HD-DVD: What happened?????? - Page 3 - AVS Forum
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post #61 of 191 Old 01-09-2007, 11:32 AM
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Originally Posted by mobius View Post


Besides that business/negotiations don't stop after CES you know. On top of that, if LG's dual format player gets *any* traction, then in all liklihood further iterations will have no issue with HDi. This whole situation is simply too fluid to be making such stark predictions IMO.

No $1200 player is getting traction, especially when it's a Goldstar.
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post #62 of 191 Old 01-09-2007, 11:35 AM
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Originally Posted by trmas View Post

They want ONE format

If that were true, they could've had that wish fulfilled without resorting to this game. The war should be given to the one doing the best job, and that is HD DVD. Their only negatives are that other companies want a bigger piece, its certainly not in terms of the tech or the delivered product.

***Warning*** Do not look into laser with remaining eye!!
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post #63 of 191 Old 01-09-2007, 11:42 AM
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This is a disappointing CES, I just don't understand where is Dreamworks? Where is the release dates? Where is HD-DVD gonna put a stranglehold on BDA?

And the most disappointing thing where is Disney and Lionsgate?

I will still hold to HD-DVD and not get a BD player, but, c'mon I expected a lot more for this show.
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post #64 of 191 Old 01-09-2007, 11:45 AM
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Originally Posted by trmas View Post

And as someone who knows people in Disney, you can forget about them going neutral. Disney believes they can end the format war by staying exclusive, as does most of the BDA. They want ONE format, and believe that Blu-Ray is the best available. I'd expect Universal to buckle before either Disney or Fox, statistically.

Think back to 1999, read this paragraph, and replace "blu-ray" with "Divx". Allegiances change, no matter how strongly worded this week's press releases are.

I'm sure you're right, and that most of the BDA thinks that sticking to their guns will end the format war and leave them on the victorious side. But what happens in 6 months (in 12? in 18?) when HD DVD is not only still around, but still selling well? If Disney or Fox decide that there's $$$ to be made by putting out titles on HD DVD, you can bet they'll do it.
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post #65 of 191 Old 01-09-2007, 11:49 AM
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Originally Posted by trmas View Post

The PS3 isn't a cute gaming system - it is a quality piece of equipment (Puts the 360 to shame where build quality is concerned). And as someone who knows people in Disney, you can forget about them going neutral. Disney believes they can end the format war by staying exclusive, as does most of the BDA. They want ONE format, and believe that Blu-Ray is the best available. I'd expect Universal to buckle before either Disney or Fox, statistically.

It may not be fair, but that is the way it will play out. The BDA knows that if they don't budge, they can win the war on sheer number of titles.

Exactly, and that's what's going to happen. Good thing too, since BD is a format with more future potential (and yes, that is important).

People have it in their head that it's formats that should be competing with each other openly, and all studios should be neutral. No. Formats should in most ideal circumstances be standards, and the CE manufacturers then *compete* within that standard, the movie studios compete - against each other - within that standard. Format competitions in the open marketplace lead to huge inefficiencies throughout the whole ecosystem; that's why these things are discussed behind closed doors, so that differences are hashed out ahead of time.

Well, it didn't happen this time - but you only have to look at the supporters of each format to see who the rightful heir to the DVD legacy is (and it's not the 'son' of DVD that deserves the throne here).

The BDA is going to win this for Blu-ray. They want Blu-ray to win (and yeah, that's the studios too).

Now... I see another ridiculous poll up today (in the AVS vein) indicating how half of the forum will never buy a BD in their lives etc etc... but the reality is, unless hatred of Sony takes priority over the film offerings of Sony, MGM, Disney, and FOX, most of those voters will in fact own a BD player before the year is out - if they are real film enthusiasts. As soon as a under-$500 standalone makes it's way, the same poster that the week before was saying he'd rather die than own BD... will buy that player and own BD. Just like we've already seen so many instances of on this forum with the PS3 crossovers.

And Chinese CE manufacturers making cheap HD DVD players? Here's my take. First, are Circuit City and Best Buy even going to stock these things? And if so - it doesn't even matter if they're cheap; J6P isn't going to buy into the format war just to buy. And when he does buy, I think a player that can play Pirates, Spiderman, and Ice Age will be a higher priority on his list than one that can play King Kong.
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post #66 of 191 Old 01-09-2007, 11:55 AM
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Still amazed that nothing really substantial has happened yet for HD-DVD software ... at this rate, the format war may be over sooner than we thought ...

