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post #1171 of 18952 Old 09-03-2004, 07:09 AM
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Sony should just get George Lucas to release the Original Trilogy (un-Special-Edition-ized) in hi-def on BluRay only, and seal the deal.

Actually, so this post has at least a passing chance of being relevant, I ask: It was posted tht Sony is having difficulty making the 50GB versions of discs efficiently. Is this just speculation, or is there some backing eveidence?

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post #1172 of 18952 Old 09-03-2004, 07:48 AM
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Doesn't the Panasonic recorder that came out a few weeks ago read and write dual layer Blue Ray discs?
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post #1173 of 18952 Old 09-03-2004, 07:58 AM
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Steve, I don't know what the true story is concerning the yield and costs of the dual-layer discs. But I do know that one of the HD-DVD folks was spreading some serious FUD. In fact, he was claiming that the 50GB disks didn't exist and would never exist, despite the fact that they have already been produced, with the first one being demoed in March I believe.

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post #1174 of 18952 Old 09-03-2004, 08:20 AM - Thread Starter
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All the articles I've read indicate that Columbia will release their first Blu-ray discs in early '06.
Actually, as I noted earlier on in this thread, Blu-ray spokesman have been all over the map on this one. I was basically playing devil’s advocate here to HeathNut, and back in March, a Philips Blu-ray spokesman indicated 2006 – 2007 as release time for pre-recorded content , so I split the difference as a worst case scenario. Same thing for Home Entertainment Summit executives back in June, as noted in this post (the link there isn’t working, maybe someone else can get it back, or copied the article). That being said, I’ll bet the timetables have been accelerated notably.
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The only reason it complicates matters is that the SEC is in TWX's kitchen right now and when another gov't agency comes snooping around, there's a lot of Washington in things...
Still not sure how big a problem this would be, particularly as Alex indicated some cash contingency if deal isn’t finalized. Of course that would lead MGM with only Sony as bidder, and a lot less leverage to max-out on deal.
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Now, as for anti-trust, unlike Alex, I believe this is a complete wash between Warner and Sony and I'm struggling to understand how it isn't.
Me too.
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Blu-ray has 1500 movies ready to go, NO remastering, already done, stamp to Blu-ray disc and ship.
HD DVD has nothin, nadda.
Don’t remember this info off the top of my head. Got a link? In any case, NYT article back in April discussed how TW and MGM titles were being remastered in 4k, so HD-DVD will probably be ready to make a similar move with TW’s support.

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post #1175 of 18952 Old 09-03-2004, 09:13 AM
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Originally posted by wco81
Well the stories posted here said that Kirk Kerkorian may favor the TW bid because getting stock would help him avoid a big tax bill.

James Bond probably sells well. Does MGM also own the Lord of the Rings or do they just own the Hobbit?
MGM has the rights to make "the Hobbit" movie. NL has the rights for distribution.

If TW buys MGM, this would be a great boost to LOTR fans everywhere.

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post #1176 of 18952 Old 09-03-2004, 10:30 AM
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Does anyone has any idea which output format all these BD or HDVDV players are supposed to use/allow? 1080p60, 1080p24sf, 1080i or 720p? I'll guess HDMI will be the preferred format although the sony blu-ray BDZ-S77 player (the only existing commercial player so far) doesn't seem to have it.
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post #1177 of 18952 Old 09-03-2004, 11:08 AM
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Quote:
Originally posted by Health Nut
Unless they spelled his name wrong?
On Google:

Occam's razor --> "about 50,000"
Ockam's razor --> 862

QED

:D

There is no difference in HDMI cables. If you can see the picture without visible dropouts or sparklies, the cable is working at 100%. No other cable will display a better version of that picture. You're simply wrong if you think there is a better digital cable than one that is already working.
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post #1178 of 18952 Old 09-03-2004, 11:48 AM
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Palladin wrote:
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Don’t remember this info off the top of my head. Got a link? In any case, NYT article back in April discussed how TW and MGM titles were being remastered in 4k, so HD-DVD will probably be ready to make a similar move with TW’s support.

