Nielsen/VideoScan sales ratios and Top 5 - Page 17 - AVS Forum
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post #481 of 9375 Old 02-01-2007, 06:29 PM
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Originally Posted by Mark Zimmer View Post

Circuit City refuses to carry Toshiba products due to some long-ago grudge that I don't understand, so no you're not going to see much in the way of HD DVD there.

Not true anymore. There in my local Circuit CIty right now. They also now have them on their online store.

Issue was resolved before the HD A2s shipped. Toshiba is buying endcap space in selected markets now.

http://www.circuitcity.com/ccd/Searc...go.x=18&go.y=5

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post #482 of 9375 Old 02-01-2007, 06:32 PM
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Originally Posted by jmpage2 View Post

Circuit City sells HD-DVD movies AND the HDA2 player, where the heck have you been?

Where have I been? Actually in the stores seeing what really goes on.

Not in any of the three Circuit City stores that I have been in recently. They all have Blu-ray players and BD disks but no HD DVD to be seen.

That is partially my point: I am sure that stores have official policies, and equally sure that they are violated at the local level.

Here is an interesting story: I heard a commercial on the radio yesterday saying that Toshiba was running a Super Bowl special: buy a Toshiba HDTV, get an HD DVD player for $200. The commercial mentioned Fry's as a place to go.

So I went to Fry's to check it out. They had a close-out Toshiba A1 in the sales rack, and I found an A2 on a shelf (no price or display). I then asked an employee about this special: they had never heard of it.

There were however 3 Blu-ray players actually set up and running: Sony, Philips, and Samsung.

Since the special runs through Sunday, they had better get cracking.
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post #483 of 9375 Old 02-01-2007, 06:33 PM
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Again, this doesn't make sense. Profit margin on the PS3 is zero. HD-DVD players actually make retailers a lot more money than the BR players that are actually selling today (PS3). Additionally what you are providing is anecdotal evidence, many members have also indicated that they are hearing HD-DVD ads and seeing fresh HD-DVD displays in stores. Why do that if the format is dead?

Real good point. Retailers make zip on the PS3. If that's the only Blu-ray player selling, they have an incentive to push HD DVD players that they make a profit on.

One reason you had such an anti HD DVD bias last year was that there no HD DVD players in inventory to sell. Retailers were trying to sell what they had to sell with the Samsung.

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post #484 of 9375 Old 02-01-2007, 06:37 PM
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Originally Posted by rlsmith View Post

Where have I been? Actually in the stores seeing what really goes on.

Not in any of the three Circuit City stores that I have been in recently. They all have Blu-ray players and BD disks but no HD DVD to be seen.

That is partially my point: I am sure that stores have official policies, and equally sure that they are violated at the local level.

Now you are flat out being silly so I'm going to have to call you on it.. Local stores violating CCs policy? The A2 is right on their website;

http://www.circuitcity.com/ssm/Toshi...oductDetail.do

Just because you haven't personally seen them in your .01% demographic area doesn't mean they aren't selling them.
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post #485 of 9375 Old 02-01-2007, 06:38 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by rlsmith View Post

Where have I been? Actually in the stores seeing what really goes on.

Not in any of the three Circuit City stores that I have been in recently. They all have Blu-ray players and BD disks but no HD DVD to be seen.

That is partially my point: I am sure that stores have official policies, and equally sure that they are violated at the local level.

Here is an interesting story: I heard a commercial on the radio yesterday saying that Toshiba was running a Super Bowl special: buy a Toshiba HDTV, get an HD DVD player for $200. The commercial mentioned Fry's as a place to go.

So I went to Fry's to check it out. They had a close-out Toshiba A1 in the sales rack, and I found an A2 on a shelf (no price or display). I then asked an employee about this special: they had never heard of it.

There were however 3 Blu-ray players actually set up and running: Sony, Philips, and Samsung.

Since the special runs through Sunday, they had better get cracking.

One of the issues is that the HD A2 is literally still being distributed nationwide form their initial shipments. Its 2-3 weeks by boat from manufacture travel customs and truck to distribution in every nook and cranny in the USA. Plus if sales are good , there may be local shortages until follow on inventory arrives.

If of course your retailer only had one left on the shelf and none in the back, the logical assumption is they sold the rest of their initial shipment.

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post #486 of 9375 Old 02-01-2007, 06:47 PM
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Originally Posted by skogan View Post

That's like saying "if Pepsi and Coke had their way, there would be no cola war."
Do you think that MS is going to stop selling the add-ons? That Toshiba will stop making HD DVD players? WB, Universal, Weinstiens, etc. are going to suddenly stop supporting HD DVD?

