Format Battle General Discussion Thread II: Discuss it here!

[Richard Paul]

Originally Posted by NineDayFall75

If those players hit the market at $149, I am going to buy 2, if they are $99, I will pick up 3.

Okay, though in your zeal for HD DVD support you basically are planning to buy one or more of these players from Wal-Mart without even having a clue how good of a HD DVD player it actually is.

Originally Posted by NineDayFall75

Who's not to say Wal-Mart isn't going to get a kickback from the makers of HD-DVD, to sell these at a lower price, or get a discounted pricepoint on discs?

Well I would expect Wal-Mart to sell their HD DVD player above its actual cost but obviously that could change if the HD DVD companies subsidize it.

Originally Posted by nataraj

The BD movie sales are flat.

Blu-ray sales don't look that bad to me.

Originally Posted by Timothy Ramzyk

BD isn't even going to have a dramatic lead in the number of disks on the market by the time these show up.

For someone who goes around calling other people "the converted" simply because you disagree with them you don't seem to recognize that you often treat your personal opinions as though they were facts.

[rto]

Originally Posted by UxiSXRD

What if the lead in players goes to 15:1?

HDDVD only led in players 52-48 when there was a huge disparity in price (from $500-1000 USD as I'm thinking of original pricing of the A1 versus that of the Pioneer Elite, if not the Panny, as well).

At either of those price points, I think it's reasonably safe to assume that standalones appeal to a relatively finite market of videophiles. PS3 also plays games, so the consumer value calculus isn't equivalent, though some enthusiasts have clearly purchased it primarily for BD playback.

2nd gen Blu-ray players are 40-50% off of those original prices, shrinking the price disparity to ~$300 or so, while equalling the performance of the high end Toshiba (the new Sammy is only $50 more than the XA2 with the same capability and a larger library).

$300 is an enormous disparity at the lower end of the market. Will other BD CEs cannibalize potential PS3 ( as a standalone ) sales by significantly undercutting its' price point, or will the presumed reduction this fall define the lower limit of BD hardware pricing, since even those consumers purchasing PS3 primarily as a standalone, might also be tempted to purchase a few more lucrative interactive titles?

Meanwhile more and more PS3 are still being pumped out every month. Even if you stick with minimal sales (~150k/month) and Paramount's rate of adoption (22%), do you if percentage shoots towards 50% (which is probably where I think it is now)?

I think 50% is pie-in-the-sky right now, and it seems to me that $200 HD DVD players at Wally World this fall might put some serious FUBAR on the BDA's strategy.

[Timothy Ramzyk]

Originally Posted by Richard Paul

For someone who goes around calling other people "the converted" you don't seem to recognize that you often treat your personal opinions as though they were facts.

My, my this news is bringing the best out in everyone isn't it? I was under the impression that Fox and Warner delays along with Universal's new schedule was evening the playing field for a bit.

Oh and by the way, by "The Converted" I meant those who are already HDM owners (either format), and not those who have given it little thought.

Relax it's Friday

[Timothy Ramzyk]

Originally Posted by rto

$200 HD DVD players at Wally World this fall might put some serious FUBAR on the BDA's strategy.

What's FUBAR?

[WayneL]

Originally Posted by Richard Paul

Okay, though in your zeal for HD DVD support you basically are planning to buy one or more of these players from Wal-Mart without even having a clue how good of a HD DVD player it actually is.

Probably the same drive and SoC that Pioneer will use.

[WayneL]

Originally Posted by Richard Paul

Blu-ray sales don't look that bad to me.

If Fozziwig didn't use a distorting 3D perspective, and included linear regression lines, it might look different.

[nataraj]

Originally Posted by Richard Paul

Blu-ray sales don't look that bad to me.

Thats because you are not following that thread closely and I'm not sure what is numbers really are. In any case how "good" does this sound.

DVD : 100,000,000 per month

Blu-ray : 250,000 per month.

Yes, 0.25% of DVD sales.

[nataraj]

Originally Posted by Timothy Ramzyk

What's FUBAR?

http://dictionary.reference.com/browse/fubar

FUBAR
1. (WWII military slang) F**ked up beyond all recognition (or repair).

[Timothy Ramzyk]

Originally Posted by nataraj

http://dictionary.reference.com/browse/fubar

FUBAR
1. (WWII military slang) F**ked up beyond all recognition (or repair).

