Nielsen/VideoScan sales ratios and Top 5 - Page 163 - AVS Forum
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post #4861 of 9375 Old 04-16-2007, 10:51 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by asj2006 View Post

This used to be a thread with ACTUAL numbers (well, at least ratios and calculated numbers), now we get flaming going on as well....me, ill just wait for icemage's stats....

We "are" discussing numbers.

Just, perhaps, not the ones you want?
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post #4862 of 9375 Old 04-16-2007, 10:51 AM
 
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Originally Posted by SyHD View Post

Fourth grade common sense? Its a graph of stock on hand at Amazon. When Amazon add stocks, the slope will be upwards if its more than the rate of sales. The slope will go downwards if the rate of sale is greater than the rate of restocking.


So if you sell 200 units and receive 175, the graph goes down by 25. So you are saying this should count for 25 sales!

So unless you know what the inflow was, you cannot determine the outflow by looking at the change in slope. So, when that line shows an upward slope, it IS proof that that chart has both inflow and outflow and hence cannot be used to determine sales (outflow) by looking at the change in the slope of the line. make sense?
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post #4863 of 9375 Old 04-16-2007, 10:53 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Sketcha View Post

"I must've hit it pretty close to the mark to get (you) all riled up like that eh...?"

Ouch, dude!

I think if you examine my posts carefully, you will find that I rarely "take" this thread off topic. I do respond to posts that I feel require a response, however and yes, some of those posts had already gone off topic. That said, I am happy to say that you almost never go off topic on this thread and your posts are very often informative, and often much more so than mine.

As for the rest of your post above, I'll let Grubert's post #4830 speak to it. Justify it all you wish, but gloating over an Amazon group buy, on this thread is not to topic.

Wasn't trying to gloat, although others might have. I just thought it had some validity in demonstrating the volumes involved and had some thought s on when/if it would hit the N/V stats.

But I feel any points on that have been now beaten to a pulp, and I've had my say.

But at this point, I feel I am contributing to the delinquency of a rdjam, so I'll try to restrain myself.

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post #4864 of 9375 Old 04-16-2007, 10:54 AM
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Originally Posted by rdjam View Post

It's the USE of the chart I contested. The chart is what it is. The SALES charts are what they are.

There is no debate at all that HD DVD has outsold BD here.

It's rather ridiculous the amount of effort being expended to try to argue with that simple FACT.

To what "SALES" carts are you referring? You don't mean rankings, do you?
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post #4865 of 9375 Old 04-16-2007, 10:54 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by plazman View Post

So if you sell 200 units and receive 175, the graph goes down by 25. So you are saying this should count for 25 sales!

So unless you know what the inflow was, you cannot determine the outflow by looking at the change in slope. So, when that line shows an upward slope, it IS proof that that chart has both inflow and outflow and hence cannot be used to determine sales (outflow) by looking at the change in the slope of the line. make sense?

How many shipments do you think Amazon received on a Sunday, Plaz?
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post #4866 of 9375 Old 04-16-2007, 10:55 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Grubert View Post

Devoting a huge number of posts to amazon exactly when there is an orchestrated purchase drive is partisan at best.

In your opinion.

The fact is, that these Amazon charts are a leading indicator.

Sales today will not be released by Videoscan until Next week Wednesday, 10 days away.

Your implication that no one can discuss what those numbers may show, especially since we have indications of that, seems far more partisan.

Evryone has a good time discussing these when BD is in the lead? Why the sudden change of heart, then?
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post #4867 of 9375 Old 04-16-2007, 11:00 AM
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Originally Posted by Kosty View Post

But at this point, I feel I am contributing to the delinquency of a rdjam, so I'll try to restrain myself.



I appreciate that. It is big of you to move on. Respect restored.

I'm no saint in this. After wasting my time trying to get through all the Amazon charts today, I couldn't help but register my disdain which, of course led to more off-topic posts. I'm calling it quits as well.

Now I'm just disappointed that you didn't get my movie-line quote.
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post #4868 of 9375 Old 04-16-2007, 11:00 AM
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Originally Posted by Sketcha View Post

To what "SALES" carts are you referring? You don't mean rankings, do you?

