Nielsen/VideoScan sales ratios and Top 5 - Page 15 - AVS Forum
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post #421 of 9375 Old 02-01-2007, 04:29 PM
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Originally Posted by Azumi View Post

Grubert, you might want to take a look at this Lionsgate's press release.

The release says that Lionsgate has sold 2.5 million units (DVD and Blu-ray combined) of Saw 3 in its first week of release. But the interesting part is this quote: "Also, according to Rentrak Home Essentials, SAW III Blu-Ray disc is the largest and most successful Blu-Ray debut to date."

It should be interesting to see how this translates into the overall Blu-ray ratio when you get the next charts. (Saw 3 was released on January 23, so this will only appear on the stats for the week ending on Jan 28 though).

Wow, SAW III! Whooda' thunkit'.

I wonder what Casino Royale is going to do.
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post #422 of 9375 Old 02-01-2007, 04:34 PM
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Originally Posted by darinp2 View Post

I should have been more clear that I agreed with what you said, but was just expanding on it. Even after most of us agree that the death of a certain side is inevitable, they will likely continue for a while. That is assuming of course that it isn't just a tie and we do get to the point where the majority (or maybe vast majority would be more accurate) around here can agree that after some event one side is pretty much done for.

BTW: Looking at the titles released on 1/16/07, it wouldn't shock me if Videoscan actually shows HD DVD in the lead for the week ending 1/21/07.

--Darin



I would add that UMD, IPOD, Internet downloads, Xbox live anywhere, etc., will all have some level of support. DVD will have some level of support, probably greater than either HD format for the next several years.

It may turn out that there isn't one dominate form of distribution, a la' DVD. Instead, there are many, each of them with various different levels of support. And BD may end up with more support than HD DVD, but that won't make HD DVD dead anymore than IPOD will be dead if it can't match HD DVD.

HD DVD is part of the MS paradigm, and that may give it a future regardless of how well BD does. It may not be the dominate optical disc format, but it may the answer for many people who follow the model of using the 360 as an extender from a vista hub. There may be enough of those people to make it viable and it may make sense to produce content for it whether or not it is the dominate format.
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post #423 of 9375 Old 02-01-2007, 04:37 PM
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Originally Posted by K.L. View Post

360 add-on is what, 100K at best? Hits among 100K users would be 10K at best. That's not a viable market if you ask me. Worse than SACD.

If they never sell anymore, you may be right. But if they never sell any more PS3's, BD probably isn't vialbe either. So we have to expect some reasonable growth in both products.

BTW, I wonder how many DVHS units were on the market. Not that it's directly relevent.
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post #424 of 9375 Old 02-01-2007, 04:39 PM
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Originally Posted by skogan View Post

BTW, I wonder how many DVHS units were on the market. Not that it's directly relevent.

Not enough and the price was too high.
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post #425 of 9375 Old 02-01-2007, 04:48 PM
 
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I see. Because BD is ahead, it doesn't make sense to ask for volume data? That is strange logic indeed.

I am not challenging what HMR is reporting from Videoscan, I am sure they have a valid reason not to show the units shipped for either format or even the top titles sold. However, it does apear that this publication is using data from Videoscan and interview with a selected reviewer to drive a very specific point of view....at least that is how it appears to me.

FWIW, I've said many times that without actual sales, even Amazon's ranking don't tell the whole story.....

If HMR continues to report on sales ratios from Videoscan on a weekly basis, I'll be satisfied. It will show they are simply reporting and not pushing an agenda. That's all. Not illogical at all.

I give credit to dvdempire and Amazon for at least reporting consistently. HMR should do that as well.

Remember, HMR had to pay for Videoscan data, it's not free. Videoscan by no means a comprehensive account of sales. Just to be clear.

Is it possible for BD movie sales to be 3:1 ahead? sure! Is this great data for BD? absolutely! Does it show the success of PS3 on the format? yes, yes, yes!

If Sony can sustain their PS3 and BD subsidy, they will win? I believe yes.

Is it possible to sustain this? I don't know. Is it ever discussed? Nope. Is it significant? possibly. Why? The economics cannot be ignored.

