Nielsen/VideoScan sales ratios and Top 5 - Page 13 - AVS Forum
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post #361 of 9375 Old 02-01-2007, 11:05 AM
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Wow, somebody's testy. I quoted the movie "Animal House" verbatim, as it was on topic, and it's been deleted?

I wonder how long before the entire BR/HD-DVD forum is put on hiatus...

"But I want to do community service; I want to teach the handicapped how to yodel." - Hudson Hawk
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post #362 of 9375 Old 02-01-2007, 11:06 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by paulbh View Post

I don't understand the mistake. The HD DVD group announced a couple of weeks ago that they planned to release 300 titles in 2007. If only 2/3 of that number show up, and I have no reason to believe that will be the case, an HD DVD player owner would still have an average of 4 titles/week to buy in 2007 (6 if all 300 arrive). That is probably way above average for most folks, that are not posting in these forums, to buy or rent in a week.

The point I was trying to make is that we have no reason to believe that this 2 weeks of data is indicative of an ongoing trend. It might be, but it may also just include a lot of catching up on the BD side. Once again, time will tell.

If I bought a player today, I would probably buy at least a couple of dozen titles during the month thereafter (given how many there are available). I realize I am a heavy purchaser, but I think the enthusiast crowd is driving a lot of the volume at the moment for both formats. If these formats don't go mass market, they will both survive.

1. No offense, but I won't touch your "planned" releases. That horse is badly beaten.

2. My point is BD has caught up and possibly surpassed HD DVD in total disc sales extremely quickly! Not even Fox predicted it would happen this fast.

But you're right. Time will tell.
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post #363 of 9375 Old 02-01-2007, 11:07 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Mark0 View Post

Josh, let me give you a little advice.
"It's better to let someone think you are an Idiot than to open your mouth and prove it."

Even better:

"When you know you are wrong, its easier to dismiss the question then to admit your ignorance."

If I'm wrong, prove it. Don't pretend to know something when you so obviously don't.
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post #364 of 9375 Old 02-01-2007, 11:08 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Sketcha View Post

Yes, that does seem to ring a bell, doesn't it.

If you've followed this thread long enough, you'll recall that it was a little over a year ago when BD supporters first claimed that HD DVD was dead. There were polls put up asking if people thought HD DVD would survive 2006, etc. BD clearly had homicide in their hearts, but they somehow couldn't couldn't complete the act.

So when BD declared themselves the winners before, they only got it thrown back in their face when HD DVD rose from the grave and even went on to lead the mindshare. HD DVD did this by having a better product at it's launch then BD had at it's launch. For whatever reason, the PQ was simply better on HD DVD than BD, and that gave HD DVD a new lease on life. That gave them the lead in mindshare, as well as the lead in sells.

Yet here we are again, nearly a year after BD's originally planned victory lap. Once again, people are planning their BD victory parties and declaring the format war over. One would think that past experiences would make people a little more conservative with their predictions, but apparently not.

I have to agree with Darin when he wrote:
Quote:
Originally Posted by darinp2 View Post

When it was 3:1 in favor of HD DVD in August or so the Blu-ray camp did something to change that. Now it looks like the HD DVD camp needs to somehow change the current trend, unless Blu-ray somehow does it on its own (which I doubt with even better titles coming out).

--Darin

BD has the lead now, and it's up to HD DVD to do something about that. But I think it's a little early to suggest that HD DVD should throw in the towel. There are still plays to be made yet.
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post #365 of 9375 Old 02-01-2007, 11:09 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by joshd2012 View Post

If I'm wrong, prove it. Don't pretend to know something when you so obviously don't.

OK, joshd, we get it. Yours is much bigger than his.
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post #366 of 9375 Old 02-01-2007, 11:12 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Mark0 View Post

Josh, let me give you a little advice.
"It's better to let someone think you are an Idiot than to open your mouth and prove it."

Careful now. Forum rules.

And I believe it is closer to...

"Better to remain silent and be thought a fool than to speak out and remove all doubt"

Abraham Lincoln.

Also, "fool," to me is a bit less insulting than your word.
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post #367 of 9375 Old 02-01-2007, 11:12 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Grubert View Post

The HD DVD needs to do something.

And we may be seeing now some of the HD DVD PRG response. There are reports of increased HD DVD presence in big retailers such as Best Buy. That may mean they are putting the $150M to use.

