I was pondering the DVD-R vs. DVD+R, and SACD vs. DVD-Audio "format wars" when it occurred to me: Even if HD DVD folds outright somewhere down the line, there reaches a point at which there are enough HD DVD discs in circulation to justify, if not guarantee, its continued support as a "feature" on HDM players from CEs such as OPPO.

The questions are, what is this point, and has it already been reached or can it be reached before HD DVD fades as a "studio" format altogether?

I guess it depends on what people choose to do five or ten years down the line with the titles they own. If they put them on eBay cheap and it is one I want then I will snap it up.

I would bet that in the sense you have posted here, it is already entrenched. Maybe a shallow trench but entrenched nontheless.

Guys HDM is not competing against each other it is competing against downloads. Five years from now, if Apple and Microsoft has its way, You will have a cable box, xbox, apple tv, etc that will give you HD movies on demand. Will they look good compared to HDM? NO. will the public care that much? NO. $3.99 rental and Cars looks great on the 37-42 inch HD set.

I really am afraid that the battle that we are all watching is the wrong battle. No matter who wins the war will be lost.

I really do think all of us HD DVD and BLURAY are fighting over this decades DVD-A and SACD. Niche products.
Just like in the DVD-a Sacd etc the battle was fought and who won? MP3 because you could download the songs and get 5000 on your ipod. Convenience and marketing beat quality. It sound good enough and the new Higher def downloads will look good enough on the small tv with only 2 speakers. But it will be convenient and will prevail.

Since I am purple the point is moot for me....however I don't expect the HD-DVD's that I already have to stop playing any time soon, and my A30 (and soon to be XA2) will be my default players for upconverting regular dvd's.....which shows no sign of surrenduring to any HD format.;)

I don't think they are competing with downloads as the infostrute for cheep afordble internet just isn't here. Why should I pay $25+ a month just to rent sub-par HD downloads at $3.00 a pop. Unless of its offered over the airwaves witha standalone box. Which is possible. But how many boxes will sell when you won't "own" the movie. Even if its keeped on a HDD all the time. The feeling of ownership isn't as strong.

In this sence their will allways be some form of optical media wether it be HD-DVD, blu-ray or DVD even or flash cards with one movie per "disc". I could see something like that happening the price of flashbased memory reaches 30+GB and sell's at DVD prices...


Back to the orignal question/thought. I think if HD-DVD fails their will be players that can playback HD-DVD as a "Extra". Much like Divix or JPEG,JPG and MP3.

The question is will sony every allow this or will only 2nd and 3rd party players do this. As id guess they will what BD and DVD playback only. If they had their way HD-DVD never was so why add the option.

Now I wonder if toshibia would. As they are the primary makers of HD-DVD players as most players are made buy toshiba including the RCA and xbox ad on.

Agreed. Unless cheaper & bigger bandwidth signal delivery is on the way, the public will still near hard media.

Depends on what you mean by entrenched.

As a point of reference, if history is a guide, in 1984 alone, Betamax sold 2.5M boxes between Sony, Toshiba, Sanyo, NEC and smaller satellite companies, by 1987, it was over for Betamax.

Back then, there's no internet to speak of (outside of USENET and compuserve BBS), nowhere near the discussion forums and blogs we have now, and that one took a while to ramp down.

As a consequence of the internet age, information runs though the enthusiast community much faster, and what we get is a compressed timeline. If the studios, retailers (major decision makers and stakeholders in this industry) really want this to end (as it might be construed these days), the answer could very well be "never", and the timeline for the answer could appear soon.

I was pondering the DVD-R vs. DVD+R, and SACD vs. DVD-Audio "format wars" when it occurred to me: Even if HD DVD folds outright somewhere down the line, there reaches a point at which there are enough HD DVD discs in circulation to justify, if not guarantee, its continued support as a "feature" on HDM players from CEs such as OPPO.

The questions are, what is this point, and has it already been reached or can it be reached before HD DVD fades as a "studio" format altogether?
You'll know it's entrenched when many non enthusiasts have HDM players (willingly or unwillingly) and the industry is talking about the "new improved double hi def format". Until then it's "spin" by those for and against HDM, backed of course, by impressive stats.
One guide will be any +/- rack space allowance in B & M stores like BB, etc. or not...

Agreed. Unless cheaper & bigger bandwidth signal delivery is on the way, the public will still near hard media.

exactly downloading a song is fast no matter what speed the provider is
offering compared to movies i don't see it having the same effect it will
just be another form of hd maybe seeing a small market share.

exactly downloading a song is fast no matter what speed the provider is offering compared to movies i don't see it having the same effect it will just be another form of hd maybe seeing a small market share.

Funny thing is, even though songs are fast to download, and MP3 versions of songs/albums is popular, BB and other B&M stores still have just as many CD's in store to browse through and purchase. Why is that? Because people like to be able to actually hold something they purchase. Consumers like browsing through dozens of actual CD's to look for one they want. They like flipping through seeing the newest CD cover art, even on CD's they don’t plan on buying. The popularity of gift cards helps continue this tradition too. The above reasons also apply to movies on disc.

A disc is tangible. A download is not. Not to mention the fact that some people simply like having a large collection of actual discs in their homes, if for nothing more than to show off their large collection of discs!

This will not change for a long time, and it is why downloading HD movies will not supplant going to a store and purchasing a copy of one's favorite movie on disc. A disc in the hand is worth two downloads in a bush!

My favorite argument for HD DVD going away is that the B&M stores don't want to allocate shelf space for 2 different formats. What I think is hilarious is that we are at the point now (or very soon) that you can only get such and such movie on either BR OR HD DVD, not both. So, it isn't like they are wasting the space unless you argue that they would never stock such and such movie. In that case, they should just stop stocking that movie, regardless of what color case it comes in. So, if you want a certain movie in HD, you have to buy it in its respective format -- you don't have a choice, and neither do the stores.

The diffrence with betamax is the system is different from VHS so a compact combo player is out of the question. With BD,HD it can all be read in 1 case. So making a "combo" player is easy. LG did it already. The HD-DVD side is weak but effective.
Which might be the case for the losing side. Only the "basics" of the disc will playback.

Guys HDM is not competing against each other it is competing against downloads. Five years from now, if Apple and Microsoft has its way,

What do you mean Microsoft???

Sony is pushing harder and faster than M$ is!

http://www.engadgethd.com/2007/10/11/sonys-playstation-3-to-double-as-iptv-set-top-box/

As an above poster said, Beta sold 2.5 million players in 1 year. It clearly still lost, but hung around for years. It did not however havg around for years as a home video format.

Beta and VHS also didnt have a format like DVD to compete with.

It is hard enough to get 1 format "entrenched" VS DVD, much less 2.

IMO the writing is clearly on the wall for studios and retailers.

My favorite argument for HD DVD going away is that the B&M stores don't want to allocate shelf space for 2 different formats. What I think is hilarious is that we are at the point now (or very soon) that you can only get such and such movie on either BR OR HD DVD, not both. So, it isn't like they are wasting the space unless you argue that they would never stock such and such movie. In that case, they should just stop stocking that movie, regardless of what color case it comes in. So, if you want a certain movie in HD, you have to buy it in its respective format -- you don't have a choice, and neither do the stores.

you have to work for one for awhile ,they do have allocated isles.

My favorite argument for HD DVD going away is that the B&M stores don't want to allocate shelf space for 2 different formats. What I think is hilarious is that we are at the point now (or very soon) that you can only get such and such movie on either BR OR HD DVD, not both. So, it isn't like they are wasting the space unless you argue that they would never stock such and such movie. In that case, they should just stop stocking that movie, regardless of what color case it comes in. So, if you want a certain movie in HD, you have to buy it in its respective format -- you don't have a choice, and neither do the stores.
After the initial introduction of a product(and placement $$$), space is allocated by sales , nothing more, nothing less. If you view it as a trend marker, you're looking at the tail end of the trend, not the beginning.

I have my dads collection of home movies. Some are in red reels(super 8) and some in blue. They both play just fine in an old Canon projector he left me before he passed away.

My favorite argument for HD DVD going away is that the B&M stores don't want to allocate shelf space for 2 different formats. What I think is hilarious is that we are at the point now (or very soon) that you can only get such and such movie on either BR OR HD DVD, not both. So, it isn't like they are wasting the space unless you argue that they would never stock such and such movie. In that case, they should just stop stocking that movie, regardless of what color case it comes in. So, if you want a certain movie in HD, you have to buy it in its respective format -- you don't have a choice, and neither do the stores.

Circuit City just stated they WANT to allocate space for 3 different formats.

:)I'm not sure if i'd be "allocating any stock buys" for them^^^:)

Depends on what you mean by entrenched.

As a point of reference, if history is a guide, in 1984 alone, Betamax sold 2.5M boxes between Sony, Toshiba, Sanyo, NEC and smaller satellite companies, by 1987, it was over for Betamax.

Back then, there's no internet to speak of (outside of USENET and compuserve BBS), nowhere near the discussion forums and blogs we have now, and that one took a while to ramp down.

As a consequence of the internet age, information runs though the enthusiast community much faster, and what we get is a compressed timeline. If the studios, retailers (major decision makers and stakeholders in this industry) really want this to end (as it might be construed these days), the answer could very well be "never", and the timeline for the answer could appear soon.

As a counter to your point of reference, from 1984-1987, there was not Amazon or eBay moving $14.99 movies with ease. Also, replicating tapes for Beta was a unique process unto itself, unlike HD DVD, which shares production lines with DVD.

As for your final speculation of when HD DVD would become entrenched, the answer may well be never, but it may also be that it already has achieved enough to be meet the OP's original query for continued support. We will know soon enough, or we won't.

How many titles does HD DVD have? Less than 1000? LD had over 10K. It's pretty hard to sustain a format after HD DVD fold with so few titles to view.

The losing format will have no new content and will effectively die within a year. I'm a bit suprised that people might think the format would survive without content and wirh only 500 total movies. As soon as Toshiba surrenders, it's over for HD-DVD. Copies of the same 500 movies will be on eBay, but that's it.

The losing format will have no new content and will effectively die within a year. I'm a bit suprised that people might think the format would survive without content and wirh only 500 total movies. As soon as Toshiba surrenders, it's over for HD-DVD. Copies of the same 500 movies will be on eBay, but that's it.

Then bye bye HDM. Toshiba isn't going to surrender. There is no reason for them not to continue selling players.

HD DVD just doeesn't have enough studio support to ever become "entrenched" in anything at this point...it's mainly the fly in the ointment of getting one format out there so it can flourish to it's full extent.

What do you mean Microsoft???

Sony is pushing harder and faster than M$ is!

Sony is pushing hard because they're playing catch up. Microsoft has all the pieces in place and also happen to be making money on them.

How many copies are out there of DVHS? That's well received here on this forum, and I can imagine on other parts of the world. People snatched those up as soon as they appeared on the classifieds..


Djoel

Then bye bye HDM. Toshiba isn't going to surrender. There is no reason for them not to continue selling players.

We'll see if Toshiba agrees with your assessment of its best strategy as we move deeper into 2008. One might argue that Toshiba is losing potential Blu-Ray sales and it falling behind in developing Blu-Ray players. And, perhaps more significantly, it is losing the ability to bundle its HDTVs with Blu-Ray players, something that seems to be working for Sony, Sharp, Panasonic, etc. And it can't help to be associated with a format that is losing and will lose. No company wants to be the last one off a sinking ship, as these companies want to symbolize what is new and hot, like Apple for the past few years.

But we'll see.

Agreed. Unless cheaper & bigger bandwidth signal delivery is on the way, the public will still near hard media.

You're assuming it will even be HD. The public will likely be happier with on demand DVD quality than HD disks. Bandwidth needed for H264 encoded DVD level quality (like Netflix on-demand) is relatively low.

On the original topic, I think it'll depend a lot on what the studios do. If they play follow the leader and all drop HD-DVD in the near future, then it'll just die. If Universal sticks with them, then it may be around in the long term. Also though, if demand is too low, then dual format players will not get in to the mainstream which will help to kill HD-DVD once BD player prices come down.

I'm not sure you can compare this format war to the war between SACD and DVD-A, for an important reason: both of these formats have gone WAY beyond what either SACD or DVD-A did. I could play DVD-A's in the early days of that war, as I bought the computer sound card that could play them when it first came out, so I was constantly searching for sources of discs. But in retail stores, I *NEVER* saw more than 10 unique discs in either format at any store. And they were hard to find in those stores, not near normal CD's or DVD's. And they also never hit mass-market stores - I think Circuit City was my best source of DVD-A's, they were not to be found in Fred Meyer, Target, not even music stores that I went to.

