Nielsen/VideoScan sales ratios and Top 5 - Page 18 - AVS Forum
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post #511 of 9375 Old 02-01-2007, 10:38 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Graham Johnson View Post

If this is a precursor to the future. The blame for HD DVD failurerests in three places.

1) Neutral studios refusing to release HD DVD product while BD catches up
2) Universal slowing down their release schedule for totally bizzare reason.
3) HD DVD early adopters being impatient and buying bluray as well.

IMO, Anyone who is too damn impatient to follow through with a purchasing descision deserves to loose the $500+ entry price for a HD DVD player when they eventually have to stop using it.

Personally, I refuse to buy Bluray and undermine the format I want to win the war. It diminishes the value of the software titles and machine I paid for.

The overiding issue I have now is that they keep releasing HD DVD at a rate that means I will have significant quantities of titles into the future so I can continue to use the hardware I purchased. I will keep buying them cheap even off those of you that dump HD DVD going foward.

If I eventually buy Bluray cause it wins. I will still have a use for HD DVD and the player years into the future and certianly wont replace titles with possibly cruddy Mpeg2 transfers.

In all likeyhood a dual format player will appear way before then. I win either way.

BUT DONT UNDERMINE HD DVD by being impatient. If you buy Bluray, you are sending a very scrambled message that will undermine studios who may be teetering on going neutral.

Let me guess. Don Quixote, the whole ride a magic horse to fight the windmill deal? There's a song in there somewhere.

I'm asking because I'm curious about how the 'want' part clicked in. Under the best scenario, HD DVD will survive for a couple of years, maybe more, but under the latest sales trend, HD DVD has almost zero chance of making BD go away, also zero chance of making Sony MGM (possibly Fox & Disney too) give up on BD.

IMO, at this point HDDVD is really only fighting for a draw.
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post #512 of 9375 Old 02-01-2007, 11:21 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by plazman View Post

It's amazing how much we can predict based on 2 weeks of sales data.

It isn't just 2 weeks of sales data. It is all the stuff we have from the Amazon rankings and the relative data for April 18th to now. But I do think many people are going too far with the predictions from it. Hopefully we will continue getting data for other weeks.
Quote:
Originally Posted by xboxboi View Post

BD movies consistently secondary to HD DVD. BDA=1.025M players, HD DVD=175K. BD should BY NOW outsold HD DVD 5:1. Yet still, Amazon data consistently show HD DVD ahead of BD. What went wrong?

The PS3s as a whole shouldn't have the same attach rates as standalone players, so why do you claim that BD should be outselling HD DVD 5:1? Your numbers also seen to be using shipped instead of sold for the BDA side or assume no HD DVD player sales after December 31st. And your statement about what the Amazon data shows is out of date. You could say it used to consistently show HD DVD ahead of BD, but it isn't right now and hasn't for at least a week (and even before that they were going back and forth throughout some days).

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post #513 of 9375 Old 02-01-2007, 11:23 PM
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Originally Posted by briankmonkey View Post

at my local CC the HD-DVD are in the same section as the DVD's while blu-ray's are out on display between all the HDTV's.


You do all know that product placement is paid for by the manufacturer and is not the retail store taking sides?

When I wrote Best Buy about this very issue, they told me strait-up that "special display and demos are created at the manufactures request"

Translation, Sony's paying them to play-up BD. Perfectly legal, the same is true of breakfast cereal and booze. However, don't confuse it with any sort of voluntary support on the part of major retailers.
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post #514 of 9375 Old 02-02-2007, 01:09 AM
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Sonyron will defeat all of his enemies.
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post #515 of 9375 Old 02-02-2007, 01:34 AM
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Originally Posted by Faceless Rebel View Post

Sonyron will defeat all of his enemies.

I really like your sig... and I think it's something Sony's concerned with!
While some folks here say Sony would love us to buy the PS3 no matter why, I have my doubts. If folks don't buy the games and rent the movies, this is going to really sting! Especially if Sony lowers the price even further (as I hear it's something they're considering)

As a gaming system, it competes with the more established 360 and the hotter and more affordable wii.

As a blu-ray player it's nearly 1/2 the cost of the standalones.

I bet we'll start to hear more about this.
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post #516 of 9375 Old 02-02-2007, 01:46 AM
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Quote:


IMO, at this point HDDVD is really only fighting for a draw.

If the underlying economics are better for hd-dvd, a draw could be as good as a win.

In other words BD can launch it's format based on heavy subsidies but can it sustain a format based on heavy subsidies? The costs of the format have to come down by driving volume up and being in a war with hd-dvd along with the ongoing fight to overtake DVD can't help volumes.

