Originally Posted by Everdog
I thin your logic is flawed...
Given your response after that I'd take it as a compliment.
First VHS cost much more (and takes a lot longer) to produce than DVD (so studios wanted to get away from it), while BD cost more than DVD.
Um, not when DVD first came out it didn't. You can't compare DVD 6 years after adoption to BD now, that's comparing apples to space shuttles.
Also, DVDs are lighter and take up less space, therefore they are cheaper to ship.
Technically BD cases are smaller and therefore marginally cheaper to ship en masse as well. Regardless, the cost difference in both cases is insignificant compared to other costs and played no significant role.
Second, you could record/copy with VHS and studios hated that which is another reason they wanted to transition.
Um...have you been to Dell or a Fry's lately? DVD burner's are very common and frequently used to back up DVDs. For movie producers the problem is probably worse with DVD than it was for VHS, as copying VHS tapes required either a special dubbing deck with two VHS slots to record from one tape to another, or else two DVD players in a row, which made significantly degraded copies. DVD ripping is common and produces a copy with no degradation. Presumably that's why several studios invested a lot of money into enhanced copyright protection.
Don't get me wrong, I'm not a fan of such schemes, but you're flat wrong if you think VHS copying of movies was more of a problem then DVDs are (even if you don't burn new copies, people make digital copies of their DVDs and then use them on computers, iPods, etc too!).
Third, it will still be a few years before BD hits 35-40% of the market and by then BD prices will have dropped to near the same price as DVD, so the profits margins will be close to same... and DVD will still be selling 2x BD.
I doubt your numbers. First of all, DVD sales are dropping, and are only being propped up as high as they are by continuing to slash margins (in essence, aside from new releases they are selling things to be only because they prices are so low that consumers figure it's worth a couple of bucks). The rate at which DVD margins are dissapearing mean BD revenue will catch DVD sooner rather than later. Given the 15%+ already seen, I'd expect to see 25-30% after next holiday season, maybe higher if falling HDTV prices increase consumer penetration faster.
There is no way BD movie prices will fall as fast as you imply (e.g. so fast they will be priced the same as DVDs in a couple years). The main factor inhibiting growth in BD is having enough HDTVs installed (primary consumer adoption) not media prices, while the main factor inhibiting DVD sales is market saturation (hence reduced prices are the only way to go). Claiming otherwise demonstrates your lack of a grasp on the market forces involved.
Fourth, in 2 years virtually every TV and disc player will support streaming
Um, how about "in 2 years virtually every high end TV and disc player ON SALE will support streaming". People who bought TVs last year are not going to run out and buy new ones in two years just because they let you watch youtube videos.
Also, in your haste to repeat anti-BD talking points, you miss an obvious fact; the market is already fragmented, and has been throughout most of DVDs life cycle as well. Movies on Demand aren't a new thing that just showed up last year. The fact that hotels, satellite, DVRs, etc have been out for most of the last decade didn't meant that DVD wasn't the industries bread and butter for packaged media. And there aren't going to be DVD players for sale in two years with streaming ability, they will be Blu-ray players. This added convenience will be one more reason why late adopters will switch to Blu-ray, not something that will hinder its adoption. But if you think video on demand will replace packaged media in the next few years, you're engaging in wishful speculation.
I have said all along...
And how has your track record been so far?
... in a couple years we will see a good mix of marketshare like this (just a guess):
BD - 25%
Those numbers are meaningless without more context. Are they unit or revenue? What is the current marketshare of VoD applications (you realize that "streaming" is just a new form of delivery for VoD, right?). Do you think streaming VoD is likely to cannibalize disk sales (why more than VoD already has?), erode already existing VoD sales (e.g. may no real impact on disk sales) or simply merge with current VoD choices from a consumers point of view (e.g. have satellite companies stream more choices right to the TV).
You are just repeating banal platitudes that give specious reasons why the same market forces that have worked for the last 20 years are suddenly going to change, handing you personal revenge by stopping BD from becoming the dominant packaged media format.