24

80:20 for Blu. No BB BOGOs this week.

76:24

97 entries.

Probably too early, but wondering if the lack of ability to rent will lead to more purchases for HD DVD short term. I know early on I bought some blu-ray's when renting wasn't easy, but then blockbuster start carrying blu by my home.

Probably too early, but wondering if the lack of ability to rent will lead to more purchases for HD DVD short term. I know early on I bought some blu-ray's when renting wasn't easy, but then blockbuster start carrying blu by my home.

Some may purchase movies that they would have rented, but I think many will be losing even more confidence in the format.

In other words, while some people may buy more, I think most will not.

78:22

79:21

82:18

I think I'll just let it ride at 65:35.

My optimism continues indefinitely. :)

75/25

77:23

I don't think the Netflix and Best Buy news would have any impact on this weeks sales... Next week should be interesting.

Fewer broken street dates and no BOGO this week to help HD DVD. Elizabeth: The Golden Age might help soften the blow slightly.

Rest of the news from this week is too late to affect this week's contest numbers.

79 : 21

Fewer broken street dates and no BOGO this week to help HD DVD. Elizabeth: The Golden Age might help soften the blow slightly.

Rest of the news from this week is too late to affect this week's contest numbers.

79 : 21

+1 :)

80 : 20


Marek

Some may purchase movies that they would have rented, but I think many will be losing even more confidence in the format.

In other words, while some people may buy more, I think most will not.


Good point. Just read the Best Buy news. They are the #1 HDM source as well :)

78:22 for me.

82:18

70:30

81:19

80:20

76:24

80:20

83:17

80:20

88 blu

12 red

76:24

86:14

60:40

78:22

66 blu
34 red

82:18

65:35

78:22

82:18

79:21

Amazon B2G1 offer is up!

80:20

80:20

Same.

77:23

77:23

82:18

76:24

79 : 21

78:22

79:21

81:19

I am going to call it 80-20 for the week.

135 entries.

Weekly Stats

Week Picks Perfect High Actual Low Mean Median Mode
1 164 6 91* (8) [48] 83 60 (23) [110] 80.55 80.5 78
2 152 9 92 (10) [99] 82 60 (22) [44] 83.13 84 84
3 139 0 99 (25) [135] 74 58 (16) [4] 82.08 82 81
4 135 91 60 77.58 79 78

*Guess of 100% ignored as they are technically impossible due to truncating.

80:20

On the high-def disc front, "Universe" was the top Blu-ray Disc seller, while Universal's "The Golden Age" was the No. 1 HD DVD seller. "Universe" sold more than three times as many copies as did "Elizabeth."

http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/hr/content_display/home_entertainment/news/e3i797c75af15317bcfecedda1ae74313d9

I think they mean Across the Universe.

http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/hr/content_display/home_entertainment/news/e3i797c75af15317bcfecedda1ae74313d9

I think they mean Across the Universe.

Interesting. I think this is going to be another low volume week.

Interesting. I think this is going to be another low volume week.

Yep. This quarter's paltry releases have been tough. They really should have had more catalog titles to fill the weeks. We needed more Wall Street, The Rock, Con Air, etc. And it would be better still to start digging a bit deeper into the catalogs, to some films that are not action movies that did well at the summer box office.

Interesting. I think this is going to be another low volume week.

Yep. This quarter's paltry releases have been tough. They really should have had more catalog titles to fill the weeks. We needed more Wall Street, The Rock, Con Air, etc. And it would be better still to start digging a bit deeper into the catalogs, to some films that are not action movies that did well at the summer box office.

Well Wall Street is in this weeks numbers. We don't know where Elizabeth ended up in the top titles. Other Day and Date titles on BD are most likely above it like Brave One and Assassination of Jesse James.

Volume is probably up over last week, and when did 200k become a low volume week? January probably sold more discs than every month except the past 3 and January usually is slow for DVD I mean POTC:AWE and HP in December looks like they sold almost as much or more than all DVDs combined in January. Blu-ray is probably around 200k this week with HDDVD at around 50k maybe more.

Interesting. I think this is going to be another low volume week.

