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HiDef DVD News VII - News Only : AND WE MEAN IT: NEWS ONLY

638K views 4K replies 310 participants last post by  Wendell R. Breland 
#1 ·
This is a continuation of HiDef DVD News VI - A New Beginning???

12/23 Thread rule change: Please limit posts in this thread to a link to a news article and/or a partial quote with an optional line or two describing the article.


Take discussion of any article to a new thread, but you're welcome to link to the discussion thread. Quote the news post, type "discussion here:" and the thread link.

NOTE: Posting of sales figures is strongly discouraged and should go to the new BD Sales Figures Thread or the new HD-DVD Sales Figures Thread


This affects posts beginning with 12/23/06


please remember these forum rules


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Quote:
Originally Posted by David Bott /forum/post/0


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#377 ·

Quote:
Originally Posted by Talkstr8t /forum/post/0


...propping up a format which has been rejected by the rest of the industry greatly impedes adoption of any next-generation format by consumers...

Who gives a rip what the industry wants. How about what the consumers want? What a novel concept, eh?


Whichever format the consumers ultimately pick, the winning format will get 100% studio support and 100% CE support.
 
#378 ·

Quote:
Originally Posted by mikemorel /forum/post/0


............


BD "winning" this thing would require MS having to can the HD-DVD add on, give up HDi, lose all those VC-1 wins, incur the wrath of orphaned XBox HD DVD add on users, and get a very public black eye in the process. They have a formidable cash reserve, while expressing a keen desire to have their software be there in the digital home (which requires some involvement in the format's creation and administration by the way). Are you suggesting they would just give all that up and wait for the download market?


....................


Formidable cash reserves??? Last I checked they had over $100 Billion sitting in accounts that they don't know what to do with, and that is even after they started handing out dividends. This is like saying OPEC has decent oil reserves.


MS could, if they wanted to buy several studios. They could launch there own CE company to put out a standalone player. Hell, if they wanted to they could open a bank online and put BofA out of business, start an airline to rival Virgin, and still have enough money left over to dabble in fusion reactors.


But just because they could, doesn't mean they should. It would not make since from a business point of view. Right now they are putting their absolute best foot forward with their encoder and the Add-on. If those things do not portend an HD-DVD victory, then they cannot prop it up forever without looking bad to investors. It took Sony ten years to pull the plug on Beta, but they should have after six when then public had spoken. Those who have bought an add-on can always be given coupons to buy other MS toys, but to be honest, they don't have to. Format war or not, obsolescence is a fact of life for CE buyers, and whoever wins there will be a lot of players going into closets when this is over.



In order for HD-DVD to win they absolutely have to get more studio support. They have an absolutely gorgeous picture, but in the long run it is going to be noticeable that big titles will be missing. This may make consumers relegated to the back of the bus, but that is life. Nothing can force studios to change other than profits.
 
#379 ·

Quote:
Originally Posted by kjack /forum/post/0


The "right universal players" will not likely show up on the market until the Christmas 2007 selling season ... the ability to produce universal players will be limited by the commercialization of new dual-format drives and the successful development of player software that flawlessly supports navigation and disc swapping between the two formats. Until then, consumers will remain confident that the "right player" doesn't yet exist.

Considering how many delays the core company players have experienced delivering their one format boxes, thus far, one year seems rather short to solve all the issues with the respective formats and tackle the combo issues.


Gary
 
#380 ·

Quote:
Originally Posted by mikemorel /forum/post/0


Personally, each day I become more and more confident that there is way more going on behind the scenes than the little bit we can glean from reading between the lines on some press release or interview.

Uh yeah. I'm just surprised it's taken you this long to figure that out!!!
OF COURSE there's a whole bunch of stuff going on behind the scenes. This is why I laugh when people here make some of the statements they do, as if they are in the meetings and "goings on" behind the scenes. I was going to touch upon this earlier today in response to a post directed at me, but cancelled the post. But suffice to say that people who post as if they know what certain companies are doing or being promised behind closed doors have no idea what they are talking about. Trust me on this from experience, sometimes people within the same organization have no idea what other people/divisions in their own organization are promising both internally and externally behind closed doors. It's business. So how do 22 year olds here have ANY idea what is going on in a company at which they do not even work?