The BD plan is best in a win quickly scenario.

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post #517 of 9375 Old 02-02-2007, 01:48 AM - Thread Starter
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The sales information is spreading to more mainstream sites such as TG Daily and Slashdot.

Freedom is the freedom to say that two plus two make four. If that is granted, all else follows.
-George Orwell, Nineteen Eighty-Four
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post #518 of 9375 Old 02-02-2007, 01:51 AM
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TG Daily

Quote:


Millions of consoles have been sold and most include a voucher for money back on a Blu-Ray disc purchase.

? Did I miss the voucher?

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post #519 of 9375 Old 02-02-2007, 02:21 AM
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Sony cannot afford to sells hundreds of millions of PS3! PERIOD !! Especially when they are not getting anything back from game software sale.
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post #520 of 9375 Old 02-02-2007, 03:43 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Dahlsim View Post

If the underlying economics are better for hd-dvd, a draw could be as good as a win.

In other words BD can launch it's format based on heavy subsidies but can it sustain a format based on heavy subsidies? The costs of the format have to come down by driving volume up and being in a war with hd-dvd along with the ongoing fight to overtake DVD can't help volumes.

The BD plan is best in a win quickly scenario.

Both formats have subsidized in different ways. The pre-launch HD-A1 pricecut is not done because Toshiba suddenly discovered their bom was magically lower. Sony included rebates for BD movies in PS3s sold in US (no such luck for canadians) while Toshiba gave coupons for 3 free movies in every hd dvd player.

Because it is a format war, both sides are indeed pouring money in, meaning we all get good deals, which is why buying both players make sense in the short term.

Costs are not constant over time. Toshiba for example did find a magic way to reduce costs when they switched from BRCM to NEC and a different system architecture, while Sony's gameplan with PS3 is the age-old "squeeze the suppliers" that is very effective once you are talking millions of units.

Besides, many estimates of the HD-A1 and PS3 components are unrealistic. The PS3 HDD for example have been priced higher than what I would pay from local retail stores, as well as pricewatch.com, meaning while PS3 is sold below cost today, the exact amount is not that widely reported number, and is probably not far from breakeven. As was the HD-A1.
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post #521 of 9375 Old 02-02-2007, 04:01 AM
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TOKYO, Jan. 30 Sony, the Japanese electronics maker, said today that its profit had slipped in the third quarter as it took large losses on its new PlayStation 3 game console.
http://www.nytimes.com/2007/01/30/te...gy&oref=slogin

Tokyo Toshiba said on Wednesday quarterly profit more than tripled
Sales rose in Toshiba's digital products business, where its consumer electronics and PC categories reside

http://www.twice.com/article/CA6411961.html?nid=2402
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post #522 of 9375 Old 02-02-2007, 04:20 AM
 
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Tosh's subsidy of HD DVD is not close to what BD is doing. At this point Toshiba is probably already breaking even or making money.

IMHO, the BD economics is not sustainable. But only time will tell. I will not be surprised even if many BD backers while taking Sonys 'handout with a smile are aware of the burden they are placing on Sony. All they have to do is say, we support BD and Sony takes care of the rest - it's called an entourage

Will this be a quagmire for Sony? Not if they sell a lot of games to 50 million PS3 owners and are able to back away from subsidizing the big studios....and raising BD disk prices.

We haven't seen the end of this yet.
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post #523 of 9375 Old 02-02-2007, 04:42 AM
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The end is near. By the time HD dvd come out with there weak and and old.... while Blu-ray Slams them with New titles out of theater everyweek almost. By the time april and may come around Ps3 will have Tons more huge game titles and alot more PS3 sold including the UK in march. My guess is by may Universal will be begging for a chuck of blu ray.... and then HD dvd will RIP. Sad but facts are painful.

People are not goin to buy a 500$ player for 2-3 titles they enjoy they are goin to watch where all the new good titles are coming from and like was post most of the top selling movies are Blu-ray.
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post #524 of 9375 Old 02-02-2007, 05:18 AM
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The startup cost of building BD replication machines is no doubt higher than the old HD DVD ones --- unless the HD DVD ones also want to upgrade to new more cost effective technology to make the disks.

But these unit costs to run each disk, once the plants are up and running cannot be too different, because we are talking the same raw materials. Which means the question is if volume increase can be fast enough for production to bury the capital equipment costs. If you make 10 disks/hr, it's difficult to recoup a $1M investment, but if you can make 1000 disks/hr, the economics become easier.