You've twice now made predictions like this. First you said that you believe retailers and the studios are ready to take the matter into their own hands and virtually declare a winner. Now this. I ask, please be more specific - just what are you predicting will happen and when do you think it will happen? And as importantly, what do base this on?

I think if you look back at the predictions I made (most recently after CES in an article that I wrote), you will find that the recent Videoscan news is very compatible with some of the things I suggested would happen.

Since you ask for specific predictions, let me put on my turbin and see what I can come up with.

I predict that by summer (specifically by VSDA) the format war will be looking a lot different.
-- Sales will be way up for Blu-ray, continuing their current trend.
-- Weinstein will start Blu-ray support. [Harvey Weinstein can smell a dollar in the next state, he will not miss this opportunity.] This has only psychological impact of course since Weinstein has few titles.
-- There will be pressure on Universal to use THD (effectively going neutral).

I further predict that by CES 2008 the matter will be resolved.
-- All studios will be supporting Blu-ray, and only legacy support for HD DVD will be happening. Studios that supported HD DVD will continue for the present but the handwriting will be on the wall.
-- Toshiba will announce combo players or outright Blu-ray players.
-- HDTV sales will be much higher than currently expected.
-- Blu-ray sales will be much higher than expected with a clear path to adoption of Blu-ray as the successor to DVD.
-- Meridian will announce a high-end Blu-ray player (with no mention of their ostensible HD DVD player).

I wish I could add universal peace and an end to global warming but this is the best I can do.

I base this on the following:
-- CE, retailer, and studio support for Blu-ray, coupled with a strong desire to end the format war
-- Current and projected title announcements
-- Current player announcements
-- Most of all, current sales trends.

[I don't really know that this will happen. But you asked for specifics, so I am willing to go with this and eat crow accordingly. I am sure your predictions are as likely to come true as mine are BTW.]
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post #487 of 9375 Old 02-01-2007, 06:52 PM
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WRT this issue about retailers: it has been claimed in many posts from HD DVD supporters (do a search) that many retailers are showing a preference to marketing Blu-ray. There are probably multiple reasons for this. One article on this is posted at the projectorcentral.com web site for example.

I am suggesting that retailers may be trying to force a conclusion to what they see as a disastrous format war by picking the format that they feel they can market more effectively and profitably.

I am sorry that my comments were taken as controversial, I thought many people believed that this was happening.

I am sorry I am going to have to bail on this thread. Very interesting discussion, thanks. But I need to get back to work to be able to afford these toys.
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post #488 of 9375 Old 02-01-2007, 07:05 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by skogan View Post

But the question wasn't "when will we know a winner", it was "what will happen when a format announces it's death". Losing the format war isn't necessarily the same things as having the format die.

It will be easier to declare a winner then it will to find out when one is dead, because it may make economic sense to keep producing in the 2nd place format. The install base of 360 add ons or PS3's may be large enough that people will still try to hit that market, even if it isn't supported as widely as the other format. So the losing format could, and probably will, live a long time after it's clearly the loser.

So I agree with you that we should find a time or event when we can declare a "winner", but I don't think that will be the same thing as being able to pinpoint the time of death for the loser.

UMD discs sale pretty poorly, but Sony keeps cranking those out. Even if HD-DVD ends up with the small slice of pie, discs will still be made as long as people buy them. I think people need to come to terms with the possibility of a tie, and all studios being neutral in 3 years. I think it is very possible.
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post #489 of 9375 Old 02-01-2007, 07:10 PM
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Originally Posted by rlsmith View Post

Since you ask for specific predictions, let me put on my turbin and see what I can come up with.

I predict that by summer (specifically by VSDA) the format war will be looking a lot different.
-- Sales will be way up for Blu-ray, continuing their current trend.
-- Weinstein will start Blu-ray support. [Harvey Weinstein can smell a dollar in the next state, he will not miss this opportunity.] This has only psychological impact of course since Weinstein has few titles.
-- There will be pressure on Universal to use THD (effectively going neutral).

Those predictions are as controversial as your original claim; which was that retailers and the studios are ready to take the matter into their own hands and virtually declare a winner.

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Originally Posted by rlsmith View Post

[I don't really know that this will happen. But you asked for specifics, so I am willing to go with this and eat crow accordingly. I am sure your predictions are as likely to come true as mine are BTW.]

But in my predictions, I try to say "it may" happen, or some other qualifier to connote to the reader that I realize I could well be wrong. While in this post, you appropriately show that you are just guessing, your earlier posts were pretty declarative.

