Originally Posted by namechamps
AACS was never going to stop piracy. Windows Activation doesn't stop piracy. They both simply make life difficult.
AACS LA should inspect the software players and when they are able to duplicate the issue then they revoke the players. Once the players are revoked new movies will only play on new players, plus discs will include the player keys in the host revoked list. Once one of the flawed players reads a disc that has it listed on a host revoked list it will not be able to playback anything. The user will be forced to upgrade to new version which is not flawed. Plus the studios can re-release the current titles with newer volume keys and listing the flawed software players in the revoked host key list.
Fast Forward a few months. Multiple copies of movies each with incompatible keys. Sure the serenity key is on the web but is it the same version of serenity that you have. For hackers if they put the wrong disc in the drive the host revocation system will prevent the flawed software from running. Upgrading to the new version of powerdvd or windvd won't affect legitimate users but it will prevent stealing future and even current titles.
See how confusing of a mess it creates? Now compare that to CSS where one piece of software can make a perfect copy of every disc every made and every disc in the future. The AACS flaw relies on finding not just this exploit but finding a future exploit once this hole is closed. Combine that with the ability to release the movie with multiple keys and the ability for future versions of older movies to kill the flawed software and you have a system that only the diehard will try to hack.
I think that you may not be seeing the forest (pirating) cause you're too close to the trees (AACS key revocation procedure)
The path you are going down is a demonstration of how the studios expect the system to work in the real world. Yes, new HD-DVD's with new keys will disallow older versions of software players and hacked hardware players from playing them. I'm not even going to go down the path of how unbelievably complex that entire process is going to get once they start doing it... Suffice it to say that it's a wonder anyone can reliably watch any HD content as it is, let alone with content providers intentionally trying to shut viewers down. Go read up on the D* HR20 thread over at dbstalk.com to see what I mean here.
But I digress from what I think the "forest" part you are missing is. There is, apparently right now (don't know for sure cause I don't use the software), a ripped copy of the Serenity movie out on one of the torrent systems. It's there, and you can get it right now. It's probably been done thousands of times as you read this....
Now, you can start telling me how expensive it is to store those 19GB on a hard drive, which is about $6.00 today, $3.00 next year and $1.00 the year after that. And you can also tell me how expensive blank HD-DVDR's are, $19.00 today, $8.00 next year and $4.00 in 2009, you get the idea. And you can also tell me about how really hard it is for someone to burn this torrent copy of a HD-DVD onto a HD-DVDR and play it on a player of some kind. And this I believe hasn't actually been done yet. But, there are *hundreds* of people trying to do this cause thats what they do. Then someone will write a nice GUI front end just like was done for DeCSS, and about 1 year from now we are at the point where a moderately computer savvy J6P can roll his own, for less than the cost of buying the product at retail.
I'm not saying that I think it's right, I don't condone piracy and don't do it myself. But for goodness sake, theres entire web sites just dedicated to doing it.
Bottom line is that, from my perspective at least, the content distributors are making things pretty complex. Just look at the key revocation and all the problems that is going to cause. J6P goes and buys a player, and one fine day it stops playing all his new HD-DVD's. I guarantee that is going to happen, simply because anything that complex is going to be absolutely riddled with problems and unforeseen issues. I think that is going to be more of a problem for the long term viability of HD-DVD and Blu-Ray than rampant piracy. This coupled with things like the newly released "Joost" where other content providers can get in the game, even the HD game though not right now, and I think the people who are providing the current HD content are going to find that the market for such content isn't going to be as great as they had hoped. They will blame the pirates, and come up with AACS-2, which will increase the complexity of the anti-piracy system by a couple orders of magnitude. When what it boils down to is that their greed is what will have doomed them from the beginning.