IMHO to win outright Sony will need to ship 50 million units before HD DVD reaches 5 million. Cost to Sony? Appox. $5-$15B! The range is based on achieving economies of scale. So far Sony has used $1B or so......so we are still early in the game. JMHO.
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post #426 of 9375 Old 02-01-2007, 04:50 PM
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Originally Posted by skogan View Post

HD DVD is part of the MS paradigm

Really? If I recall correctly some Microsoft guy said all optical disc would die soon in favor of online distribution. That's why the Xbox 360 HD DVD add-on is an add-on, it's separate to reserve the way to kill it anytime. I bet Microsoft would happily release Blu-ray add-on if necessary.
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post #427 of 9375 Old 02-01-2007, 04:56 PM
 
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Originally Posted by Sketcha View Post

Wow, SAW III! Whooda' thunkit'.

I wonder what Casino Royale is going to do.

Haven't watched either but I'm going to blind buy Casino Royale.. I liked Saw but it was kind of a 1 timer so I'll probably just rent SAW III.
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post #428 of 9375 Old 02-01-2007, 04:57 PM
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Originally Posted by plazman View Post

IMHO to win outright Sony will need to ship 50 million units before HD DVD reaches 5 million.

If either side gets to the point that 2 million people have a non-combo player that they buy movies for at a reasonable rate in the next couple of years, then I think it is going to be tough for exclusive studios (other than Sony) for the other side to stay exclusive. I bet both Universal and Disney would have trouble ignoring 2 million people from the other side.

--Darin

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post #429 of 9375 Old 02-01-2007, 05:00 PM
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Originally Posted by K.L. View Post

Really? If I recall correctly some Microsoft guy said all optical disc would die soon in favor of online distribution. That's why the Xbox 360 HD DVD add-on is an add-on, it's separate to reserve the way to kill it anytime. I bet Microsoft would happily release Blu-ray add-on if necessary.

Why do you think they would release a BD add on, if you also believe they want to kill optical disc format? I'm not sure I follow your reasoning, sorry.

MS likes HD DVD as an intermediary, (until people move to online distribution) because it has iHD, and lacks BD+. That has been there stated position. They choose to go HD DVD when BD group blocked iHD from there format, if I remember correctly. There was also an issue with managed copy, which appears to have been cleared up.
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post #430 of 9375 Old 02-01-2007, 05:01 PM
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Originally Posted by lymzy View Post

But many AV early adopters bought PS3 this time and treated it as a traditional CE device. Therefore bluray has a $500 CE player with 90% content support while HD DVD has a $500 player ($400 street) with only 40% content support if you take the entire game demographic(including the addon) out of the picture. Common sense would indicate bluray will take a decent lead.

I think the key here is how big is that early adopters market? 20k-25k copies per movie doesn't smell much profit. If it is indeed a niche, HD DVD would still have the chance to bounce back by first breaking the $250 price point. They need to get two additional studios by this summer and flood the market with <$300 player starting from this fall.

PS3 at $500 will carry bluray a decent distance, but it is very interesting to see whether it will be enough to battle the $250 player.

Yes, I agree with this assessment. I doubt the studios on either side are panicking right now because we're still in the very early stages. DVD wasn't this far along less than a year after release. Numbers on both sides are likely small enough that patience is still the watchword.

I tend to believe that cheap hardware will win the day sooner than more content because this is the reason I ended up buying into HD as opposed to BD in the first place. The important point here is MORE content, as opposed to ALL the content. It would be different if there were NO good movies on the HD side but there are plenty even as of today. If the average attach rate is somewhere in the neighbourhood of the 25-30 movies per year that was floated around a little while ago then by the time summer rolls around you will have at least that many blockbusters (not just borderline stuff but huge hits) on both sides. At that point I see cheaper hardware being the advantage.

The PS3 is only slightly more expensive than the Toshibas right now but I don't see them lowering the price this year. Meanwhile if the chinese CEs can come in with sub-$300 players it will mean a big surge for HD. BD could still come out of nowhere and release a cheap player as well but there has been no hint of anything like that yet.
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post #431 of 9375 Old 02-01-2007, 05:03 PM
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Originally Posted by darinp2 View Post

I bet both Universal and Disney would have trouble ignoring 2 million people from the other side.

--Darin

Yes, if PS3 could help bluray to reach that 2 million point half a year before HD DVD camp. The war is over. How many >$500 dvd players has been sold since in the first two years? What is the numbers for $200-250 players? I am curious.

HDPLEX
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post #432 of 9375 Old 02-01-2007, 05:07 PM
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Microsoft supports HD DVD because extending this war as long as possible will promote digital distribution (which they want and VC-1 was designed for). They have absolutely no play in this war besides a name.
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post #433 of 9375 Old 02-01-2007, 05:09 PM
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Originally Posted by studiotan View Post

DVD wasn't this far along less than a year after release.