Regardless of the above, you did make your points well, even if I disagree with the certainty with which you made your predictions.

Have a nice evening.
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post #490 of 9375 Old 02-01-2007, 07:13 PM
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Originally Posted by Sketcha View Post

I thought that Meridian announcement was false. No?

No the owner of Meridian confirmed it was true, twice. It was just some marketing guy for Meridian didn't know what was going on at his own company an dmade an error by denying it.
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post #491 of 9375 Old 02-01-2007, 07:15 PM
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Originally Posted by raaj View Post

Can anyone tell me if the sales numbers also count the BD and HD-DVD discs bundled with the PS3 and Xbox360 add-on to be individual sales or are they disregarded?

No, the freebie discs are not included. Videoscan works by tracking point-of-sale data (barcode scans). Bundled discs do not get counted.
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post #492 of 9375 Old 02-01-2007, 07:20 PM
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Originally Posted by majortom View Post

You are wrong. They get it from Wal*Mart and from major web merchants (including Amazon). Check their website.

From everything that came up when I searched, they don't cover amazon or walmart (or even target or toys-r-us). The following is what NPD says - this I posted sometime back in the General discussion thread.

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NPD receives data representing about two-thirds of U.S. retail sales and makes projections for the remainder of the market based on a sampling of consumers.

If you have links to prove your point let us have it. I can post numerous links where people are saying NPD doesn't cover the big retailers or e-tailers.
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post #493 of 9375 Old 02-01-2007, 07:21 PM
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Originally Posted by Mark Zimmer View Post

Circuit City refuses to carry Toshiba products due to some long-ago grudge that I don't understand, so no you're not going to see much in the way of HD DVD there.

I checked a nearby CC this weekend and they did have Toshiba HD-DVD. Stupidly enough though, I could find no HD-DVD discs.

A month ago, I asked if they had any HD-DVD's. The sales guy said they only carried Blu-ray and would never carry HD-DVD, because BD was superior in every way. Oops!
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post #494 of 9375 Old 02-01-2007, 07:23 PM
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Originally Posted by rlsmith View Post

I am suggesting that retailers may be trying to force a conclusion to what they see as a disastrous format war by picking the format that they feel they can market more effectively and profitably.

Disastrous for whom ?

But for the format war all you guys would have had are 5E type of "beyond HD" PQ to "enjoy"
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post #495 of 9375 Old 02-01-2007, 07:29 PM
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Originally Posted by rlsmith View Post

I think if you look back at the predictions I made (most recently after CES in an article that I wrote), you will find that the recent Videoscan news is very compatible with some of the things I suggested would happen.

Since you ask for specific predictions, let me put on my turbin and see what I can come up with.

I predict that by summer (specifically by VSDA) the format war will be looking a lot different.
-- Sales will be way up for Blu-ray, continuing their current trend.
-- Weinstein will start Blu-ray support. [Harvey Weinstein can smell a dollar in the next state, he will not miss this opportunity.] This has only psychological impact of course since Weinstein has few titles.
-- There will be pressure on Universal to use THD (effectively going neutral).

I further predict that by CES 2008 the matter will be resolved.
-- All studios will be supporting Blu-ray, and only legacy support for HD DVD will be happening. Studios that supported HD DVD will continue for the present but the handwriting will be on the wall.
-- Toshiba will announce combo players or outright Blu-ray players.
-- HDTV sales will be much higher than currently expected.
-- Blu-ray sales will be much higher than expected with a clear path to adoption of Blu-ray as the successor to DVD.
-- Meridian will announce a high-end Blu-ray player (with no mention of their ostensible HD DVD player).

I wish I could add universal peace and an end to global warming but this is the best I can do.

I base this on the following:
-- CE, retailer, and studio support for Blu-ray, coupled with a strong desire to end the format war
-- Current and projected title announcements
-- Current player announcements
-- Most of all, current sales trends.

[I don't really know that this will happen. But you asked for specifics, so I am willing to go with this and eat crow accordingly. I am sure your predictions are as likely to come true as mine are BTW.]

A few of my own Carnac predictions...

1) Warner not finding any other willing victims for their Total HD discs wiil produce 4 titles that are greeted by howls of complaints by both sides "being forced to pay for that other disc "

2) Paramount after going through the pains of BD and HD-DVD combo disc production for the most of 2007 announce in October they are dropping HD-DVD for "the low cost solution of Blu-Ray".

