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post #271 of 9375 Old 01-31-2007, 11:38 PM
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Originally Posted by Kosty View Post

The HD DVD numbers are absurd if you have any attach rate at all for HD A2 sales.

Toshiba estimated 1.8 million HD DVD units to be sold this year with a minimum volume of 100,000 units a month shipped from Febuary on

Silly to think those would sell those few movies.

100,000 per month ?? At that rate all they will be selling is a lot of warehouse space to store them..

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post #272 of 9375 Old 01-31-2007, 11:49 PM
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Originally Posted by TwinTurboZX View Post

Kosty, give it up already. You're embarrassing yourself trying to refute hard data.

Yes, a whole 2 weeks worth. I'm convinced, HD DVD is dead.

I'll say one thing, for as smart as some people seem to be on this forum at times (and others not so much), a lot of the posts in this thread are irrational.

I hate to say it for the millionth time, but this format war isn't going to be decided by the posters in this forum nor is it going to be decided on a $500-$600 gaming console/blue player. The PS3 price is going to have to drop drastically for it to soley win the format war.

The HD market is so miniscule right now; making these numbers mean so little. Show me this trend for the next 12 months and then we're talkin'.

I'll echo other people, first to $200 players or less wins. If the blue boys can accomplish that before HD DVD, they'll win. Of course, this is just my humble opinion.
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post #273 of 9375 Old 01-31-2007, 11:56 PM
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I'll say one thing, for as smart as some people seem to be on this forum at times (and others not so much), a lot of the posts in this thread are irrational.

There is a definite lack of level-headedness, surprisingly from some of whom one would never expect such behavior.
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post #274 of 9375 Old 02-01-2007, 12:55 AM
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Originally Posted by Kosty View Post

Now if the trend continues until April 1st and is not effected by the HD A2 launch, that's another story.

You already told us once that the Blu-ray sales went up for a couple of weeks or so after the PS3 launch but that the HD-A2 launch brought them back. That was December. But the trend on Amazon showed the Blu-ray sales continuing to improve even after the HD-A2 launch (whenever you want to count that) and now these numbers from Videoscan support that the first 2 weeks of January really went Blu-ray's way even while the Amazon rankings showed HD DVD ahead:



And since then the Amazon rankings have shown a trend more in Blu-ray's favor than the first 2 weeks of January.

I expect that the Videoscan numbers for the week ending January 21st won't look as bad for HD DVD. Given your position before about HD DVD pulling ahead by even more than they were, what is your position now about when you expect HD DVD to take the lead (and hold it for at least a day or two) on thedvdwars.com site once again?

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post #275 of 9375 Old 02-01-2007, 12:56 AM
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Originally Posted by Curish View Post

Yes, a whole 2 weeks worth. I'm convinced, HD DVD is dead.

Okay. How many weeks you need for BD to trump HD-DVD sales? Just asking.

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I hate to say it for the millionth time, but this format war isn't going to be decided by the posters in this forum nor is it going to be decided on a $500-$600 gaming console/blue player. The PS3 price is going to have to drop drastically for it to soley win the format war.

No doubt, people who posts on AVSF is not J6P. However, in both the Playstation and the BD player forum, more threads are created by new PS3 owners asking for help in setting up BD playback.

I doubt that even SCE is going to push the PS3 as the primary product to end the war. Manufacturing productivity, as good and as fast as they can make the PS3, still has limits. Other BD players will have to take up the slack. Also some people are just allergic to using the PS3 as their BD playback unit.

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The HD market is so miniscule right now; making these numbers mean so little. Show me this trend for the next 12 months and then we're talkin'.

Fox at CES showed a sales projection through the end of the first quarter of 2007. You should take a look at that graph (it did get the dates wrong).

Right now BD trumps HD-DVD by about 2.6 to 1 (certainly more than 2). If Universal executives wait until it gets to 10:1, they are not doing their job right. 5:1 for me is a good ratio to throw in the towel.

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I'll echo other people, first to $200 players or less wins. If the blue boys can accomplish that before HD DVD, they'll win. Of course, this is just my humble opinion.