I disagree and think it's going to be a higher volume week than the last two. Just because Universe was the#1 BD title and only outsold the #1 HD DVD title 3:1 doesn't mean several other titles on BD didn't outsell it by 2:1 or higher. There's potential for at least 2 other titles to outsell it handily. We'll find out soon enough, though.

Brandon

I disagree and think it's going to be a higher volume week than the last two. Just because Universe was the#1 BD title and only outsold the #1 HD DVD title 3:1 doesn't mean several other titles on BD didn't outsell it by 2:1 or higher. There's potential for at least 2 other titles to outsell it handily. We'll find out soon enough, though.

Brandon

Agreed, we tend to trend with regular DVD sales, and the DVD versions of the three BD releases were ahead of the top DVD version of the HD DVD release.

Just so everyone knows, Rezo entered his prediction backwards. I have fixed it in the database and the correct 76:24 will be used for scoring purposes.

81:19

Sorry, your edit is too late to count.

Sorry, your edit is too late to count.

Fine but you can't use the original either since I hit the wrong number key (and didn't notice) unless you are using some "new" math.:D

Here's the "prediction" from the same guy who was spot on last week:
My software software prediction sales prediction for the week is 80/20. Top 3 will be new BD releases and some older WB catalog will round out the top 5. For the first time in a month actual unit sales of BD will be up (slightly). That's my best guess.
I guess Winn, er...wins again:I am going to call it 80-20 for the week.

Here's the "prediction" from the same guy who was spot on last week:

I guess Winn, er...wins again:

Here's hoping it is 80:20. I could use a perfect guess :)

So does this mean the big week over week "comeback" by HD DVD has been halted?

85:15 -> 83:17 -> 82:18 -> 74:26 -> 80:20

My guess for top 3 is:

Across The Universe
The Assassination Of Jesse James
The Jane Austen Book Club

What about The Brave One?

Jeez. I was going to guess 80:20 but fudged a little in HD DVD's favor and went with 79:21. Oh well, closer than I've been in a while.

On the high-def disc front, Across the Universe was the top Blu-ray Disc seller, while Elizabeth: The Golden Age was the No. 1 HD DVD seller. Universe sold more than three times as many copies as Elizabeth.

http://www.homemediamagazine.com/news/html/breaking_article.cfm?sec_id=2&&article_ID=12094

I'd guess Brave One and Jesse James as #2 and #3, or vice versa.

Jeez. I was going to guess 80:20 but fudged a little in HD DVD's favor and went with 79:21. Oh well, closer than I've been in a while.

I was going to guess 79;21, but decided to fudge a little in BDs favor at the last second.

Jeez. I was going to guess 80:20 but fudged a little in HD DVD's favor and went with 79:21. Oh well, closer than I've been in a while.

You still could be right as I believe he rounded and did not truncate last week.

Winn,

I think you have me down as 82:18 instead of 80:18. It's basically my own fault since I guessed 82:18 and then edited it to change my vote to 80:18.

Here's my post (#7)

"No BOGOs this week, right? Assuming that's true, I'll guess 82:18.

Edit: It looks like there's a Universal BOGO this week. I'd like to change my guess to 80:20.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Last edited by nick_weasel : 02-08-08 at 01:38 PM. "

If you think that it's unfair for some reason to change my vote at this point, no worries.

In any case, thanks again for doing this.

Winn,

I think you have me down as 82:18 instead of 80:18. It's basically my own fault since I guessed 82:18 and then edited it to change my vote to 80:18.

Here's my post (#7)

"No BOGOs this week, right? Assuming that's true, I'll guess 82:18.

Edit: It looks like there's a Universal BOGO this week. I'd like to change my guess to 80:20.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Last edited by nick_weasel : 02-08-08 at 01:38 PM. "

If you think that it's unfair for some reason to change my vote at this point, no worries.

In any case, thanks again for doing this.

Your edit was clearly in time, so I am taking it. I had to go back and fix last weeks ratio in the opening posts so I entered the first few guesses without posting an update. That's how I missed the quick edit you did.

Your 80:20 will be used for scoring when HMM comes out tomorrow.

Oh, I am really busy tomorrow so the scoring might be done late.

congrats to winners!

any leaked info on ytd/si market share?

congrats to winners!

any leaked info on ytd/si market share?