Where is Universal???
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post #67 of 191 Old 01-09-2007, 11:57 AM
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Originally Posted by xbdestroya View Post

the reality is, unless hatred of Sony takes priority over the film offerings of Sony, MGM, Disney, and FOX, most of those voters will in fact own a BD player before the year is out - if they are real film enthusiasts.

You're assuming that the quality levels will be acceptable. If they are -- great titles, great picture/audio quality, great extras -- then you're 100% correct. If BD had done that from day 1, I'd own a player now. I'll certainly own one by the end of the year if this becomes the case. But I haven't seen the signs yet that it will become a reality in 2007...

I'm a *real* film enthusiast. And some of MGM's upcoming titles look tempting (for example). But the BD transfers from MGM to date have been VERY disappointing.

I'm not going to go out and buy a new player and plunk down $$$ for MGM flicks just because they say they're in HD and come in a pretty blue case. Not if they're going to look like DVD upconverts and lose all of the supplements from the previous editions.

The BD studios have to bring it. So far (with a few exceptions), they haven't.
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post #68 of 191 Old 01-09-2007, 11:58 AM
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Originally Posted by Ilka View Post

Still amazed that nothing really substantial has happened yet for HD-DVD software ... at this rate, the format war may be over sooner than we thought ...

Where is Universal???

A lot of us are having those same thoughts.
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post #69 of 191 Old 01-09-2007, 12:03 PM
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Originally Posted by lsdavinci View Post

Holy crap, sorry for the ranting but is there any hope for HD-DVD? Will LG be the white knight that will allow both the prosper? Because for one side to win, the other side has to now re-publish their titles in the winner's format. And it's easier for 3 studios to crossover than 7 studios. I was hoping for some studio crossovers to HD-DVD but unfortunately, that is not happening. Damn!!!!

Its actually 1 studio vs 7 if we are counting major studios.
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post #70 of 191 Old 01-09-2007, 12:04 PM
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Originally Posted by Ilka View Post

Still amazed that nothing really substantial has happened yet for HD-DVD software ... at this rate, the format war may be over sooner than we thought ...

Where is Universal???

I sure hope people aren't preparing to BLAME Universal after all they have done.

If it were the other way around, and Sony was the only BD exclusive, would anyone figure Sony could carry a format to victory alone?

And Universal has no vested interest in HD DVD, unlike Sony and BD.

Gary


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post #71 of 191 Old 01-09-2007, 12:07 PM
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Originally Posted by bboisvert View Post

...I'm a *real* film enthusiast...

Then I have no doubt this year is your year.
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post #72 of 191 Old 01-09-2007, 12:10 PM
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If that were true, they could've had that wish fulfilled without resorting to this game. The war should be given to the one doing the best job, and that is HD DVD. Their only negatives are that other companies want a bigger piece, its certainly not in terms of the tech or the delivered product.

As my grandmother used to say. If it's one person that thinks you're wrong. That may be them. When EVERYONE thinks you're wrong. It's probably you


And it's everyone vs Toshiba and Uni.

And if you think Uni isn't getting some sweet sweet deals from Microsoft and Toshiba, you REALLY have your head in the sand. Just like Fox,LionsGate and Disney are undoubtedly getting some kind of payoff

It's time to realize that the free market is a myth, and it's whoever has the biggest bullhorn and the biggest wallet that wins virtually every time, no matter how good or bad their product is. For a film based example, check out "Tucker, a man and his dream"
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post #73 of 191 Old 01-09-2007, 12:11 PM
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Originally Posted by WickyWoo View Post

Most people haven't bought 28 DVDs in the last ten YEARS.

My dad, a typical J6P have bought more than 100 DVDs in the last ten years and that's only because I don't have those 100 DVDs (I personally own 1,600 DVDs)

My daughter, a typical J(ane)6P bought more than 50 DVDs in the past 5 years.

Literally hundreds of people I know (aquaintance, clients, etc) own most Disney releases. That's more than 50 DVDs in the past 5 years each.

My neighbour, literally a J6P bought 50 DVDs last year alone.

