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post #1351 of 18952 Old 09-08-2004, 11:25 PM
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But I also think it's shortsighted not to insist that the winner is the best it can be now, not maybe, optionally, sometime in the future.
But as I have demonstrated in post 1345 above, Blu-Ray will be the better format now, AND in the future, even if HD-DVD adds lossless compression, and Blu-Ray does not. Of course, if both do, or neither do, this is a moot point.

But again, I think it is important to differentiate between lossless compression as a general concept and MLP in particular. MLP has other features besides compression that make it attractive. If HD-DVD were to adopt some of those "growth" features (like 12.4 channels) present in MLP, then I can see your point. But if it chooses to limit itself to 8 channels only, then it becomes nothing but a compression scheme, and therefore a crutch to partially compensate for its lower capacity compared to Blu-Ray.

EDIT: Let me be clear: of course it is true that one should insist that both of these formats achieve their full potential. I do think there are cost and complexity issues that mitigate this, but you are right. However, once the specs are set in stone, THEN I think you should drop the touchy-feely "untapped potential" stuff and figure out which one does the best job of serving the consumer in terms of cost, content, and picture and sound quality.

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post #1352 of 18952 Old 09-08-2004, 11:38 PM
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Oh, and Joel, you have an (unrelated) PM.

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post #1353 of 18952 Old 09-09-2004, 04:45 AM
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I think Joel simply said before is that he wants MLP included on the spec, and that if one of the groups actually had some 'balls', they would make MLP a mandatory part of the spec. Non mandatory items tend not to get supported, but if MLP is in every single Blu Ray player, well, you might just see it get used for movie soundtracks and not just DVD-Audio.

Personally, I don't care what flavor of lossless compression is utilized. I think we just want the ability to have lossless compression one way or another. The ability to address more channels could be done with uncompressed PCM as well, as long as HDMI supported the protocol, and you wouldn't need any additional cables, just the HDMI cable.

There is no audio processor currently, except for maybe one or two recenty released, that can take an HDMI cable input, so we are all going to have to upgrade anyway. Not only that, you'll need an HDMI input on your audio processor to direct uncompressed PCM to the proper channels in a 5.1/6.1 setup.... Since you are going to have to upgrade, certainly a consumer would like to get as much upgraded at on time.

To studios, please utilize VC-9 or MPEG-4 AVC with 16 Mbit/sec minimum quality. Lossless compression with the ability to address more audio channels would be appreciated.
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post #1354 of 18952 Old 09-09-2004, 06:34 AM
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Quote:
Originally posted by Michael Grant
Using lossless compression on the audio will only save you about 15% for a movie with a 16Mbps video stream and a 24/48 multichannel audio stream. This would be equivalent to boosting HD-DVD's capacity from 30GB to 35GB.

So tell me: why is HD-DVD with lossless compression better than BD-DVD without it?
Well I admit I'm ignorant of the technicalities involved with space issues. I had no idea lossless audio would take up that much space. All I know is that I want the best a/v possible. If HD-DVD is so limited that Blu-ray will beat it no matter what let's see the proof that Blu-ray is going to use all of the space on their discs. With Sony being a big part of the BDA I can't help but to point out that even the Superbit line of DVDs doesn't use all of the available disc space. This bothers me. Even they could have better quality than they do. Who's to say that Sony will turn over a new leaf with Blu-ray?
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post #1355 of 18952 Old 09-09-2004, 07:30 AM
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Quote:
Originally posted by Michael Grant
...And since Blu-Ray has the potential to go quad-layer....
Does quad-layer mean a quad laser? 'Cause if so, it's curtains for HD-DVD, for...NO ONE CAN DEFEAT THE QUAD LASER! :)

