Nielsen/VideoScan sales ratios and Top 5 - Page 178 - AVS Forum
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post #5311 of 9375 Old 04-22-2007, 09:26 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Icemage View Post

Will try to have a (hopefully) more sensible projection this evening.

One idea is to use Weekly and SI ratios to get one set of numbers. Then Weekly and YTD ratios to get another set. An approximate avg keeping weekly ratio correct will probably give us workable numbers.
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post #5312 of 9375 Old 04-22-2007, 09:43 AM
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Originally Posted by Neo1965 View Post

If walmart really ordered 2M of something related to highdef , that would be interesting.... since they form the missing piece of the sales puzzle not covered by nielsen. I see them selling some highdef, but for them to order 2 million players of any kind when < 2M disks have sold in both highdef formats combined is not very walmart like, someone would have had to make a pitch to them, and that would have to be one hell of a sales call.

Maybe not, next year is the last full year of analog broadcasting, so HDTV will be front and center. They'll be on the lead edge of the transition curve.
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post #5313 of 9375 Old 04-22-2007, 10:37 AM
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Quote:


Originally Posted by Kosty
No offense, but you always want to restrict the conversation in the manner most favorable to Blu-ray..


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Originally Posted by longshot View Post

Please. And you don't do the same in your pro HD DVD rants?

That WAS pretty funny.
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post #5314 of 9375 Old 04-22-2007, 10:57 AM
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Quote:


Originally Posted by Neo1965
If walmart really ordered 2M of something related to highdef , that would be interesting.... since they form the missing piece of the sales puzzle not covered by nielsen. I see them selling some highdef, but for them to order 2 million players of any kind when < 2M disks have sold in both highdef formats combined is not very walmart like, someone would have had to make a pitch to them, and that would have to be one hell of a sales call.

I am sure that Walmart did their own analysis of the situation - they are not known for being suckered nor do they often listen to other people. So they must have seen something in their analysis that they liked, or they wouldnt have done this.
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post #5315 of 9375 Old 04-22-2007, 11:04 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Grubert View Post

The Wal-Mart topic would be better addressed in other topics such as this one.

This is a reported software sales thread. Not a rumored future cheap hardware sales thread.

Thank you, G. I think my head was about to explode.

And Kosty gave ME $hite for going off topic (sorry K, who loves ya'. ) I don't know if I've ever seen it this bad on this thread.
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post #5316 of 9375 Old 04-22-2007, 11:21 AM
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Originally Posted by Sketcha View Post

Thank you, G. I think my head was about to explode.

Now you know how it feels when people go OT

Quote:


And Kosty gave ME $hite for going off topic (sorry K, who loves ya'. ) I don't know if I've ever seen it this bad on this thread.

Yep. My charts and numbers seem to have had zero comments
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post #5317 of 9375 Old 04-22-2007, 11:25 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by nataraj View Post

Now you know how it feels when people go OT




Quote:
Originally Posted by nataraj View Post

Yep. My charts and numbers seem to have had zero comments

I truly appreciate your charts and numbers, nat. And I HAVE examined them. I tend to comment more when I find something wrong.
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post #5318 of 9375 Old 04-22-2007, 12:05 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Grubert View Post

The Wal-Mart topic would be better addressed in other topics such as this one.

This is a reported software sales thread. Not a rumored future cheap hardware sales thread.

I agree that the detailed discussion of the Wal-Mart buy of 2 Million HD DVD players should be discussed somewhere else.

I think this is the more comprehensive thread on the subject:

http://www.avsforum.com/avs-vb/showthread.php?t=836632

It is only relevant in this thread if it has a within the context of how the possibility of greater HD DVD hardware may be affecting the studios and consumers decision making processes. Those decisions start with the sales numbers and trends reported and analyzed in this thread, but projected over what what would be the expected in sales based on the anticipated hardware installed base.

Quote:


Not a rumored future cheap hardware sales thread

Your use of this term indicates a possible bias, not quite in sync with your signature. Its a bit more substantial than a rumor and its effect could have a dramatic effect on dynamic of the format war and how this sales data in this thread is viewed. As a specific example, the strong possibility of that many new players in the market by Christmas means attach rates are more significant, that trends in H DVD sales are more significant and that Blu-ray failure to kill off HD DVD will mean that the small sales volumes here will not dramatically effect studio making, until they see the impact of the mass sales of Wal-Mart HD DVD players in the market.

To be far, most of the recent comments about the Wal-Mart players hav beein direct responses to other posts.

But I agree, most detailed decision, should be in those other theads, not here.

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post #5319 of 9375 Old 04-22-2007, 12:10 PM
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Quote:


Originally Posted by Kosty
No offense, but you always want to restrict the conversation in the manner most favorable to Blu-ray..

