Wall Street Journal Article with Standalone numbers - AVS Forum
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post #1 of 216 Old 01-04-2007, 04:15 PM - Thread Starter
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BD: 25,000 players sold.
HD-DVD: 120,000 players sold (not counting the 150,000 addons).

That's how important the PS3 is.

Someone can try and find a link for the article, but I read the printed version and don't have time to find a link.
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post #2 of 216 Old 01-04-2007, 04:21 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by tsd2005 View Post

BD: 25,000 players sold.
HD-DVD: 120,000 players sold (not counting the 150,000 addons).

That's how important the PS3 is.

If those numbers are right and your 1.5:1 lead in software sales for HD DVD for December is right, then it does support that the PS3 is very important. Especially if it started the month of December higher than 1.5:1 and ended up lower on a run rate level.

Your numbers end up at 270,000 vs 25,000 without the PS3, so there is pretty much no way that BD software sales could be even close without the PS3 being significant. If the ratio of players in use was 1.5:1 in HD DVD's favor (I know it doesn't have to be for the software ratio to be there, but this is just an example), then that would mean 155,000 PS3s in use as players. Which would be 20% if the total PS3 count was 775,000.

BTW: I guess I better check. Were those US numbers? That is what I was going by.

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post #3 of 216 Old 01-04-2007, 04:26 PM
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I bet it's at least that. My thoughts are a lot of PS3 were sold with the direct intention of using it as a Blu-ray player and not a gaming machine - a lot more than people think.

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post #4 of 216 Old 01-04-2007, 04:29 PM
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Yeah Darin that's US only... and now there are reports that those numbers might be lower than in actuality anyway.

But if those BD standalone sales are real, then yeah... PS3 is the crucial element. I mean it was anyway, but...

In any event, it will be interesting to see what CES brings. I wouldn't be surprised if the majority of that 25,000 wasn't in recent months, as prices on certain players have come down. Hopefully CES brings a number of lower priced standalones to the table.
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post #5 of 216 Old 01-04-2007, 04:43 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by tsd2005 View Post

Someone can try and find a link for the article, but I read the printed version and don't have time to find a link.

I don't think you can get at WSJ articles anywhere without a subscription. Here's the relevant passage from the article:

About 695,000 consumers own either a Blu-ray or an HD-DVD player, according to Tom Adams of Adams Media Research in Carmel, Calif. But only about 25,000 have purchased stand-alone Blu-ray players. Another 400,000 consumers have Blu-ray because they bought a Sony PS3 game console. Meanwhile, about 120,000 or so have a stand-alone HD-DVD player while about 150,000 have an HD-DVD upgrade kit for their Xbox 360 game consoles, Mr. Adams says. He adds that those numbers are well in excess of the 300,000 DVD-player sales in 1997, when that technology rolled out.

Some consumers have dodged high-definition players because they already own top-of-the-line DVD players that add higher resolution onto regular DVDs so they look crisper on HDTV sets. For those viewers, there might not be much advantage to the newer technologies.

San Francisco computer consultant Tyler Dikman, for example, owns a high-end Denon 3910 DVD player that he uses with a 60-inch Sony Grand Wega rear-projection HDTV set. Mr. Dikman had heard the buzz about next-generation DVDs for a couple of years and shelled out $1,000 for a Sony Blu-ray player in November. After watching movies like Paramount Pictures' "Mission Impossible III" and Columbia Pictures' "The Fifth Element" on the new player, he decided that, although the text was crisper on subtitles and there were fewer glitches like blurring, overall the Blu-ray movies didn't look much better than regular DVDs on his Denon player. The Sony player also wouldn't play his audio CDs. He took it back to a Best Buy Co. store last month.

"I was waiting for this night-and-day difference, and I don't feel I got it," says Mr. Dikman, who says he still plans to buy a high-definition DVD player once the players have overcome snafus like the CD issue. Sony says there may be changes in future models, and overall, consumers have responded favorably to the product. "Of course, performance is affected by several factors, including what other components are included in the home theater system, how they are connected to one another and how the content was encoded," a Sony spokesman says.


Anyone who wants to read the whole thing has to go out and buy the paper.
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post #6 of 216 Old 01-04-2007, 04:56 PM
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Wow! If these numbers are indeed accurate, then Blu-Ray sales are even more pathetic than I thought. Before the Sony, Panasonic or Pioneer BD players had launched, it was speculated that 10,000 Samsung players had been sold (versus 70,000 Toshiba players) -- and this was months ago! If only another 10,000 players have sold since that time, then that is certainly pathetic.

