Will the BDA eventually become more powerful than the DVD Forum? - AVS Forum
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post #1 of 57 Old 02-29-2008, 12:33 AM - Thread Starter
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Will the BDA eventually become more powerful than the DVD Forum? Personally I think it could happen in as little as 3 years but I am curious to see how many people think that it will never happen. Also to clarify what I meant by "more powerful" I was thinking along the lines of total economic effect on the marketplace.
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post #2 of 57 Old 02-29-2008, 12:34 AM
 
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Poll?
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post #3 of 57 Old 02-29-2008, 12:58 AM - Thread Starter
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Quote:
Originally Posted by briankmonkey View Post

Poll?

Yes, and discussion about the topic is welcome as well. Also for anyone wondering why he asked the thread is made before the poll is made when you make a poll on AVS Forum.
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post #4 of 57 Old 02-29-2008, 01:04 AM
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I think much of it depends on how well the BDA mobilizes a plan of brainwa... er... education. If they can get the average consumer to recognize that there's something called "Blu-ray" out there and that it's "better than DVD", they'll succeed.

I was a little iffy about whether or not Blu-ray could become mainstream, but I recently came to the realization that there are a number of still-powerful entities out there whose fortunes are tied inextricably to the success of optical media. Blockbuster and Netflix are the obvious winners if Blu-ray successfully holds off a major shift towards video-on-demand, and most brick and mortar retailers "win" in this scenario as well, so I'm expecting that all of the above will be joining the CEs and studios in their attempts to publicize Blu-ray (and probably demonize DVD while they're at it).
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post #5 of 57 Old 02-29-2008, 01:10 AM
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I voted YES since it is likely that members of the DVD Forum ( that haven't already ) will join the BDA. The BDA has a year to get its act together in order to have a chance of replacing DVDs or VOD. The standards should be finalized with Profile 2.0.

HD-DVD = 94
Blu-Ray = 120 ( 24 Warner red2blu )
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post #6 of 57 Old 02-29-2008, 01:42 AM
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The DVD Forum is not very powerful, period, first of all. They established the DVD format, and basically nothing at all since then. They accomplished nothing with recordable DVDs; witness the + and - versions, which are basically equal in the market (or maybe + is a bit ahead, having had DL discs available first). The forum's HD disc format has now failed, and there is probably nothing else the DVD Forum can decide or promote that will carry any weight in the home-entertainment business. For example, if the Apple or Microsoft HD download systems started to gain real market share in a few years, like 10-20% of rental revenue for either, but then the DVD Forum came out with a different system even with some big partners, do you think the MS/Apple one would just shrink away then? Since there is no "power" there, the BDA has nothing to take over from the DVD Forum.

If you are just asking whether BD will eventually sell more copies then the same title on DVD, that is a different question, but is not related to 'BDA versus DVD Forum'.

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post #7 of 57 Old 02-29-2008, 02:04 AM
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I voted no.

Before the BDA could overrun the DVD Forum the Forum would rather throw them a bone and accomplish the Blu-Ray as the official offspring of the DVD.

BTW: The DVD Forum lists more than 800 members. So it's 800 vs 8.

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post #8 of 57 Old 02-29-2008, 02:19 AM
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how about a 3rd option. An "I dunno" option
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post #9 of 57 Old 02-29-2008, 02:44 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Blinx123 View Post

BTW: The DVD Forum lists more than 800 members. So it's 800 vs 8.

800 vs. ~270 you mean.

Pretty much all the members of the BDA are also DVD Forum members in some capacity. Of the Nine Founders of the BDA, several are very high ranking members of the DVD Forum.

