Would new studio neutrality at CES even be that important?

[Amiable-Akuma]

I mean, based on what we've seen so far with the two formats and what we can predict based on the foreseeable future (due to all news/announcements we've been able to read up to this point)...I don't really see a studio like Lion's Gate going neutral or not any time soon mattering much to the outcome of the war.

Obviously if Universal went neutral, that would be huge for BD - but I don't know that the HD DVD audience can't be completely happy for a good while with things as they currently stand otherwise/anyway.

I mean, even if no new studios announce neutrality at CES - I could easily see a scenario where by that point the add-on, other HD DVD players, and HD DVD software itself has still outsold BD by a significant margin. If that were true and the Q1 title release line-ups announced by Paramount, WB, and Universal also seemed as plentiful and attractive to whatever is announced by the BD group - then there is essentially no reason to say that the gap between the two formats will not continue to grow in HD DVD's favor, as it has been.

That is the kind of scenario that makes more sense at being real to me than any other. Why? Well, because that's essentially how things have played out exactly so far. That's the "historical" scenario. And looking into the immediate/known future - things don't seem set to change. The add-on and the PS3 seem like they will have equal software sales momentum and the release line-up for BD hasn't yet convinced many people of anything. I mean, "King Kong" cancels out "X-men 3". And "Casino" cancels out "Speed". Or whatever. Point is - at the end of the day, HD DVD still has more titles out, is cheaper, has a greater high PQ ratio, and is perhaps easier to find (compared to, say, the PS3).

I don't really see the future changing whether studios decide to go neutral or not. The path seems set presently. And presently the BD-exclusive studios aren't releasing or planning to release anything compelling - and so people will continue to not care.

What really needs to happen, is not just the vague notion that BD has some good exclusive studios in their corner - but rather real, tangible ACTION on behalf of it. What we need to hear is not another dry reminder that BD has more support but rather some proof. What we need to hear is: "COMING JAN/FEB 07! The entire James Bond Collection, Rocky Collection, Alien Quadrilogy, and the Die Hard trilogy in BD HD from Sony and Fox!!! **** YOU, HD DVD!!!"

But instead all we hear is "ho hum, here comes "Aliens VS Predator - ho hum, oh look here's "The Usual Suspects" to go along with "Phone Booth". WHO CARES?! It's enough to make you wonder if studios like Fox completely trust Sony and the BD format after all.

The point must be made - Warner, Universal, and Paramount are delivering to HD DVD as much content and content that's arguably better - than all of the "many" studios that only support BD combined.

I see no indications that things will change either. Both groups seem set to put out the same amount and quality of content that we've seen in the past - in the same way going forward all of these upcoming months. So absorb that truth and the fact that starting November 20th, many of us will be importing Sony/Fox titles on HD DVD from Europe anyway...and I really don't see how BD will necessarily hit any peak higher than what HD DVD has already.

[xradman]

I don't know. Kingdom of Heaven DC is making me think very hard.

[Amiable-Akuma]

Originally Posted by xradman

I don't know. Kingdom of Heaven DC is making me think very hard.

Hah, yeah, I still have to see the DC version. Saw the theatrical cut and that definitely didn't "blow my skirt up" very much. I've heard countless times though, how much better the DC is - we shall see.

Funny thing actually, what would actually be a bigger draw to me towards the BD format is - now don't laugh - ...the director's extended cut of "King Arthur" from Touchstone/Disney.

That movie didn't do much for me when I saw it at the theater - but that DC extended cut I viewed when the SD DVD version came out really hit the spot. I watched it thinking "S***! - this is pretty good!". Plus, Clive Owen as a ninja that time forgot. I mean, c'mon. Really.

[hmurchison]

Neutrality is important because it puts the battle where it should be. With the people.

Consumers have grown accustomed to battles. DVD+R vs DVD-R, SACD vs DVD-Audio, VHS vs Betamax. While this slows things down when the eventual winner emerges there is no doubt that that's what the people wanted. Democracy at its finest.

However when you have studios making the decision for you things change. As a consumer I no longer have control beyond voting with my wallet.

The media industry doesn't seem to understand that the further balkanization of their product is going to hurt them in the long run.

