Nielsen/VideoScan sales ratios and Top 5 - Page 14 - AVS Forum
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post #391 of 9375 Old 02-01-2007, 02:23 PM
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Originally Posted by Sean_O View Post

The HD DVD group got into this battle expecting to fight a PS3 that would have already sold about 4 million units. Do you really think they have any plans to ditch now that they are facing numbers an order of magnitude LESS than they had anticipated battling in the first place?

Nope.

And I don't believe you will find anywhere in any of my posts that I have declared victory in the name of BD.

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post #392 of 9375 Old 02-01-2007, 02:25 PM
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Originally Posted by briankmonkey View Post

Didn't stop HD-DVD fanatics from claiming it was dead.


Do you ever post anything that is not an attack on someone else, Brian? And do you admit to being a fanatic yourself? Because 99.9% of your posts are extremely shrill.


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post #393 of 9375 Old 02-01-2007, 02:26 PM
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Originally Posted by nyg View Post

Refresh my memory, how long did DIVX last in its war against DVD? Seriously folks, I think this format war will be over sooner rather than later.

Just shy of 1 year for active user registrations after sale, if I remember correctly, but the sales were never anything comparable to DVD.

BTW, these sales numbers still don't mean much because we're getting sales ratios and not total volume. My guess is that it's being done to disguise who few discs are actually selling so as not to discourage consumers from buying either one.

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post #394 of 9375 Old 02-01-2007, 02:29 PM - Thread Starter
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Originally Posted by Sean_O View Post

Ask yourself this question before you declare it all over...

The HD DVD group got into this battle expecting to fight a PS3 that would have already sold about 4 million units. Do you really think they have any plans to ditch now that they are facing numbers an order of magnitude LESS than they had anticipated battling in the first place?

However, nobody knew if gamers would buy movies. It could have gone either way.

And still might, if a lot of good games are released and games devote their budget to game-buying.

This will be interesting.

-edit: I've added the sales info to the omnibus release calendar/distilled news thread. It's on post 4.

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post #395 of 9375 Old 02-01-2007, 02:30 PM
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Originally Posted by Sean_O View Post

The HD DVD group got into this battle expecting to fight a PS3 that would have already sold about 4 million units. Do you really think they have any plans to ditch now that they are facing numbers an order of magnitude LESS than they had anticipated battling in the first place?

There are only 400,000 PS3 sold? Wow... Where did Sony predict 4 million sold by Jan?

The only reference I can find on 4 million PS3 is an August one by Sony before production started and the Europe launch was pushed back.

http://arstechnica.com/news.ars/post/20060822-7558.html

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post #396 of 9375 Old 02-01-2007, 02:31 PM
 
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Originally Posted by Grubert View Post

However, nobody knew if gamers would buy movies. It could have gone either way.

And still might, if a lot of good games are released and games devote their budget to game-buying.

This will be interesting.

I knew Plus I will continue to buy games and movies like I've always done in the past. Honestly I've never met a gamer that doesn't like movies.
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post #397 of 9375 Old 02-01-2007, 02:34 PM - Thread Starter
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Originally Posted by briankmonkey View Post

I knew Plus I will continue to buy games and movies like I've always done in the past. Honestly I've never met a gamer that doesn't like movies.

True. But where I come from, gamers overwhelmingly download movies from p2p. Good luck getting those to buy some hidef disc thing.

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post #398 of 9375 Old 02-01-2007, 02:34 PM
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Originally Posted by briankmonkey View Post

I knew Honestly I've never met a gamer that doesn't like movies.

Good point.

I think Sony may have been aware of this too.
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post #399 of 9375 Old 02-01-2007, 02:39 PM
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Originally Posted by Grubert View Post

True. But where I come from, gamers overwhelmingly download movies from p2p. Good luck getting those to buy some hidef disc thing.

Especially when some are on the p2p networks already.
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post #400 of 9375 Old 02-01-2007, 02:47 PM
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Originally Posted by Maxpower1987 View Post

Especially when some are on the p2p networks already.

Wow, really? What's that download time like?
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post #401 of 9375 Old 02-01-2007, 02:47 PM
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Originally Posted by skogan View Post

There probably won't be a big announced death or obituary. One format (or both) will just gradually fade away.