Quote:


Originally Posted by longshot
Please. And you don't do the same in your pro HD DVD rants?

Quote:
Originally Posted by Sketcha View Post

That WAS pretty funny.

The difference is I do not want to limit the discussion or stop the debate because I am losing it or it is not going my way.

Feel free to respond to me

I do NOT do the same. I do not want to limit the debate. I want to engage in it.

Not stop it if it is not going my way.

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post #5320 of 9375 Old 04-22-2007, 12:14 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Kosty View Post

I agree that the detailed discussion of the Wal-Mart buy of 2 Million HD DVD players should be discussed somewhere else.

I think this is the more comprehensive thread on the subject:

http://www.avsforum.com/avs-vb/showthread.php?t=836632

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post #5321 of 9375 Old 04-22-2007, 12:19 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by nataraj View Post

One idea is to use Weekly and SI ratios to get one set of numbers. Then Weekly and YTD ratios to get another set. An approximate avg keeping weekly ratio correct will probably give us workable numbers.

Is this issue the direct result of us only getting now the first alert data?

Does that imply that there is a growing gap between the first alert numbers and the final numbers that we only got corrected because of the comprehensive MArch 18th data set?

Can Grubert, beg for the final numbers each week from HMM is they are getting them, of can HMM get them in the future? If not was is HMM only getting or releasing the first alert numbers now, which are acknowledged to be equivalent to early box office numbers?

It is nice to be back on topic....

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post #5322 of 9375 Old 04-22-2007, 12:35 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Kosty View Post

Is this issue the direct result of us only getting now the first alert data?

Yes & No.

The original problem stems from us getting only 1st alert data for a given week. That ratio includes complete data for all other weeks.

The other problem is that we are geeting rounded ratios. As SI & YTD numbers grow and become increasingly large compared to weekly numbers, we need ratios at higher accuracy to calculate numbers well. The problem is in the last tow weeks we got ratios of lesser accuracy with the latest week being the worst (0 decimal places).

We would have still continued using the numbers and calculating merrily - except we now get a weekly ratio as well. As I've said earlier every week we get two new unknown numbers. To solve them we just need two ratios. But now we are getting three. You can use any two of them to get the numbers - and those numbers don't match (because of accuracy & first aler problems mentioned above).

So my solution is to average out the numbers got by using the 3 ratios ...
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post #5323 of 9375 Old 04-22-2007, 12:37 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by george king View Post

Darin,

You were partially right. You were not the one that said that China was too poor to support HD DVD players, it was Anthony P who said that.

I'm not sure how that makes me "partially right".
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Originally Posted by george king View Post

Uh, dude, Yes I knew that and even said that in some of my post. But apparently you didnt, as you never made that little caveat in any of your posts touting the 4:1 advantage. Heck, IIRC in your poll about Sales ratios for the end of March you predicted that the ratio would still be about 4:1, so apparently you did think it would last, for at least awhile.

As I said while the poll was going and before the results came in, it was going to show that some people really didn't understand the reasons for what was happening. The votes can be seen here:

http://www.avsforum.com/avs-vb/poll....ts&pollid=4560

I think anybody who voted higher than 3:1 didn't have much grasp of the situation. Nothing personal, but just an indication of their knowledge level IMO. As you pointed out, asj voted 4:1 to 5:1. When I saw that I figured that all he saw was the numbers and not the reasons for the numbers week to week.

As far as the next couple of week's data, I expect the next one (week ending April 22nd) to be the strongest week of the year for HD DVD on a ratio basis, with the next ending April 29th being stronger for Blu-ray than the 22nd on a ratio basis, due to the releases. "Planet Earth" is doing very well on Amazon for both formats and especially for HD DVD, but I still expect the ratio to be better for Blu-ray for the 29th than for the 22nd.

Those who like to play games like that sales for a shorter period should have a ratio the same as the number of releases (ignoring previous releases) could apply that to HD DVD having 5 new releases on 4/17 to just 2 for Blu-ray (and 2 that have already been released on HD DVD for a while and so pretty weak as far as releases go).

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post #5324 of 9375 Old 04-22-2007, 01:05 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by darinp2 View Post

As far as the next couple of week's data, I expect the next one (week ending April 22nd) to be the strongest week of the year for HD DVD on a ratio basis, with the next ending April 29th being stronger for Blu-ray than the 22nd on a ratio basis, due to the releases. "Planet Earth" is doing very well on Amazon for both formats and especially for HD DVD, but I still expect the ratio to be better for Blu-ray for the 29th than for the 22nd.

Those who like to play games like that sales for a shorter period should have a ratio the same as the number of releases (ignoring previous releases) could apply that to HD DVD having 5 new releases on 4/17 to just 2 for Blu-ray (and 2 that have already been released on HD DVD for a while and so pretty weak as far as releases go).

