No blu-ray Macs? No problem

[Further]

Yesterday I saw a couple of articles about this and forgot to post. It seems that even without competition from another format, blu-ray isn't doing too well. In fact, its future may even be in question. Here's one story and here's another.

[bommai]

These articles are not very accurate since they are looking at one week's sales. The long term trend has been slowly inching upwards. I am sure the Bluray vendors want a steeper ramp up but given today's economy - at least it is still inching upwards. If prices of media come down, I am sure they will sell more disks.

[kenliles]

seems like the trend is just barely enough to keep it alive for a while as perhaps the last disk format to survive; But it's much slower than the present trend-line of on-line HD.

My guess is that BD will serve that transition nicely as internet connections become faster. I think Apple is positioned really well for this transition to on-line access - perhaps better than anyone; I just don't see a big impetus for them to bite hard into BD; Support it with optional drives yes, but not much more...

ken

[Further]

Originally Posted by bommai

These articles are not very accurate since they are looking at one week's sales. The long term trend has been slowly inching upwards.

That's not quite true. The first article has links to sales from late July and they are all down except for 2. So, four weeks down and 2 weeks up. That doesn't look so good to me.

[mjm7496]

I agree with the articles. I'm one of the idiots that thinks he needs to buy the newest technology. I have avoided BR for several reasons. 1) The players have been too expensive. 2) Cost of media (both movies and R/RW media) 3) Missing media/movies from catalog. 4) Internet downloads.... Both legal and illegal. 5) DRM

One of the arguments has been that unless people have home theater setups they won't care about BR. Well I have a 7.1 surround system and a 50" Pioneer 5080 Plasma and I am not interested in it.

I think without people like me getting excited in BR it's in deep trouble. I am sure the picture quality is awesome, but the average person is still likely to be impressed with an upscaled DVD on a high quality TV.

I just don't see much future in a market that relies on audio/video junkies to pay an extra $10-20 premium for a movie. Add in the fact that digital downloads are going to slowly be eating into the market share and I see nothing by a long term downward trend for physical media in this industry. It certainly won't go away, but it will be less and less of a player each year going forward.

[Ted Todorov]

Then next year we'll get Red Ray -- not a joke, it's the disk player coming from Red, the makers of the Red/Scarlet cameras that are/will be taking Hollywood by storm.

The purpose of Red Ray is to allow filmmakers to project their films in very high def using a cheap portable player. So it won't be sneaking into the consumer, pre-recorded media space any time soon, but it does kind of demonstrate the bogusness of Blu-ray.

Yeah, I'm another early adopter type with no Blu-ray equipment, although I did get the new Blade Runner collection on BD during a 50% off sale in expectation of having a player some day...

[Further]

I remember that several years after compact discs came out, at least one company (Sony?) tried to sell a "higher definition" form of CD. As far as I know, that was a complete failure. What the studios (film and music) are ignoring is that not all content (perhaps not even the majority of content) is suitable for high definition.

[dbfreq]

I think another thing that hurts BluRay is that, while the vast majority of the US population knows "HD", their eyes glaze over when you start talking about 720p v. 1080i v. 1080p -- they're all technically HD, but they're not all the same. On a big enough display or screen, there are differences, and BluRay's 1080p really starts to shine above 50". That's just the resolution aspect. Even people who are acutely aware of 1080p rarely discuss the format's additional color information.

I have a 70" Sony SXRD (my wife calls it the Volkswagen). BluRay looks fantastic. iTMS' HD rentals look ok, but bad enough that I still buy BluRay discs, even for movies I know I'll only watch a couple of times.

So begins the iTunes-ification of movies. iTMS has taught millions that paying nearly CD prices for less than CD quality (and DRM) is good. Now we're going through that cycle again with "HD" movies.

I don't think that BluRay will just disappear in the next year or two. I don't see any reason to think that the format will suffer a fate much different than that of the CD. Studios will continue to push for physical media sales, which net them higher profits, for as long as they can, while also releasing lower-quality versions of the same movies for online distribution. Consumers will gradually adapt to the idea of getting their movies from online sources, and, because they don't appreciate (ie, know or care about) the difference in quality as much as they care about the convenience and price, studios will be forced to put more resources into marketing through the online distribution channels.