Ignignokt: No one can defeat the quad laser
Err: It is over now
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post #1356 of 18952 Old 09-09-2004, 07:57 AM
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Heck with that, I'm pulling out the OCT LAYER, BIATCH!!!!
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post #1357 of 18952 Old 09-09-2004, 09:03 AM
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Quote:
Originally posted by Paul_Seng
Are you trying to get everybody on this forum to think like you and have the same opinions?
No, I'm trying to inject some real world thought into the pie-in-the-sky fanboy lovefest that this thread has become. Given all the tenuous logical/application issues on the table for both formats (e.g., OAR protection, pay to play, forced internet connections, etc.), to still be mired in discussions of 100GB+ BD-ROMs and such seems silly. If the ultimate argument for Blu-ray over HD-DVD boils down to storage capacity/extensibility, then perhaps the Blu-ray guys should push Sony to refocus its interests on Optware, which is prepping 200GB-1TB 12cm discs for consumer retail in 2007. :rolleyes:
Quote:
Originally posted by RDoherty
There is no problem mass-producing dual layer discs. I'm not sure how to communicate this without seeming biased, but that's the facts. There are no new or particularly difficult replication steps that make it technically challenging, or anything like that. All replication steps have been done before in either DVD or CD mass replication. The tolerances are tighter, of course, but all the basic processes are well-known (spin coating, curing, etc.)

It's true, you can't go to a replicator today and order a run of a million Blu-ray discs. You can't do that for HD-DVD either, of course. But the physical spec was only completed last month (on schedule), so this is no surprise.

Note that you can go to a store in Japan and purchase a dual-layer, 50 GB, Blu-ray disc today. The manufacturing isn't the same as pre-recorded, but there is a lot of similarity.
First, Richard, thank you for taking the time to post more information. Always appreciated.

Can you--speaking as a member of the BDA--address Sony's projected cost data (and assumed yield data, since none has ever been released) for 50GB BD-ROM discs and put this issue to bed?

Here are the variables, please correct me where I am wrong:

(1) Based on reports from Sony/DADC, current 25GB BD-ROM trial runs in Japan are hitting 5 second cycle times and 70% yields.

(2) Based on articles quoting Sony/DADC, within the next 12 months, about when CTHE will start needing them, DADC Terre Haute will have two BD-ROM lines (one for 25GB and one for 50GB) capable of producing a total of 1,000,000 discs/month.

(3) Based on articles quoting Sony/DADC, within the next 12 months, DADC Terre Haute will get cycle time down to 4 seconds.

(4) Based on articles quoting Sony, within the next months, exclusive of line equipment costs, 25GB BD-ROMs will carry a 10% cost premium over DVD-9s and 50GB BD-ROMs will carry a 50% cost premium over DVD-9s, meaning that a 50GB BD-ROM will carry a 36% cost premium over a 25GB BD-ROM.

Switching to Armchair Replicator pose...

Assuming that 25GB yields improve to 90% (the typical "minimum" efficient target for mass production), with 4 second cycles for both 25GB and 50GB discs, that would imply that the 25GB line is good for about 583,000 discs/month. Assuming 1,000,000 discs/month in toto, that means the 50GB line is good for about 421,000 discs/month, which represents a 65% yield. Given the projected 36% cost premium for 50GB relative to 25GB BD-ROMs, a roughly 38% yield delta seems plausible.

I'm sorry, but assuming (2) and (3) are true--if they're not, Sony needs to clamp down on executives talking to reporters--that spells poor yields for 50GB BD-ROM given the manufacturing cost delta seen in (4), no matter how you slice the yield data. Even if you assume 50GB yields hit 75%, that implies that 25GB yields are only at 80%, still well below what a replicator wants to see for a high volume ROM operation.