Apart from obvious effect of big releases like CR, I didn't see a high correlation between releases and numbers from the figures sony provided. Probably we need a better model (which includes the type of movie released, its BO etc) to be able to predict future numbers based on known future releases.
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post #5325 of 9375 Old 04-22-2007, 01:08 PM
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Originally Posted by darinp2 View Post

I think anybody who voted higher than 3:1 didn't have much grasp of the situation. Nothing personal, but just an indication of their knowledge level IMO. As you pointed out, asj voted 4:1 to 5:1. When I saw that I figured that all he saw was the numbers and not the reasons for the numbers week to week.

Quite true. Infact I'd say any HD DVD supporter expecting quick turn around now is also falling into the same trap. Infact somewhere I read an Universal exec specifically saying they don't expect a turn around till end of this year.
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post #5326 of 9375 Old 04-22-2007, 01:09 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by nataraj View Post

Apart from obvious effect of big releases like CR, I didn't see a high correlation between releases and numbers from the figures sony provided. Probably we need a better model (which includes the type of movie released, its BO etc) to be able to predict future numbers based on known future releases.

A model might be nice, but I'm just going by looking at the info I can find myself and coming up with my best guess. And to be clear, I'm not one of those who plays games along the lines of, "I think they had 3 times the releases during that period, so they should have 3 times the sales". I was mostly pointing out that anybody who has done that in order to prop HD DVD up (even though the 3x wasn't true), can play the same game with HD DVD for the next weeks data and claim that HD DVD should win by a large amount. Which they are unlikely to, since sales are never just for new releases, but include sales of previously released titles too and then their game would make HD DVD look bad.

--Darin

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post #5327 of 9375 Old 04-22-2007, 01:20 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by nataraj View Post

One idea is to use Weekly and SI ratios to get one set of numbers. Then Weekly and YTD ratios to get another set. An approximate avg keeping weekly ratio correct will probably give us workable numbers.

The problem is SI ratios are too rounded to be of any use. If instead of 57:43, they are actually 56.56:43.44 we get a nice match. So, I suggest we just use weekly and YTD ratios from now on.
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post #5328 of 9375 Old 04-22-2007, 01:28 PM
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Originally Posted by Kosty View Post

The difference is I do not want to limit the discussion or stop the debate because I am losing it or it is not going my way.

Feel free to respond to me

I do NOT do the same. I do not want to limit the debate. I want to engage in it.

Not stop it if it is not going my way.

Didn't mean to ruffle ya' too much, K. There was at least one more post with a response like this. I just used this one to point out something I had noticed.

Like I said, for me, it "WAS pretty funny." In other words my post was meant to be taken lightheartedly.
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post #5329 of 9375 Old 04-22-2007, 01:37 PM
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Okie dokie.

Fur back down. Feathers flattening back. Claws being withdrawn.

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post #5330 of 9375 Old 04-22-2007, 01:47 PM
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C'mon guys..this thread is for NIELSEN numbers, not for rumored stuff months in the future. Now, I know HDDVD needs all the help it can get, but posting repeatedly about things that belong elsewhere simply shows desperation on your part. Keep the numbers here. leave the speculation for junk threads.

* Posted via Nokia 9300 using JavaMe Opera Mini Browser.
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post #5331 of 9375 Old 04-22-2007, 02:11 PM
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HMM has posted up new April 4/15 numbers

61% / 39% Week ending 4/15
69% / 31% Year to Date
57% / 43% Since Inception

1:56 sales ratio for the weekly first alert ratio

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post #5332 of 9375 Old 04-22-2007, 02:14 PM
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Code:
Day      Week         YTD         SI
01/07  63.3/36.7      n/a         n/a
01/14  68.2/31.8      n/a         n/a
01/21  67.8/32.2   66.4/33.6   45.1/54.9
01/28  68.8/31.2   67.0/33.0   46.7/53.3
02/04  69.0/31.0   67.4/32.6   48.1/51.9      
02/11  69.6/30.4   67.7/32.3   49.3/50.7
02/18  65.0/35.0   67.4/32.6   50.3/49.7
02/25  68.5/31.5   67.4/32.6   51.5/48.5
03/04  65.7/34.3   67.2/32.8   52.2/47.8
03/11  68.7/31.3   67.9/32.1   52.8/47.2
03/18  81.7/18.3   69.2/30.8   54.3/45.7
03/25     n/a      70.4/29.6   55.6/44.4
04/01     n/a      69.9/30.1   56.2/43.8
04/08  62.4/37.6   69.4/30.6   56.4/43.6 

04/15  61 / 39     69  / 31    57 / 43

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post #5333 of 9375 Old 04-22-2007, 02:19 PM
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http://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/questex/hom042207/


