Nielsen/VideoScan sales ratios and Top 5 - Page 175 - AVS Forum
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post #5221 of 9375 Old 04-20-2007, 05:01 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by nataraj View Post

Let us think about it. What studios care about is how many they can sell per title. SI figures is not a useful indicator there.

I guess in that case a relevant statistic to consider would be:

Quote:
Originally Posted by Grubert View Post

Q1 Sellers based on VideoScan and studio research
In thousands

2. The Departed BD 53.64
3. The Departed HD 31.59

Same title, HD DVD sales 60% of BD sales.

It will be interesting to see how Happy Feet stacks up...
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post #5222 of 9375 Old 04-20-2007, 05:58 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Phloyd View Post

Same title, HD DVD sales 60% of BD sales.

Individual titles will sell better in one or the other. I can list the titles that sold better in HD DVD too. The question is on avg how are they selling.

Anyway, we will see how things go in '08 - this is what I was referring to.
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post #5223 of 9375 Old 04-20-2007, 06:01 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by nataraj View Post

Individual titles will sell better in one or the other. I can list the titles that sold better in HD DVD too. The question is on avg how are they selling.

Anyway, we will see how things go in '08 - this is what I was referring to.

Please do. I'd like to see which ones have.
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post #5224 of 9375 Old 04-20-2007, 06:02 PM
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My IQ dropped 30 points from reading this thread.
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post #5225 of 9375 Old 04-20-2007, 06:03 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by fozziwig View Post

FACT: HD DVD is not catching up. That would suggest the gap between the two formats was decreasing as opposed to increasing.


FACT: HD DVD is not getting closer (only further away).

I'm not sure what is confusing people about these rather basic concepts.

This all reminds me of when I was in 2nd semester Physics(I've got a Chemistry degree, but took a lot of Physics). The concept of Velocity is easily grasped by most. The concept of Acceleration is easily understood.(Deceleration is the opposite). Time is, of course, part of the equation. When people would look at differences over time holding one variable constant and varying the other, like constant velocity or constant acceleration and then put that in graph form, they would get very lost. These were very smart people who would lose all logic and forget very basic fundamentals. Take you in your car, if acceleration is equal to zero, then you are going a constant velocity. You could be stopped at a stop sign(then your velocity would also equal Zero) or you could be driving 65mph down the highway.(your velocity would equal 65 mph). If someone behind you by some distance is traveling at a greater velocity, they are catching you(it doesn't matter what the acceleration is because the only way they can catch you is if their velocity is greater than yours for some period of time.) If you always maintain a greater velocity, then the distance by which you lead is always increasing. If you accelerate and decelerate(but always keep a velocity greater than the car behind you), then the RATE at which you increase you lead changes. If the distance gets extremely large, then you could actually stop your car at a rest stop for some period of time, then get back on the highway and still have a lead. People get very confused with rates of change vs. positive or negative values.

Its very easy. If you have acceleration of Blu-ray sales ratio, then velocity is INCREASING.(Blu-ray is pulling away from HD DVD) If you have deceleration(negative acceleration) of Blu-ray sales ratio, then velocity is decreasing.(HD DVD is catching up). In the above posts, acceleration has always been a number greater than 1. This means Blu-ray has always been increasing its velocity and pulling away. When the number is closer to, but greater than 1, its pulling away at a smaller rate. When the number begins to rise much above 2, then its pulling away at a greater rate.

In order to be catching up, HD DVD will have to surpass Blu-ray in velocity, which in our case means it will have to sell MORE discs than Blu-ray in a given week to even begin to "catch up". In order to actually catch up, HD DVD will have to surpass Blu-ray in sales for a length of time. The amount of time depends on the difference in the number of discs and the magnitude of the sales difference.

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post #5226 of 9375 Old 04-20-2007, 06:14 PM
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Quote:
Please do. I'd like to see which ones have

this is what the search function is for. This thread had an extensive discussion of the report Sony issued, which listed sales of titles. You can find that information in there.

Darin,

You were partially right. You were not the one that said that China was too poor to support HD DVD players, it was Anthony P who said that.

http://www.avsforum.com/avs-vb/showt...hd+dvd+players

Nonetheless, the implications of the news I posted are starting to raise their heads.
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post #5227 of 9375 Old 04-20-2007, 06:44 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by theflux View Post

Please do. I'd like to see which ones have.