The DVD Forum's realm of influence is DVD. The BDA's realm of influence is Blu-ray. These are not mutually in opposition to each other, so it doesn't matter how powerful the DVD Forum is because they have no interest in Blu-ray, and it doesn't matter how powerful the BDA becomes because they have no interest in DVD and their members are all DVD Forum members anyways and they participate in the DVD Forum for DVD-related matters.
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post #10 of 57 Old 02-29-2008, 05:31 AM
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I believe the BDA has made the DVD Forum irrelevant by retaining there positions in the Forum but also directly competing against its formats and approved standards.
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post #11 of 57 Old 02-29-2008, 06:13 AM - Thread Starter
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Quote:
Originally Posted by wormraper View Post

how about a 3rd option. An "I dunno" option

Just my preference since in an internet forum poll I like encouraging people to make a choice so if they vote in the poll they vote for the option they consider most likely.


Quote:
Originally Posted by TomsHT View Post

I believe the BDA has made the DVD Forum irrelevant by retaining there positions in the Forum but also directly competing against its formats and approved standards.

Well just to point this out but it would be illegal to make the standards of an organization binding which is why HP and Thomson could remain members of the Board of Directors in the BDA even when they started supporting HD DVD. As such this situation has been seen in both the BDA and DVD Forum and there are many companies that are members of both. In my opinion it is a good thing that standards aren't binding in an organization since I consider both DVD+R/RW and Blu-ray to be better than the competing standards that were made in the DVD Forum.
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post #12 of 57 Old 02-29-2008, 06:22 AM
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Of course it will.

DVD will go away eventually, and then all that will be left will be BD.

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post #13 of 57 Old 02-29-2008, 06:49 AM
 
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DVD is in over 82% of all USA households. More people have a DVD player than Internet access (78%)

As of April 2007 (10th anniversary) there are over 8 BILLION DVD's in the wild. There are over 80,000 movie titles and a combined title release of over 200,000

For BD to "be more powerful" then the DVD Forum, HDTV penetration would have to go higher than 82%. It is currently sitting at about 35% . . . after 10 years.

IMO - no, the BDA will not replace the DVD Forum. Not enough time. Technology is moving too fast. The next big thing will arrive before BD can ever replace DVD.
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post #14 of 57 Old 02-29-2008, 06:54 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Lee Stewart View Post

DVD is in over 82% of all USA households. More people have a DVD player than Internet access (78%)

As of April 2007 (10th anniversary) there are over 8 BILLION DVD's in the wild. There are over 80,000 movie titles and a combined title release of over 200,000

For BD to "be more powerful" then the DVD Forum, HDTV penetration would have to go higher than 82%. It is currently sitting at about 35% . . . after 10 years.

IMO - no, the BDA will not replace the DVD Forum. Not enough time. Technology is moving too fast. The next big thing will arrive before BD can ever replace DVD.

Yeah. And even then. Who tells you that all the people with a HDTV are going to buy into Blu-Ray?

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post #15 of 57 Old 02-29-2008, 06:56 AM
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Blinx123 View Post

Yeah. And even then. Who tells you that all the people with a HDTV are going to buy into Blu-Ray?

They won't. The TV penetration is 98% of all households so there are 16% that do not have a DVD player.

And as we know, many people are buying HDTV's for the form factor and not to get HD.
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post #16 of 57 Old 02-29-2008, 07:04 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Lee Stewart View Post

DVD is in over 82% of all USA households. More people have a DVD player than Internet access (78%)

As of April 2007 (10th anniversary) there are over 8 BILLION DVD's in the wild. There are over 80,000 movie titles and a combined title release of over 200,000

For BD to "be more powerful" then the DVD Forum, HDTV penetration would have to go higher than 82%. It is currently sitting at about 35% . . . after 10 years.

IMO - no, the BDA will not replace the DVD Forum. Not enough time. Technology is moving too fast. The next big thing will arrive before BD can ever replace DVD.

i believe that.

we will see in the next couple of years if bd + dvd actually grows or bd + dvd shrinks with bd growing and dvd evaporating.

if the overall market for bd + dvd is shrinking then i guess the people are moving on.
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post #17 of 57 Old 02-29-2008, 07:13 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Lee Stewart View Post

They won't. The TV penetration is 98% of all households so there are 16% that do not have a DVD player.

