Predict the Great Switch

[What'sHD]

To make my bias clear, the add-on is on its way from the US via an angel from heaven (aka a friend who shall be named in my will) and the PS3's asian release is anxiously awaited.

I thought it would be interesting to see when you guys think Universal will go neutral.

For the record, I think BD only studios are also just as likely to switch to neutral. I am curious about Universal cos the PS3 fulfills all my criteria for home entertainment.

[neoxxx]

I don't think they will ever have to go neutral...just my opinion.

[Dauod]

I voted never, because I believe there is just too much ill will between Universal and Sony.
I also don't see that there is any compelling reason for Universal to consider going neutral. It would be different if BD was smoking HD-DVD in movie sales, but I really don't believe that is the case. I think Sony and Universal will be the last hold outs on their respective sides, with Fox being a close second to Sony on the BD side.

[pedra12]

I think we're more likely to see BR exclusive companies go neutral before Universal.

[What'sHD]

Good to see the poll gaining a bit of traction.
Let's see if the Wisdom of Crowds works for something like this.

Spread the word, my fellow HD-lovers. cheers

[Chris_TC]

Universal won't switch.
For Fox, Disney and Lionsgate - 2007 is the switching year.

Sony will only switch when there's absolutely no other way, i.e. when Blu-ray as a movie format is effectively dead. I don't know how long this will take though.

P.S.: when I say "switch" I really mean "go neutral" of course.

[rover2002]

Originally Posted by What'sHD

Predict the Great Switch

The day after Fox go's neutral.

[Mark0]

Considering the dismal debut of blu-ray, I really doubt U?niversal will be the first to go neutral. Afterall, only a month ago I believe one of the higher ups (maybe even CEO) confirmed HD DVD was the future format for HD and they were sticking with it.

Disney or Lions Gate, on the otherhand might become format neutral in the next 6 mos.

[jwv651]

Originally Posted by pedra12

I think we're more likely to see BR exclusive companies go neutral before Universal.

I would agree more with this...Universal is dug in deep! I also believe Lions Gate will be first to cross the format line.

[vurbano]

I dont think Universal is itching to spend a bunch of cash to put movies on BluRay so they can experience dismal sales and lose money.

[Q of BanditZ]

Universal will be neutral within 6-12 months. Even now, they completely ignore BD at their own laughable folly.

Supporting both formats at this rate can only mean more money to be made. Both formats have proven that they are viable and both formats have nice size and ever growing user bases.

In a perfect world, I'd have every studio support both formats and let the chips roll where they may, but obviously we're never going to see that.

[What'sHD]

To answer a post questioning my loyalty etc., I would be interested in a poll for BD exclusive studios too.. But I am not worried about that situation cos I am getting the PS3 with HDMI, while my add-on leaves me kinda unsatisfied w/o an HDMI option.

Thus, my personal hope is that Universal goes neutral as soon as possible. And i would happy if Disney, Fox etc. go neutral too. I hope they do so that those who have invested money in the HD-DVD players can enjoy those movies too.

It's about the glorious HD experience, not corporate loyalties (my 2c)

P.S. Keep the poll going and circulate it wider, if you can. thanks

[ottscay]

Why are you interested in a poll for BD-exclusive studios? The same 65% of fanboys who voted "never" will vote "1st half of '07" when asked about when Disney or Fox will switch. It's become doctrine, not fact around here.

[Anamorphiac]

I would vote never; however, I would hold out hope that maybe the studios would come to an agreement that Universal will offer Blu-ray when Sony, FOX, etc... go neutral.

At this point in time though, I would see the Blu-ray companies approaching the HD DVD companies with this type of "truce" since HD DVD is outselling Blu-ray with every expectation for this to continue AND Universal does not have to worry about the higher production costs of Blu-ray.

I actually think this is the only thing that will save Blu-ray going forward with all the missteps we have seen. If anyone in the Blu-ray camp wants the product to move forward, if it is the technology of the future as we are being told to believe, then I would think you would want this and encourage it to happen.

[Deja Vu]

From a rational point of view all studios should be neutral. Non-neutrality meant killing HD-DVD quickly, but this really seems unlikely, especially with the Addon apparently selling so well. Disney and LG could switch without losing face, but both Fox and Universal have had harsh words for the competing format and would look pretty stupid if they did an about face - but then again, why should they care if they can make a buck?

Let's face it, once everyone can afford it we'll all have a player for each format, except the total fanboys who care more about their "team" than watching the best video available. In a couple of years one of these formats will probably fade away, or perhaps both will because everyone will be downloading their HD content and we'll all be stuck with several large paper weights (assuming we still use paper).

Cheers,

Grant

[What'sHD]

Originally Posted by ottscay

Why are you interested in a poll for BD-exclusive studios? The same 65% of fanboys who voted "never" will vote "1st half of '07" when asked about when Disney or Fox will switch. It's become doctrine, not fact around here.