The "something" that HD-DVD needs to do may not be enough. Announcements of titles must ramp up pretty quickly. Universal need to take up the slack that Disney and Fox created on the BD side. Not having solid announcements for February onwards creates a huge uneasiness for HD-DVD supporters.

The presence that US$150M is going to buy in retail space is not going to buy Sony, Disney or Fox for their contents in the retail rack. Players may be cheap but content rules. Unlike when the first BD player launched, a HD-DVD promotion now is also dampened by the shadow created by the PS3.


fuad

"DonÂt let them tell you who you are is not enough, that itÂs wrong and that you wonÂt find love. DonÂt let them use my life to put your future down, or tell you that happiness canÂt be found."
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post #368 of 9375 Old 02-01-2007, 12:20 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by briankmonkey View Post

That would be my guess well.

Thirded.
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post #369 of 9375 Old 02-01-2007, 12:22 PM
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Hey! It's back open!

Did Mark have a change of heart?
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post #370 of 9375 Old 02-01-2007, 12:29 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by skogan View Post

If you've followed this thread long enough, you'll recall that it was a little over a year ago when BD supporters first claimed that HD DVD was dead. There were polls put up asking if people thought HD DVD would survive 2006, etc. BD clearly had homicide in their hearts, but they somehow couldn't couldn't complete the act.

So when BD declared themselves the winners before, they only got it thrown back in their face when HD DVD rose from the grave and even went on to lead the mindshare. HD DVD did this by having a better product at it's launch then BD had at it's launch. For whatever reason, the PQ was simply better on HD DVD than BD, and that gave HD DVD a new lease on life. That gave them the lead in mindshare, as well as the lead in sells.

Yet here we are again, nearly a year after BD's originally planned victory lap. Once again, people are planning their BD victory parties and declaring the format war over. One would think that past experiences would make people a little more conservative with their predictions, but apparently not.

I responded to skogan in PM when the thread closed. I just want to put our responses on record...

Me,

"I have followed THIS thread, but I must admit I did not follow as closely way back then. I was not aware of that. If that is the case, then your points here are very valid.

I'm guessing you are aware that the problem with picture quality was a big mistake on BDs part and has been resolved. Many HD-BD converts have reported that some BDs look and sound better than their HD DVD equivalents."

Take care,

Sketch


skogan,

"Hi,

I only quoted your post as a reference, I didn't mean to make my post point at you. I see I used the word "you" when I should have said "one" to show that I was making a general statement. So I apologize if it looked like I was directing that at you.

Yeah, the problems in BD PQ were likely due to poor masters and perhaps Sony didn't know that the bar was being set so high in the beginning. But it looks like that is all taken care of now, and pq is roughly even between the two formats."


Me,

"Thanks to the war/competition."

and

"...thanks for clearing that up

Have a good day"

Sketch
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post #371 of 9375 Old 02-01-2007, 12:31 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by briankmonkey View Post

Maybe you prefer Mark0's style of just giving advice on being an idiot rather than provide any facts Josh is right on target.

No, it's just that they're both basically on target and are arguing semantics.

From Wikipedia:

Quote:


Financial economics has traditionally been considered a part of economics, as its body of results emerges naturally from microeconomics. However, today Finance effectively established itself as a separate, though closely related, discipline.

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post #372 of 9375 Old 02-01-2007, 12:35 PM
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Just to add.
We have a PS3.
We have bought and rented BD discs.
We still just use the PS3 game remote.
I'm sure many others buying and watching BD discs still haven't bought the dedicated remote yet...
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post #373 of 9375 Old 02-01-2007, 12:35 PM
 
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"arguing semantics"

what would this place be without that I kid
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post #374 of 9375 Old 02-01-2007, 12:37 PM
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Dave Mack View Post

Just to add.
We have a PS3.
We have bought and rented BD discs.
We still just use the PS3 game remote.
I'm sure many others buying and watching BD discs still haven't bought the dedicated remote yet...

I haven't.. I don't need it but the woman would like it as the PS3 controller is very sensitive, especially when moving it etc it is easy to bump the shoulder buttons.

Unfortunately the stores (Best Buy, Circuit City and Fry's) all seem to be sold out around me (silicon valley) just as the PS3's are still sold out.
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post #375 of 9375 Old 02-01-2007, 12:47 PM
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Does anyone else think this might be the end of Home Media Magazine reporting those numbers? I can see many people upset that this information is being relayed for free.
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post #376 of 9375 Old 02-01-2007, 12:53 PM - Thread Starter
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Thanks for reopening the thread, Mark.