So the entire hope for the format is a videogame console?!? Who's the genius behind the Blu-Ray launch again? Does anybody doubt that without their exclusive studios BD would have already been an afterthought? It looks to me like the Blu-Ray format could go down in history as the single-biggest bust in consumer electronics history! Sony better PRAY that LG brings the dual-format player to market with sales like these...
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post #7 of 216 Old 01-04-2007, 04:58 PM
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ooOoo... some numbers.

I think it'll be good to be able to track how these pan out in the coming months. A new toy invariably comes with desire to purchase some software to take advantage of it... if the experience is good, then more sales to be had, if they are not overwhelmed, then it will slow down... e.g. UMD.

Given there weren't many releases coming up to Christmas 2006, and many more New BD owners... it's only natural that BD software sales surge. If HD-DVD software releases don't start enticing owners to continue to buy software and BD titles start giving lots to choose from, the trend will continue and the gap will grow smaller. BD made a good showing this holiday despite PS3 falling short of shipments. HD-DVD has to have more up its sleeves.

Personally I do hope the HD-DVD addon drive comes to Australia soon. I'll buy it anyway even if LG come out with a dual reader drive in March. If anyone brings a PC BD/HD-DVD ROM drive to the party, then I'll look into upgrading my HTPC for the task. It'll be good to be format neutral. Then there is the PS3... a few games have me wanting to get the console... (MGS4, GT5, Ninja Gaiden Sigma) but I'll probably save those funds for the things I can make time for.. namely Movies.

Cheers...
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post #8 of 216 Old 01-04-2007, 04:59 PM
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The official US numbers on PS3 are at the 850,000 mark, total worldwide, 1.18 million
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post #9 of 216 Old 01-04-2007, 05:02 PM
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Okay then - so remind me again why we need to create new methods to allow the fumbling format to surivive? Maybe all Warner really wants/sees with TotalHD is another way to make money and not really the benevolent, necessary solution that is needed?

Let BD be used for great PS3 game discs and PC storage. God bless them on those two fronts. But give HD DVD the rightful movie crown that they've earned as an underdog who has apparently (based on these numbers) delivered to the satisfaction of the majority of movie-only lovers from day 1.

Given this data - IMO, if the studios were smart/fair then they would just pick HD DVD now as the single format of choice and let us all live forever in high-def peace.

Anything else will just prolong things, add confusion, and make all average people naseous.
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post #10 of 216 Old 01-04-2007, 05:06 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by darinp2 View Post

If those numbers are right and your 1.5:1 lead in software sales for HD DVD for December is right, then it does support that the PS3 is very important. Especially if it started the month of December higher than 1.5:1 and ended up lower on a run rate level.

Your numbers end up at 270,000 vs 25,000 without the PS3, so there is pretty much no way that BD software sales could be even close without the PS3 being significant. If the ratio of players in use was 1.5:1 in HD DVD's favor (I know it doesn't have to be for the software ratio to be there, but this is just an example), then that would mean 155,000 PS3s in use as players. Which would be 20% if the total PS3 count was 775,000.

BTW: I guess I better check. Were those US numbers? That is what I was going by.

--Darin

You know, it could also mean that HD DVD movie disc sales numbers were much higher than Blu-ray and we don't know yet.

If the numbers are 270,000 versus 25,000 + 10% of the PS3 say 750,000 number that would equate to 270,000 versus 25% + 75,000 PS3 Blu-ray watchers.

But if only 10% of the PS3 owners are watching Blu-ray, and that's the only Blu-ray player under $699, then thats trouble for Blu-ray. If 10% is high, then even more so. 10% of say 4 million is only 400,000 which would put Blu-ray at a disadvantage.

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post #11 of 216 Old 01-04-2007, 05:06 PM
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Oh and the official numbers on the addon are only 42,000 units as well. maybe another 20 since then, but they've been shelf sitting for 3-4 weeks now and not moving in most venues.

Quote:


Let BD be used for great PS3 game discs and PC storage. God bless them on those two fronts. But give HD DVD the rightful movie crown that they've earned as an underdog who has apparently (based on these numbers) delivered to the satisfaction of the majority of movie-only lovers from day 1.

