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post #91 of 18952 Old 06-15-2004, 07:54 AM
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Forum approves Apple music format for DVD Audio
Actually Dolby controls licensing of AAC. Apple is just a licensee. Apple does not own compression technology for audio or video. They do have a really nice container. (ie QuickTime) QT is better than both AVI and ASF, IMO.

AAC is for the compressed audio zone. 2-channel 192 kbps is what will be stored in there. It was designed for portable playback of DVD-A discs. It extends battery life in a portable because it does not have to spin as much.
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post #92 of 18952 Old 06-15-2004, 07:57 AM
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They could always work from the premise that they lose on the hardware and make money on the software. This is the case they've made before and as Microsoft does with the X-Box. But, at what price point can they expect sales to come up with a product that software-profits>hardware-losses? If Sony makes $10/title for a BL movie then that's a lot of BL disks they'll have to sell to recoup the potential hardware losses.

When will D* stop pushing HD-Lite while charging us for full HD? Digital input on a CRT is a reality, not a possibility.
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post #93 of 18952 Old 06-15-2004, 08:05 AM
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You're underestimating the capabilities of a geek. I give it a week after release tops.
Oh no I'm not. Geeks are working for the DVD folks too, you know :)

People have learned a lot since the days of CD (with no CSS) and DVD (with weak DVD). No, they really haven't learned a whole lot new about relevant cryptography; rather, they have learned alot about how formidable the hacker community is, and how strong an encryption method they'll need to keep them at bay. Also: remember that DVD was not cracked by brute force but by dumb luck and negligence on the part of a DVD software company. This is bad news for people who are hoping to make HD-DVDs PC compatible---but if it does happen, you can bet there will be considerable safeguards.

Seriously: find me someone who has cracked SACD, or the MLP-encoded tracks on DVD-Audio (NOT the DVD-Video compatible tracks, the lossless PCM tracks), and you may have something. Short of that, I remain confident.

Michael
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post #94 of 18952 Old 06-15-2004, 08:09 AM - Thread Starter
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Originally posted by TheFerret
If Sony makes $10/title for a BL movie then that's a lot of BL disks they'll have to sell to recoup the potential hardware losses.
BL?? Blue-'Lay'?? Brue-'Lay'?? I thought you were from the South, not the Far-East. Uh-oh, did I just commit a 'Ferret'? :D

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post #95 of 18952 Old 06-15-2004, 08:14 AM
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They could always work from the premise that they lose on the hardware and make money on the software. This is the case they've made before and as Microsoft does with the X-Box.
Are you suggesting that they didn't make the case? Now, I don't think Microsoft has profited yet---but Sony? You betcha.
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But, at what price point can they expect sales to come up with a product that software-profits>hardware-losses?
I still predict that they'll get BR manufacturing costs down by the time the PS3 is out, so that they're not losing to much to price the unit reasonably.
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If Sony makes $10/title for a BL movie then that's a lot of BL disks they'll have to sell to recoup the potential hardware losses.
Yeah, maybe so. How many DVDs do you own? Or maybe, more relevant: how many PS2 games do the early PS2 owners (the ones for whom Sony lost money on the console) own?

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post #96 of 18952 Old 06-15-2004, 08:30 AM
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Originally posted by Michael Grant
Oh no I'm not. Geeks are working for the DVD folks too, you know :)

People have learned a lot since the days of CD (with no CSS) and DVD (with weak DVD). No, they really haven't learned a whole lot new about relevant cryptography; rather, they have learned alot about how formidable the hacker community is, and how strong an encryption method they'll need to keep them at bay. Also: remember that DVD was not cracked by brute force but by dumb luck and negligence on the part of a DVD software company. This is bad news for people who are hoping to make HD-DVDs PC compatible---but if it does happen, you can bet there will be considerable safeguards.

