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post #1 of 18952 Old 06-10-2004, 07:23 PM - Thread Starter
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Not sure if this has been posted yet, but the next maneuver in the upcoming format wars will be taking place in Seattle this week.

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post #2 of 18952 Old 06-10-2004, 08:24 PM
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Swe-e-e-e-t, thanks. Looking forward to seeing how this shakes out.

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post #3 of 18952 Old 06-10-2004, 09:50 PM
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Sony and blu-ray versus the world.

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post #4 of 18952 Old 06-10-2004, 09:59 PM
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"Hollywood studios, which produce billions of DVD discs a year, are very sensitive to even a slight rise in the price of production, Inada said. "

Well, it looks like the idea of encapsulated media is out the window. Better handle your HD-DVD in a 10,000 class clean room when movie night comes along every week. With pico-nano-micro meter pit and space sizes on the disc, any speck of dust is going to ruin the movie completely. "Honey, fire up the ultrasonic ethanol disc cleaner; looks like we have a skip in the movie again."

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post #5 of 18952 Old 06-10-2004, 10:01 PM
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And I perceive it as the opposite: NEC and Toshiba vs. the world.

The BluRay group includes essentially all the world's biggest companies in their respective fields:

* Dell and HP -- far and away the two largest PC makers on the planet
* Samsung and LG -- far and away the two largest CE mfrs. in Korea, the fastest growing CE making country on earth
* Thomson and Philisp -- far and away the two largest CE mfrs. in Europe
* Matsushita, Sharp, Mitsubishi, Hitachi and Pioneer -- basically the entire Japanese CE mfg. universe except for Toshiba

The HD-DVD group has a standards body that is so beyond irrelevant that there are still three different recordable DVD formats in the marketplace, one large CE mfr. that is doing this because they are still bitter than Time Warner brokered a deal on DVD that didn't give the world, and NEC, a company that is large and yet somehow really just not that important.

Obviously, it's going to be decided by the studios. But of those, the only own owned by a member of either camp is owned by Sony.

Leaving aside the fact that I'll join hands with everyone who feels that the next gen standard should indeed be multi codec and therefore leaving aside the religious wars about which one is better, explain to me how HD-DVD is going to win given the absolute paucity of hardware mfr. support. The BluRay group is going to build players and recorders no matter what. They are going to sell them to record TV. They are going to have pre-recorded movies from at least Sony.

And they are not going to all cave in and agree to pay monopolist's royalties to NEC and Toshiba.

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post #6 of 18952 Old 06-10-2004, 11:44 PM
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BD-ROM 1080i legacy :mad:
HD-DVD 1080p no filtered stuff :cool:
Let those with old displays have the box/dvd interlace and filter away the pixture quality!

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post #7 of 18952 Old 06-11-2004, 02:41 AM
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BR will become 1080p no filtered stuff when we get the 5th edition of T2 release! I guess that makes BR a winner by the studio point of view! :)

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post #8 of 18952 Old 06-11-2004, 04:39 AM - Thread Starter
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Quote:
And I perceive it as the opposite: NEC and Toshiba vs. the world.

The BluRay group includes essentially all the world's biggest companies in their respective fields:

* Samsung and LG -- far and away the two largest CE mfrs. in Korea, the fastest growing CE making country on earth........
I remebered reading this about a month back. Actually, it looks like Samsung is hedging its bets and planning to come out a winner whatever the outcome. Seems to be quite the party girl.

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post #9 of 18952 Old 06-11-2004, 05:13 AM
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It's the content providers that will make this fly or not as a video delivery method.

BTW, Warner has announced backing of HD-DVD.

Since HD-DVD can be pressed on an unmodified DVD line, the initial cost advantage will not be overlooked by studios.

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post #10 of 18952 Old 06-11-2004, 05:20 AM
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Bill Hunt had a good commentary on this mess yesterday, check www.thedigitalbits.com. The majority of the consumers don't need or want a highdef format, confusion will abound, its SACD/DVD-Audio all over again.... We NEED a single high-def format!

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post #11 of 18952 Old 06-11-2004, 06:28 AM
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I saw some bit in Video Business a few days ago about Lieberfarb publically challenging the Sony camp to prove that there will be enough plant capacity to stamp out Blu-Ray discs at the levels Hollywood will need...and his one time buddy Feingold defiantly spit back that Sony had cranked out "over 1,000,000" discs to date. I don't know what's more disturbing: the fact that since the launch, there's only 1,000,000 BR discs out there, or the fact that Sony thinks that a plant that can crank out 1,000,000 discs is something to brag about.