Let me ask you this. If you're saying that J6P will get into HD-DVD in droves when US$200 players come into the market, what do you say to those who want to get into the market now?

1) Do you tell them to wait until US$200 players come into the market?
2) Do you tell them that HD-DVD has Universal as an exclusive studio and BD has Sony PE, Disney and Fox as its exclusives?


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post #276 of 9375 Old 02-01-2007, 01:09 AM
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Originally Posted by WriteSimple View Post

Right now BD trumps HD-DVD by about 2.6 to 1 (certainly more than 2). If Universal executives wait until it gets to 10:1, they are not doing their job right. 5:1 for me is a good ratio to throw in the towel.

fuad

heh. So it's purely a matter of the ratio for you? You don't think maybe volume is a little more important? Can you show me where the volume of units sold data is listed? And do you have an opinion on what the level of volume would be for an exclusive studio to go neutral, an opinion based on some meaningful data?
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post #277 of 9375 Old 02-01-2007, 01:10 AM
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Originally Posted by WriteSimple View Post

Right now BD trumps HD-DVD by about 2.6 to 1 (certainly more than 2). If Universal executives wait until it gets to 10:1, they are not doing their job right. 5:1 for me is a good ratio to throw in the towel.

Even with that, Universal still had 4 of the top 10 selling titles year-to-date as of January 25:

Quote:


Since the format's inception in April 2006, USHE has released 60 titles on HD DVD, and currently boasts four of the top 10 best-selling HD DVDs year-to-date, including Casino, Serenity, Fearless and Miami Vice.

http://home.businesswire.com/portal/...92&newsLang=en


So Universal is doing pretty good right where they are.
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post #278 of 9375 Old 02-01-2007, 01:13 AM
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Originally Posted by jim_r View Post

Even with that, Universal still had 4 of the top 10 selling titles year-to-date as of January 25:
...
So Universal is doing pretty good right where they are.

They had 4 of the 10 best selling HD DVDs. How does that tell you anything about how HD DVD is doing compared to Blu-ray or how they might do on Blu-ray?

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post #279 of 9375 Old 02-01-2007, 01:18 AM
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Originally Posted by darinp2 View Post

They had 4 of the 10 best selling HD DVDs. How does that tell you anything about how HD DVD is doing compared to Blu-ray or how they might do on Blu-ray?

--Darin

According to Warner's data the presented at CES, Universal accounts for 25% of HD-DVD/BD software market.

So ya, they're doing ok.
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post #280 of 9375 Old 02-01-2007, 01:22 AM
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Originally Posted by Capek View Post

According to Warner's data the presented at CES, Universal accounts for 25% of HD-DVD/BD software market.

So ya, they're doing ok.

I think they are doing okay, although having given up more of their titles to do it than just about any studio, but what really matters for studio decisions are the future sales, of which runrate is an important factor to look at. If it wasn't we could look at total VHS sales for the last couple of decades and get all excited. If the trends from the Amazon rankings and those Videoscan numbers continue they won't be doing alright as far as future sales. When it was 3:1 in favor of HD DVD in August or so the Blu-ray camp did something to change that. Now it looks like the HD DVD camp needs to somehow change the currect trend, unless Blu-ray somehow does it on its own (which I doubt with even better titles coming out).

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post #281 of 9375 Old 02-01-2007, 01:34 AM
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Ok, I read all 10 pages of this thread and I still don't get why the BD supporters are claiming they have won the war.

The numbers as I understand them show BD has sold less discs since inception than HD. "Yay we sold less discs so we won?" Catching up is not winning. How is this a clear victory in the overall scheme of things? If anything it's a tie right now.

They have had 1 great month during a time when HD released next to nothing.

Looking at the big picture the install base for both formats is small. A lot of new PS3 owners are checking out Blu-ray movies right now at a time when there are few good games for the PS3. It should have been obvious to anyone that BD would outsell HD in the month of January.

Having said that I don't see how anything is over. Just as last year when HD was vastly outselling BD all the BD supporters were preaching patience until the PS3 arrived, I say we will see how things play out when the new wave of HD players rolls out in the 2nd quarter of 2007. Cheap players could once again tip the balance the other way.

