Hardware vs Content...The chicken or the egg? - AVS Forum
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post #1 of 4 Old 01-10-2007, 06:47 AM - Thread Starter
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Hopefully, this thread can focus on historical information and logic rather than blind support for one format over the other.

Can anyone present historical facts or well thought out reasoning behind the tipping point for mass distribution of movies when there was split among content providers and hardware providers? (If this has been addressed in a thread, please point me there; my search came up empty.)

What I'm getting at is that from my perspective I see a stalemate on the HD DVD versus Blu-Ray camp for years.

If HD DVD produces lower cost players at a price the masses can accept, will the public buy them if they look at the content and get discouraged by the fact that ALL their favorite movies are not on that format. Alternatively, will the masses buy an expensive (or low cost) BD player only to see that they will miss some of their favorite films on HD DVD?!

The above would mean that there is no meaningful hardware penetration by either camp so no reason for any studio to switch to the other.

Let's not forget about the total size of the market (meaning HDTV owners), it really isn't that large. When content and hardware providers force consumers to choose, it likely means slow uptake.

In the case of the migration to DVD, it is safe to say that the number of TVs capable of using that format in its infancy was significantly larger than the number HDTVs today?
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post #2 of 4 Old 01-10-2007, 06:59 AM
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I stated something similar earlier this morning. Everyone talks about how lower prices will attract J6P, but they conveniently forget the majority of J6Ps doesn't even have nor WANT a HDTV.

It's a completely different game than DVD for that very reason. DVDs played on our standard def TVs and now our HD TVs. The new formats don't.
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post #3 of 4 Old 01-10-2007, 07:04 AM
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At least in the gaming world, Hardware has always been secondary to content (and illegal back room deals)

The NES was greatly technically inferior to the Sega Master System, but thanks to their back room deals and mass of games and install base, they controlled 90+% of the market

Genesis vs SNES(like 360 and PS3) was kind-of a wash, Genesis was faster and had full stereo sound support, SNES had better graphics

Playstation had the titles, and so they beat out Saturn and N64 (thanks to major bungling on both Nintendo and Sega's part)

The XBox is a very noticeable leap above the PS2, but PS2 still controlled 60%+ of the market, and had far more software support.

It's all about the names on the box, and how many great titles you have.

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What I'm getting at is that from my perspective I see a stalemate on the HD DVD versus Blu-Ray camp for years.

Not going to happen. when the HD-disc isle gets to where it needs an entire isle on its own (probably sometime in the next 18 months), the retailers are going to make a choice to save their shelf space. That choice based on current information will be BR. If the rumors are true, Warner and Paramount are only required to support HD-DVD for that much time, and if BR keeps moving like it is, they'll kill their HD releases over the rest of 08, slowly trickle it down.

The retailers and the studios decide who wins. Not the consumer. Because if the retailers don't provide it, the consumer can't buy it.
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post #4 of 4 Old 01-10-2007, 07:36 AM
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If content is king, there is no earthly reason to buy Hidef DVD. They have paltry catalog compared to 100,000 DVDs and are unlikely to reach that figure anytime soon (if ever).

Most probably both hd dvd & bd are headed ro niche status.

Afterall no format has succeeded on better quality alone. Convinience is the more important factor (see mp3 vs SACD/DVD-A).

That is why I think if any hidef dvd has to succeed it has to lower the prices so much that people will buy one of their players when replacing a broken dvd player or can be given away free with a HDTV. So, this can at best be a slow & steady chipping away at DVD - may be after 5 or so years, it will have a good % of movies sold compared to dvd.
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