Glasgow says up to 3 years for $299 to $399 BD price point - AVS Forum
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post #1 of 81 Old 01-17-2007, 11:06 AM - Thread Starter
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When will Blu-ray players drop in price to become a mainstream product?

Glasgow: If you go back to when DVDs came into play, it took about three years until they got into price points of $299 to $399. I suspect it's about the same thing here with Blu-ray. I think it's going to take up to three years to get down to those price points, possibly a little longer. But I would assume it's similar to DVD.

We have some control over (the cost of the) components. There are a lot of components in that product. Once you get volumes up, you get yields up, and you get efficiencies up; the prices go down on the components.


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post #2 of 81 Old 01-17-2007, 11:09 AM
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That won't work at all. They need to be at 299 in 18 months and 399 by years end.
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post #3 of 81 Old 01-17-2007, 11:12 AM
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Is the HD DVD planning a $299 stand alone within 18 months? All I see are $499. I'm not baiting, I just didn't remember it being announced. I'm thinking a stand-alone might be better than the 360 add-on if I go HD DVD.

I don't think that's unreasonable based on what I remember about DVD pricing.
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post #4 of 81 Old 01-17-2007, 11:13 AM
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Some of the Chinese players are bound to be quite a bit cheaper than the Toshiba.
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post #5 of 81 Old 01-17-2007, 11:16 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Chris_TC View Post

Some of the Chinese players are bound to be quite a bit cheaper than the Toshiba.

Given the lack of quality control on Toshiba players so far, these should be just dandy. Toshiba needs better software than cheaper hardware.

No animals were harmed in the creation of this sentence.
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post #6 of 81 Old 01-17-2007, 11:20 AM
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Im pretty picky about this stuff, as I assume that most people on this forum are, and I am very pleased with the Toshiba A1. The issues that various toshiba players have will be of little concern to most people that would be buying a $200 Chinese player. Crushed Blacks and things like that are going to have little meaning to these people.
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post #7 of 81 Old 01-17-2007, 11:29 AM
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I think there will certainly be $299-399 HD DVD players by the end of 2007. Especially if Microsoft can get their player to market. The Onkyo player probably won't sell for more than $399.

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post #8 of 81 Old 01-17-2007, 11:34 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by kjtatum View Post

Is the HD DVD planning a $299 stand alone within 18 months? All I see are $499. I'm not baiting, I just didn't remember it being announced. I'm thinking a stand-alone might be better than the 360 add-on if I go HD DVD.

I don't think that's unreasonable based on what I remember about DVD pricing.

Best Buy and other retailers sell out the Toshiba as fast as they get them in for $499. You can get them for under $400 online.

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post #9 of 81 Old 01-17-2007, 11:40 AM
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I doubt Stringer was talking about any company other than Sony.

If Sony will have players $299 to $399 in 36 months, what about Samsung, LG, or a Chinese company?

Sammy right now has $799 to counter a Sony $999. Do you expect Sony to drop below Sammy offerings?

Gary


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post #10 of 81 Old 01-17-2007, 11:41 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by tranzparentl View Post

I think there will certainly be $299-399 HD DVD players by the end of 2007. Especially if Microsoft can get their player to market. The Onkyo player probably won't sell for more than $399.

I suspect $349 for the Chinese, and $399 for Toshiba, by the fall. Assuming Toshiba doesn't let the MS design have the low end.

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post #11 of 81 Old 01-17-2007, 11:43 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by efranzen View Post

Glasgow: If you go back to when DVDs came into play, it took about three years until they got into price points of $299 to $399. I suspect it's about the same thing here with Blu-ray. I think it's going to take up to three years to get down to those price points, possibly a little longer. But I would assume it's similar to DVD.

I don't know about the Sony DVD players, but I bought my Panasonic A110 2nd generation player for $399 in April of 1998-one year after the DVD format debuted.
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post #12 of 81 Old 01-17-2007, 11:46 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Snickering Hound View Post

Best Buy and other retailers sell out the Toshiba as fast as they get them in for $499. You can get them for under $400 online.