And as we know, many people are buying HDTV's for the form factor and not to get HD.

as strange as this might be to us on avs some people also don't want hdtv because of the form factor. lots of people have furniture based on the old cube shaped tvs and how the furniture looks is more important to a lot of consumers (a lot of females for example).
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post #18 of 57 Old 02-29-2008, 07:13 AM
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if the overall market for bd + dvd is shrinking then i guess the people are moving on.


of course overall bd + dvd will shrink, Its too damn obvious. Its an outdated way to deliver content. The internet just cuts out the middle man over time. BD and DVD are simply distribution middle men.

In the end we will all download the content we want to watch or hear so WHO CARES about either in the end.

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post #19 of 57 Old 02-29-2008, 07:16 AM
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I don't think it will be as popular as DVD and could and will end up as the same as HD DVD. As soon as HD downloads pick up steam and move into the main stream why would you want a plastic disk with whatever format (DVD, BD,...)???
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post #20 of 57 Old 02-29-2008, 07:21 AM
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Originally Posted by eklinger View Post

I don't think it will be as popular as DVD and could and will end up as the same as HD DVD. As soon as HD downloads pick up steam and move into the main stream why would you want a plastic disk with whatever format (DVD, BD,...)???

some people just like to collect shiny things.
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post #21 of 57 Old 02-29-2008, 07:27 AM
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some people just like to collect shiny things

Yep but in this debate that .005% of the population doesnt matter.

Isnt all these debates about what the majority of people want and use? AVers are generally not normal and they definitely are not the average person

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post #22 of 57 Old 02-29-2008, 07:31 AM
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I think BR will have a VERY tough time killing DVD. I think there simply aren't enough people that even care about HD. My personal experience confirms other's comments that no more than 50% of HDTV owners even bother to get an HD source. Of those that do, many have a tuner connected with an S-video connector - or even worse, a composite cable. People like big flat panels and wide-screen, but most couldn't tell the difference between SD and HD.

I was recently discussing this with a salesman at a high end store. I suggested that probably was not the case with his customers, since they were spending more for the very best. He said that was definitely NOT the case! In some cases where they had installed a high-end system, they found people watching a local SD channel rather than the HD channel. Most people seemed indifferent to the suggestion that it would be better to watch the HD channel.

This indifference to quality picture or sound seems pretty widespread. I guess Warner will just have to quit making DVDs too!

It may even be that DVD's success over VHS was due more to features than PQ. Everyone could appreciate the durability, size, and random access of the DVD - and they didn't even have to rewind! The only real advantage to BR is picture quality - and who cares? Apparently only a few of us!

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post #23 of 57 Old 02-29-2008, 07:39 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by penngray View Post

Yep but in this debate that .005% of the population doesnt matter.

Isnt all these debates about what the majority of people want and use? AVers are generally not normal and they definitely are not the average person

i agree with that. imo bd could be called blu ray laserdisc. it only seems to be wanted by people like me who are into the av hobby. in my experience so far, normal people couldn't care less.
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post #24 of 57 Old 02-29-2008, 07:40 AM
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Im out there daily in the real world, golf tournaments, fund raisers, conferences and so on. The real world doesnt have a clue about HD and doesnt care. I dont have a friend or a family member that cares about it.

Dave, is right PEOPLE DONT CARE AND NEVER WILL!!!

btw, I love too watch it dont get me wrong but when I can not play it through my full house HTPC system without problems its A CRAPPY SOLUTION.

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post #25 of 57 Old 02-29-2008, 07:50 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Richard Paul View Post

Just my preference since in an internet forum poll I like encouraging people to make a choice so if they vote in the poll they vote for the option they consider most likely.


Well just to point this out but it would be illegal to make the standards of an organization binding which is why HP and Thomson could remain members of the Board of Directors in the BDA even when they started supporting HD DVD. As such this situation has been seen in both the BDA and DVD Forum and there are many companies that are members of both. In my opinion it is a good thing that standards aren't binding in an organization since I consider both DVD+R/RW and Blu-ray to be better than the competing standards that were made in the DVD Forum.