Earned? Blu-Ray is up on it 5-1 in decks, 5-1 in exclusive studios(unlikely to change at CES either), and all the compression and production problems seem to have been ironed out. Regardless of how you try to spin it, every PS3 can play BR out of the box, and is therefore counted.
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post #12 of 216 Old 01-04-2007, 05:11 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by tsd2005 View Post

BD: 25,000 players sold.
HD-DVD: 120,000 players sold (not counting the 150,000 addons).

That's how important the PS3 is.

Someone can try and find a link for the article, but I read the printed version and don't have time to find a link.

25K BD standalone sold! Boy would Samsung, LG, Panasonic be pissed with Sony's PS3. This BD cannabalization by PS3 is probably one of the factor LG is going universal.....
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post #13 of 216 Old 01-04-2007, 05:12 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by WickyWoo View Post

Oh and the official numbers on the addon are only 42,000 units as well. maybe another 20 since then, but they've been shelf sitting for 3-4 weeks now and not moving in most venues.

Earned? Blu-Ray is up on it 5-1 in decks, 5-1 in exclusive studios(unlikely to change at CES either), and all the compression and production problems seem to have been ironed out. Regardless of how you try to spin it, every PS3 can play BR out of the box, and is therefore counted.

Do you take the time to read the posts above?

42000 was weeks ago.

This analyst has a WAG at 150,000 Xbox add ons. And 125,000 HD DVD standalones. versus 25,000 stand alone Blu-ray players and whatever percentage of PS3 owners you want to choose that will buy Blu-ray movies.

If you close your eyes and stick your fingers in you ears, you not only won't see things you don't like, you woun't be able to hear them as well.

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post #14 of 216 Old 01-04-2007, 05:14 PM
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Notice anytime a mainstream press article expresses a consumers disapointment a Blu-ray player or PS3 is always mentioned as the item that has the disapointing results?

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post #15 of 216 Old 01-04-2007, 05:15 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by tsd2005 View Post

BD: 25,000 players sold.
HD-DVD: 120,000 players sold (not counting the 150,000 addons).

That's how important the PS3 is.

Someone can try and find a link for the article, but I read the printed version and don't have time to find a link.

This has confirmed what I have suspected all along. HD DVD stand alone players have way outsold BD stand alone players. With out numbers it would also be reasonable to assume HD DVD software has outsold BD software 5:1. I would assume the addons equal the number of PS3 owners that buy BDs.

looks like thedvdwars.com did act as microcosm.
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post #16 of 216 Old 01-04-2007, 05:17 PM
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400,000 PS3's was weeks ago also though. Tom Adams - the analyst in question - may or may not know what he is talking about... we just don't know. He could very well be pulling all of his information from public sources that we ourselves have been discussing on these boards over the last couple of months.

Hopefully soon, we get some add-on sales numbers from NPD or someone else.
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post #17 of 216 Old 01-04-2007, 05:19 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by vancouver View Post

This has confirmed what I have suspected all along. HD DVD stand alone players have way outsold BD stand alone players. With out numbers it would also be reasonable to assume HD DVD software has outsold BD software 5:1. I would assume the addons equal the number of PS3 owners that buy BDs.

looks like thedvdwars.com did act as microcosm.

Good points.
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post #18 of 216 Old 01-04-2007, 05:22 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Kosty View Post

You know, it could also mean that HD DVD movie disc sales numbers were much higher than Blu-ray and we don't know yet.

If the numbers are 270,000 versus 25,000 + 10% of the PS3 say 750,000 number that would equate to 270,000 versus 25% + 75,000 PS3 Blu-ray watchers.

But if only 10% of the PS3 owners are watching Blu-ray, and that's the only Blu-ray player under $699, then thats trouble for Blu-ray. If 10% is high, then even more so. 10% of say 4 million is only 400,000 which would put Blu-ray at a disadvantage.

Using your 10% number it would be about 270,000 vs 100,000. Do you believe HD DVD movie disc sales killed Blu-ray movie disc sales at the end of December and now in a way that a 2.7:1 player in use advantage would support? And if 10% is high, then the player advantage would be even more than 2.7:1 there.

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post #19 of 216 Old 01-04-2007, 05:23 PM
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From 09-23-06
http://www.avsforum.com/avs-vb/showt...&&#post8499102

Quote:


Quote:


Originally Posted by b2bonez

HD-DVD has been selling around 8,300 players per month, they will be lucky to double or triple that rate for the holidays. b2b


So you are predicting 16,000 to 25,000 for the month of December? I predict it will be far higher. In other words, over 83,000. I'll bookmark this page so we'll see who's right... (if the info is ever publicly released.)

