Nielsen/VideoScan sales ratios and Top 5 - Page 169 - AVS Forum
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post #5041 of 9375 Old 04-18-2007, 10:41 AM
 
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Originally Posted by Grubert View Post

That's the consensus. A Paramount analyst said only about 22% of PS3 owners buy BD movies regularly.

If that trend continues (and is accurate) that will be VERY significant.
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post #5042 of 9375 Old 04-18-2007, 11:09 AM
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Originally Posted by SteroMAdMAn View Post

As I was reading the 100k release and then seeing some supporters and nay sayers say it is insignificant, I was kind of shocked.

The worrying part (for both formats) is not the 100K, but the comparison with their 2006 data which suggested that they sold in 2006 about 80 to 85K units (ie 175 minus 92 and then rounding up a bit). That would imply that they sold only some 20K players in the first 3 months of 2007!

That would be worrying numbers in terms of take-up of the format (actually for both formats), though it may explain why they have been cutting prices so unusually aggressively.

Actually, even is Kosty is right and they lowballed this to give the impression of huge growth later on, 70K units in 3 months would still be abominal if you hope to sell more than a million over the whole year.
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post #5043 of 9375 Old 04-18-2007, 11:14 AM
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All the Blu-Ray companies combined only sold 20K standalone players in the whole of 2006, 20K by a single company in the 1st 3 months was pretty good.
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post #5044 of 9375 Old 04-18-2007, 11:33 AM
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Originally Posted by Grubert View Post

That's the consensus. A Paramount analyst said only about 22% of PS3 owners buy BD movies regularly.

I wonder what that means. Does that mean the avg attach rates for PS3 is some 1/5th of the avg attach rates for stand alone ?
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post #5045 of 9375 Old 04-18-2007, 11:41 AM
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Originally Posted by JeffY View Post

All the Blu-Ray companies combined only sold 20K standalone players in the whole of 2006, 20K by a single company in the 1st 3 months was pretty good.

I'm obviously looking at the trend, which is why I said it was bad news for both.

It means that their average monthly sales decreased from 2006 to 2007.
(And yes, I'm aware that 2006 includes the holidays. But I'm also aware that prices were cut dramatically in 2007.)
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post #5046 of 9375 Old 04-18-2007, 11:46 AM
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Nataraj,

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I wonder what that means. Does that mean the avg attach rates for PS3 is some 1/5th of the avg attach rates for stand alone

What the 22% figure means is that this number is to be treated as if they ARE standalones, and the rest are to be ignored because they are game machines. So, if there are 1 million ps3's it means that for all intents and purposes, those 1 million units translates into 220K standalone BD players. Thus, those 220K are to be included in calculating attach rates, not 1 million.
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post #5047 of 9375 Old 04-18-2007, 11:48 AM
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Originally Posted by nataraj View Post

I wonder what that means. Does that mean the avg attach rates for PS3 is some 1/5th of the avg attach rates for stand alone ?

I guess that actually means that they (at most) might have done a survey and that only 22% said that they were planning to regularly buy (or had regularly bought) movies.
Given how little information there is on all sales, it is difficult to imagine that a Paramount consultant (let alone Paramount itself) would have some real and realistic data on attach rates for either standalones or PS3/Xbox add-on. To me it seems the guy made a rough guesstimate that coincidentally 'happened' to give equivalent numbers for both formats. From a consultant for a neutral studio who does not want to be out of a job too quickly, that is not unexpected
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post #5048 of 9375 Old 04-18-2007, 12:00 PM
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Originally Posted by Nescio View Post

I guess that actually means that they (at most) might have done a survey and that only 22% said that they were planning to regularly buy (or had regularly bought) movies.
Given how little information there is on all sales, it is difficult to imagine that a Paramount consultant (let alone Paramount itself) would have some real and realistic data on attach rates for either standalones or PS3/Xbox add-on. To me it seems the guy made a rough guesstimate that coincidentally 'happened' to give equivalent numbers for both formats. From a consultant for a neutral studio who does not want to be out of a job too quickly, that is not unexpected

I'd think so too. Any kind of attach rates is a moving target now - even if we have sales data for movies and players.
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post #5049 of 9375 Old 04-18-2007, 12:05 PM
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Originally Posted by SteroMAdMAn View Post

Or maybe sales have dropped keeping stock high?

