Microsoft's Kevin Collins on '07 HD DVD Releases - HTF Chat Excerpts

[Brajesh]

Pretty enticing: Have a look! I want street dates now!

Excerpts:

"For instance, the Matrix trilogy will be coming out this year from WHV, Star Trek will be exclusive to HD DVD this year, Babel and The Good Shepherd. All in all there will be over 600 HD DVD titles by EOY."

"It is my understanding from the HD DVD group that it will be the feature films [Star Trek]"

"Universal announced "The Good Shepherd" and "Babel" They have a slew of titles that will be coming out in 2007. I have seen the list and it is very impressive, so there is nothing bad going on with Universal. you will be happy with what will happen in 2007!"

[DrDon]

Thread rolled back. Let's start over.

[hmurchison]

I'm thinking there's going to be enough movies to keep me happy this year. Period.

Originally Posted by DrDon

Thread rolled back. Let's start over.

Wow now that's a cool feature!

[Fettastic]

So let's pretend for a second that what I've said is true, that 150 titles will be slowly released throughout the year.

So far 13 titles have been released or announced for January. Either, by your theory, the other 387 titles are coming in the months ahead, marking a huge uptick in releases, or 13 per month is the average.

Let's add up the numbers shall we?

13 times 12 equals.....156! WOW, now ain't THAT a koinki-dink!

[Forceflow]

Originally Posted by hmurchison

I'm thinking there's going to be enough movies to keep me happy this year. Period.

Well said. Enough of the sky is falling bs. HD DVD is not dead, BD is on its heels in hardware so its making wild announcements (their usual) on software.

Frankly, they've delayed a good deal of their software indefinitely like Glory so whatever announcements they make I take a "wait and see" approach anyways.

At least with HD DVD, when its announced, its coming. Its just waiting until its announced that gets annoying.

[Fettastic]

It seems that every time I write about the slowdown, AVS plugs their ears and starts screaming "LA LA LA LA LA!".

[Fettastic]

Originally Posted by Forceflow

Well said. Enough of the sky is falling bs. HD DVD is not dead, BD is on its heels in hardware so its making wild announcements (their usual) on software.

Frankly, they've delayed a good deal of their software indefinitely like Glory so whatever announcements they make I take a "wait and see" approach anyways.

At least with HD DVD, when its announced, its coming. Its just waiting until its announced that gets annoying.

You mean like Poseidon? And Digital Video Essentials? And the BCI titles? And Chronos?

[mdc3000]

I was hoping for more title info, but some decent tidbits...however, Paramount announced Babel, not Universal.

[hmurchison]

There's just a bunch of control freaks on this board that somehow think that complaining about the lack of information is helpful and that somehow the movies aren't in fact coming. If Universal and others state 300 movies are coming THEY are the definitive source not some bloke on AVS blowing steam.

R-E-L-A-X

[plazman]

Originally Posted by Fettastic

So let's pretend for a second that what I've said is true, that 150 titles will be slowly released throughout the year.

So far 13 titles have been released or announced for January. Either, by your theory, the other 387 titles are coming in the months ahead, marking a huge uptick in releases, or 13 per month is the average.

Let's add up the numbers shall we?

13 times 12 equals.....156! WOW, now ain't THAT a koinki-dink!

Fett, here is one way to do the math, if you want to make your estimation somewhat scientific.

Plot the number of HD DVD titles released last year for each Q. The key would be the # of titles in Q4, since that is a good baseline to use for 2007 estimation.

- Now assume that the number of titles released last Q4 would be the benchmark for titles in Q1 and Q2 of this year.

- Then for Q3 and Q4, try and factor in the growth rate since studios will tend to release more closer to the holidays. You can use the growth rate of last year, but discount it by 50% since one can assume that the growth rate this year will be lower than last year.

To summarize:

Total HD DVD titles available in 2007 =

1. Q1 = # of titles released in Q4 2006
2. Q2 = # of titles released in Q4 2006
3. Q3 = (#of titles released in Q4 2006)(1 + .5*(#Q3 '06 - #Q2'06)/#Q2))
4. Q4 = (# of titles released in Q4 2006) (1 + .5(#Q4'06 - #Q3'06)/Q3))

1+2+3+4 = Total titles in 2007!

Just an idea

[Fettastic]

Originally Posted by hmurchison

There's just a bunch of control freaks on this board that somehow think that complaining about the lack of information is helpful and that somehow the movies aren't in fact coming. If Universal and others state 300 movies are coming THEY are the definitive source not some bloke on AVS blowing steam.

R-E-L-A-X

NOBODY has said they WEREN'T coming. As they say in their press release, those titles will be the total WORLDWIDE.

[plazman]

Originally Posted by Fettastic

It seems that every time I write about the slowdown, AVS plugs their ears and starts screaming "LA LA LA LA LA!".

This is AV-Science forum. You need to provide better analysis. JMHO.

[hmurchison]

Originally Posted by Fettastic

NOBODY has said they WEREN'T coming. As they say in their press release, those titles will be the total WORLDWIDE.

Then what's the issue here? If they're coming then we only need wait for release dates.

[Big J]

Originally Posted by Fettastic

So let's pretend for a second that what I've said is true, that 150 titles will be slowly released throughout the year.

So far 13 titles have been released or announced for January. Either, by your theory, the other 387 titles are coming in the months ahead, marking a huge uptick in releases, or 13 per month is the average.