There is no specific title that will cause me to purchase a player. The player itself has to be affordable to mitigate the risk of potentially buying a format with no future.

The studios should be supporting the consumers. Neutrality is that support for now.

[rlsmith]

On principle, I object to it. I think consumers should be able to make independent choices about format and content. It is also foolish for the studios. As a Blu-Ray supporter, Universal is simply losing money they would have received by my buying King Kong and others of their titles. I am sure that HD DVD supporters feel the same way about the Blu-Ray studios.

There is another point here. I think that one thing that is keeping many customers from signing on to either format is their belief that the studios are not fully supporting either format. It leaves them with a very tentative feeling about the whole process. Consumers simply cannot be asked to guess which studios they are going to want to buy product from in the future. The response of the consumers is just to turn off and wait for clarity.

My overall theory is that many aspects of the format war are hurting the entire process of the adoption of hd.

[Q of BanditZ]

Originally Posted by rlsmith

On principle, I object to it. I think consumers should be able to make independent choices about format and content. It is also foolish for the studios. As a Blu-Ray supporter, Universal is simply losing money they would have received by my buying King Kong and others of their titles. I am sure that HD DVD supporters feel the same way about the Blu-Ray studios.

There is another point here. I think that one thing that is keeping many customers from signing on to either format is their belief that the studios are not fully supporting either format. It leaves them with a very tentative feeling about the whole process. Consumers simply cannot be asked to guess which studios they are going to want to buy product from in the future. The response of the consumers is just to turn off and wait for clarity.

My overall theory is that many aspects of the format war are hurting the entire process of the adoption of hd.

Couldn't agree with you more.

Sure, there are a few positives that have come out of this thing, but overall, format wars are simply bad news and as customer UN-friendly as you can possibly get.

[orogogus]

Originally Posted by Q of BanditZ

Couldn't agree with you more.

Sure, there are a few positives that have come out of this thing, but overall, format wars are simply bad news and as customer UN-friendly as you can possibly get.

While I agree with you and rlsmith that the war is likely slowing down the adoption of HD on shiny disks (and the quality that can be there that folks on this forum really care about), I disagree that the war is customer unfriendly. I think the competition between the two products has lead to better specs for both, and cheaper prices for me than I would have gotten otherwise. It's the first time I don't really feel like I got fleeced as an early adopter. If everyone one wants to sit on the fence, more power to them but I won't be. And even if I'm wrong I don't have much money suck into it anyway (thanks Netflix).

[bkilian]

Originally Posted by hmurchison

Neutrality is important because it puts the battle where it should be. With the people.

Consumers have grown accustomed to battles. DVD+R vs DVD-R, SACD vs DVD-Audio, VHS vs Betamax. While this slows things down when the eventual winner emerges there is no doubt that that's what the people wanted. Democracy at its finest.

So... um... who won in the DVD-R and DVD+R battle? Or, for that matter, SACD and DVD-Audio?

[xradman]

I think DVD-R is far ahead of DVD+R. I think about the only holdout is Philips who developed the DVD+R. I know I was duped by the + group with better compatibility. About the only place that I can read +R disc reliably is in dual format burners. Thank heavens for an universal burner.

[d3code]

it is simple. AAA movie titles + high PQ and Audio quality = sell players.

same in the game world on that regard. a game like Gears of wars sells xbox360. a game like zelda sells nintendo WII. and game like resistance fall of man sells ps3.

the overal importance though is that if you buy a ps3 you can play HD movies direct. it will 100% guarantee that who ever has a ps3 will try it out for HD movies as well since there is a movie inside for free. will that person buy more movies . that is ofcourse a good question. but if will make sure that atleast for the surviving chance for movies in HD, the ps3 is a good option.

with the HD-DVD addon for xbox360 you have to convincce people to buy it. and how do you archive people in buying that Hd-DVD addon for xbox360. that is the only thing that can hurt HD in general. or to convince people to buy a normal Hd-DVd player in that regard.

that is why i was never fond of xbox360 without the HD-DVD. i think for HD in general a xbox with Hd-DVd would have a much higher percentage chance for Hd to survive in general.

just think about it. xbox360 with HDDVd inside and PS3 with bluray inside = HD has much more chance to be accepted as next generation format for movies.