Quote:
Originally Posted by mikemorel /forum/post/0


BD "winning" this thing would require MS having to can the HD-DVD add on, give up HDi, lose all those VC-1 wins, incur the wrath of orphaned XBox HD DVD add on users, and get a very public black eye in the process. They have a formidable cash reserve, while expressing a keen desire to have their software be there in the digital home (which requires some involvement in the format's creation and administration by the way). Are you suggesting they would just give all that up and wait for the download market?

No, I think you're putting words in my mouth here. For example, I don't think VC-1 is going anywhere or would be "lost" if BD were to "win". BUT, and this is just one scenario I can think of, what if BD (or HD DVD for that matter, but there is the SPHE factor with that) were to take such a hold and get so much momentum that each and every one of the studios said, "Enough, HD DVD is dead, and we're not going to produce a double inventory anymore. BD is where the action is at. " Microsoft and Toshiba could still perhaps support the HD DVD format and not "can" the add-on, not lose VC-1 (with WB, Universal, etc), but for all practical purposes the format is toast and BD "won". Again, I'm not making a judgement either way or commenting on the likelihood of such a scenario. My point is that a "win" for either side isn't an "all or nothing" propsition for the other (or at least it doesn't have to be).


For me personally, a "win" would be the format that has an array of full featured players at multiple price points and 100% studio support with a steady flow of "buyable" titles. Again, that's my little "wonderful world, happy scenario", and i would consider THAT a "win" for the format that gets there first.
 
#381 ·

Quote:
Originally Posted by crussader /forum/post/0


Who gives a rip what the industry wants. How about what the consumers want? What a novel concept, eh?

You better give a rip what the industry wants, because if what you want is not sustainable, deliverable, and/or profitable for said industry...the industry consolidates, or there is less innovation, or there ceases to be an industry in and of itself, etc. It's a two way street my friend.
 
#382 ·

Quote:
Originally Posted by thomopolis /forum/post/0


MS could, if they wanted to buy several studios. They could launch there own CE company to put out a standalone player. Hell, if they wanted to they could open a bank online and put BofA out of business, start an airline to rival Virgin, and still have enough money left over to dabble in fusion reactors.

These are not viewed as even ancillary businesses for a software company to be in - but those that could be (say a studio, or record company) put them in a precarious position - controlling content companies as well as delivery of content. Hard to build trust and stay neutral...Sounds familiar....

Quote:
But just because they could, doesn't mean they should. It would not make since from a business point of view. Right now they are putting their absolute best foot forward with their encoder and the Add-on.

How about media centers, managed copy, cable card/Sat Card DVRs, streaming media through the home, transfer of movies to portable media (Zune) and stuff they are thinking about that we don't know about? Optical media provides the source for content until downloads get here in full force (and full bit rates). And it's impossible to believe MS will drop the HD add-on, slap a BD drive in the XBox 360 and pretend nothing happened.

Quote:
If those things do not portend an HD-DVD victory, then they cannot prop it up forever without looking bad to investors.

But can Sony stick it out if they only control 1/2 the optical video market after 3 years? The first year will be extremely difficult for them financially. If you look at the BD MPEG-LA group (which hasn't decided royalty shares from the format yet) that's quite a group that has to split royalties somehow and yet stay happy. And that doesn't include Sun Microsystems, et. al. Is there really that much money to be had in royalties when you have only 1/2 a market to split up (and a format war forcing prices down and killing profits)?


Wouldn't you agree that the investment has been much greater thus far on the BD side? What do they really have to show for their efforts? I'm not even sure that the PS3 launch even gave them lead in players at this point.
 
#383 ·

Quote:
Because Toshiba and Microsoft propping up a format which has been rejected by the rest of the industry greatly impedes adoption of any next-generation format by consumers.

What about the fact that Sony and it's crew is propping up a format which was rejected by the very group who more or less oversees the DVD format? That hasn't impeded adoption of a next-generation format?


So now it's HD DVD's fault that Blu-ray isn't taking off yet?


Quote:
May the best format win.