As an aside, if you have the cash, Memory-Tech will be happy to stamp out a million run of 30GB HD-DVDs, hitting close to a 94% yield, right now. I hear Pony Canyon has the cash. :)
Quote:
Originally posted by KLee
If 50GB BRD disks are such a pipe dream, why are they for sale in japan??
Again, that would be a 50GB BD-RE disc, not a 50GB BD-ROM. Very different cost structure and pricing strategy.
Quote:
Originally posted by scaesare
You are drawing an inference. I was asking for any supporting documentition. All you have "proved" is that you don't know much about what a 50GB disc costs. Neither do I. For all we know, the cost/cycle-time improvements to the manufacturing line for 25GB discs may apply to the 50GB discs as well.
See above, run Sony's publically projected 50GB BD-ROM numbers yourself. Given the minimal cost/yield delta between single and dual layer HD-DVD, one would hope the same would hold true betwen single and dual layer BD-ROM, but a projected 36% cost delta, quoted by none other than Sony in an article intending to show how affordable BD-ROMs will be (which to me translates to a best case scenario), doesn't give me a warm fuzzy with repsect to projected yeilds.
Quote:
Originally posted by scaesare
I still maintain that by the time 50GB discs go in to production, seeing 100GB discs 2 years later is not unlikely. And studios (be they movie or game) will find a use for it.
If studios "could find a use for" 100GB ROM capacity within a 2 year timeframe of the release of the next generation disc, which is expected to rule for many, many years once released, they would have asked for it via the HAC manifesto. They didn't. If there is demand for 100GB+ ROM discs, it will have to be satisfied with a NEW format, be it BD-ROM+ or XYZ123. The BD-ROM physical format die has already been cast.

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post #1358 of 18952 Old 09-09-2004, 09:08 AM
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Alex and I agree on this last point 100%: 100GB discs for prerecorded movies just ain't gonna happen with the current format. Not unless the Blu-Ray consortium adds it to the final spec NOW. And I don't think that's practical, since they are still experimental (unlike 50GB discs, which are low volume, yes, but readily available), preventing CE manufacturers from testing their transports for quad-layer support.

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post #1359 of 18952 Old 09-09-2004, 09:20 AM
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720p:
Quote:
If HD-DVD is so limited that Blu-ray will beat it no matter what let's see the proof that Blu-ray is going to use all of the space on their discs.
Well, we can think of all sort of ways to fill 50GB, 720p. We've speculated on many. Heck, LOTR:FOTR EE "Superbit" (i.e., nice high bit-rate video and lossless audio) won't fit in 30GB.
Quote:
With Sony being a big part of the BDA I can't help but to point out that even the Superbit line of DVDs doesn't use all of the available disc space. This bothers me. Even they could have better quality than they do. Who's to say that Sony will turn over a new leaf with Blu-ray?
I honestly do not know why this is the case, but it is important to keep in mind that DVD-Video is doubly constrained: by capacity and by maximum bitrate. At the maximum bitrate, you can fit 112 minutes on a dual-layer DVD. Anything shorter than that, and you're just going to have extra space left over, and nothing can be done about that. This double constraint made MLP all the more mandatory for DVD-Audio: you just can't fit high-resolution multichannel audio through that thin bandwidth pipe without compression. Anyway, I'm not saying this is definitely the only reason why Superbit movies don't use all the disc capacity, but if they are shorter than 112 minutes, it is certainly one of them.

We don't have that problem with either HD-DVD or Blu-Ray, I believe, as long as the advanced video codecs are used. For example, Blu-Ray has a maximum bandwidth of 54Mbps/sec, which is more than enough to handle, say, a 20Mbps video stream and an 18.432Mbps audio stream. And yet, even at that "UltraHyperSuperbit" rate, a 50GB Blu-Ray disc can store 173 minutes of video.

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post #1360 of 18952 Old 09-09-2004, 09:53 AM
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Alex, I was asking that question to the blu-ray supporters.
If technical superiority was the only factor then it should have been a done deal. I have been stating that technically, HD-DVD is good enough to give the consumers (the mass consumers)a new format.
I believe that cost vs quality will be the winner. I don't think most of the consumers are going to scrutinize the PQ and AQ that much. They will say: "Wow, this looks better than my old DVD" or "This looks and sounds just as good as HDTV". To expect more from them is wishfull dreaming. And HD-DVD can promise on those expectations.
As for the studios, let's not forget perception of the product and the companies supporting each format. Sony has not made inroads with the other movie/music studios since their purchase. They are still the black sheep. And each company has to answer to their shareholders, where many of Sony's didn't want to purchase MGM at all. This alone might have a negative image for Sony with the other studios.
Really, try to look past the technology and into the politics of both arguements.

