Nielsen/VideoScan sales ratios and Top 5 - Page 166 - AVS Forum
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post #4951 of 9375 Old 04-16-2007, 08:33 PM
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Originally Posted by SyHD View Post

The movie was good ...if you don't fall asleep. Its basically a 3 hr dialog movie with little to no action. It wasn't a bad movie but I would not waste 3 hrs to watch it again.

Yeah, I'm glad I rented it because I fell asleep.
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post #4952 of 9375 Old 04-16-2007, 08:34 PM
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Well, with that big spoiler that was just let out, I don't think I'll spend time to watch this movie. Sheesh. What's the point of watching if I know that in the last scene, one of the characters is going to light a paper?
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post #4953 of 9375 Old 04-17-2007, 12:54 AM
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Originally Posted by Kosty View Post

For the record, I think that HD DVD will consistently pull ahead of Blu-ray in the Nielson in the 4th quarter. I think HD DVD will close the gap over the next three months and will be neck and neck in the 3rd quarter.

So noted.

For the record I think that the BD lead over the summer will be maintained at between 2:1 and 3:1 depending on new releases (that's YTD of course - weekly fluctuations will see BD's lead rise above 4:1 or fall below 2:1 depending on various factors).

When the winter selling season starts it's likely that a YTD ratio of 4:1 or even 5:1 will be achieved as Blu-ray hammers home the studio advantage.

As a reference point the YTD ratio reported by Nielsen VideoScan as at week ending April 8th was Blu-ray 69% and HD DVD 31%.
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post #4954 of 9375 Old 04-17-2007, 08:02 AM
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Originally Posted by fozziwig View Post

So noted.

For the record I think that the BD lead over the summer will be maintained at between 2:1 and 3:1 depending on new releases (that's YTD of course - weekly fluctuations will see BD's lead rise above 4:1 or fall below 2:1 depending on various factors).

When the winter selling season starts it's likely that a YTD ratio of 4:1 or even 5:1 will be achieved as Blu-ray hammers home the studio advantage.

As a reference point the YTD ratio reported by Nielsen VideoScan as at week ending April 8th was Blu-ray 69% and HD DVD 31%.

The vast majority of PS3's were and will be bought by gamers, and BD sales to them drop when the novelty falls off. So any advantage in sales to PS3 drops off with time. Now do you expect PS3 sales to continue at the rate it did at introduction, or even, accelerate? That's what they have to do to maintain the gap, while standalone HD players continue to steadily sell to movie buffs
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post #4955 of 9375 Old 04-17-2007, 08:10 AM
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Originally Posted by WayneL View Post

The vast majority of PS3's were and will be bought by gamers, and BD sales to them drop when the novelty falls off. So any advantage in sales to PS3 drops off with time. Now do you expect PS3 sales to continue at the rate it did at introduction, or even, accelerate? That's what they have to do to maintain the gap, while standalone HD players continue to steadily sell to movie buffs

Last time I heard, standalone players were neck-and-neck. Has that changed? If not, then it would only be required that PS3 sales out pace 360 add-ons. My guess is, they will.
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post #4956 of 9375 Old 04-17-2007, 08:16 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by SyHD View Post

The movie was good ...if you don't fall asleep. Its basically a 3 hr dialog movie with little to no action. It wasn't a bad movie but I would not waste 3 hrs to watch it again.

I'm a three hours of dialog (if it's good) kind of guy.

I have nearly a couple 1000 DVDs, only about 2% could be characterized as "action-pictures"

I've never owned any 007, Indiana Jones, Jurassic Park, Star Wars, Spider Man, Batman, Terminator, or Mission Impossible type films; just not my cup.
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post #4957 of 9375 Old 04-17-2007, 08:20 AM
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Originally Posted by Sketcha View Post

Last time I heard, standalone players were neck-and-neck. Has that changed? If not, then it would only be required that PS3 sales out pace 360 add-ons. My guess is, they will.


When is the last time you heard? I'm not being a smarty-pants, just curious if if HD players drawing closer to the $300 threshold has made any difference. Amazon seems to move a lot more HD DVD players than BD.
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post #4958 of 9375 Old 04-17-2007, 08:23 AM
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Originally Posted by Sketcha View Post

Last time I heard, standalone players were neck-and-neck. Has that changed? If not, then it would only be required that PS3 sales out pace 360 add-ons. My guess is, they will.