None of the above is a videophile and/or collector.

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post #74 of 191 Old 01-09-2007, 12:13 PM
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Major letdown for hd-dvd. No studio became netural.
So much for rumors... and misguided petitions
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post #75 of 191 Old 01-09-2007, 12:14 PM
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I already admitted I may be wrong on the number total, but I stand by the fact that when the lowest price you find at retail is $20 apeice, 28 DVDs per average person would be a long time coming. Most people have paid under $10 each for them, and mostly in the last 3-4 years
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post #76 of 191 Old 01-09-2007, 12:16 PM
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Originally Posted by WickyWoo View Post

Oh that's bull and you know it. With DVD there was compelte concensus and no one had a problem with that. Toshiba were the ones who refused to play that game with the other children this time, and they're paying the price.

You are twisting historical facts. It was DVD Forum that chose the at that time more reliable and more compatible disc format presented by Toshiba.

Only after this Sony and consorts set out to bypass the Forum and create there 'own' format.

Regarding disc production capacity you provided a link that showed that BD50 capacity would be at ~1.5M a month by the end of '06

For mass market supply this is an abysmal capacity.
Assuming that BR is getting to market with 365 titles this year. Assuming a one day production run with, lets say, 3M capacity avg this year.
That's a whopping yield of 8200 discs a day from one facility.

This is hardly enough to supply early BR adopters.

Assuming that capacity is growing exponentionally is a bit of a stretch.
To setup these facilities is a very costly business and the set up of additional lines is more likely to follow demand.

If HD starts moving mass market then BD cannot keep up with demand anytime soon. Many buyers could opt for HD DVD instead if that is readily available.
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post #77 of 191 Old 01-09-2007, 12:16 PM
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I highly doubt that FOX, LionsGate, and Disney are getting 'payoffs.' What they got was their copy-protection requests fulfilled, and no doubt they get BD replication at a much reduced cost as well.

Universal for their part gets the special MS-assist with their VC-1 encodes.

Agreements are made and deals are sweetened, but I doubt there's anything as outright crass as studios being 'bought' going on. That just doesn't make any economic sense for anyone.

But then again, I'm just not one for conspiracy theories in general...
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post #78 of 191 Old 01-09-2007, 12:23 PM
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the only fault of Blu Ray is that it was rushed to market one year too early

Ummm.. No. The fault of Blu-ray was putting medicore titles out with a mediocre player. They figured the consumer would have to eat the lousy launch until they could produce some quality and the PS3.

All the Blu-ray supporters gloating about the fact the it took 1.4 million worldwide PS3's in order to TIE HD DVD in sales. Some Trojan horse. I guess the ends justify the means. Why award HD DVD the trophy based on merit from day one. Just bulldoze the entire market with millions of PS3's and a crazy adveritising/promotion budget and sit back and be proud of your format and the organization that foisted The Fifth Element and Samsung with a noise filter on an unsuspecting public so that they could buy themselves some time.
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post #79 of 191 Old 01-09-2007, 12:25 PM
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You are twisting historical facts. It was DVD Forum that chose the at that time more reliable and more compatible disc format presented by Toshiba.

Wow, that's like, verbatim from Amir. Good job!!!

Unfortunately, they then all went off and joined BR. Now why would they do that if they were happy with HD-DVD?

Quote:


Only after this Sony and consorts set out to bypass the Forum and create there 'own' format.

You seem to take great offense to this, you act like it's like bypassing a legal body or something, when all it is is an industry standards coalition.

Quote:


Regarding disc production capacity you provided a link that showed that BD50 capacity would be at ~1.5M a month by the end of '06

For mass market supply this is an abysmal capacity.

But adequate for current needs. It's not like they're not going to keep expanding.

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Assuming that capacity is growing exponentionally is a bit of a stretch.

But I was referring to the 750,000 figure from last may. Read more carefully

Quote:


I highly doubt that FOX, LionsGate, and Disney are getting 'payoffs.' What they got was their copy-protection requests fulfilled, and no doubt they get BD replication at a much reduced cost as well.

So see, they are getting a payoff, in the form of reduced royalties.

Quote:


Universal for their part gets the special MS-assist with their VC-1 encodes.