If the HD DVD boys would hurry up and disclose their CP sceme to the studios as promised, Warner and Universal are ready to sign on the dotted line, with a planned 05H1 debut...that alone is enough to cement HD DVD as "the winner," CTS be damned. Add in the fact that prominent replicators are VERY excited about HD DVD vis a vis BR, and maybe the "war" won't be much more than Sony proving once again that they like to lose. :)

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post #12 of 18952 Old 06-11-2004, 07:07 AM - Thread Starter
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Yeah Alex,

I read a couple of articles about that confrontation by Lieberfarb, and he came across as pretty agressive on that front, and not exactly disinterested. I think it was mentioned that he was instrumental in pressing the WM-9 codec with the DVD Forum, so I'm not sure what, if any, agenda or stake he might have in the outcome of this mess.

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post #13 of 18952 Old 06-11-2004, 07:29 AM
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I am willing to donate my time (and handgun, bullets, and scare tactics) to holding them in a room until they finalize EVERYTHING.

When will D* stop pushing HD-Lite while charging us for full HD? Digital input on a CRT is a reality, not a possibility.
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post #14 of 18952 Old 06-11-2004, 09:46 AM
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The size of the pits will be smaller, sure, but as a percentage of the data, the occlusion caused by a spec of dust will be the same as with DVD or CD. So it seems to me therefore that, with sufficient interleaving, HD-DVD could be similarly robust to dust or scratches. Of course, more interleaving means more buffering and I don't know what compromise they actually settled on.

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post #15 of 18952 Old 06-11-2004, 10:52 AM
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A cheap universal player solves all.

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post #16 of 18952 Old 06-11-2004, 10:55 AM
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I've always liked HD-DVD because of the no-cartridge requirement.

I hate storing DVD's on shelves because they also get missorted, or lost with so many. Then you have to pull them from their case which sometimes warps them as you pull. I like to keep my entire collection nice in neat in one mega changer. You can't do that with a catridge based disc. Oh and I want 1080p.

I read another article in MSNBC that predicted that Blue Ray would succeed in Japan and HD-DVD here in the states. Would this be similar to how Laser Disc was huge in China and flopped here? *scratches head*
BTW: Shouldn't this be in DVD-Hardware forum?

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post #17 of 18952 Old 06-11-2004, 11:59 AM
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There is no cartridge requirement for either format, Griffin.

And as for the studio support for HD-DVD, it's news to me. That's great.

I guess the problem I see is this --> NEC and Toshiba lack the CE might to deliver the goods. So unless they convert more than just Samsung, their victory could still be our loss... No players --> little content --> few players --> little content.

Sony will never give up, right? I mean are we going to wait 10 years before they release movies on HD-DVD because they are still pushing BluRay?

I don't want a universal player; I want a universal format. The market will expand many times faster that way.

Is there no room for compromise on this? Or do Toshiba and Sony have greed that simply knows no bounds?

There is no difference in HDMI cables. If you can see the picture without visible dropouts or sparklies, the cable is working at 100%. No other cable will display a better version of that picture. You're simply wrong if you think there is a better digital cable than one that is already working.
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post #18 of 18952 Old 06-11-2004, 01:41 PM - Thread Starter
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Sony will never give up, right? I mean are we going to wait 10 years before they release movies on HD-DVD because they are still pushing BluRay?
Probably not. My understanding from a Sony Rep at HE, was that CTS resisted turning over their catalogue to SE for Blu-ray due to content protection concerns, but lost the fight. But if Blu-ray becomes the clearly subordinate format, my guess is that CTS will force their hand and those titles will be released on HD-DVD as well, at some point.
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Is there no room for compromise on this? Or do Toshiba and Sony have greed that simply knows no bounds?
While there should be room for compromise, the players are all well aware of the ridiculous amount of money that DVD generated, and even if Hi Def DVD is less, it will still also be an astronomical load of cash. Unfortunately, I think they're both going to take the 'scorched earth' approach until one is forced to capitulate.

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post #19 of 18952 Old 06-11-2004, 02:12 PM
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Well, that will serve to utterly minimize the market to videophiles only. Normal folk won't risk buying into a potentially obsolete format; they've been rejecting such formats in droves for years now.

Let me say it, even this it's obvious:

This is completely idiotic.

There is no difference in HDMI cables. If you can see the picture without visible dropouts or sparklies, the cable is working at 100%. No other cable will display a better version of that picture. You're simply wrong if you think there is a better digital cable than one that is already working.
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post #20 of 18952 Old 06-11-2004, 02:17 PM
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Quote:
Originally posted by rogo
Is there no room for compromise on this? Or do Toshiba and Sony have greed that simply knows no bounds?
Don't go thinking its just Toshiba and Sony. Have you had a more broad-look on American businesses lately?

When will D* stop pushing HD-Lite while charging us for full HD? Digital input on a CRT is a reality, not a possibility.
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post #21 of 18952 Old 06-11-2004, 02:45 PM
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How dare a company do something entirely ethical that it perceives to be in its best profit interests! The horror!

Look, I hope Sony and Toshiba are motivated by greed here---at least, by monetary greed. They need to be doing whatever it takes to make as much money selling HD-DVDs and/or Blu-Ray players as possible. And they know damn well that means getting the titles on disc.

