Nielsen/VideoScan sales ratios and Top 5 - Page 181 - AVS Forum
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post #5401 of 9375 Old 04-22-2007, 09:05 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by george king View Post

I hope Icemage is right, and that the precipitious drop in sales is due to tax season, otherwise both formats have a lot to worry about.

Maybe, but if you want a bright light, look at "Planet Earth". Especially on HD DVD, but both formats on Amazon. If it sells as well overall as those preorders seem to indicate, then could be a good sign for HD discs overall. Would tell the studios that if they deliver stuff that is especially compelling, buyers will come. And I hope it sells well enough to get them to come out with "Blue Planet" on HD disc.

--Darin

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post #5402 of 9375 Old 04-22-2007, 09:05 PM
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max,

yes, it makes sense, but that doesnt necessarily mean it is right
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post #5403 of 9375 Old 04-22-2007, 09:07 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by darinp2 View Post

So, how about showing us with this week numbers how badly the PS3 is doing at selling movies

If you read the above post, I already have. You can do the math. http://www.avsforum.com/avs-vb/showt...&#post10367312

Quote:
Might be fun to calculate the percentage of XBOX360 owners who have bought the add-on and how many more need to buy it to meet your 30% prediction.

I have no problem admitting that my prediction of 30% was rather exhuberant. I also admit that in the past I have also guessed wrong at how many gobstoppers were in a jar, too

How about we look at something more relevant, then? Such as it would seem that the PS3 has an attach rate of something like .37 movies per unit?

Quote:
What happened to your claim of 15x the Blu-ray players as HD DVD players for the US? Did you realize that you were misleading people with that claim, even though you defended it after I pointed it out, much like you've done with previous things?

You've just added the US, but I already said that my original statement which you criticised was a dramatic exaggeration given for effect, such as "Walmart are going to make a gazillion of the thing".

When I actually sat down and worked it out for my response to you, I was pleasantly surprised to see the true figure come in at 5 to 10 times the players, depending who's numbers you believe.

Question for YOU: Do you disagree that that with 5 times the BD players as HD DVD players, but with pretty equivalent sales numbers, that Bluray has a pretty stinky attach rate? Would you say that the Bluray format itself is responsible for this, due to PQ issues, bad player profiles, etc. Or would you say that the PS3 is responsible?
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post #5404 of 9375 Old 04-22-2007, 09:09 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by AnthonyP View Post

show me a consistent trend over several weeks?

Is Six weeks several enough for you?

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post #5405 of 9375 Old 04-22-2007, 09:10 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by darinp2 View Post

The runrate has narrowed, but I find it interesting how many HD DVD supporters all of a sudden seem to believe that the runrate is the important one.

Do you know what "runrate" is?
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post #5406 of 9375 Old 04-22-2007, 09:12 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by rdjam View Post

Do you know what "runrate" is?

Wow, and you said I attacked your credibility.

Gotta love those double standards.
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post #5407 of 9375 Old 04-22-2007, 09:19 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Icemage View Post

I still have you on ignore, but peeked at this post out of curiosity and the lack of understanding from you in this thread is mind-boggling.

Prove it.

Quote:
Are we talking about the same sales ratios I'm seeing? Because they're not moving all that much.

A shift from 4 to 1 down to 1.5 to 1 is not much? So when it moves from 1.5 to 1 down to 1 to 1 it won't be much then either? And when HD DVD moves ahead and the ration moves from 1 to 1 to 1 to 1.5 (in HD DVD's favour) then it won't be much then either?

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D DVD had a couple of strong releases in early April that have pushed the weekly sales higher than "the norm" but those releases still do not seem to have brought HD DVD into parity. Not on a weekly basis, let alone year to date or since inception.

A "couple of strong releases"? Whatever you say. Both formats had equivalent releases during this period. However, your help noticing releases could have been invaluable when HD DVD was down in the first quarter due to a holdup in releases.