I believe that DVD sold about 300,000 players in their first partial year. I think that was US or NA, but not positive. HD DVD says that had more than 175k in NA. Despite HD DVD not being able to match what DVD in that timeframe, it seems that some here feel that HD DVD won't have any problem beating the 1.1 million or so for DVD for their next year.
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Originally Posted by lymzy View Post

Yes, if PS3 could help bluray to reach that 2 million point half a year before HD DVD camp.

Just in case it wasn't clear, I was talking about 2 million people using a player for HD. That could take 10 million PS3s (if the effective number is 20%).

--Darin

This is the AV Science Forum. Please don't be gullible and please do remember the saying, "Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice, shame on me."
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post #434 of 9375 Old 02-01-2007, 05:09 PM
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Originally Posted by K.L. View Post

Really? If I recall correctly some Microsoft guy said all optical disc would die soon in favor of online distribution. That's why the Xbox 360 HD DVD add-on is an add-on, it's separate to reserve the way to kill it anytime. I bet Microsoft would happily release Blu-ray add-on if necessary.

It wasn't just any old MS guy, it was THE MS guy, Bill Gates himself.
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post #435 of 9375 Old 02-01-2007, 05:14 PM
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Originally Posted by lymzy View Post

Yes, if PS3 could help bluray to reach that 2 million point half a year before HD DVD camp. The war is over. How many >$500 dvd players has been sold since in the first two years? What is the numbers for $200-250 players? I am curious.

Did you mean to say "2 million PS3 owners who would consistently buy Blu-Ray movies"??
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post #436 of 9375 Old 02-01-2007, 05:16 PM
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Originally Posted by studiotan View Post


I tend to believe that cheap hardware will win the day sooner than more content.

I don't know. HD DVD camp certainly doesn't have any cards left for the first half of 2007 AFAIK. They are betting on early adopter market would not make a big difference and PS3 is not a mainstream weapon moviewise. If their market research is right, the tide might change when HD DVD camp bring the sub $250 player half a year before BDA. BTW, hd dvd camp is also betting on the capacity of bluray replication couldn't meet the demand once it become mainstream.

HDPLEX
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post #437 of 9375 Old 02-01-2007, 05:17 PM
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Originally Posted by lymzy View Post

Yes, if PS3 could help bluray to reach that 2 million point half a year before HD DVD camp. The war is over. How many >$500 dvd players has been sold since in the first two years? What is the numbers for $200-250 players? I am curious.

The problem there is it's very difficult to gauge how many PS3s are actually being used to watch movies. Including both game systems and standalones I think BD capable players currently outnumber HD by about 5:1 (correct me if I'm wrong) but this ratio isn't reflected in the sales figures posted in this thread which is a pretty good indication less than half the PS3s are being used for movies.

Plus you need to take into account how many of the people who ARE using it for that are of the "I may as well check out what all the fuss is about" types. I would venture to guess that a lot of people without HD displays bought 3 or 4 movies, couldn't see a difference over their regular DVD players and won't bother spending 3 times as much on BD as the same SD disc in the near future.

Factor in again what will happen when some actual good game content comes out for the PS3 and the future becomes even harder to predict.

I may have missed it but were the Talladega Nights and King Kong bundled discs included in the sales figures?
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post #438 of 9375 Old 02-01-2007, 05:19 PM
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Originally Posted by raaj View Post

Did you mean to say "2 million PS3 owners who would consistently buy Blu-Ray movies"??

Yes.

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post #439 of 9375 Old 02-01-2007, 05:21 PM
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Originally Posted by lymzy View Post

I don't know. HD DVD camp certainly doesn't have any cards left for the first half of 2007 AFAIK. They are betting on early adopter market would not make a big difference and PS3 is not a mainstream weapon moviewise. If their market research is right, the tide might change when HD DVD camp bring the sub $250 player half a year before BDA. BTW, hd dvd camp is also betting on the capacity of bluray couldn't meet the demand once it become mainstream.

Yep, 1st quarter release list looks mighty slim for HD but they have to start releasing some of these promised 300 movies soon. Looking at the promotions group list shows some big movies on the horizon. Coupled with the fact that sales for both camps is probably pretty low overall I can see why HD can afford to bide it's time.