I haven't seen any numbers, but I kind of doubt BD's higher price players are keeping up. This goes back to the year-end "market share" where higher price BD's were out-selling unavailable HD players. In $ or numbers, we still don't know.
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post #4959 of 9375 Old 04-17-2007, 08:33 AM
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Originally Posted by Timothy Ramzyk View Post

When is the last time you heard? I'm not being a smarty-pants, just curious if if HD players drawing closer to the $300 threshold has made any difference. Amazon seems to move a lot more HD DVD players than BD.

It's been awhile.

One problem with bias is we tend not to view the evidence with complete impartiality. Of course, that's why we benefit from discourse.

It is more than a little bit difficult to judge player sales from Amazon rankings. The problem is, there is not just one player on each side. Blu-ray has a whole host of players. They could all be ranked well below the few that HD DVD has to offer, yet cumulatively outsell HD DVD.

This, BTW is another part of the BD strategy. Just more models in the stores, nearly all of which are big names.
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post #4960 of 9375 Old 04-17-2007, 08:47 AM
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Originally Posted by Sketcha View Post

Last time I heard, standalone players were neck-and-neck. Has that changed? If not, then it would only be required that PS3 sales out pace 360 add-ons. My guess is, they will.

Curiously unlike Toshiba which has given some numbers from time to time, BD group companies haven't released a single number about CE player sales.
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post #4961 of 9375 Old 04-17-2007, 08:59 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Sketcha View Post

Last time I heard, standalone players were neck-and-neck. Has that changed? If not, then it would only be required that PS3 sales out pace 360 add-ons. My guess is, they will.

I'm still of the opinion that the statements talking about the NPD report of standalone players neck and neck was a distortion of the real NPD findings in that they implied that the numbers of players sold were neck and neck, while the actual NPD report really said that sales revenues were neck and neck, but HD DVD still had a significant margin in units sold.

That being said, the latest reports attributed to NPD on HD player sales were back in Jan AFAIK, and that is stale, as the HD A2 and HD XA2 have now been available in inventory and their prices have dropped far below any other Blu-ray standalone player.

Toshiba has given some numbers from time to time, including a statement a month ago that second generation sales units sold surpassed first generation sales.

That was before the price reductions to the MRSP. Lower prices also generate higher sales. It logical to assume HD A2 and HD XA2 sales have accelerated.

Toshiba has pointedly mentioned high unit sales. This year Blu-ray companies have been noticably silent on standalone unit sales. Since the BDA brags about everything they can, it probable that standalone sales haven't been a strong point.

I know that CC in my region is selling much much more HD A2s than any Blu-ray player, despite the fact that Blu-ray has more POS signage.

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post #4962 of 9375 Old 04-17-2007, 09:04 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by WayneL View Post

The vast majority of PS3's were and will be bought by gamers, and BD sales to them drop when the novelty falls off. So any advantage in sales to PS3 drops off with time. Now do you expect PS3 sales to continue at the rate it did at introduction, or even, accelerate? That's what they have to do to maintain the gap, while standalone HD players continue to steadily sell to movie buffs

This is what I was saying:

Quote:


For the record I think that the BD lead over the summer will be maintained at between 2:1 and 3:1 depending on new releases (that's YTD of course - weekly fluctuations will see BD's lead rise above 4:1 or fall below 2:1 depending on various factors).

When the winter selling season starts it's likely that a YTD ratio of 4:1 or even 5:1 will be achieved as Blu-ray hammers home the studio advantage.

In fact, that's actually what I said! No mention of PS3 in there that I can see.

I note that you don't agree with my forecast. I'm sure you are not alone.
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post #4963 of 9375 Old 04-17-2007, 09:08 AM
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Originally Posted by Kosty View Post

I'm still of the opinion that the statements talking about the NPD report of standalone players neck and neck was a distortion of the real NPD findings in that they implied that the numbers of players sold were neck and neck, while the actual NPD report really said that sales revenues were neck and neck, but HD DVD still had a significant margin in units sold.

Where did you get that idea from?

Quote:


Despite price differences, high-definition stand-alone Blu-ray and HD DVD players are neck-and-neck in sales, according to the NPD Group.

Between April and December, 48% of high-def stand-alones sold were Blu-ray and the remaining 52% were HD DVD. Blu-ray stand-alones, including models by Sony, Samsung, Philips and Pioneer, are priced at about $1,000 and up. In contrast, certain Toshiba HD DVD models can be found for about $500.

One possible contributing factor to the results is that retailers have noted tight Toshiba inventory relative to the flusher availability of stand-alone Blu-ray players.

http://www.videobusiness.com/article/CA6413168.html

Seems pretty clear to me. They are talking about UNIT SALES.
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post #4964 of 9375 Old 04-17-2007, 09:14 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by WayneL View Post

I haven't seen any numbers, but I kind of doubt BD's higher price players are keeping up. This goes back to the year-end "market share" where higher price BD's were out-selling unavailable HD players. In $ or numbers, we still don't know.