Nah, couldn't be

Look at the shape of that curve, especially the 24 hour stock. There have been dips and resuppy --- meaning stock is moving.

Mind you, the sales numbers on amazon are a lot smaller than I originally thought. I tried to keep track of the change in stock every 24 hours and have been surprised at what the arithmetic tells me in terms of 24 hour unit sales per title for each position in the amazon ranking. I believe I saw about 400 disks a day for CR and that was when CR was around #007 for a few days post release!

These people organizing these hd dvd and BD amazon buys must be paid by amazon.
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post #5050 of 9375 Old 04-18-2007, 12:07 PM
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Originally Posted by Grubert View Post

Actually it did:


Someone may have said that elsewhere (I haven't seen an article or release though). But from the TG Daily article where I originally mention this several posts back...

Quote:


...with 40% of HD-DVD owners buying a new movie every week.

No mention of the US in there anywhere.
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post #5051 of 9375 Old 04-18-2007, 12:19 PM
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Originally Posted by Neo1965 View Post

I believe I saw about 400 disks a day for CR and that was when CR was around #007 for a few days post release!

Considering Nielsen reported 28K total sales for Amazon in the first week, let us assume subsequent weeks it was 10K per week. You don't say when exactly this was - so let me assume after the first week.

So, 400 a day would indicate about 30% market share for Amazon - something I'd doubt.

Some people have speculated, looking at Amazon stock that sudden drops and replinishments might be stock moving from one warehouse to another i.e. not really sales.


Quote:


These people organizing these hd dvd and BD amazon buys must be paid by amazon.

To use a slashdot concept - this is like soviet union. The shop pays you money if you buy from them
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post #5052 of 9375 Old 04-18-2007, 12:22 PM
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Originally Posted by Grubert View Post

Wrong again. http://www.360-gamer.com/news.asp?id=226

I am interested in your own estimate. How many add-ons you think have been sold to date in the US?

Sorry, you are wrong. NPD tracks US and Canadian sales, while Nielsen does not track Canadian disc sales.

From other reports...

Quote:


NPD reports that since the November launch of the HD-DVD add-on for the Xbox 360, the add-on has sold 92,000 units in North America as of the end of December 2006.

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post #5053 of 9375 Old 04-18-2007, 12:28 PM
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Originally Posted by bboisvert View Post

Well, there were about 30 HD DVD titles released from Jan-Mar this year, so while you had no releases to buy, I don't think it's safe to assume that this was the case for everyone.

I bought Clerks II, The Sting, The Departed, Bullitt... others picked up Brokeback, Black Rain, Slevin, Poseidon, Mummy Returns, Babel.


While there may have been fewer titles than people hoped for, it wasn't like *nothing* came out during this time. I don't think you can make many assumptions with the figures based on a lighter release schedule.

I just looked up the release #'s for each since Jan 1 through Apr 17th (high-def digest)

BD=82 titles
HD-DVD 37 titles

That means BD got 69% of the HD releases so far for 2007. No matter how you spin the numbers HD-DVD is holding on quite well for having a few hundred thousand players out there vs. millions of PS3's. Given the touted 2:1 sales of BD over HD-DVD isn't all that impressive when you have nearly 70% of the releases and millions more players in homes. Now that HD-DVD actually has movies coming out in the coming months, I think you will see BD maintain a lead but HD-DVD even with the fraction of players out there will stay relatively close. I think a 2:1 sales margin for BD isn't a bad thing for HD-DVD given the current market. The PS3 market is mostly saturated now with the major launches done.

