Nielsen VideoScan sales ratios & top sellers part 3

[manikin]

Originally Posted by Grubert

The lead making the blu-ray players heavier is expensive


Question: Grubert why do you rise to the bait? I figured a little while back that trying to correct mispoken responses due to opinions, or incorrect information was a fruitless task as the author was really not going to retract the post. True for fans of both formats. So now I read, roll my eyes, and judiciously use my eyes to ignore posts I know will not add value to the discussion.

[geko29]

Top 10 by SKU:

1.  Transformers					100
2.  Pirates of the Carribean: Dead Man's Chest		9.47
3.  Pirates of the Carribean: Curse of the Black Pearl	9.12
4.  Fatastic Four: Rise of the Silver Surfer		5.47
5.  Apocalypto						5.02
6.  Deja Vu						3.71
7.  The Prestige					3.60
8.  Wild Hogs						3.53
9.  The Reaping BR					3.42
10. 300 BR						3.37

xx. Knocked Up						2.54
xx. 300 HD						2.06
xx. Evan Almighty					1.97
xx. The Reaping HD					1.87

Top 10 by title:

1.  Transformers					100
2.  Pirates of the Carribean: Dead Man's Chest		9.47
3.  Pirates of the Carribean: Curse of the Black Pearl	9.12
4.  Fatastic Four: Rise of the Silver Surfer		5.47
5.  300							5.43
6.  The Reaping						5.29
7.  Apocalypto						5.02
8.  Deja Vu						3.71
9.  The Prestige					3.60
10. Wild Hogs						3.53

xx. Knocked Up						2.54
xx. Evan Almighty					1.97


Top 5 Blu-Ray:

1.  Pirates of the Carribean: Dead Man's Chest		100
2.  Pirates of the Carribean: Curse of the Black Pearl  96.29
3.  Fatastic Four: Rise of the Silver Surfer		57.72
4.  Apocalypto						53.04
5.  Deja Vu						39.13

Top 5 HD DVD:

1. Transformers						100
2. Knocked Up						2.54
3. 300 							2.06
4. Evan Almighty					1.97
5. The Reaping						1.87

[beatboy77]

Blu-ray Wins It! Unbelievable!



~Josh

[Grubert]

1. Transformers HD 100.00
10. 300 BD 3.37

That is to say, Transformers outsold 300 BD 29.67:1.
If Transformers = 190,000
then 300 BD = 6403
However we know that in previous weeks 300 has been selling in the vicinity of 3,000 on BD (Nielsen).

Now, if 300 BD = 3000
Then Transformers = 89010 (Nielsen)

Overall = 89010 / 0.8 = 111262.5

[UxiSXRD]

Originally Posted by Grubert

4. Fantastic Four BD 5.47

Is this the first one or Rise of the Silver Surfer?

[manikin]

Originally Posted by Calamus

I'm voting for a total shutout, two months to go

I had voted in the last poll regarding weeks won that transformers would be the week. Then the BDA goes and makes blu-ray customers happy with their BOGO during that week. So that killed it.
What if more than Disney, and Sony had participated in the BOGO, There are quite a few FOX titles that would have definitely made a greater swing in the numbers.
I wounder if something is planned during the Shrek3 week?

[ShagMan]

So did Transformers outsell the next title down by a factor of ten, am I reading that right?

[MrXpress]

Originally Posted by Grubert

1. Transformers HD 100.00
10. 300 BD 3.37

That is to say, Transformers outsold 300 BD 29.67:1.
If Transformers = 190,000
then 300 BD = 6403
However we know that in previous weeks 300 has been selling in the vicinity of 3,000 on BD (Nielsen).

Now, if 300 BD = 3000
Then Transformers = 89010 (Nielsen)

Overall = 89010 / 0.8 = 111262.5

Which, to be fair, is still pretty impressive. I think Paramount's "zomg 190k sold VICTORY" press release did more harm than good, because now it makes 110k+ sold in a week seem insigificant in comparison, when in reality it's a very good number.

[RDarrylR]

Originally Posted by ShagMan

So did Transformers outsell the next title down by a factor of ten, am I reading that right?

Yep but all the Blu-ray titles combined sold more than it. And the 2nd place HD-DVD title was outsold 39:1 by Transformers.