Doh - we know what they are, don't you think? Splitting hairs, sketch? They are ranking that are representative of sales, so we call them sales charts as a generic term, ya know..

Or were you simply looking for a cheap shot?

Anyway, the REAL question - moving on from the arguments - is how long will this surge last?

And, is the overall trend of HD DVD in the last three weeks going to level off or continue climbing.

My feeling is that there is a lot of enthusiam in the HD DVD camp right now.

With the second universal player hitting the market this year (and possibly TWO more) people are more relaxed about investing in movie discs, and not being as susceptible to Fear about the future of their particular format.

I think we'll see this continue for a couple months - HD DVD will have solidified the lead within 5 weeks, IMO.
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post #4869 of 9375 Old 04-16-2007, 11:01 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Kosty View Post

Wasn't trying to gloat, although others might have. I just thought it had some validity in demonstrating the volumes involved and had some thought s on when/if it would hit the N/V stats.

But I feel any points on that have been now beaten to a pulp, and I've had my say.

But at this point, I feel I am contributing to the delinquency of a rdjam, so I'll try to restrain myself.

Apologies to all for the momentary exhuberance.

As long as we agree that the discussion of contributory sales figues is relevant - then let us proceed with respect.

Peace.

Back to moving discussion forward:

Anyway, the REAL question - moving on - is how long will this surge last?

And, is the overall trend of HD DVD in the last three weeks going to level off or continue climbing.

My feeling is that there is a lot of enthusiam in the HD DVD camp right now.

With the second universal player hitting the market this year (and possibly TWO more) people are more relaxed about investing in movie discs, and not being as susceptible to Fear about the future of their particular format.

I think we'll see this continue for a couple months - HD DVD will have solidified the lead within 5 weeks, IMO.
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post #4870 of 9375 Old 04-16-2007, 11:03 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by plazman View Post

So if you sell 200 units and receive 175, the graph goes down by 25. So you are saying this should count for 25 sales!

So unless you know what the inflow was, you cannot determine the outflow by looking at the change in slope. So, when that line shows an upward slope, it IS proof that that chart has both inflow and outflow and hence cannot be used to determine sales (outflow) by looking at the change in the slope of the line. make sense?

Clearly this is not a sale chart. I never indicated that it was. Its a chart of stock on hand at Amazon. You can only ascertain so much from it. I thought my rate explanation was sufficient enough to indicate what the graphs were all about and the fact I understood the graph? Like I told you before, I assumed that there was no restocking last Saturday/Sunday because there were no upper slopes on the graphs and its a Sunday. Like any assumption, I might be off-based but its the most logical assumption. Even if there were restocking, it was insignificant or the same amount for both. In any which case, my point is probably still valid. Take for what it is.

Yes, I have understood all along ...thank you very much.

Does price really matter if you are buying a ticket on the Titanic?
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post #4871 of 9375 Old 04-16-2007, 11:05 AM
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Originally Posted by Sketcha View Post

Is this sentence structured the way you meant it to be?

I think so. My guess is that this co-ordinated buying will not affect Nielsen data in a major way.
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post #4872 of 9375 Old 04-16-2007, 11:08 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by SyHD View Post

Clearly this is not a sale chart. I never indicated that it was. Its a chart of stock on hand at Amazon. You can only ascertain so much from it. Like I told you before, I assumed that there was no restocking last Saturday/Sunday because there were no upper slopes on the graphs and its a Sunday. Like any assumption, I might be off-based but its the most logical assumption. Even if there were restocking, it was insignificant or the same amount for both. In any which case, my point is probably still valid. Take for what it is.

Unfortunately we haven't been able to crack Amazon stock numbers and the way they move. Otherwise it would have given us a good indicator - but that is not the case.

Even rankings do not tell the whole story - in that it has some residual effect (past sales affect current ranking).

I suggest a new thread to talk about Amazon rankings, numbers and its overall importance in Nielsen numbers.
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post #4873 of 9375 Old 04-16-2007, 11:08 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by rdjam View Post

Or were you simply looking for a cheap shot?

Cheap AND easy.