I think we can expect at least an SI point shift.

Wow I gussed right 2 out 3 weeks !

Wow I gussed right 2 out 3 weeks !

you are it, man!

Wow I gussed right 2 out 3 weeks !

I'll split it with you if you pm me the mega millions numbers :D

I'll split it with you if you pm me the mega millions numbers :D

lol.. maybe i should buy some lottery tickets!!

81:19.

Not bad, if 80-20 is correct.

well if it is 80:20 then i got one right ! yea but so many other people guessed it too :( hard to pull away from the pack, well i just guessed 80:20 because so many others were posting it LOL

Well if they start packaging HD DVD's with grande meals at Taco Bell we are going to have some serious competition.

Well if they start packaging HD DVD's with grande meals at Taco Bell we are going to have some serious competition.

Please make no mention Taco Bell...


(freaking Atkins diet):mad:

Please make no mention Taco Bell...


(freaking Atkins diet):mad:

Off topic:
Does that actually work?

On topic:
Off by 4.

Last week he said 75:25 then an article came out with actual numbers that put the ratio at 73.9:26.1. We should know Friday, but the "prediction" he made was actually off by 1%, so do we really know he if he actually has the real numbers?

There's some HUGE news out. As in "Toshiba to drop HD DVD (http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/hr/content_display/news/e3ib77125d96b22e86027d0bfb0c25aa58d)" news. How does that apply here? Well, they've got the confirmed figures out:The latest Nielsen VideoScan First Alert sales data show the top-selling Blu-ray Disc title for the week, Sony Pictures Home Entertainment's "Across the Universe," sold more than three times as many copies the week ending Feb. 10 as the top HD DVD seller, Universal Studios Home Entertainment's "Elizabeth: The Golden Age." Blu-ray Disc titles also accounted for 81% of all high-def disc sales for the week, with HD DVD at just 19%.
Yes, in light of the possibility of Toshiba officially announcing the death of HD DVD, this doesn't mean much, but I offer them here for completeness' sake.

Sigh... was thinking about 81:19 but decided to give HD the benefit of the doubt and picked 78:22. Oh well.....

If that article is right, that would be my first correct prediction. And, perhaps, in the last week of this contest's existence.

well i hope they rounded up, it still could be 80.5 : 19.5

but i will take off by one

If that article is right, that would be my first correct prediction. And, perhaps, in the last week of this contest's existence.

There will be at least one more week as we have gone through most of this week. Even if Toshiba calls it quits as long as HMM posts both the game should still go on. I wouldn't expect them to do both much longer after Toshiba calls it quits anyway.

Damn, two points high for me!

Yes, finally a correct pick for me.

Damn, mine was 79:21, I have really lost my touch (assuming I ever had one).

Of course this may become a lot less important in the coming weeks, this contest is fun, but getting 100% of new releases on BD is way better.

There's some HUGE news out. As in "Toshiba to drop HD DVD (http://www.hollywoodreporter.com/hr/content_display/news/e3ib77125d96b22e86027d0bfb0c25aa58d)" news. How does that apply here? Well, they've got the confirmed figures out:
Yes, in light of the possibility of Toshiba officially announcing the death of HD DVD, this doesn't mean much, but I offer them here for completeness' sake.

There's nothing to indicate anything will happen by next friday from Toshiba, so there's still at least one more week in winn's game. Toshiba will not announce a switch that quickly, it takes months to design a BD player and even if they started last week, they won't have anything for a while, which makes any announcement totally illogical.

Somehow, this game just isn't as exciting as it used to, I'm not even doing the basic back-of-the-envelope rough estimates anymore. Not that it ever helped anyway.

82:18

Damn, I think this is the third week in a row that I was off by 1! :mad:

Damn, I think this is the third week in a row that I was off by 1! :mad:

Mad? I'm ecstatic as I was only off by a PR 2 points on this one! :cool:

Brandon

wonder what the numbers will be like for the week of 2/17 - 2/23 (and reported on 2/29) after the events of this week will be?

Best Buy
Netflix
Walmart
and possibly Toshiba even

might we see a blu number in the 90's??? or will any firesales next week bring up the HD DVD numbers?