Both Blu-Ray and HD-DVD, on the other hand, are all over the place. Video stores have them, department stores have them, grocery stores have them, Wal-Mart has them! Now, this doesn't mean HD-DVD's become entrenched, I'm just saying, you can't compare with DVD-A/SACD versus MP3's or CD's. DVD-A and SACD just never got a good enough start.

SACD is a very niche format yet Sony continues to support it.
if no company ever adds HD DVD playback to their players, you can bet Toshiba will.
Even if HD DVD folds, Toshiba will continue supporting the format through their players and make combo Blu-ray/HD DVD players.

I was pondering the DVD-R vs. DVD+R, and SACD vs. DVD-Audio "format wars" when it occurred to me: Even if HD DVD folds outright somewhere down the line, there reaches a point at which there are enough HD DVD discs in circulation to justify, if not guarantee, its continued support as a "feature" on HDM players from CEs such as OPPO.

The questions are, what is this point, and has it already been reached or can it be reached before HD DVD fades as a "studio" format altogether?

Using your own metric, we can see that HD DVD is not currently "entrenched." It is a format supported on players produced by a single manufacturer, or players designed by that manufacturer and farmed out to others to produce.

Both Blu-Ray and HD-DVD, on the other hand, are all over the place...grocery stores have them...

I agree that BD and HD DVD can be found almost everywhere. But GROCERY STORES? Please do tell which grocery store sells HDM.

Toshiba may well decide to continue to offer HD on its BD players. if it can be done at low enough cost to make them competitive with other companies' BD-only players.

I don't think we will see another company making dual-format players past this year.

I agree that BD and HD DVD can be found almost everywhere. But GROCERY STORES? Please do tell which grocery store sells HDM.


Doesn't Meijer's have them? Is Sam's considered a grocery store? You can buy peanut butter there! :p

I agree that BD and HD DVD can be found almost everywhere. But GROCERY STORES? Please do tell which grocery store sells HDM.

I have seen select HDM titles in "the friendly neighborhood market" (grocery store subsidiary of Wal Mart).

Of course they were only Blu Ray titles......

We'll see if Toshiba agrees with your assessment of its best strategy as we move deeper into 2008. One might argue that Toshiba is losing potential Blu-Ray sales and it falling behind in developing Blu-Ray players. And, perhaps more significantly, it is losing the ability to bundle its HDTVs with Blu-Ray players, something that seems to be working for Sony, Sharp, Panasonic, etc. And it can't help to be associated with a format that is losing and will lose. No company wants to be the last one off a sinking ship, as these companies want to symbolize what is new and hot, like Apple for the past few years.

But we'll see.

Surely you aren't trying to imply that Blu-Ray is new and hot.

A total of 300M was spent on ALL HDM last year. This includes HD and Blu-Ray. Toshiba has earned over 8 BILLION on DVD royalties to date. The notion that they should get off their losing side and joing the whopping success that is Blu-Ray is an absurdity. For Toshiba it would likely be more important to make sure Blu doesn't bite into their royalty pie than to begin Blu production for atleast 3 more years. They CERTAINLY won't be making BD players anytime soon. Outside of the PS3 and the Sony 300 no other SA has sold more than a few thousand players. It simply isn't a profitable arena.

That said, HD certainly does not have the market penetration to be considered entrenched. And in this market it seems unlikely that they ever could. Entrenched presupposes that there are so many players out there it becomes necessary for there to be software support. That simply isn't the case with Sony/BDA throwing plies of cash at companies NOT to support the format.

The losing format will have no new content and will effectively die within a year. I'm a bit suprised that people might think the format would survive without content and wirh only 500 total movies. As soon as Toshiba surrenders, it's over for HD-DVD. Copies of the same 500 movies will be on eBay, but that's it.
Define losing. If Tosh keeps up its player sales rate wrt BD, P&U will continue to publish in HD DVD, IMO, so it may be a very long time to the end.

How many titles does HD DVD have? Less than 1000? LD had over 10K. It's pretty hard to sustain a format after HD DVD fold with so few titles to view.

Last I checked, Blu-Ray and HD-DVD were enarly neck and neck as far as title count. Are you saying you think Blu-Ray is going to go belly up too since there are just as 'few' titles that are Blu?

I agree that BD and HD DVD can be found almost everywhere. But GROCERY STORES? Please do tell which grocery store sells HDM.

HEB Plus here in Central Texas. HEB is about as J6Pack as you can get. They actually routinely *UNDERPRICE* Wal-Mart.

coolhand.

posts like yours is was gets threads like this closed.

8 billion in royalties? when did Toshiba state that? even if true. dvd does not just stop today even if bluray took over.

bda throwing money for company not to support a format. where is that proof? even if it were true, what about paramount going hd-dvd exclusive.

if you however have a well written official signed document from 1 of the CEO of the movie companies that bda paid like $$$ to warner or fox or whatever. please show it. if not. then do not come up with such claims.

tnx

Then bye bye HDM. Toshiba isn't going to surrender. There is no reason for them not to continue selling players.

There's plenty of reason.

Define losing. If Tosh keeps up its player sales rate wrt BD, P&U will continue to publish in HD DVD, IMO, so it may be a very long time to the end.If Toshiba keeps up it player sales rate wrt BD, where last week Toshiba had just 28% of the unit sales for standalones (counting BD, HD DVD, and combo players), then P&U will likely release on Blu-ray too. By, "P&U will continue to publish in HD DVD" did you mean that they will publish exclusively there, or just that they will publish HD DVDs, even if they also put their stuff out on BDs? If Toshiba is getting less than half the standalone player sales as Blu-ray companies without even counting any PS3s (currently selling somewhere in the ballpark of 50,000 per week in North America) and 2 major exclusive studios (although sales for the HD DVD add-on weren't reported), and not long after the drop to $149 MSRP, then Toshiba's percentage would likely go even lower if either Paramount or Universal went neutral.

--Darin

The losing format will have no new content and will effectively die within a year. I'm a bit suprised that people might think the format would survive without content and wirh only 500 total movies. As soon as Toshiba surrenders, it's over for HD-DVD. Copies of the same 500 movies will be on eBay, but that's it.
Not true; new indie and XXX titles will be released even if all the majors drop support. As HD-DVD playback devices proliferate, there will be a market for content that at least some providers will see fit to supply.

Too bad that the indies are dropping support and the XXX studios are publicly admitting the future is Blu-ray and that they are ramping up for it.

Then bye bye HDM. Toshiba isn't going to surrender. There is no reason for them not to continue selling players.

What about them losing money on EVERY player sold?

What about them losing money on EVERY player sold?

Is this official? Where might I find this info?

Too bad that the indies are dropping support and the XXX studios are publicly admitting the future is Blu-ray and that they are ramping up for it.

You wish! The indies are NOT dropping support because it is FAR cheaper to produce on HD-DVD than it is Blu-Ray.

If Toshiba is getting less than half the standalone player sales as Blu-ray companies without even counting any PS3s

Darin, where are you getting those 'figures'?

What about them losing money on EVERY player sold?

Not that selling players for a loss is a good thing but they even if we assume they are doing so (which I have seen no evidence for), it might work at the end.
I don't want to compare game market to standalones because obviously it's apples to oranges; but the point is companies are willing to make some huge losses to gain something. Microsoft lost money (about 5B) for 6years before making Xbox profitable. Sony has done the same with PS2 (at the beginning) and PS3.
A standalone is less advanced and cheaper to produce than powerful consoles like PS3 or Xbox360; so even at a loss Toshiba can maintain it for sometime.

Now all I said above is based on my own assumptions; I'm no insider so I'm not sure how industry works in these situations.

Anyways, I don't worry about what Toshiba will do. I'd like to see prices for movies coming down on both formats, more software support on PCs (so things "cough cough" can be done), better catalog movies and more movies per month. These are what I worry about the most.

If Toshiba keeps up it player sales rate wrt BD, where last week Toshiba had just 28% of the unit sales for standalones (counting BD, HD DVD, and combo players), then P&U will likely release on Blu-ray too. By, "P&U will continue to publish in HD DVD" did you mean that they will publish exclusively there, or just that they will publish HD DVDs, even if they also put their stuff out on BDs? If Toshiba is getting less than half the standalone player sales as Blu-ray companies without even counting any PS3s (currently selling somewhere in the ballpark of 50,000 per week in North America) and 2 major exclusive studios (although sales for the HD DVD add-on weren't reported), and not long after the drop to $149 MSRP, then Toshiba's percentage would likely go even lower if either Paramount or Universal went neutral.

--Darin

Seems to be the new HD DVD mantra. Sell enough players so WB, Disney, and Fox can't ignore them.

Meanwhile Para and Uni will continue to ignore 2x the stand alones and ~50k PS3/week.

Uggh

If Toshiba keeps up it player sales rate wrt BD, where last week Toshiba had just 28% of the unit sales for standalones (counting BD, HD DVD, and combo players), then P&U will likely release on Blu-ray too. By, "P&U will continue to publish in HD DVD" did you mean that they will publish exclusively there, or just that they will publish HD DVDs, even if they also put their stuff out on BDs? If Toshiba is getting less than half the standalone player sales as Blu-ray companies without even counting any PS3s (currently selling somewhere in the ballpark of 50,000 per week in North America) and 2 major exclusive studios (although sales for the HD DVD add-on weren't reported), and not long after the drop to $149 MSRP, then Toshiba's percentage would likely go even lower if either Paramount or Universal went neutral.

--Darin
I don't have numbers on SA sales, however 50,000/week for PS3 is what they were doing last year, which means a linear growth for those. The week-to-week SA sales don't tell us much, it's how many total SA players are out there. Players don't get stale like new movie releases.

BD penetration would have to be really high for P&U to abandon HD DVD in exchange for a [20]% portion of the BD market. We can't be too far off a 60/40 effective player split. Would P&U like 20% of 60 or 100% of 40?

I don't have numbers on SA sales, however 50,000/week for PS3 is what they were doing last year, which means a linear growth for those. The week-to-week SA sales don't tell us much, it's how many total SA players are out there. Players don't get stale like new movie releases.

BD penetration would have to be really high for P&U to abandon HD DVD in exchange for a [20]% portion of the BD market. We can't be too far off a 60/40 effective player split. Would P&U like 20% of 60 or 100% of 40?


They would like both, and will have both soon IMO.

And are you saying that only 20% of BR owners will or will be allowed to buy Uni or Para titles?

Makes sense.

We'll see if Toshiba agrees with your assessment of its best strategy as we move deeper into 2008. One might argue that Toshiba is losing potential Blu-Ray sales and it falling behind in developing Blu-Ray players. And, perhaps more significantly, it is losing the ability to bundle its HDTVs with Blu-Ray players, something that seems to be working for Sony, Sharp, Panasonic, etc. And it can't help to be associated with a format that is losing and will lose. No company wants to be the last one off a sinking ship, as these companies want to symbolize what is new and hot, like Apple for the past few years.

But we'll see.

I guess you haven't seen the pathetic number of BD players that are being sold. Toshiba, Universe, and Paramount aren't losing anything. Toshiba is making enough money from DVD and HDDVD sales to weather this little storm. They won't make any serious money on BD. So, why get in a hurry?

I guess you haven't seen the pathetic number of BD players that are being sold. Toshiba, Universe, and Paramount aren't losing anything. Toshiba is making enough money from DVD and HDDVD sales to weather this little storm. They won't make any serious money on BD. So, why get in a hurry?

So the number of BD players is pathetic, but 1/3 of that number is good enough to keep them afloat? Oh, along with DVD royalties.

So their DVD royalties stop when they begin producing BR? ;)

I guess you haven't seen the pathetic number of BD players that are being sold. Toshiba, Universe, and Paramount aren't losing anything. Toshiba is making enough money from DVD and HDDVD sales to weather this little storm. They won't make any serious money on BD. So, why get in a hurry?

If BD player sales are pathetic then what does that make Toshibas which are 1/2 or a 1/3 of them. And this doesnt include the PS3. Do you think Universal and Paramount are excited that there format only lost 3 to 1 this week instead of 4 to 1? Don't you think they would be excited to end there support of a format that most news outlets are reporting dead, and many stories and studios are dropping?

I guess you haven't seen the pathetic number of BD players that are being sold. Toshiba, Universe, and Paramount aren't losing anything. Toshiba is making enough money from DVD and HDDVD sales to weather this little storm. They won't make any serious money on BD. So, why get in a hurry?

Pathetic number if you don't count the PS3... Shhhhh!

I don't think we will see another company making dual-format players past this year.

I think Denon might include HD DVD support even if it "dies". They are one of the few companies that include SACD and DVD Audio support. They charge a premium on all their players, so the extra licensing fees won't matter to them.