Still don't understand why one format has to "win". I'm betting they can both survive and all of us on both sides with our various players can enjoy our movies. Not you specifically Anthony, but it still amazes me how much the BD crowd cares about the destruction of HD DVD, as if it ran over their dogs one by one.
 
#384 ·

Quote:
Originally Posted by thomopolis /forum/post/0


Formidable cash reserves??? Last I checked they had over $100 Billion sitting in accounts that they don't know what to do with, and that is even after they started handing out dividends. This is like saying OPEC has decent oil reserves.


MS could, if they wanted to buy several studios. They could launch there own CE company to put out a standalone player. Hell, if they wanted to they could open a bank online and put BofA out of business, start an airline to rival Virgin, and still have enough money left over to dabble in fusion reactors.


But just because they could, doesn't mean they should. It would not make since from a business point of view. Right now they are putting their absolute best foot forward with their encoder and the Add-on. If those things do not portend an HD-DVD victory, then they cannot prop it up forever without looking bad to investors. It took Sony ten years to pull the plug on Beta, but they should have after six when then public had spoken. Those who have bought an add-on can always be given coupons to buy other MS toys, but to be honest, they don't have to. Format war or not, obsolescence is a fact of life for CE buyers, and whoever wins there will be a lot of players going into closets when this is over.


In order for HD-DVD to win they absolutely have to get more studio support. They have an absolutely gorgeous picture, but in the long run it is going to be noticeable that big titles will be missing. This may make consumers relegated to the back of the bus, but that is life. Nothing can force studios to change other than profits.

Great post Thomopolis. I'll add my two cents on a couple of items. Microsoft didn't enter this market by accident. This is something they've been building toward since the original Xbox release. I've never seen Microsoft back down from a fight, and I believe they understand that the opportunity is here and now. So a strategic retreat seems unlikely in this scenario. A deeper investment would be less surprising. These are just my opinions as a long time watcher of the company.


I believe that Kjack has touched on a point I've made earlier. I expect universal players by Christmas '07. I don't believe either format will score a knockout punch or throw in the towel between now and Christams '07. Once universal players ship, the entire equation changes.
 
#385 ·

Quote:
Originally Posted by mikemorel /forum/post/0


How about media centers, managed copy, cable card/Sat Card DVRs, streaming media through the home, transfer of movies to portable media (Zune) and stuff they are thinking about that we don't know about? Optical media provides the source for content until downloads get here in full force (and full bit rates).

Every time I read a prediction like this, I wonder who is going to pay for what I guess is about a $500 billion dollar investment to make it happen. If you look at what has already been spent and what we have got (not much), I don't think anyone is going to spend that amount of money for movie downloads for a industry that only generates about $27 billion gross per year. The numbers just don't add up.


Take a look at some of the numbers in this article..
Quote:
The study asserts that the cable operators have pumped the majority of their free cash flow into the industry's $75 billion investment to upgrade its infrastructure and launch advanced broadband services. Consumer acceptance of these advanced services is evidenced by the sale of more than 34 million units of digital video, high-speed Internet and cable telephone services, the study says.
http://www.danielsonline.com/news/2003/bortz_study.html


b2b
 
#386 ·
Well if MS is now making $75 for every Xbox sold and Sony is losing @250 for every PS3 sold, then it doesn't take a lot of units for that cashflow differential to add up.
 
#387 ·

Quote:
Originally Posted by b2bonez /forum/post/0


Every time I read a prediction like this, I wonder who is going to pay for what I guess is about a $500 billion dollar investment to make it happen. If you look at what has already been spent and what we have got (not much), I don't think anyone is going to spend that amount of money for movie downloads for a industry that only generates about $27 billion gross per year. The numbers just don't add up.


Take a look at some of the numbers in this article..

http://www.danielsonline.com/news/2003/bortz_study.html


b2b

This is an area I have some familiarity with. The investments are happening by multiple companies to do online movie delivery, and I would suggest that your guess as to the capital neccessary is high. We're still in the very early stages, but progress marches on unstopped.
 