What a gruesome origin for such a fun sounding word.

thanks, sometimes i get lost in the acronym hell that is the AVS board

[wco81]

You know you would think if they're going to ship in these volumes and at these price points, they'd be aggressively courting the studios to flip and have HD-DVD product at the same time as these players.

So we should see Disney and Fox annoucing a bunch of HD-DVD titles this Xmas some time this year, right?

And really, for cut rate players, they need to cut HD-DVD pricing for new releases to under $25 and maybe within $5 of the street price of DVD.

[Richard Paul]

Originally Posted by Timothy Ramzyk

I was under the impression that Fox and Warner delays along with Universal's new schedule was evening the playing field for a bit.

That could be true and I said something similar in a recent post.

Originally Posted by Timothy Ramzyk

Relax it's Friday

I guess I could give that a try.

Originally Posted by WayneL

Probably the same drive and SoC that Pioneer will use.

Maybe, but maybe not. We simply don't know enough about the new Wal-Mart HD DVD player at the moment to know what it will be like.

Originally Posted by nataraj

Yes, 0.25% of DVD sales.

And is that supposed to be bad for a new video format competing with another new video format less than a year after it launched? As I say again Blu-ray sales don't look that bad to me and from what I can see it is currently the top selling HD video format.

[Timothy Ramzyk]

Originally Posted by wco81

You know you would think if they're going to ship in these volumes and at these price points, they'd be aggressively courting the studios to flip and have HD-DVD product at the same time as these players.

So we should see Disney and Fox annoucing a bunch of HD-DVD titles this Xmas some time this year, right?

And really, for cut rate players, they need to cut HD-DVD pricing for new releases to under $25 and maybe within $5 of the street price of DVD.

Ya that would all be nice, but even as an HD DVD supporter I gotta say, lets wait til we have more to go on. For one, just because Walmart ordered these, doesn't mean there are no cheapo BD players on the horizon.

I don't think anyone will change their spots to stripes until they are here and selling.

[nataraj]

Originally Posted by Richard Paul

And is that supposed to be bad for a new video format competing with another new video format less than a year after it launched? As I say again Blu-ray sales don't look that bad to me and from what I can see it is currently the top selling HD video format.

As long as you concentrate on the pygmies war it looks rosy. But when you consider the context of my original comment you will see that it is not rosy. Where and how is the growth needed going to come from ?

Originally Posted by lymzy

Not neccessarily on the player side, BDA already have millions of players in the market. But they better be prepared on the replication side once the demand catch up.

[UxiSXRD]

We would still need to see it in the context of DVD sales. Even if the estimate for this dip is accurate, it's still very interesting that both formats peak and trough with each other. It's jsut as likely the current estimated dip is not as steep (as with the previous dip). I would definitely be interested to see if DVD is following a similar pattern.

Originally Posted by rto

$300 is an enormous disparity at the lower end of the market. Will other BD CEs cannibalize potential PS3 ( as a standalone ) sales by significantly undercutting its' price point, or will the presumed reduction this fall define the lower limit of BD hardware pricing, since even those consumers purchasing PS3 primarily as a standalone, might also be tempted to purchase a few more lucrative interactive titles?

AT this stage of the game, I don't agree. Mass adoption is not only dependent on price, but on the current state/age/maturity of the format(s). j6p doesn't jump en masse into new formats, even if they're dirt cheap. While we're not precisely tied into HDTV penetration, that's a maximum reasonable expectation for 100% saturation of either format right now IMO. As HDTV's proliferate, so too will the HD formats, and the price will become more important.

The $300-500 is the current sweet spot and the HD-A2 should occupy it nicely, as will the A20 and XA2 as time wears on. I just think it's rather extremely partisan to not expect the Sony BDP-S300 and new Sammy to slide in at the mid/upper end of that scale, as well. We have yet to presented any evidence to justify any expectation that indicates HDDVD will far outpace the 52-48 standalone performance when the price advantage in their favor was nearly double what it will be in Summer 07 than it was in Summer 06 that even the smallest percentage of PS3 adoption compensates for favorably to Blu-ray's advantage.

[nataraj]

Originally Posted by UxiSXRD

We would still need to see it in the context of DVD sales. Even if the estimate for this dip is accurate, it's still very interesting that both formats peak and trough with each other. It's jsut as likely the current estimated dip is not as steep (as with the previous dip). I would definitely be interested to see if DVD is following a similar pattern.