[Steverhcp02]

Originally Posted by JAG1977

So now your trying to discredit Nielson.....

There comes a point when you have to stop digging, the HD-DVD supporters whining is getting a little over the top.

exactly, i mean, why would paramount want to actually lie about their figures and post the shipped number which every freaking business on earth does to inflate the numbers....they're too busy saving puppies from burning houses while sony is stealing little kids candy.

[spam.curitiba]

Originally Posted by Grubert

1. Transformers HD 100.00
10. 300 BD 3.37

That is to say, Transformers outsold 300 BD 29.67:1.
If Transformers = 190,000
then 300 BD = 6403
However we know that in previous weeks 300 has been selling in the vicinity of 3,000 on BD (Nielsen).

Now, if 300 BD = 3000
Then Transformers = 89010 (Nielsen)

Overall = 89010 / 0.8 = 111262.5

wow....and 300 came out when?

[clemsonfn]

Originally Posted by Grubert

1. Transformers HD 100.00
10. 300 BD 3.37

That is to say, Transformers outsold 300 BD 29.67:1.
If Transformers = 190,000
then 300 BD = 6403
However we know that in previous weeks 300 has been selling in the vicinity of 3,000 on BD (Nielsen).

Now, if 300 BD = 3000
Then Transformers = 89010 (Nielsen)

Overall = 89010 / 0.8 = 111262.5

Would it not be safe to assume that 300 sold a good deal more than 3,000 copies due to BOGO? If that number was 50% greater (1,500 more copies sold, for example), then TF = 133,515.

[jmpage2]

Originally Posted by ImkSpyPlns

51:49, wow, I was really worried this week that I'd have to read a week's full of posts from the HD-DVD camp talking all about their win!

I think it is worse now, because it was so close... I'll have to read a week's full of posts from both sides talking about their win!

Oh well, it looks like blu will make a clean sweep this year. HD-DVD needed this week if they wanted a win in sales.

Hey it only took BD giving away tens of thousands of discs to maintain parity with a blockbuster release.

If that's a "win" in your book then that's a pretty crappy book.

[RDarrylR]

Originally Posted by Steverhcp02

exactly, i mean, why would paramount want to actually lie about their figures and post the shipped number which every freaking business on earth does to inflate the numbers....they're too busy saving puppies from burning houses while sony is stealing little kids candy.

Classic, classic post!!

[xbdestroya]

Originally Posted by clemsonfn

Would it not be safe to assume that 300 sold a good deal more than 3,000 copies due to BOGO? If that number was 50% greater (1,500 more copies sold, for example), then TF = 133,515.

300 wasn't a part of BOGO.

I think all that Grubert was trying to show, is that the empirical evidence supports Transformers as having sold in the vicinity of ~115k, vs the shipped/sold 190k figure Paramount tossed out.

[Steverhcp02]

Originally Posted by clemsonfn

Would it not be safe to assume that 300 sold a good deal more than 3,000 copies due to BOGO? If that number was 50% greater (1,500 more copies sold, for example), then TF = 133,515.

did you buy into the HD DVD FUD of a "BDA wide BOGO" .....it was only Disney titles.

[Steverhcp02]

Originally Posted by jmpage2

Hey it only took BD giving away tens of thousands of discs to maintain parity with a blockbuster release.

If that's a "win" in your book then that's a pretty crappy book.

hehe, it starts.

[Everdog]

Originally Posted by beatboy77

Just got word from a couple of different sources that last week's sales numbers were VERY close and that HD-DVD pulled it out and won the week based on strong sales of Transformers. It appears that Blu-ray will dominate the Top 10, but nothing came close to Transformers which will occuply the #1 slot by a landslide. She did not have the official ratio's as of yet but said to expect something along the lines of 52/48 in favor of HD-DVD.

~Josh

Oh, well.

[Calamus]

Originally Posted by wnorris

If 1 million of the discs were freebies from the numerous BOGO and B2GO sales that BD has had in the past year, then revenue would be the same. RB Films has indicated that a BD25 costs 30% more to replicate than a HD30. One would assume the same is true for BD50, or that it could be slightly higher than 30% more vs HD30. So inherently, BD has to sell more copies anyway to make the same amount of profit. Now who's not looking at the big picture?

