2006 software sales: HD DVD outsold BD 2:1 - AVS Forum
Forum Jump: 
 
Thread Tools
Old 01-10-2007, 04:19 AM - Thread Starter
AVS Special Member
 
Grubert's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2001
Posts: 7,892
Mentioned: 0 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 0 Post(s)
Liked: 11
Just look at this slide from the Warner press conference on Total HD:



This gives us enough data to find out more.

Let us look at Universal. Uni did 25 percent of all hidef sales and 38 percent of HD DVD sales.

Let
H = total HD DVD sales (in copies sold or dollars, it doesn't matter)
B = total Blu-ray sales
U = Universal sales

Then
U/H = 0.38
U/(H+B) = 0.25

U = 0.38 H

0.38 H/(H+B) = 0.25
(B+H)/(0.38 H) = 1/0.25
(B+H)/H = 0.38/0.25
B/H + 1 = 38/25
B/H = 38/25 - 1 = 1.52 - 1 = 0.52
B= 0.52 H

H = 1.92 B

Freedom is the freedom to say that two plus two make four. If that is granted, all else follows.
-George Orwell, Nineteen Eighty-Four
Grubert is offline  
Sponsored Links
Advertisement
 
Old 01-10-2007, 04:33 AM
Advanced Member
 
BlackRiderX's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jan 2005
Posts: 602
Mentioned: 0 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 4 Post(s)
Liked: 12
Nice Find Grubert. I had to adjust my monitors brightness to be able to read some of that chart.

Math was never my subject so I'll just take your calculations as being correct.

One problem though. Does that say Fox released 20 titles? I can make out that Fox, Disney, and LG combined are around 13% of the total market.
BlackRiderX is offline  
Old 01-10-2007, 04:44 AM - Thread Starter
AVS Special Member
 
Grubert's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2001
Posts: 7,892
Mentioned: 0 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 0 Post(s)
Liked: 11
Quote:
Originally Posted by BlackRiderX View Post

Nice Find Grubert. I had to adjust my monitors brightness to be able to read some of that chart.

Math was never my subject so I'll just take your calculations as being correct.

One problem though. Does that say Fox released 20 titles? I can make out that Fox, Disney, and LG combined are around 13% of the total market.

Fox and MGM are lumped together:


Freedom is the freedom to say that two plus two make four. If that is granted, all else follows.
-George Orwell, Nineteen Eighty-Four
Grubert is offline  
Old 01-10-2007, 05:43 AM
AVS Special Member
 
joshd2012's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2005
Posts: 1,297
Mentioned: 0 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 0 Post(s)
Liked: 10
Nice work, Grubert. So, for 2006 on the whole, they outsold Blu-ray 2:1. I wish we could have gotten a month-by-month break down so we could see if the trends Fox is reporting are true.
joshd2012 is offline  
Old 01-10-2007, 06:47 AM
AVS Special Member
 
dialog_gvf's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2002
Location: Toronto, ON
Posts: 4,990
Mentioned: 0 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 0 Post(s)
Liked: 10
You realize that a slide in the Total HD Press Conference link you gave elsewhere confirms your math?

First Year Sales
HD DVD 2x Blu-ray

The slides above are from that conference.

Universal accounted for 38% of HD DVD sales? Wow.

And with the PS/3 out only six weeks in 2006, and unavailable for much of that, BD managed to narrow the gap to 2:1. Clearly that could only be possible if BD did pass HD DVD in weekly sales, as Fox has stated.

Gary


- Don't trust sigs
dialog_gvf is offline  
Old 01-10-2007, 06:52 AM - Thread Starter
AVS Special Member
 
Grubert's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2001
Posts: 7,892
Mentioned: 0 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 0 Post(s)
Liked: 11
Quote:
Originally Posted by dialog_gvf View Post

You realize that a slide in the Total HD Press Conference link you gave elsewhere confirms your math?

First Year Sales
HD DVD 2x Blu-ray

The slides above are from that conference.



I saw that, but as it was in the context of the Presidents of Warner speaking, we don't know if it refers to Warner HD DVD vs BD sales, or all HD DVD vs BD sales. The charts are much more specific and reliable.

-edit: looking closely at the half-obscured text behind the "2x", I'd say it refers to "Hi-def Devices".