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post #1361 of 18952 Old 09-09-2004, 10:44 AM
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Intresting article about Microsoft's ambitions to have their codec become the standard.

http://www.businessweek.com/magazine...9101_mz063.htm
Gates Tries For A Hollywood Ending

It looked like a boffo debut for William H. Gates III and his attempt to go Hollywood. Two years ago, flanked onstage by Oscar-winning Titanic director James Cameron and rapper LL Cool J, the Microsoft chairman unveiled his company's latest version of its audio and video software. But Microsoft Corp.'s (MSFT ) upbeat show hit a dark second act. Holding court later in a suite at the Four Seasons Hotel, Gates delivered what one Hollywood mogul called "a second-grade tutorial" on the economics of selling movies online. It was "a little uppity," says the mogul, "even for the richest man on the planet." Advertisement

Someone must have sent in a script doctor. Since the debacle, Microsoft has phased out the geeks in favor of Hollywood insiders, such as former Warner Bros. Inc. (TWX ) DVD chief Warren Lieberfarb. In July, Microsoft hired Blair Westlake, former chairman of Universal Television & Networks Group, to run a newly created unit to lobby Hollywood. Their goal? Persuade the studios to wrap their movies in Microsoft's software, which the company is offering for free. That way, Microsoft can turn around and sell the software that plays these digital versions of movies to computer makers, consumer-electronics companies, and online video services.

Microsoft is smoothing over its legal disputes as well. During the past year, the company settled lawsuits with Time Warner Inc. (TWX )'s Netscape unit and tiny InterTrust Technologies Corp., a copy-protection technology maker that's partly owned by Sony Corp. (SNE )

The new approach is helping Microsoft make headway. It won nonexclusive software licensing deals with Time Warner and Walt Disney Co. (DIS ) Time Warner is considering making its content available to PCs and portable devices that use Microsoft's Media Center software. Disney is looking at using Microsoft's software to deliver movies and TV shows over the Net. Microsoft has also won approval to include its encoding software in the next-generation HD DVDs, including the new Blu-ray format backed by Sony.

Still, the studios remain wary of Microsoft, given its bruising monopolistic practices of the past. Hollywood execs, originally concerned that they would have to pay for every movie or show digitized using Microsoft's software, were relieved at the company's willingness to provide it for free under a 10-year agreement. But the historical distrust lingers. "Sounds great, but studios are waiting for what happens in the 11th year, when Microsoft says it has Windows 15 and it's gonna cost you a bundle," says Richard Doherty, research director at the Envisioneering Group, a consultancy that has advised studios in the past. At the same time, these strategies have raised the hackles of competitors. In December, rival RealNetworks Inc. (RNWK ) filed suit, charging Microsoft's practice of giving away software to content providers was part of a pattern of anticompetitive behavior.

Hollywood is being careful to avoid becoming dependent on Microsoft. The five studios that own the Movielink movie download service use software from both Microsoft and RealNetworks. And despite its recent deal with Microsoft, Disney shows no inclination to drop the copy-protection technology that it licenses from Switzerland's Nagravision to protect movies on Disney's MovieBeam video-on-demand service for TVs.

Tinseltown execs may still love a tale of redemption. But it may take more than a new script for Microsoft to remake itself from villain to hero.
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post #1362 of 18952 Old 09-09-2004, 10:48 AM
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Paul,
You will get no argument from me that politics is going to play a huge part in the Blu-Ray/HD-DVD war. Heck, it already has.

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post #1363 of 18952 Old 09-09-2004, 11:31 AM
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Quote:
Originally posted by Alimentall
Great! Okay, since you're "in the know", here's the info you can easily provide:

1. What is the typical budget for a movie?
2. How many hours does it take to master the soundtrack into 5.1 or 6.1?
3. What is the cost of the sound engineer for that mastering process only?
4. What is the cost of the studio time for the mastering process only?