Home Media Magazine is up for the week ...

Week 81:19
YTD 77:23
SI 65:35

Elizabeth was the sole HD DVD entry in the top ten, at number nine.

100 Across the Universe
68.92 The Assassination of Jesse James ...
65.65 The Brave One
38.78 Blood Diamond
36.67 Goodfellas
34.44 3:10 to Yuma
30.50 Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End
28.45 Planet Earth: The Complete Series
27.42 Elizabeth: The Golden Age (HD DVD)
25.82 300

Anyone know what the total sales volume was?

I think it was 199k week of 02/03...

Week ending February 10, 2008

Across the Universe 100.00
The Assassination of Jesse James 68.92
The Brave One 65.65
Blood Diamond 38.78
Goodfellas 36.67
3:10 to Yuma 34.44
POTC: AWE 30.50
Planet Earth 28.45
Elizabeth: The Golden Age 27.42
300 25.82

xx Bourne Ultimatum 15.50
xx Transformers 14.15
xx The Kingdom 8.26
xx Batman Begins 7.32
xx 300 4.90
xx Planet Earth 3.13
xx Goodfellas 2.64
xx Blood Diamond 1.35

Wow, with all the other news this is the first time in a little while that I wasn't checking for the next HMM before it was posted.

With all the latest news will there still be another prediction thread? If not big thanks to Winn and all the others involved. Thread stayed professional and was a lot of fun. I just wish I had started sooner.

With all the latest news will there still be another prediction thread? If not big thanks to Winn and all the others involved. Thread stayed professional and was a lot of fun. I just wish I had started sooner.

I'll play the game until Toshiba officially throws in the towel.

I'll play the game until Toshiba officially throws in the towel.

I'll play until we have all the major studios on board with BD.

I'll play the game until Toshiba officially throws in the towel.

which could be as soon as monday. :eek:

A good crop of perfect picks:

frizshizzle
Ktak
Aresca
JAC6
Monty22001
Woodshed
bato
dc_pilgrim
Merrick97
ehomer
MrPorterhouse
ottscay
Earz
Kampf kobold