Seriously: find me someone who has cracked SACD, or the MLP-encoded tracks on DVD-Audio (NOT the DVD-Video compatible tracks, the lossless PCM tracks), and you may have something. Short of that, I remain confident.
I'd say the main reason the newer stuff hasn't been cracked (or at least those cracks being made available) is the legal ramifications of the DCMA and its international equivalents. The teenager who found the flaw in one DVD player company's implementation was tried twice for the offense, admittedly winning both times but still most people want to avoid going to court and possibly getting a long prison sentence.
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post #97 of 18952 Old 06-15-2004, 08:43 AM
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Sony is still losing money on the PS2 console itself, I would imagine. While costs might have come down, its price has halved.

PSX shows what happens when you price a console at closer to its true cost I guess.

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Not for $ony. The profit margins at that point have got to be razor thin. They lost this battle to mfrs in China with the current DVD format and they don't want that to happen this time around.
They would be that thin now, but not when the costs come down. Most people are not going to spend $800 or even $500 for an HD DVD. Maybe $300. But all of that is largely moot, it's software sales that will be the profit center.

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post #98 of 18952 Old 06-15-2004, 09:22 AM
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Originally posted by TheFerret
Sony has not found the means to grow money on trees, and the dollar loss per unit to deploy a PS3+BL in numbers to justify them opening their movie lockers to succeed in a similar DVD business manner just seems far fetched.
I think both of you are right, but are casting the issue in a manner that misses the point. Sony may include Blu-Ray in its upcoming console because its games will need the space for competitive reasons completely ancillary to our little universe. Whether they go with HD-DVD or BR for the drive is then a function of a business decision. And I would be surprised if it went the HD-DVD route. Fifty+ million units is an awful lot of volume over which to spread manufacturing costs (and experience curves).

Given that Microsoft has probably learned its lesson on tying its costs in to proprietary versions of off-the-shelf hardware, I would expect Sony to be looking to eke out every bit of performance advantage it can its next generation. After all, if rumors are to be believed, the next Xbox is a make-or-break product for the company.

Later,
Bill
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post #99 of 18952 Old 06-15-2004, 09:39 AM
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I don't doubt Sony will have to do something. I can easily see Microsoft implementing VC-9 for video graphics on their next generation gaming platform. This would also make an easy means with current DVD-ROM capacity and afford them the ability to resell WM9 titles of prerecorded content. Unless Sony adopts VC-9 or another performing codec for the PS3 then they'll have to use BL to increase capacity while continuing to use MPEG2.

When will D* stop pushing HD-Lite while charging us for full HD? Digital input on a CRT is a reality, not a possibility.
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post #100 of 18952 Old 06-15-2004, 09:46 AM
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Comparing Microsoft to Sony in this context doesn't take you very far. Sony has proven they can make money in this business (video games); Microsoft has not. Any "lessons" Microsoft has supposedly learned, Sony probably already knew.

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post #101 of 18952 Old 06-15-2004, 09:52 AM
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If you look at the last two PS launches and other video game systems, none have hit the street with a price higher than $399. If Sony was to include Blue-Ray in the PS3, you would not be able to get one at the price that typical games pay for these systems. Sony would not alienate their console customers by adding BR to the PS3. I can guarantee you that the majority of the gamers who have a PS2 and are waiting for a PS3 don't even know what Blue-Ray is. And given the choice between not having the BR drive ($399) and having one ($700 & up), the majority probably would opt for the former b/c of the price to play a video game.

When Little Joey walks in the store with his mother, they will have the choice of choosing from 3 next gen video game systems. Little Joey's mom will look at the price of each and will then come to a conclusion about which to get. Little Joey's mom will not care that the PS3 has a BR drive which would explain why it's higher in price than the other two systems. She will walk past it and go to X-box 2 and the next gen Nintendo system and get one of those for her son. That is what Sony is worried about or should be worried about if they are thinking about adding BR to the PS3.