There are also some BIG titles coming for HD. Matrix. Harry Potter. Jaws. Jurrasic Park. Hitchcock. Even though some of those are also going to be BD for someone coming into the hi-def arena those cheap players and great movies will make many consider HD as the way to go for them.

HD still has some big cards to play. Chalk up a battle to BD but the "war" is hardly over.
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post #282 of 9375 Old 02-01-2007, 01:35 AM
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Originally Posted by Capek View Post

According to Warner's data the presented at CES, Universal accounts for 25% of HD-DVD/BD software market.

So ya, they're doing ok.

By the looks of this data though, that 25% is probably rapidly dwindling.
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post #283 of 9375 Old 02-01-2007, 01:36 AM - Thread Starter
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Originally Posted by joshd2012 View Post

Congrats to Grubert - Your post made The Digital Bits (though, he didn't give you credit for finding the data).

Yeah, I noticed. highdefdigest too. Granted, the information was in the open. But still...

Come to think of it, in the past couple days at least three important news stories I posted on AVS (the Warner France slate (with IME titles appearing only on HD DVD), the specs for the Spanish HD DVD release of Underworld Evolution and now this) appeared hours later on DVD information sites such as dvdtimes or thedigitalbits.

Anybody hiring?

PS: I'm augmenting the initial post to make it more clear.

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post #284 of 9375 Old 02-01-2007, 01:46 AM
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Originally Posted by darinp2 View Post

I think they are doing okay, although having given up more of their titles to do it than just about any studio, but what really matters for studio decisions are the future sales, of which runrate is an important factor to look at. If it wasn't we could look at total VHS sales for the last couple of decades and get all excited. If the trends from the Amazon rankings and those Videoscan numbers continue they won't be doing alright as far as future sales. When it was 3:1 in favor of HD DVD in August or so the Blu-ray camp did something to change that. Now it looks like the HD DVD camp needs to somehow change the currect trend, unless Blu-ray somehow does it on its own (which I doubt with even better titles coming out).

--Darin

Could the stats also indicate a trend whereby HD DVD owner stop buying titles and adopt a wait and see attitude, or there is a switch-over effect too?
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post #285 of 9375 Old 02-01-2007, 02:41 AM
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Originally Posted by ckong View Post

Could the stats also indicate a trend whereby HD DVD owner stop buying titles and adopt a wait and see attitude, or there is a switch-over effect too?

I think it's simply a fact of there being a rather large influx of potential buyers in a short amount of time for BD. Lets face it, until the end of December or so, there were a few thousand potential BD buyers in existence. Whereas the number of HD-DVD software buyers has seen the steady growth you would expect with a movie format, BD has enjoyed an initial spike you would expect with the release of a gaming console. A quick influx of potential BD software buyers will of course bring with it a surge of BD software sales, but to take from that some indication of a change in the buying habits of HD-DVD supporters, well, that is just not supported by the data.
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post #286 of 9375 Old 02-01-2007, 03:15 AM - Thread Starter
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Originally Posted by paulbh View Post

It will be interesting keeping tabs on these data points throughout 2007 to see if this trend continues and how volatile it is on a weekly basis (i.e. how significant of an impact is a new release).

Of course, that is what I intend to do.

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post #287 of 9375 Old 02-01-2007, 03:25 AM
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Of course, that is what I intend to do.

Do you know when the next data point in this particular series will be available?
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post #288 of 9375 Old 02-01-2007, 03:27 AM
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Originally Posted by darinp2 View Post

You already told us once that the Blu-ray sales went up for a couple of weeks or so after the PS3 launch but that the HD-A2 launch brought them back. That was December. But the trend on Amazon showed the Blu-ray sales continuing to improve even after the HD-A2 launch (whenever you want to count that) and now these numbers from Videoscan support that the first 2 weeks of January really went Blu-ray's way even while the Amazon rankings showed HD DVD ahead:



And since then the Amazon rankings have shown a trend more in Blu-ray's favor than the first 2 weeks of January.