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It was up to Columbia TriStar Home Entertainment president Benjamin Feingold to drop the ball. At the Digital Hollywood conference last week in Santa Monica, California, Feingold told reporters that the studio would begin issuing all new releases in the Blu-ray Disc high-definition format day-and-date with their standard DVD release as soon as the new hardware hits the market in the U.S. "We're 18 months to two years from launch," he was quoted. And: "We believe [all studios] will join within 18 months of launch" adding that Columbia would bolster its Blu-ray new-release slate with some three to four catalogue issues a month. And Columbia is well prepared, having mastered a lot of its catalogue already in High Definition, making a fast release of its titles possible at short notice.
http://www.dvdscan.com/blueray.htm

Any Columbia/Tri-Star dvd that says "mastered in high-definition" is ready for Blu-ray release.
Once again Warner Bros. and MGM are not as of today HD DVD supporters.
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post #1179 of 18952 Old 09-03-2004, 11:49 AM
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Just to add to the debate:

Ochkam's razor --- 38,200 hits

http://www.newadvent.org/cathen/15636a.htm
http://www.strw.leidenuniv.nl/~vdmeu.../spoilers.html
http://wotug.ukc.ac.uk/parallel/www/...occam-bio.html

According to what I'm seeing, it's Ockham or Occam, but not Ockam.

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post #1180 of 18952 Old 09-03-2004, 12:13 PM
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Quote:
Originally posted by Palladin
Actually, as I noted earlier on in this thread, Blu-ray spokesman have been all over the map on this one. I was basically playing devil’s advocate here to HeathNut, and back in March, a Philips Blu-ray spokesman indicated 2006 – 2007 as release time for pre-recorded content , so I split the difference as a worst case scenario. Same thing for Home Entertainment Summit executives back in June, as noted in this post (the link there isn’t working, maybe someone else can get it back, or copied the article). That being said, I’ll bet the timetables have been accelerated notably.
I just read another article dated 8/30/04 at High Fidelity Review which states that the first Blu-ray prerecorded content should be released late '05/early '06. I don't think even Sony knows exactly when at this point.

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Don’t remember this info off the top of my head. Got a link? In any case, NYT article back in April discussed how TW and MGM titles were being remastered in 4k, so HD-DVD will probably be ready to make a similar move with TW’s support.
The article actually states that Columbia has 1600 titles ready to go on Blu-ray. There's an older thread at this forum called "Blu-ray Summit Report." IIRC, the info lies within.
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post #1181 of 18952 Old 09-03-2004, 12:42 PM
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Originally posted by 720p
The article actually states that Columbia has 1600 titles ready to go on Blu-ray. There's an older thread at this forum called "Blu-ray Summit Report." IIRC, the info lies within.
I think the more accurate story (that the press is not hitting on) is Sony has 1600 titles from their library already transferred, color timed, and sitting on archive HDCAM tapes in their library that can be used as source for Blu-Ray.

The same could be said of any other studio as well....

Additionally, on a side note, there's no reason Sony, Columbia, or any other hardware company can't step up their release date given the finalization of hardware specs. Authoring systems should fall into place fairly quickly (if they don't already exist in some form).

Well, all I can say, this years CES in January, World War III will be in action between HD-DVD and Blu-Ray with shots being constantly fired. Last years CES, Blu-Ray was quite present, while HD-DVD was tucked in a corner out of the way in the Toshiba booth.

Let the fun begin...

-> No longer looking for Hi-Vision LDs <-

(I buried that format finally)


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post #1182 of 18952 Old 09-03-2004, 03:29 PM
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Let the fun begin...
I sincerely hope that all consumers will: look at all the facts and final specifications of both formats, pick the 'better' format, and go for the ONE FORMAT ONLY campaign. I don't know about you, but what else more can we say at this point?
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post #1183 of 18952 Old 09-03-2004, 03:40 PM
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Michael, LOL, I didn't even know about that spelling.

My Occam can still out-total Ockham and Ockam!

There is no difference in HDMI cables. If you can see the picture without visible dropouts or sparklies, the cable is working at 100%. No other cable will display a better version of that picture. You're simply wrong if you think there is a better digital cable than one that is already working.
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post #1184 of 18952 Old 09-03-2004, 04:26 PM - Thread Starter
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Originally posted by bwiklem

Well, all I can say, this years CES in January, World War III will be in action between HD-DVD and Blu-Ray with shots being constantly fired. Last years CES, Blu-Ray was quite present, while HD-DVD was tucked in a corner out of the way in the Toshiba booth.