Sony knows that the price of a BR drive in an earlier PS3 model would all but make the console too pricey for the majority of gamers and they would shy away from the system and go towards the X-Box 2, which I have read on some gaming sites will launch months before the PS3, which is due in early 2006.
First of all, Sony japan has directly implied the inclusion of a BR-ROM drive in the PlayStation 3:

http://www.cdfreaks.com/news2.php?ID=9446

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According to a report by Asahi PC magazine, Sony may be considering using Blu-ray Disc (BD-ROM) technology in the PlayStation 3. The news comes from an interview that the magazine conducted with Kiyoshi Nishitani, Sony's management director in charge of Blu-ray Disc development and next-generation home electronics. In his interview about the future business strategies for Blu-ray Discs, Nishitani commented, "We'd like to establish a ground by adopting read-only BD-ROMs for a home video game console."


Nishitani's statement does not mention any concrete plans, and he also does not identify any specific console by name. However, Sony is unlikely to allow its division to work on a rival company's console or create a new peripheral for the PlayStation 2 or PSP just to read a Blu-ray Disc. The adoption of Blu-ray Discs by the PS3 would also help spread use of the format, similar to how the PS2 did with DVDs.
Is it an announcement?

No!

The implications are clear (to me) however *and* Kiyoshi Nishitani mentioned Blu-ray ROM (not BR-R or BR-RW) specifically by name...

Surely a read-only Blu-ray drive for a console due in 2006 (late 2006 in the US) wont be anywhere near as expensive as the BR recorders we see now??

I would think this would be obvious....

Secondly, if you do a little digging on the 'net, you will find a Sony/IBM patent on the CELL architecture, which is going to be used in PS3....

The PS3 CPU and GPU (the so-called BroadBand Engine and Visualizer) have MASSIVE math calculating abilities....around a teraflop for the BroadBand Engine and 512 Gigaflops for the Visualizer....PS3 will be a hungry beast by all accounts

Moreover....

Sony Computer Entertainment (note SCE is the videogame division of Sony) has licenced, from Rambus, the Yellowstone XRDRAM memory interface (100Gb per/sec) and the Redwood paralell bus interface (60Gb per/sec)......it is clear to me that PS3 will probably *REQUIRE* a multiple speed BR-ROM drive (a 4X drive would yield 144 Mb/sec data rates) unless you plan on sitting through 5 min. loading times in your DVD ROM PS3 games!!!

No, I think that only through the intergration of fast RAM (Rambus XRDRAM) a fast drive (4X BR-ROM) along with other bandwidth speed saving tricks ( Procedural Texture and Modeling Synthesis) will game makers be able to harness a monster as data hungry as PlayStation 3 because DVD ROM is NOT going to do it, thats for sure...

P.S. Nonuyuki Idei , the Chairman of Sony Japan confirmed in a recent shareholder meeting in Japan that PS3 *will* include the CELL archetecture.....he also stated the game console is due to ship first in Japan, March 2006....plenty of time for Sony get the price of a read-only Blu-ray drive down, IMO
http://gamesradar.msn.co.uk/news/def...sectionid=1585

The writing is on the wall....whether or not you care to read it is up to you:)
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post #102 of 18952 Old 06-15-2004, 10:06 AM
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Michael, I agree with completely. But, many companies in many industries came into their marketplace in the same manner Microsoft may be coming into this one. There are successes and failures. I just think Microsoft may have the means for a long-term commitment where some new up-start companies had all of their eggs in their one basket.

Now, let's imagine for a moment. You are letting your imagination rome free, right?

When will D* stop pushing HD-Lite while charging us for full HD? Digital input on a CRT is a reality, not a possibility.
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post #103 of 18952 Old 06-15-2004, 10:19 AM
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Quote:
Originally posted by Michael Grant
Oh no I'm not. Geeks are working for the DVD folks too, you know :)

People have learned a lot since the days of CD (with no CSS) and DVD (with weak DVD). No, they really haven't learned a whole lot new about relevant cryptography; rather, they have learned alot about how formidable the hacker community is, and how strong an encryption method they'll need to keep them at bay. Also: remember that DVD was not cracked by brute force but by dumb luck and negligence on the part of a DVD software company. This is bad news for people who are hoping to make HD-DVDs PC compatible---but if it does happen, you can bet there will be considerable safeguards.