I expect that the Videoscan numbers for the week ending January 21st won't look as bad for HD DVD. Given your position before about HD DVD pulling ahead by even more than they were, what is your position now about when you expect HD DVD to take the lead (and hold it for at least a day or two) on thedvdwars.com site once again?

--Darin

I was wrong about that being the PS3 launch spike. The sales figures for movies look to me now that they lag the hardware sales by a couple weeks. Remember we were wondering about the LACK of impact on the Amazons sales figures for the first two or three weeks of the PS3 launch.

We also also have a bit more data and was of looking at it from the tracking sites now.

The most valid indicators to me are the older head to head title comparisons that have been released in both formats, such as MI III, Superman Returns or Tim Burtons Corpse Bride. Check out the 14 day custom trend lines from hdgamedb.com. Lot less joy there for Blu-ray. Same as the number of titles in the top 1000 and top 10000 rankings.

I think that the Blu-ray lead is much less now than HD DVDs lead was throughout the entire last year and has been to short to project into the end of the quarter, let alone the year, or into the end of the format war.

Last years comparisons showed that standalone sales and attach rate favor HD DVD over Blu-ray, probably as a result to HD DVD lower price advantage.

The last couple weeks sales data are a lagging indicator of the PS3's pre holiday sales spike and are probably to early to see the effect of the later HD A2 move into inventory and sales. They also show the clear advantage of the amount of the lack of HD DVD new titles being sold to the existing HD DVD player base.

A lot more PS3 have to be sold to get this slight lead for the Blu-ray movie sales and HD DVD has to sell less to stay competitive. If HD DVD sells as many units as Toshiba is moving into retail inventory the sales pattern will shift again.

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post #289 of 9375 Old 02-01-2007, 03:31 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Grubert View Post

Yeah, I noticed. highdefdigest too. Granted, the information was in the open. But still...

Come to think of it, in the past couple days at least three important news stories I posted on AVS (the Warner France slate (with IME titles appearing only on HD DVD), the specs for the Spanish HD DVD release of Underworld Evolution and now this) appeared hours later on DVD information sites such as dvdtimes or thedigitalbits.

Anybody hiring?

PS: I'm augmenting the initial post to make it more clear.

Your one of the most appreciated posters here in the way that your posts create discussion.

Well done sir. Keep it up.

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post #290 of 9375 Old 02-01-2007, 03:35 AM
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Originally Posted by Capek View Post

I think it's simply a fact of there being a rather large influx of potential buyers in a short amount of time for BD. Lets face it, until the end of December or so, there were a few thousand potential BD buyers in existence. Whereas the number of HD-DVD software buyers has seen the steady growth you would expect with a movie format, BD has enjoyed an initial spike you would expect with the release of a gaming console. A quick influx of potential BD software buyers will of course bring with it a surge of BD software sales, but to take from that some indication of a change in the buying habits of HD-DVD supporters, well, that is just not supported by the data.

Best 200 words in this thread.

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post #291 of 9375 Old 02-01-2007, 03:43 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Grubert View Post

December standalone player sales in Germany

HD DVD (Toshiba HD-E1) sold 600 units (yes, six hundred players)
BD (Samsung BD-P1000 and Panasonic DMP-BD10EG-S) sold 140 units (one hundred and forty units)

Germany is awash in hidef.

Well using the same logic used by many here,....

I hereby declare the HD format war in Germany to be over as player sales there are well over 4:1 in HD DVD's favor, using hard data.

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post #292 of 9375 Old 02-01-2007, 04:08 AM
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Originally Posted by xbdestroya View Post

Not so fast though. Although the percentage who own a game may indeed by higher than the percentage that own a movie, I'd say that among those that own BD films, they've bought many more movies for the system thus far than they have games. Myself - 2 games, 13 movies.

I think the PS3 has sold more films than games by far up until now, among those that bought it for movies alone and gamers both.