Yes, it would be interesting to check. Is there a place that posts weekly DVD sales data ?

[rto]

Originally Posted by UxiSXRD

AT this stage of the game, I don't agree. Mass adoption is not only dependent on price, but on the current state/age/maturity of the format(s). j6p doesn't jump en masse into new formats, even if they're dirt cheap.While we're not precisely tied into HDTV penetration, that's a maximum reasonable expectation for 100% saturation of either format right now IMO. As HDTV's proliferate, so too will the HD formats, and the price will become more important.

HD media are at a disadvantage relative to what occurred with DVD in terms of compatible extant displays, but DVD hardware/software sales exploded when sub $200 players became available. Over the first three quarters last year, HDTV sales increased over 50% relative to the same period the year before, and prices have plummeted even faster this year, particularly on LCD and Plasma flat panels. $200 HD DVD players would be a no-brainer loss leader to help move even more of them this holiday season.

$300-500 is the current sweet spot and the HD-A2 should occupy it nicely, as will the A20 and XA2 as time wears on. I just think it's rather extremely partisan to not expect the Sony BDP-S300 and new Sammy to slide in at the mid/upper end of that scale, as well.

I agree that those machines should be competitive at their respective price points, but I hope you're not attempting to say that < $300 is somehow "sweeter" than > $300, because that simply makes no sense.

We have yet to presented any evidence to justify any expectation that indicates HDDVD will far outpace the 52-48 standalone performance when the price advantage in their favor was nearly double what it will be in Summer 07 than it was in Summer 06 that even the smallest percentage of PS3 adoption compensates for favorably to Blu-ray's advantage.

If the history of consumer electronics teaches us anything, it's that price trumps most anything else, and $199. is a magic number. How else to explain the fact that a dinky little console with last-gen graphics is currently trouncing the technological/branding juggernaut of the gaming industry?

[Timothy Ramzyk]

I think there has to be some determining level of adoption before mass adoption, now the level is so low for both formats as to be non-existent. I can see $200 players appealing on various fronts.

Someone who bought a set and wants to give it a whirl,
If you get one bundled or discounted with new HDTVs,
BD PS3 owners who don't see $200 as an unreasonable price to be able to play the HD DVDs they want but cant get on BD.

It's just easy to drop $200.

If this were a situation where Walmart has chosen HD DVD as the most economical viable format, it's mere presence in their store serves as a promotion of the format itself.

BD sold on the promise not only that they would sell a lot of PS3's but that it would translate to substantial disc and standalone sales. They are beating HD DVD in disk sales, but they aren't making their mark in the broader scheme. Baring a quick rise to the top, the economic feasibility of these formats become more of an issue, and cheaper players, and the ability to utilize DVD production lines makes HD DVD the model, which can come in cheaper and get even more economical faster.

[2Channel]

Originally Posted by nataraj

http://dictionary.reference.com/browse/fubar

FUBAR
1. (WWII military slang) F**ked up beyond all recognition (or repair).

The other classic acronym is

SNAFU
1941, U.S. military slang, acronym for situation normal, all f***ed up, "conveying the common soldier's laconic acceptance of the disorder of war and the ineptitude of his superiors." ["Oxford English Dictionary," which seldom fails to delight]

http://dictionary.reference.com/browse/snafu

[2Channel]

Originally Posted by UxiSXRD

snip.......
We have yet to presented any evidence to justify any expectation that indicates HDDVD will far outpace the 52-48 standalone performance when the price advantage in their favor was nearly double what it will be in Summer 07 than it was in Summer 06 that even the smallest percentage of PS3 adoption compensates for favorably to Blu-ray's advantage.

Let's keep in mind the NPD sales numbers for Q1 2007. I think disc sales show that some percentage of PS3 buyers are snapping up BD movies, but not the majority. It's hard to know the percentage without making assumptions about BD discs/ps3.

Xbox360 = 199,000
PS3 = 130,000

(of course PS2 and Wii sold in higher volumes)

Has anyone seen NPD numbers for the HD-DVD add-on in Q1? I know they sold 92,000 units in 2006.

[UxiSXRD]

Originally Posted by rto

I agree that those machines should be competitive at their respective price points, but I hope you're not attempting to say that < $300 is somehow "sweeter" than > $300, because that simply makes no sense.