Unless it is mostly going to be a tie we should have at least one big event (or combination of events) that should make most here agree that the side on the bad news end of that is not going to win. As I see it right now the HD DVD side is trying to get Disney and/or Fox to go neutral without Universal going neutral and the Blu-ray side is trying to get Universal to go neutral without Disney or Fox changing. I think the war is far from over, but if either side ends up with a 3:1 advantage for sales for December of this year and no studio has gone neutral, I believe it will be very difficult for the side behind to retain all their exclusive studios.

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post #402 of 9375 Old 02-01-2007, 02:49 PM
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Originally Posted by Grubert View Post

However, nobody knew if gamers would buy movies. It could have gone either way.

And still might, if a lot of good games are released and games devote their budget to game-buying.

This will be interesting.

-edit: I've added the sales info to the omnibus release calendar/distilled news thread. It's on post 4.


Clearly, some gamers are buying movies, and one can see that there are enough disc being sold to put BD firmly in the lead, (no matter how one defines it). Yet at the same time, BD isn't outselling HD DVD by 10:1 or 20:1. It's a more mild 2:1, which is about the lead HD DVD had held before.

Previously some people predicted that gamers wouldn't buy movies, while others predicted that the PS3 would come in and blow HD DVD away.To me it doesn't look like either of those things happened. It looks like it fell somewhere inbetween. The deluge of PS3 demand has came, and a bunch of sales in a short period of time have occured, and that was enough to give BD the lead, but it didn't deliver a knock out punch.

I had thought we would know for sure who would be the format winner after the release of the PS3. Either BD would outsell HD DVD by a lot, or gamers wouldn't buy games. It turns out, we still don't have a winner. BD has taken back the lead, but it's not an insurmoutable lead. It's about the same lead that HD DVD had only a few months ago. And adoption levels are still low enough that we can expect some volatility. HD DVD needs to do something different and big if they want to get the lead back.
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post #403 of 9375 Old 02-01-2007, 02:49 PM
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Originally Posted by Sketcha View Post

Wow, really? What's that download time like?

Very large, 20-30GB, I have not seen any BD titles yet, only HD DVD ones though.
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post #404 of 9375 Old 02-01-2007, 02:59 PM
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Originally Posted by Sean_O View Post

The HD DVD group got into this battle expecting to fight a PS3 that would have already sold about 4 million units. Do you really think they have any plans to ditch now that they are facing numbers an order of magnitude LESS than they had anticipated battling in the first place?

Are you claiming that there are only 400,000 Playstation 3 consoles out there? That would one order of magnitude smaller than 4 million.

/carmi
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post #405 of 9375 Old 02-01-2007, 03:01 PM - Thread Starter
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Originally Posted by skogan View Post

Clearly, some gamers are buying movies, and one can see that there are enough disc being sold to put BD firmly in the lead, (no matter how one defines it). Yet at the same time, BD isn't outselling HD DVD by 10:1 or 20:1. It's a more mild 2:1, which is about the lead HD DVD had held before.

Jan 1-7 was 2.1:1, and Jan 1-14 was 2.6:1.

So Jan 8-14 must have been considerably over 2.6:1 to make that average, maybe 3:1

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post #406 of 9375 Old 02-01-2007, 03:01 PM
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Originally Posted by Maxpower1987 View Post

Very large, 20-30GB, I have not seen any BD titles yet, only HD DVD ones though.

I guess you could use your Terabyte external for those.

Let's see, around 500 bucks for the HDD.

about 35 films say.

About 15 bucks a pop. Not a huge advantage unless you just want to watch them and dump them, which, of course, would be almost like renting them for free.
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post #407 of 9375 Old 02-01-2007, 03:03 PM
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Originally Posted by darinp2 View Post

Unless it is mostly going to be a tie we should have at least one big event (or combination of events) that should make most here agree that the side on the bad news end of that is not going to win. As I see it right now the HD DVD side is trying to get Disney and/or Fox to go neutral without Universal going neutral and the Blu-ray side is trying to get Universal to go neutral without Disney or Fox changing. I think the war is far from over, but if either side ends up with a 3:1 advantage for sales for December of this year and no studio has gone neutral, I believe it will be very difficult for the side behind to retain all their exclusive studios.

--Darin

But the question wasn't "when will we know a winner", it was "what will happen when a format announces it's death". Losing the format war isn't necessarily the same things as having the format die.