#388 ·

Quote:
Originally Posted by Kosty /forum/post/0


iSuppli did the breakdown on the 1st generation players, most of us have agreed that the first generation players were sold before before cost.
Quote:
Originally Posted by AnthonyP /forum/post/0


so Kosty why do you think that it is a different story. I believe it is a bit cheaper, but they needed to cut a lot to become profitable. If it is really that much cheaper (past the brake even point) my guess they would have also cut the wholesale price (it had lower margins for retailers) and possibly maybe even cut the MRSP a bit. It is still not a soc design that G2 was supposed to be and so the price could not have dropped as some of you think. A small drop in price could even help the sales. No matter how much people like to spin, I doubt neither studios nor Toshiba are happy with the sales so far.


Everything still points to the next version being subsidized. But I guess like the previous one most HD DVDers won't admit it to themselves until the next version.

The design does not use as much silicon and the case and other components are less expensive as well as the model is expected to be produced in much larger quantities. All the G2 models share a lot of common components so the economies are increased.


The MSRP was not reduced as those price points are working at this time. The A1 sold as fast as it could be shipped, virtually by word of mouth, and so there is demand at the $499 price point still. With the Xbox 360 using the $199 price point a $199, $499 $799 pricing structure to get into HD DVD is a lot more rational than the Blu-ray $499/$599 $999 $1299 $1499 current MSRP pricing. Plus keeping the MSRP and MAP at $499 allows dealers teh flexibility to alter there pricing as market conditions dictate. No need to lower the MSRP if dealers can sell them at that point.
Quote:
No matter how much people like to spin, I doubt neither studios nor Toshiba are happy with the sales so far.

Untrue. Toshiba and the studios probably are very happy with the HD A1 and HD XA1 sales and attach rates. They've shipped and sold virtually all production and demand has exceeded supply and the attach rates are higher than SD DVD players. Its production constrained, not demand. The success of the HD A1 is in direct comparison to the failure of the Samsung. Its just that the volumes are still too small for major changes. Everyone is probably waiting for after XMas and for the blu-diode shortages to ease.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Kosty /forum/post/0


But thats really history now as they are all shipped and off Toshiba's books now Now a lot depends on how quicky they can ramp up the second generation production..
Quote:
Originally Posted by Esox50 /forum/post/0


Understood and agreed. I was just curious in light of your comments where you mentioned they'd probably break even on the 2G A2, and actually make some money on the XA2....


... So, this time around, I will not jump in until 40 movies I'd consider "immediate purchase with long term replay value" are available on either format. That's going to be an expensive day!!!

I have already reached that point with HD DVD as there are more than 40 movies there I want to own. Soon it will get that way with Blu-ray for me also.


Once more movies are on the street in each format. content becomes less of an issue. After all an average person can't even watch 100 movies in a year. Once there's more than that available that he likes, then thats a critical mass of content.
 
#389 ·
#390 ·

Quote:
Originally Posted by Kosty /forum/post/0


Untrue. Toshiba and the studios probably are very happy with the HD A1 and HD XA1 sales and attach rates. They've shipped and sold virtually all production and demand has exceeded supply and the attach rates are higher than SD DVD players. Its production constrained, not demand. The success of the HD A1 is in direct comparison to the failure of the Samsung. Its just that the volumes are still too small for major changes. Everyone is probably waiting for after XMas and for the blu-diode shortages to ease.

Well you can put a happy face on it all you want, but 70,000 players at half the price of the competition isn't an earth shattering number. In the single month of Oct. 1997 DVD sold 56,407 players. That was "early adopter" numbers too. Neither HD-DVD or BD is generating a lot of interest with the public yet.


b2b
 
#391 ·

Quote:
Originally Posted by b2bonez /forum/post/0


Getting the general public to buy-in is going to be the trick and one that the PS3 is trying to do.

(1)There is more than one way to skin a cat and (2) never take on a competitor head on based on price.


If I were a BD CE company, my thought would be let HD-DVD be sold based on it's low price to the current HDTV owners. It's doing a great job at that.


I would target new HDTV buyers, where the real growth is, offering my BD player with their new purchase of my HDTV, which is were the real money is probably made. Bigger the HDTV, the deeper the player discount. Big enough HDTV, get it for free... so average effective price may be $500 without advertising it. Plus consumer feels like they are getting a great deal. Win-win.


