Originally Posted by nataraj
Never seen that figure. If it was so high it would have definitely been mentioned in some PR
NPD figures for consoles is coming on 19th. NPD usually releases numbers on the Thursday after the end of their month (not calendar).
The 200k number was tossed about in this very forum. It was speculation on the part of AVSr's. Basically, when Toshiba said that 175k (standalone, addon, pc drives) HD-DVD players had been sold at CES, and then NPD said BD has sold an equal number of standalones, the standalone figure was pegged at being 175k too. The same thing happened again not long ago when people were guessing at the number of addons + standalones through March. The same, BD has sold just as many standalones arguement came into play.
However, this statement from Toshiba seems to say:
Total BD drives to market: <100k standalones + pc drives + PS3's = ?
Total HD DVD drives to market: >100k standalones + pc drives + 360 addons = ?
To me, this indicates that BD and HD-DVD may be on very equal footing so far. HD-DVD leads in standalones. We don't know about PC drives, but globally, HD-DVD has the lead at a 7:3 for laptops, and lets assume BD has the lead for desktops, so we will call that roughly equal.
It all goes back to the PS3 vs. addon arguement. Only a portion of PS3's are used to play BD movies. 100% of addons are used to play HD-DVD's. So it seems this is where the hardware race gets decided. If only 25% of US PS3 hardware is used for BD, then that is 250k players or so. The Xbox 360 had like 80k players at the end of 2006, and maybe has 125-150k now. Add on a guesstimated 20k standalone lead for HD-DVD and you arrive at a guestimated difference of maybe 75k effective (actually used to play movies) hardware players.
Maybe Nielsen data is showing us the true difference in hardware. If BD owners who bought hardware for movie playback and HD-DVD owners who did the same have the same purchasing habits, maybe the 30k more disc sales seen by BD each month indicates there are 30k-60k more effective BD players on the market currently. If so, it seems logical that the two formats will reach parity soon, as HD-DVD standalone sales seem to be increasing in rate, while PS3 sales seem to be declining. So HD-DVD may be adding more effective players to the market each month, thus gaining back lost ground.