Seriously: find me someone who has cracked SACD, or the MLP-encoded tracks on DVD-Audio (NOT the DVD-Video compatible tracks, the lossless PCM tracks), and you may have something. Short of that, I remain confident.
I'm sure you're right about geeks working for the studios too. That's a good point so maybe it the code won't be broken in a week but it won't take anywhere near the 10 years I quoted above. As for SACD & DVD-A, there really isn't much of a market for those formats yet so why would anyone bother cracking their encryption. If someone has we haven't heard of it yet because they're not making boots of them. The market's way too little to make it worthwhile.
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post #104 of 18952 Old 06-15-2004, 10:51 AM
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What is the optimized bitrate(s) for VC-9 for 1920x1080p @ 24fps and 30fps? Is there a way in the future to optimize for 10 or 12 bit color depth with 4:4:4 component ratios at those same resolutions given a higher bitrate?

If it's scalable then I would be all for VC-9.

However, I'm worried that even though a dual layered HD-DVD could hold a decent sized movie at 1920x1080p 24fps at about 19 Megabits/sec (for excellent quality with no perceived artifacts or banding) and even include one 7.1 high rez lossless audio track (at least at 24/96 PCM quality, with a backup DD or DTS track) M.S. is pushing 8 Megabits/sec VC-9 so much that video quality will not improve on real HD-DVD media and we may get compromised performance in both audio and video.

Dan

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post #105 of 18952 Old 06-15-2004, 10:55 AM
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Well 720p, I'll be glad to wager a case of California beer against a case of Milwaukee beer on this one :) And hey, let's throw in an HD-DVD of choice while we're at it :) I'm not confident enough in my belief to wager much more than that.

Michael
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post #106 of 18952 Old 06-15-2004, 01:05 PM
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I tend to agree with Michael that the copy protection will be sufficiently robust to make it very hard to crack. If not 10 years, almost certainly 5...

And I tend to fear this means that computer use is far in the future.

But that said, I am totally unclear on this notion that dueling standards is a good thing. The evidence is that it's terrible for adoption.

While it may ultimately result in a marketplace for technological superiority (e.g. CDMA is more spectrally efficient than GSM), it tends to result in a marketplace that is much smaller than it otherwise would be. And in this case, the smaller market is likely to mean less studio interest, less desire to release titles on prerecorded discs, etc.

The overwhelming best options for consumers is a single format. And while I agree that optimally that format would allow for advanced codecs beyond MPEG-2, the fact is you can either sit around waiting longer for titles, or hope that one emerges as a clear winner.

The DVD Forum is going to be putting out exactly zero titles. Its members might put out titles, but the forum is irrelevant. It seems to me that right now we haver a very bad situations vis a vis hardware support on one side and software support split over the two (with disc manufacturer support on the side that hardware support isn't).

I would guess that it's well into 2006 before there are 500 titles out on both formats combined. If there were one format, it'd have 500 titles out within 90 days of launch.

Ugh!

Mark

There is no difference in HDMI cables. If you can see the picture without visible dropouts or sparklies, the cable is working at 100%. No other cable will display a better version of that picture. You're simply wrong if you think there is a better digital cable than one that is already working.
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post #107 of 18952 Old 06-15-2004, 01:19 PM
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Quote:
Originally posted by Dan Hitchman
What is the optimized bitrate(s) for VC-9 for 1920x1080p @ 24fps and 30fps?
I am sure Jerome (jsaglia) or Stacey (sspears) will know the exact range but my guess is 10-13 before the law of diminishing returns kicks in.
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post #108 of 18952 Old 06-15-2004, 03:12 PM
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rogo, its not enough for the encryption to be sufficiently difficult to crack. Studios are paranoid. You must go not just the extra yard but another 100 yards to make them happy. BTW, how about seom optical-based D-theater?