Not true; new indie and XXX titles will be released even if all the majors drop support. As HD-DVD playback devices proliferate, there will be a market for content that at least some providers will see fit to supply.

This is where Sonic stopping sales of the HD DVD version of Scenarist was such a big deal. The only people that will be able to author commercial HD DVDs are companies that already own Scenarist. If a company was thinking about starting to support HD DVD now, they are pretty much out of luck. There will probably be no new indie or XXX support that doesn't already exist. (Of course some companies may sell their HD DVD licences to new companies, but that means that the company selling the license is dropping support since they'll no longer own the software license.)

Do you think Universal and Paramount are excited that there format only lost 3 to 1 this week instead of 4 to 1? Don't you think they would be excited to end there support of a format that most news outlets are reporting dead, and many stories and studios are dropping?
If so, they are selling to 25-33% of the total market and they don't have to compete with Warner, Fox, Disney.... titles. They may be quite happy. If they ever do 1:1 Warner will be gnashing their teeth.

I think Denon might include HD DVD support even if it "dies". They are one of the few companies that include SACD and DVD Audio support. They charge a premium on all their players, so the extra licensing fees won't matter to them.

Many of Denon's players are rebadged Panasonics. Unless Panasonic goes dual (highly unlikely), Denon won't be doing HD DVD anytime soon. It's a losing proposition as far as other CEs are concerned.

If they ever do 1:1 Warner will be gnashing their teeth.

Ahhh.... another case of coulda shoulda woulda :D

If so, they are selling to 25-33% of the total market and they don't have to compete with Warner, Fox, Disney.... titles. They may be quite happy. If they ever do 1:1 Warner will be gnashing their teeth.

These movies are not sold in a vaccuum.

If it is a good title it will sell to more than 20% of the BR market. Your argument doesnt make sense.

Many of Denon's players are rebadged Panasonics. Unless Panasonic goes dual (highly unlikely), Denon won't be doing HD DVD anytime soon. It's a losing proposition as far as other CEs are concerned.

Actually I believe Jeff from Denon recently made a statement on AVS saying they will probably support HD DVD in future players, but that he wasn't able to make it official at this time. Someone else might be able to dig up the actual quote.

If so, they are selling to 25-33% of the total market and they don't have to compete with Warner, Fox, Disney.... titles. They may be quite happy. If they ever do 1:1 Warner will be gnashing their teeth.

They are selling 15-26% of the market this year, and they are still competing with Warner. That percentage will only decrease when Warner stops releasing new titles and the old ones begin to dry up. Im sure they are already gnashing there teeth as Im sure they realize this.

in the beginning denon players were based on panasonic ones, in recent years that`s not been the case.

Actually I believe Jeff from Denon recently made a statement on AVS saying they will probably support HD DVD in future players, but that he wasn't able to make it official at this time. Someone else might be able to dig up the actual quote.

Just remember he is a PR person and he is not held under any oath here. DenonJeff knows that there is a large pro HD DVD group here. Hate to tell you but Denon product decisions don't come from Denon USA. Their products are designed abroad and HD DVD is even more of non factor overseas than it is here.

BD penetration would have to be really high for P&U to abandon HD DVD in exchange for a [20]% portion of the BD market. We can't be too far off a 60/40 effective player split. Would P&U like 20% of 60 or 100% of 40?

I don't understand this 20% of BD market. If/when Transformers is released on Blu-ray it probabley will be the top selling Blu disk for that week. To me if P&U start producing Blu, won't they be competing in 100% of the High Def market?:confused:

They have the majority of the HD DVD market now and their titles have not competed too well with Blu titles this year.

As for the OP IMO HD DVDs aren't entrenched and that probably goes for Bul-ray as of today. End of 2008 I see Blu becoming entrenched.

I will declare Blu-ray has reached nitche status then.:D

As a counter to your point of reference, from 1984-1987, there was not Amazon or eBay moving $14.99 movies with ease. Also, replicating tapes for Beta was a unique process unto itself, unlike HD DVD, which shares production lines with DVD.

As for your final speculation of when HD DVD would become entrenched, the answer may well be never, but it may also be that it already has achieved enough to be meet the OP's original query for continued support. We will know soon enough, or we won't.

There are other parallels. Although my memory is vague on this, others have written that at around 1984, there was massive sales on betamax tapes from rental stores and betamax ownership suddenly jumped. beta diehards were ecstatic at their good fortune, unfortuantely, by 85(?)-86(?) Columbia dropped betamax and others followed. Sanyo also had a beta hifi player at around 85(?) below $300, priced significantly below the VHS decks. Those beta sales turned out to be inventory clearance, but that's only obvious with the benefit of hindsight.

Here's more speculation. We might 'know' (know is such an ambigious word, but by 'know' here, I really mean the last shoe (from a centipede) dropping, since lots of shoes have been dropping since 2007) by the summer (if not sooner), this week's HMM has reports of Warner and Disney 2007 revenue shortfalls from DVD sales, it doesn't take a rocket scientist to figure out these studios will try something to jumpstart their 08 numbers, and given where things stand, if DVD sales continue to decline, the only possible candidate to squeeze the next round of revenues comparable to the decrease from DVD is .... welll?

in the beginning denon players were based on panasonic ones, in recent years that`s not been the case.


Their lower tiered BD player is based on the Panasonic BD30. I know they do some internal designs, but those are usually the uber high priced models that don't make sense for about 99.99% of the buying public.

Actually I believe Jeff from Denon recently made a statement on AVS saying they will probably support HD DVD in future players, but that he wasn't able to make it official at this time. Someone else might be able to dig up the actual quote.

I think denonjeff stated that his company wants to make a player that will play all discs that are available on the market.:D

That is way different than saying they will support HD DVD in the future. I wouldn't hold my breath.

These movies are not sold in a vaccuum.

If it is a good title it will sell to more than 20% of the BR market. Your argument doesnt make sense.
I'm talking long term revenue as being roughly proportional to the number of big studios. If someone has DVD revenues per studio, we might get some idea of what the BD studio/HD DVD studio long term shares might be, if nothing changed.

There are other parallels. Although my memory is vague on this, others have written that at around 1984, there was massive sales on betamax tapes from rental stores and betamax ownership suddenly jumped. Sanyo also had a beta hifi player at around 85(?) that was priced below $300, priced significantly below the VHS decks.

Her'e more speculation. We might know by the summer (if not sooner), this week's HMM has reports of Warner and Disney 2007 revenue shortfalls from DVD sales, it doesn't take a rocket scientist to figure out these studios will try something to jumpstart their 08 numbers, and given where things stand, if DVD sales continue to decline, the only possible candidate to squeeze the next round of revenues comparable to the decrease from DVD is .... welll?


So are trying to say they are going to do HD DVD. Sorry but WHV just got out due to market confusion and they want to let consumers know Blu is the future. HD DVD and BD for that matter are still way to small to make up for the declining DVD sales, but if a single format emerges many consumers will start coming off the fence.

Their lower tiered BD player is based on the Panasonic BD30. I know they do some internal designs, but those are usually the uber high priced models that don't make sense for about 99.99% of the buying public.

I wasn`t referring to the BD model but to the dvd players which are made by funai. but thanks craig, you gave me a nice information. I really loathed the fact that some denons and marantz dvd players were made by funai, because of that I lost belief in those companies. so hearing they are back on the right track with panasonic is great news:). especially as my first dvd player was panasonic. now i can apreciate denon as I did before. do you know if the marantz shares the same panasonic basis?

Darin, where are you getting those 'figures'?Here (for the week ending January 26th):

http://www.twice.com/article/CA6530692.html?rssid=84
Dedicated Blu-ray Disc player sales, which omit video game consoles, represented 65 percent of unit volume share during the period and 69 percent of retail sales dollars, according to the leaked data. HD DVD players accounted for 28 percent of hardware unit sales and 14 percent of overall HD disc retail dollars. The remainder can be attributed to combo player sales share at 6 percent unit sales and 17 percent dollar share.

I'm talking long term revenue as being roughly proportional to the number of big studios. If someone has DVD revenues per studio, we might get some idea of what the BD studio/HD DVD studio long term shares might be, if nothing changed.Nothing changed, as in Warner stops releasing on HD DVD and HD DVD magically keeps the same market share, but with less studios (Warner and New Line)? If HD DVD was the one that was going to have 5 of the top 7 studios exclusive while Blu-ray was the one that was going to have only 2 of the top 7, I doubt you would be claiming long term revenue would be roughly proportional to the number of big studios. I think you would understand that way more people would go toward the side with 5 in the long run than would content themselves with just 2 of 7, especially since the smart ones would know there is way more chance of the 2 on the lower side moving to the side ahead than the other way around. But it takes time, just like Blu-ray has been beating HD DVD for standalone sales handily according to NPD, ever since the Warner announcement (and even with the drop to $149 MSRP by Toshiba). Paramount and Universal know that they can get on the other train (even if they stay neutral) and it will grow, while staying just on the HD DVD side will basically help hold overall sales back for them going forward. Toshiba may be fine with poisoning the HDM water to a degree going forward, but why would Paramount and Universal have such poor business minds that they would be fine with basically poisoning the water they drink? I'm sure they know that they gained by DVD being a single format that won outright, instead of having two formats with neither one having all the major studios. By your theory, if DIVX ever had 10% of the market, then any studio with less than 10% could have just moved to that side, waited for all other studios to abandon it and they raised there marketshare to 10% going forward. But, it didn't work like that. Each studio was better off releasing on DVD than DIVX as far as overall sales for them.

--Darin

So the number of BD players is pathetic, but 1/3 of that number is good enough to keep them afloat? Oh, along with DVD royalties.

So their DVD royalties stop when they begin producing BR? ;)

Nice dodge, but there is not one post that makes a compelling reason for Toshiba to make BD players now, if ever. If all Toshiba has to look forward to is the small amount they will make from a BD player sale, DVD royalties alone will be way more for another decade.

I think denonjeff stated that his company wants to make a player that will play all discs that are available on the market.:D

That is way different than saying they will support HD DVD in the future. I wouldn't hold my breath.

HDDVDs aren't available?

Darin,

Thanks for the link.

HDDVDs aren't available?

Will see in about 6 months.....

Will see in about 6 months.....

Let me save you the effort. There will still be HDDVDs being made in 6 months. You guys wishful thinking has become crazy and kills any shot of a real discussion here. It's now nothing more than an arm of bluray.com.:(

Actually I believe Jeff from Denon recently made a statement on AVS saying they will probably support HD DVD in future players, but that he wasn't able to make it official at this time. Someone else might be able to dig up the actual quote.

Here's DenonJeff's actual quote. Read into it what you will. I'm not trying to imply anything, just providing information for this thread.

"BTW - Denon has not ruled out HD-DVD in our product plans moving forward. Our basic philosophy is if there are shiny discs to be played in the marketplace, we want to have a machine that can play them..."

What is the likelihood the media is going to do a story about a few diehards who refuse to give up the ghost until HD DVD becomes entrenched?

What? The media loves a great comeback-story as much as a double homicide. When the media decides HD-DVD is on a comeback there'll be no stopping the war! :-)

This is where Sonic stopping sales of the HD DVD version of Scenarist was such a big deal. The only people that will be able to author commercial HD DVDs are companies that already own Scenarist. If a company was thinking about starting to support HD DVD now, they are pretty much out of luck. There will probably be no new indie or XXX support that doesn't already exist. (Of course some companies may sell their HD DVD licences to new companies, but that means that the company selling the license is dropping support since they'll no longer own the software license.)
A little off topic, but Scenarist is not the only professional HD DVD authoring tool.

Retailers don't want two formats.

Retailers don't give a crap about having two formats if both are selling in high numbers. The only problem right now is neither format is posting particularly strong sales numbers compared to DVD.

I agree that BD and HD DVD can be found almost everywhere. But GROCERY STORES? Please do tell which grocery store sells HDM.

Fred Meyer's

They have a large selection of Blu-rays now. Small shelf at the bottom with HD DVD's.

Prices are about on par with Best Buy... just without the BOGO sales.

Retailers don't give a crap about having two formats if both are selling in high numbers. The only problem right now is neither format is posting particularly strong sales numbers compared to DVD.


Best Buy stocks an entire isle of books, dvd shelves, and even an electric guitar or two.

I would guess that HDM, which takes up less shelf space than maybe half of all that, generates more money than the above items, even with the small quantities it sells.

So are trying to say they are going to do HD DVD. Sorry but WHV just got out due to market confusion and they want to let consumers know Blu is the future. HD DVD and BD for that matter are still way to small to make up for the declining DVD sales, but if a single format emerges many consumers will start coming off the fence.