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the scale of the figures, it could be many factors. We're seeing huge systemic drop in the sales figures. Would you like to wager that it's due to these being the last two weeks before tax season?

Nope, no need to bring uncle Sam into this. The "systemic drop" you mention is entirely due to a drop in Bluray sales. HD DVD sales are up, so if there is an overall drop in sales of both, I think we know where to point the finger.

Blaming uncle Sam for a drop in Bluray sales when HD DVD sales are up, is rather like blaming Samsung for poor quality BD releases when HD DVD is excellent.

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post #5408 of 9375 Old 04-22-2007, 09:23 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by rdjam View Post

How about we look at something more relevant, then? Such as it would seem that the PS3 has an attach rate of something like .37 movies per unit?

Let's have some fun. Tell us what the attach rate is for HD DVD, given your .37 for the PS3. The HD DVD group claimed 28 annualized before, so please give us your number since it seems that you've worked out the ratio between HD DVD and Blu-ray and got .37 for the PS3. I hope you aren't trying one of those deceptions where you use worldwide hardware numbers and US software numbers for the division. Are you playing that game?
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Originally Posted by rdjam View Post

You've just added the US ...

Please don't be dishonest. Do I need to link you to the post where you said it was for the US?
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Originally Posted by rdjam View Post

.. .but I already said that my original statement which you criticised was a dramatic exaggeration given for effect, such as "they are going to make a gazillion of the thing".

Are you trying to deceive people? You originally claimed 50x and after I called you on that you claimed it was 15x. So I called you on the 15x and you claimed it was right (and that the original was an exageration). I pointed out that you pushed the 15x here and now you want to act like that didn't happen. I can show the trail if you want to try to deceive people to make them think that isn't what happened.
Quote:
Originally Posted by rdjam View Post

When I actually sat down and worked it out for my response to you, I was pleasantly surprised to see the true figure come in at 5 to 10 times the players, depending who's numbers you believe.

For your response to me before you claimed that your post of 15x was right. Now you've changed it to 5 to 10 times. It shouldn't have taken more than once for you to quit your game of misinformation.
Quote:
Originally Posted by rdjam View Post

Question for YOU: Do you disagree that that with 5 times the BD players as HD DVD players, but with pretty equivalent sales numbers, that Bluray has a pretty stinky attach rate?

For what the device is I would say no. If the Toshiba players do 5x the PS3, then that would be in the expected range IMO and higher than the prediction you made in the past. If you thought 5x would be so bad, why were you using 10% for the PS3 before? I know you like to act like people shouldn't have known that the PS3 should have lower attach rates, which pretty much contradicts that you predicted 10% for the PS3 in the past.

If the Toshiba's had attach rates of even 3.7, that would be pretty bad for standalone players. What do your numbers work out to, given that you claim .37 for the PS3?

--Darin

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post #5409 of 9375 Old 04-22-2007, 09:24 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by george king View Post

I hope Icemage is right, and that the precipitious drop in sales is due to tax season, otherwise both formats have a lot to worry about.

If it makes you feel any better, I hope I'm right too. If these numbers persist, both formats are going to end up getting flushed into the sewers.

I don't really feel Planet Earth numbers are a good indicator. The fact that a $90 MSRP box set of a documentary is doing well as commendable, but it speaks volumes about the demographics that are buying these discs.

We've been hearing excuses all year long about why sales have been generally horrible. "Oh, post-Christmas blues".... "Oh, tax season's coming"....

While there's truth to all of these, I'm really beginning to wonder just how much traction there is for disc purchases outside of the HT enthusiast crowd. If you only pay attention to AVS, you'd think everyone was going to trek out and buy a new disc every week or two. However, we know that isn't the normal spending habit of the average consumer. We can babble about attach rates all we like, we can talk about sales ratios until we're blue in the face, but what both formats need... soon... is volume. Lots, and lots of volume.