[Joel Graffman]

The PS3 player thread has over 1.5 million hits. BR disks seem to be quite popular among AVS forum members who are looking for the best audio and video quality.

I like BR and it's just as cheap to rent a BR disk as a DVD. (at least with NETFLIX)

Originally Posted by Further

Yesterday I saw a couple of articles about this and forgot to post. It seems that even without competition from another format, blu-ray isn't doing too well. In fact, its future may even be in question. Here's one story and here's another.

[Ted Todorov]

Originally Posted by dbfreq

I don't think that BluRay will just disappear in the next year or two. I don't see any reason to think that the format will suffer a fate much different than that of the CD. Studios will continue to push for physical media sales, which net them higher profits, for as long as they can, while also releasing lower-quality versions of the same movies for online distribution...

While you may be correct, there are no guarantees: Blu-ray could go the way of SACD/DVD-A. Still technically alive but might as well be dead. Or it could go the way of Laser Disc -- a long lived niche format. After all there is a mainstream physical media market that's not going anywhere -- DVD.

So far as the studios making more money out of physical media, that's only true if they are charging a substantially higher wholesale price. And so long as they do that with Blu-ray, they are guaranteeing that it stays a niche format. It's about control, more than anything else.

If they started selling HD movies with all the major online vendors, they know what would happen -- iTunes wold rule the roost giving Apple great power, and they would rather lose money than let that happen.

[Ted Todorov]

Originally Posted by Further

I remember that several years after compact discs came out, at least one company (Sony?) tried to sell a "higher definition" form of CD. As far as I know, that was a complete failure. What the studios (film and music) are ignoring is that not all content (perhaps not even the majority of content) is suitable for high definition.

HDCD was a gimmick. SACD is the real thing, but the record industry screwed the pooch on that one -- they simply could have replaced CDs with dual layer SACDs, and eventually most consumers would have caught up with SACD capable players. But instead they had the format war and tried to cash cow the SACD by releasing single layer disks hoping that people who needed a portable version of their music would end up buying two copies.

If it wasn't for the PS-3 BD would be in the same sad place as SACD. PS3 has been the difference so far.

[Further]

Originally Posted by Ted Todorov

If it wasn't for the PS-3 BD would be in the same sad place as SACD. PS3 has been the difference so far.

You are probably quite correct. But, for my interest in film/DVDs, high definition is just another marketing game much like colorizing was.

[Tweeg]

The rollout of DVD was massively succesful for many reasons, a couple of which don't apply with Blu-ray: 1) the huge advantage it had over the mainstream format of the time, VHS. No rewinding, no eventual degradation of quality, smaller and easier to store, better PQ. 2) no large reinvestment in other equipment needed to appreciate it - as long as you had analog RCA video and audio inputs, you would notice a big difference between DVD and VHS. With Blu-ray having no convenience improvement over DVD and requiring additional investment in HDMI-compatible receivers and HDTVs to appreciate the quality improvement*, it's not going to take off as quickly. Then the format war didn't help, but its effects should be beginning to wear off. You could also place some blame on the current economic situation.


* - yes, I know many of us already had this stuff, but a much larger number didn't, and still don't.

[Ted Todorov]

Originally Posted by Tweeg

The rollout of DVD was massively succesful for many reasons, a couple of which don't apply with Blu-ray: 1) the huge advantage it had over the mainstream format of the time, VHS. No rewinding, no eventual degradation of quality, smaller and easier to store, better PQ. 2) no large reinvestment in other equipment needed to appreciate it - as long as you had analog RCA video and audio inputs, you would notice a big difference between DVD and VHS. With Blu-ray having no convenience improvement over DVD and requiring additional investment in HDMI-compatible receivers and HDTVs to appreciate the quality improvement*, it's not going to take off as quickly. Then the format war didn't help, but its effects should be beginning to wear off. You could also place some blame on the current economic situation.


* - yes, I know many of us already had this stuff, but a much larger number didn't, and still don't.

Agreed on all of these points. But I would posit that the biggest obstacle in Blu-ray adoption is the draconian DRM. It becomes much harder and more expensive to release to hardware that supports all that junk, and has greatly slowed computer adoption. I was a relatively early adopter of DVD because my B&W G3 had a DVD drive. Once I saw the possibilities I eagerly splurged for a set-top DVD player and widescreen TV.