Nielsen contest results for 02/15/2008

Correct Nielsen/VideoScan ratio : 81:19

NAME Guess Attempts Avg. Score
Kampf kobold 81:19 1 0.00
John Ballentine 80:20 1 1.00
iamitman 80:20 4 2.00
Myxamatosis 80:20 4 2.00
Lbarber 82:18 4 2.25
Kemet 79:21 3 2.33
Bill0711 82:18 3 2.67
RDarrylR 82:18 3 2.67
Staying Salty 76:24 3 2.67
SGRSBSKIER 78:22 4 2.75
MrPorterhouse 81:19 4 3.00
ottscay 81:19 4 3.00
Sketcha 80:20 4 3.00
theflux 80:20 4 3.00
Jiffylush 79:21 4 3.00
Earz 81:19 3 3.00
wisedesi 82:18 2 3.00
onkeh 78:22 1 3.00
dpags 83:17 4 3.25
darinp2 80:20 4 3.25
lomax 80:20 4 3.25
Winn 80:20 4 3.25
cakefoo 79:21 4 3.25
h0mi 79:21 4 3.25
phansson 82:18 4 3.50
ehomer 81:19 4 3.50
Fran O'Hern 80:20 4 3.50
neillkrin 79:21 4 3.50
eightninesuited 78:22 4 3.50
UxiSXRD 78:22 4 3.50
rcase13 77:23 4 3.50
rlsmith 77:23 4 3.50
bommai 80:20 2 3.50
Rezo 76:24 2 3.50
Merrick97 81:19 3 3.67
Jackietreehorn 80:20 3 3.67
bato 81:19 4 3.75
dc_pilgrim 81:19 4 3.75
jmcq 79:21 4 3.75
tomsteeper 79:21 4 3.75
user friendly 79:21 4 3.75
Neo1965 77:23 4 3.75
William 83:17 4 4.00
Woodshed 81:19 4 4.00
Greg Kettell 79:21 4 4.00
Rich Peterson 79:21 4 4.00
HuntzHD 78:22 4 4.00
merlintl 78:22 4 4.00
Jagt Mirage 76:24 4 4.00
spazzcat 77:23 1 4.00
torsteinvh 86:14 4 4.25
Random Digital 82:18 4 4.25
spacejamz 82:18 4 4.25
elikhom 80:20 4 4.25
nick_weasel 80:20 4 4.25
patrick99 80:20 4 4.25
Will d s 79:21 4 4.25
basano 78:22 4 4.25
Steve Schauer 78:22 4 4.25
Jblacklow 75:25 4 4.25
Rob Tomlin 82:18 3 4.33
Monty22001 81:19 3 4.33
Loc13 76:24 3 4.33
Aresca 81:19 4 4.50
JAC6 81:19 4 4.50
MASrules 79:21 4 4.50
bolaar 76:24 4 4.50
crimsona 75:25 3 4.67
theforce8686 82:18 4 4.75
carljanderson 78:22 4 4.75
TPigeon2006 78:22 4 4.75
bluescreen 76:24 4 4.75
gand41f 82:18 4 5.00
frizshizzle 81:19 4 5.00
Ktak 81:19 4 5.00
brianmonkey 80:20 4 5.00
Richard Paul 75:25 4 5.00
anttimonty 71:29 4 5.00
dstewart 84:16 4 5.25
GP_23 82:18 4 5.25
chirpie 78:22 4 5.25
jling84 78:22 4 5.25
nyg 83:17 4 5.50
MarekM 80:20 4 5.50
Icemage 79:21 4 5.50
swedcrip 78:22 4 5.50
datobin1 77:23 4 5.50
shamus 77:23 4 5.50
online 75:25 4 5.50
dildatonr 77:23 2 5.50
d3code 71:29 3 5.67
Leviathan25 83:17 4 5.75
Newbie 82:18 4 5.75
manikin 80:20 4 5.75
DarkAdept 77:23 4 5.75
caesartheboxer 75:25 4 5.75
Vyrance 74:26 4 5.75
soremekun 84:16 4 6.00
Dreessen 76:24 4 6.00
galperi1 75:25 4 6.00
ICBM99 73:27 4 6.00
desmond212 88:12 3 6.00
audiomixer 75:25 1 6.00
Hanazaki 75:25 1 6.00
rcutlass70 72:28 4 6.25
torse_jack 83:17 4 6.50
ifmracin 76:24 4 6.50
klac 75:25 4 6.50
Maxphoenix5 73:27 2 6.50
bplewis 84:16 4 6.75
ts.enigma 75:25 4 6.75
allargon 67:33 4 6.75
JamesDFarrow 87:13 4 7.00
Entertainment72 78:22 2 7.00
Russell Burrows 88:12 1 7.00
fitprod 76:24 4 7.25
diatom 78:22 4 7.50
aaronwt 74:26 4 8.00
BritInVA 72:28 3 8.00
boneycat 73:27 1 8.00
Jallopy 75:25 4 8.75
30XS955 User 78:22 3 9.00
lotc 72:28 1 9.00
MRMOTA 76:24 3 9.33
MidnightWatcher 71:29 1 10.00
Robert SawyerIII 91:9 4 11.00
omedga66 70:30 1 11.00
theone2 70:30 1 11.00
Z07VETTE 70:30 1 11.00
jwebb1970 60:40 2 12.50
sky69 89:11 2 13.50
Shmack 65:35 4 15.00
norliss 64:36 3 15.00
pkde 66:34 1 15.00
JS23 65:35 1 16.00
Super XP 60:40 3 22.00


Weekly Stats

Week Picks Perfect High Actual Low Mean Median Mode
1 164 6 91* (8) [48] 83 60 (23) [110] 80.55 80.5 78
2 152 9 92 (10) [99] 82 60 (22) [44] 83.13 84 84
3 139 0 99 (25) [135] 74 58 (16) [4] 82.08 82 81
4 136 14 91 (10) [26] 81 60 (21) [96] 77.58 79 78

*Guess of 100% ignored as they are technically impossible due to truncating.

Pricing is favorable for HD DVD's, no real blockbuster Blu-rays, but some new titles to offset the HD DVD's pricing. This should push the numbers to a high 70's to low 80's range. I'll go with

81:19

Give that man a medal!