I'm glad to see you are ready to get back down to business. I think there is some relevance to the amazon charts pertaining to the following week's VS figures. It was all those up-to-the-minute Amazon charts that I was less than thrilled about. I guess if in 10 days, or whatever it is, we need to refer back to them, they won't be hard to find.
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post #4874 of 9375 Old 04-16-2007, 11:11 AM
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Originally Posted by nataraj View Post

I think so. My guess is that this co-ordinated buying will not affect Nielsen data in a major way.

Roger that.

I agree.
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post #4875 of 9375 Old 04-16-2007, 11:11 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Sketcha View Post

How many shipments do you think Amazon received on a Sunday, Plaz?


On the chart in question, I believe there is just one data point for each day. So if Amazon received a shipment on Friday, and checked it into inventory on Saturday AFTER the data point for that day was collected, then the increase in inventory would occur on Sunday, which would mask the sales volume.

The same can happen for a decrease. We overstocked and have a return policy with the manufacturer. On Saturday, after the data point is taken, Amazon employees pull stock to return. The inventory is updated, and we see the decrease on Sunday.

In both examples, no employees need be present on Sunday.

I've never bought into the "nothing checked in on Sunday so we can use that data to calculate volume" line of thinking. I think it yields false results.
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post #4876 of 9375 Old 04-16-2007, 11:15 AM
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by SyHD View Post

Clearly this is not a sale chart. I never indicated that it was. Its a chart of stock on hand at Amazon. You can only ascertain so much from it. I thought my rate explanation was sufficient enough to indicate what the graphs were all about and the fact I understood the graph? Like I told you before, I assumed that there was no restocking last Saturday/Sunday because there were no upper slopes on the graphs and its a Sunday. Like any assumption, I might be off-based but its the most logical assumption. Even if there were restocking, it was insignificant or the same amount for both. In any which case, my point is probably still valid. Take for what it is.

Yes, I have understood all along ...thank you very much.

Why would you assume that restocking was insignificant and it would be the same for both formats? I would say given the high inventory that already exists for BD that restocking for HD DVD is more likely to higher going forward, until the BD inventory was exhausted to an extent....
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post #4877 of 9375 Old 04-16-2007, 11:18 AM
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Originally Posted by Kosty View Post

That is exactly what I wanted to see.

If the spike in Amazon from April 15th would show in the Nielson/Videoscan numbers over time.

Sorry, if my posts seemed like posturing.

Just got my fur up I guess.

Sorry, I did not mean to point fingers at you personally. Your posts here are ordinarily valid to the topic of discussion. It is the sudden influx of unnecessary posts boasting about the sales spike from yesterday's event that I was mostly referring to with the posturing.
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post #4878 of 9375 Old 04-16-2007, 11:19 AM
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Originally Posted by SyHD View Post

I am sorry for having to post one last graph about the April 15th Bubble, but hopefully this will be it. Blu-ray actually outsold HD DVD during the bubble. Blu-ray moved more actual copies. How ironic!


I think this chart can be spun in different ways.

- Amazon ordered more BD than they have been able to sell, building up huge inventory.
- If BD is selling about 2:1 compared to HD DVD, why is Amazon holding 5 times the inventory ?
- Did Amazon return some inventory since they realized they are overstocked ?
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post #4879 of 9375 Old 04-16-2007, 11:20 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by plazman View Post

Why would you assume that restocking was insignificant and it would be the same for both formats? I would say given the high inventory that already exists for BD that restocking for HD DVD is more likely to higher going forward, until the BD inventory was exhausted to an extent....

Restocking is only higher if HD DVD was outselling Blu-ray in the previous weeks/days. From all indications, Blu-ray was outselling HD DVD on Amazon for a very long time before the April 15th bubble.

Does price really matter if you are buying a ticket on the Titanic?
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post #4880 of 9375 Old 04-16-2007, 11:21 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by plazman View Post

Why would you assume that restocking was insignificant and it would be the same for both formats? I would say given the high inventory that already exists for BD that restocking for HD DVD is more likely to higher going forward, until the BD inventory was exhausted to an extent....

And why would you assume that? Given that Neilsen has shown sales to be relatively flat for months... AND the chart in question is flat, why would they make such a sudden change? A little coincidental don't you think?