Freedom is the freedom to say that two plus two make four. If that is granted, all else follows.
-George Orwell, Nineteen Eighty-Four
Grubert is offline  
Old 01-10-2007, 07:05 AM
 
plazman's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2006
Location: Washington, DC
Posts: 6,313
Mentioned: 0 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 0 Post(s)
Liked: 10
Quote:
Originally Posted by Grubert View Post

Just look at this slide from the Warner press conference on Total HD:



This gives us enough data to find out more.

Let us look at Universal. Uni did 25 percent of all hidef sales and 38 percent of HD DVD sales.

Let
H = total HD DVD sales (in copies sold or dollars, it doesn't matter)
B = total Blu-ray sales
U = Universal sales

Then
U/H = 0.38
U/(H+B) = 0.25

U = 0.38 H

0.38 H/(H+B) = 0.25
(B+H)/(0.38 H) = 1/0.25
(B+H)/H = 0.38/0.25
B/H + 1 = 38/25
B/H = 38/25 - 1 = 1.52 - 1 = 0.52
B= 0.52 H

H = 1.92 B

Just looking at the All High Def chart (after zooming on my PC) it looks like Warner did as well as Universal and Paramount combined and that Universal did better than all BD exclusive studios combined (in terms of market share)!

It looks like Universal did 25% of the market with 56 titles and Sony + Fox + Disney + LG did 25% between them with 73 titles.
plazman is offline  
Old 01-10-2007, 07:14 AM
Senior Member
 
BrynRhys's Avatar
 
Join Date: Dec 2003
Location: Mount Meru
Posts: 252
Mentioned: 0 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 0 Post(s)
Liked: 10
Well done, Grubert!
BrynRhys is offline  
Old 01-10-2007, 07:20 AM - Thread Starter
AVS Special Member
 
Grubert's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2001
Posts: 7,892
Mentioned: 0 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 0 Post(s)
Liked: 11
Quote:
Originally Posted by plazman View Post

It looks like Universal did 25% of the market with 56 titles and Sony + Fox + Disney + LG did 25% between them with 73 titles.

Correct. Hence the average HD DVD-exclusive title sold 30% more than the average BD-exclusive title.

Freedom is the freedom to say that two plus two make four. If that is granted, all else follows.
-George Orwell, Nineteen Eighty-Four
Grubert is offline  
Old 01-10-2007, 07:45 AM
AVS Special Member
 
skogan's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2004
Location: Koror, Palau
Posts: 4,415
Mentioned: 0 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 0 Post(s)
Liked: 10
As always, good find Grubert.
skogan is offline  
Old 01-10-2007, 08:24 AM
AVS Special Member
 
nataraj's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2000
Location: WA
Posts: 8,020
Mentioned: 0 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 0 Post(s)
Liked: 10
Quote:
Originally Posted by plazman View Post

It looks like Universal did 25% of the market with 56 titles and Sony + Fox + Disney + LG did 25% between them with 73 titles.

Interesting. Wonder who is leaving more money on the table ....
nataraj is offline  
Old 01-10-2007, 08:37 AM
AVS Special Member
 
joshd2012's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2005
Posts: 1,297
Mentioned: 0 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 0 Post(s)
Liked: 10
Quote:
Originally Posted by nataraj View Post

Interesting. Wonder who is leaving more money on the table ....

In 2006, obviously Blu-ray exclusive studios. But 2006 is over and gone. What would be interesting is to look at December figures only to get a look on how 2007 will start.
joshd2012 is offline  
Old 01-10-2007, 08:41 AM
AVS Special Member
 
nataraj's Avatar
 
Join Date: Mar 2000
Location: WA
Posts: 8,020
Mentioned: 0 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 0 Post(s)
Liked: 10
Quote:
Originally Posted by joshd2012 View Post

In 2006, obviously Blu-ray exclusive studios. But 2006 is over and gone. What would be interesting is to look at December figures only to get a look on how 2007 will start.

Even if you assume PS3 owners bought a few movies making BD sales closer to HD DVD ... we only have to look at PSP movies to see where may be headed.
nataraj is offline  
Old 01-10-2007, 09:04 AM
AVS Special Member
 
skogan's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2004
Location: Koror, Palau
Posts: 4,415
Mentioned: 0 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 0 Post(s)
Liked: 10
What is odd is that BD sales shot up (as expected) before Christmas, but have leveled-off since then. Despite the fact that BD has doubled it's player based since Christmas, there haven't been that many more software sales, (according to Amazon.)