3) Toshiba announces at CES 2008 three new Blu-Ray/HD-DVD combo players to "fill the gap" for HD-DVD supporters. The new players will also support the new 51GB TL discs that replace the older 30GB DL format that is being abandoned. Warner at the same time anounces "Total HD+" which is a 51GB/50GB HD combo flipper disc aimed to reduce retailer and consumer confusion about the new HD formats.

b2b

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post #496 of 9375 Old 02-01-2007, 07:29 PM
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Originally Posted by jmpage2 View Post

Now you are flat out being silly so I'm going to have to call you on it.. Local stores violating CCs policy? The A2 is right on their website;

http://www.circuitcity.com/ssm/Toshi...oductDetail.do

Just because you haven't personally seen them in your .01% demographic area doesn't mean they aren't selling them.

I think he must not have been in CC recently as claimed. Check the 94301 zip code on CC and you will see ALL THREE stores in his area have them instock and instore.
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post #497 of 9375 Old 02-01-2007, 07:44 PM
 
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It's amazing how much we can predict based on 2 weeks of sales data. I'm sure at some point UMD was looking like the portable media for the future with super fantastic short term trends....

Kinda like when we expected the war in Iraq to end after a few weeks of fighting.
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post #498 of 9375 Old 02-01-2007, 08:55 PM
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It's not that we just have two weeks of sales data increase. It's the fact that it went from 3:1 HD-DVD's favor to 2:1 Blu-rays favor in a very short period of time. It's an interesting fact if nothing else. However, it is a little early to be shouting winner from the mountain tops. I still see Christmas 2007 as the defining moment for both formats.
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post #499 of 9375 Old 02-01-2007, 09:03 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by wnorris View Post

UMD discs sale pretty poorly, but Sony keeps cranking those out.

Haven't you heard about what's called "install base"? There are 10 million PSPs around after all. That's a very, very different situation from that of HD DVD.
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post #500 of 9375 Old 02-01-2007, 09:04 PM
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Originally Posted by wnorris View Post

No the owner of Meridian confirmed it was true, twice. It was just some marketing guy for Meridian didn't know what was going on at his own company an dmade an error by denying it.

Aahaa
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post #501 of 9375 Old 02-01-2007, 09:06 PM
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Originally Posted by wnorris View Post

I checked a nearby CC this weekend and they did have Toshiba HD-DVD. Stupidly enough though, I could find no HD-DVD discs.

A month ago, I asked if they had any HD-DVD's. The sales guy said they only carried Blu-ray and would never carry HD-DVD, because BD was superior in every way. Oops!

Good lackies are so hard to find these days. Give that kid a raise!
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post #502 of 9375 Old 02-01-2007, 09:22 PM
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The sales figures don't figure into discerning a winner at this time in my estimation, but the movies coming out do:

http://bluray.highdefdigest.com/releasedates.html
http://hddvd.highdefdigest.com/releasedates.html

It is not even close IMO. I don't own either. If/when I do buy it will be Blu Ray because there are more exclusive movies that I want. Both in announced titles and in the back catalogues.

If there is a must have Universal title, I will settle for DVD.
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post #503 of 9375 Old 02-01-2007, 09:30 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by plazman View Post

It's amazing how much we can predict based on 2 weeks of sales data. I'm sure at some point UMD was looking like the portable media for the future with super fantastic short term trends....

Kinda like when we expected the war in Iraq to end after a few weeks of fighting.

PM sent.
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post #504 of 9375 Old 02-01-2007, 09:38 PM
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Was considering buying a standalone HD-DVD player to run next to my PS3. Not going to bother now. It's a race. Which comes first, Blu-ray getting all the titles or a 1080p HD-DVD player for $100. I'm in no hurry. Some great titles are HD-DVD exclusive but seeing the sales results I'm going to wait. Not buying a $600 turkey.

It is funny about the PS3. All the bashing and reporting said demand had dropped to the floor and that the built in blu-ray drive would do nothing to help the blu-ray camp because gamers don't want it. And here we are, still amazon can't keep a PS3 in stock longer than a day and the console has single handedly taken away the only advantage HD-DVD had - early lead in the market share.
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post #505 of 9375 Old 02-01-2007, 09:52 PM
 
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Originally Posted by wnorris View Post

I checked a nearby CC this weekend and they did have Toshiba HD-DVD. Stupidly enough though, I could find no HD-DVD discs.

A month ago, I asked if they had any HD-DVD's. The sales guy said they only carried Blu-ray and would never carry HD-DVD, because BD was superior in every way. Oops!

at my local CC the HD-DVD are in the same section as the DVD's while blu-ray's are out on display between all the HDTV's.
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post #506 of 9375 Old 02-01-2007, 09:58 PM
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Originally Posted by briankmonkey View Post

I'd rather have overpriced BD disc than the even more expensive HD-DVD combo's.