It was something like 45:55 in January or Febuary (after the holiday reports came in). It should definitely prove interesting to see if Toshiba's price drops have helped or not, as well as how sales will look towards holidays 07 when the lowered price Blu-ray standalones have been out. So far, the BDA strategy has been to concede the low ground to the PS3 while they concentrated on the high end (and according to Robert at VE had much higher margins than his Tosh HDDVD players).

EDIT: Ah there you go, 48:52.

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post #4965 of 9375 Old 04-17-2007, 09:36 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by fozziwig View Post

Where did you get that idea from?



http://www.videobusiness.com/article/CA6413168.html

Seems pretty clear to me. They are talking about UNIT SALES.

I talked to someone who say the actual report. From what I heard at CES from people who attended a briefing from NPD.

The article clearly implied unit sales, I agree, Thats the way I read it too.

But it was possible the writer was mislead, and did not actually see the actual report or misinterpreted what was carefully told to them.

That report was based on the EOY data that was reported at CES. I have talked to 3 other people who saw that data who said it clearly showed that EOY standalone units sales were 2:1 in HD DVDs favor but sales revenues were about even because on average Blu-ray players cost twice as much. that would be a success in itself as double the price usually leads to less than half the sales.

I first heard the story of the NPD briefing at CES by some people I shared a cab with at CES.

As I said before YMMV. This is my opinion only, but its based on some concrete information. I have not found any other published reports to back my unsubstantiated claim.

It would not be te first time that a company mislead a reporter. I mean if someone told you HD players sales were about even 52% to 48% you might assume that meant unit sales, while the person telling you that could have known it meant revenues. I would not put it past a format backer to mislead someone in this manner.

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post #4966 of 9375 Old 04-17-2007, 09:38 AM
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http://www.avsforum.com/avs-vb/showthread.php?t=835640

Doesn't this contradict some of what was previously believed here. According to a new press release from the HD-DVD group, HD-DVD is the first format to 100,000 sold standalone players (not counting PC and 360 addon drives).

Haven't we seen estimates of 200k Bluray standalones before? Apparently all BD standalones combined have fewer than 100k units.

I'm assuming this comes from the latest NPD report for March, which was due out this week I think (which would also mean it doesn't include sales figures from the Apr 1 price drop and the 5+4 BB and CC promotions).

This also raises the question, how are the LG and upcoming Samsung Duo hardware going to be counted? I'm assuming that since the LG lacks the HD-DVD logo, it won't be in this 100k number. For the duo, will a new catagory emerge, or will it be counted as a sale by both camps?
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post #4967 of 9375 Old 04-17-2007, 09:52 AM
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It does not mention its from NPD.

If it was from NPD it might miss retailers like Value Electronics, IIRC, although I think NPD does project from shipments and manufacturer and retailer supplied data.

IIRC NPD does their best market estimate of sales, not just collected data.

They are not just a pure census or survey like Nielson/Videoscan.

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post #4968 of 9375 Old 04-17-2007, 09:56 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by wnorris View Post

Haven't we seen estimates of 200k Bluray standalones before? Apparently all BD standalones combined have fewer than 100k units.

Never seen that figure. If it was so high it would have definitely been mentioned in some PR.

Quote:


I'm assuming this comes from the latest NPD report for March, which was due out this week I think (which would also mean it doesn't include sales figures from the Apr 1 price drop and the 5+4 BB and CC promotions).

NPD figures for consoles is coming on 19th. NPD usually releases numbers on the Thursday after the end of their month (not calendar).
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post #4969 of 9375 Old 04-17-2007, 09:56 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Sketcha View Post

It's been awhile.

One problem with bias is we tend not to view the evidence with complete impartiality. Of course, that's why we benefit from discourse.

It is more than a little bit difficult to judge player sales from Amazon rankings. The problem is, there is not just one player on each side. Blu-ray has a whole host of players. They could all be ranked well below the few that HD DVD has to offer, yet cumulatively outsell HD DVD.

This, BTW is another part of the BD strategy. Just more models in the stores, nearly all of which are big names.

With matching big price tags!
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post #4970 of 9375 Old 04-17-2007, 10:01 AM
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Grubert forgive me.