I've said it before and I'll say it again, forum time moves much faster than real world time. 6 months in the real world probably won't mean much in the grand scheme of things but it's an ETERNITY of whining, bickering and hand wringing on these (and other) forums.
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post #440 of 9375 Old 02-01-2007, 05:22 PM
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Originally Posted by joshd2012 View Post

Microsoft supports HD DVD because extending this war as long as possible will promote digital distribution (which they want and VC-1 was designed for). They have absolutely no play in this war besides a name.


They believe HDi and lack of BD+ are better for their big picture/transition of future media delivery. VC-1 is in both format.

HDPLEX
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post #441 of 9375 Old 02-01-2007, 05:23 PM
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Originally Posted by plazman View Post

I see. Because BD is ahead, it doesn't make sense to ask for volume data? That is strange logic indeed.

I am not challenging what HMR is reporting from Videoscan, I am sure they have a valid reason not to show the units shipped for either format or even the top titles sold. However, it does apear that this publication is using data from Videoscan and interview with a selected reviewer to drive a very specific point of view....at least that is how it appears to me.

FWIW, I've said many times that without actual sales, even Amazon's ranking don't tell the whole story.....

If HMR continues to report on sales ratios from Videoscan on a weekly basis, I'll be satisfied. It will show they are simply reporting and not pushing an agenda. That's all. Not illogical at all.

I give credit to dvdempire and Amazon for at least reporting consistently. HMR should do that as well.

Remember, HMR had to pay for Videoscan data, it's not free. Videoscan by no means a comprehensive account of sales. Just to be clear.

I must say I'm a little puzzled by your posts. If I'm missing something, please let me know.

Did you miss my post #418? Videoscan DOES offer some free data.
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post #442 of 9375 Old 02-01-2007, 05:24 PM
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Originally Posted by studiotan View Post

Meanwhile if the chinese CEs can come in with sub-$300 players it will mean a big surge for HD.

When will these mysterious Chinese arrive exactly and how can Toshiba recoup their investment while destroyed by Chinese players in the consumer market?
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post #443 of 9375 Old 02-01-2007, 05:26 PM
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Originally Posted by darinp2 View Post

I believe that DVD sold about 300,000 players in their first partial year. I think that was US or NA, but not positive. HD DVD says that had more than 175k in NA. Despite HD DVD not being able to match what DVD in that timeframe, it seems that some here feel that HD DVD won't have any problem beating the 1.1 million or so for DVD for their next year.

I should have clarified I mean quality software and not hardware sales. Both in terms of quality titles and PQ/AQ both HD and BD are far ahead of initial DVDs IMHO.

Having said that, I thought if you included 360 add-on sales HD was in the vicinity of 250-270k units?
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post #444 of 9375 Old 02-01-2007, 05:32 PM
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Originally Posted by K.L. View Post

When will these mysterious Chinese arrive exactly and how can Toshiba recoup their investment while destroyed by Chinese players in the consumer market?

They are hardly mysterious, there is a list of manufacturers in the CES press releases as well as expected shipping dates of 2Q 2007.

Toshiba is making a profit on current players and I'm sure they will still outclass the chinese CEs in features thereby retaining a consumer base. Whereas those with a limited budgets will have an option. No such option will exist for BD.

By your logic any CE making DVD players that sell for over $50 can't make a profit since you can buy a $30 DVD player in Walmart.

The keyword here is "options". Meridian doesn't seem worried about making an HD player when it will most certainly cost many times what a Toshiba current sells for.
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post #445 of 9375 Old 02-01-2007, 05:32 PM
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Originally Posted by studiotan View Post

The problem there is it's very difficult to gauge how many PS3s are actually being used to watch movies. Including both game systems and standalones I think BD capable players currently outnumber HD by about 5:1 (correct me if I'm wrong) but this ratio isn't reflected in the sales figures posted in this thread which is a pretty good indication less than half the PS3s are being used for movies.

The packages under the tree were just opened a month ago. Does the average HD DVD owner buy all of his/her titles at once?

I would say no. They budget themselves; maybe one disc a week, maybe less, some more.
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post #446 of 9375 Old 02-01-2007, 05:34 PM
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Originally Posted by studiotan View Post

Yep, 1st quarter release list looks mighty slim for HD but they have to start releasing some of these promised 300 movies soon. Looking at the promotions group list shows some big movies on the horizon. Coupled with the fact that sales for both camps is probably pretty low overall I can see why HD can afford to bide it's time.