[rdjam]

I think the key point here is that the studios are recogniZing that the format confusion is hurting overall sales.

More importantly, the Bluray-exclusive studios are seeing Warner, Paramount and Universal doing sales hand over fist and realize that they are missing not only sales volumne, but potentially participation in the growth of what is starting to look like the format of choice for consumers.

It's pretty safe to say that Bluray studios are likely losing money on every release. They'll lose less money by releasing to HD DVD also, and getting extra sales.

[WickyWoo]

So... um... who won in the DVD-R and DVD+R battle? Or, for that matter, SACD and DVD-Audio?

No one won the DVD-/+R battle. Basically since all it required to support both was a tweak in firmware, everything's dual format. Not so for media formats

As for the SACD/DVDA battle, I think they both lost because consumers didn't care enough, and studios would rather release on formats with better copy protection (they saw everything was going to go HD format disc anyway)

More importantly, the Bluray-exclusive studios are seeing Warner, Paramount and Universal doing sales hand over fist and realize that they are missing not only sales volumne, but potentially participation in the growth of what is starting to look like the format of choice for consumers.

And I think they also know that in 2 weeks, BR will have 4-8x the install base of HD-DVD and a bunch of customers to buy the discs. The HD software sales advantage is purely temporary. The retailers are behind BR, all but one studio, and all but one CE. It's simply a matter of time.

It's not what the public wants, it's what the retailers want, and the last thing they want is a format war on this next big media cash cow. Why do you think we're still infected with P&S versions of new release DVDs, even though after the first month they do nothing but sit around collecting dust? Because Wal-Mart demands it. And they're not going to put up with stocking dual-releases of HD format movies for very long.

[Morningdew]

I think I agree with the original poster but maybe for different reasons. I believe HD-DVD is selling more discs for one simple reason. The players are cheaper. PQ and big title availability can be a factor but personally I feel it's only a small one when the playing field is essentially equal in the eyes of a typical consumer. For someone who is fairly uniformed and about to enter this format I'd imagine the decision would be fairly easy. They see the availability of titles as about equal in both numbers and big name releases and then realize they can get into this format today for roughly 1/2 the price of choosing option B.

I've said it many times. If HD-DVD gets a player to $199 well ahead of BR the format war is essentially over. However, if BR and HD-DVD player prices equalize and come down at an equal price the war of course will be extended and all the little things (studio support, disc prices, extras, PQ, sound formats, etc.) will play a role in determining the eventually winner if any.

I think the entrance of the PS3 can’t be considered seriously as a player because I just don’t see people using a gaming system as their primary movie player. However, I do feel PS3 has the ability to “artificially” boost BR discs sales in the meantime and it just might be the saving grace to BR. The studios will see stronger BR discs sales making them less likely to abandon BR titles and also it will buy valuable time allowing an opportunity for BR players to equalize in price with the HD-DVD players.

We’ll see.

[rdjam]

Originally Posted by WickyWoo

...And I think they also know that in 2 weeks, BR will have 4-8x the install base of HD-DVD and a bunch of customers to buy the discs. The HD software sales advantage is purely temporary.

Man, are the BD camp setting themselves up for a fall... If they said "hey, we'll see" it would be smarter. But they keep saying "The PS3 is the next coming of the messiah! Repent for your HD DVD idolatry before you be Judged! Arhhh!"

Bottom line - when the PS3 hits the market and BD sales do not catch up to HD DVD, there's gonna be a whole domino effect of changes that not even BDA lawyers can stop.

It's not what the public wants, it's what the retailers want

Thanks for the tip - I'll remember that next time I'm thinking of buying a BR movie

[WickyWoo]

Man, are the BD camp setting themselves up for a fall... If they said "hey, we'll see" it would be smarter. But they keep saying "The PS3 is the next coming of the messiah! Repent for your HD DVD idolatry before you be Judged! Arhhh!"

