Year 2010: Which format will survive?

[Andrikos]

I'm convinced that both formats will survive to the detriment of both.
What do you think?

[RobertR1]

As long as both formats survive, they'll remain niche formats unless combo players arrive in masses and cheap at some point.

[Andrikos]

I think the existence of the Xbox and PS3 will necessitate the survival of both formats.
This guarantees that neither of them will be as succesful as DVD.

I believe that by 2010, both formats will have proven to be comparative failures, a tiny bit more succesful than SACD and DVD-Audio.

[TazExprez]

I think that Blu-ray may be the format that prevails. I went to my local BB and CC and they had these on display with the demo disc running. The HD DVD players were shelved without a display. At my local BB, the Blu-ray section, with the player and discs is very prominently displayed. They have two very small HD DVD sections. One is near the DVD section and the other is right next to the player. My CC has a couch and a big screen TV with their Blu-ray player. Their HD DVD section is behind the counter, out of sight.

I really wish that HD DVD comes out ahead, or even ties with Blu-ray. I have seen both formats in action and believe that HD DVD is the superior format. So far I have 15 HD DVD movies at home, 2 more are on their way via UPS, and I'm buying another one this week. I really enjoy this format, but Toshiba is not really promoting it. Maybe they want a big tax writeoff, or something.

[f1restarter]

VHS will rule in the end!

[eizenga13]

Retro rules apply ONLY, with Microsoft doing the Arcade Games on XBOX 360 and all...

Well If you ask me we are going to have a resurgence of Super 35 Reel-to-reel.. biyatches!

Sure it will make masterbation a LITTLE more complex but then where is your adventure!!

[darinp2]

I picked the BluRay answer, although I don't think marketing is the whole reason. I think the PS3 is likely to convince all major studios (including Universal) to release movies for BluRay (unless the PS3 slips significantly), while the XBOX360 add-on won't. And the PS3, 50GB long term disk size, and higher instantaneous rates are likely to keep any current BluRay supporting studios from defecting to only release for HD DVD.

--Darin

[AnthonyP]

you should have made it multiple choices, it would make it much easier

I don't think in 2010 there will be two formats.

I think BD still has the better chance of winning of the two. And I still think that there is a good chance that HD disks will survive, but I also still think it can be easy for neither to survive.

Even though I think it is close to 50/50 I will pick BD, I would rather have HD then not.

[Escamillo]

HD-DVD has no answer to the PS3. It makes no difference how much HD-DVD may be better/cheaper, it can't stop the PS3 freight train. Which means that we'll get stuck with the inferior format, IMO.

[RobertR1]

Originally Posted by Escamillo

HD-DVD has no answer to the PS3. It makes no difference how much HD-DVD may be better/cheaper, it can't stop the PS3 freight train. Which means that we'll get stuck with the inferior format, IMO.

By the time the PS3 is out in mass supply, there will be much cheaper stand alone players.

Not one household I know uses a gaming console as their DVD player. Infact, most of these household's have multiple stand along DVD players. People buy too much into the PS3 hype.

[nataraj]

I think all the formats will survive (2010 is not far away) ... with DVD and the hidef formats selling equally well (with DVD still in lead). Downloads will be battling both DVDs and the rental market.

The other possibility is hidef dvds will have some 1% of market share - not able to challenge the dominance of DVD.

[rdjam]

I think both formats will survive, but only because Sony will not have given up BluRry after "only" four years.

I believe that more HD DVD discs will be being pressed in 2010 and most if not all studios will be supporting HD DVD releases.

At that point in time, when there is a real mass-market (ie mainstream) for Hidef optical discs, the cost differentials in production will be making themselves most apparent.

Sony has placed themselves in a very tough position, as they have banked the entire future of the company on the success of Bluray... When the PS3 is outsold by Wii and Xbox, some execs will have a lot to answer for to the board...

[Rgb]

I believe BluRay will go the way of UMD, MD, memoryStick, microMV, and consumer Beta.

I believe the failure of BluRay will be the final motivation needed for Sony to undergo a massive overhaul, restructuring and transformation.

I believe within 18 months from now, BD's failure will cause the breakup of Sony- the divestiture of the content creation side, and independant operation of the consumer and professional lines.

IMHO, of course.

[hch]

Originally Posted by Rgb

I believe BluRay will go the way of UMD, MD, memoryStick, microMV, and consumer Beta.

I believe the failure of BluRay will be the final motivation needed for Sony to undergo a massive overhaul, restructuring and transformation.

I believe within 18 months from now, BD's failure will cause the breakup of Sony- the divestiture of the content creation side, and independant operation of the consumer and professional lines.

IMHO, of course.

The end result of the above might be a leaner, meaner, smarter Sony, instead of the myopic, self-absorbed behemoth we presently know. That would put them in a better position for winning the next format war. As I recall, Papillon's final words were "I'm still here you bastards!"

[Andrikos]

Wow, I'm surprised that HD DVD surviving is leading the poll.
I thought Bluray fans were much more numerous than HD DVD fans.

[seth.s]

The option for Blu Ray surviving without HD DVD should not include "marketing" for being the only listed reason. Marketing could be attributed to any outcome. There for my immediate response to this poll is that it serves as a shot against Blu Ray.

[Q of BanditZ]

Anything going for HVD?

[dialog_gvf]

Originally Posted by Q of BanditZ

Anything going for HVD?

I would put HVD into the download camp. It would represent the alternative burn-it-yourself storage form.

I suspect HVD would have to be duplicated (recorded) and rather than replicated (manufactured) for packaged media. So, you'd need a 300GB (picking a number out of thin air) HVD blank to be $2-$3 before it would even be considered.

