Why BD exclusive studios still remain exclusive? - AVS Forum
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post #1 of 75 Old 01-10-2007, 01:36 AM - Thread Starter
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speculation time again. These applies to MGM, Disney and Lions Gate.

my take is these studios made an "pre-mature" and ill conceived decision to tie themselves contractually to BDA in return for subdisies. Why do i think so? Because Andy Parsons announced the business plans for these three studios to stay exclusive for BD. Why was he so sure? These studios handled him their business plans papers? Unlikely! Andy Parsons would know if these studios are tied to the BDA contractually ! So when will the contractually agreement expire?
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post #2 of 75 Old 01-10-2007, 03:44 AM
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Originally Posted by xboxboi View Post

So when will the contractually agreement expire?

Probably long after Blu-ray has indeed won.
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post #3 of 75 Old 01-10-2007, 07:18 AM
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They're only passionate about profits. Is there a conspiracy to restrain trade? I suspect they don't care because they know that a challenge will take too much time and the victim will be dead before a decision on the issue is rendered. The problem with Disney is that they're new animated stuff looks so good on DVD I won't buy into BD just to get it. The Fox stuff is just too expensive so DVD looks like a good alternative. I was thinking of gettinga BD player but all the strong arm tactics by the BD consortium and the BD spin doctors here have made me reconsider.

Cheers,

Grant
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post #4 of 75 Old 01-10-2007, 07:22 AM
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they are so passionate about having a single format, that they know by continuing to support only one format it will end the format war quicker

Naive statement. It has been and will always be about the money.
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post #5 of 75 Old 01-10-2007, 07:40 AM
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The real answer is that sales -- for BOTH formats -- are still a drop in the bucket. So, given that teams have picked sides, they're staying where they are in hopes that they picked a winner.

As the install base for both grow, and as it becomes clear that neither side is going away soon, studios will start to go neutral. There's no reason not to, if there's money to be made.


But, right now, a company like Disney or Fox is probably looking at how (relatively) small the group of HD buyers are and thinking that they'll see how things shake out in the months ahead.


My wild-assed guess? In a year from now, you'll have seen *both* formats grow quite a bit and sales will still be neck-and-neck between the formats. And, if that's the case, I don't think that studios will be staying put. You'll see more broad support for both once it becomes clear that (a) both are growing and (b) neither one is going away.
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post #6 of 75 Old 01-10-2007, 07:41 AM
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my take is these studios made an "pre-mature" and ill conceived decision to tie themselves contractually to BDA in return for subdisies

In the case of MGM, it probably reads like this:

"We own your ass, you do what we tell you. BR only"
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post #7 of 75 Old 01-10-2007, 07:42 AM
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Umm, because Blu-ray is now outselling HD DVD. That would be reason enough.

No animals were harmed in the creation of this sentence.
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post #8 of 75 Old 01-10-2007, 09:18 AM
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Originally Posted by eightninesuited View Post

Umm, because Blu-ray is now outselling HD DVD. That would be reason enough.

Yup, me thinks the BD exclusive companies could see past the end of their nose.
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post #9 of 75 Old 01-10-2007, 09:24 AM
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Originally Posted by eightninesuited View Post

Umm, because Blu-ray is now outselling HD DVD. That would be reason enough.

So the assertion works both ways -- why do Universal and Weinstein still remain exclusive to HD-DVD?
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post #10 of 75 Old 01-10-2007, 09:52 AM
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Originally Posted by xboxboi View Post

So when will the contractually agreement expire?

Rumors said 1Q. Maybe that's why FOX said war should be over by then and why Sony always promise 6M PS3 by March(maybe it is part of the contract...). It is very clear now they want to give bluray a hard push because they(FOX/LGF/Disney) think a single format is better for the industry. They are fully aware of the 2:1 lead from HD DVD, but they still think PS3 is going to turn the tide completely in the first quater. Why FOX is so excited about the one week lead from bluray anyway?

The tipping point of this war is when FOX/LGF/Disney realize that two formats is going to be the reality in this generation. Once they accept that and give up the effort for single format, then the rest should be history.

Please note, Warner's Total HD,TL-51GB, and HD DVD's Chinese brand(not only made in China) players doesn't come into play until maybe 2Q/3Q. If Bluray is able to lead the sales by 3:1 or even higher during 1Q, I think the war is over and HD DVD will go away. If not, than we will see the battle field become balanced.