Possibly, yes that may happen.

This poll is an experiment in Wisdom of Crowds. Since this crowd is far wiser than the average population on HD matters, its the "Wisdom of a wise crowd".

Let's see if it is correct..

P.S. I really hope people are not voting as fanboys. Why do that when this poll can have no effect on anything? But, I digress.. vote away and get the crowds involved.

cheers

[BuGsArEtAsTy]

Originally Posted by ottscay

Why are you interested in a poll for BD-exclusive studios? The same 65% of fanboys who voted "never" will vote "1st half of '07" when asked about when Disney or Fox will switch. It's become doctrine, not fact around here.

I expect neither side to budge in the near-term.

However, I do think that if one were to budge in 2007, it is more likely for Disney to go dual-format than Universal, given the current sales numbers of Blu-ray vs. HD DVD, and given the fact that the CEO of Disney himself at one point said that they "probably will publish in both formats".

[Amiable-Akuma]

Didn't-cha know, boy-o? BD will be destroyed in (relatively) short order and thus this question is irrelevant/non-sensical.

[Q of BanditZ]

Originally Posted by Amiable-Akuma

Didn't-cha know, boy-o? BD will be destroyed in (relatively) short order and thus this question is irrelevant/non-sensical.

And then you woke up.

[Mark0]

Originally Posted by Q of BanditZ

And then you woke up.

I hate to say it, but I think you need to wake up. HD DVD is barely staying alive and Blu-ray is bleeding profusely with a weak pulse.

It costs money to release titles in HD. So, no it's not as simple as "if they want to make more money, they'll release on both formats". I wish it were.

We're already seeing signs of at least one studio cutting back on the slower selling format. Hopefully there's enough interest in HD DVD to give HD packaged media a life of it's own.

[orogogus]

I voted 2009 or later just because if BD ends up killing off HD DVD then I fully expect them to cash in on a revenue stream the same way that Fox eventually came around to DVD. Just covering my butt.

[Victor]

Originally Posted by Mark0

It costs money to release titles in HD. So, no it's not as simple as "if they want to make more money, they'll release on both formats". I wish it were.

It's cheap to issue disc when you have appropriate digital source. If it was not so, pirates in different countries of the world would not produce $3 DVDs digitizing film by themselves

[dialog_gvf]

I don't have any idea. I would say the answer for both sides would be: When there is real money to be made.

That's when studios made the move with DVD.

Gary

[Anamorphiac]

Originally Posted by orogogus

...the same way that Fox eventually came around to DVD.

FOX came around to DVD? Did I miss something? When did my anamorphic transfer of "The Abyss" come out?

Another reason I am supporting HD DVD over Blu-ray with my consumer $'s...the Blu-ray exclusive studios have been all about making the wrong decisions initially in any dealings with technology offered to their customers (Sony, Disney and Fox have always been on the wrong side initially...nothing has proven to me this is any different.)

[BuGsArEtAsTy]

Sony was on the side of DVD, and fought against DIVX.

[Mark0]

Originally Posted by Victor

It's cheap to issue disc when you have appropriate digital source. If it was not so, pirates in different countries of the world would not produce $3 DVDs digitizing film by themselves

While I agree there's lots of room for profit (they do with DVD), creating an HD master, tweaking, editing, encoding the movie and audio are only part of it, then you've got the extras, menu's, packaging, etc... This is not something studios bang out in an hour... or even a day. So I'm guessing it costs a couple hundred thousand for even a run-of-the-mill digital transfer. That means they got to sell at least 25,000 disks to break even. Currently, I bet only a few HD DVD's have turned a profit. Not even sure if ay Blu-ray titles have made the studios any money.

I'll admit, I'm really just throwing numbers out there, but maybe you get the idea, it ain't so simple...

[Anamorphiac]

Originally Posted by BuGsArEtAsTy

Sony was on the side of DVD, and fought against DIVX.

Oops, sorry...I guess "always" was a slight exaggeration...

BetaMax...Mini-Disk...etc...

[BuGsArEtAsTy]

Originally Posted by Mark0

So I'm guessing it costs a couple hundred thousand for even a run-of-the-mill digital transfer.

That's sounds quite high, if the studio already a clean source to work with.

However, I'm guessing too.

[yoyoniner]

They will be neutral within 6-12 months because Penton-Man, who basically predicts everything right and is an insider, hinted at it in the same manner he has hinted at everything else he know months ahead of time.

Once Universal goes neutral the war is then over. All major studios and 90% of CE manufacturers will be aligned with one format and we can move on with our lives.

[roma_victor]

Originally Posted by yoyoniner

They will be neutral within 6-12 months because Penton-Man, who basically predicts everything right and is an insider, hinted at it in the same manner he has hinted at everything else he know months ahead of time.

Could you provide links to these posts please?