How much does Fox discs go for??

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post #507 of 9375 Old 02-01-2007, 10:13 PM
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Originally Posted by Humbert Humbert View Post

Was considering buying a standalone HD-DVD player to run next to my PS3. Not going to bother now. It's a race. Which comes first, Blu-ray getting all the titles or a 1080p HD-DVD player for $100. I'm in no hurry. Some great titles are HD-DVD exclusive but seeing the sales results I'm going to wait. Not buying a $600 turkey.

It is funny about the PS3. All the bashing and reporting said demand had dropped to the floor and that the built in blu-ray drive would do nothing to help the blu-ray camp because gamers don't want it. And here we are, still amazon can't keep a PS3 in stock longer than a day and the console has single handedly taken away the only advantage HD-DVD had - early lead in the market share.

good for you! and on your second para .. LMAO !!
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post #508 of 9375 Old 02-01-2007, 10:17 PM
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Originally Posted by jmpage2 View Post

Well, it's extremely frustrating to see studios sit on the sidelines when they have hd-dvd releases in the can.

Pent up frustration is evident when you see the first decent new release in months shoot to the top 100 of the Amazon charts and best the position of the #1 BR release.

The real concern that I have is that studios are intentionally starving HD-DVD content over the next several months to see if they can kill HD-DVD off that way.

I'd love to see what Amir has to say about this, backed by some facts, not the same "just hang in there" we've been hearing for weeks now.

Like Warners holding off HD DVD top tier films waiting for "parity" with BD? The BD group is laughing their asses off. I am not pissed with Toshiba I am pissed with the so called "neutral" studios. It doesn't take a genius to realize that if the BD group dumps a ton of films for purchase, or preorder, their numbers are going to rise as far as attachment rate. I only hope the HD DVD group (as I am sure they have) has taken this into their long term strategy. I am still pissed though. Very frustrating period of time. I would buy into BD if not for the BD-J debacle. This is still unknown. I won't invest in a current player until I know it has full interactive features for BD and I am not getting any positive responses from the BD insiders. When it comes to BD-J soon to be interactive features they are silent.

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post #509 of 9375 Old 02-01-2007, 10:43 PM
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If this is a precursor to the future. The blame for HD DVD failurerests in three places.

1) Neutral studios refusing to release HD DVD product while BD catches up
2) Universal slowing down their release schedule for totally bizzare reason.
3) HD DVD early adopters being impatient and buying bluray as well.

IMO, Anyone who is too damn impatient to follow through with a purchasing descision deserves to loose the $500+ entry price for a HD DVD player when they eventually have to stop using it.

Personally, I refuse to buy Bluray and undermine the format I want to win the war. It diminishes the value of the software titles and machine I paid for.

The overiding issue I have now is that they keep releasing HD DVD at a rate that means I will have significant quantities of titles into the future so I can continue to use the hardware I purchased. I will keep buying them cheap even off those of you that dump HD DVD going foward.

If I eventually buy Bluray cause it wins. I will still have a use for HD DVD and the player years into the future and certianly wont replace titles with possibly cruddy Mpeg2 transfers.

In all likeyhood a dual format player will appear way before then. I win either way.

BUT DONT UNDERMINE HD DVD by being impatient. If you buy Bluray, you are sending a very scrambled message that will undermine studios who may be teetering on going neutral.

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post #510 of 9375 Old 02-01-2007, 11:31 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by b2bonez View Post

A few of my own Carnac predictions...

1) Warner not finding any other willing victims for their Total HD discs wiil produce 4 titles that are greeted by howls of complaints by both sides "being forced to pay for that other disc "

2) Paramount after going through the pains of BD and HD-DVD combo disc production for the most of 2007 announce in October they are dropping HD-DVD for "the low cost solution of Blu-Ray".

3) Toshiba announces at CES 2008 three new Blu-Ray/HD-DVD combo players to "fill the gap" for HD-DVD supporters. The new players will also support the new 51GB TL discs that replace the older 30GB DL format that is being abandoned. Warner at the same time anounces "Total HD+" which is a 51GB/50GB HD combo flipper disc aimed to reduce retailer and consumer confusion about the new HD formats.

b2b

ROFLMAO

Howls of laughter, pounding floor in unbridled laughter

ROFLMAO again


Your not actually serious there , are you?

0% chance

(only if all the boats carrying the HD A2s over at don't make it to shore)

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