Of course, this is just speculation, as I don't have their exact numbers. I am speaking from a general understanding behind the economics of 130nm vs 90nm wafer. If the tooling costs were a real hindrance to advancement in technology, we'd never have gotten to deep submicron. In fact, we'd still be stuck in discrete transistor land.

And as to whether Sony can sustain this is immaterial to everyone but Sony. As more new plants come online, the economics becomes easier and easier to handle. At this point, the quoted price for hassle-free content that any replication house will produce, is known to all here, and BD25 is quoted cheaper per unit than HD30.

If the new replication houses don't come online fast enough, then the economics don't make sense, and at some point it will be too painful.

But will reports like Nielsen's Videoscan data slow down or accelerate the building of new replication sites? What do you think?
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post #525 of 9375 Old 02-02-2007, 06:25 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by plazman View Post

Tosh's subsidy of HD DVD is not close to what BD is doing. At this point Toshiba is probably already breaking even or making money.

IMHO, the BD economics is not sustainable. But only time will tell. I will not be surprised even if many BD backers while taking Sonys 'handout with a smile are aware of the burden they are placing on Sony. All they have to do is say, we support BD and Sony takes care of the rest - it's called an entourage

Will this be a quagmire for Sony? Not if they sell a lot of games to 50 million PS3 owners and are able to back away from subsidizing the big studios....and raising BD disk prices.

We haven't seen the end of this yet.

If the trend in disk sales continues, blu-ray will win the format war. In that event, blu-ray will not have competitive pressure from Toshiba hardware and HD DVD software. That will allow Sony and others to hold the line on standalone prices. Prices for blu-ray hardware will come down very slowly (glacier pace).

Disk prices may rise. Sony will reduce its subsidies for disk replication. Blu-ray will charge whatever the hd market will bear. PS3 prices will hold steady until economies of scale turn a profit for Sony. Independent movie studios will stay with DVD (given the expense of producing on blu-ray).

People like myself will not buy blu-ray hardware or software (we only got into the game because of affordability) for years, if ever. In other words, the whole introduction of hd hardware will go into reset or default mode, where low prices appear only very slowly. That will keep hd a niche market for longer than if HD DVD were applying pressure.

Sony has bet the bank on this. They are not going to back out of their subsidies until the war is over. Can they afford to do this? Yes. If disk sales continue to rise, studios and other hardware manufacturers will cut them some slack.

The consumer will pay more (at least for longer than otherwise) if there is only one format on the field. I believe that price/performance is still the critical part of this whole competition. Public adoption will be delayed considerably when or if blu-ray wins exclusivity.

The wild card in all of this is the sales number for HD-A2 and HD-XA2. The A2 still is the fifth best-selling DVD player at Amazon:

http://www.amazon.com/gp/bestsellers...016770-5119945

That is very remarkable for a "niche" product. Even more remarkable is the XA2 in sixteenth place -- a very expensive item for a ranking that high in sales. Just note the "bargain" players all around it.

The A2 sales figures and the attach rate of HD DVDs will be important statistics to add to the mix. One issue with less expensive players, however, is the purchasers are more likely to rent, rather than buy HD DVDs. In that case, the "disk sales war" will not reflect actual use. Of course, studios are more interested in sales than rentals.

If Toshiba's HDTV with player promo falls flat and if sales of the A2 slip, then I think Toshiba has few good cards left in its hand. In that event, the inexpensive Chinese players may never appear in any great quantity. But those are big "ifs."
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post #526 of 9375 Old 02-02-2007, 06:51 AM - Thread Starter
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Gizmodo has picked up the news. And for a change, they're referencing this thread! Woo hoo!!

Freedom is the freedom to say that two plus two make four. If that is granted, all else follows.
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post #527 of 9375 Old 02-02-2007, 07:24 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by navysandsquid View Post

The end is near. By the time HD dvd come out with there weak and and old.... while Blu-ray Slams them with New titles out of theater everyweek almost. By the time april and may come around Ps3 will have Tons more huge game titles and alot more PS3 sold including the UK in march. My guess is by may Universal will be begging for a chuck of blu ray.... and then HD dvd will RIP. Sad but facts are painful.

People are not goin to buy a 500$ player for 2-3 titles they enjoy they are goin to watch where all the new good titles are coming from and like was post most of the top selling movies are Blu-ray.



Sadly, I think YOU are ignoring the facts.

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post #528 of 9375 Old 02-02-2007, 07:43 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Neo1965 View Post

Both formats have subsidized in different ways.

Of course some subsidization takes place on both sides. Sony's investment starting with the PS3 subsidy alone, let alone investment in the tech itself, replication equipment, BD50 replication etc. isn't matched dollar for dollar by anything on hd-dvd side.

