Originally Posted by b2bonez
Well if you look real close a the chart, you will see that almost every console was introduced right before the holiday season showing a small spike. It is the year after introduction and that years holiday season that really show the potential sales curves.
The best curve on the chart is the PS2 and the only one that crosses the #2 seller (PS). The PS2 is just a phenomenal seller and if people keep buying it, why should Sony quit making it ? It is outselling the Xb360 and combined PS2 + PS3 sales next year will still put Sony at the top of the heap.
Ok b2b, I finally got some time to sit down and review your chart. First of all, these aren't charts of sales volume, but installed base. At least in my line of work, when we discuss sales curves, they are sales volume curves, not installed base.
That aside, yes, it takes time for a new product to build installed base, and yes the PS2 built installed base quickly. So here are some observations on the chart. There is only one historical example of a console getting into the market ahead of the curve, building up an installed base of millions of units and then loosing to a challenger that came to market a year later. That product was the Dreamcast and it lost to the PS2.
The general rule is that when a console can get to market before its generation of competitors and reach the 10 Million installed base level first, it goes on to rule that generation.
Sega had a disaster with the Saturn, alienated EA and was on the ropes financially when they were selling Dreamcast. So yes, the PS2 came to market and within 9 months had surpassed the installed base of the Dreamcast. The PS2 also had a 1 year lead on the Xbox and Gamecube and made it to the 10 million mark before those consoles.
Two questions for you...do you believe the PS3 has any chance of passing the Xbox360 installed base within 9 months of its launch? Do you believe the PS3 has any chance of getting to a 10 million unit installed base before the Xbox360?
BTW, I never said Sony should quit making the PS2, it's generating a profit after all. My point was that I've never seen a console maker run tv spots for their old console after the launch of their new console. There is only one reason for this, Sony doesn't have PS3s to sell. If they did, every tv spot from Sony games would be about the PS3.