DVD Empire numbers for the week just went final for the week of April 10th ( I know you said preliminary numbers weren't worth anything)

Code:
Week     HD DVD   Blu-ray
Apr 10   50.66%   49.34% 
Apr 03   44.70%   55.30%

Mar 27   26.89%   73.11%
Mar 20   27.83%   72.17%
Mar 13   24.44%   75.56% 
Mar 06   38.11%   61.89%

Feb 27   50.00%   50.00%
That is the first time all year that HD DVD has lead in a final weekly number for that online retailers sales.

Leading indcator for Nielson/Videoscan?

http://www.dvdempire.com/Content/Fea...99365593062706

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post #4971 of 9375 Old 04-17-2007, 10:33 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Kosty View Post

It does not mention its from NPD.

If it was from NPD it might miss retailers like Value Electronics, IIRC, although I think NPD does project from shipments and manufacturer and retailer supplied data.

IIRC NPD does their best market estimate of sales, not just collected data.

They are not just a pure census or survey like Nielson/Videoscan.


Well to make the kind of statement that was made, one would need to know the number of HD-DVD standalones sold and the number of BD standalones sold. While Toshiba knows how many are manufactured, I think they would have to estimate sell through. Also, they would have no idea about BD numbers. So to me this implies that the data came from a 3rd party tracking service for the hardware. The only people I know who would track that sort of thing would be NPD, thus, I assume that is the source of the Promotions Group data.
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post #4972 of 9375 Old 04-17-2007, 10:45 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by nataraj View Post

Never seen that figure. If it was so high it would have definitely been mentioned in some PR.



NPD figures for consoles is coming on 19th. NPD usually releases numbers on the Thursday after the end of their month (not calendar).


The 200k number was tossed about in this very forum. It was speculation on the part of AVSr's. Basically, when Toshiba said that 175k (standalone, addon, pc drives) HD-DVD players had been sold at CES, and then NPD said BD has sold an equal number of standalones, the standalone figure was pegged at being 175k too. The same thing happened again not long ago when people were guessing at the number of addons + standalones through March. The same, BD has sold just as many standalones arguement came into play.

However, this statement from Toshiba seems to say:

Total BD drives to market: <100k standalones + pc drives + PS3's = ?
Total HD DVD drives to market: >100k standalones + pc drives + 360 addons = ?

To me, this indicates that BD and HD-DVD may be on very equal footing so far. HD-DVD leads in standalones. We don't know about PC drives, but globally, HD-DVD has the lead at a 7:3 for laptops, and lets assume BD has the lead for desktops, so we will call that roughly equal.

It all goes back to the PS3 vs. addon arguement. Only a portion of PS3's are used to play BD movies. 100% of addons are used to play HD-DVD's. So it seems this is where the hardware race gets decided. If only 25% of US PS3 hardware is used for BD, then that is 250k players or so. The Xbox 360 had like 80k players at the end of 2006, and maybe has 125-150k now. Add on a guesstimated 20k standalone lead for HD-DVD and you arrive at a guestimated difference of maybe 75k effective (actually used to play movies) hardware players.

Maybe Nielsen data is showing us the true difference in hardware. If BD owners who bought hardware for movie playback and HD-DVD owners who did the same have the same purchasing habits, maybe the 30k more disc sales seen by BD each month indicates there are 30k-60k more effective BD players on the market currently. If so, it seems logical that the two formats will reach parity soon, as HD-DVD standalone sales seem to be increasing in rate, while PS3 sales seem to be declining. So HD-DVD may be adding more effective players to the market each month, thus gaining back lost ground.
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post #4973 of 9375 Old 04-17-2007, 11:00 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Kosty View Post

I talked to someone who say the actual report. From what I heard at CES from people who attended a briefing from NPD.

The article clearly implied unit sales, I agree, Thats the way I read it too.

But it was possible the writer was mislead, and did not actually see the actual report or misinterpreted what was carefully told to them.

That report was based on the EOY data that was reported at CES. I have talked to 3 other people who saw that data who said it clearly showed that EOY standalone units sales were 2:1 in HD DVDs favor but sales revenues were about even because on average Blu-ray players cost twice as much. that would be a success in itself as double the price usually leads to less than half the sales.

I first heard the story of the NPD briefing at CES by some people I shared a cab with at CES.

As I said before YMMV. This is my opinion only, but its based on some concrete information. I have not found any other published reports to back my unsubstantiated claim.

It would not be te first time that a company mislead a reporter. I mean if someone told you HD players sales were about even 52% to 48% you might assume that meant unit sales, while the person telling you that could have known it meant revenues. I would not put it past a format backer to mislead someone in this manner.

And the reason why the HD DVD Alliance didn't correct the error was...

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post #4974 of 9375 Old 04-17-2007, 11:06 AM
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I was also reading some news on this years CeBit conference, and came across some tidbits I hadn't seen elsewhere. Forgive me if they were already discussed here.