Quote:


Because it is a format war, both sides are indeed pouring money in, meaning we all get good deals, which is why buying both players make sense in the short term.

I agree on the good deals, we consumers do get deals in pricing wars. Companies often have interesting ways of trying to recoup those losses later though when pricing wars are over.

Quote:


Costs are not constant over time

These costs will come down over time but a lot it assumes big increases in volume. If volumes remain relatively low costs might now come down so fast.

R&D & those up front subsidies wont' be completely forgotten either as I'm sure Sony would love recover at least some of that at some point.

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post #529 of 9375 Old 02-02-2007, 07:46 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by navysandsquid View Post

The end is near. By the time HD dvd come out with there weak and and old.... while Blu-ray Slams them with New titles out of theater everyweek almost. By the time april and may come around Ps3 will have Tons more huge game titles and alot more PS3 sold including the UK in march. My guess is by may Universal will be begging for a chuck of blu ray.... and then HD dvd will RIP. Sad but facts are painful.

People are not goin to buy a 500$ player for 2-3 titles they enjoy they are goin to watch where all the new good titles are coming from and like was post most of the top selling movies are Blu-ray.

While that may be true for the blue side of PS3, Sony has a much bigger uphill battle in the game side of things. With the PS3 bleeding exclusives left and right, the 360 with good content, and a kickin online interface, Sony finds itself in a place it is not used to, 3rd place. Also, please dont start with the "But wait and see what PS3 gets for games" With the 360 getting Mass Effect, Bioshock,Halo 3, its a tuff ride!

I'd love to get my hands on a Blu Monster's Ball.-LilStinky

Refering to a possible release of said movie on BD LOL
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post #530 of 9375 Old 02-02-2007, 07:52 AM - Thread Starter
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Originally Posted by Urza View Post

While that may be true for the blue side of PS3, Sony has a much bigger uphill battle in the game side of things. With the PS3 bleeding exclusives left and right, the 360 with good content, and a kickin online interface, Sony finds itself in a place it is not used to, 3rd place. Also, please dont start with the "But wait and see what PS3 gets for games" With the 360 getting Mass Effect, Bioshock,Halo 3, its a tuff ride!

That is immaterial. The BD camp doesn't need that the PS3 end up first. They just need that it sells well enough, and that enough console buyers use it to play BD movies.

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post #531 of 9375 Old 02-02-2007, 07:58 AM
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Originally Posted by Grubert View Post

That is immaterial. The BD camp doesn't need that the PS3 end up first. They just need that it sells well enough, and that enough console buyers use it to play BD movies.

Well, that's is true if the the goal is a stalemate. However, if the real goal is Blu-ray outright winning, the numbers would need to be better.

I've been predicting a stalemate all along and it seems that's what is going to happen for the foreseeable future (ie. the next 2-3 years).
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post #532 of 9375 Old 02-02-2007, 08:00 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Grubert View Post

That is immaterial. The BD camp doesn't need that the PS3 end up first. They just need that it sells well enough, and that enough console buyers use it to play BD movies.


Tell that to your friend who seems to think the PS3 will have blockbuster games out by May.

Regardless what you may think. The PS3 is a game console first to the public. If the public doesn't see games, it will not sell in volume.

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post #533 of 9375 Old 02-02-2007, 08:06 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BuGsArEtAsTy View Post

Well, that's is true if the the goal is a stalemate. However, if the real goal is Blu-ray outright winning, the numbers would need to be better.

I've been predicting a stalemate all along and it seems that's what is going to happen for the foreseeable future (ie. the next 2-3 years).

I have to agree with Grubert here. The PS3 doesn't need to sell well by "PS2 standards." It only needs to sell well by "ordinary CE standards". In other words, the PS3 could be a failure by PS2 standards, but that's because the PS2 was one of the biggest CE successes ever. The PS3 doesn't need to meet or top that. And it doesn't need to meet or top the 360 either. It doesn't need that kind of volume to be a much better than average seller as a movie player, which is the standard by which it should be judged, (for these purposes).
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post #534 of 9375 Old 02-02-2007, 08:09 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by SteroMAdMAn View Post

The PS3 is a game console first to the public.

PS3 is an excellent CE bluray player first to the AV early adopters. It really doesn't matter what the public or the gamers might think of it. The war is still fought within the early adopters market and bluray has nothing but advantage which will definitely win them this turf.