My main concern is that retailers are going to lose patience. We saw a bit of evidence of this earlier this month with Best Buy pulling back a lot of duplicate copies of titles. How much longer are they willing to hold stock in software that just won't sell?
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post #5410 of 9375 Old 04-22-2007, 09:29 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by darinp2 View Post

For what the device is I would say no. If the Toshiba players do 5x the PS3, then that would be in the expected range IMO and higher than the prediction you made in the past. If you thought 5x would be so bad, why were you using 10% for the PS3 before? I know you like to act like people shouldn't have known that the PS3 should have lower attach rates, which pretty much contradicts that you predicted 10% for the PS3 in the past.

Your "answer" seems more about my previous exhuberant guesses at PS3 and Xbox consumer behaviour, than about your answer to my question, and you left part of my question out when you quoted and answered, so I'll ask it again for you:

Quote:
Originally Posted by rdjam View Post

Question for YOU: Do you disagree that that with 5 times the BD players as HD DVD players, but with pretty equivalent sales numbers, that Bluray has a pretty stinky attach rate? Would you say that the Bluray format itself is responsible for this, due to PQ issues, bad player profiles, etc. Or would you say that the PS3 is responsible?

And, perhaps you would be good enough to show us your calculations for PS3 attach rates and HD DVD attach rates? That would be very enlightening. Don't forget to inlcude the calculations for the number of standalone BD players in the market and what you think their effect is on the overall BD attach rate.

Thanks in advance.
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post #5411 of 9375 Old 04-22-2007, 09:30 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by darinp2 View Post

Let's have some fun. Tell us what the attach rate is for HD DVD, given your .37 for the PS3. The HD DVD group claimed 28 annualized before, so please give us your number since it seems that you've worked out the ratio between HD DVD and Blu-ray and got .37 for the PS3. I hope you aren't trying one of those deceptions where you use worldwide hardware numbers and US software numbers for the division. Are you playing that game?


--Darin

Yes, according to VGCharts the PS3 has sold 1.37m in the US and bump that up to about 1.43m to include standalone players, and we know 1m discs have sold through, giving us an attach rate of 0.70.
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post #5412 of 9375 Old 04-22-2007, 09:36 PM
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Originally Posted by darinp2 View Post

For your response to me before you claimed that your post of 15x was right. Now you've changed it to 5 to 10 times. It shouldn't have taken more than once for you to quit your game of misinformation.

I missed this in my reply, so I'll address it here. I didn't "change" this here, I explained the original post to you when you originally challenged it days ago, and also gave you the numbers upon which these are based at that time.

It is frustrating that one spends so much of the time "debating" you simply defending your charges that one is a dishonest deceiver. This is your standard method of debating anyone that says something you wish to disprove. You directly attack the poster, instead of discussing the information.

There should be threads reserved for a more considered and responsible line of debate than this - all in one post at that:

Quote:
Originally Posted by darinp2 View Post

trying one of those deceptions

Please don't be dishonest.

Are you trying to deceive people?

you want to try to deceive people

quit your game of misinformation

I know you like to act

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post #5413 of 9375 Old 04-22-2007, 09:37 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Icemage View Post

Alright then.

I took a stab at normalizing the numbers from Home Media Magazine. Please bear in mind that this is a guess because we don't really know what the previous weekly numbers really are (since this is all First Alert data - see the Error columns to see what happens when the First Alert data is significantly off).

Here's a guess at what's happening, though, as close as I can manage to Home Media Magazine's published data:


EDIT: Please note that these projections also show (since we have the real data up through early March), that there were about 12K unaccounted-for BDs in this projection as of March 25, and about 11K unaccounted for HDs in the projection as of March 25. I personally think these were "caught up with" in the April 1 projection (in fact, looking at the rest of April thus far, they couldn't have reappeared in any other week for HD DVD). It's possible that the undercounts are now out of sync, but seems unlikely given how much in lockstep the numbers have been thus far.