Less than $300 is just not feasable right now. It may be for the A2 come Summer, but that remains to be seen. By the time these Wal-Mart players come, regardless of whether there is no Blu-ray answer or not, Blu-ray may well have achieved an unsurpassable lead.

I don't necessarily believe HDDVD will die, and could well see it achieving enough of a base that it won't die, but I don't think there's any question of Blu-ray's survival, while there are numerous reasons to doubt the fate & longeviity of HDDVD. Particularly I don't believe the big box retailers (BB, CC much less Target and Wal Mart) will go on stocking both indefinitely and I don't believe Blu-ray will be the first to drop.

Originally Posted by rto

If the history of consumer electronics teaches us anything, it's that price trumps most anything else, and $199. is a magic number. How else to explain the fact that a dinky little console with last-gen graphics is currently trouncing the technological/branding juggernaut of the gaming industry?

Given the PS2 right on the Wii's heels, I wouldn't disagree. I just think it's an apples & meatloaf comparison at this point in time.

Originally Posted by 2Channel

Let's keep in mind the NPD sales numbers for Q1 2007. I think disc sales show that some percentage of PS3 buyers are snapping up BD movies, but not the majority. It's hard to know the percentage without making assumptions about BD discs/ps3

Right. The only two options are that 1) The PS3 is primarily responsible for turning parity in disc sales to the lead we've seen this entire year. Or 2) It had an insigificant effect and the BD standalones did it on their own. Given the rather massive leads, particularly around the release of Casino Royale is far more attributable to the former than the latter, though I could see PS3 purchasing dying off, especially during the leaner/catalog months (which still see 2:1 increases on BD's side). If Sony has a plan, they'll keep the gamer demographic in mind to and stagger their releases accordingly rather than blow their wad early like they did with the PSP. Even if they don't, I'm interested how and when you believe HDDVD will ever overcome the deficit they've fallen in, if they actually hope to win the format war. Or is their goal instead merely survival of the IP and format stalemate?

Do you realistically expect that HDDVD can win at this point or merely achieve coexistence?

[trbarry]

Originally Posted by UxiSXRD

Less than $300 is just not feasable right now. It may be for the A2 come Summer, but that remains to be seen. By the time these Wal-Mart players come, regardless of whether there is no Blu-ray answer or not, Blu-ray may well have achieved an unsurpassable lead.

I don't necessarily believe HDDVD will die, and could well see it achieving enough of a base that it won't die, but I don't think there's any question of Blu-ray's survival, while there are numerous reasons to doubt the fate & longeviity of HDDVD. Particularly I don't believe the big box retailers (BB, CC much less Target and Wal Mart) will go on stocking both indefinitely and I don't believe Blu-ray will be the first to drop.



Given the PS2 right on the Wii's heels, I wouldn't disagree. I just think it's an apples & meatloaf comparison at this point in time.



Right. The only two options are that 1) The PS3 is primarily responsible for turning parity in disc sales to the lead we've seen this entire year. Or 2) It had an insigificant effect and the BD standalones did it on their own. Given the rather massive leads, particularly around the release of Casino Royale is far more attributable to the former than the latter, though I could see PS3 purchasing dying off, especially during the leaner/catalog months (which still see 2:1 increases on BD's side). If Sony has a plan, they'll keep the gamer demographic in mind to and stagger their releases accordingly rather than blow their wad early like they did with the PSP. Even if they don't, I'm interested how and when you believe HDDVD will ever overcome the deficit they've fallen in, if they actually hope to win the format war. Or is their goal instead merely survival of the IP and format stalemate?

Do you realistically expect that HDDVD can win at this point or merely achieve coexistence?

The above factors are important but don't completely discount the possibility that HD DVD effectively just sat out the first quarter because Universal was more paranoid than many about the AACS compromise and didn't release many prime discs. If so, then it should be obvious by the results in the next few months. If things dont's start to turn around with new HD DVD release then I guess I'll back off this theory. But for now I think it is a strong effect.

- Tom

[WayneL]

Originally Posted by UxiSXRD

By the time these Wal-Mart players come, regardless of whether there is no Blu-ray answer or not, Blu-ray may well have achieved an unsurpassable lead.

Umm, a 1.56:1 (or HD is selling at 65% of BD as I prefer to say it) weekly sales ratio is a massive lead?