Last, how many exclusive titles from bluray during the 1Q? What about HD DVD?

HDPLEX
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post #11 of 75 Old 01-10-2007, 10:28 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by eightninesuited View Post

Umm, because Blu-ray is now outselling HD DVD. That would be reason enough.

Exactly, especially with standalone units. BR crushes HD DVD. Canadian......Pfft.
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post #12 of 75 Old 01-10-2007, 11:22 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by xboxboi View Post

speculation time again. These applies to MGM, Disney and Lions Gate.

all three have been very vocal in hoping "supporting only one format" will settle the war faster.

in short all have been bamboozled

add to that Fox wants rootkit protection and bluray gave that to them

Fox/Disney bought into Circuit City's DIVX disposable rental concept and were steadfast for over a year boycotting DVD then havign a "no-anamorphic" policy?

so what do you expect?

DVD's are about movies & people watch them in living rooms, how many people actually use their computer drives to sit and watch movies- Bluray's Andy Parsons
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post #13 of 75 Old 01-10-2007, 11:49 AM
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Indeed. And the highest profits can be made when only one format remains (which will accelerate consumer adoption). So holding to a single format will ensure higher profits.

Josh is correct.

The highest profits, and most rapid adoption rate, will be gained by a single format. Therefore, Disney and the other exlusive BD studios are ensuring their highest profits by promoting BD exclusively to help ensure a quicker end to the format-war.

Despite what they say, the studios have a target-date for the single format emerging in the market of about 2-years. So probably 2009 is when they expect BD to emerge the clear-cut winner. The talk of BD winning in the first quarter etc. is just political play. Sort of like Toshiba's 51GB TL HD DVD.

They chose BD because of the added security and 50GB storage facility.

1080p and lossless audio. EVERY BD should have them both.
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post #14 of 75 Old 01-10-2007, 11:57 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by DaViD Boulet View Post

The highest profits, and most rapid adoption rate, will be gained by a single format. Therefore, Disney and the other exlusive BD studios are ensuring their highest profits by promoting BD exclusively to help ensure a quicker end to the format-war.

no, they're HOPING TO FASCILITATE future higher profits by tilting the playing field to eliminate one format.

quick kill.

it failed as did DIVX

DVD's are about movies & people watch them in living rooms, how many people actually use their computer drives to sit and watch movies- Bluray's Andy Parsons
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post #15 of 75 Old 01-10-2007, 12:25 PM
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What failed? It (the close of the format war) hasn't happened yet, nor was it expected to.

Anyone trying to compare pay-per-view P/S DIVX with 50GB Blu-ray media is making a very specious connection.

1080p and lossless audio. EVERY BD should have them both.
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post #16 of 75 Old 01-10-2007, 12:25 PM
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Where is this 2 years and 2009 coming from? Secret contract? 
HD DVD was leading in software sales by 2:1 given no help from PS3 and LGF/Disney/FOX/MGM during 2006. If they really want one format, it should be the one who has the most software sales, no?

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Originally Posted by DaViD Boulet View Post

So probably 2009 is when they expect BD to emerge the clear-cut winner.

You seem to lack confidence as a bluray supporter. You have Disney/FOX/LGF/MGM/SONY and at least another 2M PS3 by 1Q2007. The "consensus" here is Universal would be neutral and HD DVD will go away by this summer.


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Originally Posted by DaViD Boulet View Post

The talk of BD winning in the first quarter etc. is just political play. Sort of like Toshiba's 51GB TL HD DVD.

Well bluray definitely need that political play given poor software sales during 2006. If they still fail to achieve the one format-bluray agenda, then all bets are off. If you are the studio head, with 90% content support and 3-4M players, your software sales are still in a stalemates with the competitor (who has only 10% exclusive content and less than 1M players). What does that tell you? What more proof do you want about the market preference as if 2006's data was not convincing enough?

Warner doesn't need more proof. They go ahead with Total-HD.

HDPLEX
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post #17 of 75 Old 01-10-2007, 12:41 PM
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Originally Posted by lymzy View Post

Where is this 2 years and 2009 coming from? Secret contract? 
HD DVD was leading in software sales by 2:1 given no help from PS3 and LGF/Disney/FOX/MGM during 2006. If they really want one format, it should be the one who has the most software sales, no?