It kinda doesn't make sense that either Blu-ray nor HD DVD would drop in sales that much after the first of April.

I think the use of first alert data with the hard Jan 1st - Mar 18th is going to be an issue

We made be able to correct it though after the next weeks corrected SI and YTD numbers show up.

What would happened if we pretended we did not have the first alert data for the new week?

Can we just correctly calculate last weeks weekly number from this weeks SI and YTD numbers? Assuming those numbers at least are incorporating the corrected final numbers for last week and this weeks first alert numbers?

I feel like you guys are like the Enigma code breakers in WWII. Good work...


Grubert; Any chance at all at getting the corrected final numbers from last week as an update to the first alert numbers?

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post #5414 of 9375 Old 04-22-2007, 09:40 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Kosty View Post

That's your job. You do it so well.

Funny you say that since I actually don't tend to comment on most of the HD DVD PR that I have seen. There are a few cases of utter nonsense, like the 28 annualized attach rate, that I had to comment on but for the most part it doesn't interest me. There were some developments in HD DVD that I once was interested in such as TL45 but it turned out to be nothing but hot air.


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Originally Posted by Kosty View Post

Its just that I see more from the aggessive BDA PR campaign that pure spin. YMMV

I think the HD DVD PR campaign is better than you think and more far reaching than people know. I don't think it was a coincidence that so many HD DVD insiders have posted on this and other internet forums over the last year.


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Originally Posted by Kosty View Post

But I bet Blu-ray won't be ever able to claim a ratio like the reported March 335,980 to 119,570, (74% to 26% ratio) ratio again.

Never say never. If we ever see Universal go neutral we will see ratios far higher than that for Blu-ray.
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post #5415 of 9375 Old 04-22-2007, 09:43 PM
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Originally Posted by rdjam View Post

I missed this in my reply, so I'll address it here. I didn't "change" this here, I explained the original post to you when you originally challenged it days ago, and also gave you the numbers upon which these are based at that time.

Show me where you gave the numbers which it is based on, since anybody who follows the link can see that you were claiming it was 15x, then 16x, and now are claiming 5-10x. If you gave me the numbers then, how did things change from 15x to 5-10x?

Here:

http://www.avsforum.com/avs-vb/showt...&#post10206190

people can see that after I called you on your, ".... yet Bluray has 15 time the "players" in the market (counting the illustrious PS3, of course),..." you claimed that you had given it in a different thread and "When it was worked out, it came in closer to about 16 times the "players"." Twice now you've said that you gave the numbers, and I still don't recall seeing them.

Please just tell people what the numbers were, why you claimed 16x at that time and are claiming 5-10x now, all while claiming that you didn't change it here.
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Originally Posted by rdjam View Post

There should be threads reserved for a more considered and responsible line of debate than this - all in one post at that:

You are an adult and responsible for the misinformation you spread. The record shows that what you claimed isn't true. That isn't my fault. It is your's. Picking just one, go ahead and show people that your claim that, "You've just added the US ..." is true. I can provide a link to show that you claimed it was for the US.

--Darin

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post #5416 of 9375 Old 04-22-2007, 09:53 PM
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IIRC the HD DVD press release was careful to say that the attach rate would be "projected or annualized" to 28, which is the proper use of the term. The claim was never had the format achieved that ratio, as obviously a year had not passed by at that point.

As of now, its still hard to grab an attach rate as player sales are accelerating ,as new releases have not been consistently available, and as the CE sales season is picking up and both titles and players become more available. Applies to both HD DVD and Blu-ray.

At any time an attach rate calculation is a snapshot, and as titles get more frequent and available and as player numbers increase to a point where new monthly sales are a smaller percentage of the installed base, the calculations will be more stable and easier to do.

About the only thing we can say is that a smaller number of HD DVD player and Xbox 360 HD DVD drives owners are selling discs at rate that is competitive but still below a small number of standalone Blu-ray player owners and the percentage of the larger but still unknown number of PS3 owners buying Blu-ray discs.