Also many consumers take easy, painless DVD ripping for iPods etc. for granted -- again Blu-ray becomes an inferior product. Apple is smart to provide SD downloads as a free supplement to their HD downloads for TV shows. Too bad their HD downloads look inferior to broadcast HDTV (from what little I've seen).

[wildrock]

Originally Posted by Ted Todorov

But I would posit that the biggest obstacle in Blu-ray adoption is the draconian DRM.

Actually, for me it has been the great expansion of available HD on my cable service. I've gone from 5 channels 2 years ago to about 35 channels today, including all the major movie networks. I'm still missing a couple of network channels, but I don't miss them. And there's a lot of HD movies on cable that aren't available on Blu-ray yet.

Then again, the price for decent players and media is still keeping the adoption rate down. And cable prices are going up. At some point I may decide to downgrade some cable services and move over to BD as the prices go down.

Online HD downloads haven't interested me yet. Just not cost effective for what you get.

[rezzy]

Originally Posted by dbfreq

So begins the iTunes-ification of movies. iTMS has taught millions that paying nearly CD prices for less than CD quality (and DRM) is good. Now we're going through that cycle again with "HD" movies.

Outside of the AQ of much of the available music, DRM'd iTunes is a non-issue. At least you can turn your purchases into a CD. On the other hand, purchased movies & TV shows....yikes! They can be backed up in case of hard drive failure, but unfortunately cannot be played outside of iTunes (or aTV).

[Further]

Well, they're at it again: Here's Business week against and Sony for.

[SoundKernel]

Even if it's only got 10 years of lifespan, BR still fills a void and can generate some profits for the studios and CE firms. Downloads are not quite ready ona massive scale because the bandwidth isn't there. Quality is probably close enough for the average Joe (not AVS-types)

Wait until the holidays- things will pick up, assuming the economy doesn't melt down. I have a good friend that I would call "cheap" (not in a derogatory way- he's just willing to put disproportionate efforts into extracting maximum value from every purchase), and the guy just bought a PS3. He loves it and has bought several BR discs in the past couple weeks.
At worst, BR could have a run similar to LaserDisc with none of LD's drawbacks (availability (solved by netflix), size, flipping discs, etc.)
SACD is niche format, and not a complete failure. I have a 150 discs and CD can't compare ona decent system. Pop music with it's massively processed and compressed mixes doesn't benefit much. But classical and Jazz sound wonderful and there are more than 5000 titles to choose from. DVD-A is dead but I still wish I would have bought some of the classic rock stuff when it was available.

Cheers

[kenliles]

Originally Posted by SoundKernel

DVD-A is dead but I still wish I would have bought some of the classic rock stuff when it was available.

Cheers

Some of those DVD-A productions are incredible - I have a precious few along with some SACD; Of course DVD-A core is part of BD now and showing up in some concert material. I hope BD survives long enough to produce some excellent audio as well. I've decided to have one spinner for BD,SACD,DVD-A but use a media server (with on-line rental) for the bulk of audio/video...

I really doubt the new consortium will succeed in defining a download format that all manufacturers will adhere to.... I think Apple will end up a winner with their approach (although not nearly as dominant as iPod), as others will have competing solutions....

ken

[wildrock]

I have to agree with Soundkernal about the comparison with SACD. That sort of niche may be the permanent resting place for BD. At least until the next great thing comes along to standardize the industry in the way that CD and DVD did.

[Kadath]

No.

[analogue900]

Seems it's not going to happen anytime soon. See this:

http://arstechnica.com/news.ars/post...ook-event.html

According to Jobs, the licensing of BluRay is so complex and painful that Apple prefers to wait.

[chefklc]

Yeah, "bag of hurt" pretty much covers it.

[Ted Todorov]

So now the question is if Apple supports some form of HDCP via Display Port allowing them to offer their HD iTunes rentals on Macs, not just AppleTV?

Potentially, with Display Port present, Apple could support Blu-ray playback with this hardware if they should decide to open the bag of hurt.

Memo to Blu-ray consortium -- you want your sales to take off? Remove the hurt.