Let's add up the numbers shall we?

13 times 12 equals.....156! WOW, now ain't THAT a koinki-dink!

except, there will be 300 titles released this year.
J

[Fettastic]

Originally Posted by hmurchison

Then what's the issue here? If they're coming then we only need wait for release dates.

Because some people want to believe that 600 HD DVDs are being released in the US alone this year!

And Plazman, I don't know how you figure Q4 of last year should equal Q1 of this year, especially with the unimpressive slate so far.

[Johnsteph10]

Originally Posted by plazman

This is AV-Science forum. You need to provide better analysis. JMHO.

Exactly.

Can't people understand that studios release movies WITHOUT announcing them months ahead of schedule? Lots of movies on both sides were released last year some with only a few weeks notice.

[Fettastic]

Originally Posted by Big J

except, there will be 300 titles released this year.
J

INCLUDING ALL FOREIGN RELEASES!

What the heck is going on here? Is Rod Serling going to pop into my office? Maybe Allan Fundt? Now that WOULD be a trick.

[Fettastic]

Originally Posted by Johnsteph10

Exactly.

Can't people understand that studios release movies WITHOUT announcing them months ahead of schedule? Lots of movies on both sides were released last year some with only a few weeks notice.

Has anyone even remotely challenged that? What do you think, that because we don't have the schedule for the entire year that I'm claiming only the announced titles are going to be released?

[swanlee]

Fettastic while I appreciate all the work you've done on the tier thread here it really seems like you have become a negative ninny about HD-DVD. The titles are either coming or they aren't HD-DVD will either survive or it won't no reason to be so overly negative about it all the time now.

If HD-DVD dropped dead as of today I would still have my 40 + HD-DVD's that I enjoy very much plus at least 20 out right now I will end up buying.



"INCLUDING ALL FOREIGN RELEASES!"

Seeing as HD-DVD is region free and there is no more PAL\NTSC issues, most foreign releases are completely accessible to the majority of us.

I already have 3 imported titles plus right now about 5-6 more I'd like to buy.

[Dave Mack]

http://www.avsforum.com/avs-vb/showthread.php?t=783777

[trgraphics]

I agree. Fettastic has done a very hard 180 when he bought that game console. He used to do the same thing to BR threads so obviously he just likes to stir up trouble. Sad to say that, by the way.

I don't understand all the confusion about the number of releases coming this year. They stated 300 titles for this year. If it's 299 will we be subjected to Fettastic's neverending bashing?

It's only the middle of January for crying out loud.

[Dave Mack]

Are any of the 300 worldwide releases going to be the same title in europe as here? (I honestly don't know...)

[Big J]

Originally Posted by Fettastic

INCLUDING ALL FOREIGN RELEASES!

What the heck is going on here? Is Rod Serling going to pop into my office? Maybe Allan Fundt? Now that WOULD be a trick.

Ah, a mature response...
Are you assuming that the 300 will be 150 in the US and the identical 150 abroad? Or, that foreign releases don't count because they are foreign? I'm not, nor do I see any reason to think so. Since there is no region coding, I plan on getting discs from overseas occasionally.
J

[plazman]

My point was that if you want to cast doubt on the number of releases, you need to back it up with some analysis. OK, if you don't want to take Q4 as the benchmark, that's fine. But at least it shows how many titles the format can put out in a Q. Let's do a Q v. Q analysis. Q1 07 v. Q1 06 etc. But you can't say that HD DVD won't deliver 300 titles or whatever. The current rate tells me, 300 titles should be a problem. We ended up with 150 last year and we were what, fewer than 12 at the end of April? We're at 13 already!

I may be wrong, but at least I'm trying to come to a conclusion through a more thorough analysis of the data....

FWIW, what is the expected gap between Q4 06 and Q1 07?

[chap]

I really wish he would have given more of the universal titles.

[Michael Mullis]

Fettastic, just out of curiosity. You posted a thread earlier this month where you renounced your love for HD DVD. Are you still buying HD DVD's or format neutral at this point? Because since that post you've been really walking the tightrope of BD fanboyism. It's not quite full blown like a couple of the other people that seems to have to bash HD DVD in the HD DVD software forum where many of us THOUGHT that was against the rules.

So if you're so disillusioned with HD DVD where you have to attack news that comes from it, why are you here and not over on the Blu-ray forums?

[Forceflow]

I just don't understand how people can "renounce" HD DVD. I own a PS3, doesn't change my opinion in one iota that HD DVD is the better format, but I never denied that BD has plenty to offer too. Why can't people be in the middle and reasonable?

[Brajesh]

Exactly. I'd actually like to see both formats survive. Even if LG isn't allowed to release their universal player now, I have a feeling we'll see them eventually. Then, it'll be like comparing DD vs. DTS and those arguments might actually be more interesting.

[Forceflow]

Originally Posted by Brajesh

Exactly. I'd actually like to see both formats survive. Even if LG isn't allowed to release their universal player now, I have a feeling we'll see them eventually. Then, it'll be like comparing DD vs. DTS and those arguments might actually be more interesting.

FWIW, the LG player has been sighted at CompUSAs.

[giza]

All I can say is that was an awesome chat session. I look forward to supporting HD-DVD in the future because of people like him. He didn't promise anything or completely try to bash BR. Classy.