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post #5417 of 9375 Old 04-22-2007, 09:57 PM
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http://www.thelookandsoundofperfect....d_ces_2007.pdf
Quote:
Originally Posted by HD DVD PRG Press Release Jan 7 2007 View Post

In just nine months time, The Look and Sound of Perfect has struck a chord with consumers, showing strong movie title sales and high attach rates.

As of January 5th, there are estimated to be more than 175,000 HD DVD players sold in North America, with new models in high demand. Using Nielsen data and retailer reports for title sales to date, the HD DVD studios projected an annualized attach rate of 28 movies per player.

Based on an expected install base of more than 2.5 million players by the end of 2007, the HD DVD Promotional Group estimates HD DVD movie title sales to exceed $600 million in North America for 2007.

This is more than 40 times the revenue accrued in 2006 by the format.


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post #5418 of 9375 Old 04-22-2007, 09:57 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by darinp2 View Post

Show me where you gave the numbers which it is based on, since anybody who follows the link can see that you were claiming it was 15x, then 16x, and now are claiming 5-10x. If you gave me the numbers then, how did things change from 15x to 5-10x?

Because as you mentioned right here in this thread a few posts before this one, that the original post was about worldwide numbers. Taking worldwide sales into account, the ratio is higher. I honestly don't know if it is as high as 15 to 1, but the principle of the discussion is that there are a lot more BD players around, yet the sales don't reflect it.

I know you'd like to get wrapped up in the difference between x and y, but how about you respond to my invitation to do YOUR OWN calculation of the players and attach rate differences, rather than looking for opportunities to critique others'?


At least that link shows that the earlier discussion about "50" times was for dramatic effect to highlight the nature of the discussion. Far more bluray players, yet no equivalent sales advantage.

Quote:


You are an adult and responsible for the misinformation you spread. The record shows that what you claimed isn't true. That isn't my fault. It is your's.

Again, a previous discussion that you drag with you like a tired notebook, so that you can try to bring it into any other discussion you please is not anyone else's "fault" but yours.

Again, if you have something relevant for this thread, please make a constructive contribution to the discussion. If your aim is to have a spat, I suggest to switch to PM for the sake of the thread.
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post #5419 of 9375 Old 04-22-2007, 10:01 PM
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I'm gonna hose you both down. I think we all get your points.

Please take it to PM

I want to hear Icemage's and Grubert's thoughts on this post.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Kosty View Post

It kinda doesn't make sense that either Blu-ray nor HD DVD would drop in sales that much after the first of April.

I think the use of first alert data with the hard Jan 1st - Mar 18th is going to be an issue

We made be able to correct it though after the next weeks corrected SI and YTD numbers show up.

What would happened if we pretended we did not have the first alert data for the new week?

Can we just correctly calculate last weeks weekly number from this weeks SI and YTD numbers? Assuming those numbers at least are incorporating the corrected final numbers for last week and this weeks first alert numbers?

I feel like you guys are like the Enigma code breakers in WWII. Good work...


Grubert; Any chance at all at getting the corrected final numbers from last week as an update to the first alert numbers?


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post #5420 of 9375 Old 04-22-2007, 10:03 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Kosty View Post

IIRC the HD DVD press release was careful to say that the attach rate would be "projected or annualized" to 28, which is the proper use of the term. The claim was never had the format achieved that ratio, as obviously a year had not passed by at that point.

As of now, its still hard to grab an attach rate as player sales are accelerating ,as new releases have not been consistently available, and as the CE sales season is picking up and both titles and players become more available. Applies to both HD DVD and Blu-ray.

At any time an attach rate calculation is a snapshot, and as titles get more frequent and available and as player numbers increase to a point where new monthly sales are a smaller percentage of the installed base, the calculations will be more stable and easier to do.