What was the cost to replicate Transformers in 200k – 300k quantities? Since it’s done on cheap DVD equipment I suspect it was less than $0.50 so by the RB Films estimate BD would be $0.80. I consider replication cost to be pretty insignificant since they sell for $30.

[manikin]

Originally Posted by clemsonfn

Would it not be safe to assume that 300 sold a good deal more than 3,000 copies due to BOGO? If that number was 50% greater (1,500 more copies sold, for example), then TF = 133,515.

300 was not part of the BOGO it's a Warner title.

[manikin]

Originally Posted by jmpage2

Hey it only took BD giving away tens of thousands of discs to maintain parity with a blockbuster release.

If that's a "win" in your book then that's a pretty crappy book.

It is a win for the consumer (the blu-ray owner) I prefer to get the discounts rather than some corporation.

the HD DVD PRG is lucky that it did not get its hand smacked like the microsoft - best buy deal did for them.

[Grubert]

More food for thought:

- Common releases
The Reaping (Warner, day-and-date) BD outsold the HD 1.83:1

- HDM vs DVD
On DVD, Transformers outsold The Reaping by 21.74:1
On HDM, Transformers outsold The Reaping by 18.90:1

[Grubert]

Originally Posted by xbdestroya

300 wasn't a part of BOGO.

I think all that Grubert was trying to show, is that the empirical evidence supports Transformers as having sold in the vicinity of ~115k, vs the shipped/sold 190k figure Paramount tossed out.

Exactly. Thanks.

[MrXpress]

Some very rudimentary analysis:

If we figure that Transformers sold 115,000, then that means HD DVD had sales of 2921 for Knocked Up, 2369 for 300, 2265 for EA, and 2150 for the Reaping. It also means that there's around 125k HD DVD sales that we know of, plus who knows how many titles outside of the top 5. I'll estimate 15k sold on top of those 5, which is 140K total. Since Blu-ray won by a 51:49 margin, that means BR sold 145.6K total, for a total of 285,600 HDM titles sold the past week. BR or HD supporter or not, I think we can all agree that's a refreshing number to see considering how paltry sales have been previously.

[JAG1977]

Originally Posted by jmpage2

Hey it only took BD giving away tens of thousands of discs to maintain parity with a blockbuster release.

If that's a "win" in your book then that's a pretty crappy book.

And Paramount released Transformers exclusviely on HD-DVD from the goodness of their heart, or because of $150m?

BDA on the other hand subsidised a sale for under $5m, directly benefiting Blu-ray consumers, easing the loss of Transformers.

[m1cst4rr]

Wow, there must have been some massive sales out of the charts if you consider that Transformers outsold the complete Top 10 100:46.71.

[Grubert]

YTD 65:35 (1-point drop)
SI 61:39 (no drop)

[Calamus]

Originally Posted by Grubert

Nobody waited for Sony's response when it was reported that they had inflated their Casino Royale figures.

In my book, independent publications such as Home Media Magazine/Hollywood Reporter or Video Business/Variety, and independent data gatherers such as Nielsen or NPD have infinitely more credibility than any big studio.

+1

[MrXpress]

Some further rudimentary (and likely incorrect) analysis:

If we go by the baseline that Transformers = 115,000...

Then we end up with POTCMC at 10980, POTC:COTBP at 10488, FF:ROTSS at 6290, Apocalypto at 5773, Deja Vu at 4266, Prestige at 4140, Wild Hogs at 4059, Reaping BD at 3933, and 300 BD at 3875. This ends up being 53,804 BD titles sold from those 9, which (if you use my figure above of 145,600 total BD sold) means that an astounding 91,796 BD titles were sold outside of what is represented on the top 10... which either indicates that I'm wildly incorrect in my logic, or that there were a LOT of titles sold outside of the main Disney BOGO ones.

[Calamus]

Originally Posted by plazman

Sony said explicitly - shipped to retailers 100K and 50K sold. Paramount said explicitly - sold to consumers 100K in one day and 190K in a week. There is a 'clear' diference, that is 'relevant' in my opinion.

I'm just interested in HOW Paramount was able to say "explicitly - sold to consumers 100K in one day and 190K in a week" when to the best of my knowledge Paramount doesn't sell anything to consumers, only retailers. Is there a Paramount store like the WB store?