The BD player could then easily be added inside next year's networked HDTVs for $150 or so incremental cost. Every new BD HDTV sold is then also a new BD player sold, which would be a very large volume ramp if most BD CE companies did this.


Why treat players a stand-alone products that have to battle it out in the marketplace based solely on features and price?
 
#392 ·

Quote:
Originally Posted by kjack /forum/post/0


(1)There is more than one way to skin a cat and (2) never take on a competitor head on based on price.


If I were a BD CE company, my thought would be let HD-DVD be sold based on it's low price to the current HDTV owners. It's doing a great job at that.


I would target new HDTV buyers, where the real growth is, offering my BD player with their new purchase of my HDTV, which is were the real money is probably made. Bigger the HDTV, the deeper the player discount. Big enough HDTV, get it for free... so average effective price may be $500 without advertising it. Plus consumer feels like they are getting a great deal. Win-win.

The BD player could then easily be added inside next year's networked HDTVs for $150 or so incremental cost. Every new BD HDTV sold is then also a new BD player sold, which would be a very large volume ramp if most BD CE companies did this.


Why treat players a stand-alone products that have to battle it out in the marketplace based solely on features and price?

Interesting thoughts... I'm sure Sigma has some silicon hot off the foundry just waiting to fill that need..



Now that analog TV is on it's death bed and digital is going to turn them into fracking computers anyway, they might as well be really slick units with built in BD drives and a network connection.


Oh, the joys of Java in the livingroom .....



b2b
 
#393 ·
Hey, maybe the Thanksgiving thing is actually working. Seems things are nicer around here now.


My happiness about HD DVD:


* Excellent software launch! The quality we expected with very few exceptions!

* The above put crappy Blu-ray releases in a really bad light, thank goodness!

* Cheap players. Good move for consumers by Toshiba! :)

* Excellent support from Universal, nice to have a studio really serious about HD!

* Serenity is out on HD DVD..
(Now I just need a player...)
 
#395 ·
Not totally related, but hopefully you'll like it:

Score an X-Box 360 for $100

Quote:
Starting tomorrow [for today] at 11AM PST, keep your fingers poised over your keyboard and be ready to swoop in and buy it, even if it means tearing yourself away from Aunt Mary's sweet potato pie. They'll be offering up 1,000 of these suckers, but you must wait until Thursday at 11AM (again, Pacific time, folks) and buy it via the Amazon Customers Vote Page in order to receive the discount, not the regular product page.


Remember that Amazon had the Wii go on sale on Sunday and it sold out in one minute, so make sure you're properly adrenalized before this sale. We recommend doing some strong finger workouts tonight in preparation.
 
#396 ·
I hate TV's with integrated players. Nightmare if you ever need work done on just the player.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Kosty /forum/post/0


Well if MS is now making $75 for every Xbox sold and Sony is losing @250 for every PS3 sold, then it doesn't take a lot of units for that cashflow differential to add up.

To be fair, they still have make up for when they were losing money on the 360 (which was at launch and for most of the year). At least according to the people who say the PS3 is losing that much money now.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Kosty /forum/post/0


The MSRP was not reduced as those price points are working at this time. The A1 sold as fast as it could be shipped, virtually by word of mouth, and so there is demand at the $499 price point still. With the Xbox 360 using the $199 price point a $199, $499 $799 pricing structure to get into HD DVD is a lot more rational than the Blu-ray $499/$599 $999 $1299 $1499 current MSRP pricing.

$199? You need to include the price of the 360 itself for this to be apples to apples with the $499/$599 (PS3) BD comparison. And the days of $799 are done for HD-DVD since HD-XA1's are going for ~$500 at the few places they have them left and there are no A1's left. Of course the A2 will pick up the $499 slot, but you should include the $999 XA2... when these two are finally up for sale that is.
 
#397 ·

Quote:
Originally Posted by Esox50 /forum/post/0


Ha! You caught me alluding to this in my initial post.