About the only thing we can say is that a smaller number of HD DVD player and Xbox 360 HD DVD drives owners are selling discs at rate that is competitive but still below a small number of standalone Blu-ray player owners and the percentage of the larger but still unknown number of PS3 owners buying Blu-ray discs.

Well the HD DVD advertising is not all that great while the BDA have been pretty good in the marketing department. A lot of people don't like the spin and rhetoric, but it works for the BDA, if they (as leading CE companies and studios) can send out the message that BD has won the war, HD DVD will be in trouble. I know places like Joystiq will say (rightly so) that the BDA are claiming a false victory, but if the tactic works (and it might because they can back up the claim with a few startling statistics these days) it will spell the end of the format war before any of these Chinese players (for HD DVD) or PiP (for BD) shows up.
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post #5421 of 9375 Old 04-22-2007, 10:05 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by rdjam View Post

Because as you mentioned right here in this thread a few posts before this one, that the original post was about worldwide numbers.

Not according to somebody who posts under rdjam. Here:

http://www.avsforum.com/avs-vb/showt...&#post10206284
Quote:
Originally Posted by darinp2 View Post

I do wonder if those making claims like 15 times the players where they count players in Europe that just sold in the last 2 weeks and sales in Japan while only counting software sales in the US are doing things like that purposely in order to deceive, or if they really don't know enough about this to keep from making claims like that.

Please, back up your 15 times the players by telling us how many of each and then explain why you would use overseas players. Blinded or purposely deceptive would describe that claim, IMO.

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Anyway, you'll be glad to know that I am talking specifically of the US market - but counting a few extra from Europe might be a really great idea - thanks!

Nice try though. Feel free to take it to PM, but I wasn't just going to let an untruth go after we had been over it and you tried multiple times to change history.

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post #5422 of 9375 Old 04-22-2007, 10:12 PM
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Originally Posted by Kosty View Post

IIRC the HD DVD press release was careful to say that the attach rate would be "projected or annualized" to 28, which is the proper use of the term. The claim was never had the format achieved that ratio, as obviously a year had not passed by at that point.

The original HD DVD press release though was less than clear what it meant by that and a good number of posters went around this forum declaring that HD DVD had an attach rate of 28 per player for a few months last year. Also the HD DVD companies were less than honest when they used that same annualized attach rate at CES even though it was outdated by that time.


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As of now, its still hard to grab an attach rate as player sales are accelerating ,

I think if the HD DVD companies wanted to do it they could have done it for the one year anniversary of HD DVD.
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post #5423 of 9375 Old 04-22-2007, 10:15 PM
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Originally Posted by Richard Paul View Post

The original HD DVD press release though was less than clear what it meant by that and a good number of posters went around this forum declaring that HD DVD had an attach rate of 28 per player for a few months last year.

I believe that Kosty was one of the leaders claiming attach rates that would have been way higher than 28 if annualized, based on a poll here and the position (an incorrect position IMO) that the poll was early adopters and HD DVD owners were early adopters, so the poll would be representative of all HD DVD owners at that time. I don't have the links right now, but my memory is that Kosty was claiming something close to 20 discs owned by each person (not annualized, but 20 actually purchased) around August of 2006. Kosty is welcome to say if he doesn't think this is accurate, but it is what I remember about some of the debates we had at that time.

My memory of the original press release in September is that is was clear, since it said 8.4 discs owned per player on average and then some of the things about the average ownership being close to 20 went down, or away.

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post #5424 of 9375 Old 04-22-2007, 10:31 PM
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yep, I said based on that poll that AVS owners, which I said were probably representive of the early adopter buyers, had reported over 20 movies owned. I also said that was very high and was good news for HD DVD.

I don't think I ever said that very very high attach rate would be sustained as more players were sold into the mass consumer market. That the attach rate could obviously drop as it penetrated into a larger population of owners. I also though HD DVDs attach rate was higher than DVDs at the same point in there lifecycles.