It will be easier to declare a winner then it will to find out when one is dead, because it may make economic sense to keep producing in the 2nd place format. The install base of 360 add ons or PS3's may be large enough that people will still try to hit that market, even if it isn't supported as widely as the other format. So the losing format could, and probably will, live a long time after it's clearly the loser.

So I agree with you that we should find a time or event when we can declare a "winner", but I don't think that will be the same thing as being able to pinpoint the time of death for the loser.
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Good point.

I think Sony may have been aware of this too.

no doubt about it
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post #409 of 9375 Old 02-01-2007, 03:07 PM
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Originally Posted by skogan View Post

But the question wasn't "when will we know a winner", it was "what will happen when a format announces it's death". Losing the format war isn't necessarily the same things as having the format die.

It will be easier to declare a winner then it will to find out when one is dead, because it may make economic sense to keep producing in the 2nd place format. The install base of 360 add ons or PS3's may be large enough that people will still try to hit that market, even if it isn't supported as widely as the other format. So the losing format could, and probably will, live a long time after it's clearly the loser.

So I agree with you that we should find a time or event when we can declare a "winner", but I don't think that will be the same thing as being able to pinpoint the time of death for the loser.

Yeah, but I just wonder how long the rental houses and retailers will want to keep the losing format on their shelves.

Of course with VHS, that was much different. They were already the dominant format and just slowly phased out.

Online ordering might be the ticket. Warehouses are alot different than shelf space.
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post #410 of 9375 Old 02-01-2007, 03:09 PM
 
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Who would publish sales of standalone players?

Why aren't we seeing actual volume numbers?

Why would a publication that reports sales, not do so?

Are we looking at a thinly disguised PR?

Many questions.....
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post #411 of 9375 Old 02-01-2007, 03:10 PM
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Originally Posted by Grubert View Post

Jan 1-7 was 2.1:1, and Jan 1-14 was 2.6:1.

So Jan 8-14 must have been considerably over 2.6:1 to make that average, maybe 3:1

Fair enough, either way, 2:1 or 3:1 is about the same lead as HD DVD had previously. I only point that out to show that, while it is a substantial lead, it's not an insurmountable lead.

I think if HD DVD doesn't have some trick up it's sleeve, it could soon become insurrmountable. But as of right now, the PS3 didn't knock HD DVD out, to use boxing terms. BD is ahead, but nothing more than that, and HD DVD could still do something about that.
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post #412 of 9375 Old 02-01-2007, 03:13 PM
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Originally Posted by Grubert View Post

However, nobody knew if gamers would buy movies. It could have gone either way.

And still might, if a lot of good games are released and games devote their budget to game-buying.

This will be interesting.

Let's not be guilty of the same narrow mentality that is going to get some executives fired.

When I was in college, I would have considered myself a gamer. I spend hundreds of dollars a year on games. Me and my roommates would drag our 27" TV outside and play Dr. Mario until we were either too drunk to see the screen or the sun came up.

During this same time period, my movie collection went from 5 to over 150. Clearly, I was spending more money on movies than games. Even my roommate, who is now a game programmer, amassed an even larger collection of movies.

Its all entertainment. Being a gamer has no connection to the amount of movies you might buy.
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post #413 of 9375 Old 02-01-2007, 03:13 PM
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Originally Posted by plazman View Post

Who would publish sales of standalone players?

Why aren't we seeing actual volume numbers?

Why would a publication that reports sales, not do so?

Are we looking at a thinly disguised PR?

Many questions.....

You didn't have many questions when they were publishing HD DVD's superior ratios a couple months ago, nor were you questioning the validity of Nielsen/Videoscan, who have been doing this for years with no bias. After the first couple hours (and I guess shock wearing off), you've been trying to spread the meme that now, all of the sudden, these numbers and Nielsen/Videoscan are suspect. Why so paranoid now, and not before?

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post #414 of 9375 Old 02-01-2007, 03:15 PM
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Originally Posted by Grubert View Post

However, nobody knew if gamers would buy movies. It could have gone either way.

But many AV early adopters bought PS3 this time and treated it as a traditional CE device. Therefore bluray has a $500 CE player with 90% content support while HD DVD has a $500 player ($400 street) with only 40% content support if you take the entire game demographic(including the addon) out of the picture. Common sense would indicate bluray will take a decent lead.