Let the fun begin...
I don't know about WW III, but I agree that both sides will have a greater presence and be more aggressive in their approach. In fact, I'll see you and raise you one as well. 2005 CES will introduce more exciting products for this forum than 2004 CEDIA, for reasons which will become clear shortly.

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post #1185 of 18952 Old 09-03-2004, 07:01 PM
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Makes sense Palladin, but I'll have to raise you that it will be the format battle of the century at CES given we have two major formats both scheduled to launch in the same yar.

As for CEDIA, sounds like I'm glad I passed this year.

-> No longer looking for Hi-Vision LDs <-

(I buried that format finally)


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post #1186 of 18952 Old 09-03-2004, 08:05 PM - Thread Starter
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Originally posted by bwiklem
....but I'll have to raise you that it will be the format battle of the century at CES given we have two major formats both scheduled to launch in the same yar.
Aw, come on now bwiklem, we're only four years imto this century. What are we going to use as a point of comparison? :)

Seriously, I think we will see some battles, but mostly hard court presses, none of that Warren Leiberfarb bare-knuckle stuff. I know I'm probably in the minority here, but I don't think we're looking at a long-term, full blown war developing, because at some point in 2005, 'cooler' heads are probably going to prevail (or intervene).

The interesting point most tend to be ignoring, is the marketing aspect. Even if these two formats were to turn out to have comparable picture and audio quality (which I still doubt), than marketing (not to ignore pricing) will be a determining factor. BDA has almost a dozen of the most recognizable major CE manufacturers out there. Plus HP & Dell. Major advertising in the medias on various fronts. OTOH, you got NEC, Toshiba & Sanyo. Kinda like JVC (not saying anyone should use them as a role model for marketing) going up against the combined TI DLP partners, only much worse.

And the non-AVphile is going to see all this advertisement, and see that virtually every 'name' CE co. is supporting Blu-ray (along w/ Dell & HP), and think, "well that must be the better system", because of the familiarity and the number. Just don't think this won't be resolved before a major-scale war fully develops.

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post #1187 of 18952 Old 09-04-2004, 05:08 AM
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well I don't know about you guys but I think sonhy one this one, just tell everyone you know blu-ray is the way to go


http://www.pcworld.com/news/article/0,aid,117681,00.asp

here is another link which closes the gap, now both discs ar identical, except one has greater storage.
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post #1188 of 18952 Old 09-04-2004, 12:32 PM
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In the case of a 25GB single-layer Blu-ray Disc, about two hours of video encoded in MPEG-2 at a data rate of between 23 megabits per second and 25 mbps can be stored, Doherty says. MPEG-2 is used in DVD-Video and the first generation of the rewritable version of the Blu-ray Disc format. In contrast, the two new codecs can achieve an equivalent quality of video at about half the data rate and so expand the 25GB disc's capacity to up to 4 hours, he says.
Can we clarify if Sony/Columbia will be releasing movies on 50 GB discs, or 25 GB discs. Why are we even talking about 25 GB discs? If I wanted only 25 GB, I'd go with HD-DVD at 30GB. The only true advantage of Blu Ray is the extra storage space at this point, which is fine, but with all the talk on here lately about 50 GB discs potentially not being able to be produced in quantity/affordably, etc... Would have liked to have seen 50GB being quoted above. Can we shed more light on the 25 vs. 50 GB BD disc ? We are fact starved and hungry...
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post #1189 of 18952 Old 09-04-2004, 12:41 PM
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It depends really, with the extra features in high definition on BD-DVD's its going to require at least 50GB but the new Bluray discs are already at 100GB and reaching 200GB soon according to TDK, theres even a blu-ray based holographic disc which can hold 1000GB already running movies so what they plan to put movies on at the moment is little more than a rough guesstimate.
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post #1190 of 18952 Old 09-04-2004, 12:50 PM
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I was talking about current reality. We already know about 'potential' capability.
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post #1191 of 18952 Old 09-04-2004, 01:35 PM
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Quote:
Originally posted by Health Nut
Can we clarify if Sony/Columbia will be releasing movies on 50 GB discs, or 25 GB discs. Why are we even talking about 25 GB discs?
It is all about economics. 25GB or even 50GB doesn't mean we'll have the Ultimate EndAll Edition when a movie is released on BluRay. The studios aren't looking for ways to give up future revenue. As with any other studio, Sony will spend as little money as possible when a new title is released, then maybe a bit more when the Special Edition comes out. 25GB is plenty to release a fine "first effort" disc. Even room for a lot of extras.

