AVS Forum Addicted Member
Join Date: Dec 1999
Location: Stop making curved screens
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I want to take issue with a few bits of nonsense here.
First, without anything resembling a production-ready drive available for HD-DVD, it's ludicrous to call the players cheaper than for BluRay. Dell and HP can be counted on to buy tens of millions of drives a year for PCs alone. Whatever edge HD-DVD drives / players have now -- and there isn't any in cost that is meaningful even if one exists -- would be swamped beyond comprehension by the two largest PC makers in the world (who will likely lead the next 5 to make an obvious choice) putting economies of scale off the map for BluRay.
Second, uh Sony, the company that invented modern consumer electronics. They have had well-documented failures to produce standards. That said, they and Philips devised CD -- far and away the most successful digital format devised. They won the videogame wars -- as noted above -- from their entry at least until today. They devised what was easily the most successful camcorder format (Hi8, I believe it was called).
With respect to BluRay, they got everyone in CE who matters to join up with them: Matsu****a, Samsung, Hitachi, LG, Pioneer, Mitsubishi, Philips, Sharp, Thomson... That's the largest companies in Japan (save one), the two Korean giants, the two European giants to join forces with them.
Calling this a Sony format is disingenuous at best and dumb-as-a-rock stupid at worst.
This doesn't even mention getting the two largest PC companies -- by far -- on board.
Essentially the only reason Toshiba went off and did HD-DVD was a decade of bitterness that Warner -- and others, but especially Warner -- forced Toshiba to compromise over DVD. Toshiba was -- back then -- trying to dominate the royalty stream and was ready to segment the market in two. That decision would've killed DVD. Warner, et al. brought them to the table and made them cut a deal that was significantly less profitable to Toshiba.
A decade plus later, they are hell bent on ensuring it doesn't happen again. But this time Toshiba has no cards to get a piece of the action. Instead of trying to influence BluRay from within, they decided to get an insignificant tech company in NEC (sure they make and brand a of stuff, but they lead in almost no category) to try to create a standards war.
They enlisted the DVD Forum and are able to stay in the game as a result. The DVD Forum has no actual ability to influence anyone in particular, but no matter. They sucked up to Microsoft to make it seem like OS-level support from an OS that won't ship until late 2006 or later is somehow important to a format that hasn't yet even had a PC-based data spec fully baked.
My $1,000 is on the table. And I'll offer an additional $500 for anyone who'll take this bet: HD-DVD will never reach 20% of the combined HD-DVD / BluRay market if both formats reach the market. Note, if BluRay never makes it you win the bet. If HD-DVD never ships, I win the bet.
I mean this is really silly.
The anti-BluRay argument now boils down to this:
* "I hate Sony"
* I want VC9 because H.264 is not good enough (insert insignificant reason here)
The comments about which studios will choose which codec are clearly format independent now that H.264 -- at minimum -- has been included in BluRay. In other words, Sony Pictures could choose MPEG-2 for HD-DVD and BluRay or H.264 for both.
While Palladin is doubtless correct that this battle has motivated the BluRay group to adopt additional codecs and compete more aggressively, with that achieved all here should pull for one and only format to reach the market with studio backing. Anything else is chaos and dramatically slowed adoption / higher pricecs.
Persuade me otherwise, in the event I have overlooked something.
There's a saying about "everything in moderation". If only it was applied to well, you know...