If you search, there is a spreadsheet with all the numbers posted ... if you can't get to it, I'll post the list when I can.
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post #5228 of 9375 Old 04-20-2007, 06:51 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by MrPorterhouse View Post

In order to be catching up, HD DVD will have to surpass Blu-ray in velocity, which in our case means it will have to sell MORE discs than Blu-ray in a given week to even begin to "catch up". In order to actually catch up, HD DVD will have to surpass Blu-ray in sales for a length of time. The amount of time depends on the difference in the number of discs and the magnitude of the sales difference.

Well, it depends on what you think is driving sales. (Before I continue: if you were to suggest that I'm a HD DVD fanboy, pls do check my posting history ) Note that, in stationary state, the rate at which discs sells is determined by the number of players (ie the level). So if we see HD DVD sales accelerating relative to BD, this would indicate (again in stationary state) that the rate at which HD DVD players sell is higher than the rate at which BD players sell (since you're integrating). In that case, the level of HD players is indeed catching up (approaching) with the level of BD players. So the statement that 'HD may be catching up' is not that crazy: it depends on what you think is the key driver in this process.
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post #5229 of 9375 Old 04-20-2007, 07:43 PM
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Here is the first estimate. I've used YTD and Weekly ratios, instead of YTD and SI ratios like we used to. Some more corrections need to be done to get SI numbers right.



Edit : As you can see this is the worst week for BD in terms of actual sales. Actually past two weeks have been the worst two weeks. Not exactly a sign of sustained growth.

Here were the releases for the period.

Code:
04/10  Dog Day Afternoon         W   DL   V           DD+    EFS       28.95 
       Dog Day Afternoon         W        V           DD     EFS       28.95
       Dragon's Lair             O
       Payback                   P                                     29.99 
       Payback                   P                                     29.99
       Scanner Darkly, A         W   DL   V           DD+    EFS       28.95 
       Scanner Darkly, A         W        V           DD     EFS       28.95
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post #5230 of 9375 Old 04-20-2007, 08:24 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by nataraj View Post


Edit : As you can see this is the worst week for BD in terms of actual sales. Actually past two weeks have been the worst two weeks. Not exactly a sign of sustained growth.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Grubert View Post


Week ending April 8, 2007
Week 62.4/37.6

New data in as of 4/15
Week 61/39

Since the ratios are barely different, I guess this must be true of HD DVD also?

Not exactly a sign of sustained growth.
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post #5231 of 9375 Old 04-20-2007, 08:51 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Phloyd View Post

Since the ratios are barely different, I guess this must be true of HD DVD also?

Can't you see the chart ?
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post #5232 of 9375 Old 04-20-2007, 08:52 PM
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phloyd,

Quote:


Since the ratios are barely different, I guess this must be true of HD DVD also?

Not exactly a sign of sustained growth.

True, but it is also not a sign that BD is pulling away from HD either.
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post #5233 of 9375 Old 04-20-2007, 09:06 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by george king View Post

phloyd,
True, but it is also not a sign that BD is pulling away from HD either.

This thread is becoming too cluttered with blurbs, but I'll point out quickly that:

SINCE BLU-RAY IS OUTSELLING HD-DVD EVERY WEEK BY AN AVERAGE OF 2:1, THEN BLU-RAY IS PULLING AWAY FROM HD-DVD.

The WIDENING SI and YTD absolute sales numbers numbers will easily show this fact.

Btw, Dragon's Lair looks like it is counted as a game, not a movie title (e.g. see amazon.com)
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post #5234 of 9375 Old 04-20-2007, 09:11 PM
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Wrong Thread

89+ Blu-ray Disc ;)
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post #5235 of 9375 Old 04-20-2007, 09:27 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by asj2006 View Post

Btw, Dragon's Lair looks like it is counted as a game, not a movie title (e.g. see amazon.com)

Well, isn't that correct? It *is* a game.
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post #5236 of 9375 Old 04-20-2007, 09:35 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by asj2006 View Post

This thread is becoming too cluttered with blurbs ...

So you have nothing to say about this weeks numbers ? Just about general averages ? Then why post ?
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post #5237 of 9375 Old 04-20-2007, 10:47 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by nataraj View Post

So you have nothing to say about this weeks numbers ? Just about general averages ? Then why post ?