On the other hand, 10x HD DVD movies downloaded onto a 300GB HVD could be economical in 2-3 years.

Gary

[Greg T]

>$500 as a survival bet is a lot more palatable as a risk than $1,000. Am I the only one that thinks that PS3 won't make a hill of beans of difference with this war? You can't compare it to PS2 and DVD . Most gamers have SD TV's and are 12 years old. I have an XBOX 360 and talk to others on live that have XBOX360. You'd be suprised at the number of people that bought XBOX360 and don't have an HDTV. Why would these people purchase movies that only play on their PS3. If they purchase movies that only play on their PS3 (that'll be their perception), they can't rip them, they can't play them in their car, or loan them to a friend with DVD player, etc,..and they look the same on their 27" CRT TV.
IMHO, to get one of these formats going, you need a relatively cheap player (Toshiba), cheap software, lots of software support, easy rental availability. If all of this happens it still might end up being a nitch market. My guess is at least 80% of the world is perfectly happy with DVD.

[Rgb]

Originally Posted by RobertR1

By the time the PS3 is out in mass supply, there will be much cheaper stand alone players.

Not one household I know uses a gaming console as their DVD player. Infact, most of these household's have multiple stand along DVD players. People buy too much into the PS3 hype.

Exactly.

Video game consoles since the Atari 2600 have been hyped as the "home entertainment/edutainment/educational/home office epicenter".

The computer add-ons for the 2600.

Then the hype around NES.

Then Cdi and 3DO.

Then the Xbox and PS2 promising "one box for gaming and DVD", which *no one* used as DVD players regularly or seriously.

Why people continue to fall for these gimmicks, letting history repeat itself, I'll never know.

[xradman]

Once universal players come out, studios are going to flock to HD-DVD. Who wants to incur additional cost of pressing BD when you could play either disc in your machine. Sony knows this and that's why they are very afraid of anyone making a universal player.

[AnthonyP]

Am I the only one that thinks that PS3 won't make a hill of beans of difference with this war?

yes

[RobertR1]

Let's hope the PS3's BR playback isn't crippled like Sony'd new Vaio with the BR player.

http://www.sonystyle.com/is-bin/INTE...seriesdesktops

Blu-ray Compatible
Blu-ray disc™ Media/Format is not universally compatible. VAIO computers do not support movie playback on packaged media recorded in AVC or VC1 formats at bit rates higher than 20 Mbps. Requires compatible high-definition display for high definition playback. Playback of HDCP encoded media requires and HDCP compliant output and HDCP compliant display.

And yes, they are arrogant/stupid enough to do such a thing.

[nyg]

Blu-Ray only will survive, marketing will bury HD DVD

This is my vote although this is dependent on Sony not taking forever to get better Blu-ray software available and of course not losing the exclusive support they have from some studios and manufacturers.

[Escamillo]

Some of you are underestimating the PS3's power to dictate the outcome. I will agree with what was said above - I too, know nobody that uses game consoles to watch DVDs. (It's kind of a lame concept, because whenever the "adult" wants to watch a DVD, he has to kick the "child" off of a game (I put "adult" and "child" in quotes, since the roles I describe can actually played by persons be of any age ). And many game consoles are in "play rooms" rather than hooked up to the main TV/Theater.)

But that's beside the point. The point is that the studios lined up behind Sony precisely because of the PS3 trojan horse strategy; they couldn't care less about whether BD is actually "better" or not. They see those milions of *potential* BD movie players, and so prostrate themselves before Sony.

If HD-DVD had the same studio support, it would be all over for BD (since it's too expensive to justify the meager advantages it has (or claims it will have in the future) over HD-DVD). But PS3 has delivered studio support. And I don't think it's like UMD, which failed despite early studio support, because UMD made zero sense at all.

[Rgb]

Originally Posted by Escamillo

because UMD made zero sense at all.

And why does BD on PS3 make any *more* sense than UMD on PMP?

[Andrikos]

Originally Posted by Rgb

And why does BD on PS3 make any *more* sense than UMD on PMP?

BD makes perfect sense on paper.
Had it not been for pesky Toshiba, Sony et al would take it slowly and they would be able to ramp up manufacturing that is actually 'manufacturable' rather than the mess they are in right now.
Plus Sony is a bone-headed operation cutting off their nose to spite their faces (i.e. not using MS's VC1)...
Only one company has the power to say "Game Over" and that is Sony.
Which way it will go, it's up to them...

[TNG]

Originally Posted by AnthonyP

yes

Sorry Anthony, just don't see it. I may not be the most knowlegdable on the subject here, but with the initial price of about $600 for a PS3 and most consumers really not aware that they are more than just a game, IMO it will be a flop long term for the viewing of BD discs.

If you have that kind of money to play games, you are going to just buy a BD or HD-DVD anyhow.

Edit:
If a kid can get the parents to pony up the funds for the PS3 and the games will initially go for about $50 that will probably come from the kids pocket, I don't think that he will go out and buy Gladiator instead of the newest RPG.
EndEdit

[Andrikos]

$600 is not that much nowadays... Hell, the iPod is $400 and everybody has them!

[TNG]

Originally Posted by Andrikos

$600 is not that much nowadays... Hell, the iPod is $400 and everybody has them!

Sorry Andrikos, had to edit that one.

The initial price is only part of the equation. Once the console is purchaced, then the game software providers are going to have to compete with the Studios (MGM, Sony, etc...) for the $'s that are spent on the media played on the console.

The I-Tunes website will offer a single song download for what 50 cents, a buck? A new game is alot more.