When will D* stop pushing HD-Lite while charging us for full HD? Digital input on a CRT is a reality, not a possibility.
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post #109 of 18952 Old 06-15-2004, 05:15 PM
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M.S. is pushing 8 Megabits/sec VC-9 so much that video quality will not improve on real HD-DVD media and we may get compromised performance in both audio and video.
That is not true.
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post #110 of 18952 Old 06-15-2004, 05:18 PM
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So Stacey what's the magic spot for VC-9 at 1080p?
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post #111 of 18952 Old 06-15-2004, 05:26 PM
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TF- the studios are paranoid for a reason. People take their Handycams into theaters and the next day, there are professionally pressed DVDs being sold by street vendors. I think that they are a bit off-base with the thrust of their paranoia, but it is reasonably well-founded.

That being said, if anybody uses a publicly available codec, then my guess is that it is cracked within a year of release of the encrypted media. While DSS was beaten largely due to carelessness, the tools for (de)cryptography have gotten much better. It would be easy to believe that some enterprising 19 year old CompSci student hacks out a distributed computing client that gets a bunch of folks crunching keys. It would be perfectly legal (in most countries), and there would be thousands of computer users who would sign up to do it. After all, an all-nighter in Helsinki or Oslo is a really long time...

Later,
Bill
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post #112 of 18952 Old 06-15-2004, 05:48 PM
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cmont:

I seem to recall the figure 15-20Mbits/second for VC-9 before the law of diminishing returns kicks in.

Cheers,

Contributing Editor & Surround Music Reviewer Widescreen Review
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post #113 of 18952 Old 06-15-2004, 06:01 PM
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That being said, if anybody uses a publicly available codec, then my guess is that it is cracked within a year of release of the encrypted media.
A bit of terminology mixup here, or at least to avoid confusing others: the content scrambling system is not a "codec" in the same sense that MPEG2, VC9, and so forth are. It might be more accurate to call it an encryption system.
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While DSS was beaten largely due to carelessness, the tools for (de)cryptography have gotten much better.
Actually, no, they have not, at least not in a key mathematical sense. To this day, nobody knows how to crack most public key encryption systems without using basic brute force methods---trying every possible key until one works.
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It would be easy to believe that some enterprising 19 year old CompSci student hacks out a distributed computing client that gets a bunch of folks crunching keys.
Now, it is true that thanks to faster computers and distributed systems, you can run a brute force attack far, far faster than you used to. But the computation time required to crack a code using brute force grows exponentially fast with the length of the key employed, and easily outstrips the rise in computer power.

It would, in theory, be possible for the DVD Forum to select an encryption system that would take far, far too long to break than even the most optimistic advances in computer speed in the next 10 years would allow. Not that they will choose an absurdly long key length, but they certainly can.

I don't believe that it is likely that HD-DVD will ever be cracked by "breaking" the encryption---because by the time it will be feasible (using quantum computation perhaps), nobody will care. Instead, I believe that if it ever happens, it will be because someone managed to recover a key through 1) outright theft of trade secrets, or 2) exploiting the carelessness of a software or hardware implementation, as happened with DVD.

But I'll say again, I'm willing to wager no more than a case of beer and a couple of HD-DVDs to back up my claims :)

Michael
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post #114 of 18952 Old 06-15-2004, 06:44 PM
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Quote:
Originally posted by Michael Grant
[b]A bit of terminology mixup here, or at least to avoid confusing others: the content scrambling system is not a "codec" in the same sense that MPEG2, VC9, and so forth are. It might be more accurate to call it an encryption system.
Michael - I think we are on the same page. For a publicly available codec, and where the source material is readily available, then breaking the encryption is a relatively straight-forward, if labor-intensive, process (hence the reference to Prime95, or HD-DVD2005...).

For those unfamiliar with the issue, one of the critical aspects of encrypting material is for the encryption to be a part of the encoding process. Where there are two separate steps (e.g. a "digital watermark"), then the job of defeating the encryption is much, much easier. It is still not easy, but those techniques have gotten much better with the simple introduction of distributed clients.