Blu-ray is still outselling HD-DVD and widening its sales lead no matter what HD-DVD does (including some really juvenile "manipulation" of amazon.com rankings). Does that about cover it?
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post #5238 of 9375 Old 04-20-2007, 11:09 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by nataraj View Post

Can't you see the chart ?

Yeah I see HD DVD in a downward trend for the last two weeks, just like BD...

What do you see?

Quote:


True, but it is also not a sign that BD is pulling away from HD either.

Every week that HD DVD sells less than BD, BD is pulling away from HD DVD.

Widening the gap. This week is no exception.

Does your math work differently?
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post #5239 of 9375 Old 04-20-2007, 11:14 PM
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phloyd,

it all depends on what you mean by widening the gap - the ratio is not increasing, hence in one sense the gap is not widening, as much as asj would like to assert. There is a constant difference between the two. However, in terms of YTD numbers, the gap widens.

asj,

Quote:


Blu-ray is still outselling HD-DVD and widening its sales lead no matter what HD-DVD does

you in particular though have a small problem. You spent a couple of weeks repeatedly posting that BD was outselling HD 4:1, and touting that as a sign of BDs strength. However, it is now back down to where it pretty much has been for a while 1.5-2:1. so, in some respects, in the context of your earlier posts, BD has lost some of its strength so to speak.
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post #5240 of 9375 Old 04-20-2007, 11:27 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by george king View Post


it all depends on what you mean by widening the gap - the ratio is not increasing, hence in one sense the gap is not widening, as much as asj would like to assert. There is a constant difference between the two. However, in terms of YTD numbers, the gap widens.

Indeed. In absolute numbers (SI, YTD, etc) the gap widens ... it is just not widening at an increasing rate. In fact, in order for HD DVD to make ground it needs to sell more than BD in the given week... Even if HD DVD picked up to 45/55, the gap would be widening in favour of BD, just at a decreasing rate...

However the ratio has not really changed over the last few weeks which means that any trend for BD has been followed by HD DVD with the same percentage.

This is why I found it surprising that nataraj sees that as a bad thing for BD but does not acknowledge that HD DVD has followed the roughly the same percentage drops in sales.

It is not good news for either format - I would say equally bad news for both.
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post #5241 of 9375 Old 04-21-2007, 12:43 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by plazman View Post

The logical flaw in your argument is that you are assuming that you are assuming that BD wins by having 51% of the market.

In fact the short term strategy of HD DVD has always been co-existance since it has long term cost advantages that are not factors now (like using DVD lines to replicate disks and cheaper laser assembly and drives).

So, all that HD DVD needs to do in the short term is to achieve viability. Sony is spending a lot on software subsidy, hardware subsidy and of course PR and marketing....so, closing the gap in terms of achieving a stable 60:40 share or even 70:30 share is and important achievement in the short term since Sony probably will find it hard to continue this rate of spending.

I believe others including hardware vendors like TDK and Samsung and LG are seeing the writing on the wall. Resistance is futile

The SI number is irrelevant. Current weekly sales trending is far more important. Its the trends,not the history.

Blu-ray's PR strategy has been based on inevitability and a sense of increasing momentum and a steadily increasing gap in sales.

Trends are what is important, not historical sales figures.

The simple fact is that Blu-ray is currently leading in the sales ratios, but the volumes are pitifully small. The Blu-ray PR campaign has heavily been based on increasing separation and overwhelming sales advantages.

The fact that HD DVD has closed that sales gap trend is counter to the BDA PR campaign.

Current sales of hardware implies that HD DVD is a viable format. Blu-ray's ecosystem work best with Blu-ray the sole survivor. The PS3 has not proved to be the death blow to HD DVD.

Although its obvious Blu-ray still leads in the low volume of current HD disc sales, it is no longer apparent that player sales will be in Blu-ray's favor. The weight of increasing lower priced HD DVD players seems to an ever increasing factor that will eventually lead to dramatically larger HD DVD sales. The question is when.

CE companies may now decide that HD DVD is the horse that may break into mass market sales territory.

The simple fact that Blu-ray is not pulling away in weekly sales and HD DVD is competitive on a weekly basis is counter to the BDA claims.

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post #5242 of 9375 Old 04-21-2007, 02:37 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by nataraj View Post

I've not seen anything this silly since ... well people arguing by what % 50GB is higher than 30GB.

It all depends on what your reference is. HD DVD is catching up with BD in terms of weekly sales ratio - but not in terms of YTD or SI totals. Lets move on.