I think it should be obvious that they think it should be the one with the most future software sales, not the most past software sales. Of course the future is a guess/estimate/or whatever you want to call it, but if one was leading by a huge margin, the other one caught up and has a higher run-rate, then the 2:1 margin doesn't look that good going forward.

--Darin

This is the AV Science Forum. Please don't be gullible and please do remember the saying, "Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice, shame on me."
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post #18 of 75 Old 01-10-2007, 12:44 PM
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If they really want one format, it should be the one who has the most software sales, no?

No. It should be the format with 20 additional gigs of space and 1.5x the bandwidth of the other format. Sales up until now reflect the lead-time that HD DVD has had in the market place with early-adoptors, not some larger reflection of which format will succeed when BD market penetration has taken root.

BD hasn't even gotten going yet. When BD-Java gets fully implimented by mid-summer, we'll see BD releases that really start to shine. *That* will be when it's time to start to compare formats, and see which one looks better in terms of featuresets etc.

HD DVD got an early start because it required much less retooling and because Sony mis-managed their development (shocking us all ). The early-release of BD was only to keep HD DVD from having a big-lead on-paper, but had HD DVD not already launched the BD group would probably have waited until HDMI 1.3 availability and BD-J to launch. In other words, BD's release has been incremental, and is still gaining a foothold as the specs come on-line.

The reason these studios support BD is because, when fully realized (as it will be by mid-summer), it's the better format. The studios are taking a longer-term view of this thing. And so are many HD enthusiasts.


Quote:


What more proof do you want about the market preference as if 2006's data was not convincing enough?

I fail to see how last-year's data with BD not even fully implimented has anything to do with the projection of future sales.


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I think it should be obvious that they think it should be the one with
the most future software sales, not the most past software sales. Of
course the future is a guess/estimate/or whatever you want to call it,
but if one was leading by a huge margin, then other one caught up and
has a higher run-rate, then the 2:1 margin doesn't look that good going
forward.

Exactly.

1080p and lossless audio. EVERY BD should have them both.
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post #19 of 75 Old 01-10-2007, 12:52 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by DaViD Boulet View Post

What failed? It (the close of the format war) hasn't happened yet, nor was it expected to.

Anyone trying to compare pay-per-view P/S DIVX with 50GB Blu-ray media is making a very specious connection.

what failed is Fox/Disney's attempt to tilt the war into HD-DVD being stillborn which would get more profits for them.

Fox in particular is spewing propeganda trying to further their Hidef rootkit efforts and trying to get HD-DVD studios to cry uncle all with the same press releases. Some here think it's a great idea!

now, it's obvious there not only wont' be ONE HD format, but there will be SEVERAL formats... HD-DVD, BRD, 360HD market, AppleTV with more coming, nevermind IPTV, PPV/VOD.

The "specious" connection is not suggesting they are again backing a failed format this time... the connection again is they used the same anti-consumer and lame tactics years ago on a format that deserved to be (and was) stillborn. They're stubborn to a fault and don't cater to or care about home theater enthusiasts whatsoever.

DVD's are about movies & people watch them in living rooms, how many people actually use their computer drives to sit and watch movies- Bluray's Andy Parsons
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post #20 of 75 Old 01-10-2007, 01:11 PM
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what failed is Fox/Disney's attempt to tilt the war into HD-DVD being stillborn which would get more profits for them.

If I recall, it was the entire film industry that motivated Sony and Toshiba to try to unify the format because they wanted a single format, and negotiations failed. Toshiba chose to continue to launch HD DVD in spite of the future projections of BD's success and that was certainly their choice. Warner's support of HD DVD was one based on legacy relationships with Toshiba. Even Warner wished that Toshiba would have worked with Sony to merge into a unified standard even if it meant preserving Sony's physical disc structure. The only studio who didn't feel frustrated by Toshiba's go-ahead with HD DVD was Universal. I'm not saying that Fox and Disney didn't hope to stale-mate HD DVD before launch... they certainly did. But so did most of the other major studios.