I have checked in store pickup on bestbuy.com maybe 5 times in the last week and every time there have been at least 5 stores listed locally where I could just go get one. I went in one and could have bought the one they had. A couple days later my friend reported that they had 3 in stock. Then a Walmart he went to had the HD-A2W in stock. This is in the Seattle area. I have checked the amazon site quite a few over the last couple of weeks and I don't think I've seen them sold out on there even once.

As far as the subject here, I think the Blu-ray camp needs to move much quicker that Stringer stated.

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post #13 of 81 Old 01-17-2007, 11:49 AM
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by stockmonkey2000 View Post

Im pretty picky about this stuff, as I assume that most people on this forum are, and I am very pleased with the Toshiba A1. The issues that various toshiba players have will be of little concern to most people that would be buying a $200 Chinese player. Crushed Blacks and things like that are going to have little meaning to these people.

I don't know, have you seen how many are up for sale here?! As well as tons of threads of complaints.


on topic: I do think prices need to drop much faster for the general public.
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post #14 of 81 Old 01-17-2007, 12:01 PM
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Snickering Hound View Post

Best Buy and other retailers sell out the Toshiba as fast as they get them in for $499. You can get them for under $400 online.

the best buys around me all have exactly 2 of these units, and they've had them for a while (i can tell by the dust on them). they don't move off shelves, although they are hidden in a back corner of the AV section so they don't exactly get a lot of attention.

the sony and samsung blu-ray players are also usually in stock, but that seems to be due to restock, they seem to sell a couple a week. they might be out for a day or two but quickly get new ones in to sell. it doesnt hurt that these units both have sexy endcaps and lots of promotion.
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post #15 of 81 Old 01-17-2007, 12:03 PM - Thread Starter
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Quote:
Originally Posted by briankmonkey View Post

I don't know, have you seen how many are up for sale here?!

Did you even bother to read all of the A1 for sale posts? They are selling them because they upgraded to the A2.
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post #16 of 81 Old 01-17-2007, 12:04 PM
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This is not good news for blu-ray.
I bought my HD DVD player for $364 almost 6 months ago. HD DVD players will hit the $300 price point by this summer (Amazon, and other online sellers), and $200 in less than 18 months.
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post #17 of 81 Old 01-17-2007, 12:07 PM
 
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Blu-ray is already at 499. this year it will hit 399, in 18 months probably 299 or less.

HD-dvd will probably not hit 200 for at least 2 years (about the time blu-ray does too), but by then it won't matter, as the format will be dead due to lack of content.
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post #18 of 81 Old 01-17-2007, 12:07 PM
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I can walk into any FS or BB where I am and walk out with a least a dozen Samsung BD players and leave lots for everyone else. They've slashed the price and they're not selling! Both these formats have a tough row to hoe, but price does matter and whoever gets to that impulse buying price first is going to make a big dent. I'll put my money on HD DVD - if it gets a player out for $199.00 its going to sell an awfull lot very quickly.

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post #19 of 81 Old 01-17-2007, 12:09 PM
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I am convinced there will be an HD DVD player at $399 in 2007, especially since a few people have already gotten the Toshiba HD-A2 new for that price (including 3 free movies). Robert was selling it for $449, but IIRC, that was with 2 extra free movies (on top of the 3 free ones from Toshiba) and free shipping.

I'm not as convinced about $299 for HD DVD in 2007, but I do think it's possible, and basically guaranteed for 2008. $299 in 2010 for Blu-ray would be a total disaster for Blu-ray.


Quote:
Originally Posted by Jarod M View Post

I don't know about the Sony DVD players, but I bought my Panasonic A110 2nd generation player for $399 in April of 1998-one year after the DVD format debuted.