As I recall, the average movie costs about $100,000,000 to produce.
Let's assume that the sound engineer gets a WHOPPING $100,000 simply to master the sound track into 6.1 (from the multi-track recording) for, perhaps, 1 week of work (not bad, $5M/year!).
Let's then assume that it costs exactly twice as much to mix the sound to 12.2, that's $200,000, or $100,000 more than normal.
That's a .1% increase in the cost of the film.
But let's say .5% because of the added cost of studio time.

How much do you think that has added to the cost of a BD movie?

I await your informed friend of the business response.
Your response is laughable....you're asking for a quantified response to something that has no quantification because THERE IS NO STANDARD BUDGET.

This is coming from a guy that has no concept of what it costs to mix additional channels of audio, but passes information off (it can't take hardly any more time or money) as fact. Just like the other "facts" you've posted that others have called you on.

But **** it, I'll play along...

1. Rhetorical question that can't be answered. But for the last movie that was done, the audio budget was roughly $10m

2. Again, every film is different, but for an action film, a good three months worth of work is involved.

3. Irrelevant given it's factored into #4.

4. Mixing is the key here, since it's the mixing that puts audio in all the different channels. For said action film, mixing was in the neighborhood of $850,000.

You think a movie studio is going to spend more money to mix for more channels that no piece of equipment currently supports or that will likely have little consumer support?

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post #1364 of 18952 Old 09-09-2004, 12:04 PM
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Hey Brian, you're getting me mixed up with Joel...you quoted me but blasted him. Who was the subject of your wrath? Sometimes, it's hard to keep track of who's winning. :)

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post #1365 of 18952 Old 09-09-2004, 02:04 PM
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Quote:
Blu-Ray has a maximum bandwidth of 54Mbps/sec
As I wrote before, 54 Mbit/sec is 1.5X spin rate. Mr Doherty would need to confirm that the first Blu Ray players released here in the states would indeed be 1.5X players. Otherwise, your talking standard 1.0X at 36Mbit/sec, just like HD-DVD. On a side note, Nobody has commented on whether or not HD-DVD can do 1.5X or 2.0.
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post #1366 of 18952 Old 09-09-2004, 02:25 PM
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Health Nut, we have had ample confirmation from both the Blu-Ray docs posted on this web site and R. Doherty himself that 1.5X is almost a certainty for prerecorded ROMs, and maybe even 2.0X. On the other hand, even though HD-DVD can likely do 1.5X or 2.0X in theory, if the spec doesn't say it, prerecorded titles cannot take advantage of it.

Having said that, 36MBps is plenty of bandwidth for most content. Even 16Mbps video + uncompressed 8-channel PCM audio at 24/96 will fit into 36Mbps. My points about about BD-DVD not being bandwidth limited are basically true for HD-DVD as well, especially if HD-DVD adopts lossless audio compression.

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post #1367 of 18952 Old 09-09-2004, 02:32 PM
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Those were my thoughts as well, however, I can't just assume that the first Blu Ray Players would be 1.5X players. Would take 2 seconds from Mr Dohery to confirm, so hopefully he will.
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post #1368 of 18952 Old 09-09-2004, 02:46 PM
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Quote:
Originally posted by amillians
Hey Brian, you're getting me mixed up with Joel...you quoted me but blasted him. Who was the subject of your wrath? Sometimes, it's hard to keep track of who's winning. :)
My bad, and my apologies....damn, both your user names are too similar :D

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post #1369 of 18952 Old 09-09-2004, 03:12 PM
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Health Nut. This is what he has already said (emphasis mine):
Quote:
4. You will see various, conflicting bitrates for the ROM format -- it has not been finalized. It will be more than 40Mb/s, and less than or equal to 72Mb/s. (BTW, 1x = 36Mb/s, 1.5x = 54Mb/s, 2x = 72Mb/s, with 54Mb/s the most likely, as you see in the slide). There may be an additional restriction on the video playback, due to real-time HD decoding requirements, which is where the 40Mb/s max video speed came from. This would be a 40Mb/s limit on the video only, with a larger limit of 54Mb/s when adding all the additional streams (like audio). Again, nothing has been finalized. The final spec should, in any case, be far more than enough for the very highest quality video and audio.
I suspect he won't be able to provide any more confirmation than this yet, but hey, if he can, that would be great.