If BD cannot make up for the revenue shortfall, then nothing else can. As small is BD and HD DVD numbers are, the downloads and IPTV are even smaller with more logistic problems in terms of equipment and infrastructure to hamper any meaningful revenue from them.

So it is precisely because BD sales are still small, and the DVD shortfall is so large that WHV had to move so quickly.

It took BD 9 months from launch to reach the 1st 1M disk sales. That is tiny.
It took BD another 3 months to reach the 2nd 1M disk sales. That is small.
In Dec '07, 1.7M BD's were sold. Still small.
In Jan '08, 980k+ BDs were sold. Still not much.

Small, yes, but Jan 08 looks like it's 5x of Jan 07. At this same trajectory, if Dec '08 is 5x of Dec '07, that's 8.5M BD disks in one month.

At that point, 8.5M x $30 is roughly $255M, or an annualized $3B, which is no longer small.

Even if BD in 2008 can't fill that DVD revenue gap, the studios have a chance in 2009 to minimize the number of layoffs they have to go through.

I believe in this issue of HMM, WHV already announced a round of lay offs. Some of this is for Bewkes to start with a clean slate to try to improve his bottom line for 08, but still, if his revenue numbers looked good, he would have no reason to reduce his payroll, since those things do cause morale problems.

Best Buy stocks an entire isle of books, dvd shelves, and even an electric guitar or two.

I would guess that HDM, which takes up less shelf space than maybe half of all that, generates more money than the above items, even with the small quantities it sells.

This may be true.

Nice dodge, but there is not one post that makes a compelling reason for Toshiba to make BD players now, if ever. If all Toshiba has to look forward to is the small amount they will make from a BD player sale, DVD royalties alone will be way more for another decade.

Dodge? :rolleyes:

It doesnt matter what Toshiba does. Only Uni and Para matter.

Toshiba doesnt have to make a BR player EVER. But they will eventually.

Maybe they will just turn their noses up on BR because "DVD royalties alone will be way more for another decade".;)

Neo,

Where are you finding those sales numbers for BD? I'm looking for both sides.

Has Sony ever made a DVD player that would play DVD-Audio?

IMHO (and OT) there is no point in which HD DVD is entrenched.

At any time, with any number of HD DVD players two movie studios could decide to cease production on HD DVDs and it would be over.

Not saying it will happen, just saying that there is no magic number that HD DVD is aiming for. I think it is just trying to keep Universal and Paramount at all costs.

Circuit City just stated they WANT to allocate space for 3 different formats.

Given Circuit City's track record in the last few years, I think that's the surest sign that at least one of these formats won't be around much longer. :rolleyes:

Here (for the week ending January 26th):

http://www.twice.com/article/CA6530692.html?rssid=84


Nothing changed, as in Warner stops releasing on HD DVD and HD DVD magically keeps the same market share, but with less studios (Warner and New Line)? If HD DVD was the one that was going to have 5 of the top 7 studios exclusive while Blu-ray was the one that was going to have only 2 of the top 7, I doubt you would be claiming long term revenue would be roughly proportional to the number of big studios. I think you would understand that way more people would go toward the side with 5 in the long run than would content themselves with just 2 of 7, especially since the smart ones would know there is way more chance of the 2 on the lower side moving to the side ahead than the other way around. But it takes time, just like Blu-ray has been beating HD DVD for standalone sales handily according to NPD, ever since the Warner announcement (and even with the drop to $149 MSRP by Toshiba). Paramount and Universal know that they can get on the other train (even if they stay neutral) and it will grow, while staying just on the HD DVD side will basically help hold overall sales back for them going forward. Toshiba may be fine with poisoning the HDM water to a degree going forward, but why would Paramount and Universal have such poor business minds that they would be fine with basically poisoning the water they drink? I'm sure they know that they gained by DVD being a single format that won outright, instead of having two formats with neither one having all the major studios. By your theory, if DIVX ever had 10% of the market, then any studio with less than 10% could have just moved to that side, waited for all other studios to abandon it and they raised there marketshare to 10% going forward. But, it didn't work like that. Each studio was better off releasing on DVD than DIVX as far as overall sales for them.

--Darin
DIVX has more DRM philosophy in common with BD, so that's not a good comparison. If as you say 5/7 is the final determinant, why is P&U holding back poisoning the water?

But isn't it the case that those freebie BD players found their way through cash registers? Those "buyers" didn't choose the player, they chose the TV or the BOGO deal.

Optical media based high definition is busy eating its own while upconverted standard definition dvd's continue to dominate, providing time for downloading to work its way into the frey for folks who care more about convenince than quality.
As far as I'm concerned - HD-DVD is already entrenched - at least in this house. :cool:

Neo,

Where are you finding those sales numbers for BD? I'm looking for both sides.

The 9 months to 1M and 3 months for 2nd M came from a sales chart that BDA unveiled - it's floating around the format war forum sites in several threads.

The 1.7M in December (along with other numbers) came from a USA today article that was dissected by Grubert in another web site.

980k was an estimate of wk1-wk4 of sales by combining a few numbers together, working backwards from the Feb wk1 sales units discussed in another thread that gave the 74:26 ratios.

Similar numbers for HD DVD can be derived by working backwards from the YTD and weekly numbers since this last week has actual numbers. (The rounding to percentage will introduce errors, but since we have only 5 weeks so far, the round off errors are still reasonable.

The trouble for HD DVD is that if any of it's last remaining studios fold soon, there may only ever be about 250-300 exclusive titles made for the format.

I believe that HD-DVD now more than ever is a format for the masses unlike BD where it's still in a niche market. Delete the PS3 sales to see the numbers. And why are sooo many BD players being sold yet the software side doesn't keep up? At least the HDDVD does.

I believe that HD-DVD now more than ever is a format for the masses unlike BD where it's still in a niche market. Delete the PS3 sales to see the numbers. And why are sooo many BD players being sold yet the software side doesn't keep up? At least the HDDVD does.

What are you talking about? The Hardware for BD have been outselling the Hardware for HD quite handily since Jan 4 (and for most of december by most reports) and the software has more then beat that pace. Also, why would you delete the PS3? Should the studios delete it? It is what it is, and what it is a phenominal BD player.

HD DVD become entrenced when monkeys fly out of my ...
Give it up!...
Do you realize how foolish you guys look each day these posts show up?...
BD won. Get over it. When will HD DVD become 'entrenched'? Thanks for the laugh :DYou know, I posted my question about "entrenchment" hoping for an intelligent discourse on whether there's reason for hope for those who've made a significant investment in movies on HD DVD, or if they'll just be SOL when their players finally give up the ghost. If I'd wanted puerile fanboy vitriol, I would have posted on blu-ray.com.

What? The media loves a great comeback-story as much as a double homicide. When the media decides HD-DVD is on a comeback there'll be no stopping the war! :-)I nominate this for Quote of the day... ROFLMAO!

IMHO (and OT) there is no point in which HD DVD is entrenched.

At any time, with any number of HD DVD players two movie studios could decide to cease production on HD DVDs and it would be over.

Not saying it will happen, just saying that there is no magic number that HD DVD is aiming for. I think it is just trying to keep Universal and Paramount at all costs.I'm not suggesting that HD DVD will become entrenched in a significant marketing role, but rather as a legacy format that some CE's will choose to support. The way I look at it is this: If the parts that enable dual-format come down in price to the point where it only costs the CE $10 or so per player to include, but will net an additional $50 at the register, then why not? By the time this is all said and done, there will be many millions of HD DVD discs in the wild and, since the form factor is identical, the cost to support it indefinitely should be minimal.

What are you talking about? The Hardware for BD have been outselling the Hardware for HD quite handily since Jan 4 (and for most of december by most reports) and the software has more then beat that pace. Also, why would you delete the PS3? Should the studios delete it? It is what it is, and what it is a phenominal BD player.

Not all PS3 owners buy movies or will buy very little of them. Have you ever looked at the BD software/hardware ratio and the same for HDDVD? There are fewer HDDVD players but each owner buys more movies.

I expect Denon/Marantz to offer a dual format player at the end of the year. Then HD DVD will be entrenched.

And once we see the twin disk on the market Warner will go neutral again. I guess Ben Hur will already be a release on both formats.

And who knows - if the twin disk really takes off, it might even be a HD DVD exclusive release. What a great win this would be for all customers.

Many of Denon's players are rebadged Panasonics. Unless Panasonic goes dual (highly unlikely), Denon won't be doing HD DVD anytime soon.
Their lower tiered BD player is based on the Panasonic BD30. I know they do some internal designs, but those are usually the uber high priced models that don't make sense for about 99.99% of the buying public.
Craig, your only example seems to be the 2500. Panasonic has never supported SACD, yet every Denon model except for their two lowest are dual format for high-res audio. Denon has publicly said at least twice that they are interested in doing a df hd player.
BTW - Denon has not ruled out HD-DVD in our product plans moving forward. Our basic philosophy is if there are shiny discs to be played in the marketplace, we want to have a machine that can play them...

and

ListenUp: So you would consider doing a combo player with Blu-ray and HD DVD?

Jeff Talmadge: That's probably our number one consideration at this point in time. They're just starting to come out from some of the major players — obviously, Samsung has introduced theirs. They'll be out this fall, while the LG player, you know, it's not a true HD DVD player — it's not a licensed HD DVD product. LG has to make their own logo, it doesn't display menus for movies, and all this other stuff. So Samsung's going to be the first true combo player. And hats off to them.
http://www.listenup.com/content/partner_stores/denon/talmadge.aug.07.php

Jeff Talmadge's interview in August 2007 was a LONG time ago in consumer electronics terms. New combo players are as likely as BD/VHS combos. No realistic market for them.

There is as much chance of Warner going neutral as there is of Sony going neutral, and for all the statistics about how many movies people buy on an individual basis, the fact remains that BD titles VASTLY outsell HD titles. Hugely, overwhelmingly, any way you look at it. Do you think the studios care more about how many players are sold by hardware manufacturers than they care about how many movies they actually sell themselves?

Jeff Talmadge's interview in August 2007 was a LONG time ago in consumer electronics terms. New combo players are as likely as BD/VHS combos. No realistic market for them.

Like those SACD/DVDA players that Denon is so fond of?:confused:

Jeff Talmadge's interview in August 2007 was a LONG time ago in consumer electronics terms. New combo players are as likely as BD/VHS combos. No realistic market for them.
How about Jeff's AVS quote from January 30, 2008? Why does Denon continue to support SACD and DVD-A? This would be a one-drive solution; not some Frankenstein VCR combo.

You mean the one where he says they "haven't ruled it out?"

If you guys want to cling to that as a statement of support, have at it.

And my point wasn't the Frankensteinian aspects - it's that there is no realistic market for them. What small demand for them may exist will be satisfied by Toshiba.

If the numbers are the same by the end of the year and support studio is the same, what would it mean for Toshiba?

The losing format will have no new content and will effectively die within a year. I'm a bit suprised that people might think the format would survive without content and wirh only 500 total movies. As soon as Toshiba surrenders, it's over for HD-DVD. Copies of the same 500 movies will be on eBay, but that's it.

As of this moment Paramount, Universal Studios, and Dreamworks are still exclusive. The three studios have a very large catalog of titles and are still releasing day & date block busters that can ONLY be found on HD-DVD.

Until this changes.. there will always be content for HD-DVD and Blu-Ray owners will still not have access to all the movies in HDM.

To name a few: American Gangster, Bee Movie, Beowulf, Into the Wild.

It's really not over until one format has access to titles from ALL the major studios.

You know, I posted my question about "entrenchment" hoping for an intelligent discourse on whether there's reason for hope for those who've made a significant investment in movies on HD DVD, or if they'll just be SOL when their players finally give up the ghost. If I'd wanted puerile fanboy vitriol, I would have posted on blu-ray.com.

I reported that post but nothing happened.

And my point wasn't the Frankensteinian aspects - it's that there is no realistic market for them. What small demand for them may exist will be satisfied by Toshiba.
And my point was that a one-drive solution for all shiny discs makes the R&D of a universal player realistic. Plextor just announced two new dual format drives. You keep arguing the lack of a market for such a player, but have you seen the long list of SACD/DVD-A capable players? Where is that market? Companies like Denon service the audiophile/videophile niche that many early adopters fall into.

You know, I posted my question about "entrenchment" hoping for an intelligent discourse on whether there's reason for hope for those who've made a significant investment in movies on HD DVD, or if they'll just be SOL when their players finally give up the ghost.


To become "entrenched" the format would need to

1) Establish a unqiue value add feature(s) in the HD marketplace

2) Build a sizeable ownership base that values those feature(s).