Edit: saw nataraj's new numbers

[WayneL]

If Walmart made a decent HDM player a loss-leader under $199, they would own the market. They're big enough to do it.

[mngmikes]

Originally Posted by UxiSXRD

Less than $300 is just not feasable right now. It may be for the A2 come Summer, but that remains to be seen. By the time these Wal-Mart players come, regardless of whether there is no Blu-ray answer or not, Blu-ray may well have achieved an unsurpassable lead.

I don't necessarily believe HDDVD will die, and could well see it achieving enough of a base that it won't die, but I don't think there's any question of Blu-ray's survival, while there are numerous reasons to doubt the fate & longeviity of HDDVD. Particularly I don't believe the big box retailers (BB, CC much less Target and Wal Mart) will go on stocking both indefinitely and I don't believe Blu-ray will be the first to drop.



Given the PS2 right on the Wii's heels, I wouldn't disagree. I just think it's an apples & meatloaf comparison at this point in time.



Right. The only two options are that 1) The PS3 is primarily responsible for turning parity in disc sales to the lead we've seen this entire year. Or 2) It had an insigificant effect and the BD standalones did it on their own. Given the rather massive leads, particularly around the release of Casino Royale is far more attributable to the former than the latter, though I could see PS3 purchasing dying off, especially during the leaner/catalog months (which still see 2:1 increases on BD's side). If Sony has a plan, they'll keep the gamer demographic in mind to and stagger their releases accordingly rather than blow their wad early like they did with the PSP. Even if they don't, I'm interested how and when you believe HDDVD will ever overcome the deficit they've fallen in, if they actually hope to win the format war. Or is their goal instead merely survival of the IP and format stalemate?

Do you realistically expect that HDDVD can win at this point or merely achieve coexistence?

actually if you take the time to look you can find the A2 for 299.99 already at some places

[jdg345]

Originally Posted by UxiSXRD

Less than $300 is just not feasable right now. It may be for the A2 come Summer, but that remains to be seen. By the time these Wal-Mart players come, regardless of whether there is no Blu-ray answer or not, Blu-ray may well have achieved an unsurpassable lead.

I dunno ... I think you can already pick up an A2 for right around $299 right now, and still get the 5 free movies. It is rumored that Toshiba is likely very close to breakeven at the $399 MSRP (not sure if that includes street price) based on 10,000 or so produced per month. Based on that, it would seem plausible to me that if: (1) these players aren't due for another 3-4 months and (2) they are going to be produced in higher quantities and take advantage of economies of scale, then it is pretty likely that we will see them come in at perhaps a $249 MSRP with a street price of even less.

I don't necessarily believe HDDVD will die, and could well see it achieving enough of a base that it won't die, but I don't think there's any question of Blu-ray's survival, while there are numerous reasons to doubt the fate & longeviity of HDDVD. Particularly I don't believe the big box retailers (BB, CC much less Target and Wal Mart) will go on stocking both indefinitely and I don't believe Blu-ray will be the first to drop.

I'm pretty sure Blu-Ray will be around forever, at least as long as the PS3 has games coming out for it. Considering all the 'We need the space' arguments, I hardly think that developers will begin releasing games on DVD9. As far as Big Box Retailers, it all depends on how much support is being given by Wal-Mart. If they really are going to push, "Full Steam Ahead" on HD-DVD, I could see the Blu-Ray section getting smaller ... and smaller ... and smaller. Sure, they might be available online longer, but in store? Dunno. Doesn't Wal-Mart account for like 30-40% of all DVD sales or something ridiculous like that? How does that compare to BB and CC?

Given the PS2 right on the Wii's heels, I wouldn't disagree. I just think it's an apples & meatloaf comparison at this point in time.

But the PS2 is on the Wii's heels at 1/2 the price. It takes the PS2, with an avalanch of additional titles ... plus a $120 savings ... to stay on the Wii's heels? Couple that with the Wii being severely supply constrained still and I don't think it's hardly that close.

Right. The only two options are that 1) The PS3 is primarily responsible for turning parity in disc sales to the lead we've seen this entire year. Or 2) It had an insigificant effect and the BD standalones did it on their own. Given the rather massive leads, particularly around the release of Casino Royale is far more attributable to the former than the latter, though I could see PS3 purchasing dying off, especially during the leaner/catalog months (which still see 2:1 increases on BD's side). If Sony has a plan, they'll keep the gamer demographic in mind to and stagger their releases accordingly rather than blow their wad early like they did with the PSP. Even if they don't, I'm interested how and when you believe HDDVD will ever overcome the deficit they've fallen in, if they actually hope to win the format war. Or is their goal instead merely survival of the IP and format stalemate?