People, please don't get personal. I'd like this thread to stay open so that it includes valuable information as it is disclosed.

Thanks!

Freedom is the freedom to say that two plus two make four. If that is granted, all else follows.
-George Orwell, Nineteen Eighty-Four
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post #377 of 9375 Old 02-01-2007, 12:59 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Grubert View Post

Thanks for reopening the thread, Mark.

People, please don't get personal. I'd like this thread to stay open so that it includes valuable information as it is disclosed.

Thanks!

Agreed.
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post #378 of 9375 Old 02-01-2007, 01:07 PM
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Hmm, I expected more sales for HD DVD discs since the inception.
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post #379 of 9375 Old 02-01-2007, 01:17 PM
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Quote:


Didn't stop HD-DVD fanatics from claiming it was dead

The reason that HD DVD fanatics claimed it was dead was because Blu-ray did a (well-documented) abhorrent launch that was so difficult to imagine could happen, that the only logical conclusion was that it was a trainwreck. And it wasn't just "HD DVD fanatics". A (well-documented) boatload of Blu-ray supporters returned their Samsungs feeling that Blu-ray was going nowhere. So it wasn't just a flippant "Blu-ray is dead" vibe going on, it was a reasonable, if somewhat emotional, reaction to the events at the time. No such reasonable statement can be made at this time. HD DVD has many times over proved it's worth as a next-generation optical format, and claiming it's death is flame-provoking, unreasonable commentary, to say the very least.
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post #380 of 9375 Old 02-01-2007, 01:41 PM
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Well, I for one dread the day that either format announces its death. All the immature "I told you so" people will be out in droves on this and many other forums. I've already gotten a taste of whats to come by this thread alone.

The death of a format will be so obnoxious. That the lot of people making premature speculations in this thread will seem cool and calculated.

It is better to ask for forgiveness, than it is to ask for permissision - the WAF factor
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post #381 of 9375 Old 02-01-2007, 01:56 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by SteroMAdMAn View Post

Well, I for one dread the day that either format announces its death. All the immature "I told you so" people will be out in droves on this and many other forums. I've already gotten a taste of whats to come by this thread alone.

The death of a format will be so obnoxious. That the lot of people making premature speculations in this thread will seem cool and calculated.

Well, we can only hope for the best.

However, it is my opinion that when the writing is truly on the walls, those on the losing team who accept it will be spared. Those who want to fight to the last breath, may be in for it.

I have pointed out before in this thread where die-hard HD DVD fans that posted a sense of loss over this topic were not responded to by thier "opponents;" only their teammates in attempts to rally them back.

I have seen several times where ultra die-hard HD DVD fanatics with histories of blasting BD at every turn, were quietly taken in upon their announcement of going neutral.

Regardless of who wins, I hope that I am right about my belief in the abilites of even our toughest fighters to be civil if/when the time comes.
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post #382 of 9375 Old 02-01-2007, 02:00 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by wnorris View Post

So what this tells us is that if Sony sells 10 million PS3's by the end of 2008, at most, maybe 2 million will be used as regular BD players. So HD-DVD needs to sell at most 1.825 million addons and standalones to keep pace with BD in NA. This is less than .5% of the NA population, so I think it is easily achievable, especially with prices seeming to fall weekly on HD-DVD players.

Two million as "regular" BD players, but how many as occasional players?

You also have up to 8 million potential customers waiting in the wings with only the right title and the cost of a movie needed to sell the format to that user, something HD-DVD can't hope to compete with.

Format Apathetic
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post #383 of 9375 Old 02-01-2007, 02:02 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by SteroMAdMAn View Post

Well, I for one dread the day that either format announces its death. All the immature "I told you so" people will be out in droves on this and many other forums. I've already gotten a taste of whats to come by this thread alone.

The death of a format will be so obnoxious. That the lot of people making premature speculations in this thread will seem cool and calculated.

There probably won't be a big announced death or obituary. One format (or both) will just gradually fade away.

But it could happen that both formats gain enough support that each will live independently of how well the other does. For example, like UMD, BD could exist as a movie format for PS3 users - even if HD DVD has a lot more sells. Conversly, HD DVD could also exist as a movie format for the xbox 360, and get enough sells that way that it could find support independent of what happens on the PS3.
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post #384 of 9375 Old 02-01-2007, 02:07 PM
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mod

if you want the thread to remain open

excercise a bit of self restraint

Please take the high road in every post
Please do not quote or respond to problematic posts: report them to mods to handle
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post #385 of 9375 Old 02-01-2007, 02:09 PM
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Sketcha View Post

Well, we can only hope for the best.

