What is next after blu-ray? - AVS Forum
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post #1 of 142 Old 11-19-2008, 12:37 PM - Thread Starter
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post #2 of 142 Old 11-19-2008, 12:42 PM
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I heard about flash memory developed, among others, by Toshiba.
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post #3 of 142 Old 11-19-2008, 12:45 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Tufnelto11 View Post

I have not even bought a blu-ray player yet, and I am already hearing people say that it will not last another 5 years!?

I know DVD still has a stranglehold on the market but I cannot see blu-ray overtaking DVD anytime soon.

Who knows? I would think that BD is the last run at physical media being a movie storage/delivery system. I expect most homes in 10-15 years to simply have their own Mega-Server that will store all of their music, movies, pictures, and anything else they might want. You'll be able to view it all on your TV screen or monitor.

Aslong as the quality is the same, downloads or whatever would be fine by most people. I prefer a physical disc and case myself...

5 years? nah, BD will be around longer than that...but I doubt BD will ever reach the critical mass that DVD did. Too many people just dont care about the video and audio upgrades. Not everyone is a geek like us around here.
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post #4 of 142 Old 11-19-2008, 12:54 PM
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Once North America can reach the bandwidth that somewhere like Japan enjoys (and higher), I would think downloadable HD (superHD, or whatever) media will become the norm.

Storage is really a non-issue price-wise if you look at normal hard drives (SSDs are not there yet, but will be) where you can get drives for pennies per GB, so bandwidth seems to be the great limiter here, (acceptance by the average consumer could be a factor as well, though less so with each passing day). Give it another 10 years and it should be the norm, but until then enjoy your Blu-rays.

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post #5 of 142 Old 11-19-2008, 12:58 PM
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In before the lock!



Quote:
Originally Posted by s2mikey View Post

I prefer a physical disc and case myself...

5 years? nah, BD will be around longer than that...but I doubt BD will ever reach the critical mass that DVD did. Too many people just dont care about the video and audio upgrades. Not everyone is a geek like us around here.

I very much agree with this. Too many people still like to have something in their hand after they've spent money. I would think that this would end up being more of a rent vs. buy issue but with 100% studio support and more push for BD being the HDTV "goes with" item my hopes are high.

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post #6 of 142 Old 11-19-2008, 01:06 PM
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Ummm, is that Van Damme?

Back on topic: I like Blu-ray!
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post #7 of 142 Old 11-19-2008, 01:13 PM
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As long as it is not that wacky hologram crap that CNN was using during the elections, I am okay with just about any tech that is a step up from Blu-Ray and is economical
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post #8 of 142 Old 11-19-2008, 01:28 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by General Kenobi View Post

In before the lock!


That's from Breakin' starring the hot Lucinda Dickey from Ninja III: The Domination ... she was a hottie back in the day.
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post #9 of 142 Old 11-19-2008, 01:38 PM
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hmm

Flash mem
another optical
smaller magentic drive.

5 years in tech is an eternity.

Do NOT let the magic smoke out because it is impossible to put the magic smoke back in!!!!
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post #10 of 142 Old 11-19-2008, 03:11 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Rieper View Post

That's from Breakin' starring the hot Lucinda Dickey from Ninja III: The Domination ... she was a hottie back in the day.

Quote:
Originally Posted by General Kenobi View Post

In before the lock!





I very much agree with this. Too many people still like to have something in their hand after they've spent money. I would think that this would end up being more of a rent vs. buy issue but with 100% studio support and more push for BD being the HDTV "goes with" item my hopes are high.


Holy crap I didn't know that Van Damme was in it. Hope Breakin get's HD'd soon...
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post #11 of 142 Old 11-19-2008, 03:29 PM
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even if blu-ray only has 5 years id say go for it there nearly 1000 bds so another 5 years we might be closer to 10,000. so the media will always be their.
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post #12 of 142 Old 11-19-2008, 03:54 PM
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It's going to be DRMed to hell download.
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post #13 of 142 Old 11-19-2008, 03:55 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Tufnelto11 View Post

I have not even bought a blu-ray player yet, and I am already hearing people say that it will not last another 5 years!?

I know DVD still has a stranglehold on the market but I cannot see blu-ray overtaking DVD anytime soon.

I think it likely that Blu-ray will overtake DVD within 5 years and remain the best selling physical video format for at least a decade after that.
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post #14 of 142 Old 11-19-2008, 03:56 PM
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I don't know.