And if that rumor mill thing is true, and it's awfully specific for something that's not, and verifiyable at least by a stockholder, Toshiba paid them and hid it as an investment in King Kong. That part at least can be verified by seeing if Toshiba is on the investor list in whatever LLC they set up to make the movie.

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Agreements are made and deals are sweetened, but I doubt there's anything as outright crass as studios being 'bought' going on. That just doesn't make any economic sense for anyone.

Unless no one is on your team and you desperitely need allies.
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post #80 of 191 Old 01-09-2007, 12:27 PM
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Originally Posted by lsdavinci View Post

The only real content we've got going for us is LOTR, The Matrix and the Harry Potter Movies. And if these don't remain exclusive to HD-DVD, I think it's over.

Exclusive to HD-DVD???? Those films aren't exclusive to HD-DVD.
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post #81 of 191 Old 01-09-2007, 12:28 PM
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Originally Posted by WickyWoo View Post

So see, they are getting a payoff, in the form of reduced royalties.

Not reduced royalties; reduced replication costs. It's different.

@fa8362: When something's already been addressed in a thread, it doesn't take us forward to rehash it way down the line just to correct the guy again.
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post #82 of 191 Old 01-09-2007, 12:31 PM
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Originally Posted by xbdestroya View Post

@fa8362: When something's already been addressed in a thread, it doesn't take us forward to rehash it way down the line just to correct the guy again.

X, let me know when you buy the site and make the posting rules.
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post #83 of 191 Old 01-09-2007, 12:35 PM
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X, let me know when you buy the site and make the posting rules.

Ok, will do.
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post #84 of 191 Old 01-09-2007, 12:37 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by AnthonyB View Post

This is a disappointing CES, I just don't understand where is Dreamworks? Where is the release dates? Where is HD-DVD gonna put a stranglehold on BDA?

And the most disappointing thing where is Disney and Lionsgate?

I will still hold to HD-DVD and not get a BD player, but, c'mon I expected a lot more for this show.

Why the high expectations so soon in the format roll outs?

Releasing the big catalug busters and new releases at this stage is not very profitable for studio's.
Much more players need to be with consumers before we see the real big hitters.


The problem with HD DVD is that the studio's supporting it are independend from ce manufacturers and for them it's business as usual. Studio's supporting BR exclusively are far more agressive in the marketing for BR. (Foxy graphs)

Sony aquired several movie studio's several years ago to enable studio exclusivity.

Another significant market is only just comming into play: Europe.
Many will opt for HD DVD because Bluray region coded.
It will take at least a year to get an real idea how it will go.
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post #85 of 191 Old 01-09-2007, 12:43 PM
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Just wait for the press release of Universal going neutral and you will see the death of HD-DVD.
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post #86 of 191 Old 01-09-2007, 12:44 PM
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yup, if Universal goes neutral, HD-DVD is dead.

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post #87 of 191 Old 01-09-2007, 12:50 PM
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Not reduced royalties; reduced replication costs. It's different.

Royalties are paid by the replicator, not the individual studios.
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post #88 of 191 Old 01-09-2007, 12:51 PM
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Originally Posted by xbdestroya View Post

And Chinese CE manufacturers making cheap HD DVD players? Here's my take...

And how often do they provide software upgrade for bug fixes?
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post #89 of 191 Old 01-09-2007, 12:54 PM
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Originally Posted by WickyWoo View Post

Royalties are paid by the replicator, not the individual studios.

....?

Wicky, Sony owns BD replication plants. Let's pretend at market prices, a disc costs x amount to replicate, and would normally be sold at y price (to studio in bulk) for b profit. Now, what Sony is doing is saying to studios: We'll give you a per-disc pressing cost of x, and not make a dime. Or maybe they'll even offer it at z cost - even lower than x! - and actually lose a little per disc...

The royalty fees in all cases remain the same; it's the replicator that offers the discount. And in this instance, that replicator is Sony. HD DVD can't pursue this same tactic, because Toshiba themselves is not an operator of HD DVD replication facilities.
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post #90 of 191 Old 01-09-2007, 12:55 PM
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Originally Posted by Frank Derks View Post

Many will opt for HD DVD because Bluray region coded.
It will take at least a year to get an real idea how it will go.

HD DVD will be region coded also at some point. But really, both sides are planning on a battle that will last 3-4 years.
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