Well, let's face it though, "better" is defined by each person. To some people, more content is "better". To others, players that are actually responsive is "better". The list could go on and on. So, I don't buy the blanket statement that BD should deliver "more" because it costs twice as much (if you exclude the PS3). Right now, for some people it does deliver "more" content, more players, and more disc space?!?!?!? Is that better? The point is that both formats are capable of delivering 1920x1080 w/ lossless audio and added value content.

Fair point - but I'd add that most folks will only be buying one player, and so "having lots of players" is not a feature/benefit unless that enables them to make a great player selection at a good price.


The A2, at the low end, offers a great price, and beats almost all of the (more expensive) bluray players on functionality and features - and gives you TruHD, DD+ and DTS-HD decoding.


At the "high end", the XA2 beats every single one of the bluray players without exception, on functionality and features, giving 1080p (including, reportedly, 1080p24), deep color, in-player calibration, DTS-HD, DD+ and TRuHD decoding - all at a price lower than any of the "high end" bluray players.


And I'd remind everyone that HD DVD releases (including preorders "in the pipe") are at about 150, while BD releases are at about 102 - so HD DVD offers more content at this time.


Which leaves the only BD potential advantage as 50 gig discs - which only make up a small portion of BD releases, since most are at 25 Gig.
 
#398 ·

Quote:
Originally Posted by kjack /forum/post/0


The BD player could then easily be added inside next year's networked HDTVs for $150 or so incremental cost. Every new BD HDTV sold is then also a new BD player sold, which would be a very large volume ramp if most BD CE companies did this.

Yes, that would be great for Sigma!
Good marketing Keith!



Trouble is, few people actually like to buy decent sets with built-in standard DVD players, let alone a risky HD format like Bluray.


The only sets that have successfully sold with built-in DVDs have been the cheapo combo players for the kitchen or dorm, which are so cheap that they would neither support HD panels, nor an extra $150 in maufacturing cost to add the drive...
 
#399 ·
Head-to-head review of the PS3's Blu-ray capabilities and the HD DVD add-on for the Xbox 360 on highdefdigest .
 
#400 ·

Quote:
Originally Posted by rdjam /forum/post/0


Fair point - but I'd add that most folks will only be buying one player, and so "having lots of players" is not a feature/benefit unless that enables them to make a great player selection at a good price.

True. But when the customer gets to the store, he can either buy Toshiba or Sony, Pioneer, Panasonic, Samsung, Philips, PS3. (Ok, Ok, not TODAY.) Some customers might ask: "Why only Toshiba?" Which is then followed up with "What are the differences?" "Oh, no Disney, Fox, Sony?"

Quote:
Originally Posted by rdjam /forum/post/0


The A2, at the low end, offers a great price, and beats almost all of the (more expensive) bluray players - and gives you TruHD, DD+ and DTS-HD decoding.

Beats on price, yes, but do we know it'll beat them on the rest?

Quote:
Originally Posted by rdjam /forum/post/0


At the "high end", the XA2 beats every single one of the bluray players without exception, giving 1080p (including, reportedly, 1080p24), deep color, in-player calibration, DTS-HD, DD+ and TRuHD decoding - all at a price lower than any of the "high end" bluray players.

Reportedly? Or for a fact? Do we know? We don't know for sure, do we? Again, should we not wait for actual reviews?

Quote:
Originally Posted by rdjam /forum/post/0


And I'd remind everyone that HD DVD releases (including preorders "in the pipe") are at about 150, while BD releases are at about 102 - so HD DVD offers more content at this time.

With the emphasis on "at this time." And I'd remind everyone that HD DVD had a "small" head start and we're still less than a year into the new formats. Lets count again in 6 months.

Quote:
Originally Posted by rdjam /forum/post/0


Which leaves the only BD potential advantage as 50 gig discs - which only make up a small portion of BD releases, since most are at 25 Gig.

The only BD potential advantage? Should you not mention Fox, Sony, Buena Vista etc.? Higher bandwidth as extras gets more advanced with time? I would.
 
#401 ·

Quote:
Originally Posted by markrubin /forum/post/0


Peace


may I propose an AVS Cease Fire in the format battles in celebration of Thanksgiving


this should be a celebration of Thanks for many things including the HD optical disc, regardless of the format battle


Happy Thanksgiving
 
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