1080p and lossless audio. EVERY BD should have them both.
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post #21 of 75 Old 01-10-2007, 01:22 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by darinp2 View Post

2:1 margin doesn't look that good going forward.
--Darin


Very good. Let's say by the end of 1Q. There are 3M PS3 and around 50-70k CE bluray players on the market. There are almost 30 more exclusive titles from LGF/Disney/FOX/MGM. If the sales margin is still around 1:1, what does that tell you?

Well, it tells me that exclusive and PS3 are not going to help bluray significantly going forward. PS3 effect will be out of the picture by then because PS3 already saturate the market above $500.

The next ground is that who could first break the $300 price point. DVD didn't really take off until APEX first break the $300 in Circuit City and then $99 at Wal-Mart.

1Q is the toughest time for HD DVD, no doubt about it. If it could survive the exclusive and PS3 hammer, then the future is pretty good. HD DVD already got the reference design for Chinese brand to play real HD DVD this CES. If FOX/Disney/LGF would have no choice but goes neutral unless their contract forbid so.

HDPLEX
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post #22 of 75 Old 01-10-2007, 01:30 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by DaViD Boulet View Post

No. It should be the format with 20 additional gigs of space and 1.5x the bandwidth of the other format.

Don't speak for everyone please. I support HD DVD for the whole solution because I believe HD DVD is a better format to bridge optical to future online digital distribution. HD DVD is only part of the puzzle in the whole picture.

Quote:
Originally Posted by DaViD Boulet View Post

BD hasn't even gotten going yet. When BD-Java gets fully implimented by mid-summer, we'll see BD releases that really start to shine.

When BD-J got the 1G interface going, HDi will enter its 2G or even third generation application. Competition doesn't wait for you.


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Originally Posted by DaViD Boulet View Post

In other words, BD's release has been incremental, and is still gaining a foothold as the specs come on-line.

Well, HD DVD doesn't really lauched until marketable 2G player and add-on.


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Originally Posted by DaViD Boulet View Post

The reason these studios support BD is because, when fully realized (as it will be by mid-summer), it's the better format.

Hey, when it is fully realized, HD DVD might be gone and wouldn't have a fair chance to compete. What if they could make the 51GB work and first realize the MC on PC?

HDPLEX
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post #23 of 75 Old 01-10-2007, 01:32 PM
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Again, I'd wait until BD-J is released and BD player prices fall to the $499 range (stand alones, not just the PS3) before trying to draw any conclusions about sales data in regards to consumer preferences.


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Well, HD DVD doesn't really lauched until marketable 2G player and add-on.

What are you talking about?

HD DVD is already fully realized. Everything substantial in the published spec is already there.

BD will have everything substantial in its spec going by mid-summer. That's what "fully realized" means in my comments.

1080p and lossless audio. EVERY BD should have them both.
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post #24 of 75 Old 01-10-2007, 01:34 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by DaViD Boulet View Post

If I recall, it was the entire film industry that motivated Sony and Toshiba to try to unify the format because they wanted a single format, and negotiations failed. Toshiba chose to continue to launch HD DVD in spite of the future projections of BD's success and that was certainly their choice. Warner's support of HD DVD was one based on legacy relationships with Toshiba. Even Warner wished that Toshiba would have worked with Sony to merge into a unified standard even if it meant preserving Sony's physical disc structure. The only studio who didn't feel frustrated by Toshiba's go-ahead with HD DVD was Universal. I'm not saying that Fox and Disney didn't hope to stale-mate HD DVD before launch... they certainly did. But so did most of the other major studios.

gimme a break. "unify" was to adopt bluray into the DVD forum and toshiba and co. sit in the corner being punished.

sony is a HW maker AND studio.... as if you could reason with them and "unify"... they built up this arms race for 10 years after DVD with PS3 premier weapon. they recruited the paranoid anticonsumer divx duo to drop the NUKE and help eliminate a street fight.

oops.

regardless...

we all can agree on this matter... if they were readily concerned about customers, they'd go NEUTRAL as warner and paramount did.

DVD's are about movies & people watch them in living rooms, how many people actually use their computer drives to sit and watch movies- Bluray's Andy Parsons
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post #25 of 75 Old 01-10-2007, 01:38 PM
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gimme a break. "unify" was to adopt bluray into the DVD forum and toshiba and co. sit in the corner being punished.