Get your Ockham on, my friend.
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post #4881 of 9375 Old 04-16-2007, 11:23 AM
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Code:
Day      Week         YTD         SI
01/07  63.3/36.7      n/a         n/a
01/14  68.2/31.8      n/a         n/a
01/21  67.8/32.2   66.4/33.6   45.1/54.9
01/28  68.8/31.2   67.0/33.0   46.7/53.3
02/04  69.0/31.0   67.4/32.6   48.1/51.9      
02/11  69.6/30.4   67.7/32.3   49.3/50.7
02/18  65.0/35.0   67.4/32.6   50.3/49.7
02/25  68.5/31.5   67.4/32.6   51.5/48.5
03/04  65.7/34.3   67.2/32.8   52.2/47.8
03/11  68.7/31.3   67.9/32.1   52.8/47.2
03/18  81.7/18.3   69.2/30.8   54.3/45.7
03/25     n/a      70.4/29.6   55.6/44.4
04/01     n/a      69.9/30.1   56.2/43.8
04/08  62.4/37.6   69.4/30.6   56.4/43.6
Grubert,

Don't those Nielson/Videoscan numbers show a significant rebound for HD DVD during the last couple weeks, ie since the dataset that was released from Sony ended?

And P.S: Isn't that the same thing that the Amazon trackings sites were previously showing for those periods??



simplifying a bit for clarity;
Code:
Week   BD   HD     Ratio    
01/07  64%  36%    1.78  
01/14  68%  32%    2.13
01/21  68%  32%    2.13
01/28  69%  31%    2.23
02/04  69%  31%    2.23
02/11  70%  30%    2.33
02/18  65%  35%    1.86
02/25  69%  31%    2.23
03/04  66%  34%    1.94
03/11  69%  31%    2.23
03/18  82%  18 %   4.56  Sony releases data, Best Blu-ray showing all year
03/25  n/a                        
04/01  n/a                         
04/08  62%  38%    1.63  Best showing for HD DVD all year 
Why do you think Sony choose to release the 3/18th data?

If it wasn't for the Amazon tracking as a leading indicator and other sources to compare the lagging Nielson/Videoscan to , the Sony selected data period would have been unchallenged, and the change in HD DVD sales trends would have been downplayed.

The data from multiple sources gives a better picture.

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post #4882 of 9375 Old 04-16-2007, 11:28 AM
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[quote=Kosty]
Code:
Day      Week         YTD         SI
01/07  63.3/36.7      n/a         n/a
01/14  68.2/31.8      n/a         n/a
01/21  67.8/32.2   66.4/33.6   45.1/54.9
01/28  68.8/31.2   67.0/33.0   46.7/53.3
02/04  69.0/31.0   67.4/32.6   48.1/51.9      
02/11  69.6/30.4   67.7/32.3   49.3/50.7
02/18  65.0/35.0   67.4/32.6   50.3/49.7
02/25  68.5/31.5   67.4/32.6   51.5/48.5
03/04  65.7/34.3   67.2/32.8   52.2/47.8
03/11  68.7/31.3   67.9/32.1   52.8/47.2
03/18  81.7/18.3   69.2/30.8   54.3/45.7
03/25     n/a      70.4/29.6   55.6/44.4
04/01     n/a      69.9/30.1   56.2/43.8
04/08  62.4/37.6   69.4/30.6   56.4/43.6
I may have missed this earlier in the thread, but how can the YTD share go down for Blu-Ray compared to last week, but the SI go up?
Were 04/01 and 03/25 estimates? Or am I missing something obvious in how Blu-Ray could lose share YTD while gaining share SI?
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post #4883 of 9375 Old 04-16-2007, 11:28 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by nataraj View Post

I think this chart can be spun in different ways.

- Amazon ordered more BD than they have been able to sell, building up huge inventory.
- If BD is selling about 2:1 compared to HD DVD, why is Amazon holding 5 times the inventory ?
- Did Amazon return some inventory since they realized they are overstocked ?

1. Again, Ochkam.

2. It's less than 4 times. Given the recent upswing (though subsequent downswing) to 4:1, this would be, not at all unreasonable. If they are responding to the downswing, then your saying they just happened to do that yesterday?