Thus I predicted more HD DVD players would be made and sold and Universal would stay HD DVD.

I also said that standalone Blu-ray player attach rates were looking high also, but there were looking to be a lot more HD DVD standalones sold because of the HD DVD player probable lower price points.

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post #5425 of 9375 Old 04-22-2007, 10:31 PM
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Max,

Quote:


the tactic works (and it might because they can back up the claim with a few startling statistics these days) it will spell the end of the format war before any of these Chinese players (for HD DVD) or PiP (for BD) shows up.

I think you are wrong, because the importance isnt the Chinese players per se, but rather that Walmart supposedly placed an order for 2 million players. Do they have Walmart in England? Walmart has tremendous clout and often dictates what major companies do because of their sheer purchasing power. If they put their money behind HD DVD this will delay the outcome until Walmart decides whether the experiment was a success or not.
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post #5426 of 9375 Old 04-22-2007, 10:35 PM
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It kinda doesn't make sense that either Blu-ray nor HD DVD would drop in sales that much after the first of April.

Indeed. Actually, both numbers for BR and HD on Apr 1 seem overly high to me, based on past figures on big release dates like The Departed and Casino Royale. This is really why I think the 11-12K worth of "missing" sales most likely reappeared in this period. It's possible that I am wrong and that those numbers remain unaccounted for, but that seems unlikely this many weeks out unless the same retailers continue to be late with reporting.

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I think the use of first alert data with the hard Jan 1st - Mar 18th is going to be an issue

There's no question about it. It's definitely a problem, and with Home Media Magazine dropping down to only full percentages, the problem gets worse. It's getting increasingly hard to read the tea leaves even with my spreadsheet.

Quote:


We made be able to correct it though after the next weeks corrected SI and YTD numbers show up.

What would happened if we pretended we did not have the first alert data for the new week?

Neither of these is possible to do. First Alert data is always "contaminated", and there's no way to remove the "bad" part of the data from the "good" part.

Quote:


Can we just correctly calculate last weeks weekly number from this weeks SI and YTD numbers? Assuming those numbers at least are incorporating the corrected final numbers for last week and this weeks first alert numbers?

No can do. We don't really know what the real numbers are; all we have are ratios, and while we can work some minor miracles with those ratios (as you've seen), the limitation is that we don't really know what the actual volumes are, and that we are subject to whatever error is inherent to the data.

Quote:


Grubert; Any chance at all at getting the corrected final numbers from last week as an update to the first alert numbers?

This would be the best possible outcome. What we really need are the finalized ratios, with the 100:xx.xx precision. Those numbers give us the most accurate projections. We're losing a ton of detail with the new way HMM is posting their data, and I'm very concerned about the accuracy of our projections at this point (for a HT analogy, what we're looking at now is a 480i image with EE instead of the full 1080p).
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post #5427 of 9375 Old 04-22-2007, 10:50 PM
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Originally Posted by george king View Post

Max,



I think you are wrong, because the importance isnt the Chinese players per se, but rather that Walmart supposedly placed an order for 2 million players. Do they have Walmart in England? Walmart has tremendous clout and often dictates what major companies do because of their sheer purchasing power. If they put their money behind HD DVD this will delay the outcome until Walmart decides whether the experiment was a success or not.

We have Tesco, which is pretty much the same. Wal-Mart bought a lesser chain called Asda, but they never got very big here (I mean they are still number two, but a long way off and they are about to lose their number two position to Sainsbury's who are similar to Tesco in stature) due to the hostility of foreign owned companies by some people and that Asda is a very terrible place to shop.

People over-estimate the so-called Wal-Mart effect, yeah they are good at squeezing suppliers but at the end of the day something is going to cost however much it costs, nothing Wal-Mart can do about that. Also the numbers are pretty pitiful, to a company the size of Wal-Mart $100m is not a huge investment, they make more than that in profit in a couple of days.