Not with that comment Nat! You're right, it is pretty silly to think selling less is doing well. (I'm not sure you can demonstrate that selling less is good, even using String Theory - http://superstringtheory.com/).

The kindest thing I can say about your view is that I agree that the sales volume gap between Blu-ray and HD DVD has been increasing at a slightly lower rate in the past few weeks.

If this is an achievement for the HD DVD camp then you really should raise your sights a little.

But, back to reality. I think both camps would like to be seeing weekly volumes above 100,000 by now. Blu-ray certainly, with the difference in studio support. That this hasn't happened is bound to be unsettling, but what is to be done.

HD DVD have decided to cut hardware prices. Blu-ray have decided to sit tight and bank on the studio support coming good for them as more blockbusters are fed into the Blu-ray library.

Ken Graffeo seems convinced that HD DVD will start to catch up (even he's at it) in the 4th quarter. Sony seem to think that HD DVD will be enjoying a market share on a par with their Japanese counterparts by Christmas.

In the meantime we can all have fun with the weekly Nielsen numbers. Trust me, a lot of people think people posting here are slightly worse than silly - and that includes the people who only post the "I can't believe you're still talking about....." comments - especially them!
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post #5243 of 9375 Old 04-21-2007, 07:23 AM
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Blu-ray studios are clearly rationing AAA blockbuster releases this early in the year, but are aware they will sell in big numbers (for HD) when released.

On the HD-DVD side it seems a risky strategy to allow BD to outsell them 2-1 for the course of the year, then hope to blow BD away with cheap Chinese players in Q4.

What if BD floods the market with AAA titles and introduces competitively priced players in the meantime, all of which are likeyl?
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post #5244 of 9375 Old 04-21-2007, 08:09 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by JAG1977 View Post

What if BD floods the market with AAA titles and introduces competitively priced players in the meantime, all of which are likeyl?

I don't think they can. Sony can't afford to lose 10-20% of their PS3 sales, and undercut their standalones, so they won't grant the licenses.
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post #5245 of 9375 Old 04-21-2007, 08:19 AM - Thread Starter
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My analysis:

This week had no day-and-date releases, and three neutral catalog releases. Interestingly, Payback sold better than A Scanner Darkly. Old mainstream beats new arthouse.

In this extremely neutral week, which little mass appeal, sales were about 30,000 for BD and 20,000 for HD DVD, per above estimates. In another week, title advantage would add on top of that.

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post #5246 of 9375 Old 04-21-2007, 08:23 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by george king View Post

you in particular though have a small problem. You spent a couple of weeks repeatedly posting that BD was outselling HD 4:1, and touting that as a sign of BDs strength. However, it is now back down to where it pretty much has been for a while 1.5-2:1. so, in some respects, in the context of your earlier posts, BD has lost some of its strength so to speak.

Uh, dude, you DO know that 4:1 lead was because of CR, right, and that it could not have lasted?
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post #5247 of 9375 Old 04-21-2007, 08:27 AM
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Indeed. Those conclusions based on Casino Royale were misguided to begin with.
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post #5248 of 9375 Old 04-21-2007, 08:54 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by fozziwig View Post

Not with that comment Nat! You're right, it is pretty silly to think selling less is doing well.

Since you can't figure out what I'm saying. Let me spell it out for you.

It is silly to be talking about "catching up" - without defining what exactly you mean. Depending on the definition (i.e. whether you are looking at weekly ratio, ytd or SI numbers) you get different answers.

I can clearly see both sides of the argument - can you ?
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post #5249 of 9375 Old 04-21-2007, 08:56 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Phloyd View Post

Yeah I see HD DVD in a downward trend for the last two weeks, just like BD...

What do you see?

I don't really know why you are replying to my posts. Afterall you have extreme prejudice against anyone who works for MS - as you stated yourself.

Go back and read the context.
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post #5250 of 9375 Old 04-21-2007, 08:56 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by JAG1977 View Post


What if BD floods the market with AAA titles and introduces competitively priced players in the meantime, all of which are likeyl?


What if BD weren't actually all one entity but a collective of CE groups and studios, and were all acting somewhat independent of each other and in whatever way their priorities dictated?

Why then you'd have players that don't all conform to spec and studios who release titles as they see fit, based on things like copy-protection and implementation of BDJ. Some CE groups might even branch off into releasing hybrid players.
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