HDPLEX
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post #535 of 9375 Old 02-02-2007, 08:13 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by skogan View Post

I have to agree with Grubert here. The PS3 doesn't need to sell well by "PS2 standards." It only needs to sell well by "ordinary CE standards". In other words, the PS3 could be a failure by PS2 standards, but that's because the PS2 was one of the biggest CE successes ever. The PS3 doesn't need to meet or top that. And it doesn't need to meet or top the 360 either. It doesn't need that kind of volume to be a much better than average seller as a movie player, which is the standard by which it should be judged, (for these purposes).

While I think that PS3 is selling to the AV enthusiast to get a "cheap" BR player, I still think that the bulk of purchases are being made by gamers.

If the games don't show up then sales of the PS3 will still slow, although I would expect "good" sales through 2007.

If there aren't several blockbuster games by the 2007 holiday season though I could see PS3 sales numbers getting destroyed by a low priced 2nd generation Xbox 360.

How will this relate to the BR war? As some have said, Sony's entire strategy with CE companies is to encourage them sell high profit boutique players while the PS3 basically wins the war for Blu-Ray. After the war has ended then BR players can gradually get reduced in prices to give CE companies similar profit margins to what they saw with DVD players before they became a commodity item.

If PS3 sales really stagnated it is hard to say if BR could out and out "win" or if it could merely reach a draw with HD-DVD.

I suspect that if we see very weak software support for HD-DVD over the next six months it is an indicator that studios are trying to force an end to the war that way.

If software support picks up for HD-DVD but PS3 sells in great quantity and attach rate remains as high as it has, HD-DVD is dead in early 2008.

If software support picks up for HD-DVD but PS3 sales go soft or attach rate slacks off then I see a stalemate.
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post #536 of 9375 Old 02-02-2007, 08:14 AM
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Originally Posted by lymzy View Post

PS3 is an excellent CE bluray player first to the AV early adopters. It really doesn't matter what the public or the gamers might think of it. The war is still fought within the early adopters market and bluray has nothing but advantage which will definitely win them this turf.

Right, but is Sony's strategy that the PS3 is a blu-ray player sold as a gaming console or is it a gaming console that also pushes their new optical format?

The answer to this question is important because Sony can't sustain the heavy losses they are taking on the PS3 forever.
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post #537 of 9375 Old 02-02-2007, 08:15 AM
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Originally Posted by Grubert View Post

That is immaterial. The BD camp doesn't need that the PS3 end up first. They just need that it sells well enough, and that enough console buyers use it to play BD movies.

You need to read my post again. I was responding to someone saying how great PS3 was going to be with games. I was not refering to BD.

Another example of PS3's split personality issues.

I'd love to get my hands on a Blu Monster's Ball.-LilStinky

Refering to a possible release of said movie on BD LOL
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post #538 of 9375 Old 02-02-2007, 08:16 AM - Thread Starter
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New data in:

Week ended January 21, 2007
YTD: BD 100.00/ HD DVD 50.51
SI: BD 82.3/ HD DVD 100.00

Top 5 BD
1. Crank 100.00
2. Gridiron Gang 96.88
3. Black Hawk Down 92.35
4. Underworld: Evolution 84.46
5. Employee of the Month 71.86

Top 5 HD DVD
1. Clerks II 100.00
2. Batman Begins 90.04
3. The Mummy Returns 87.67
4. Lucky Number Slevin 72.84
5. Troy 45.61

Freedom is the freedom to say that two plus two make four. If that is granted, all else follows.
-George Orwell, Nineteen Eighty-Four
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post #539 of 9375 Old 02-02-2007, 08:20 AM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by jmpage2 View Post

Right, but is Sony's strategy that the PS3 is a blu-ray player sold as a gaming console or is it a gaming console that also pushes their new optical format?.

When Warner said they didn't think PS3/console would make a difference, they might be right that not too much gamers would buy $20-$25 HD discs. The problem here is not only gamers bought PS3.

Quote:
Originally Posted by jmpage2 View Post

The answer to this question is important because Sony can't sustain the heavy losses they are taking on the PS3 forever.

I don't think 200k-500k PS3 bought by none-gamers would make any difference in their balance sheet. However, it would be enough to lead the early adopters market by a very decent margin.

HDPLEX
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post #540 of 9375 Old 02-02-2007, 08:22 AM
 
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Originally Posted by Timothy Ramzyk View Post

You do all know that product placement is paid for by the manufacturer and is not the retail store taking sides?

When I wrote Best Buy about this very issue, they told me strait-up that "special display and demos are created at the manufactures request"

Translation, Sony's paying them to play-up BD. Perfectly legal, the same is true of breakfast cereal and booze. However, don't confuse it with any sort of voluntary support on the part of major retailers.

of course.. wnorris said he couldn't find any, was merely try to let him know where they could be at his store.
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