But that is a whole other issue, and so are these Chinese players which I would rather not bring into the discussion, last time it was disastrous.
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post #5428 of 9375 Old 04-22-2007, 11:16 PM
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Icemage View Post

Indeed. Actually, both numbers for BR and HD on Apr 1 seem overly high to me, based on past figures on big release dates like The Departed and Casino Royale. This is really why I think the 11-12K worth of "missing" sales most likely reappeared in this period. It's possible that I am wrong and that those numbers remain unaccounted for, but that seems unlikely this many weeks out unless the same retailers continue to be late with reporting.


There's no question about it. It's definitely a problem, and with Home Media Magazine dropping down to only full percentages, the problem gets worse. It's getting increasingly hard to read the tea leaves even with my spreadsheet.


Neither of these is possible to do. First Alert data is always "contaminated", and there's no way to remove the "bad" part of the data from the "good" part.


No can do. We don't really know what the real numbers are; all we have are ratios, and while we can work some minor miracles with those ratios (as you've seen), the limitation is that we don't really know what the actual volumes are, and that we are subject to whatever error is inherent to the data.


This would be the best possible outcome. What we really need are the finalized ratios, with the 100:xx.xx precision. Those numbers give us the most accurate projections. We're losing a ton of detail with the new way HMM is posting their data, and I'm very concerned about the accuracy of our projections at this point (for a HT analogy, what we're looking at now is a 480i image with EE instead of the full 1080p).


Nuts.

Thanks for the detailed explanation.

I am beginning to think that, with the original final weekly numbers and your hard work, we were getting too close for comfort in calculating out those expensive numbers that Nielson expects others to pay nicely for.

Someone didn't like that.

Maybe Grubert's contacts could share a little light on the situation?

That may be why HMM then switched to first alert numbers besides the fact they could publish the data a week sooner.

Now Nielson (or to be more cynical a non neutral studio) asked them to further deliberately complicate or fuzz up our efforts by rounding the numbers up and only giving us first alert data.

Me thinks they really don't want us to know the true numbers with any accuracy. , especially the actual volumes involved in their capture rates

those greedy bastards...

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post #5429 of 9375 Old 04-23-2007, 12:32 AM - Thread Starter
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Is Six weeks several enough for you?


Interestingly, that's the third time you post that pic in the last two pages.

Even more interestingly, your graph stops on a high point and right before a dip. This is the most current one (grabbed from hdgamedb 10 minutes ago):


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post #5430 of 9375 Old 04-23-2007, 01:19 AM - Thread Starter
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Your use of this term [rumor] indicates a possible bias, not quite in sync with your signature.

Then CD Freaks are biased too.

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I agree that the detailed discussion of the Wal-Mart buy of 2 Million HD DVD players should be discussed somewhere else.

I think this is the more comprehensive thread on the subject:

http://www.avsforum.com/avs-vb/showthread.php?t=836632

True. I hadn't posted it only because it's on the "if you're not here for HD DVD, move on" section of the forum.

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It is only relevant in this thread if it has a within the context of how the possibility of greater HD DVD hardware may be affecting the studios and consumers decision making processes. Those decisions start with the sales numbers and trends reported and analyzed in this thread, but projected over what what would be the expected in sales based on the anticipated hardware installed base.

Of course, but you're entering the Aristotelian realm of potentiality as opposed to actuality.

Personally, I think it would be more interesting to ascertain the effect of the new, lower entry price for HD DVD. MSRP of the A2 has been $399 since April 1. That is something that really happened.

To what extent did new player owners contribute to April sales? My general impression, not much. As has been said, the whole catalog is new for new owners. So one could expect sales of high-tier older titles to spike. However, we aren't seeing that. The Good Shepherd is top HD DVD again. Batman Begins is #2, but it has usually been in the top 3 for quite a while. I'm surprised not to see King Kong or The Bourne Supremacy there.

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