The format needs something unique to stake it's value in the HD market otherwise it is attempting to do the same thing that blu-ray format is doing but with far less industry support.

IMO hd dvd has only a few real consumer facing value adds that blu-ray does not either currently offer or indicate it will offer in the future.

The most obvious consumer facing value is DVD disk compatiblity for standard dvd players. The other possible values which a few consumers may see worthwhile are lack of region coding, easier access to low cost recordability (better support for HD DVD9) and easier lowcost authoring for small content producers.

For mass market appeal, outside of hybrid disks the hd dvd format is almost entirely redundant to the blu-ray format from a consumer standpoint. That format feature has been hardly marketed and entirely underused so as a result there is nothing to "entrench" a value add in consumers mind for hd dvd as format.

Possibilities for entrenching hd dvd as a valuable part of the HDM market are explored and debated in several threads here including this one (http://www.avsforum.com/avs-vb/showthread.php?p=13035572#post13035572) however at least one Hollywood studio would need to commited to upgrading standard dvd disks this way.

Outside of this type of scenario it's hard to imagine hd dvd surviving let alone becoming "entrenched". There simply is not enough to distinguish it's value from Blu-ray as an HD only format.

If I'd wanted puerile fanboy vitriol, I would have posted on blu-ray.com.

Given that hd dvd group (Is that anyting more than Toshiba now?) has not laid out anything in a the way of a plan for the format's future content what is there for it's fans to rally around?

Is it any wonder that the only "puerile fanboys" left are of the blu variety?

Here (for the week ending January 26th):

http://www.twice.com/article/CA6530692.html?rssid=84


Nothing changed, as in Warner stops releasing on HD DVD and HD DVD magically keeps the same market share, but with less studios (Warner and New Line)? If HD DVD was the one that was going to have 5 of the top 7 studios exclusive while Blu-ray was the one that was going to have only 2 of the top 7, I doubt you would be claiming long term revenue would be roughly proportional to the number of big studios. I think you would understand that way more people would go toward the side with 5 in the long run than would content themselves with just 2 of 7, especially since the smart ones would know there is way more chance of the 2 on the lower side moving to the side ahead than the other way around. But it takes time, just like Blu-ray has been beating HD DVD for standalone sales handily according to NPD, ever since the Warner announcement (and even with the drop to $149 MSRP by Toshiba). Paramount and Universal know that they can get on the other train (even if they stay neutral) and it will grow, while staying just on the HD DVD side will basically help hold overall sales back for them going forward. Toshiba may be fine with poisoning the HDM water to a degree going forward, but why would Paramount and Universal have such poor business minds that they would be fine with basically poisoning the water they drink? I'm sure they know that they gained by DVD being a single format that won outright, instead of having two formats with neither one having all the major studios. By your theory, if DIVX ever had 10% of the market, then any studio with less than 10% could have just moved to that side, waited for all other studios to abandon it and they raised there marketshare to 10% going forward. But, it didn't work like that. Each studio was better off releasing on DVD than DIVX as far as overall sales for them.

--Darin

If Paramount and Universal go Blu they may really be poisoning the water they drink! Why buy into something one of your major competitors controls? Why add to the coffers of a competitor? With BD Sony has huge leverage and control over their competitors' product and that puts those participating studios at a major disadvantage. The BD studios may see the short term benefits of making money with BD, while others (Paramount and Universal) may be looking at the long term potential pain! I sure wouldn't want a competitor having any type of control over my business - especially a product I may become financially dependent on - who knows when and how they might exert some influence over me that gives them an advantage?

If this isn't the reason then the only other one must be that they're each waiting for Sony to ante up with something more than the 1/2 Billion WB got. :D

Cheers,

Grant

To answer the OP's question, in my opinion, for HD DVD to keep ticking, it has to survive long enough that dual format players such as the LG and Samsung ones start to seriously eat in the player sales pie. When that happens, we'll see other manufacturers jump on the dual format bandwagon and then HD DVD will stay "entranched".

Look at the Best Buy ad for this week : a LG-BH200 that plays both formats is only $100 more than the Panasonic BD30 that only plays Blu-Ray. For $100 price difference, why wouldn't you buy the player that plays everything ? And it's $100 now, but by year's end, the difference will be even less.

I expect Denon/Marantz to offer a dual format player at the end of the year. Then HD DVD will be entrenched.

And once we see the twin disk on the market Warner will go neutral again. I guess Ben Hur will already be a release on both formats.

And who knows - if the twin disk really takes off, it might even be a HD DVD exclusive release. What a great win this would be for all customers.
That's quite a "wish list" you have there.
The fact is, the majority of the big studio's have decided which format will get 70% of the HDM discs and the other 30% will soon follow if they want their piece of the revenue.

As far as dual format players, I say the currently released ones and any annoucements were without the consideration of the Warner annoucement. Spin it all you want but dual format players are a thing of the past unless Toshiba is going to release one to save face their investors.
When I was at Best Buy yesterday, their return table had 10 HD-A3's, 3 LG B200's and 1 Sharp Blu-ray player.
Now, when the return table is right next to the new HD DVD players and the returns are plenty for $99, what is that saying to the potential consumer of HDM about HD DVD ?
Also, Best Buy is selling/clearancing Toshiba DVD players regularly sold for $49 for $9.99. Not sure what that means but it seems that Toshiba is liquidating another DVD player line, which probably sends the consumer a signal that perhaps Toshiba is on it's way out on DVD and HD DVD at these prices when all others are well above their liquidation prices for DVD and HD DVD players.

That's quite a "wish list" you have there.
The fact is, the majority of the big studio's have decided which format will get 70% of the HDM discs and the other 30% will soon follow if they want their piece of the revenue.

As far as dual format players, I say the currently released ones and any annoucements were without the consideration of the Warner annoucement. Spin it all you want but dual format players are a thing of the past unless Toshiba is going to release one to save face their investors.
When I was at Best Buy yesterday, their return table had 10 HD-A3's, 3 LG B200's and 1 Sharp Blu-ray player.
Now, when the return table is right next to the new HD DVD players and the returns are plenty for $99, what is that saying to the potential consumer of HDM about HD DVD ?
Also, Best Buy is selling/clearancing Toshiba DVD players regularly sold for $49 for $9.99. Not sure what that means but it seems that Toshiba is liquidating another DVD player line, which probably sends the consumer a signal that perhaps Toshiba is on it's way out on DVD and HD DVD at these prices when all others are well above their liquidation prices for DVD and HD DVD players.

This is all anecdotal "evidence". There are more open box Blu-Ray players at my Best Buy than there are open box HD DVD players, but that doesn't mean anything. And all the players are sold at MSRP except for the LG-BH200 this week. Also, what else did you expect after the Warner announcement ? Don't forget people had until the 31st of january to bring back those HD DVD players, so it's very possible these were not put back on the shelves until this week.

Also, Best Buy is selling/clearancing Toshiba DVD players regularly sold for $49 for $9.99. Not sure what that means but it seems that Toshiba is liquidating another DVD player line, which probably sends the consumer a signal that perhaps Toshiba is on it's way out on DVD and HD DVD at these prices when all others are well above their liquidation prices for DVD and HD DVD players.

At the same time Best Buy is giving away HD-DVD players with purchases of audio systems. Walmart is selling out of HD-DVD players.

People are still buying them. That should be a big concern to the Bluray folks because it could easily turn into a large population of owners very quickly. THEN the 5 of 7 will want a piece of that revenue -- paving the way for Dual Format forever. There is a much larger percentage of the population who can afford a $149 HDM player vs. the percentage of the population who can afford a $399 game console.

http://news.punchjump.com/article.php?id=5548


In the Feb. 10 circular, customers who purchase a $899.97 Yamaha / Klipsch audio package will receive Toshiba Corp.'s HD-A3 HD DVD Player at no cost.

Best Buy is also advertising a 'Buy 1 Get 1 Free' promotion for select HD DVD titles.

The offer is the latest to spur sales of high-definition products.

At the same time Best Buy is giving away HD-DVD players with purchases of audio systems. Walmart is selling out of HD-DVD players.[/url]


It will be interesting if these retail stores choose to "re stock" these players. That will decide if HD DVD is "entrenched".

At the same time Best Buy is giving away HD-DVD players with purchases of audio systems. Walmart is selling out of HD-DVD players.


Just a small correction, the player being offered is an A30, not A3.

As of this moment Paramount, Universal Studios, and Dreamworks are still exclusive. The three studios have a very large catalog of titles and are still releasing day & date block busters that can ONLY be found on HD-DVD.

Until this changes.. there will always be content for HD-DVD and Blu-Ray owners will still not have access to all the movies in HDM.

To name a few: American Gangster, Bee Movie, Beowulf, Into the Wild.

It's really not over until one format has access to titles from ALL the major studios.

Curious as to what are all the Dreamworks titles as I honestly can't think of many?

Define losing. If Tosh keeps up its player sales rate wrt BD, P&U will continue to publish in HD DVD, IMO, so it may be a very long time to the end.

Losing is either Toshiba making Blu-Rays or Universal and Paramount going neutral or dropping HD-DVD. At that point, HD-DVD as a format will be effectively dead.

And I don't think it is necessarily the case that Univeral and Paramount will go down with the HD-DVD ship. Blu-Ray is now outselling HD-DVD on the software side by a 3-1 to 5-1 margin and at least a 2-1 margin on the hardware side, and that excludes the PS3. I think that they will eventually make the same choice as Warner that a single format is best for the industry, if Toshiba does not make the choice before them.

Surely you aren't trying to imply that Blu-Ray is new and hot.

A total of 300M was spent on ALL HDM last year. This includes HD and Blu-Ray. Toshiba has earned over 8 BILLION on DVD royalties to date. The notion that they should get off their losing side and joing the whopping success that is Blu-Ray is an absurdity. For Toshiba it would likely be more important to make sure Blu doesn't bite into their royalty pie than to begin Blu production for atleast 3 more years. They CERTAINLY won't be making BD players anytime soon. Outside of the PS3 and the Sony 300 no other SA has sold more than a few thousand players. It simply isn't a profitable arena.


Yes, Blu-Ray is the new thing for home video. All new formats and technologies start small, so it doesn't make much sense to look at the numbers now. What has happened is that we're on the way to a single format and there's already millions of players in the wild (including the PS3), with major retailers carrying HDM. Companies are looking at potential sales and profits, not just immediate sales and profits.

Not true; new indie and XXX titles will be released even if all the majors drop support. As HD-DVD playback devices proliferate, there will be a market for content that at least some providers will see fit to supply.

I have my doubts that smaller companies would release HD-DVDs if the majors stoped supporting it and players are either no being sold or are barely selling. When that happens, Blu-Ray production prices will decline and it will probably make little sense to do anything other than release on DVD and Blu-Ray. Why chase after a tiny little market of HD-DVD owners when there's a much bigger and growing Blu-Ray market? (And, since many HD-DVD owners are early adopters, they'll probably have Blu-Ray in short order anyhow.) I think the notion that indies and porn somehow keep HD-DVD alive if the majors abandon it is rather far-fetched.

I guess you haven't seen the pathetic number of BD players that are being sold. Toshiba, Universe, and Paramount aren't losing anything. Toshiba is making enough money from DVD and HDDVD sales to weather this little storm. They won't make any serious money on BD. So, why get in a hurry?

I'm not sure the numbers are "pathetic" at this point in the format's life cycle. I think Universal and Paramount want a single format and will realize that supporting a doomed format is hindering overall HDM sales and potentially limiting a market they want to be in. Again, it is not immediate sales, it is an investment in a market that could potentially supplant DVD and allow studios to re-sell their content on yet another medium. These early efforts are investments in the future, not just the present.

Curious as to what are all the Dreamworks titles as I honestly can't think of many?

http://www.imdb.com/company/co0040938/

Catalog or potential day & date? IMDB lists a catalog of about 140 with another 30-40 coming soon. The last release was Transformers. Hardly a "not demanded" film.

We should also note that if Dreamworks releases HALF of their catalog titles on HD-DVD, HD-DVD would technically have more content available than Blu-ray does.