I've said it before and I'll say it again, forum time moves much faster than real world time. 6 months in the real world probably won't mean much in the grand scheme of things but it's an ETERNITY of whining, bickering and hand wringing on these (and other) forums.

Gotta' give ya' that one.
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post #447 of 9375 Old 02-01-2007, 05:36 PM
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Originally Posted by studiotan View Post

They are hardly mysterious, there is a list of manufacturers in the CES press releases as well as expected shipping dates of 2Q 2007.

Toshiba is making a profit on current players and I'm sure they will still outclass the chinese CEs in features thereby retaining a consumer base. Whereas those with a limited budgets will have an option. No such option will exist for BD.

By your logic any CE making DVD players that sell for over $50 can't make a profit since you can buy a $30 DVD player in Walmart.

The keyword here is "options". Meridian doesn't seem worried about making an HD player when it will most certainly cost many times what a Toshiba current sells for.

I thought that Meridian announcement was false. No?
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post #448 of 9375 Old 02-01-2007, 05:36 PM
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Originally Posted by studiotan View Post

They are hardly mysterious, there is a list of manufacturers in the CES press releases as well as expected shipping dates of 2Q 2007.

Toshiba is making a profit on current players and I'm sure they will still outclass the chinese CEs in features thereby retaining a consumer base. Whereas those with a limited budgets will have an option. No such option will exist for BD.

By your logic any CE making DVD players that sell for over $50 can't make a profit since you can buy a $30 DVD player in Walmart.

The keyword here is "options". Meridian doesn't seem worried about making an HD player when it will most certainly cost many times what a Toshiba current sells for.

I mean how "sub-$300 player" can be possible by them. If Chinese guys can do it in this year it's indeed mysterious to me. Any details?
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post #449 of 9375 Old 02-01-2007, 05:39 PM
 
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Originally Posted by Sketcha View Post

I must say I'm a little puzzled by your posts. If I'm missing something, please let me know.

Did you miss my post #418? Videoscan DOES offer some free data.

I was responding to a post by Mr. JBlacklow who was questioning why I would be interested in sales volume since I didn't bring it up when HD DVD was ahead. So that is why you may have been puzzled...

In any case, do you know for a fact that what HMR was reporting was free data? If yes, how come they didn't publish anything while HD DVD was ahead? Perhaps they did, but I can't seem to find in on HMR! I agree on the top ranking of titles, these are provided by Videoscan and have been reported by multiple sites on a regular basis. I have no problems with that.

However, IF HMR provides sales updates from Videoscan on a regular basis, I will buy the fact that they are an unbiased site and are merely reporting what they are finding. Otherwise, they are simply massaging information (not data) to propogate BD.

That is just my humble opinion. I also found it strange that they would use this data and in their following issue follow up with a research analyst to talk about why BD will win. Not only that, but the researcher in question:

1. Dismissed the impact of Chinese Players in the cost of hardware.

2. Did not even mention MSFT, but only Universal and Toshiba as backers of HD DVD

3. Talked about $400 BD players, when none have been announced and even Sony said they did not see this happening for 2-3 years...

These are musings of a pre-determined supporter of one format v. another. Nothing wrong if it came from a FOx rep. But not when it comes from a supposed neutral media avenue...

My 2 cents...
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post #450 of 9375 Old 02-01-2007, 05:41 PM
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Sketcha View Post

I thought that Meridian announcement was false. No?

No. I believe there was a rep from Meridian who came to the Insiders Thread to specifically say that what Amir has posted about working with Meridian on a player was true. FWIW.

Looks like the FUD being spread by some of the BD folks on this forum spread to you as well (unfortunately).

Originally Posted by MeridianHQ
Just to clear this up:

1) Amir's statements at CES regarding Meridian were correct.
2) Meridian's position has been made clear in the release on our media server. (apologies, this BB seems not to want us to put a url since we are 'new'!)
3) Our interest should not be a surprise since Meridian has been deeply involved in the development and standardisation of HD (and BD) specifications, of tool sets and of peripheral technologies, through our work on the lossless coding.
4) We apologise that a member of our CES crew did not have the whole story and made comments that caused confusion.

However, and to stem any ongoing discussion, please note that Meridian has a general policy not to pre-announce specific models, price ranges, availability or feature sets for any of the several product categories we have in regular development.
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