Netflix says HD DVD, Blu Ray Even - But Tiny

[karlw2000]

In the SJ Mercury News:

http://www.mercurynews.com/breakingnews/ci_6700901

Q: What kind of demand are you seeing for Blu-ray and HD-DVD?

A: We carry all the Blu-ray titles and we carry all the HD-DVD, so we're agnostic. And we think the solution in that market is to have the studios publish on both. . . . (Customer demand) is pretty evenly split between them (but it's) tiny, like a percent or something.

[42Plasmaman]

Try renting Blu-ray on Blockbuster.
The majority have a 2 week wait.

And they seem to have co-located distribution centers because when I was using them, I got my DVD's over night and they received them overnight since the PO box was also local.

So, I can only assume they have a set amount of BD per region/city but it seems they are being rented like hot cakes.

[rdjam]

This remark from Netflix is yet another indication that BD and HD DVD numbers are much closer togther than the Nielsen First Alert numbers have been leading us to believe.

I feel quite strongly that the NFA numbers could be affected greatly by Sony.com's sales of BD only titles, and the particular subest of retailers who are reporting HDM sales to NFA.

[Grubert]

Originally Posted by rdjam

This remark from Netflix is yet another indication that BD and HD DVD numbers are much closer togther than the Nielsen First Alert numbers have been leading us to believe.

I feel quite strongly that the NFA numbers could be affected greatly by Sony.com's sales of BD only titles, and the particular subest of retailers who are reporting HDM sales to NFA.

Bollocks.

[anttimonty]

Originally Posted by rdjam

This remark from Netflix is yet another indication that BD and HD DVD numbers are much closer togther than the Nielsen First Alert numbers have been leading us to believe.

I feel quite strongly that the NFA numbers could be affected greatly by Sony.com's sales of BD only titles, and the particular subest of retailers who are reporting HDM sales to NFA.

The formats are only closer to each other in netflix because that is pretty much the only place where you can rent HD DVD.

[cybereality]

Originally Posted by rdjam

This remark from Netflix is yet another indication that BD and HD DVD numbers are much closer togther than the Nielsen First Alert numbers have been leading us to believe.

I feel quite strongly that the NFA numbers could be affected greatly by Sony.com's sales of BD only titles, and the particular subest of retailers who are reporting HDM sales to NFA.

These have got be be recent trends (ie after the A2 went to $300). I suspect the Neilsen numbers will start to reflect all these changes at some point. Its also possible that the Netflix demographic is just different than Blockbuster or retail sales. Its fair to assume HD DVD owners are users trying to save money (by buying the cheaper player) so it kinda makes sense they might be cheap with discs (to an extent). Maybe HD DVD owners just rent more while BD owners buy more. It probably a combination of all those factors.

[Kosty]

This remark from Netflix is yet another indication that BD and HD DVD numbers are much closer togther than the Nielsen First Alert numbers have been leading us to believe.

I feel quite strongly that the NFA numbers could be affected greatly by Sony.com's sales of BD only titles, and the particular subest of retailers who are reporting HDM sales to NFA.

Originally Posted by Grubert

Bollocks.

I agree.

The first alert numbers are at the most a few % from the final Nielson numbers on a consistent basis.

The Nielson numbers may be low for HD DVD by a few % based on the probable skew toward larger retailers and the msiing out of some smaller retailers where the first enthusiast HD DVD owners bought their early models or maybe missing some Internet retailers.

But ain't no way that HD DVD sales have kept up with the Blu-ray sales after the PS3 launched. The YTD SI and Weekly numbers may be undercounted for HD DVD some and for Blu-ray a little, but they are not that much off.

[Bailey151]

Originally Posted by anttimonty

The formats are only closer to each other in netflix because that is pretty much the only place where you can rent HD DVD.

Um.....ah........you are aware that Lackluster only went "exclusive" in stores, stores that didn't already rent HD DVDs, right?

<- scratches head trying to figure out where those yellow & blue envelopes with HD DVDs inside came from

Originally Posted by Kosty

I agree.