# Puss in Boots (2010) ... Production Company
# Shrek Goes Fourth (2010) ... Production Company
# Transformers 2 (2009) ... Production Company
# I Love You, Man (2009) ... Production Company
# Hotel for Dogs (2009) ... Production Company
# 2:22 (2009) ... Production Company
# Enlisted (2009) ... Production Company
# Hammer Down (2009) ... Production Company
# The Hands of Shang-Chi (2009) ... Production Company
# Lincoln (2009) ... Production Company
# Old School Dos (2009) ... Production Company
# "The Pacific" (2009) (mini) ... Production Company
# The Ring Three (2009) ... Production Company
# Route 66 (2009) ... Production Company
# A Thousand Words (2009) ... Production Company
# Untitled Moon Project (2009) ... Production Company
# A Tale of Two Sisters (2008) ... Production Company
# Ghost Town (2008/II) ... Production Company
# Eagle Eye (2008) ... Production Company
# Tropic Thunder (2008) ... Production Company
# The Ruins (2008) ... Production Company
# Class Act (2008) ... Production Company
# She's Out of My League (2008) ... Production Company
# The Soloist (2008) ... Production Company
# When Worlds Collide (2008) ... Production Company
# Sweeney Todd: The Demon Barber of Fleet Street (2007) ... Production Company
# Bee Movie (2007) ... Production Company
# The Kite Runner (2007) ... Production Company
# "HBO First Look: Making 'The Heartbreak Kid' (#14.24)" (2007) ... Production Company
# The Heartbreak Kid (2007) ... Production Company
# Things We Lost in the Fire (2007) ... Production Company

I have my doubts that smaller companies would release HD-DVDs if the majors stoped supporting it and players are either no being sold or are barely selling.True, but players *are* being sold in large numbers, and those numbers should increase as hardware costs drop (and the cost of adding HD-DVD support to HDM drives becomes trivial).

For mass market appeal, outside of hybrid disks the hd dvd format is almost entirely redundant to the blu-ray format from a consumer standpoint.

You should read your own sentences and think for a second. If they are completely redundant and have the same performance, the cheaper price will get mass market appeal, no?

The problem is the content not the function. Sony and the rest of the BR studios are controlling the content so HD DVD has little chance at long term without some changes. And why no one thinks this is anti consumer is beyond me...

True, but players *are* being sold in large numbers, and those numbers should increase as hardware costs drop (and the cost of adding HD-DVD support to HDM drives becomes trivial).

And with the XBOX Addon price cut.. that *could* equate to a lot of potential XBOX 360 owners jumping into HDM offsetting any PS3 effect.

You should read your own sentences and think for a second. If they are completely redundant and have the same performance, the cheaper price will get mass market appeal, no?

The problem is the content not the function. Sony and the rest of the BR studios are controlling the content so HD DVD has little chance at long term without some changes. And why no one thinks this is anti consumer is beyond me...

Exactly. BUT.. Studios don't own Blu-ray. Which is Toshiba's "last ditch effort".

Warner could at the end of their contractual obligation (when they have announced they will stop producing HD-DVD) decide to renag and say "Due to many consumers choosing the value of HD-DVD, we have decided to continue publishing HD-DVD discs."

Easy as pie.

They all want money. If by May/June we have HD-DVD back on track again with a HUGE number of players in circulation, expect to see the exclusive studios flop back again.

Right or wrong. It's all about money.

If you are currently selling YOUR product to 3 million owners of someone else's product and then you have the opportunity to sell YOUR product to 1.5 million owners of that someone else's competition's product.. why not?

4.5 million customers is always better than 3 million. Especially if the only think keeping you from making an additional 50% revenue is that someone else want's to make money on their product.. something you have no stake in.

We should also note that if Dreamworks releases HALF of their catalog titles on HD-DVD, HD-DVD would technically have more content available than Blu-ray does.

They have only released 7 titles on HD DVD in two years.

And with the XBOX Addon price cut.. that *could* equate to a lot of potential XBOX 360 owners jumping into HDM offsetting any PS3 effect.
And, there are PC drives -- there have to be many more like myself who prefer HTPCs to set-top players.

Warner could at the end of their contractual obligation (when they have announced they will stop producing HD-DVD) decide to renag and say "Due to many consumers choosing the value of HD-DVD, we have decided to continue publishing HD-DVD discs."

Easy as pie.

They all want money. If by May/June we have HD-DVD back on track again with a HUGE number of players in circulation, expect to see the exclusive studios flop back again.

Right or wrong. It's all about money.

Yes and if the reported 400+million dollar payoff from the BDA is even remotely true, Warner wouldn't make that much on HDM for 2 years. It would be stupid for them to go back with HD DVD at the moment.

The fact that you bring up points that Warner might stay neutral is pretty darn funny. It's not happening.

Yes and if the reported 400+million dollar payoff from the BDA is even remotely true, Warner wouldn't make that much on HDM for 2 years. It would be stupid for them to go back with HD DVD at the moment.

The fact that you bring up points that Warner might stay neutral is pretty darn funny. It's not happening.

If the payoff is true (it likely is).. then you are correct. They signed some blood deal with Sony. Period.

If there is no pay off (as everyone seems to claim)... Warner could very well go neutral once again.. especially if Sony's press starts to dwindle once the profile/BD+ fiasco finally comes to pass. Negative press could doom Bluray quickly.. then what does Warner do? Stay with the sinking ship?

http://www.news.com/8301-10784_3-9867815-7.html?tag=head

"a class action complaint has been filed against Samsung for selling "defective" Blu-ray players--most notably the BD-P1200. The main complaint is that the BD-P1200 hasn't been able to play certain Blu-ray discs, and although it doesn't specify which movies, we personally have experienced issues with Live Free or Die Hard, Rescue Dawn, and Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End. "

Bad press could destory the Blu-ray brand.

If the payoff is true (it likely is).. then you are correct. They signed some blood deal with Sony. Period.

If there is no pay off (as everyone seems to claim)... Warner could very well go neutral once again.. especially if Sony's press starts to dwindle once the profile/BD+ fiasco finally comes to pass. Negative press could doom Bluray quickly.. then what does Warner do? Stay with the sinking ship?

http://www.news.com/8301-10784_3-9867815-7.html?tag=head

"a class action complaint has been filed against Samsung for selling "defective" Blu-ray players--most notably the BD-P1200. The main complaint is that the BD-P1200 hasn't been able to play certain Blu-ray discs, and although it doesn't specify which movies, we personally have experienced issues with Live Free or Die Hard, Rescue Dawn, and Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End. "

Bad press could destory the Blu-ray brand.

You mean the hoped for/prayed for but showing no sign of materializing profile/BD+ fiasco?:rolleyes:

It will be interesting if these retail stores choose to "re stock" these players. That will decide if HD DVD is "entrenched".

Decided to do yo BB and buy 2for1's on HDDVD. Yes, they are restocking Toshiba's A3's mostly. Only a few left over on the restock. Walmart looks not to be restocking them nor the software. They don't even seem to be restocking BR software which is very odd.

They signed some blood deal with Sony. Period.

Paramount/Dreamworks signed the same "blood" deal. So you can't just point out Sony (it was the BDA by the way) Toshiba is/was just as guilty.

If there is no pay off (as everyone seems to claim)... Warner could very well go neutral once again.. especially if Sony's press starts to dwindle once the profile/BD+ fiasco finally comes to pass. Negative press could doom Bluray quickly.. then what does Warner do? Stay with the sinking ship?

http://www.news.com/8301-10784_3-9867815-7.html?tag=head

"a class action complaint has been filed against Samsung for selling "defective" Blu-ray players--most notably the BD-P1200. The main complaint is that the BD-P1200 hasn't been able to play certain Blu-ray discs, and although it doesn't specify which movies, we personally have experienced issues with Live Free or Die Hard, Rescue Dawn, and Pirates of the Caribbean: At World's End. "

Bad press could destory the Blu-ray brand.


The only person that cares about this lawsuit are owners of Samsung 1200 and Samsung. That lawsuit has nothing to do with 1.1 or BD+. It has to do with the lack of compatibility with certain titles. Which you can't prove has to do with BD+ or profile issues, probably java issues. I guess the court can decide.:D

You mean the hoped for/prayed for but showing no sign of materializing profile/BD+ fiasco?:rolleyes:

I am specifically thinking about what will happen to all the current non-ps3 Blu-ray player owners when the final spec discs become the standard later this year and they can't use any of the final spec features.

That fiasco.

Paramount/Dreamworks signed the same "blood" deal. So you can't just point out Sony (it was the BDA by the way) Toshiba is/was just as guilty.

Agreed. ALL the studios are anti-consumer. Not just Warner.


The only person that cares about this lawsuit are owners of Samsung 1200 and Samsung. That lawsuit has nothing to do with 1.1 or BD+. It has to do with the lack of compatibility with certain titles. Which you can't prove has to do with BD+ or profile issues. I guess the court can decide.:D

It's already hit the press on Friday. I don't think many potential Blu-ray player owners are going to jump in full of optimism and spend $400+ on a Blu-ray player with issues like these making the forefront.

HD DVD is already entrenched. I know 3 others besides myself that have a player and they are always buying and renting HD DVD's at a pretty consistent rate. All their librarys
are growing, not decreasing so that tells me, they like myself will be doing this for the forseeable future regardless of what happens to the format war.

DIVX has more DRM philosophy in common with BD, so that's not a good comparison.

I'm sorry. I thought HD DVD used AACS. Guess I must have been wrong.




Look at the Best Buy ad for this week : a LG-BH200 that plays both formats is only $100 more than the Panasonic BD30 that only plays Blu-Ray. For $100 price difference, why wouldn't you buy the player that plays everything ? And it's $100 now, but by year's end, the difference will be even less.


There is a much larger percentage of the population who can afford a $149 HDM player vs. the percentage of the population who can afford a $399 game console.

So which is it gentlemen? Is $100 the end of the world or no big thing?

I'm sorry. I thought HD DVD used AACS. Guess I must have been wrong.

So which is it gentlemen? Is $100 the end of the world or no big thing?

Before the Warner announcement.. $100 was the end of it all.

After. Probably not. Unless the stores push the hardware and software (which I don't see them doing).

Will it fend off Blu-ray and prevent a single dominating format? YES. As long as Paramount and Universal continue to not release a single title on Bluray.

Agreed. ALL the studios are anti-consumer. Not just Warner.

I will agree with you partially. According to ALL hdm sales data, the consumer has chosen Blu Ray for well over a year now.


It's already hit the press on Friday. I don't think many potential Blu-ray player owners are going to jump in full of optimism and spend $400+ on a Blu-ray player with issues like these making the forefront.

I doubt that press will have as much impact as every newspaper, news show and blog stating "blu ray wins the format war" after the Warner announcement.

It is impossible for HD DVD to survive now.

1. No CE support.
2. No profibility in players (I would bet they are losing $ on every player sold).
3. Not enough studio support.
4. Can't win a sales week in hardware/software despite HUGE price cuts.

I am specifically thinking about what will happen to all the current non-ps3 Blu-ray player owners when the final spec discs become the standard later this year and they can't use any of the final spec features.

That fiasco.

When they put those disks in their 1.0 or 1.1 players the movie will play. This is where you and I differ I guess. I think most people realize they need to actually connect to the internet to access online features. And if that was important to them they would have checked that before they purchased their player.

Decided to do yo BB and buy 2for1's on HDDVD. Yes, they are restocking Toshiba's A3's mostly. Only a few left over on the restock. Walmart looks not to be restocking them nor the software. They don't even seem to be restocking BR software which is very odd.

Fry's is also restocking as is Circuit City. As far as Walmart goes, ignoring what is said on the interweb, BD doesn't sell either and they damn sure aren't selling it at Walmart. HDDVD was Walmart's and HDM's best shot and that may be gone. In the end, Sony and the BD faithful may have killed HDM for all of us.

I am specifically thinking about what will happen to all the current non-ps3 Blu-ray player owners when the final spec discs become the standard later this year and they can't use any of the final spec features.

That fiasco.

Maybe that person will go out and purchase another Blu Ray player? If those 2.0/1.1 features are that important, I doubt the consumer would mind dropping a couple hundred bucks to access them. They can then "upgrade" their player in the bedroom (by moving their old Blu Ray player).

That is how I would do it.

In the end, Sony and the BD faithful may have killed HDM for all of us.

Same tired old argument that you use in every forum post. Try something original.

Same tired old argument that you use in every forum post. Try something original.

You first.

Right or wrong. It's all about money.

If you are currently selling YOUR product to 3 million owners of someone else's product and then you have the opportunity to sell YOUR product to 1.5 million owners of that someone else's competition's product.. why not?

4.5 million customers is always better than 3 million. Especially if the only think keeping you from making an additional 50% revenue is that someone else want's to make money on their product.. something you have no stake in.I still haven't gotten any HD DVD fan who has proposed this magic number of users causing studios to go neutral to address something, so hopefully you will. If 1.5 million would be enough to get Blu-ray exclusive studios to go neutral, how much would it take for HD DVD exclusive studios to go neutral. The only way your logic works is if you magically decide that the threshold of number of users that would cause major Blu-ray studios to go neutral is much lower than it is for HD DVD studios to go neutral.