Salesrank of top 10 products
skogan is offline  
Old 01-10-2007, 09:06 AM
AVS Special Member
 
skogan's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2004
Location: Koror, Palau
Posts: 4,415
Mentioned: 0 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 0 Post(s)
Liked: 10
In other words, by looking at the above chart, one would not know that there are roughly twice as many BD players on the market now as there was on December 23, 2006.
skogan is offline  
Old 01-10-2007, 09:18 AM
AVS Special Member
 
joshd2012's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2005
Posts: 1,297
Mentioned: 0 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 0 Post(s)
Liked: 10
Quote:
Originally Posted by nataraj View Post

Even if you assume PS3 owners bought a few movies making BD sales closer to HD DVD ... we only have to look at PSP movies to see where may be headed.

Universal will start releasing titles on BD?

Comparing a portable format with a single application to a mainstream format with endless applications reeks of desperation.
joshd2012 is offline  
Old 01-10-2007, 09:31 AM
AVS Special Member
 
skogan's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2004
Location: Koror, Palau
Posts: 4,415
Mentioned: 0 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 0 Post(s)
Liked: 10
Why would Nat be desperate? It's not like he has any control over the format war, nor is he really all that effected by it. Not enough to be desperate anyway.

"Desperate" is a charished word amoung BD fans, it appears.
skogan is offline  
Old 01-10-2007, 09:41 AM
Senior Member
 
nbay's Avatar
 
Join Date: Sep 2006
Posts: 223
Mentioned: 0 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 0 Post(s)
Liked: 10
Wickywoo will be on a minute to explain it all.

I'm live next to Bob and Doug
nbay is offline  
Old 01-10-2007, 09:48 AM
AVS Special Member
 
xbdestroya's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jun 2006
Posts: 2,650
Mentioned: 0 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 0 Post(s)
Liked: 10
Good extrapolation Grubert.

Honestly though I view it as a positive trendwise for Blu-ray ultimately, since a lot of that gap-narrowing occured post November 11th. To hear some people on this forum talk, one may have thought that HD DVD was leading Blu-ray 5 to 1. We all knew HD DVD was leading in general though in 2006, so no surprise in the confirmation there.

(And these UMD/BD comparisons have got to stop... I mean do people seriously not see a difference?)
xbdestroya is offline  
Old 01-10-2007, 09:57 AM
AVS Special Member
 
Tolstoi's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2004
Location: Montreal, Canada
Posts: 2,907
Mentioned: 0 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 0 Post(s)
Liked: 14
This mainly shows that it is not a good thing to be exclusive no matter which side you are.

Now the interesting question; is this presentation convinced anybody of the value of Warner's total HD disk?
Tolstoi is offline  
Old 01-10-2007, 10:21 AM
AVS Special Member
 
BuGsArEtAsTy's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2001
Location: AVS Forum
Posts: 7,128
Mentioned: 0 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 6 Post(s)
Liked: 10
Quote:
Originally Posted by xbdestroya View Post

To hear some people on this forum talk, one may have thought that HD DVD was leading Blu-ray 5 to 1. We all knew HD DVD was leading in general though in 2006, so no surprise in the confirmation there.

Yeah, it was a few Blu-ray people who kept bringing up this number, when the vast majority of the HD DVD player didn't believe any 5:1 ratio.

ie. Blu-ray people would bring it up just to knock it down.

OTOH, it certainly validates what the HD DVD people have been saying all along. HD DVD clearly outsold Blu-ray, and Amazon was a good indication of that.
BuGsArEtAsTy is offline  
Old 01-10-2007, 10:25 AM
Advanced Member
 
Wesley5's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2005
Posts: 656
Mentioned: 0 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 0 Post(s)
Liked: 10
Quote:
Originally Posted by joshd2012 View Post

Universal ...
Comparing a portable format with a single application to a mainstream format with endless applications reeks of desperation.