The first alert numbers are at the most a few % from the final Nielson numbers on a consistent basis.

Agree.............sort of............I do think the Nielsen numbers are a bit flawed, they are missing some data. According to Home Media Research, the totals through July are 2.2 million in Blu-Ray and 1.5 million in HD DVD, or roughly 1.46:1.

The numbers may be much closer than the 2:1 we accept, it may be part of the reason Paramount made the switch. If the sales are 1.4:1 (or closer) with a 5:1 hardware edge it would make BD sales look dismal.

[Slim GoodBooty]

Originally Posted by 42Plasmaman

Try renting Blu-ray on Blockbuster.
The majority have a 2 week wait.

And they seem to have co-located distribution centers because when I was using them, I got my DVD's over night and they received them overnight since the PO box was also local.

So, I can only assume they have a set amount of BD per region/city but it seems they are being rented like hot cakes.

I am not having that issue with Blockbuster. BD and HDDVD are pretty much the same online and in the store.

[Grubert]

Originally Posted by Bailey151

Agree.............sort of............I do think the Nielsen numbers are a bit flawed, they are missing some data. According to Home Media Research, the totals through July are 2.2 million in Blu-Ray and 1.5 million in HD DVD, or roughly 1.46:1.

That's SI you're looking at. Not YTD.

YTD sales per HMR by the end of Q2 are 1.6 million vs 795K, or 2.01:1.

[Bailey151]

Originally Posted by Grubert

That's SI you're looking at. Not YTD.

YTD sales per HMR by the end of Q2 are 1.6 million vs 795K, or 2.01:1.

Gotcha, thanks.

(still don't think those numbers look good )

[Mike1117]

Originally Posted by Grubert

That's SI you're looking at. Not YTD.

YTD sales per HMR by the end of Q2 are 1.6 million vs 795K, or 2.01:1.

The year to date sales lead for BD is actually pretty pathetic when you consider the facts:

1. HD DVD "slipped" up and had very few releases in the first quarter of 2007.

2. BD ran a bunch of "buy one get one free" sales, 50% off sales, and gave away BD coupons - all of which crossed a sales register in order to drive up its sales numbers.

3. Up until recently when Sony matched Toshiba's get 5 free discs offer, the Toshiba offer actually reduced sales when compared to BD because people where getting free discs and not purchasing them at retail.

4. How many PS3's are there again???

5. BD had more exclusive "blockbuster" hits than HD DVD - CR, POTC, ect...

6. Neutral movies released on HD DVD combo discs - many people do not like the idea of the combo disc or its $5 higher price tag. Therefore, many neutral format owners bought the cheaper BD version to avoid the combo disc.

When you examine the facts, if I was Sony I wouldn't be so happy with that sales lead.

[DB2]

So what you're saying is roughly the same amount of people rent HD-DVD online but more people buy Blu-Ray (given the sales data). Anything else?

[Grubert]

Originally Posted by Mike1117

The year to date sales lead for BD is actually pretty pathetic when you consider the facts:

1. HD DVD "slipped" up and had very few releases in the first quarter of 2007.

2. BD ran a bunch of "buy one get one free" sales, 50% off sales, and gave away BD coupons - all of which crossed a sales register in order to drive up its sales numbers.

3. Up until recently when Sony matched Toshiba's get 5 free discs offer, the Toshiba offer actually reduced sales when compared to BD because people where getting free discs and not purchasing them at retail.

4. How many PS3's are there again???

5. BD had more exclusive "blockbuster" hits than HD DVD - CR, POTC, ect...

6. Neutral movies released on HD DVD combo discs - many people do not like the idea of the combo disc or its $5 higher price tag. Therefore, many neutral format owners bought the cheaper BD version to avoid the combo disc.

When you examine the facts, if I was Sony I wouldn't be so happy with that sales lead.

All of the above are very valid opinions. I was just clarifying a statistic.