Film buffs would like deeper grayscale and wider color gamut. Blu-Ray is no better than DVD in this regard.

But it means the studios have to remaster everything again. It may not be economical for them to do so.

-Bill
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post #15 of 142 Old 11-19-2008, 08:30 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by KeithTalent View Post

Once North America can reach the bandwidth that somewhere like Japan enjoys (and higher), I would think downloadable HD (superHD, or whatever) media will become the norm.

Storage is really a non-issue price-wise if you look at normal hard drives (SSDs are not there yet, but will be) where you can get drives for pennies per GB, so bandwidth seems to be the great limiter here, (acceptance by the average consumer could be a factor as well, though less so with each passing day). Give it another 10 years and it should be the norm, but until then enjoy your Blu-rays.

I agree. Our current internet system is not comparable in speed compare to
some Asian and European countries. I just got into BD and so far I love it.
I like Audio capability of BD just as much as Video quality. I wonder about
audio quality and options on downloading. After BD, I am no longer satisfied
with plain Dolby Digital 5.1.

What is scary is most people accept MP3 as a quality Audio! I know some
people say MP3 can sound decent, but in most situations they are not
superb quality to me. I love DTS-MA and Dolby TrueHD, but if downloading
won't provide them, that would bother me. However, general public may
not care.

Sometimes, new technology isn't necessarily a better technology.
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post #16 of 142 Old 11-19-2008, 09:36 PM
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When BD finally dies off in 20 years, we'll just switch to cutting edge download technology that promises "up to" 10mbps bandwith streaming in "almost" real time.

It isn't the size of the disk that counts, but how you use it.

Panasonic 46pz85u

4K cinema at 60mbps, coming soon to a kiosk near you.
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post #17 of 142 Old 11-20-2008, 07:18 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Figgie View Post

5 years in tech is an eternity.

And how long has 720p/1080i HD technology been around ?

How long has it been since HDTV first hit the consumer market ?

How long did it take CD to become adopted ?


Consumer products usually can't upgrade at the pace of technologies progression. Once a standard has penetrated the consumer market and the cost of these products are substancial, frequent upgrades do not occur.


1080p LCD & Plasma will be around for a long while even though other high resolution technogoly is around the corner.

If/when blu-ray achieves mass adoption, it's going to stick around for quite a while.

2014
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post #18 of 142 Old 11-20-2008, 07:04 PM
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Easy.

4k Technology will take over and we'll all upgrade our systems once again despite the fact that 4k isn't all that much of a jump from 2k at normal viewing distances. The "allure" of 4k will be too much to pass up.
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post #19 of 142 Old 11-21-2008, 06:25 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by hmurchison View Post

Easy.

4k Technology will take over and we'll all upgrade our systems once again despite the fact that 4k isn't all that much of a jump from 2k at normal viewing distances. The "allure" of 4k will be too much to pass up.

4k + 3D DLP FP = WOW!
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post #20 of 142 Old 11-21-2008, 07:08 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Everdog View Post

4k + 3D DLP FP = WOW!

Exactly. 4k = 2 of the 1080p images presented in 3D. You need a display technology capable of 240 Hz and DLP is it.
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post #21 of 142 Old 11-21-2008, 07:25 AM
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For most cases, deeper grayscale and a wider color gamut would be a bigger improvement than increased resolution.

-Bill
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post #22 of 142 Old 11-21-2008, 08:08 AM
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I am sure it will be protein disks or those holo disks. Of course, we may have another format war.

Quad High Definition Blu Ray versus Protein Disks. Of course, people will say that we need to go with bluray because it is backwards compatible and costs less while those on the Protein side will say it is the format of the future and there is no sense putting a next generation video on an od generation medium. And then there will be studio buyouts until finally Taco Bell decides the next format war through back hand dealing. And in the end, all companies will be Taco Bell. Be well John Spartan.

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post #23 of 142 Old 11-21-2008, 08:16 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by 42Plasmaman View Post

And how long has 720p/1080i HD technology been around ?

How long has it been since HDTV first hit the consumer market ?

How long did it take CD to become adopted ?


Consumer products usually can't upgrade at the pace of technologies progression. Once a standard has penetrated the consumer market and the cost of these products are substancial, frequent upgrades do not occur.


1080p LCD & Plasma will be around for a long while even though other high resolution technogoly is around the corner.

If/when blu-ray achieves mass adoption, it's going to stick around for quite a while.