It's a very valid comparison. New PS3 owners are likely to sample a few BD movies and see what the hype is, the real question is afterwards (the initial surge), are they impressed enough to continue to buy BD movies ? Now that's the $billion question still waits for an answer. PSP is one relevant data point. Dust will settle in probably a few months
Wesley5 is offline  
Old 01-10-2007, 10:40 AM
AVS Special Member
 
joshd2012's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2005
Posts: 1,297
Mentioned: 0 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 0 Post(s)
Liked: 10
Quote:
Originally Posted by Wesley5 View Post

It's a very valid comparison. New PS3 owners are likely to sample a few BD movies and see what the hype is, the real question is afterwards (the initial surge), are they impressed enough to continue to buy BD movies ? Now that's the $billion question still waits for an answer. PSP is one relevant data point. Dust will settle in probably a few months

If you could only play a Blu-ray movie in a PS3, then yes it would be relevant. As you can play it in multiple stand alone players and PC drives, its a non-issue.
joshd2012 is offline  
Old 01-10-2007, 10:42 AM
AVS Special Member
 
Tolstoi's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2004
Location: Montreal, Canada
Posts: 2,907
Mentioned: 0 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 0 Post(s)
Liked: 14
Quote:
Originally Posted by Wesley5 View Post

It's a very valid comparison. New PS3 owners are likely to sample a few BD movies and see what the hype is, the real question is afterwards (the initial surge), are they impressed enough to continue to buy BD movies ? Now that's the $billion question still waits for an answer. PSP is one relevant data point. Dust will settle in probably a few months

I am also part of that surge I bought a few Blu-Ray when the slew of players became available. Meanwhile, from now on, I am still planning to buy mainly HD DVD. For every movie that is released in both formats I will pick the HD DVD version unless the Blu-Ray version offers a better image quality (meaning it is a released on a 50Gb disk and use a better bitrates). At this point the HD DVD format is more mature, the players provides better audio support and the disks are cheaper.
Tolstoi is offline  
Old 01-10-2007, 10:46 AM
AVS Special Member
 
wnorris's Avatar
 
Join Date: Jul 2003
Posts: 2,578
Mentioned: 0 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 0 Post(s)
Liked: 10
Well, I think the two sides are manuvering like a well played game of chess. I wasn't overwhelmed by either sides news coming out of CES. BD made the move of announcing more exclusive titles and preached how content would win. I definately think BD had a better CES in terms of software.

HD-DVD was very thin on content announcement compared to BD, but they announced that several well known brands would be producing HD-DVD players, and that also some cheap import players were in the works. They also announced 51 GB HD-DVD discs, eliminating the "we have 50 GB discs" from BD's bag or tricks. From my understanding of how they did it, I think 17GB layers will soon be standard (there is still some question as to how backwards compatible triple-layer discs will be). So I think HD-DVD one-uped BD on the hardware side.

So the race will come down to which strategy will win, more expensive hardware, but more content. Or will it be cheaper hardware and less content?

Personally, I think if BD does come out on top, it will take longer for people to adopt it, because hardware and software costs more, which means it will take more time to get to the price point where mass amounts of people are buying it. Sony isn't helping matters any by undercutting the prices of all the other participating CE's with the PS3. Any delay in adoption means there is more of a chance of the next better technology will come along, and if people haven't fully embraced BD by then, BD and HD-DVD could both be obsolete formats. With the onset of broadband distribution, I think this threat is very real.

On the other hand, HD-DVD is cheaper, and likely to reach a price point that mass consumers can accept. However, will they keep waiting for studio support before buying into it because BD has more content, or will they buy into it and hope content comes to them.

I personally know that if I were head of a studio, I would choose money now over money later (even if it is just a year later). I think it may take BD at least 1 additional year to get to an acceptance price point, when compared to HD-DVD. Thats a year of potentially higher revenues lost, which means money that you could have had, but let go past. Rarely is that ever a smart business move. I would support both formats unless the BD or HD-DVD associations were giving me enough comps (wainving $4 mil a year in royalties, or advertising, etc.) to cover the amount of sales I would miss out on by not supporting both. This may be easy for the associations to do in the first few years when sales are very low, but comes increasing difficult as sales pickup. If the war drags on into 2008 at remains basically st alemated, I think you will see exclusive studios going neutral (the only exception is Sony, and perhaps Fox, who have a close relationship to Sony) which will only drag the war out even longer.
wnorris is offline  
Old 01-10-2007, 10:51 AM
Senior Member
 
rare-air's Avatar
 
Join Date: Feb 2006
Posts: 314
Mentioned: 0 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 0 Post(s)
Liked: 14
Quote:
Originally Posted by Wesley5 View Post

It's a very valid comparison. New PS3 owners are likely to sample a few BD movies and see what the hype is, the real question is afterwards (the initial surge), are they impressed enough to continue to buy BD movies ? Now that's the $billion question still waits for an answer. PSP is one relevant data point. Dust will settle in probably a few months

This is the one question whose answer will settle the format war.
You can probably divide up the PS3 crowd into segments to try and get to the answer to this question:

1. Gamers only
2. Gamers with an interest in BluRay and w/ HDTV systems
3. Video only buffs

My assertion is:
Forget about group 1 it is a game machine only with few if any bluRay movies purchased. More likely a few rentals.