My take from these comments is on worldwide sales too, not just US sales.

Quote:


HD-DVD slim PC drives are outselling BD drive 7:3.

The HD-DVD promotion group said that 40% of HD-DVD owners are buying 1 movie every week.

And here was the comment that got me:

Quote:


Microsoft's Jordi Ribas said that 2.5 million HD DVD players had been sold in 2006.

2.5 Million! How many PC drives and Xbox 360 addons have sold? I'm a HD-DVD supporter and even I have trouble believing that number. If true though, it must mean there is some area of the globe that has really embraced HD-DVD, since Toshiba said 175k players in NA for 2006.
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post #4975 of 9375 Old 04-17-2007, 12:55 PM - Thread Starter
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Perfect timing for this press release:

HD DVD First to Reach 100K CE Players Sold in the U.S.

We aren't given a specific date when that figure was met but that's something.

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post #4976 of 9375 Old 04-17-2007, 01:37 PM
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Sketcha View Post

It's been awhile.

One problem with bias is we tend not to view the evidence with complete impartiality. Of course, that's why we benefit from discourse.

It is more than a little bit difficult to judge player sales from Amazon rankings. The problem is, there is not just one player on each side. Blu-ray has a whole host of players. They could all be ranked well below the few that HD DVD has to offer, yet cumulatively outsell HD DVD.

This, BTW is another part of the BD strategy. Just more models in the stores, nearly all of which are big names.

Non-gaming CE devices

Amazon lists the following HD DVD Players (with rank):

Toshiba A-2 (109)
Toshiba XA-2 (146)
Toshiba A20 (653)
Toshiba A1 (16099)
Toshiba XA1 (20085)


and the following BD Players:

Sony BDP S-1 (1181)
Samsung BD P1000 (1382)
Philips BDP 9000 ( 5665)
Panasonic DMP BD 10 (13080)


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post #4977 of 9375 Old 04-17-2007, 01:39 PM
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Originally Posted by eecubed View Post

And the reason why the HD DVD Alliance didn't correct the error was...

The article was published and no big deal was made of it. The correct data was still showing low sales and HD DVD PRG did not want to make a big point of it. It wasn't asked in an interview question to an HD DVD source. There was going to be much stronger new in the future, HD A2s still were in short supply and just arriving to market. Hardware parity to Blu-ray was seen as an OK idea, and not worth complicating. There was no major reactio nto the article.

In short, little upside to the correction, as it was clear that it would sound futile in the face of Blu-ray at the time mounting disc sales lead.

Sometimes its just better to let somethings go.

Tosiba and the HD DVD aren't using a crisis room PR strategy to respond to innacuracies. They are just confidently and steadily letting facts on the ground speak for themselves and choosing strategic times to release summary data.

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post #4978 of 9375 Old 04-17-2007, 02:51 PM
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Originally Posted by Kosty View Post

Grubert forgive me.

DVD Empire numbers for the week just went final for the week of April 10th ( I know you said preliminary numbers weren't worth anything)

Code:
Week     HD DVD   Blu-ray
Apr 10   50.66%   49.34% 
Apr 03   44.70%   55.30%

Mar 27   26.89%   73.11%
Mar 20   27.83%   72.17%
Mar 13   24.44%   75.56% 
Mar 06   38.11%   61.89%

Feb 27   50.00%   50.00%
That is the first time all year that HD DVD has lead in a final weekly number for that online retailers sales.

Leading indcator for Nielson/Videoscan?

http://www.dvdempire.com/Content/Fea...99365593062706

yep, looks like some HD DVD buyers went onto DVD Empire by mistake on Sunday. Shame, they could have got Planet Earth to #1!

At least DVD Empire only report actual sales so it's a more credible performance - but is it just a blip?
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post #4979 of 9375 Old 04-17-2007, 02:54 PM
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Originally Posted by fozziwig View Post

yep, looks like some HD DVD buyers went onto DVD Empire by mistake on Sunday. Shame, they could have got Planet Earth to #1!

Except Sunday was 15th and reported sales data is for 10th
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post #4980 of 9375 Old 04-17-2007, 03:21 PM
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Originally Posted by WayneL View Post

The vast majority of PS3's were and will be bought by gamers, and BD sales to them drop when the novelty falls off. So any advantage in sales to PS3 drops off with time.

That really should have been stated as a personal opinion since I have never seen any evidence that is true. In fact call me skeptical that those who have an HDTV and bought a good looking Blu-ray movie will over time become uninterested in Blu-ray.
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