Later,
Bill
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post #115 of 18952 Old 06-15-2004, 07:31 PM
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I see your point, but let's put it into perspective. distributed.net, one of the more popular distributed client sites, participates in RSA's RC5 cracking challenges. In July 2002, they cracked RC5-64, which uses a 64-bit key. It took 331,252 people, five years, and tests of 15,769,938,165,961,326,592 keys to get the job done.

Now, certainly, it wouldn't take them that long now, because computers are faster. So that's fine, let's say it would have taken them 1 year instead of 5 years. Indeed, this is how they characterized their cracking speed at their fastest clip:
Quote:
at our peak rate we could expect to exhaust the keyspace in 790 days. Our peak rate of 270,147,024 kkeys/sec is equivalent to 32,504 800MHz Apple PowerBook G4 laptops or 45,998 2GHz AMD Athlon XP machines or (to use some rc5-56 numbers) nearly a half million Pentium Pro 200s.
The next challenge, RC5-72, will require 256 times more work to perform. So even if they could have cracked RC-64 in 1 year, that would require 256 years on the same computer hardware. Factoring in hardware improvements over time, maybe it would take only 50 years. Getting 10 times as many people to participate---3 millon people---it would take only, say, 10 years. (It's not a strict factor of 10 reduction, because over the shorter time span you get less of a benefit from the faster computers.)

OK, so now we're down to my 10 year prediction. Only why should the DVD Forum take chances? Suppose they use an encryption system with the strength of, say, RC5-128, a 128-bit key. Then it will take 20 billion billion times the effort to crack it as it took to crack 64-bit RC5. Even if everyone on the planet participated, it would never happen in our lifetimes, short of a major breakthrough in quantum computation. Heck, even RC5-96 would take almost 5 billion times the effort that RC5-64 did. Again, not in our lifetimes.

Again, I can't say that HD-DVD will use such strong encryption. But I think it's really a bit deceiving to claim that we're getting better at cracking codes. All we're doing is forcing people to use longer codes. By choosing key lengths liberally, you really can protect against even the best efforts of the Slashdot crowd.

Michael
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post #116 of 18952 Old 06-15-2004, 08:30 PM
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Bill (Ursa), I do recognize where their fear comes from, but paranoia is an unstable behavior. I know, I work for paranoia.

When will D* stop pushing HD-Lite while charging us for full HD? Digital input on a CRT is a reality, not a possibility.
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post #117 of 18952 Old 06-16-2004, 06:21 AM - Thread Starter
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In case anyone is interested, Steve Jobs has now rather obviously and ironically weighed in on the Hi-def DVD encryption and piracy issue.

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post #118 of 18952 Old 06-16-2004, 06:28 AM
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Michael:

Woo Hoo! Someone else that "gets" crypto-systems :D

I wonder if they'll use Blowfish? It's royalty-free, so it could be incorporated into the product :) Key lengths go out to about 448 chars if memory serves me correctly.

Cheers,

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post #119 of 18952 Old 06-16-2004, 06:45 AM
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I cannot read that, Palladin, as it would be like reading something from a California politician while on the take.

When will D* stop pushing HD-Lite while charging us for full HD? Digital input on a CRT is a reality, not a possibility.
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post #120 of 18952 Old 06-16-2004, 10:50 AM
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Quote:
Originally posted by Palladin
In case anyone is interested, Steve Jobs has now rather obviously and ironically weighed in on the Hi-def DVD encryption and piracy issue.

Finally, someone is talking about commercial piracy.
I just don¡¯t see how encryption can prevent that.
For example, a legal HD-DVD manufacture gets the master tape/disc for movie XXX. Instead of forging 1000 discs as the contract, they produced 10000. Therefore, the rest 9000 HD-DVD will be sold as bootleg. This happens all the time in China, or HK and is the mainstream of piracy. Anyone please enlighten me how encryption can prevent this?

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