It's not the messiah, but if you're a studio and you look at it "Let's see, one has sold 75,000 players, the other has sold closer to 475,000 capable machines, with hundreds of thousands more likely to move in the next 6 months, which one should I support?" There's at least 6-8 million Playstation fanboys out there with money to burn who won't think twice about the $600 price point (it's the next 6-8 million that Sony has to worry about). But that's numbers I seriously doubt HD-DVD would be able to match until it's way too late. There's simply only so many enthusiasts out there (what did LD sell, 3 million decks?) to support it.

And the retailers are looking for stuff they can sell together. I think the people on this forum grossly underestimate how many people did, and still do use their PS2 as their primary deck, and are perfectly willing to use the PS3 as one as well.

I know most people HERE, myself included wouldn't, but we're talking mainstream, not the enthusiast.

[Beacon]

Originally Posted by WickyWoo

It's not the messiah, but if you're a studio and you look at it "Let's see, one has sold 75,000 players, the other has sold closer to 475,000 capable machines, with hundreds of thousands more likely to move in the next 6 months, which one should I support?"

I think you are over-estimating the number of PS3 owners that actually will BUY Blu-ray movies. Some might buy one or two, some might rent. I think that the number of HD-DVD owners actively buying movies will outnumber the PS3 owners that will be actively buying movies. The attach rates have been favoring HD-DVD all along.

[xradman]

Originally Posted by WickyWoo

It's not the messiah, but if you're a studio and you look at it "Let's see, one has sold 75,000 players, the other has sold closer to 475,000 capable machines, with hundreds of thousands more likely to move in the next 6 months, which one should I support?" There's at least 6-8 million Playstation fanboys out there with money to burn who won't think twice about the $600 price point (it's the next 6-8 million that Sony has to worry about). But that's numbers I seriously doubt HD-DVD would be able to match until it's way too late. There's simply only so many enthusiasts out there (what did LD sell, 3 million decks?) to support it.

I don't think the install base of BD will greatly outnumber HD anytime soon. Any bump made by PS3 will be countered by XBOX add-on. As to which will sell more movies, I don't think BD will ever catch up with HD-DVD. Attach rate will always be greater with HD-DVD. There, I made a prediction.

[rdjam]

Originally Posted by WickyWoo

It's not the messiah, but if you're a studio and you look at it "Let's see, one has sold 75,000 players, the other has sold closer to 475,000 capable machines,

Someone else has already addressed the attach rate issue, so I'll be content just to point out that you neglect to include the sales of the Xbox HD DVD addon in your little comparison here.... which renders your point pointless

[palofex]

Originally Posted by rdjam

Someone else has already addressed the attach rate issue, so I'll be content just to point out that you neglect to include the sales of the Xbox HD DVD addon in your little comparison here.... which renders your point pointless

Last I heard though Microsoft was only putting out 200,000 HD-DVD add-ons so HD-DVD would still be approximately 200,000 behind Blu-Ray for machines capable of playing their chosen format. I could be wrong though so if I am just ignore my post.

[hmurchison]

Originally Posted by bkilian

So... um... who won in the DVD-R and DVD+R battle? Or, for that matter, SACD and DVD-Audio?

The consumer my Microsoftian friend. Denon just announced an upscaling DVDA/SACD/DVD player for $400. With digital data all we're talking about is a carrier format usually in the form of an optical disc. Once the 1's and 0's are off the disc everything else is normalized. Universal HD DVD/Blu-ray players are inevitable IMO.


Neither format BD or HD DVD has a magic bullet. 50GB discs aren't a magic bullet for BD. Combo discs aren't a magic bullet for HD DVD.

Price really is going to be the thing that moves boxes and eventually the studios will support the millions of boxes out there.

[David Susilo]

Originally Posted by WickyWoo

It's not the messiah, but if you're a studio and you look at it "Let's see, one has sold 75,000 players, the other has sold closer to 475,000 capable machines, with hundreds of thousands more likely to move in the next 6 months, which one should I support?"

Your point is? Every memory card reader includes Memory Stick slot so there are loads and loads of people with Memory Stick capable machine. Does it make Memory Stick the de-facto standard of memory? The last time I checked it was CF cards (for pro) and SD (for consumers)

[David Susilo]

Originally Posted by palofex

Last I heard though Microsoft was only putting out 200,000 HD-DVD add-ons so HD-DVD would still be approximately 200,000 behind Blu-Ray for machines capable of playing their chosen format. I could be wrong though so if I am just ignore my post.