3. Coincidences are stacking up.

We can't be exactly sure of just what the graph change is representative. However the most responsible theory is that of sales over the weekend.
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post #4884 of 9375 Old 04-16-2007, 11:31 AM
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[quote=BrynRhys]
Quote:
Originally Posted by Kosty View Post

Code:
Day      Week         YTD         SI
01/07  63.3/36.7      n/a         n/a
01/14  68.2/31.8      n/a         n/a
01/21  67.8/32.2   66.4/33.6   45.1/54.9
01/28  68.8/31.2   67.0/33.0   46.7/53.3
02/04  69.0/31.0   67.4/32.6   48.1/51.9      
02/11  69.6/30.4   67.7/32.3   49.3/50.7
02/18  65.0/35.0   67.4/32.6   50.3/49.7
02/25  68.5/31.5   67.4/32.6   51.5/48.5
03/04  65.7/34.3   67.2/32.8   52.2/47.8
03/11  68.7/31.3   67.9/32.1   52.8/47.2
03/18  81.7/18.3   69.2/30.8   54.3/45.7
03/25     n/a      70.4/29.6   55.6/44.4
04/01     n/a      69.9/30.1   56.2/43.8
04/08  62.4/37.6   69.4/30.6   56.4/43.6
I may have missed this earlier in the thread, but how can the YTD share go down for Blu-Ray compared to last week, but the SI go up?
Were 04/01 and 03/25 estimates? Or am I missing something obvious in how Blu-Ray could lose share YTD while gaining share SI?

Weekly ratio is higher than prior SI but lower than prior YTD.
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post #4885 of 9375 Old 04-16-2007, 11:32 AM
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[quote=patrick99]
Quote:
Originally Posted by BrynRhys View Post


Weekly ratio is higher than prior SI but lower than prior YTD.

Thanks!
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post #4886 of 9375 Old 04-16-2007, 11:39 AM
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Out of curiosity, are all these free HD DVD offers being reflected in the sales? Or does that not factor in?
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post #4887 of 9375 Old 04-16-2007, 11:39 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Sketcha View Post

1. Again, Ochkam.

I miss the meaning of that.

Quote:


We can't be exactly sure of just what the graph change is representative. However the most responsible theory is that of sales over the weekend.

I'm not going to argue what is more responsible in a vacuum - but as I emphasised the data can be "spun" in various ways. I was giving one example. You are giving another.

Anyway, as I said, let us take this talk to a different thread.
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post #4888 of 9375 Old 04-16-2007, 11:45 AM
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Originally Posted by GBFreek View Post

Out of curiosity, are all these free HD DVD offers being reflected in the sales? Or does that not factor in?

The Toshiba HD DVD pRG mail in Free DVDs rebate is probably not figured in.

Its unknown if the Circuit City receive 3 or 4? disc at the time of purchase will be included with the Nielson/Videoscan stats. Normal practice is if it goes through a retail scanner and the consumer had a choice of title it counts. It is unlikely but possible, that someone at Nielson/Videoscan can make a judgment call and conclude those should not be counted as sales, but IMHO that is unlikely. The main purpose of N/V is to show differences between titles and it would be tough to seperate out what discs were associated with that promotion. N/V does not usu sally separate out retail promotions so those Free CC discs with purchase will probably count, even if they show up as $0.00 sales.

We will have to wait and see, and someone may eventually release information on the decision.

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post #4889 of 9375 Old 04-16-2007, 11:47 AM
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Is there a way to just remove all of rdjam's post or ignore them?

How many threads can you get closed in one day? Then you carry your drivel over into here.

Yes, HD DVD sales have gone up a bit...but they are still nearly 1/2 that of BD...if that makes you tingle, I feel sad for you.

Either way, sales of both are anemic...
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post #4890 of 9375 Old 04-16-2007, 11:48 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by nataraj View Post

I miss the meaning of that.

I assume he's referring to Ockham's razor... a principle that states (in essence) that the simpliest solution is often the answer. That is, don't needlessly add complicated assumptions when trying to explain something.


How that directly applies to these value "inventory stock" charts is beyond me... but there you go.
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