I'm pretty sure that the PS3 is the reason for the turning in disc sales rates. It would make sense. Add the millions of players to some of the BOGO and 50% Amazon deals and that can create a huge surge, no doubt. I agree that Sony would be well served in focusing on titles that would appeal to the gamer demographic in order to keep disc sales moving at as best a pace as they can. But, the 'gamer demographic' and the 'videophile/audiophile demographic' are not necessarily one and the same. One is bound to not get all the content they want, and neither are the casual audience.

As far as the deficit they are in ... I just don't understand this. Disc sales are what? 2:1? Total discs sold between both formats hasn't quite even reached 2 million yet, has it? And the two overall are what? 100k apart? 150k? 200k? A recent buy on the HD-DVD anniversary where a few HUNDRED consumers participated completely usurped the lead Blu-Ray had taken -- in one day -- on most of the rankings. This is a 'huge deficit'? The fact that a relative handful of consumers can skew results tells me that the number's we're talking about here are insignificant in the big picture. Also, let's not forget the number of players out there. HD-DVD has a few hundred thousand, right? Blu-Ray has a few million PS3's. Talkstr8t has suggested that something like 80%+ of those people watch movies on their PS3. We're talking about a 10:1 ratio of hardware players to maintain a 2:1 lead in software sales? And this is 'good'? This creates a 'huge deficit'? Even if the Blu-Ray sales lead of 2:1 continues over the next few months, we're still only talking about hundreds of thousands of discs advantage, right? If 1 million HD-DVD players come out, and each person buys just (1) HD-DVD disc with it ... the deficit would be easily overcome, no?

Do you realistically expect that HDDVD can win at this point or merely achieve coexistence?

I don't know that either format can really win anymore. Blu-Ray will be around for games at the very least and it'll be a long long time before Sony goes Neutral I would think. But time will tell, it's really hard to say. If Disney goes Neutral and BD+ turns out to be a bomb, Fox could very well follow suit. Sony is a public company -- how long before shareholders started to revolt because SPE is leaving a ton of money on the table?

Of course, this is all conjecture. If there are no inexpensive players to create a huge cost differential, who knows what is going to happen? If both camps create a market for inexpensive players, then I would think the nod still goes to the HD-DVD side. Why? Because it creates a mess for Sony's plan of economies of scale imo. As long as HD-DVD is sucking up potential Blu-Ray disc sales, it will take that much longer to achieve price parity in terms of replication. How long will shareholders allow Sony to subsidize Blu-Ray, and the PS3?

Time will tell though ... it'll be interesting to see where this infant market is come next year's CES.

[jdg345]

Hmm ... wasn't the Wal-Mart/Chinese Player news in the News Thread? If so, it's not there anymore. I wonder ... fake news? Or early tipped hand?

[nataraj]

Originally Posted by jdg345

I dunno ... I think you can already pick up an A2 for right around $299 right now, and still get the 5 free movies.

There are a LOT of people who do not want to buy electronics online. They want to be able to return easily if things don't work out.

Anyway, I don't think $299 is a realistic Walmart chinese hd dvd price to move 2M players quickly. It would have to be below $200.

[DTV TiVo Dealer]

I was told by someone in the know that the player will be on the shelf at $299 and frequently on sale for $199

I'm hoping to get a few thousand with my branding.

-Robert

[jdg345]

Originally Posted by nataraj

There are a LOT of people who do not want to buy electronics online. They want to be able to return easily if things don't work out.

Anyway, I don't think $299 is a realistic Walmart chinese hd dvd price to move 2M players quickly. It would have to be below $200.

Agreed; I think it'll need to at be at worst case $299 MSRP with a street of $199-249 A/B Pricing. The 'Wal-Mart' Warranty is awesome, but to really get that impuse buy, it needs to not start with a a '2' ... unless, we're talking $20.

[nataraj]

Originally Posted by DTV TiVo Dealer

I was told by someone in the know that the player will be on the shelf at $299 and frequently on sale for $199

I'm hoping to get a few thousand with my branding.

Aha ... that makes sense. And I do hope you get a part of the action - having supported HiDef DVD so well till now.