200,000 HD-DVD add-on will be bought to watch HD-DVD, especially when the add-on serves virtually no other purpose than that.

400,000 PS3 will be bought to play games, there is no telling how many will actually be used to watch BD.

Not saying that your logic is wrong, just stating the fact from my POV.

[rdjam]

Originally Posted by palofex

Last I heard though Microsoft was only putting out 200,000 HD-DVD add-ons ...

I'd also add that I don't think we know the true number.

I think they'll pump out as many as the market will bear.

[hmurchison]

Microsoft will pump out enough add ons until their HD DVD integrated Xbox 360 hits next year.

If they deliver 200k that's great because Toshiba is claiming 200k worldwide by the end of this year. Add in RCA and laptop enable offerings and you have likely 500k of players. A nice start to 2007.

CES will likely bring in new vendors whether they be hardware or software.

[Beacon]

Another point about the Xbox 360 HD-DVD add-on. People point to the $199 price barrier. From a certain point of view, with the release of the add-on, HD-DVD has already broken that barrier.

[Amiable-Akuma]

Originally Posted by Beacon

Another point about the Xbox 360 HD-DVD add-on. People point to the $199 price barrier. From a certain point of view, with the release of the add-on, HD-DVD has already broken that barrier.

You tell 'em, Obi-wan!!!

Seriously though, and that $199 price includes a great HD DVD movie in Kong, the necessary USB cable, and a great media remote. The PS3 does not come with a remote or even an HDMI cable.

[BuGsArEtAsTy]

Originally Posted by hmurchison

Microsoft will pump out enough add ons until their HD DVD integrated Xbox 360 hits next year.

If they deliver 200k that's great because Toshiba is claiming 200k worldwide by the end of this year. Add in RCA and laptop enable offerings and you have likely 500k of players. A nice start to 2007.

CES will likely bring in new vendors whether they be hardware or software.

I will be surprised if MS pumps out 200000 units this year. I think that number is far too LOW.

Originally Posted by Amiable-Akuma

You tell 'em, Obi-wan!!!

Seriously though, and that $199 price includes a great HD DVD movie in Kong, the necessary USB cable, and a great media remote. The PS3 does not come with a remote or even an HDMI cable.

Well, the HDMI point is moot, because an HDMI cable doesn't come with the Xbox 360 either, cuz the Xbox 360 cannot support HDMI at all.

That said, the HD DVD drive in Canada is only US$177 (CAD$199.99) with King Kong and universal remote. At this early stage of the game, that price is astonishing for an add-on device.

[Dahlsim]

Some studios still state that blu-ray has stronger DRM making it the stronger anti-piracy format.

Now of course MS would dispute that arguing that more DRM is not necessarily better DRM but the fact remains that the extra DRM layer is a factor that may keep some studios from going Neutral instead of blu-ray exclusive unless almost forced to.

Of course I doubt most consumers have any idea they are buying into more DRM with the blu-ray format so it's something that slides in under the radar for most people...

[jsacevedo]

It also seems like many people are forgetting that everyone who owns a PS3 does not have an HDTV. Just about everyone I know still has SDTVs and for the few I know who have HDTVs, most don't know what to do with them. Even though lots of us here have HDTVs, the average consumer doesn't. I think that one person in my ENTIRE family has an HDTV (other than me). So, while each Xbox 360 HD-DVD add-on will be used to play HD-DVD movies, each PS3 won't. Even though some people don't have the best common sense, I imagine that the overwhelming majority of PS3 owners with SDTVs would not buy Blu Ray discs if they are going to get the same quality from a cheaper DVD.

I wish every studio would just be neutral, because I have an HD-A1, but now I also want a Blu Ray player for those HD movies I am missing out on. But it took months to convince my wife that the HD-A1 was worth it (it = $399.99), but I don't think I'll be able to talk her into an $800-$1000 Blu Ray player. So, I guess in response to the TC's first post, yes, neutrality would be very important.

PS: I know this is off-topic, but what is J6P?

[David Susilo]

J6P = Joe Six Pack = the average consumer = me