It will be quite interesting to see how this year shapes up for each. Either way, we aren't getting rid of either one of them any time soon.
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post #5054 of 9375 Old 04-18-2007, 12:29 PM
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Originally Posted by Nescio View Post

The worrying part (for both formats) is not the 100K, but the comparison with their 2006 data which suggested that they sold in 2006 about 80 to 85K units (ie 175 minus 92 and then rounding up a bit). That would imply that they sold only some 20K players in the first 3 months of 2007!

That would be worrying numbers in terms of take-up of the format (actually for both formats), though it may explain why they have been cutting prices so unusually aggressively.

Actually, even is Kosty is right and they lowballed this to give the impression of huge growth later on, 70K units in 3 months would still be abominal if you hope to sell more than a million over the whole year.

Not really. In DVD's second year, it sold 8X as many players in December, as it did in January. So if it is 20k units or so, and it follows the DVD trend, that would be 160k units sold in Decemeber.

DVD basically sold the same for the first three months of its second year, slowly started to ramp up, and then sales exploded starting in June. I see the same trend occuring here.
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post #5055 of 9375 Old 04-18-2007, 12:31 PM
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Originally Posted by nataraj View Post

Considering Nielsen reported 28K total sales for Amazon in the first week, let us assume subsequent weeks it was 10K per week. You don't say when exactly this was - so let me assume after the first week.

So, 400 a day would indicate about 30% market share for Amazon - something I'd doubt.

Some people have speculated, looking at Amazon stock that sudden drops and replinishments might be stock moving from one warehouse to another i.e. not really sales.




To use a slashdot concept - this is like soviet union. The shop pays you money if you buy from them

That's the few days after release, and the rank was bouncing around 5-9 those few days. Something like 2000 CR disks was sold by amazon that week.

The 400 number is to show how few disks amazon sells, not how well CR sold. Nielsen numbers are POS, meaning 28K was from participating stores. As for what is the multiplier to get the actual total sales number, your guess is as good as mine. Note there's a lot of Walmarts, and from what I remember, each store that have HDM shelves, carried at least 6 CR disks.

As for the stock in amazon, I don't have an idea how they work either, but it does look on the surface that the dips correspond to the few well selling titles. There's very few titles that carry the bulk of that stock total, and even tracking them using the ALL HD or ALL BD option every 24 hours gives an approximate correlation in the unit sales with placement. (very few disks are sold daily in total, so it's easy to track.

Barring new inventory, of course. Happy Feet stock is a nice one to track.
---
nataraj, how many 360 addons include the KingKong disk? Was it 150K or 250K?
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post #5056 of 9375 Old 04-18-2007, 12:52 PM
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Originally Posted by wnorris View Post

Not really. In DVD's second year, it sold 8X as many players in December, as it did in January. So if it is 20k units or so, and it follows the DVD trend, that would be 160k units sold in Decemeber.

DVD basically sold the same for the first three months of its second year, slowly started to ramp up, and then sales exploded starting in June. I see the same trend occuring here.

But the 20K were for 3 months, not per month!

So that cuts your estimate to 50-60K for December. So if they do half of that per month between now and then (given that holidays are really a peak, that is even a conservative estimate), then we have some 300K players for 2007. That is way below anyone's estimate for the year.
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post #5057 of 9375 Old 04-18-2007, 12:56 PM
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Originally Posted by Neo1965 View Post

The 400 number is to show how few disks amazon sells, not how well CR sold.

I understand that. I was just commenting that the number is probably lower than that ...

Quote:


As for the stock in amazon, I don't have an idea how they work either, but it does look on the surface that the dips correspond to the few well selling titles.

We don't know - Amazon has had some strange stock movements.

Quote:


nataraj, how many 360 addons include the KingKong disk? Was it 150K or 250K?

Unfortunately, this is the kind of question where either I wouldn't know or if I knew I wouldn't be able to tell. AFAIK, there is no public information.
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post #5058 of 9375 Old 04-18-2007, 01:09 PM - Thread Starter
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Originally Posted by wnorris View Post

Sorry, you are wrong. NPD tracks US and Canadian sales, while Nielsen does not track Canadian disc sales.

Just because they track US and Canadian sales doesn't mean they can't disaggregate US and Canadian sales.