Now we know that Sony doesn't have the best track record in the world for picking a winning format---but the Betamax/VHS war also proves that the market can survive a format war.

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post #22 of 18952 Old 06-11-2004, 03:39 PM
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Interesting chart from computex show:

http://images.anandtech.com/reviews/...disc_hddvd.jpg

For me, space is king. I'll take anything that allows for less compression and more content. Go Blu-Ray! BTW, this chart does indicate that you need a cartridge to hold the disc.
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post #23 of 18952 Old 06-11-2004, 04:50 PM - Thread Starter
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Post-Time at the track, and the results are in, here and here. International Corps, start your engines.

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post #24 of 18952 Old 06-11-2004, 05:48 PM
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Good links, Palladin. Now when I look at the second one, I get the impression that VC-9 is no longer "provisional" but now an official part of the standard. The THG story isn't so sure about that, but it seems clear enough to me. What do you think?

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post #25 of 18952 Old 06-11-2004, 06:30 PM
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What does all this mean to the layman?

When will D* stop pushing HD-Lite while charging us for full HD? Digital input on a CRT is a reality, not a possibility.
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post #26 of 18952 Old 06-11-2004, 06:43 PM - Thread Starter
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Actually Michael, I had to go back and read both links a second time, so I understand Wofgang's confusion. But I agree with your conclusion because it makes more sense. The problem was the language.

"Motion to retain the provisional approval of the CODECs until the level of information concerning the licensing terms for VC-9 is the same as the level of information concerning the licensing terms for AVC/H.264." "not approved".

Now my best guess is that this motion was intended by a Blu-ray member to coyly keep VC-9 on a lower status level at this time, which would have been the result if it had been 'approved'. The 'not approved' is somewhat ambiguous, because it could mean that VC-9 was mandated, OR that it had lost even its provisional standing until the level of licensing terms became clearer. It really could have meant either. (And these are the guys we're entrusting the future of Hi-Def DVD to? :rolleyes: )

However, it makes no sense to me that the DVD Forum would drop VC-9, because even if they didn't intend to use it, it is still a valuable negotiating chip to use against the Blu-ray side, due to the involvement of many of the CE manufacturers in the MPEG-2/H.264 codec patents. The studios want to see this succeed, and I doubt if they care whether (poor) Microsoft ends up with the short end of the stick, if it will help to avoid a format war.

EDIT: Oh and btw, as of about a month back, the Blu-ray Founders were reborn as the Blu-ray Disc Association (BDA) in order to solicit new members.

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post #27 of 18952 Old 06-11-2004, 11:38 PM
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Michael, you know I'm a capitalist, but the Sony - Toshiba battle here is not about capitalism, it's about greed and ignorance.

It's the mistaken belief that owning 100% of a smaller pie is a good thing.

Sony has taken the approach since they won the CD battle (with Philips) that they are entitled to dictate standards and keep all the royalties.

Toshiba is still furious that instead of their standard for DVD just winning flat out, they were forced to make a compromise that cut their slice of the licensing pie.

Imagine if there had been two DVD standards? Hollywood sure as heck can't with a large bottle of Valium nearby.

The market for HD-DVD is going to be exponentially larger if there is one standard than if there are two.

On an unrelated note, does anyone outside of Microsoft really care if the standard only includes H.264 or also includes VC9? I sure don't. Both are more bandwidth efficient than MPEG-2 and while the VC9 demos are great, I'm quite sure an H.264 that is being used by everyone will develop fantastic encoders more than quickly enough.

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post #28 of 18952 Old 06-12-2004, 04:25 AM
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my prediction:

the CE manufacturers will be packaging affordable blu-ray based burners for my computers well before
the high definition content is available on disk here in the states.

uncompressed capacity is king

(i'll finally get to back up my 2 TB disk array to a non-tape based solution!!)

gotta believe that the chart posted above came from the HD-DVD camp.
wonder what the BR equivalent looks like.
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post #29 of 18952 Old 06-12-2004, 04:40 AM
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Who outside of the Sony camp has promised prerecorded movies in high-definition?

When will D* stop pushing HD-Lite while charging us for full HD? Digital input on a CRT is a reality, not a possibility.
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post #30 of 18952 Old 06-12-2004, 06:23 AM
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lcubed says:

Quote:
(i'll finally get to back up my 2 TB disk array to a non-tape based solution!!)
Sorry, but 30-60 discs to backup a 2TB array (to me) isn't more efficient than tape, and it'll be at a slower data rate.

I can't say anything about your environment, but in the environments I've worked on, backup windows need to be as small as possible, and neither of these solutions cuts it for large-scale archiving.

With LTO and 8mm at the 30MB/second (about 8 times faster), and a more managable number of tapes to deal with (20 or less) I know which option I'd go for.

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