I got my RCA 5200P (A100 rebadge) in Feb. 1998 for $299, and that's with a free copy of Dances With Wolves. (The only way you could buy that DVD at the time was to buy an RCA player actually, since the movie hadn't been released yet.)
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post #20 of 81 Old 01-17-2007, 12:10 PM
 
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Originally Posted by Deja Vu View Post

I can walk into any FS or BB where I am and walk out with a least a dozen Samsung BD players and leave lots for everyone else.

best buy doesnt stock more than 3-4 samsung players at a time, so much for your credibility
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post #21 of 81 Old 01-17-2007, 12:17 PM
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I find the OP very interesting. I see people here w/different allegiances are trying to spin the comments in different ways but the following things seem true/likely, no matter what:

1.) Even the Toshiba HD-A2 player seems like it is set to be sold at, at least, $399 street this year. I actually bought the A2 from Best Buy last week at "their MSRP" for it - $449.00. Plus, I got two free HD DVDs along with it as part of a promotion. Now you take into account the things that are "the Spring release of the HD-A20" and the phenomena this is "Christmas/the holiday season" - and you have two serious events that will highly motivate Toshiba's aggressiveness to drop the MSRP on the A2 even further. Mix that reality with online street prices/promotions - and things get even cheaper. All this and to say nothing of the A1's, X-A1's that may still be floating around. Though not many were created - bargain-lovers who still want a well-reviewed/quality player may be "getting into the game" through finding the supply of these on eBay/elsewhere.

2.) The Broadcom/MS platform, Chinese player announcements, all those brands that are building them now - seem guaranteed/designed to put players out in Walmart for less than the cost of the A2. I mean, if not, then how will these players be competing/selling anyway? The answer is that they would not - the price on these Chinese players must be VERY aggressive. But I'll say this too - that's only IF they WILL actually come out this year - things look good from what we know so far but we don't have a crystal ball.

~SO, based on the above, - it seems very, very likely (if not to be the HD DVD groups ENTIRE general strategy for the war in this year - period) that HD DVD will have sub-$400 players out this year. Sub-$350 is even likely. And sub-$300 isn't out of the question.

Now note - these are stand-alones we're talking about here - if people want the absolute cheapest solutions for either format and don't care about stand-alone operability/appeal - then they are going for the ultra-cheap 360 add-on (if you own a 360 already especially) and the super-bang-for-your-buck PS3.

Now those prices I quoted for HD DVD stand-alones - based on the OP comments and what we've seen from the BD group so far - don't seem destined for BD anywhere near the same short-term time-frame. Maybe they aren't destined for BD stand-alones for even the longer term - if you believe the "3 years" comment.

However, that's fine. And can be taken however you want it. Generally, this is stuff we already knew. We all know the basic HD DVD strategy is cheap stand-alones and the BD one is high-volume exclusive software (especially for things as they seem set for this next year).

It can be debated as to which strategy is better. That was not my point here. I was just trying lay out an accurate view of the current "state of the union" with regards to this price issue.

We'll see what works. But, hell, neither the price or the software strategy may matter much anyway until J6P has had yet another full year to really get sick of SD DVDs, further upgrade his TV, and/or finally see what the value of HD/home theater really is.

And by then the strategies/landscapes may have changed a little anyway. However, I will say this - as many analysts have suggested - and due to continued Sony OP comments like this - it does still seem like Sony needs to have a quantum shift in their customer demand understanding. J6P doesn't want stuff like UMDs, high hardware pricing, arrogance/mis-steps in PR, premium products that are more complex than convenient, short-lived gimmicks and what have you.

Both camps need to remember what made products like the iPod and the Razor phone successful. Quick new hardware introductions/upgrades, with increasingly aggressive pricing, ease-of-use, speed-of-use, "advanced" functionality that is intuitive to learn, sleek designs, hardware that allows better performance/usage of "content" people already own an abundance of (Mp3s, CDs), and then finally enough "other" new and/or easy-to-obtain "content" to also satisfy/entertain them.
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post #22 of 81 Old 01-17-2007, 12:26 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by briankmonkey View Post

I don't know, have you seen how many are up for sale here?! As well as tons of threads of complaints.


on topic: I do think prices need to drop much faster for the general public.