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post #1370 of 18952 Old 09-09-2004, 04:32 PM
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As an aside, if you have the cash, Memory-Tech will be happy to stamp out a million run of 30GB HD-DVDs, hitting close to a 94% yield, right now. I hear Pony Canyon has the cash.
Where'd you dig up this juicy bit?
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post #1371 of 18952 Old 09-11-2004, 01:26 AM
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Ya that's what I thought:rolleyes:
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post #1372 of 18952 Old 09-11-2004, 09:39 AM
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Quote:
Originally posted by 4K display
Ya that's what I thought:rolleyes:
There are these things called "smiley faces," and when used at the end of a post, they indicate humor, a joke or a tongue-in-cheek quip. That's why I used one. Duh.

The friggin app spec isn't finished for HD-DVD...who in their right mind would pay M-T (or Cinram, or DADC for that matter) to press useless discs?!? Pony Canyon will be the first paying customer for HD-DVD, and they will be using M-T to do their runs...they've already announced the deal. The point I was making, in response to Richard's point, was that even though no one is ready to order a run of 1,000,000 discs, M-T can handle it, right now.

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post #1373 of 18952 Old 09-11-2004, 11:53 AM
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I read that Memory-Tech ran off a million HD DVDs with 90% yeild to prove that they were ready, how else would you prove it.
I do however wonder if they actually had any content on those platters and if not it was quite a waste of material..no, and a useless test.
And in that read there was no mention of dual-layer 30GB being tested.


Quote:
The friggin app spec isn't finished for HD-DVD
LOL then what the hell did they submit to the DVD Forum?
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post #1374 of 18952 Old 09-11-2004, 01:45 PM
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Quote:
Originally posted by 4K display
I read that Memory-Tech ran off a million HD DVDs with 90% yeild to prove that they were ready, how else would you prove it.
I do however wonder if they actually had any content on those platters and if not it was quite a waste of material..no, and a useless test.
And in that read there was no mention of dual-layer 30GB being tested.
M-T has the (tested) capacity to do 2,800,000 discs/month on 4 lines, 30GB. All four lines can also do DVD-9, with a (tested) capacity of 3,300,000 discs.

A monitor shot from the Akeno line documenting the 3.52 second cycle time for 30GB HD-DVD (vs. 2.96 for DVD-9 on the same line):

http://files.messe.de/newspics/2107_c.jpg

DVD on the left; HD-DVD on the right. Both were produced on the same line at Akeno 8/14/04 in front of reporters:

http://files.messe.de/newspics/2107_d.jpg

Given that a sample HD-DVD was reportedly played in front of the press on 8/14/04 "hot of the presses," they had some pre-spec sample content...of what, I have no idea.
Quote:
Originally posted by 4K display
LOL then what the hell did they submit to the DVD Forum?
The DVD Forum has approved the physical spec for HD-DVD, just as the BDF/BDA has approved the physical spec for BD-ROM. Neither format has an approved logical/application spec at this time...this is why we are endlessly debating video formats, audio formats/codecs, DRM, CP, etc. in the absence of said specs.

Alex doesn't live here anymore
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post #1375 of 18952 Old 09-12-2004, 09:17 PM
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Originally posted by amillians
Can you--speaking as a member of the BDA--address Sony's projected cost data (and assumed yield data, since none has ever been released) for 50GB BD-ROM discs and put this issue to bed?
I'll try to answer some of this stuff, but you really need to be talking to Sony to get the straight scoop. I can only comment on the stuff that has been released publicly from Sony through the BDF.
Quote:
Here are the variables, please correct me where I am wrong:

(1) Based on reports from Sony/DADC, current 25GB BD-ROM trial runs in Japan are hitting 5 second cycle times and 70% yields.
I think yield is currently closer to 80%. They are well on track to making 90% by launch time.
Quote:
(2) Based on articles quoting Sony/DADC, within the next 12 months, about when CTHE will start needing them, DADC Terre Haute will have two BD-ROM lines (one for 25GB and one for 50GB) capable of producing a total of 1,000,000 discs/month.
Where did you read that? I think this isn't public, and if it is it may not be reported accurately. I think this is the data that may be a wild estimate that is throwing off your conclusions.