We can all hope for perfect 1080p24 native video, lossless audio, all extras possible etc. etc. etc. on one disc as much as we want. It ain't happening, at least how I see (fear) it. They're going to cut the "cost" corners they can. It will happen, but it will be far from the first titles out the door...

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post #1192 of 18952 Old 09-04-2004, 01:43 PM
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That's goofy... I was simply addressing why Mr. Doherty was talking about 25 GB intead of 50 GB movies.

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We can all hope for perfect 1080p24 native video, lossless audio ...
I rather *expect* that at this point. I already have decent upscaled DVD at 720 and 1080p... Why not beg for crumbs while your at it?
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post #1193 of 18952 Old 09-04-2004, 01:52 PM
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theres even a blu-ray based holographic disc which can hold 1000GB already running movies so what they plan to put movies on at the moment is little more than a rough guesstimate.
Blu-ray based or blue laser based???

They are going to put movies on 25GB Blu-ray discs, no guesstimate at all.
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post #1194 of 18952 Old 09-04-2004, 01:55 PM
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They are going to put movies on 25GB Blu-ray discs, no guesstimate at all
Says who? (If that were the case, I'd find HD-DVD more appealing with 30 GB...)
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post #1195 of 18952 Old 09-04-2004, 01:56 PM
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We can all hope for perfect 1080p24 native video

I'm hoping for 1080/60p myself:) at 36Mbps.
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post #1196 of 18952 Old 09-04-2004, 01:59 PM
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Says who? (If that were the case, I'd find HD-DVD more appealing with 30 GB...)
Cheapest to manufacture, which is the only "rumoured" advantage HD DVD has left.
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post #1197 of 18952 Old 09-04-2004, 02:01 PM
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WHy would either HD DVD or Blu-ray jump into their dual-layer spec. when there is no need to right now?
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post #1198 of 18952 Old 09-04-2004, 02:17 PM
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Let the games begin... :)

1. BD-RE is *not* the same thing as BD-ROM, so let's stop talking about it. This thread is about HD content being delivered on disc, and that means HD-DVD or BD-ROM. The fact that Sony can deliver an expensive 50GB BD-RE disc for a recorder that can't even play BD-ROM discs says nothing about their ability to deliver a cost-effective 50GB BD-ROM disc.

2. Sony has publically released zero yield data on 50GB BD-ROM, which is never a good sign...especially when they have released yield data for 25GB BD-ROM discs. Their stated objective is to reach 1,000,000 discs/month on their two experimental BD-ROM lines (one a 25GB line, the other a 50GB line) at Terre Haut within the next year. Right now, for 25GB BD-ROM, Sony can do 5 seconds/disc at 70% yields...to get to 4 seconds/disc and 90%+ yields (typically the minimum yield necessary for mass production), DADC has some work to do. Obviously, the yields for 50GB BD-ROMs are worse...so DADC has lots more work to do. For comparisons sake, both 15GB HD-DVD and 30GB HD-DVD are already at 90%+ yields in volume on multiple lines at two different replicators (Cinram and Memory-Tech, both of which have publically released their production data). Again, in time, these things have a funny way of working themselves out, but I'll bet dollars to donuts that should we see a war, we'll see 30GB HD-DVD battling 25GB BD-ROM in the early battles. Any talk of 3 or 4 layer BD-ROMs is silly at this juncture--the top replicators have veto'd the concept, saying it wouldn't even approach being cost effective.

3. All of the "BD-ROM will only cost 10% more than DVD" PR is for 25GB BD-ROM, not 50GB BD-ROM, which by Sony's own admission will cost 50% more than a DVD-9, assuming the yields reach the 90% point for mass production, which is a pretty big assumption in and of itself. And let's not forget that the 10% quote is a still a goal for BD-ROM within the next year...it's a reality for HD-DVD right now. And while we're at it, the 25GB BD-ROM cost projections do not include the production equipment: suppliers like Unaxis, Singulus and Steag Hamatech peg the cost of a BD-ROM line buildout (about $6.5MM) at 5x the cost of a DVD-9 line. The same suppliers peg the cost of a HD-DVD line (which can do HD-DVD and DVD) at 1.1x the cost of a DVD-9 line. So let's stop the "Blu-ray costs only 10% more than a DVD and has twice as much storage space as HD-DVD" blather...to me, at least, it's obvious why the BDA added VC-1 to the codec portfolio...they had to, just like The DVD Forum had to with HD-DVD...better royalties leverage in the face of lower capacity offerings. Trust me, if DADC thought they could stamp out a 50GB BD-ROM at a cost only 10% greater than a DVD-9 before the debut of BD-ROM content, we'd have thousands of press releases trumpeting this...thus, the focus is shifted back to 25GB discs, which Sony/DADC is comfortable will hit 30GB HD-DVD price price points when needed.