I think the key here is how big is that early adopters market? 20k-25k copies per movie doesn't smell much profit. If it is indeed a niche, HD DVD would still have the chance to bounce back by first breaking the $250 price point. They need to get two additional studios by this summer and flood the market with <$300 player starting from this fall.

PS3 at $500 will carry bluray a decent distance, but it is very interesting to see whether it will be enough to battle the $250 player.

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post #415 of 9375 Old 02-01-2007, 03:16 PM
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Originally Posted by Sketcha View Post

Yeah, but I just wonder how long the rental houses and retailers will want to keep the losing format on their shelves.

Of course with VHS, that was much different. They were already the dominant format and just slowly phased out.

Online ordering might be the ticket. Warehouses are alot different than shelf space.

I think the UMD analogy may come into effect - but it may be for the 360 rather than the PS3. HD DVD may eventually become a cheap optical distribution system mainly for people that have a 360. If MS gets a few hundered K out there, there will be a market for it. If they ever integrate it into the 360, then there will be a little larger market for it. Then, even though the support wouldn't be equal to BD, it would still exist.
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post #416 of 9375 Old 02-01-2007, 03:18 PM
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Originally Posted by skogan View Post

But the question wasn't "when will we know a winner", it was "what will happen when a format announces it's death". Losing the format war isn't necessarily the same things as having the format die.

I should have been more clear that I agreed with what you said, but was just expanding on it. Even after most of us agree that the death of a certain side is inevitable, they will likely continue for a while. That is assuming of course that it isn't just a tie and we do get to the point where the majority (or maybe vast majority would be more accurate) around here can agree that after some event one side is pretty much done for.

BTW: Looking at the titles released on 1/16/07, it wouldn't shock me if Videoscan actually shows HD DVD in the lead for the week ending 1/21/07.

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post #417 of 9375 Old 02-01-2007, 03:20 PM
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Originally Posted by plazman View Post

Who would publish sales of standalone players?

Why aren't we seeing actual volume numbers?

Why would a publication that reports sales, not do so?

Are we looking at a thinly disguised PR?

Many questions.....

I think it's because they sell their more hard data.

From wikipedia "Nielsen Videoscan"

"Clients may purchase data either through on-going subscriptions, or on an ad hoc basis. Additionally, Nielsen VideoScan frequently provides sales rankings of video titles (although not specific sales numbers) to entertainment and mainstream news media."
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post #418 of 9375 Old 02-01-2007, 03:25 PM
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Originally Posted by Grubert View Post


-edit: I've added the sales info to the omnibus release calendar/distilled news thread. It's on post 4.

Grubert, you might want to take a look at this Lionsgate's press release.

The release says that Lionsgate has sold 2.5 million units (DVD and Blu-ray combined) of Saw 3 in its first week of release. But the interesting part is this quote: "Also, according to Rentrak Home Essentials, SAW III Blu-Ray disc is the largest and most successful Blu-Ray debut to date."

It should be interesting to see how this translates into the overall Blu-ray ratio when you get the next charts. (Saw 3 was released on January 23, so this will only appear on the stats for the week ending on Jan 28 though).
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post #419 of 9375 Old 02-01-2007, 03:29 PM
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Originally Posted by Azumi View Post

The release says that Lionsgate has sold 2.5 million units (DVD and Blu-ray combined) of Saw 3 in its first week of release. But the interesting part is this quote: "Also, according to Rentrak Home Essentials, SAW III Blu-Ray disc is the largest and most successful Blu-Ray debut to date."

Interesting. In the Amazon rankings I believe that Crank generally did better than Saw III.

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post #420 of 9375 Old 02-01-2007, 03:29 PM
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Originally Posted by skogan View Post

But the question wasn't "when will we know a winner", it was "what will happen when a format announces it's death". Losing the format war isn't necessarily the same things as having the format die.

It will be easier to declare a winner then it will to find out when one is dead, because it may make economic sense to keep producing in the 2nd place format. The install base of 360 add ons or PS3's may be large enough that people will still try to hit that market, even if it isn't supported as widely as the other format. So the losing format could, and probably will, live a long time after it's clearly the loser.

So I agree with you that we should find a time or event when we can declare a "winner", but I don't think that will be the same thing as being able to pinpoint the time of death for the loser.

360 add-on is what, 100K at best? Hits among 100K users would be 10K at best. That's not a viable market if you ask me. Worse than SACD.
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