That was part of my point. While the AVS forum is full of complaints about black crush / DVI issues and other esoteric issues, The average buyer will be watching their $200 HD DVD player and enjoying the picture regardless of how many issues it has. Assuming the issues that J6P will care about are resolved, such as skipping and slow load times are resolved, I dont think that most of the issues we stew over on this forum are going to matter.
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post #23 of 81 Old 01-17-2007, 12:36 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by stockmonkey2000 View Post

That was part of my point. While the AVS forum is full of complaints about black crush / DVI issues and other esoteric issues, The average buyer will be watching their $200 HD DVD player and enjoying the picture regardless of how many issues it has. Assuming the issues that J6P will care about are resolved, such as skipping and slow load times are resolved, I dont think that most of the issues we stew over on this forum are going to matter.

"skipping and slow load times" - yes, and weren't these issues generally resolved for good (in the vein you suggest) - thanks to the fact that there is the 360 add-on drive - already released two months ago - already at less than $200 - and already with generally fast load times and no skipping.

Bodes very well, if you ask me, for NEW Chinese players/whatever w/"2nd or 3rd-gen" drives/whatever - that will retail aggressively in the 2nd half of 07.
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post #24 of 81 Old 01-17-2007, 12:37 PM
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Blu-ray is already at 499. this year it will hit 399, in 18 months probably 299 or less.

No Dixie, the PS3 is $499. There is no standalone Blu-ray player on the market for $499. And since the PS3 isn't dropping in price anytime soon, there will be no $399 Blu-ray player this year unless someone in the Samsung/Pioneer/Etc: group wants to sell their players at a loss as substantial as the PS3.
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post #25 of 81 Old 01-17-2007, 12:41 PM
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The Toshiba A1 at my local Best Buy is $300. I was very surprised to see that price.
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post #26 of 81 Old 01-17-2007, 12:46 PM
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I'm leaning toward a PS3 for $499 simply because of the content. I'll pick up an HD DVD player when it drops to $200-$300 for a reputable brand. I just don't like the look of the 360 add-on and definitely want HDMI support.

Honestly, I think dual format players will be the norm in a couple years and if one format loses, then legacy players will be dime a dozen. How many DVD players played VCDs? Tons. (not really a great comparison...)
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post #27 of 81 Old 01-17-2007, 12:47 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ctiq21 View Post

The Toshiba A1 at my local Best Buy is $300. I was very surprised to see that price.

Man, I wish there were some in stock where I live (A2 is out there only) - I would buy one for my bed-room at the price in an instant (and you'd get 3 free HD DVDs too, right?!). I'm already upset that I can't listen to audio commentaries/such on my HD DVDs - when I'm lying in bed - since I only have an SD DVD player in that room. Course, that's where the combo HD DVD discs are nice - but still, having to crank up my home theater just to listen the audio commentary on the Pitch Black HD DVD last night was less than ideal.
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post #28 of 81 Old 01-17-2007, 12:48 PM
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Michael Mullis View Post

No Dixie, the PS3 is $499. There is no standalone Blu-ray player on the market for $499. And since the PS3 isn't dropping in price anytime soon, there will be no $399 Blu-ray player this year unless someone in the Samsung/Pioneer/Etc: group wants to sell their players at a loss as substantial as the PS3.

the ps3 is a standalone blu-ray player, with the ability to play great games too. trying to take the ps3 out of the equation really shows how weak your position supporting the hd-dvd price advantage is.

and if toshiba can take a loss selling each of their players, then im sure the rest of those guys can too.
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post #29 of 81 Old 01-17-2007, 12:52 PM
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Given that the PS3 is operating at a loss given the amount of tech in it, the ironing out of the manufacturing issues for the PS3, and its starting at $499, I can't really fathom why Sony doesn't just drop all the extraneous tech from the PS3 and plop down a $399 BD player. Makes no sense to me. Clearly it could be done. Its not just the BD drive causing the high cost of the PS3 and BD as a dominant format would more than make up for losses from a $399 player.

What the hell is Sony thinking there? They could do it. They NEED to do something like that.
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post #30 of 81 Old 01-17-2007, 12:53 PM
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the ps3 is a standalone blu-ray player, with the ability to play great games too. trying to take the ps3 out of the equation really shows how weak your position supporting the hd-dvd price advantage is.




and I don't even side with a format.
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