This is in complete conflict to belonging to the DVD Forum in the first place.

This is an organazation built on the principles of its members voting for and agreeing to set media standards for the industry so that there is not format wars such as Betamax vs VHS, BR vs HD.

What good is it for there to be an organazation built on member agreement to standards if the same members don't agree to follow those standards and directly compete against anything that doesnt go there way?
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post #26 of 57 Old 02-29-2008, 08:01 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by penngray View Post

of course overall bd + dvd will shrink, Its too damn obvious. Its an outdated way to deliver content.

+1 if the measure of success is market penetration.

DVD came to market at a perfect time. Alternate forms of content delivery were almost non-existent; Cable + Sat penetration was lower & VOD & PPV options were limitted at best. Any discussion of movie downloads seemed rediculous. Video tapes were a horrible format, yet introduced people to playing movies in the home.

Things are so incredibly different now. A more interesting poll might to be speculate what % of houshold penetration BD will after 10 years.
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post #27 of 57 Old 02-29-2008, 11:59 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by user4avsforum View Post

+1 if the measure of success is market penetration.

DVD came to market at a perfect time. Alternate forms of content delivery were almost non-existent; Cable + Sat penetration was lower & VOD & PPV options were limitted at best. Any discussion of movie downloads seemed rediculous. Video tapes were a horrible format, yet introduced people to playing movies in the home.

Things are so incredibly different now. A more interesting poll might to be speculate what % of houshold penetration BD will after 10 years.

Agreed on every point:

BD + DVD < max sales of DVD.
BD < max sales of DVD.

DVD was a perfect storm. It was cheaper than tape, convenient, added features (menus, extras), greatly improved PQ/AQ. Due to low replication cost and low hardware cost is reached massive economies of scale.

This will never happen again. BD is just DVD++. Now I think it will succeed. It will sell billions but it will never be as "big" as DVD was/is. For the record DVD in the future will never be as big as it was.
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post #28 of 57 Old 02-29-2008, 12:07 PM
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I would certainly think the BDA will become more important than the DVD Forum. My thinking is that the DVD Forum's early expectations for DVD were far exceeded. Due to the great success of DVD, the BDA will be looked at more closely to see if they can help push BD to become the replacement to DVD. It won't happen overnight but I think in time BD will become the mainstream format of choice as prices get lower and lower and more people will have friends and family who own BD players and won't want to be left out. I mean the day when Best Buy is advertising a new release Transformers 3 BD for only $15.99 on new release Tuesday, why wouldn't consumers pick it up rather than the DVD. These HDTVs are great with sports and TV programs but they only get put to more good use with the addition of BD.
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post #29 of 57 Old 02-29-2008, 12:10 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by oliverjg View Post

as strange as this might be to us on avs some people also don't want hdtv because of the form factor. lots of people have furniture based on the old cube shaped tvs and how the furniture looks is more important to a lot of consumers (a lot of females for example).

You couldn't be more right. My parents have a 27" JVC tube tv that they have fit snug inside an expensive solid oak entertainment center. They are looking for a tv that will fit inside it.
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post #30 of 57 Old 02-29-2008, 01:29 PM
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I'm pretty sure it'll take more than just BD to kill DVD. Even if BD takes off like a rocket in the next few years (which it very well may), DVD has enormous amounts of production facilities online for both hardware and discs, and it will take more than 10 years to obsolesce them.

As such, no matter how cheap BD production gets, DVD will always be cheaper, and it's going to be very hard to BD to ever get close to DVD's market penetration, let alone surpass it. For that to happen, we'd have to see retailers and studios stop producing DVDs - and that in turn is dependent on future Blu-ray hardware not being compatible with standard DVD (which is technically possible under the spec, but this provision has almost never been used except for perhaps the occasional BD-only burner).

Besides, there's going to be content that just doesn't need the extras that BD brings to the table; and will be for a long, long time.
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