However, it is my opinion that when the writing is truly on the walls, those on the losing team who accept it will be spared. Those who want to fight to the last breath, may be in for it.

I have pointed out before in this thread where die-hard HD DVD fans that posted a sense of loss over this topic were not responded to by thier "opponents;" only their teammates in attempts to rally them back.

I have seen several times where ultra die-hard HD DVD fanatics with histories of blasting BD at every turn, were quietly taken in upon their announcement of going neutral.

Regardless of who wins, I hope that I am right about my belief in the abilites of even our toughest fighters to be civil if/when the time comes.

yup, pretty much what I've observed as well.
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post #386 of 9375 Old 02-01-2007, 02:11 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Sketcha View Post

Well, we can only hope for the best.

However, it is my opinion that when the writing is truly on the walls, those on the losing team who accept it will be spared. Those who want to fight to the last breath, may be in for it.

I have pointed out before in this thread where die-hard HD DVD fans that posted a sense of loss over this topic were not responded to by thier "opponents;" only their teammates in attempts to rally them back.

I have seen several times where ultra die-hard HD DVD fanatics with histories of blasting BD at every turn, were quietly taken in upon their announcement of going neutral.

Regardless of who wins, I hope that I am right about my belief in the abilites of even our toughest fighters to be civil if/when the time comes.

The point is, all you're doing is countering speculation with more speculation. Ones in this thread are no better and know no more than the very people they are arguing with.

The point is, there is nothing to argue in this thread except opinions and neither side is likely changing the others mind.

Anything could happen. Thats goes both ways. So no point in putting a trophy up on the pedestal yet.

It is better to ask for forgiveness, than it is to ask for permissision - the WAF factor
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post #387 of 9375 Old 02-01-2007, 02:16 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by SteroMAdMAn View Post

The point is, all you're doing is countering speculation with more speculation. Ones in this thread are no better and know no more than the very people they are arguing with.

The point is, there is nothing to argue in this thread except opinions and neither side is likely changing the others mind.

Anything could happen. Thats goes both ways. So no point in putting a trophy up on the pedestal yet.

You're right, of course.
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post #388 of 9375 Old 02-01-2007, 02:17 PM
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I know, its a burden i've come to accept

It is better to ask for forgiveness, than it is to ask for permissision - the WAF factor
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post #389 of 9375 Old 02-01-2007, 02:18 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by SteroMAdMAn View Post

Well, I for one dread the day that either format announces its death. All the immature "I told you so" people will be out in droves on this and many other forums. I've already gotten a taste of whats to come by this thread alone.

The death of a format will be so obnoxious. That the lot of people making premature speculations in this thread will seem cool and calculated.

Funny, I look forward to that day - only because I think the opposite will happen. All the recent hardcore "fanboys" that jumped into this forum will disappear when they don't have anyone/anything to argue about and insider postings will probably decline when they don't have a product to push or spread FUD against the competition. Hopefully, some insiders will stick around just to discuss issues and provide help. But the discussions should return to something more civilized like the other areas on AVS (except the gaming forums of course!)
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post #390 of 9375 Old 02-01-2007, 02:20 PM
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Quote:


Well, we can only hope for the best.

However, it is my opinion that when the writing is truly on the walls, those on the losing team who accept it will be spared. Those who want to fight to the last breath, may be in for it.

I have pointed out before in this thread where die-hard HD DVD fans that posted a sense of loss over this topic were not responded to by their "opponents;" only their teammates in attempts to rally them back.

I have seen several times where ultra die-hard HD DVD fanatics with histories of blasting BD at every turn, were quietly taken in upon their announcement of going neutral.

Regardless of who wins, I hope that I am right about my belief in the abilities of even our toughest fighters to be civil if/when the time comes.

Is this a joke post? You act like this is some sort of mafia thing. I doubt very much anyone cares if the Blu Ray nutts welcome them with open arms. Seriously, you are all just jumping to conclusions and screaming victory from the rooftops just as you have always done when there was even the slightest hint that things were going your way.

Ask yourself this question before you declare it all over...

The HD DVD group got into this battle expecting to fight a PS3 that would have already sold about 4 million units. Do you really think they have any plans to ditch now that they are facing numbers an order of magnitude LESS than they had anticipated battling in the first place?
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