[Goo]

I don't know if anyone posted about this, but here is a portable Blu-ray player and burner targeted for Mac portables.
I'm not sure how this would work with integrated graphics, but it looks like the white version would go with a Mac Mini nicely.

http://www.amexdigital.com/Press_Rel...ti%20Drive.htm

[grubavs]

Originally Posted by Goo

I don't know if anyone posted about this, but here is a portable Blu-ray player and burner targeted for Mac portables.
I'm not sure how this would work with integrated graphics, but it looks like the white version would go with a Mac Mini nicely.

http://www.amexdigital.com/Press_Rel...ti%20Drive.htm

Holy Crap! You generated a heck of a lot of interest! Here's what I get when I try to view that:

Bandwidth Limit Exceeded

The server is temporarily unable to service your request due to the site owner reaching his/her bandwidth limit. Please try again later.
Apache/1.3.41 Server at www.amexdigital.com Port 80

[Ted Todorov]

Originally Posted by Goo

I don't know if anyone posted about this, but here is a portable Blu-ray player and burner targeted for Mac portables.
I'm not sure how this would work with integrated graphics, but it looks like the white version would go with a Mac Mini nicely.

http://www.amexdigital.com/Press_Rel...ti%20Drive.htm

Bandwidth Limit Exceeded

The server is temporarily unable to service your request due to the site owner reaching his/her bandwidth limit. Please try again later.
Apache/1.3.41 Server at www.amexdigital.com Port 80

Not a serious company. If they can't get a website working the chances that their player works with Hollywood Blu-rays on the Mac are between zero and nil IMHO.

[Andrew67]

I'm sure it will work just fine, but it won't allow you to watch BR movies on a mac.

[Phrehdd]

Blu Ray movies are a mixed bag. Only recently have the players been cost-wise reasonable to the typical consumer. The discs however, still are high priced. I have read that during the holidays, a large push will be done to sell blu ray movies. Hopefully, this will be less advertising and more about lower prices for titles.

Just an opinion here -

Blu Ray doesn't equal "better picture/audio" always. I have seen some Blu Ray and HD DVD that virtually doesn't look any different than their DVD counterparts. This is not a flaw of blu ray at all. This has to do with greedy and lazy companies "dumping" films onto blu ray and not taking advantage of the medium itself. Often older movies suffer this way. 35MM movies, even old ones, have more resolution than blu ray can handle which means no reason not to have a good clean sharp image.

DVD vs Blu Ray - tough call here and I guess it also depends on your equipment and viewing. If you have a 720p large screen and a good DVD player that can do quality upscaling, you probably wont miss blu ray too much. Players such as Oppo seem very popular and some folks swear they will never purhcase a blu ray as long as DVD's keep coming out.

If you have a 1080p large screen, sit relatively close, a good quality blu ray will definitely be appreciated over its dvd counterpart. Again, its a matter of the transfer and if the company at hand did a faithful transfer and not a "dump."

Simple example of dumps onto Blu Ray - That's Entertainment I, II and III. The DVD counterparts look approximately the same. No effort to digitally enhance the original during transfer etc. The two areas that can help are digital enhancement and quality "transfer."

I like hi def movies on my large screen. I feel equally happy watching DVD version of Lord of the Rings as the DVDs upscale well and the end result is I can sit back and enjoy.

In short, if you have a large DVD collection, moving to large screen just make sure to get a good DVD player.

If you are moving to Blu Ray, be aware that some movies are absolutely brilliant and have been faithfully transferred and some are "dumps" to blu ray. (I might also mention that if a title appeared early on as an HD DVD with VC-1 format, the later blu ray version is a dump of that VC-1 file and no benefits added).

I'll continue using both blu ray and dvds and yeah, most new purchases are blu ray movies. If anyone knows of a good site that rates the transfer quality to blu ray of given titles I would appreciate it. In this I can decide if a DVD is more in order.

[btokars]

Originally Posted by Phrehdd

...If anyone knows of a good site that rates the transfer quality to blu ray of given titles I would appreciate it. In this I can decide if a DVD is more in order.

Widescreen Review magazine does a very good job on that score. And you're right, everything depends on the source material and the care that goes into making the HD/BD master. I agree that there are some BD disks that are not much better than DVD.