Home Media Article summarizing Blu-ray's first quarter 2007 sales victory:

written by Thomas K. Arnold

70% first quarter sales Blu-ray 30% HD DVD

Feb 13 - Mar 31 The Departed sales 53,640 Blu-ray 31,590 HD DVD 62.9%/37.1% or 1.69:1 ratio

8/10 top selling HD dics in 1st qtr 2007 were Blu-ray discs

Casino Royale sold 59,680 units through March 31st

Between Jan1 and Mar 31, 1.2 million HD discs sold 832,530 Blu-ray 359,300 HD DVDs

Since Inception through Mar 31st 2.14 M HD discs total, 1.2 M Blu-ray 937,500 HD DVD

In March 335,980 Blu-ray discs sold, to 119,570 HD DVDs

Batman Begins sold 16,980 HD DVDs 1 Jan - March 31st, total SI through Mar31 for BB is 44,590 "not far behind Casino Royale"

Predictable quotes from all the BDA folks saying this means the format war is over. Funny that they managed to get direct quotes from Bob Chapek (Buena Vista) David Bishop (Sony) Mike Dunn (Fox) Andy Parsons (BDA and Pioneer) without managing a single direct quote from a single neutral of HD DVD source.

This seems to be intended as Blu-ray's 1st quarter victor lap dance PR piece.

The slight problem with their comments is that April sales are now showing a different more competitive story between the formats.

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post #5334 of 9375 Old 04-22-2007, 02:21 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Kosty View Post

HMM has posted up new April 4/15 numbers

61% / 39% Week ending 4/15
69% / 31% Year to Date
57% / 43% Since Inception

1:56 sales ratio for the weekly first alert ratio

Aren't these the same ones published 2 days ago? What's different about them?
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post #5335 of 9375 Old 04-22-2007, 02:28 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by nataraj View Post


So my solution is to average out the numbers got by using the 3 ratios ...

I'm obviously a bit dim so can you reveal how this works in pratice? As in: step 1...2...3 etc.

Which numbers are you averaging for instance? What would you say is your margin of error? Do you consider known volume data from previous months and allow for residual sales as well as new buyers for both format entering the market?

We really need those 2 decimal places back!
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post #5336 of 9375 Old 04-22-2007, 02:46 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Grubert View Post

Back to topic

New data in as of 4/15

Week 61/39
YTD 69/31
SI 57/43

I remember.

I just missed it because Grubert didn't have it in the 1st post.

Same numbers, it just that I see the new April 22-28 HMM is up.

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post #5337 of 9375 Old 04-22-2007, 02:47 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Kosty View Post

http://www.nxtbook.com/nxtbooks/questex/hom042207/


Home Media Article summarizing Blu-ray's first quarter 2007 sales victory:

Never understood the value of YTD as it's an arbitrary point in time in terms of either format's life cycle. It was OK for the early growth of BD. It is now a visual bias in favor of BD since it picks up when BD started doing well.

If we want to group numbers, maybe do it by quarters, then we can see gross trends. You can keep YTD to aid in calculations but it is misleading, since if HD ever takes off the effect of change will be masked by past BD sales in the YTD number.
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post #5338 of 9375 Old 04-22-2007, 02:51 PM
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Obviously,those numbers do not reflect HD DVDs more competitive showng so far in the second quarter.

The figures in that article are historical and are looking at data from January 1st through March 31st.

We all know Blu-ray did well in that period of time.

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post #5339 of 9375 Old 04-22-2007, 02:54 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by WayneL View Post

Never understood the value of YTD as it's an arbitrary point in time in terms of either format's life cycle. It was OK for the early growth of BD. It is now a visual bias in favor of BD since it picks up when BD started doing well.

If we want to group numbers, maybe do it by quarters, then we can see gross trends. You can keep YTD to aid in calculations but it is misleading, since if HD ever takes off the effect of change will be masked by past BD sales in the YTD number.

For studios looking at making decisions for the future, SI has a similar problem where you could have said:

You can keep SI to aid in calculations but it is misleading, since if BD ever takes off the effect of change will be masked by past HD sales in the SI number.

back when BD was gaining ground and many HD DVD fans were looking at only the SI numbers.

The one thing I think is the most misleading is playing tricks where HD DVD disc sales before the PS3 ever shipped are used to make it look like the PS3 has poor disc sales (or poorer than they are). I see multiple people doing that.

--Darin

This is the AV Science Forum. Please don't be gullible and please do remember the saying, "Fool me once, shame on you. Fool me twice, shame on me."
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post #5340 of 9375 Old 04-22-2007, 02:56 PM - Thread Starter
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Originally Posted by Kosty View Post

I just missed it because Grubert didn't have it in the 1st post.

They aren't there because they don't really exist yet.

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