[Lee Stewart]

Originally Posted by Mike1117

The year to date sales lead for BD is actually pretty pathetic when you consider the facts:

1. HD DVD "slipped" up and had very few releases in the first quarter of 2007.

2. BD ran a bunch of "buy one get one free" sales, 50% off sales, and gave away BD coupons - all of which crossed a sales register in order to drive up its sales numbers.

3. Up until recently when Sony matched Toshiba's get 5 free discs offer, the Toshiba offer actually reduced sales when compared to BD because people where getting free discs and not purchasing them at retail.

4. How many PS3's are there again???

5. BD had more exclusive "blockbuster" hits than HD DVD - CR, POTC, ect...

6. Neutral movies released on HD DVD combo discs - many people do not like the idea of the combo disc or its $5 higher price tag. Therefore, many neutral format owners bought the cheaper BD version to avoid the combo disc.

When you examine the facts, if I was Sony I wouldn't be so happy with that sales lead.

So maybe Paramount wasn't so crazy after all? If we see it with limited "raw" data . . . what did they see with real data? Answer - The Emperors New Clothes

[borland502]

Originally Posted by Mike1117

When you examine the facts, if I was Sony I wouldn't be so happy with that sales lead.

Quite so, I'm sure they would like it to be 100:1 and I, personally, would like to earn 10x what I do now. If the PS3 were a stand-alone, it would be suffering. But tying to the games market they have another source to sustain it, even if they have only exceeded 360 sales WW within the last month.

While 2:1 may not be all they hoped from the PS3, it is still a friggin' 2:1 advantage in sales. And the possibility always exists that they can convince people with a Blu-Ray player in hand already, to use it as such. Besides, the PS3 was always intended as a place holder for standalones eventually.

The Trojans inside the horse only opened the gates after all; they didn't win the city by themselves.

[guima]

"4. How many PS3's are there again???"

Right, we've been there before. PS3s don't equal SW sales, cause only AVSers are (crazy enough to) buying HD SW. Though a larger percent of those PS3s DO affect rentals, that's why I think this is BS.

It's incorrect to compare rentals with sales, or to use sales numbers to "guess" rentals.

[Lee Stewart]

According to a recent article discussing increasing BD Retail Revenue Sharing with Rentrak, Michael Whoever from Sony stated that Rental Revene made up less than 10% of the revenue stream that Sony was seeing on BD.

[borland502]

Originally Posted by Lee Stewart

what did they see with real data?

Do corporations always see "real data" and make the appropriate choices based on it? Is there real data to see?

I'm not saying your wrong, since we are all speculating on the future...but your post made me smile. I kept thinking of some God-like corporation peering at the destiny of the marketplace.

[rdjam]

Originally Posted by Grubert

Bollocks.

Well that was a lucid and coherent response

Which part was b*ll*cks?

The fact that Netflix is reporting roughly 50/50 rental sales for the two formats? Or the fact that First Alert's data and Rentrak may not be exactly the TRUE picture out there. Or the fact that Sony.com's BD sales may be reported to First Alert each week and that this may well affect the overall average?

[rdjam]

Originally Posted by Kosty

The first alert numbers are at the most a few % from the final Nielson numbers on a consistent basis.

Kosty, I feel you have a lot of credibility, so I'll take your word for it.

But... I'd just like to make sure that you have been able to compare the real Nielsen numbers with First Alert each week. What we seen printed in HM magazine each week is not Nielsen Videoscan, but is simply the First Alert data. I assume that you had had enough access to the private Videoscan numbers to validate the First Alert numbers we ar seeing each week, yes?

[khwiggins2]

I've never trusted Neilsen data and always felt that the sampling model they use is flawed somehow. That's the only reason I can see for so many good shows having bad ratings and getting canceled.

[Bailey151]

Originally Posted by khwiggins2

I've never trusted Neilsen data and always felt that the sampling model they use is flawed somehow. That's the only reason I can see for so many good shows having bad ratings and getting canceled.

Jericho

[Mike1117]

Originally Posted by borland502

While 2:1 may not be all they hoped from the PS3, it is still a friggin' 2:1 advantage in sales.