This is the case in my home....I've bought way more Blu-ray movies than games. In fact, I only bought one game and spend time playing demos and the 360.
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post #293 of 9375 Old 02-01-2007, 04:25 AM
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Originally Posted by darinp2 View Post

I posted this elsewhere, but figured it was relevant here:

For the 30 days before these numbers ended (Jan 14th) HD DVD had 11 releases, while Blu-ray had 10 releases. It is true that for 2007 it was 2 releases for Blu-ray to 0 releases for HD DVD, but I get the feeling some people around here think that there was this huge influx of Blu-ray titles that accounted for these numbers and then it will slack off. The skew toward Blu-ray having significantly more releases than HD DVD per week didn't start until January 23rd, which is after the period these numbers refer to.

--Darin


That's why I'm confused by those who are stating that the explanation for the increased sales is due to the fact HD DVD didn't have any titles released lately. In fact, I clearly remember a HD DVD fan creating a thread that basically questioned Blu-ray studio support since HD DVD was keeping up with all the Blu-ray titles recently.
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post #294 of 9375 Old 02-01-2007, 04:33 AM
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this is amazing. njoy it while you can boys ...
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post #295 of 9375 Old 02-01-2007, 04:33 AM
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Yeah! Yeah! Yeah!
And Kevin Federline is a great Rapper!

HD DVD has my support until I can't support it any more.
Numbers are nothing but...numbers!


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post #296 of 9375 Old 02-01-2007, 05:02 AM
 
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Originally Posted by studiotan View Post

The numbers as I understand them show BD has sold less discs since inception than HD. "Yay we sold less discs so we won?" Catching up is not winning. How is this a clear victory in the overall scheme of things? If anything it's a tie right now.

The answer is obvious. HD-DVD came out a few months before BD. So no, it's not a "tie" or even close. Look at highdefdigest and see how many more BD movies are going to be released compared to HD-DVD.

I don't know how people manage to resist the obvious implication of these numbers.
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post #297 of 9375 Old 02-01-2007, 05:09 AM
 
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As I said immediately after looking at the HMR data that this was hardware related. Nothing to do with titles, but PS3 owners buying movies.

The challenge for Sony is to sustain this. Unlike the PSP, the PS3 is a very good movie player.

However, we don't have actual hardware and movie sales, to see if the overall volume is strong.

BTW. IF anyone still believes that Digitalbits is unbiased should realize that while they picked this item to post from Grubert, they ignored the Warner news about France.

Overall, I also find it some what suspicious that HMR would post both this and and article about why BD will win in the same issue. So, given that this info is free and HMR is probably paying Neilson, the question I have is who is paying HMR? This is a very relevant question. IMHO.
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post #298 of 9375 Old 02-01-2007, 06:30 AM - Thread Starter
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Overall, I also find it some what suspicious that HMR would post both this and and article about why BD will win in the same issue. So, given that this info is free and HMR is probably paying Neilson, the question I have is who is paying HMR? This is a very relevant question. IMHO.

Not true. They started giving sales figures on the Jan 21-27 issue, whereas the "Researcher Sees Blu-ray Victory" interview is from the Jan 28-Feb 3 issue.

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post #299 of 9375 Old 02-01-2007, 06:31 AM
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Originally Posted by Deja Vu View Post

There's a saying, "pride comes before a fall".

That's from Proverbs 16:18: "Pride goeth before destruction, and an haughty spirit before a fall."

Looks like a lot of people around here have recently gone neutral, bought a PS3, and bought some BD movies. This in the face of a lack of new releases for HD DVD. I would guess this is a big factor in these numbers.

Going neutral can only prolong the format war.

It will be interesting to see if the trend continues.
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post #300 of 9375 Old 02-01-2007, 06:42 AM
 
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Two things jumped out at me from that interview which I would consider red flags.

1. He says BD Players would be in the 400 range, when even Sony says it isn't like for 2-3 years. He then discounts the HD DVD side of cheap players by saying Chinese players won't arrive to make a difference. If you look at market prices today, HD DVD is already much closer to $300 than BD is to $400.

2. He discounts co-existence. When we know, co-existence is based on overall volume not relative. Just like PS3 is expected to coexist with xbox and Wii.

Overall, the interview and the Nielson data as presented smacked of partisanship to me. They should have reported overall growth, since the data was there!
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