I could go into the "Why not" (like long term costs of having to do releases with both BD-J and HDi and paying for quality control of more discs), but I would like to see somebody who claims Toshiba is going to get to some magic level where Blu-ray exclusive studios will have to release on HD DVD, to address whether they have to play a trick of not applying the same kind of rule to HD DVD exclusive studios. If Blu-ray continues to have more users, then the HD DVD exclusive studios would go neutral first, unless you use a different threshold for those studios, and if you use a different threshold, you should have an explanation for why. This has been the problem I've seen with this theory going even back to when Toshiba was using it behind the scenes. If you lose your exclusive studios first, then the landscape changes as far as ability to sell players and the magic level to get other studios to come your direction likely goes up.

Basically, using your 3 million and 1.5 million example where you seem to think 1.5 million HD DVD users would get Blu-ray exclusive studios to go neutral, would 2.5 million Blu-ray users get HD DVD exclusive studios to release on Blu-ray?

--Darin

I will agree with you partially. According to ALL hdm sales data, the consumer has chosen Blu Ray for well over a year now.

I didn't have a chance to buy Sony, MGM, Disney movies on HD-DVD. So... half my potential purchases never counted.


I doubt that press will have as much impact as every newspaper, news show and blog stating "blu ray wins the format war" after the Warner announcement.


Ah. Like this CNET article from Feb 8. Google News shows SEVERAL anti-Blu-ray blog/news posts from last week.

Five reasons not to buy a Blu-ray player yet
By John P. Falcone, CNET.com
Feb 08, 2008
http://asia.cnet.com/reviews/home_av/others/0,39037627,62037484,00.htm


It is impossible for HD DVD to survive now.

1. No CE support.
2. No profibility in players (I would bet they are losing $ on every player sold).
3. Not enough studio support.
4. Can't win a sales week in hardware/software despite HUGE price cuts.

1. Agreed. For now. If HD-DVD works - CE's will come.
2. Who cares? I don't own stock in Toshiba
3. It's about the number of titles. Not the number of studios. If the remaining studios release a lot of titles.. it's still anyones game.
4. What's wrong with second place? The PS3 has been dead last and Sony doesn't seem to be worried/complaining.

Maybe that person will go out and purchase another Blu Ray player? If those 2.0/1.1 features are that important, I doubt the consumer would mind dropping a couple hundred bucks to access them. They can then "upgrade" their player in the bedroom (by moving their old Blu Ray player).

That is how I would do it.

Do you work for Sony? :)

The point of no return has already been passed. There will probably be a time when manufacturers think it's stupid not to add hd-dvd support because it's so cheap.

Certainly combo players will be available. Whether they are niche or not is the real question.

Do you work for Sony? :)

I wish I did. I could get paid for my "blueness".:D

For the record, I am not in love with Sony. The only CE product I own of theirs are two PS3's and my "pearl" projector.

I don't think that Sonyis any more underhanded than Toshiba, Microsoft, Warner, Paramount or any other corporation. They are like politicians.....

HD DVD will be less entrenched in the HD era than VHS was during the DVD era. Yeah, you might be able to find players, but most customers will have just bought the BD in the first place.

HD DVD will be less entrenched in the HD era than VHS was during the DVD era. Yeah, you might be able to find players, but most customers will have just bought the BD in the first place.

Huh?:confused:

HD DVD will be less entrenched in the HD era than VHS was during the DVD era. Yeah, you might be able to find players, but most customers will have just bought the BD in the first place.

I think the reality is most have bought upconverting DVD players in the first place.

When they put those disks in their 1.0 or 1.1 players the movie will play. This is where you and I differ I guess. I think most people realize they need to actually connect to the internet to access online features. And if that was important to them they would have checked that before they purchased their player.

This is the Sony cop out.

They rushed BD to market incomplete and now expect the consumer to "pay for it"

Does ANYONE check the specs on a DVD movie and compare it to their player? NO. They expect everything on a DVD disc plays in a DVD player. Period.

I will agree with you partially. According to ALL hdm sales data, the consumer has chosen Blu Ray for well over a year now.

No they haven't. There was no choice. The studios' anti-consumer exclusivity agreements and the BDA's "Trojan horse" business plan placed Blu-rays in people's homes. It certainly is the way business is conducted, and totally legal, but NEVER think for a second that there was any consumer choice involved. Had ALL studios been releasing on both formats, HD DVD players at half the price with superior features would have won. In fact, the very reason for the BDA business plan was precisely because they knew that HD DVD would win. They had to have a business plan which would counter the consumer's natural inclination to choose the cheapest, best-featured option, and executed their plan well.

It is impossible for HD DVD to survive now.

1. No CE support.
2. No profibility in players (I would bet they are losing $ on every player sold).
3. Not enough studio support.
4. Can't win a sales week in hardware/software despite HUGE price cuts.

"Impossible"?? Of couse it's possible. Players for $118 and two major exclusive studios would GUARANTEE it's survival. It doesn't matter if HD DVD doesn't win a week. Surviving does not require HD DVD to win anything, only to... well... survive. To be the spoiler. To create doubt in the consumer's mind, and in the studio's mind, so that mass adoption and mass publishing is deterred indefinitely.

"No profitability in players"!! You gotta be kidding. Sony and the BDA have taken 4+ billion in botton line losses subsidizing the PS3 for a year and a half, subsidizing replication of BD50's, paying off studios in the many hundreds of millions in cash and/or incentives, and massive promotions since day one.

How much is HD DVD behind? They heavily subsidized first gen players, but how many were even sold? 100,000 maybe? And they paid off Paramont 150MM and maybe Universal got a piece of the action. And they've subsidized 3rd generation players. So maybe HD DVD/Toshiba is in the hole for a billion ... maybe. That's still 3 billion of so LESS than BDA!!

You know how many players Toshiba can subsidize for a billion dollars? Figure $100-$200 per A3. That would allow them to subsidized between 5 and 10 MILLION players, and they still haven't come close to the BDA losses.

Is it worth it to them. To be the HDM spoiler and keep their DVD business going? You better believe it. Toshiba is holding way more cards then a lot of people are giving them credit for.

Anotheraviator,

Do you own a Blu Ray player? Just asking.

Huh?:confused:

Meaning, current and future HD DVD ownership will be smaller than VHS ownership right when and a few years after DVD came out.

Toshiba is holding way more cards then a lot of people are giving them credit for.

The only problem for Toshiba is, retailers need a new product to make money on. DVD Sales are on the decline as are DVD player sales. HD is the hot thing, and if they keep the confusion up, no one will be interested in HD movies and the retailers will be out billions over the next 10 years. They will never allow toshiba to get that far.

"Impossible"?? Of couse it's possible. Players for $118 and two major exclusive studios would GUARANTEE it's survival. It doesn't matter if HD DVD doesn't week a week. Surviving does not require HD DVD to win anything, only to... well... survive. To be the spoiler. To create doubt in the consumer's mind, and in the studio's mind, so that mass adoption and mass publishing is deterred indefinitely.And why would 2 major studios choose to deter mass adoption and mass publishing indefinitely for HDM?

--Darin

Meaning, current and future HD DVD ownership will be smaller than VHS ownership right when and a few years after DVD came out.

Then HDDVD will be huge. Thanks

]
Is it worth it to them. To be the HDM spoiler and keep their DVD business going? You better believe it. Toshiba is holding way more cards then a lot of people are giving them credit for.

You think the studios are going to sit back and let Toshiba try to destroy the HD market? They have their own self interests. They'd much rather sell you an HD disk now for $20 or $30 than sell an HD movie 5 to 10 years from now for $10 while splitting the profit with Apple or MS.

And why would 2 major studios choose to deter mass adoption and mass publishing indefinitely for HDM?

--Darin

Maybe, they just don't agree with you. It could happen, right?

You think the studios are going to sit back and let Toshiba try to destroy the HD market? They have their own self interests. They'd much rather sell you an HD disk now for $20 or $30 than sell an HD movie 5 to 10 years from now for $10 while splitting the profit with Apple or MS.

There is no HD market. The only market there is, is the shiny silver video disc market and it is ruled by price, not what resolution the video is on that disc. HDM is a niche market no matter how many formats HDM may have. The only way we will have one format is if both HDM competitors decide to quit.

Maybe, they just don't agree with you. It could happen, right?I sure wish I could go to Vegas and bet big money at even odds that those 2 studios won't still be exclusive this time next year. Anything is possible, but would you place money that they will stay exclusive to HD DVD until then at even odds? If not, what kinds of odds would you have to get to bet that they would be exclusive?

And if you are just going to say you aren't a betting man, then please tell me what you think the odds are of them staying exclusive until then.

--Darin

You think the studios are going to sit back and let Toshiba try to destroy the HD market? They have their own self interests. They'd much rather sell you an HD disk now for $20 or $30 than sell an HD movie 5 to 10 years from now for $10 while splitting the profit with Apple or MS.

yes. toshiba is trying to destroy the hd market. it all makes sense now. they're sitting in their gigantic offices and big evil chairs with their hairless cats, plotting the demise of HDM.

Then HDDVD will be huge. Thanks

How do you come to this conclusion? I remember a few years back I could go into BB and buy a VHS player for $30, a DVD player for $80, or a combo deck for $120. Not exact numbers of course but still roughly what they were. Why would anyone have bought the combo deck if they likely already owned a VHS player and were primarily interested in a DVD player?

yes. toshiba is trying to destroy the hd market. it all makes sense now. they're sitting in their gigantic offices and big evil chairs with their hairless cats, plotting the demise of HDM.

No, you misunderstand. I was quoting Jeff up above, those are his words not mine.

Guys HDM is not competing against each other it is competing against downloads. Five years from now, if Apple and Microsoft has its way, You will have a cable box, xbox, apple tv, etc that will give you HD movies on demand. Will they look good compared to HDM? NO. will the public care that much? NO. $3.99 rental and Cars looks great on the 37-42 inch HD set.

I really am afraid that the battle that we are all watching is the wrong battle. No matter who wins the war will be lost.

I really do think all of us HD DVD and BLURAY are fighting over this decades DVD-A and SACD. Niche products.
Just like in the DVD-a Sacd etc the battle was fought and who won? MP3 because you could download the songs and get 5000 on your ipod. Convenience and marketing beat quality. It sound good enough and the new Higher def downloads will look good enough on the small tv with only 2 speakers. But it will be convenient and will prevail.


Some how I don't see downloads being the #1 HDM source in 5 years. The Cabel companies and Bells need massive wide spred infrastructure upgrades to support the kind of bandwidth you need for HD downloads. I think it will be a niche market for up to 10 years. You really need some massive new copper based technology or FIOS. And other than Verizon who else is running Fiber to homes? Bellsouth started years ago and abandoned it becasue they were asses. I want uncompromised PQ and SQ and donwloads with al lthe DRM BS as well are not it. Where BDA and Toshiba are idiots is becasue of their war and BDA slow to finalize a spec that will be around in 2 years. If Sony and Toshiba had gotten together over a year ago and compromised I think we would be on our way to mass market HDM. Now you have confusion, incomplete BDA spec and quirky players, the masses are sitting this out for another year until there is 1 HDM player format. Universal and Paramount need to push this along and dump HD-DVD now and let the BDA market mature and get their 2.0 spec out, or just forget 2.0 and nail 1.1 down and lets get moving.

yes. toshiba is trying to destroy the hd market. it all makes sense now. they're sitting in their gigantic offices and big evil chairs with their hairless cats, plotting the demise of HDM.

I thought they were in the HDM market, I'm looking at my player now and it says Toshiba on it. I'm really confused now!

How do you come to this conclusion? I remember a few years back I could go into BB and buy a VHS player for $30, a DVD player for $80, or a combo deck for $120. Not exact numbers of course but still roughly what they were. Why would anyone have bought the combo deck if they likely already owned a VHS player and were primarily interested in a DVD player?

I guess you don't understand how many DVD/VHS decks are still sold. This is the problem here and on other forums. There are "facts" being spouting by people that have zero knowledge of the business.

I guess you don't understand how many DVD/VHS decks are still sold. This is the problem here and on other forums. There are "facts" being spouting by people that have zero knowledge of the business.
I guess you know but maybe others dont, there are upscaling DVD recorders with VHS in it that can playback VHS over HDMI.

If only Toshiba or Microsoft release a free basic HD DVD player for windows, imagine all people selling DVDs for personal events, can jump into HD DVD by showing the customer that the DVD can be played in any PC with this free software or with an inexpensive HD DVD player.

I guess you don't understand how many DVD/VHS decks are still sold. This is the problem here and on other forums. There are "facts" being spouting by people that have zero knowledge of the business.