Quote:

(3) Based on articles quoting Sony/DADC, within the next 12 months, DADC Terre Haute will get cycle time down to 4 seconds.

(4) Based on articles quoting Sony, within the next months, exclusive of line equipment costs, 25GB BD-ROMs will carry a 10% cost premium over DVD-9s and 50GB BD-ROMs will carry a 50% cost premium over DVD-9s, meaning that a 50GB BD-ROM will carry a 36% cost premium over a 25GB BD-ROM.
Note that this is well in line with DVD, where a DVD-9 costs about 40% more than a DVD-5. Also, note that HD-DVD has stated similar figures: HD-DVD30 will be about 40% more than HD-DVD15.

Quote:

Switching to Armchair Replicator pose...

Assuming that 25GB yields improve to 90% (the typical "minimum" efficient target for mass production), with 4 second cycles for both 25GB and 50GB discs, that would imply that the 25GB line is good for about 583,000 discs/month. Assuming 1,000,000 discs/month in toto, that means the 50GB line is good for about 421,000 discs/month, which represents a 65% yield. Given the projected 36% cost premium for 50GB relative to 25GB BD-ROMs, a roughly 38% yield delta seems plausible.
Working backward from the million disc announcement to deduce yields is not really accurate. The million disc number is obviously a simplification, and I believe they expect to be closer to 1,166,400 discs per month, where both the double and single lines are operating at 90% yield and 4 seconds cycle.
Again, realize that I really can't speak with any authority what's going on over at Sony.
Quote:

See above, run Sony's publicly projected 50GB BD-ROM numbers yourself. Given the minimal cost/yield delta between single and dual layer HD-DVD, one would hope the same would hold true between single and dual layer BD-ROM, but a projected 36% cost delta, quoted by none other than Sony in an article intending to show how affordable BD-ROMs will be (which to me translates to a best case scenario), doesn't give me a warm fuzzy with respect to projected yields.
Again, this 36% difference between dual layer and single layer is very similar to the difference between dual and single layer DVDs (about 40%), and the announced difference between single and dual layer HD-DVDs (about 40%).

Note that by choosing HD-DVD as a consumer format, you will also be choosing a rewriteable format -- and you are choosing 20Gb over 50GB, a substantial difference. This is due to the fact that we believe 40GB dual layer HD-DVD rewriteables will not be ready at launch -- they have announced 40GB rewritable as a 'future' format. (Truly, I try to be non-confrontational and not discuss the competitive format much, but sometimes I falter)

Richard E. Doherty
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post #1376 of 18952 Old 09-13-2004, 07:23 AM
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You're doing great Richard. Thanks for participating :)

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post #1377 of 18952 Old 09-13-2004, 09:32 AM
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Richard, can I ask what your take is if HD-DVD is adopted instead of blu-ray by the majority of studios?

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post #1378 of 18952 Old 09-13-2004, 10:05 AM
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Sony's upping their offer...

http://asia.news.yahoo.com/040913/3/1o5rp.html

This thing is getting hotter. Sony would assume $2 billion of MGM's debt. Also looks like Time-Warner is setting a deadline for the completion of a deal or they might pull out.

"Feeling stupid? I know I am." Homer Simpson
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post #1379 of 18952 Old 09-13-2004, 10:12 AM - Thread Starter
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Thanks for the link. Kind of confirmed what I had read about Sony trying to shore up its offer. TW's timeline press for MGM to decide pretty much indicates they don't want to get into a further bidding war. Guess its MGM's time to make a call, unless they think TW is blowing smoke.

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post #1380 of 18952 Old 09-13-2004, 10:52 AM
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Agreed. The thick plottens!

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