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post #20 of 216 Old 01-04-2007, 05:25 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by skogan View Post

From 09-23-06
http://www.avsforum.com/avs-vb/showt...&&#post8499102

Good one. As far as predictions, wasn't there a poll where people predicted the number of HD DVD players total? I seem to recall I guessed something like 300k-350k, which looks like it was too high. Might not have been a poll though.

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post #21 of 216 Old 01-04-2007, 05:26 PM
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Goes to show, HD DVD is indeed the consumer's format of choice.

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post #22 of 216 Old 01-04-2007, 05:27 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by vancouver View Post

This has confirmed what I have suspected all along. HD DVD stand alone players have way outsold BD stand alone players.


Indeed. And this is despite the marketing onslaught of Blu-Ray, the exclusive studio support, the favoritism displayed at every major retailer in the country, the total lack of support from CC, and the end-cap domination at BB! Care to guess how long Blu-Ray would have lasted without any of these advantages?
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post #23 of 216 Old 01-04-2007, 05:32 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by tsd2005 View Post

BD: 25,000 players sold.
HD-DVD: 120,000 players sold (not counting the 150,000 addons).

That's how important the PS3 is.

Someone can try and find a link for the article, but I read the printed version and don't have time to find a link.

I wonder if anyone will be big enough to apologize to you after calling you a liar about the numbers your reps gave to you? Sounds like you were right on. I've heard some choice words in the last month when I predicted year end sales of the 360 drive to be around 150-250K world wide.

I actually thought there were more standalone BD players sold by now. Wow, that is really suprising. Then again, $1K is alot to spend on a player especially when the PS3 is available (sorta). This is going to be an interesting year.

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post #24 of 216 Old 01-04-2007, 05:33 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by krinkle View Post

FIXED

"Wall Street Journal Article with Standalone numbers"
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post #25 of 216 Old 01-04-2007, 05:33 PM
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"
BD: 25,000 players sold.
HD-DVD: 120,000 players sold (not counting the 150,000 addons).
"

I'm confused by some of the comments here I guess. Isn't 25,000 vs 120,000 about the same rate per month. Given the large price differential in stand-alones, I was surprised these numbers were so close per month; Some of the comments above though have made me re-think I must have something wrong....

ken
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post #26 of 216 Old 01-04-2007, 05:39 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by b.greenway View Post

"Wall Street Journal Article with Standalone numbers"

this is extremely misleading as many people have bought the PS3 as their standalone (like me). many of those PS3s need to be counted.

total players makes more sense

blu-ray ~~ 925,000
hd-dvd ~~ 270,000

and please don't say gamers don't buy movies lol, just look at DVDwars since PS3 was released
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post #27 of 216 Old 01-04-2007, 05:39 PM
 
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Blu-Ray already ahead, I see, after starting later.

This appears to be the whole article, in the Pittsburgh Post Gazette:

http://www.post-gazette.com/pg/07004/751258-96.stm
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post #28 of 216 Old 01-04-2007, 05:47 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by krinkle View Post

this is extremely misleading as many people have bought the PS3 as their standalone (like me). many of those PS3s need to be counted.

total players makes more sense

blu-ray ~~ 925,000
hd-dvd ~~ 270,000

and please don't say gamers don't buy movies lol, just look at DVDwars since PS3 was released

I bought a PS3 as a BD player too, but I would never presume to know how many people are also using in that capacity. The only way answer that question is to wait on some BD software sales figures. You can be sure that, where the HD DVD numbers are concerned that 100% will be used to watch movies. We'll see.

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post #29 of 216 Old 01-04-2007, 05:47 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by krinkle View Post

this is extremely misleading as many people have bought the PS3 as their standalone (like me). many of those PS3s need to be counted.

total players makes more sense

blu-ray ~~ 925,000
hd-dvd ~~ 270,000

and please don't say gamers don't buy movies lol, just look at DVDwars since PS3 was released

We're all big boys and girls and know what stand-alone player means. And I'm one of those people (who bought a PS3 as a stand-alone) you referred to. I have looked at thedvdwars.com, looks like that spike from yesterday has cooled somewhat, check the last 7 days.
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post #30 of 216 Old 01-04-2007, 05:47 PM
 
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It's absolutely hilarious that HD-DVD supporters want to compare cheaper HD-DVD standalone player sales against much more expensive BD "standalone" player sales while not counting the highest volume selling high def player in the world!

Amazing.
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