Yeah, but when you run a bunch of "buy one get one free" and 50% off sales you're hoping the sales generate more than a 2:1 advantage. Plus your profit margin drops big time too.

Again, you have a supposed huge install base advantage from PS3, you had an advantage in available titles for sale, you had BDA running fire sales and you had Toshiba giving away more discs that did not count as sales and you ended up with a "friggin' 2:1 advantage." Big friggin' deal - sounds like a failure to me.

[gtgray]

I think we all know it is a flawed tool. But the studios know how much they sold and they probably have pretty good modeling to tell the over a time period with smoothing how to adjust the Nielsen numbers based on their own internal metrics, including reorder actitivity. While Videoscan is good for some talking points if you are not Sony, then you pretty much have to pull Sony sales out of the market as that is really captive sales and reduce the opportunity in BD for the rest.

[borland502]

Originally Posted by Mike1117

Big friggin' deal - sounds like a failure to me.

If it were only a week, or only a month, I would grant you points. But as the HD market expands, the sales ratio has been fairly consistent towards Blu Ray. Unless HD DVD moves the ratio for more than a brief period, then it will be losing more than Sony in the end.

The double dip the PS3 does in the video and gaming markets insulates it from being judged solely on the video attach rate. And if it is still a failure, then how much greater is the failure of the HD-DVD attachment for the 360 to accomplish the same task? If even a small percentage of the 360 population bought and used it, then it would have won the day. And what will you say about attach rate and success if the HD DVD laptop push doesn't budge figures next year?

Look, in this nascent market things can change very fast. But even if you take the most pessimistic view of the PS3, it still shifted the balance and kept any coverage of software sales favoring Blu Ray. At the very, very least the PS3 is buying time for Blu Ray standalones to match HD DVD pricing.

[Bailey151]

Originally Posted by borland502

Look, in this nascent market things can change very fast. But even if you take the most pessimistic view of the PS3, it still shifted the balance and kept any coverage of software sales favoring Blu Ray. At the very, very least the PS3 is buying time for Blu Ray standalones to match HD DVD pricing.

Absolutely! The devil is that the sword cuts both ways. It has indeed shifted media sales & helped the PR battle - unfortunately it has also demonstrated that a console can not carry the flag of BD with it's poor attach rates.

Which all just makes it very interesting.

[Lee Stewart]

Originally Posted by borland502

Do corporations always see "real data" and make the appropriate choices based on it? Is there real data to see?

I'm not saying your wrong, since we are all speculating on the future...but your post made me smile. I kept thinking of some God-like corporation peering at the destiny of the marketplace.

They see the detailed Nielsen Videoscan Report. I think it's between 10 and 15 pages . . . we see one number - gross sales per format in the form of a %.

They could see sale of HDM players - purchased from the CEA if they are tracking it via POS or doing studies and polls. It is what they do. And like Nielsen only less frequent - we are treated to a crumb of information

So how much am I speculating?

[karlw2000]

I was surprised that Netflix feels their balance of HD rentals was about even because I only know of 1 other guy with HD DVD and 4 guys with PS3. I'm talking only engineers here who can easily afford this 'hobby'. When I asked if they buy movies, only the HD DVD guy buys some (he bought the Matrix box set off me that I got for $20) and all the PS3 guys rent only. With so many PS3's, I expected the 2:1 ratio in rentals from Netflix. If I remember correctly, BB said their ratio was 70% Blu.

Interestingly, when I mention how inexpensive the Toshiba A2 is, they say they will consider it. They all most definitely said they would never have bought Blu if it wasn't built into the PS3. 3 of the BR guys do like games, 1 only bought the PS3 to watch HD.

[thebland]

[quote=rdjam;11405997]This remark from Netflix is yet another indication that BD and HD DVD numbers are much closer togther than the Nielsen First Alert numbers have been leading us to believe.

QUOTE]


...amongst Netflix RENTERs.

Nothing else.