Just another example, this time from Variety (Nov. 16):

Quote:


According to industry tracker NPD Group, Sony sold 197,000 PlayStation 3's in the U.S. in November, following the console's Nov. 17 launch.

Microsoft, meanwhile, sold 42,000 units of its new HD-DVD player add-on for the Xbox 360 in the U.S. last month.

And another:

Quote:


Microsoft's HD DVD peripheral landed in 92,000 US homes since it was launched in November, but comparing its success to that of Sony's competing Blu-Ray is tough. Researchers at the NPD group tallied all sales for the add-on over the last two months of 2006.

The only figure specifically pertaining to "North America" is the 175,000 total players in 2006. To correct that, as Canada population is about one tenth that of the US, we can have an estimate that it was 158,000 for the US and 17,000 for Canada.

That would give 66,000 standalone HD DVD players for the US in 2006.

The 100,000 standalone players figures is also for the US. That would yield 34,000 players sold in 2007 for the US.

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post #5059 of 9375 Old 04-18-2007, 01:11 PM - Thread Starter
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Originally Posted by nataraj View Post

Unfortunately, this is the kind of question where either I wouldn't know or if I knew I wouldn't be able to tell. AFAIK, there is no public information.

Correct. When the inclusion of KK was announced, the only information was "for a limited time". That timespan was not specified BTW.

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post #5060 of 9375 Old 04-18-2007, 01:26 PM
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Originally Posted by nataraj View Post

Unfortunately, this is the kind of question where either I wouldn't know or if I knew I wouldn't be able to tell. AFAIK, there is no public information.

I think it was announced way back --- some time limited promotion first X buyers get a free KK disk. And for a while the drives showed up and disappeared quickly, but now, they just sit there stacked up in piles. And I'm surprised they still have the KK sticker.
---

This is what disney had in their HMM ad for blu-ray.
http://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/ques...hp?startpage=4

Their estimate was for 2.5M HD DVD players by end of 2007. 8.5M for BD (probably mostly PS3s).

I doubt either numbers will be met unless some miracle $50 player shows up.
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post #5061 of 9375 Old 04-18-2007, 04:39 PM
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Originally Posted by nataraj View Post

Considering Nielsen reported 28K total sales for Amazon in the first week, let us assume subsequent weeks it was 10K per week. You don't say when exactly this was - so let me assume after the first week.

So, 400 a day would indicate about 30% market share for Amazon - something I'd doubt.

I think that is probably too high for weeks after the first week, but Amazon could skew toward higher for the first week because they accept preorders. My best guess from looking at the rankings and stock numbers for CR (while being careful to avoid the big drops and spikes that I don't think indicate sales) is that Amazon sold about 2k during the first 7 days and had preorders in the range of 4k. That would make it 21% or so of the first week, but mostly because of preorders. The 4k is definitely a guess with a large margin of error though.

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post #5062 of 9375 Old 04-18-2007, 04:42 PM
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Originally Posted by Nescio View Post

The worrying part (for both formats) is not the 100K, but the comparison with their 2006 data which suggested that they sold in 2006 about 80 to 85K units (ie 175 minus 92 and then rounding up a bit). That would imply that they sold only some 20K players in the first 3 months of 2007!

Based on a few different things (like the head of Toshiba of America saying 60k for standalones for 2006 and bkilian of Microsoft saying something about the NPD or Nielsen numbers being low for the add-on), I think it is reasonably likely that the 175k+ number from Toshiba assumed more XBOX360 add-ons than the 92k that were announced. I don't remember when that number was published, but seems like it might have been after the 175k+ number was given.

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post #5063 of 9375 Old 04-18-2007, 05:23 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by SteroMAdMAn View Post

Comparing the # of total units of playback devices sold to the total # of software unit sales and I think its pretty clear that HD is doing better.