Group 2 buying BluRay buying habits will be influenced by the games that are coming out. If new PS3 games are coming out it seems that many would purchase the game rather than a BluRay movie, as it is primarily a game machine. The games and BluRay's are competing for limited disposable income. Many of the younger crowd which purchased PS3's will have must less disposable income compared to the older crowd. I have no hard numbers but it seems the PS3 is more likely to be owned by someone in there 20's rather than 30+ crowd. In the end this will limit the overall BluRay sales. Also if you are busy playing games hours a day you have no time to watch BluRay movies again another limiting factor to consider.

Group3 is the only hope for serious BluRay sales. What percentage of total units have gone to serious video buffs is unknown but as stated the next few months will give that answer.

-Craig
rare-air is offline  
Old 01-10-2007, 10:57 AM
Member
 
apexmi's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2006
Posts: 197
Mentioned: 0 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 0 Post(s)
Liked: 10
Quote:
Originally Posted by nbay View Post

Wickywoo will be on a minute to explain it all.



Buckle up and hold my beer I wanna try somethin'
apexmi is offline  
Old 01-10-2007, 11:25 AM
AVS Special Member
 
bitemymac's Avatar
 
Join Date: Nov 2005
Location: City of Urbana, MD
Posts: 1,182
Mentioned: 0 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 0 Post(s)
Liked: 10
Quote:
Originally Posted by Wesley5 View Post

It's a very valid comparison. New PS3 owners are likely to sample a few BD movies and see what the hype is, the real question is afterwards (the initial surge), are they impressed enough to continue to buy BD movies ? Now that's the $billion question still waits for an answer. PSP is one relevant data point. Dust will settle in probably a few months

Very valid points. However, if the PS3 sales continue, then the surge becomes part of the average. In the hind side, PS3 sales have been leveling off or even declining as the demands have been saturated as shown on many store shelves as well as online shops. It's my prediction that as soon as end of January, the BD movie sales would drop and would be leveled off below HD-DVD again. Looks like there will be plenty of HD-DVD titles being released for 2007 and who knows, and can't really ignore what the porn HD-DVD's would do to the HD-DVD player sales.
bitemymac is offline  
Old 01-10-2007, 11:31 AM
 
briankmonkey's Avatar
 
Join Date: May 2004
Posts: 13,959
Mentioned: 0 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 0 Post(s)
Liked: 10
Thanks Grubert.

So much for the 16:1 then the 11:1 then 8:1.. Now we are down to 2:1, what a beautiful trend. lol
briankmonkey is offline  
Old 01-10-2007, 11:32 AM
AVS Special Member
 
BuGsArEtAsTy's Avatar
 
Join Date: Aug 2001
Location: AVS Forum
Posts: 7,128
Mentioned: 0 Post(s)
Tagged: 0 Thread(s)
Quoted: 6 Post(s)
Liked: 10
I think HD DVD and Blu-ray will be in the same ballpark of sales. ie. Less than a factor of 2:1 in favour of one or the other, in the next 6 months. If that is true, and continues beyond that, then that stalemate is solidified, and we'll see more of a +R/-R like result of the war.

BTW, while I don't want to completely ignore pr0n, I don't think they'll make a huge impact here any time soon. However, HD DVD does have the advantage here. It seems the pr0n "studios" that claimed they'd be Blu-ray are actually releasing on HD DVD instead. Not sure why. Interactive features? Maybe cost?
BuGsArEtAsTy is offline  
 
Thread Tools


Forum Jump: 

Posting Rules  
You may not post new threads
You may not post replies
You may not post attachments
You may not edit your posts

BB code is On
Smilies are On
[IMG] code is On
HTML code is Off
Trackbacks are Off
Pingbacks are Off
Refbacks are Off