4. CTHE is not going to open the floodgates on their catalog, or MGM's catalog if they get it, when BD-ROM discs debut. Feingold has already stated that they will do day and date releases for new movies and tee up 3-4 back catalog titles a month. To imply that we'll have 1,500 BD-ROM catalog titles to chose from anywhere near CTHE's entry into the market is ridiculous.

5. No studio is going to tee up any whales at the dawn of a format, no matter how desperate they are to sell players or how desparate we are to get titles. Can you see the headlines? "LOTR Trilogy sells 10,000 Blu-ray discs in its first day! New record!" There's a reason why most big catalog titles didn't hit DVD for a long, long time...studios like big numbers.

6. William was born in the village of Ockham in Surrey, England, so William of Ockham is his name. When he fled to Munich to avoid the wrath of the Pope, he apparently changed the spelling of his name to Occam while in hiding. He wrote his treatise on the medieval rule of parsimony while in Munich, thus the Occam's razor spelling. In other words, William of Ockham is most famous for Occam's razor.

7. As for the MGM anti-trust quip, Lehman, CSFB and a few others published research notes late last week that said TWX would have less of an anti-trust issue landing MGM than the Sony consortium. I didn't mean to imply that TWX wouldn't have to dance in front of the regulators, only that it's a better dancer than Sony et all, at least in the eyes of the street, who are a hell of a lot closer to the subject than I am. Speaking of et all, getting 4 parties to close a deal (MGM, Sony, Texas Pacific Group and Providence Equity Partners) vs. two parties (MGM and TWX) adds complexity, and as pretty much every analyst on the street has said, this deal is TWX's to lose precisely because of squabbles in the Sony consortium. As for the clean quip, a cash deal is definitely cleaner than a stock/debt assumption deal, especially one that would require TWX to issue unregistered shares while under an SEC investigation that prohibits them from issuing reigistered shares.

8. Sony can't afford to write a check and scoop up MGM...not going to happen. As it stands now, under the current revised offer, Sony is teeing up slightly less cash than before, less than Texas Pacific Group and Providence Equity Partners. TWX can afford to stroke a $5B check for MGM, Sony cannot. Even after 4 months of talks, Sony has failed to reach financing terms and the eventual buyout terms with its two partners...and that's only helping push MGM into TWX's hands at this point.

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post #1199 of 18952 Old 09-04-2004, 03:58 PM - Thread Starter
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As for the MGM anti-trust quip, Lehman, CSFB and a few others published research notes late last week that said TWX would have less of an anti-trust issue landing MGM than the Sony consortium. I didn't mean to imply that TWX wouldn't have to dance in front of the regulators, only that it's a better dancer than Sony et all, at least in the eyes of the street, who are a hell of a lot closer to the subject than I am.
Sorry, but this is still a little too nebulous to really understand at this point. It's not like the 'street' has never been wrong, and I'm not claiming they are here, but maybe you could clarify it a little. Can you tell us what exactly is in their published research notes (or anything else) that would indicate that TW would have less of an anti-trust issue than the Sony group in the MGM purchase?

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post #1200 of 18952 Old 09-04-2004, 04:02 PM
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Originally posted by Health Nut
Says who? (If that were the case, I'd find HD-DVD more appealing with 30 GB...)
Why? There's no need for 50GB at this point. You petitioned for advanced codecs, you got it, and even with a high bit-rate advanced codec, it's not even going to fill up 2/3 of a 25GB to put a 2.5 hour movie (majority of movies run 1 1/2 hours) plus multi-channel PCM audio on the disc.

And an extra 5GB is going to make you support HD-DVD when Blu-Ray clearly has all the specs you want?

-> No longer looking for Hi-Vision LDs <-

(I buried that format finally)


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