That is about the first thing in this thread I have agreed with you on. Everything else you have said is some of the best "spin" I have seen from anyone on either side. Unfortunately you eventually lose credibility when blindly side with one format on every post. Neither one is perfect.

As for the topic of this thread, it comes down to is it good for one HDM format to hold 20% of the market (which I am sure HD-DVD could easily do) which might lead to consumer confusion. There is no one here that wouldn't agree that Blu-Ray was rushed to market to start competing with HD-DVD. There is also no one here that would disagree that Sony made a huge gamble putting Blu-Ray into the PS3 and that gamble has paid off for them in what some call a "trojan horse" tactic.

HD-DVD is entrenched until either Toshiba, Universal, Paramount or the retail stores decide to end the war for good. Until one of those 4 do, HD-DVD will conitnue to hold 20% of the market. What we all should really be asking ourselves is.. "is that what is good for HDM to grow" giving the competition from DVD and downloads. In my "opinion" it isn't and since I don't see how HD-DVD could possibly come back and over take Blu-Ray now I am forced to side with hoping that HD-DVD goes away sometime this year even though, I probably perfer HD-DVD as a format.

This is the Sony cop out.

They rushed BD to market incomplete and now expect the consumer to "pay for it"

Does ANYONE check the specs on a DVD movie and compare it to their player? NO. They expect everything on a DVD disc plays in a DVD player. Period.

I couldn't agree more.
Sony new this hardware was not upgradable. Yet they kept their mouths shut for as long as they possibly could.

I think the reality is most have bought upconverting DVD players in the first place.
And that's what HD DVD players are being advertised and are being sold as, Upconverting player and the word is getting out that's their PRIMARY function. This is why HD DVD disc sales will never exceed Blu-ray and gain studio support. Toshiba is saving face with their investors at this point in the game to hopefully make some revenue before Uni and Paramount go neutral. People will buy an HD DVD player and upconvert instead of buying HD DVD discs twice the price.

I guess you don't understand how many DVD/VHS decks are still sold. This is the problem here and on other forums. There are "facts" being spouting by people that have zero knowledge of the business.

I don't care about how many VHS decks are still being sold, tell me if that translates to more VHS movies being sold. You don't understand how irrelevant your original analogy is. Toshiba does not benefit from selling players, they benefit from selling movies. People who buy VHS/DVD decks do so to maintain their ability to play the VHS tapes they already own, not to keep up to date with the most current media.

"Impossible"?? Of couse it's possible. Players for $118 and two major exclusive studios would GUARANTEE it's survival. It doesn't matter if HD DVD doesn't win a week. Surviving does not require HD DVD to win anything, only to... well... survive. To be the spoiler. To create doubt in the consumer's mind, and in the studio's mind, so that mass adoption and mass publishing is deterred indefinitely.


Talk about anti consumer.
Once Warner stops releasing on HD DVD, HD DVD will be on life support and if Uni and Paramout have any business sence, they will do the right thing for business and their stock holders, not fan boyism.

This is the Sony cop out.

They rushed BD to market incomplete and now expect the consumer to "pay for it"

Does ANYONE check the specs on a DVD movie and compare it to their player? NO. They expect everything on a DVD disc plays in a DVD player. Period.
Are you sure HD DVD didn't rush their players to market ?
How about these HD DVD owners who can't play discs ?
Should they need to wash or boil discs on each and every title to attempt a playback ?

http://www.avsforum.com/avs-vb/showthread.php?t=810932&page=9
(This is one of hundreds of threads regarding HD DVD plackback issues.)
.

Are you sure HD DVD didn't rush their players to market ?
How about these HD DVD owners who can't play discs ?
Should they need to wash or boil discs on each and every title to attempt a playback ?

http://www.avsforum.com/avs-vb/showthread.php?t=810932&page=9
(This is one of hundreds of threads regarding HD DVD plackback issues.)
.
Have you counted how many BD threads there area with playback issues? This is speculation, but given the reported low yields of BD50 lines Sony must have a rigorous QC, or most BD50 disks would be unplayable.

I don't care about how many VHS decks are still being sold, tell me if that translates to more VHS movies being sold. You don't understand how irrelevant your original analogy is. Toshiba does not benefit from selling players, they benefit from selling movies. People who buy VHS/DVD decks do so to maintain their ability to play the VHS tapes they already own, not to keep up to date with the most current media.

Toshiba doesn't have any movies to sell. And they happen to make tons of money from the biggest and future video format, DVD.

Talk about anti consumer.
Once Warner stops releasing on HD DVD, HD DVD will be on life support and if Uni and Paramout have any business sence, they will do the right thing for business and their stock holders, not fan boyism.

I thought HDDVD had been on "life support" for a year. There aren't and will not be enough HDM discs selling to make a difference. It's time you guys accepted this.

"is that what is good for HDM to grow" giving the competition from DVD and downloads. In my "opinion" it isn't and since I don't see how HD-DVD could possibly come back and over take Blu-Ray now I am forced to side with hoping that HD-DVD goes away sometime this year even though, I probably perfer HD-DVD as a format.
If I believed competition was a bad thing I might agree with you.

To become "entrenched" the format would need to

1) Establish a unqiue value add feature(s) in the HD marketplace

2) Build a sizeable ownership base that values those feature(s).

The format needs something unique to stake it's value in the HD market otherwise it is attempting to do the same thing that blu-ray format is doing but with far less industry support.

IMO hd dvd has only a few real consumer facing value adds that blu-ray does not either currently offer or indicate it will offer in the future.

The most obvious consumer facing value is DVD disk compatiblity for standard dvd players. The other possible values which a few consumers may see worthwhile are lack of region coding, easier access to low cost recordability (better support for HD DVD9) and easier lowcost authoring for small content producers.

For mass market appeal, outside of hybrid disks the hd dvd format is almost entirely redundant to the blu-ray format from a consumer standpoint. That format feature has been hardly marketed and entirely underused so as a result there is nothing to "entrench" a value add in consumers mind for hd dvd as format.

Possibilities for entrenching hd dvd as a valuable part of the HDM market are explored and debated in several threads here including this one (http://www.avsforum.com/avs-vb/showthread.php?p=13035572#post13035572) however at least one Hollywood studio would need to commited to upgrading standard dvd disks this way.

Outside of this type of scenario it's hard to imagine hd dvd surviving let alone becoming "entrenched". There simply is not enough to distinguish it's value from Blu-ray as an HD only format.
Six pages of partisan back-and-forth and only one post that actually addresses the issues of entrenchment.

There's probably around 200 unique titles for HD DVD. About 150 Universal titles, 22 currently-exclusive-but-mostly-not-much-longer Warner titles, and a smattering of contributions from other content providers (bearing in mind that most Paramount/Dreamworks titles to date have been neutral releases aside from a small number over the past few months).

Universal Studios is the linchpin for HD DVD right now. If Universal goes neutral or flips to Blu-ray, that list of exclusive HD DVD titles drops into the double digits, and no amount of hardware or existing software will maintain HD DVD as viable when there is no distinguishing content to define the format.

If Universal stays exclusive to HD DVD, then there's the possibility of a niche. Still a low possibility, but there.

Given this, I think the correct question to ask is "How likely is it that Universal will stay exclusive to HD DVD?", because the answer to that will be the answer to any possibility of HD DVD entrenchment in the marketplace.

II doubt that press will have as much impact as every newspaper, news show and blog stating "blu ray wins the format war" after the Warner announcement.
Who knows, all that could change with some scribbler starting out with "In all honesty........"

4. What's wrong with second place? The PS3 has been dead last and Sony doesn't seem to be worried/complaining.
QFT

4. What's wrong with second place? The PS3 has been dead last and Sony doesn't seem to be worried/complaining.
And the PS3 isn't second. It's fourth. With very few exclusive or quality titles. Yet, no one is suggesting it's demise is eminent.

4. What's wrong with second place? The PS3 has been dead last and Sony doesn't seem to be worried/complaining.

If only one format advances, there's a big problem with second place. Video games evidently support several consoles/formats/etc. but there's little evidence that movie media can support more than one format. Indeed, the evidence is the opposite. The VHS v. Beta battle and the survey results that show consumers are confused and waiting on the sidelines until there is a winner strongly suggests that there's only space for one format.

* * *

Icemage, nice post.

Curious as to what are all the Dreamworks titles as I honestly can't think of many?

I dont know wether to take you seriously, or if this is an atempt at HDM sarcasm. I'll take the high road and assume you are here to contirbute to HD DVD in a positive way.

Shrek
Shrek 2
Shrek 3
Flushed Away
Bee Movie
Over the Hedge
Indiana Jones
Transformers

To answer the question of why no one is counting the PS3 out in the console wars, and why it remains a viable platform, one need only look at the seventeen internal game development studios that Sony owns that are all working on PS3 titles.

Exclusive content defines a format; lack of good exclusive content is what hurt the PS3 as a game console in 2007, and the promise of excellent exclusive content is what is making many analysts project it as beating the Xbox 360 in the 2008 (though still second to the Wii, which has its own reasons for success, none of which are applicable to HDM).

To stay in the battle, HD DVD needs to hang onto Universal Studios. Plain and simple. Paramount/Dreamworks don't really matter that much to HD DVD. They have low title output, and were neutral for quite some time, making their overall effect on the format war minimal even if they did a 180 tomorrow and decided to go Blu-ray exclusive.

I dont know wether to take you seriously, or if this is an atempt at HDM sarcasm. I'll take the high road and assume you are here to contirbute to HD DVD in a positive way.

Shrek
Shrek 2
Shrek 3
Flushed Away
Bee Movie
Over the Hedge
Indiana Jones
Transformers

And current exclusive HD DVD releases of the titles listed:

Shrek 3
Transformers

I don't think that any of stores are going to stop carrying HD-DVD anytime soon. Like Amir said once, the main thing they want to sell is warranty plans and hdmi cables to go with the hdm players. So they are happy selling both.

Six pages of partisan back-and-forth and only one post that actually addresses the issues of entrenchment.No, this post does NOT address the issue of entrenchment... at least in a context consistent with my OP. In fact, I find it absolutely incredulous at how few have evidently read it, compared with those who've apparently read only the thread title, ASSumed it was pro-HD DVD survival, jumped straight to the last page and thrown themselves into the fray with reckless abandon.

ENOUGH ALREADY!

Enough of the Blu-boy "die, HD DVD, die die die" bullsh*t! We get it... you want your pet format at whatever cost... HD DVD owners be damned. Now STFU!

Again, I AM NOT SUGGESTING that HD DVD will continue as a viable HDM format, so let's just take Uni/Par/DW's long-term commitment out of the picture... I am under no illusion that it will continue indefinitely.

What I am interested in is whether those who HAVE invested in the format will find support after Toshiba pulls the plug, or if they'll be left out in the cold with their shiny silver coasters.

So can we all get on-topic, please?

Anotheraviator,

Do you own a Blu Ray player? Just asking.

Not yet. Still waiting for a 2.0 compatible Blu-ray stand alone player in and around $250 (preferably less)

I don't want another game console. Already got the 360.

I agree that BD and HD DVD can be found almost everywhere. But GROCERY STORES? Please do tell which grocery store sells HDM.

Smith's Marketplace in Utah sells blu-ray and HD DVD. They're owned by Kroger.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Smith's_Food_and_Drug

I was pondering the DVD-R vs. DVD+R, and SACD vs. DVD-Audio "format wars" when it occurred to me: Even if HD DVD folds outright somewhere down the line, there reaches a point at which there are enough HD DVD discs in circulation to justify, if not guarantee, its continued support as a "feature" on HDM players from CEs such as OPPO.

The questions are, what is this point, and has it already been reached or can it be reached before HD DVD fades as a "studio" format altogether?

HDDVD doesn't get "entrenched" in the current environment.

You still have to go to the very high end to find SACD and DVD-Audio support. I'll be very surprised if we see even the Koreans (Samsung, LG) continuing to do dual format players.

Toshiba may continue to support it indefinitely... too much face would be lost for anything else.

And that's what HD DVD players are being advertised and are being sold as, Upconverting player and the word is getting out that's their PRIMARY function. This is why HD DVD disc sales will never exceed Blu-ray and gain studio support. Toshiba is saving face with their investors at this point in the game to hopefully make some revenue before Uni and Paramount go neutral. People will buy an HD DVD player and upconvert instead of buying HD DVD discs twice the price.

What happens when they end up selling 10 million upconverters? AND THEN say "these discs play in that there upconverting doohicky you bought last year"

Sales spike overnight. Blu-ray.. bottom 20%.

thank you

[thread getting old already]