720/1080?

Since at least the early 80's.

VESA/VGA has had custom resolutions since that time. And if yiu are talking about the progressive scanning tech. That been around since earlier in vector based graphics computers. CRT since at least the 14" era could do 720p in a 4x3 format.

Again I am not talking about consumer adoption as comsumer when it comes to the common household are slow to adopt tech. Enterprises are usually the first to start adopting new tech in a grand scale (depending on project size and budget). Where do you think those SSD hard drives are going to? Hell here we just finished purchasing 100 SSD based HDD for a "test phase" that we are looking into. If everything goes well, At least 10,000 more will be coming here.

Do NOT let the magic smoke out because it is impossible to put the magic smoke back in!!!!
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post #24 of 142 Old 11-21-2008, 09:41 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by MRMOTA View Post

Holy crap I didn't know that Van Damme was in it. Hope Breakin get's HD'd soon...


Wow, just wow. I remember JCvD being a pretty poor dancer in one of his movies (Kickboxer, maybe?) . . . but that clip is almost too bad to be believed. I gotta' find that DVD. That is pure comedic GOLD, GOLD I tell you!
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post #25 of 142 Old 11-21-2008, 10:21 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Tufnelto11 View Post

I have not even bought a blu-ray player yet, and I am already hearing people say that it will not last another 5 years!?

I know DVD still has a stranglehold on the market but I cannot see blu-ray overtaking DVD anytime soon.


Please provide a link to any credible source saying that BD will not last 5 years.

Then go read the PDF linked to over here.


http://www.avsforum.com/avs-vb/showthread.php?t=1086332
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post #26 of 142 Old 11-21-2008, 10:43 AM
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Most likely it will be little square chips like spock used in Star Trek.
Optical Media will die with Blue Ray, mark my words.

Heck, I like enjoy downloading albums and then buying the Vinyl for the artwork and packaging NOW. No need for stupid jewel cases and CD's.
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post #27 of 142 Old 11-21-2008, 10:54 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by 42Plasmaman View Post

And how long has 720p/1080i HD technology been around ?

How long has it been since HDTV first hit the consumer market ?

How long did it take CD to become adopted ?


Consumer products usually can't upgrade at the pace of technologies progression. Once a standard has penetrated the consumer market and the cost of these products are substancial, frequent upgrades do not occur.


1080p LCD & Plasma will be around for a long while even though other high resolution technogoly is around the corner.

If/when blu-ray achieves mass adoption, it's going to stick around for quite a while.


I bought my first 1080i ATSC TV in January of 2002. It still works well, however it is not perfect. It is not the video quality that is the problem with it, it is the convenience and usability factors, slow channel changing, no digital inputs, limited component inputs, slightly audible fan, first generation tuner that does a poor job of pulling in weak signals, etc.

On the other hand my most recent 1080p purchase from earlier this year does not have these same problems. Certainly I shopped for this display based on the video quality. However the other convenience and usability factors were also very important. In fact between my top 3 choices it was price and features that tipped the scale. The difference in video between the top three was insignificant.
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post #28 of 142 Old 11-21-2008, 11:20 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by homerx View Post

even if blu-ray only has 5 years id say go for it there nearly 1000 bds so another 5 years we might be closer to 10,000. so the media will always be their.

I really really hope we have more than 10,000 blu-ray titles in 5 years. DVD had half that amount by the end of 1999.

For reference sake, DVD has a little over 93k titles on sale right now 11.5 years after inception.
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post #29 of 142 Old 11-21-2008, 12:13 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by foghorn2 View Post

Most likely it will be little square chips like spock used in Star Trek.
Optical Media will die with Blue Ray, mark my words.

Heck, I like enjoy downloading albums and then buying the Vinyl for the artwork and packaging NOW. No need for stupid jewel cases and CD's.

Everything dies eventually. Technology moves forward.
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post #30 of 142 Old 11-21-2008, 12:53 PM
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The elimination of mechanical hardware sourced media is the key.

Bluray and cd players and the cabling are expensive and complicated and they wear out. Once these players are broken you throw them out. The discs are also a limiting factor. They are expensive and involve significant manufacturing processes.

Selling or renting HD media on small portable computer friendly drives are the answer. USB thumb drives and SD Flash cards are the answer and all we need is an integrated reader. The new usb 3.0 spec will be the standard
IMO.

The only issue is the cost of this memory which by next year will be dramatically reduced.

Paul
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