Of course it is. I thought people understood how the different approaches would affect things long ago. Sony went with a strategy that should result in lower attach rates, but likely higher sales overall (which is the real goal). Microsoft went with a strategy that made sure that it doesn't count game system owners who don't specifically spend money to get the HD movie player part. That should mean higher attach rate, even if lower software sales. I hope HD DVD fans aren't ignorant enough to think that Microsoft stepping up and putting an HD DVD drive in every XBOX360 would have been bad for HD DVD, since it would likely result in lower attach rates. Would any HD DVD fan here be upset if Microsoft sent a free add-on drive to every XBOXLive customer, since it would likely lower attach rates?

Maybe some of us should have discussed this clearly before the formats even launched (over a year ago), as we had enough information to know that HD DVD's approach should lead to a higher attach rate, even if less movies sold. I figured people understood that when some of us said things like that if PS3s sold BDs at a rate to count as 15-20% of regular standalones that it would be significant, that it had to do with this issue. Maybe if we had discussed it more clearly at that time more people would have understood it, as it almost seems like people are going with ignorance on this subject because it helps the side they are rooting for to look better. I still haven't had anybody who thinks that attach rate is the most important factor explain why RCA dropped their CED format and basically admitted defeat to VHS years ago when CED had good attach rates. CED didn't sell as many players as expected and looks like it didn't get much beyond a core of enthusiastic buyers, which is a major problem, even though it can help attach rates.

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post #5064 of 9375 Old 04-18-2007, 05:27 PM
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The worrying part (for both formats) is not the 100K, but the comparison with their 2006 data which suggested that they sold in 2006 about 80 to 85K units (ie 175 minus 92 and then rounding up a bit). That would imply that they sold only some 20K players in the first 3 months of 2007!

I think (from what Toshiba said) that it was closer to 60k last year
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post #5065 of 9375 Old 04-18-2007, 05:41 PM
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Their estimate was for 2.5M HD DVD players by end of 2007. 8.5M for BD (probably mostly PS3s).

I doubt either numbers will be met unless some miracle $50 player shows up.

well BD is almost 1/2 way there, so I think the 8.5 is credible I would guess HD DVD is <1/5 so it needs some serious catch up
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post #5066 of 9375 Old 04-18-2007, 05:43 PM
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PS maybe we should start a different thread on player sales, this is the VS thread after all
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post #5067 of 9375 Old 04-18-2007, 06:19 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Nescio View Post

But the 20K were for 3 months, not per month!

So that cuts your estimate to 50-60K for December. So if they do half of that per month between now and then (given that holidays are really a peak, that is even a conservative estimate), then we have some 300K players for 2007. That is way below anyone's estimate for the year.


No, in your previous statement you said what if Toshiba lowballed their press release and the number YTD was 70k, which would be over 20k a month, not for all year.
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post #5068 of 9375 Old 04-18-2007, 06:24 PM
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Originally Posted by Grubert View Post

Correct. When the inclusion of KK was announced, the only information was "for a limited time". That timespan was not specified BTW.

My understanding that it was going to be included until the drive went into mass production. This was supposed to have happened this month, I believe, but is being held up.

So all drives to date will have had KK. I think the rumored addon price drop is a result of going into mass production. Likely what will happen is that once it is mass produced, the price will drop to $150, but you will no longer get the free disc, and maybe not even the remote...
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post #5069 of 9375 Old 04-18-2007, 06:40 PM
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No, in your previous statement you said what if Toshiba lowballed their press release and the number YTD was 70k, which would be over 20k a month, not for all year.

that is not what he said at all.

He said ~175k devices reported for last year ~92k of those are add-ons 175 - 92 ~80 HD DVD players last year

100k-80k=20k we are April that gives 20k/3 per month
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post #5070 of 9375 Old 04-18-2007, 07:28 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by wnorris View Post

My understanding that it was going to be included until the drive went into mass production. This was supposed to have happened this month, I believe, but is being held up.

So all drives to date will have had KK. I think the rumored addon price drop is a result of going into mass production. Likely what will happen is that once it is mass produced, the price will drop to $150, but you will no longer get the free disc, and maybe not even the remote...

I'd consider the above info completely your opinion - with no basis in any real plans.
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