Sony did not wish for BD to be approved by the DVD forum as a means of obtaining unification. That wasn't the issue.

Sony incorporated virtually all of HD DVDs specs (advanced video codecs etc.) per Warner's request and even was pushing for iHD to be added for Toshiba. Toshiba was offered financial incentives to merge, but wanted to keep with their physical structure bcs they felt the short-term gains in replications costs were more important than the long-term gains by moving to a new disc platform. It was the disagreement over the physical structure that caused Toshiba not to merge.

Sony and Toshiba merged quite successfully with DVD, so the two camps are quite capable of coming to fincial settlements to share royalties and other format-incentives.

1080p and lossless audio. EVERY BD should have them both.
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post #26 of 75 Old 01-10-2007, 01:39 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by DaViD Boulet View Post

Sony incorporated virtually all of HD DVDs specs (advanced video codecs etc.) per Warner's request and even was pushing for iHD to be added for Toshiba. Toshiba was offered financial incentives to merge, but wanted to keep with their physical structure bcs they felt the short-term gains in replications costs were more important than the long-term gains by moving to a new disc platform. It was the disagreement over the physical structure that caused Toshiba not to merge.

Sony and Toshiba merged quite successfully with DVD, so the two camps are quite capable of coming to fincial settlements to share royalties and other format-incentives.

sony didn't own MGM then did they.

that huge investment (in a money pit to some degree) was no coincidence

come on....

DVD's are about movies & people watch them in living rooms, how many people actually use their computer drives to sit and watch movies- Bluray's Andy Parsons
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post #27 of 75 Old 01-10-2007, 01:43 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by DaViD Boulet View Post


HD DVD is already fully realized. Everything substantial in the published spec is already there.

Not even one potential I cared about has been realized on HD DVD. For example, where is the subtitle/trailer/new menu/extras update for existing titles? More importantly, where is the S-EVOB secondary 15Mbps max stream from external storage that could sync with the main feature? I don't blame them on MC because AACS hasn't nail the license yet. They just demoed something interesting this CES. That is it.

HDPLEX
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post #28 of 75 Old 01-10-2007, 01:48 PM
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Also, we should not confuse how many PS3's Sony ships with how many PS3's consumers purchase.

The talk on the streets right now describes an awful lot of PS3's sitting on retailer's shelves, a fairly weak demand (probably due to pricing caused by the inclusion of the BD drive), and some number of returns.

I own both formats and can purchase and play either format, but the disconnect between the studios with many titles scheduled for release (BD) and the availability of reasonably priced hardware (HD DVD) spells problems for acceptance by the general public for both sides.

Vern
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post #29 of 75 Old 01-10-2007, 01:52 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by lymzy View Post

Very good. Let's say by the end of 1Q. There are 3M PS3 and around 50-70k CE bluray players on the market. There are almost 30 more exclusive titles from LGF/Disney/FOX/MGM. If the sales margin is still around 1:1, what does that tell you?

Are you talking about total sales from the beginning, or current sales rate at that time? If total sales were 2:1 in favor of HD DVD on December 31st and they are 1:1 on March 31st, then I would say that HD DVD would have to do something quick to stem the tide, since it would mean that Blu-ray outsold them pretty well in Q1. The run-rate on March 31st would be pretty important there though.

--Darin

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post #30 of 75 Old 01-10-2007, 02:08 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by darinp2 View Post

Are you talking about total sales from the beginning, or current sales rate at that time?

I am talking about the 1Q sales. IIRC, bluray will have at least 40 exclusive titles from FOX/MGM/LGF/Disney/Sony and 2-3 million PS3 during 1Q. Even if the MGM/FOX/DISNEY/SONY/LGF sale a lot less copies per movie compare to Universal. Bluray should still lead the total software sales at least 3:1 or 4:1 because of the sheer title amount/preception/2-3M PS3. Correct me if I am wrong. HD DVD's only chance to get close to the 1:1 in total sales is they are able to do significantly better on neutral and Universal's release.

Does HD DVD have that chance? Well, Warner looks at the market share and sales chart for 2006 and come up with the crap Total-HD idea with the 600M/400M(HD DVD/Bluray) sales prediction. LG might also look at the data and said let's give hybrid a chance. I don't know about the others, do you?

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